共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Rajesh Nune Biju A. George Andrew W. Western Kaushal K. Garg Sreenath Dixit Ragab Ragab 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14305
The clearest signs of hydrologic change can be observed from the trends in streamflow and groundwater levels in a catchment. During 1980–2007, significant declines in streamflow (−3.03 mm/year) and groundwater levels (−0.22 m/year) were observed in Himayat Sagar (HS) catchment, India. We examined the degree to which hydrologic changes observed in the HS catchment can be attributed to various internal and external drivers of change (climatic and anthropogenic changes). This study used an investigative approach to attribute hydrologic changes. First, it involves to develop a model and test its ability to predict hydrologic trends in a catchment that has undergone significant changes. Second, it examines the relative importance of different causes of change on the hydrologic response. The analysis was carried out using Modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model coupled with a lumped groundwater model for each sub- catchment. The model results indicated that the decline in potential evapotranspiration (PET) appears to be partially offset by a significant response to changes in rainfall. Measures that enhance recharge, such as watershed hydrological structures, have had limited success in terms of reducing impacts on the catchment-scale water balance. Groundwater storage has declined at a rate of 5 mm/y due to impact of land use changes and this was replaced by a net addition of 2 mm/y by hydrological structures. The impact of land use change on streamflow is an order of magnitude larger than the impact of hydrological structures and about is 2.5 times higher in terms of groundwater impact. Model results indicate that both exogenous and endogenous changes can have large impacts on catchment hydrology and should be considered together. The proposed comprehensive framework and approach demonstrated here is valuable in attributing trends in streamflow and groundwater levels to catchment climatic and anthropogenic changes. 相似文献
3.
M. P. Clark D. E. Rupp R. A. Woods H. J. Tromp‐van Meerveld N. E. Peters J. E. Freer 《水文研究》2009,23(2):311-319
The purpose of this paper is to identify simple connections between observations of hydrological processes at the hillslope scale and observations of the response of watersheds following rainfall, with a view to building a parsimonious model of catchment processes. The focus is on the well‐studied Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW), Georgia, USA. Recession analysis of discharge Q shows that while the relationship between dQ/dt and Q is approximately consistent with a linear reservoir for the hillslope, there is a deviation from linearity that becomes progressively larger with increasing spatial scale. To account for these scale differences conceptual models of streamflow recession are defined at both the hillslope scale and the watershed scale, and an assessment made as to whether models at the hillslope scale can be aggregated to be consistent with models at the watershed scale. Results from this study show that a model with parallel linear reservoirs provides the most plausible explanation (of those tested) for both the linear hillslope response to rainfall and non‐linear recession behaviour observed at the watershed outlet. In this model each linear reservoir is associated with a landscape type. The parallel reservoir model is consistent with both geochemical analyses of hydrological flow paths and water balance estimates of bedrock recharge. Overall, this study demonstrates that standard approaches of using recession analysis to identify the functional form of storage–discharge relationships identify model structures that are inconsistent with field evidence, and that recession analysis at multiple spatial scales can provide useful insights into catchment behaviour. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Gopal Penny Veena Srinivasan R. Apoorva Kirubaharan Jeremiah Joshua Peschel Sierra Young Sally Thompson 《水文研究》2020,34(8):1981-1995
Human activities have resulted in rapid hydrological change around the world, in many cases producing shifts in the dominant hydrological processes, confounding predictions, and complicating effective management and planning. Identifying and characterizing such changes in hydrological processes is therefore a globally relevant problem, one that is particularly challenging in sparsely monitored environments. We develop a novel, process-based approach for attribution of hydrological change in such scenarios and apply the approach to the TG Halli watershed outside Bangalore, India, where streamflow has declined considerably over the last 50 years. The approach consists of (a) employing a range of field instrumentation and experiments to identify contemporary streamflow generation mechanisms, (b) using these observations to constrain our understanding and generate hypotheses pertaining to historical changes, and (c) evaluating these hypotheses with a range of evidence including proxies for historical hydrological processes. The body of evidence in the TG Halli watershed indicates the historical presence and subsequent loss of a shallow groundwater table that previously discharged to the stream, meaning that groundwater depletion is the most likely driver of streamflow decline. These findings present a viable path towards improved predictions of future water resources and sustainable water management within the watershed. Our process-based approach to attribution has the potential to improve understanding of human-driven hydrological change in regions with poor monitoring of hydrological systems. 相似文献
5.
