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1.
The effects of large-scale interventions in the North Passage of the Yangtze Estuary (the Deep Waterway Project, DWP) on the along-channel flow structure, suspended sediment distribution and its transport along the main channel of this passage are investigated. The focus is explaining the changes in net sediment transport in terms of physical mechanisms. For this, data of flow and suspended sediment concentration (SSC), which were collected simultaneously at several locations and at different depths along the main channel of the North Passage prior to and after the engineering works, were harmonically analyzed to assess the relative importance of the transport components related to residual (time-mean) flow and various tidal pumping mechanisms. Expressions for main residual flow components were derived using theoretical principles. The SSC revealed that the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) was intensified due to the interventions, especially in wet seasons, and an upstream shift and extension of the ETM zone occurred. The amplitude of the M 2 tidal current considerably increased, and the residual flow structure was significantly altered by engineering works. Prior to the DWP, the residual flow structure was that of a gravitational circulation in both seasons, while after the DWP, there was seaward flow throughout the channel during the wet season. The analysis of net sediment transport reveals that during wet seasons and prior to the DWP, the sediment trapping was due to asymmetric tidal mixing, gravitational circulation, tidal rectification, and M 2 tidal pumping, while after the DWP, the trapping was primarily due to seaward transport caused by Stokes return flow and fresh water discharge and landward transport due to M 2 tidal pumping and asymmetric tidal mixing. During dry seasons, prior to the DWP, trapping of sediment at the bottom relied on landward transports due to Stokes transport, M 4 tidal pumping, asymmetric tidal mixing, and gravitational circulation, while after the DWP the sediment trapping was caused by M 2 tidal pumping, Stokes transport, asymmetric tidal mixing, tidal rectification, and gravitational circulation.  相似文献   

2.
We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.  相似文献   

3.
Unloaded natural rock masses are known to generate seismic signals (Green et al., 2006; Hainzl et al., 2006; Husen et al., 2007; Kraft et al., 2006). Following a 1,000 m3 mass failure into the Mediterranean Sea, centimeter-wide tensile cracks were observed to have developed on top of an unstable segment of the coastal cliff. Nanoseismic monitoring techniques (Wust-Bloch and Joswig, 2006; Joswig, 2008), which function as a seismic microscope for extremely weak seismic events, were applied to verify whether brittle failure is still generated within this unconsolidated sandstone mass and to determine whether it can be detected. Sixteen days after the initial mass failure, three small-aperture sparse arrays (Seismic Navigation Systems-SNS) were deployed on top of this 40-m high shoreline cliff. This paper analyzes dozens of spiky nanoseismic (?2.2 ≥ M L ≥ ?3.4) signals recorded over one night in continuous mode (at 200 Hz) at very short slant distances (3–67 m). Waveform characterization by sonogram analysis (Joswig, 2008) shows that these spiky signals are all short in duration (>0.5 s). Most of their signal energy is concentrated in the 10–75 Hz frequency range and the waveforms display high signal similarity. The detection threshold of the data set reaches M L ?3.4 at 15 m and M L ?2.7 at 67 m. The spatial distribution of source signals shows 3-D clustering within 10 m from the cliff edge. The time distribution of M L magnitude does not display any decay pattern of M L over time. This corroborates an unusual event decay over time (modified Omori’s law), whereby an initial quiet period is followed by regained activity, which then fades again. The polarization of maximal waveform amplitude was used to estimate spatial stress distribution. The orientation of ellipses displaying maximal signal energy is consistent with that of tensile cracks observed in the field and agrees with rock mechanics predictions. The M L– surface rupture length relationship displayed by our data fits a constant-slope extrapolation of empirical data collected by Wells and Coppersmith (1994) for normal fault features at much larger scale. Signal characterization and location as well as the absence of direct anthropogenic noise sources near the monitoring site, all indicate that these nanoseismic signals are generated by brittle failure within the top section of the cliff. The atypical event decay over time that was observed suggests that the cliff material is undergoing post-collapse bulk strain accommodation. This feasibility study demonstrates the potential of nanoseismic monitoring in rapidly detecting, locating and analyzing brittle failure generated within unconsolidated material before total collapse occurs.  相似文献   

4.
In a tidal channel with adjacent tidal flats, along–channel momentum is dissipated on the flats during rising tides. This leads to a sink of along–channel momentum. Using a perturbative method, it is shown that the momentum sink slightly reduces the M2 amplitude of both the sea surface elevation and current velocity and favours flood dominant tides. These changes in tidal characteristics (phase and amplitude of sea surface elevations and currents) are noticeable if widths of tidal flats are at least of the same order as the channel width, and amplitudes and gradients of along–channel velocity are large. The M2 amplitudes are reduced because stagnant water flows from the flats into the channel, thereby slowing down the current. The M4 amplitudes and phases change because the momentum sink acts as an advective term during the fall of the tide, such a term generates flood dominant currents. For a prototype embayment that resembles the Marsdiep–Vlie double–inlet system of the Western Wadden Sea, it is found that for both the sea surface elevation and current velocity, including the momentum sink, lead to a decrease of approximately 2% in M2 amplitudes and an increase of approximately 25% in M4 amplitudes. As a result, the net import of coarse sediment is increased by approximately 35%, while the transport of fine sediment is hardly influenced by the momentum sink. For the Marsdiep–Vlie system, the M2 sea surface amplitude obtained from the idealised model is similar to that computed with a realistic three–dimensional numerical model whilst the comparison with regard to M4 improves if momentum sink is accounted for.  相似文献   

5.
Over the past 30 years, reclamation projects and related changes have impacted the hydrodynamics and sediment transport in the Bohai Sea. Three-dimensional tidal current models of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea were constructed using the MIKE 3 model. We used a refined grid to simulate and analyze the effects of changes in coastline, depth, topography, reclamation, the Yellow River estuary, and coastal erosion on tidal systems, tide levels, tidal currents, residual currents, and tidal fluxes. The simulation results show that the relative change in the amplitude of the half-day tide is greater than that of the full-day tide. The changes in the tidal amplitudes of M2, S2, K1, and O1 caused by coastline changes accounted for 27.76–99.07% of the overall change in amplitude from 1987 to 2016, and water depth changes accounted for 0.93–72.24% of the overall change. The dominant factor driving coastline changes is reclamation, accounting for 99.55–99.91% of the amplitude changes in tidal waves, followed by coastal erosion, accounting for 0.05–0.40% of the tidal wave amplitude changes. The contribution of changes in the Yellow River estuary to tidal wave amplitude changes is small, accounting for 0.01–0.12% of the amplitude change factor. The change in the highest tide level (HTL) is mainly related to the amplitude change, and the correlation with the phase change is small. The dominant factor responsible for the change in the HTL is the tide amplitude change in M2, followed by S2, whereas the influence of the K1 and O1 tides on the change in the HTL is small. Reclamation resulted in a decrease in the vertical average maximum flow velocity (VVAM) in the Bohai Sea. Shallower water depths have led to an increase in the VVAM; deeper water depths have led to a decrease in the maximum flow velocity. The absolute value of the maximum flow velocity gradually decreases from the surface to the bottom, but the relative change value is basically constant. The changes in the tidal dynamics of the Bohai Sea are proportional to the degree of change in the coastline. The maximum and minimum changes in the tidal flux appear in Laizhou Bay (P-LZB) and Liaodong Bay (P-LDB), respectively. The changes in the tidal flux are related to the change in the area of the bay. Due to the reduced tidal flux, the water exchange capacity of the Bohai Sea has decreased, impacting the ecological environment of the Bohai Sea. Strictly controlling the scale of reclamation are important measures for reducing the decline in the water exchange capacity of the Bohai Sea and the deterioration of its ecological environment.  相似文献   