Performance of process‐based hydrological models is usually assessed through comparison between simulated and measured streamflow. Although necessary, this analysis is not sufficient to estimate the quality and realism of the modelling since streamflow integrates all processes of the water cycle, including intermediate production or redistribution processes such as snowmelt or groundwater flow. Assessing the performance of hydrological models in simulating accurately intermediate processes is often difficult and requires heavy experimental investments. In this study, conceptual hydrological modelling (using SWAT) of a semi‐arid mountainous watershed in the High Atlas in Morocco is attempted. Our objective is to analyse whether good intermediate processes simulation is reached when global‐satisfying streamflow simulation is possible. First, parameters presenting intercorrelation issues are identified: from the soil, the groundwater and, to a lesser extent, from the snow. Second, methodologies are developed to retrieve information from accessible intermediate hydrological processes. A geochemical method is used to quantify the contribution of a superficial and a deep reservoir to streamflow. It is shown that, for this specific process, the model formalism is not adapted to our study area and thus leads to poor simulation results. A remote‐sensing methodology is proposed to retrieve the snow surfaces. Comparison with the simulation shows that this process can be satisfyingly simulated by the model. The multidisciplinary approach adopted in this study, although supported by the hydrological community, is still uncommon. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
We compared streamflow in basins under the combined impacts of an upland dam and groundwater pumping withdrawals, by examining streamflow in the presence and absence of each impact. As a qualitative analysis, inter‐watershed streamflow comparisons were performed for several rivers flowing into the east side of the Central Valley, CA. Results suggest that, in the absence of upland dams supporting large reservoirs, some reaches of these rivers might develop ephemeral streamflow in late summer. As a quantitative analysis, we conducted a series of streamflow/groundwater simulations (using MODFLOW‐2000 plus the streamflow routing package, SFR1) for a representative hypothetical watershed, with an upland dam and groundwater pumping in the downstream basin, under humid, semi‐arid, and arid conditions. As a result of including the impact of groundwater pumping, post‐dam removal simulated streamflow was significantly less than natural streamflow. The model predicts extensive ephemeral conditions in the basin during September for both the arid and semi‐arid cases. The model predicts continued perennial conditions in the humid case, but spatially weighted, average streamflow of only 71% of natural September streamflow, as a result of continued pumping after dam removal. Published in 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Z. X. Xu K. Ito S. Liao L. Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(5):433-448
An attempt of using stochastic hydrologic technique to assess the intrinsic risk of reservoir operation is made in this study.
A stochastic simulation model for reservoir operation is developed. The model consists of three components: synthetic generation
model for streamflow and sediment sequences, one-dimensional delta deposit model for sediment transport processes in reservoirs,
and simulation model for reservoir operation. This kind of integrated simulation model can be used to simulate not only the
inflow uncertainty of streamflow and sedimentation, but also the variation in operation rules of reservoirs. It is herein
used for the risk assessment of a reservoir, and the simulation is performed for different operation scenarios. Simulation
for the 100-year period of sediment transport and deposition in the river-reservoir system indicates that the navigation risk
is much higher than that of hydropower generation or sediment deposition in the reservoir. The risk of sediment deposition
at the river-section near the backwater profile is also high thereby the navigation at the river-segment near this profile
takes high risk because of inadequate navigation depth. 相似文献
8.