6.
We investigated frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) of acoustic emissions (AE) occurring near an active mining front in a South African gold mine, using a catalog developed from an AE network, which is capable of detecting AEs down to M W  ?5. When records of blasts were removed, FMDs of AEs obeyed a Gutenberg?Richter law with similar b values, not depending on post-blasting time from the initial 1-min interval through more than 30 h. This result denies a suggestion in a previous study (Richardson and Jordan Bull Seismol Soc Am, 92:1766–1782, 2002) that new fractures generated by blasting disturb the size distribution of background events, which they interpreted as slip events on existing weak planes. Our AE catalog showed that the GR law with b ～ 1.2 was valid between M W  ?3.7 and 0 for AEs around the mining front. Further, using the mine’s seismic catalog, which covers a longer time period of the same area, we could extend the validity range of the GR law with the same b value up to M W 1.  相似文献   

7.
Tsunamis are most destructive at near to regional distances, arriving within 20–30 min after a causative earthquake; effective early warning at these distances requires notification within 15 min or less. The size and impact of a tsunami also depend on sea floor displacement, which is related to the length, L, width, W, mean slip, D, and depth, z, of the earthquake rupture. Currently, the primary seismic discriminant for tsunami potential is the centroid-moment tensor magnitude, M w CMT , representing the product LWD and estimated via an indirect inversion procedure. However, the obtained M w CMT and the implied LWD value vary with rupture depth, earth model, and other factors, and are only available 20–30 min or more after an earthquake. The use of more direct discriminants for tsunami potential could avoid these problems and aid in effective early warning, especially for near to regional distances. Previously, we presented a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using two, simple measurements on P-wave seismograms—the predominant period on velocity records, T d , and the likelihood, T 50 Ex , that the high-frequency, apparent rupture-duration, T 0, exceeds 50–55 s. We have shown that T d and T 0 are related to the critical rupture parameters L, W, D, and z, and that either of the period–duration products T d T 0 or T d T 50 Ex gives more information on tsunami impact and size than M w CMT , M wp, and other currently used discriminants. These results imply that tsunami potential is not directly related to the product LWD from the “seismic” faulting model, as is assumed with the use of the M w CMT discriminant. Instead, information on rupture length, L, and depth, z, as provided by T d T 0 or T d T 50 Ex , can constrain well the tsunami potential of an earthquake. We introduce here special treatment of the signal around the S arrival at close stations, a modified, real-time, M wpd(RT) magnitude, and other procedures to enable early estimation of event parameters and tsunami discriminants. We show that with real-time data currently available in most regions of tsunami hazard, event locations, m b and M wp magnitudes, and the direct, period–duration discriminant, T d T 50 Ex can be determined within 5 min after an earthquake occurs, and T 0, T d T 0, and M wpd(RT) within approximately 10 min. This processing is implemented and running continuously in real-time within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome (http://early-est.rm.ingv.it). We also show that the difference m b  ? log10(T d T 0) forms a rapid discriminant for slow, tsunami earthquakes. The rapid availability of these measurements can aid in faster and more reliable tsunami early warning for near to regional distances.  相似文献   

8.
In this paper, a three-dimensional semi-idealized model for tidal motion in a tidal estuary of arbitrary shape and bathymetry is presented. This model aims at bridging the gap between idealized and complex models. The vertical profiles of the velocities are obtained analytically in terms of the first-order and the second-order partial derivatives of surface elevation, which itself follows from an elliptic partial differential equation. The surface elevation is computed numerically using the finite element method and its partial derivatives are obtained using various methods. The newly developed semi-idealized model allows for a systematic investigation of the influence of geometry and bathymetry on the tidal motion which was not possible in previously developed idealized models. The new model also retains the flexibility and computational efficiency of previous idealized models, essential for sensitivity analysis. As a first step, the accuracy of the semi-idealized model is investigated. To this end, an extensive comparison is made between the model results of the semi-idealized model and two other idealized models: a width-averaged model and a three-dimensional idealized model. Finally, the semi-idealized model is used to understand the influence of local geometrical effects on the tidal motion in the Ems estuary. The model shows that local convergence and meandering effects can have a significant influence on the tidal motion. Finally, the model is applied to the Ems estuary. The model results agree well with observations and results from a complex numerical model.  相似文献   