Kaushal K. Garg Louise Karlberg Jennie Barron Suhas P. Wani Johan Rockstrom 《水文研究》2012,26(3):387-404
The paper describes a hydrological model for agricultural water intervention in a community watershed at Kothapally in India, developed through integrated management and a consortium approach. The impacts of various soil and water management interventions in the watershed are compared to no‐intervention during a 30‐year simulation period by application of the calibrated and validated ARCSWAT 2005 (Version 2.1.4a) modelling tool. Kothapally receives, on average, 800 mm rainfall in the monsoon period. 72% of total rainfall is converted as evaporation and transpiration (ET), 20% is stored by groundwater aquifer, and 8% exported as outflow from the watershed boundary in current water interventions. ET, groundwater recharge and outflow under no‐intervention conditions are found to be 64, 9, and 19%, respectively. Check dams helped in storing water for groundwater recharge, which can be used for irrigation, as well minimising soil loss. In situ water management practices improved the infiltration capacity and water holding capacity of the soil, which resulted in increased water availability by 10–30% and better crop yields compared to no‐intervention. Water outflows from the developed watershed were more than halved compared to no‐intervention, indicating potentially large negative downstream impacts if these systems were to be implemented on a larger scale. On the other hand, in the watershed development program, sediment loads to the streams were less than one‐tenth. It can be concluded that the hydrological impacts of large‐scale implementation of agricultural water interventions are significant. They result in improved rain‐fed agriculture and improved productivity and livelihood of farmers in upland areas while also addressing the issues of poverty, equity, and gender in watersheds. There is a need for case‐specific studies of such hydrological impacts along with other impacts in terms of equity, gender, sustainability, and development at the mesoscale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Hydrological analysis of the Upper Tiber River Basin,Central Italy: a watershed modelling approach 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The quantification of the various components of hydrological processes in a watershed remains a challenging topic as the hydrological system is altered by internal and external drivers. Watershed models have become essential tools to understand the behaviour of a catchment under dynamic processes. In this study, a physically based watershed model called Soil Water Assessment Tool was used to understand the hydrologic behaviour of the Upper Tiber River Basin, Central Italy. The model was successfully calibrated and validated using observed weather and flow data for the period of 1963–1970 and 1971–1978, respectively. Eighteen parameters were evaluated, and the model showed high relative sensitivity to groundwater flow parameters than the surface flow parameters. An analysis of annual hydrological water balance was performed for the entire upper Tiber watershed and selected subbasins. The overall behaviour of the watershed was represented by three categories of parameters governing surface flow, subsurface flow and whole basin response. The base flow contribution has shown that 60% of the streamflow is from shallow aquifer in the subbasins. The model evaluation statistics that evaluate the agreement between the simulated and the observed streamflow at the outlet of a watershed and other three different subbasins has shown a coefficient of determination (R2) from 0.68 to 0.81 and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) between 0.51 and 0.8 for the validation period. The components of the hydrologic cycle showed variation for dry and wet periods within the watershed for the same parameter sets. On the basis of the calibrated parameters, the model can be used for the prediction of the impact of climate and land use changes and water resources planning and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Streamflow drought time series forecasting: a case study in a small watershed in North West Spain 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Cristina Fernández José A. Vega Teresa Fonturbel Enrique Jiménez 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(8):1063-1070
Drought is a climatic event that can cause significant damage both in natural environment and in human lives. Drought forecasting
is an important issue in water resource planning. Due to the stochastic behaviour of droughts, a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive
integrated moving average model was applied to forecast monthly streamflow in a small watershed in Galicia (NW Spain). A better
streamflow forecast obtained when the Martone index was included in the model as explanatory variable. After forecasting 12
leading month streamflow, three drought thresholds: streamflow mean, monthly streamflow mean and standardized streamflow index
were chosen. Both observed and forecasted streamflow showed no drought evidence in this basin. 相似文献
11.