9.
A modified formula of the cumulative frequency-magnitude relation has been formulated and tested in a previous paper by the authors of this study. Based on the modified relationship, the following reoccurrence formulas have been obtained.
  1. For the ‘T-years period’ larger earthquake magnitude,M T $$M_T = \frac{1}{{A_3 }}ln\frac{{A_2 }}{{(1/T) + A_1 }}.$$
  2. For the value of the maximum earthquake magnitude, which is exceeded with probabilityP inT-years period,M PT $$M_{PT} = \frac{{ln(A_2 .T)}}{{A_3 }} - \frac{{ln[A_1 .T - ln(1 - P)]}}{{A_3 }}.$$
  3. For the probability of occurrence of an earthquake of magnitudeM in aT-years period,P MT $$P_{MT} = 1 - \exp [ - T[ - A_1 + A_2 \exp ( - A_3 M)]].$$
The above formulas provide estimates of the probability of reoccurrence of the largest earthquake events which are significantly more realistic than those based on the Gutenberg-Richter relationships; at least for numerous tested earthquake samples from the major area of Greece.  相似文献   

10.
We use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations to study tsunami waves in Resurrection Bay, in south-central Alaska. The town of Seward, located at the head of Resurrection Bay, was hit hard by both tectonic and local landslide-generated tsunami waves during the M W 9.2 1964 earthquake with an epicenter located about 150 km northeast of Seward. Recent studies have estimated the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay during the earthquake to be about 211 million m3. Resurrection Bay is a glacial fjord with large tidal ranges and sediments accumulating on steep underwater slopes at a high rate. Also, it is located in a seismically active region above the Aleutian megathrust. All these factors make the town vulnerable to locally generated waves produced by underwater slope failures. Therefore it is crucial to assess the tsunami hazard related to local landslide-generated tsunamis in Resurrection Bay in order to conduct comprehensive tsunami inundation mapping at Seward. We use numerical modeling to recreate the landslides and tsunami waves of the 1964 earthquake to test the hypothesis that the local tsunami in Resurrection Bay has been produced by a number of different slope failures. We find that numerical results are in good agreement with the observational data, and the model could be employed to evaluate landslide tsunami hazard in Alaska fjords for the purposes of tsunami hazard mitigation.  相似文献   

11.
Since 1998, ferry observations have been carried out in the Marsdiep tidal inlet (Dutch Wadden Sea), using amongst other instruments a vessel-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). Besides 32 cross-sections a day of current velocity data, the instrument also records the echo intensity, which has been interpreted in terms of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) before (Thorne and Hanes, Cont Shelf Res 22:603–632, 2002). However, we show herein that the random phase scattering model as outlined by Thorne and Hanes (Cont Shelf Res 22:603–632, 2002), predicts unrealistically high values of SSC if the depth-averaged current velocity exceeds approximately 0.7 m/s. Therefore, we extended the random phase scattering model by including scattering by turbulence-induced variability in SSC. The important mechanism is that when SSC fluctuations are present at length, scales of the order of the acoustic wavelength, the phase of the returned signal is no longer random and causes stronger backscatter. Such SSC fluctuations occur as a result of turbulent eddies in combination with an SSC gradient. The extended model was compared with data of two field surveys carried out in the Marsdiep inlet. The extended model, when compared with the classical random phase model, showed a large improvement of accuracy of the estimated SSC, which allows us to apply the model to the ferry data set to analyse suspended sediment transports through the Marsdiep tidal inlet.  相似文献   

12.
A fine grid tidal modeling experiment is carried out in order to investigate the tidal regimes for major five tidal constituents, the nonlinear tidal phenomena in terms of M4 and MS4 generation, and the independent tide by the tide generating force in the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS). In this study a two-dimensional numerical model based upon a subgrid-scale (SGS) stress modeling technique is used with the tide generating force included. The model was validated with recently observed tide and current data. The calculated tidal charts for tidal elevation show a generally good agreement with existing ones, with more accurate feature of the M2 cotidal chart in comparison with both the observed data and the existing tidal charts. A careful comparison of the computed diurnal amplitude with observations suggests that the diurnal constituents seem to be overdamped especially in the Kyunggi Bay region, for the case when quadratic bottom friction law is used.Propagation features of the M4(MS4) tides are discussed in the YECS, based upon the analyses of the observed and calculated results. The amphidromic system of the M4 is quite complicated and one noticeable characteristic is that the propagation direction of the M4 tidal wave along the west coast of Korean peninsula is opposite to that of the M2 tidal wave. This result coincides with observations. The propagation feature of the MS4 is almost similar to that of the M4, but with lesser amplitude. The responses of the M4 tidal features to momentum diffusion term and depth-dependent form of the friction coefficient are also discussed.It is also shown that when the independent tide (Defant, 1960) arising from tide generating force (TGF) coexists with tidal waves (co-oscillating tide) arising from external boundary forcing, the TGF tidal waves are dissipated and their amphidromes tend to move westward. This may be interpreted as a process whereby the incident and reflected TGF tidal waves are damped by co-oscillating tide arising from external force at open boundaries. The TGF amplitude is found to be up to 10 cm and 4 cm in the Kyunggi Bay for the M2 and S2 constituents while those for all diurnal constituents are less than 1 cm over the entire model domain.  相似文献   

13.
An idealized morphodynamic model is used to gain further understanding about the formation and characteristics of shoreface-connected sand ridges and tidal sand banks on the continental shelf. The model consists of the 2D shallow water equations, supplemented with a sediment transport formulation and describes the initial feedback between currents and small amplitude bed forms. The behaviour of bed forms during both storm and fair weather conditions is analyzed. This is relevant in case of coastal seas characterized by tidal motion, where the latter causes continuous transport of sediment as bed load.The new aspects of this work are the incorporation of both steady and tidal currents (represented by an M2 and M4 component) in the external forcing, in combination with dominant suspended sediment transport during storms. The results indicate that the dynamics during storms and fair weather strongly differ, causing different types of bed forms to develop. Shoreface-connected sand ridges mainly form during storm conditions, whereas if fair weather conditions prevail the more offshore located tidal sand banks develop. Including the M4 tide changes the properties of the bed forms, such as growth rates and migration speeds, due to tidal asymmetry. Finally a probabilistic formulation of the storm and fair weather realization of the model is used to find conditions for which both types of large-scale bed forms occur simultaneously. These conditions turn out to be a low storm fraction and the presence strong tidal currents in combination with strong steady currents during storms.  相似文献   

14.
Presently available data on the reaction of SO2 with OH radicals (OH + SO2 + \(M\xrightarrow[{k_1 }]{}\) HSO3 +M) are critically reviewed in light of recent stratospheric sulfur budget calculations. These calculations impose that the net oxidation ratek of SO2 within the stratosphere should fall within the range 10?7≤k≤10?9, if the SO2 oxidation model for the stratospheric sulfate layer is assumed to be correct. The effective reaction rate constantk 1 * =k 1[M] at the stratospheric temperature is estimated as $$k_1^* = \frac{{(8.2 \pm 2.2) \times 10^{ - 13} \times [M]}}{{(0.79 \mp 0.34) \times 10^{ - 13} + [M]}}cm^3 /molecules sec$$ where [M] refers to the total number density (molecules/cm3). Using the above limiting values ofk 1 * , and the estimated OH density concentrations, the net oxidation rate is calculated as 3.6×10?7≤k≤1.3×10?8 at 17 km altitude. This indicates that the upper limit of thesek values exceeds the tolerable range imposed by the model by a factor of about four. Obviously the uncertainty of thek 1 * values and of the OH concentrations in the stratosphere is still too large to make definite conclusions on the validity of the SO2 model.  相似文献   