Several studies have shown that the dominant streamflow generation mechanism in a river basin can leave distinct geomorphological signatures in basin topography. In particular, it has been suggested previously that basins generated by groundwater discharge tend to have a larger hypsometric integral than surface runoff basins because fluvial erosion is more focused in the valleys where groundwater discharge tends to occur. In this analysis, we aim to clarify this relationship by developing an alternative method to quantify the effects of streamflow generation mechanisms on basin hypsometry and by using a numerical model that can generate streamflow by different processes to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the hydrological and geomorphological properties of the basin. The model results suggest that the hypsometric characteristics that are usually associated with groundwater discharge basins, such as a larger hypsometric integral, occur primarily when drainage networks are still advancing in the watershed. During later stages of development, an additional factor such as lithological controls or a distinct geomorphological process would be needed to preserve these features. The model results also show that the hypsometric effects are stronger when the parameters of the fluvial erosion process promote the influence of small discharge rates. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Watershed delineation is a required step when conducting any spatially distributed hydrological modelling. Automated approaches are often proposed to delineate a watershed based on a river network extracted from the digital elevation model (DEM) using the deterministic eight‐neighbour (D8) method. However, a realistic river network cannot be derived from conventional DEM processing methods for a large flat area with a complex network of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and polders, referred to as a plain river network region (PRNR). In this study, a new approach, which uses both hydrographic features and DEM, has been developed to address the problems of watershed delineation in PRNR. It extracts the river nodes and determines the flow directions of the river network based on a vector‐based hydrographic feature data model. The river network, lakes, reservoirs, and polders are then used to modify the flow directions of grid cells determined by D8 approach. The watershed is eventually delineated into four types of catchments including lakes, reservoirs, polders, and overland catchments based on the flow direction matrix and the location of river nodes. Multiple flow directions of grid cells are represented using a multi‐direction encoding method, and multiple outflows of catchments are also reflected in the topology of catchments. The proposed approach is applied to the western Taihu watershed in China. Comparisons between the results obtained from the D8 approach, the ‘stream burning’ approach, and those from the proposed approach clearly demonstrate an improvement of the new approach over the conventional approaches. This approach will benefit the development of distributed hydrological models in PRNR for the consideration of different types and multiple inlets and outlets of catchments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
Several parts of the globe including Southeast North America, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, Australia, and China are often hit by hurricanes and tropical storms (HTSs), which can deliver a large amount of rainfall within a period of a few days. Although HTSs are mostly studied as disaster agents, considering that they occur during the period when water supply systems are generally depleted, it is important to ascertain their potential contributions toward sustaining water supply. Using the Lake Michie–Little River reservoir system that supplies water to the city of Durham (North Carolina) as a representative test case, we implemented an integrated watershed and reservoir management model, supported by publicly available observations, to evaluate the extent to which HTSs impact water storages. Results indicate that HTSs can have a significant impact on reservoir water storage, with their effects being felt for more than a year for some storms. The impact on reservoir water storage is identified to be primarily controlled by 3 factors, namely, streamflow response size from HTSs, storage in the reservoir right before the event, and streamflow succeeding the event response to HTS (henceforth referred as postevent streamflow). Although the impact of streamflow response size on water storage is generally proportional to its magnitude, initial water storage in the reservoir and postevent streamflow have a nonmonotonic influence on water storage. As all the 3 identified controls are a function of antecedent hydrologic conditions and meteorological forcings, these 2 factors indirectly influence the impact of HTS on water storage in a reservoir. The identification of controlling factors and assessment of their influence on reservoir response will further facilitate implementation of more accurate estimation and prediction frameworks for within‐year reservoir operations. 相似文献
14.
Alexandre Cunha Costa Saskia Foerster José Carlos de Araújo Axel Bronstert 《水文研究》2013,27(7):1046-1060
Scarcity of hydrological data, especially streamflow discharge and groundwater level series, restricts the understanding of channel transmission losses (TL) in drylands. Furthermore, the lack of information on spatial river dynamics encompasses high uncertainty on TL analysis in large rivers. The objective of this study was to combine the information from streamflow and groundwater level series with multi‐temporal satellite data to derive a hydrological concept of TL for a reach of the Middle Jaguaribe River (MJR) in semi‐arid north‐eastern Brazil. Based on this analysis, we proposed strategies for its modelling and simulation. TL take place in an alluvium, where river and groundwater can be considered to be hydraulically connected. Most losses certainly infiltrated only through streambed and levees and not through the flood plains, as could be shown by satellite image analysis. TL events whose input river flows were smaller than a threshold did not reach the outlet of the MJR. TL events whose input flows were higher than this threshold reached the outlet losing on average 30% of their input. During the dry seasons (DS) and at the beginning of rainy seasons (DS/BRS), no river flow is expected for pre‐events, and events have vertical infiltration into the alluvium. At the middle and the end of the rainy seasons (MRS/ERS), river flow sustained by base flow occurs before/after events, and lateral infiltration into the alluvium plays a major role. Thus, the MJR shifts from being a losing river at DS/BRS to become a losing/gaining (mostly losing) river at MRS/ERS. A model of this system has to include the coupling of river and groundwater flow processes linked by a leakage approach. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