15.
Water level records at two stations in the Guadalquivir Estuary (Spain), one near the estuary mouth (Bonanza) and one about 77 km upstream (Sevilla), have been analysed to study the amplification of the tide in the estuary. The tidal amplification factor shows interesting temporal variation, including a spring-neap variation, some extreme low values, and especially the anomalous behaviour that the amplification factor is larger during a number of periods. These variations are explained by data analysis combined with numerical and analytical modelling. The spring-neap variation is due to the quadratic relation between the bottom friction and the tidal flow velocity. The river flood events are the direct causes of the extreme low values of the amplification factor, and they trigger the non-linear interaction between the tidal flow and suspended sediment transport. The fluvial sediment input during a river flood causes high sediment concentration in the estuary, up to more than 10 g/l. This causes a reduction of the effective hydraulic drag, resulting in stronger tidal amplification in the estuary for a period after a river flood. After such an event the tidal amplification in the estuary does not always fall back to the same level as before the event, indicating that river flood events have significant influence on the long-term development of this estuary.  相似文献   

16.
The present work is a continuation and improvement of the method suggested in Pisarenko et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 165:1–42, 2008) for the statistical estimation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes. The chief innovation is to combine the two main limit theorems of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) that allow us to derive the distribution of T-maxima (maximum magnitude occurring in sequential time intervals of duration T) for arbitrary T. This distribution enables one to derive any desired statistical characteristic of the future T-maximum. We propose a method for the estimation of the unknown parameters involved in the two limit theorems corresponding to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) and to the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). We establish the direct relations between the parameters of these distributions, which permit to evaluate the distribution of the T-maxima for arbitrary T. The duality between the GEV and GPD provides a new way to check the consistency of the estimation of the tail characteristics of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes for earthquake occurring over an arbitrary time interval. We develop several procedures and check points to decrease the scatter of the estimates and to verify their consistency. We test our full procedure on the global Harvard catalog (1977–2006) and on the Fennoscandia catalog (1900–2005). For the global catalog, we obtain the following estimates: \( \hat{M}_{{\rm max} } \)  = 9.53 ± 0.52 and \( \hat{Q}_{10} (0.97) \)  = 9.21 ± 0.20. For Fennoscandia, we obtain \( \hat{M}_{{\rm max} } \)  = 5.76 ± 0.165 and \( \hat{Q}_{10} (0.97) \)  = 5.44 ± 0.073. The estimates of all related parameters for the GEV and GPD, including the most important form parameter, are also provided. We demonstrate again the absence of robustness of the generally accepted parameter characterizing the tail of the magnitude-frequency law, the maximum possible magnitude M max, and study the more stable parameter Q T (q), defined as the q-quantile of the distribution of T-maxima on a future interval of duration T.  相似文献   

17.
This study investigates how Mattituck Sill influences circulation patterns and physical dynamics in eastern Long Island Sound, a major estuary on the U.S. east coast. Observations show there is pronounced across-estuary transport in the area and suggest there may be subtidal anticyclonic flow around the sill. Model runs, with and without sill bathymetry, exhibit this across-estuary transport and anticyclonic circulation. Comparison between these runs indicates that the sill intensifies the anticyclonic circulation. This study finds the sill does not exert internal hydraulic control during neap, mean, or spring tidal conditions. Nevertheless, along-estuary exchange is reduced over the sill and across-estuary fluxes are increased. The Connecticut River plume enters close to the estuary mouth. The sill deflects more of the plume waters towards the mouth, causing less freshwater to take the long looping route through the estuary. The subtidal circulation balance around the sill indicates a barotropic balance between the tidal advection of tidal vorticity and friction. The subtidal vorticity balance indicates the net effect of tidal advection of relative vorticity is balanced with frictional curl associated with lateral speed gradients and vorticity dissipation. Previously developed scalings based on the circulation balance (Nature 290:549–555, 1981), frictional vorticity generation mechanisms (Deep-Sea Res 28:195–212, 1981), and tidal diffusion of potential vorticity (J Phys Oceanogr 29:821–827, 1999) are applicable to Mattituck Sill and predict circulation with a similar magnitudes to model results.  相似文献   