Agricultural pollutant runoff is a major source of water contamination in California's Sacramento River watershed where 8500 km2 of agricultural land influences water quality. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrology, sediment, nitrate and pesticide transport components were assessed for the Sacramento River watershed. To represent flood conveyance in the area, the model was improved by implementing a flood routing algorithm. Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses and multi‐objective calibration were incorporated into the model application for predicting streamflow, sediment, nitrate and pesticides (chlorpyrifos and diazinon) at multiple watershed sites from 1992 to 2008. Most of the observed data were within the 95% uncertainty interval, indicating that the SWAT simulations were capturing the uncertainties that existed, such as model simplification, observed data errors and lack of agricultural management data. The monthly Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients at the watershed outlet ranged from 0.48 to 0.82, indicating that the model was able to successfully predict streamflow and agricultural pollutant transport after calibration. Predicted sediment loads were highly correlated to streamflow, whereas nitrate, chlorpyrifos and diazinon were moderately correlated to streamflow. This indicates that timing of agricultural management operations plays a role in agricultural pollutant runoff. Best management practices, such as pesticide use limits during wet seasons, could improve water quality in the Sacramento River watershed. The calibrated model establishes a modelling framework for further studies of hydrology, water quality and ecosystem protection in the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
Nancy England April L. James Krystopher J. Chutko Richard S. Pyrce Huaxia Yao 《水文研究》2019,33(6):905-919
Stable water isotope surveys have increasingly been integrated into river basins studies, but fewer have used them to evaluate impact of hydropower regulation. This study applies hydrologic and water isotope survey approaches to a Canadian Shield river basin with both regulated and natural flows. Historical streamflow records were used to evaluate the influence of three hydroelectric reservoirs and unregulated portions of the basin on downstream flows and changes in water level management implemented after an extreme flood year (1979). In 2013, water isotope surveys of surface and source waters (e.g., rainfall, groundwater, snowmelt) were conducted to examine spatial and temporal variation in contributions to river flow. Seasonal changes in relative groundwater contribution were assessed using a water‐isotope mass balance approach. Within the basin, two regulated reservoirs exhibited inverted hydrographs with augmented winter flows, whereas a third exhibited a hydrograph dominated by spring snowmelt. In 2013, spatial variation in rain‐on‐snow and air temperatures resulted in a critical lag in snowmelt initiation in the southern and northern portions of the basin resulting in a dispersed, double peak spring hydrograph, contrasting with 1979 when a combination of rain‐on‐snow and coincident snowmelt led to the highest flood on record. Although eastern basin reservoirs become seasonally enriched in δ18O and δ2H values, unregulated western basin flows remain less variable due to groundwater driven baseflow with increasing influence downstream. Combined analysis of historical streamflow (e.g., flood of 1979, drought of 2010) and the 2013 water isotope surveys illustrate extreme meteorological conditions that current management activities are unable to prevent. In this study, the influence of evaporative fractionation on large surface water reservoirs provides important evidence of streamflow partitioning, illustrating the value of stable water isotope tracers for study of larger catchments. 相似文献
17.
Hydrological and statistical models are playing an increasing role in hydrological forecasting, particularly for river basins with data of different temporal scales. In this study, statistical models, e.g. artificial neural networks, adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, genetic programming, least squares support vector machine, multiple linear regression, were developed, based on parametric optimization methods such as particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA), and data-preprocessing techniques such as wavelet decomposition (WD) for river flow modelling using daily streamflow data from four hydrological stations for a period of 1954–2009. These models were used for 1-, 3- and 5-day streamflow forecasting and the better model was used for uncertainty evaluation using bootstrap resampling method. Meanwhile, a simple conceptual hydrological model GR4J was used to evaluate parametric uncertainty based on generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method. Results indicated that: (1) GA and PSO did not help improve the forecast performance of the model. However, the hybrid model with WD significantly improved the forecast performance; (2) the hybrid model with WD as a data preprocessing procedure can clarify hydrological effects of water reservoirs and can capture peak high/low flow changes; (3) Forecast accuracy of data-driven models is significantly influenced by the availability of streamflow data. More human interferences from the upper to the lower East River basin can help to introduce greater uncertainty in streamflow forecasts; (4) The structure of GR4J may introduce larger parametric uncertainty at the Longchuan station than at the Boluo station in the East river basin. This study provides a theoretical background for data-driven model-based streamflow forecasting and a comprehensive view about data and parametric uncertainty in data-scarce river basins. 相似文献
18.
Conceptual modelling to assess the influence of hydro-climatic variability on runoff processes in data scarce semi-arid Andean catchments 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Using hydro-meteorological time series of 50 years and in situ measurements, the dominant runoff processes in perennial Andean headwater catchments in Chile were determined using the hydrological model HBV light. First, cluster analysis was used to identify dry, wet and intermediate years. From these, sub-periods were identified with contrasting seasonal climatic influences on streamflow. By calibrating the model across different periods, impacts on model performance, parameter sensitivity and identifiability were investigated, providing insights into differences in hydrological processes. The modelling approach suggested that, independently of a dry or wet period of calibration, the streamflow response is mostly consistent with flux from groundwater storage, while only a small fraction comes from direct routing of snowmelt. The variation of model parameters, such as the groundwater rate coefficient, was found to be consistent with differing recharge in wet and dry years. The resulting snowmelt–groundwater model is a realistic hypothesis of the hydrological operation of such complex, data scarce and semi-arid Andean catchments. This model may also be a useful tool for predictions of seasonal water availability and a basis for further field studies. 相似文献
19.
Jianhui Wei Ningpeng Dong Benjamin Fersch Joël Arnault Sven Wagner Patrick Laux Zhenyu Zhang Qianya Yang Chuanguo Yang Shasha Shang Lu Gao Zhongbo Yu Harald Kunstmann 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14341
The regional terrestrial water cycle is strongly altered by human activities. Among them, reservoir regulation is a way to spatially and temporally allocate water resources in a basin for multi-purposes. However, it is still not sufficiently understood how reservoir regulation modifies the regional terrestrial- and subsequently, the atmospheric water cycle. To address this question, the representation of reservoir regulation into the terrestrial component of fully coupled regional Earth system models is required. In this study, an existing process-based reservoir network module is implemented into NOAH-HMS, that is, the terrestrial component of an atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system, namely, the WRF-HMS. It allows to quantitatively differentiate role of reservoir regulation and of groundwater feedback in a simulated ground-soil-vegetation continuum. Our study focuses on the Poyang Lake basin, where the largest freshwater lake of China and reservoirs of different sizes are located. As compared to streamflow observations, the newly extended NOAH-HMS slightly improves the streamflow and streamflow duration curves simulation for the Poyang Lake basin for the period 1979–1986. The inclusion of reservoir regulation leads to major changes in the simulated groundwater recharges and evaporation from reservoirs at local scale, but has minor effects on the simulated soil moisture and surface runoff at basin scale. The performed groundwater feedback sensitivity analysis shows that the strength of the groundwater feedback is not altered by the consideration of reservoir regulation. Furthermore, both reservoir regulation and groundwater feedback modify the partitioning of the simulated evapotranspiration, thus affecting the atmospheric water cycle in the Poyang Lake region. This finding motivates future research with our extended fully coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system by the community. 相似文献
20.
Flood frequency under the influence of trends in the Pearl River basin,China: changing patterns,causes and implications 
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下载免费PDF全文 Using a nonstationary flood frequency model, this study investigates the impact of trends on the estimation of flood frequencies and flood magnification factors. Analysis of annual peak streamflow data from 28 hydrological stations across the Pearl River basin, China, shows that: (1) northeast parts of the West and the North River basins are dominated by increasing annual peak streamflow, whereas decreasing trends of annual peak streamflow are prevailing in other regions of the Pearl River basin; (2) trends significantly impact the estimation of flood frequencies. The changing frequency of the same flood magnitude is related to the changing magnitude or significance/insignificance of trends, larger increasing frequency can be detected for stations with significant increasing trends of annual peak streamflow and vice versa, and smaller increasing magnitude for stations with not significant increasing annual peak streamflow, pointing to the critical impact of trends on estimation of flood frequencies; (3) larger‐than‐1 flood magnification factors are observed mainly in the northeast parts of the West River basin and in the North River basin, implying magnifying flood processes in these regions and a higher flood risk in comparison with design flood‐control standards; and (4) changes in hydrological extremes result from the integrated influence of human activities and climate change. Generally, magnifying flood regimes in the northeast Pearl River basin and in the North River basin are mainly the result of intensifying precipitation regime; smaller‐than‐1 flood magnification factors along the mainstream of the West River basin and also in the East River basin are the result of hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献