18.
The evolution laws of LURR (Loading–Unloading Response Ratio) before strong earthquakes, especially the peak point of LURR, are described in this paper. The results of four methods (experimental, numerical simulation, seismic data analysis and with damage mechanics analysis) lead to a consistent conclusion—the evolution laws of LURR before strong earthquakes are that, at the early stage of the seismic cycle, LURR will fluctuate around 1 and in the late stage, it rises swiftly and to its peak point. At some time after this peak point, a catastrophic event or events occur. These do not occur at the peak point, but lag behind. The lag time which is denoted by T 2 depends on the magnitude M of the upcoming earthquake among other factors. In order to consider the influence of geophysical parameters in a specific region such as $ \dot{\gamma }, $ E a and J (t), where $ \dot{\gamma } $ is the shear strain rate of tectonic loading in situ, E a is the sum of radiated energy of all earthquake occurring in a specific region measured during a long time duration (110 years in this paper) divided by the area of the region and the time duration, and J (t) is a parameter denoting the LURR anomaly area weighted with Y (the value of LURR) and represents the expanse and degree of the seismogenic zone. The dimensional analysis method has been used to reveal the relation between M, T 2 and other parameters in situ for more reliable earthquake prediction.  相似文献   

19.
We expand on the empirical Green’s function deconvolution method of Ide et al. (2011) to estimate radiated energy for the six largest earthquakes worldwide over the last 10 years: 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, 2004 M w 9.1 Sumatra, 2010 M w 8.8 Maule, 2005 M w 8.7 Nias, 2007 M w 8.5 Bengkulu, and 2012 M w 8.6 off-Sumatra. Deconvolution of P, SV and SH components gives consistent energy results that are comparable to estimates found independently by other researchers. Apparent stress for the five great thrust earthquakes is between 0.4 and 0.8 MPa, while the 2012 off-Sumatra strike-slip earthquake has a higher apparent stress of 3 MPa, which is consistent with other studies that find a tendency for strike-slip events to be more energetic. Our results are within the spread of apparent stress from the wider global earthquake population over a large magnitude range. The azimuthal distribution of energy in each case shows signs of directivity, and in some cases, shows less energy radiated in the trench-ward direction, which may suggest enhanced tsunami potential. We find that eGfs as small as ~M 6.5 can be used for teleseismic deconvolution, and that an eGf-mainshock magnitude difference of 1.5 units yields stable results. This implies that M 8 is the minimum mainshock size for which teleseismic eGf deconvolution will work well. We propose that a database of eGf events could be used to calculate radiated energy and apparent stress of great, hazardous events in near real time, i.e., promptly enough that it could contribute to rapid response measures.  相似文献   

20.
We studied the circulation on the coastal domain of the Amazon Shelf by applying the hydrodynamic module of the estuarine and coastal ocean model and sediment transport. The first barotropic experiment aimed to explain the major bathymetric effects on tides and those generated by anisotropy in sediment distribution. We analyzed the continental shelf response of barotropic tides under realistic bottom stress parametrization (C d ), considering sediment granulometry obtained from a faciologic map, where river mud deposits and reworked sediments areas are well distinguished, among others classes of sediments. Very low C d values were set in the fluid mud regions off the Amapá coast (1.0 10???4), in contrast to values around 3.5 10???3 for coarser sediment regions off the Pará coast. Three-dimensional experiments represented the Amazon River discharge and trade winds, combined to barotropic tide influences and induced vertical mixing. The quasiresonant response of the Amazon Shelf to the M2 tide acts on the local hydrodynamics by increasing tidal admittance, along with tidal forcing at the shelf break and extensive fluid mud regions. Harmonic analysis of modeled currents agreed well with the analysis of the AMASSEDS observational data set. Tidal-induced vertical shear provided strong homogenization of threshold waters, which are subject to a kind of hydraulic control due to the topographic steepness. Ahead of the hydraulic jump, the low-salinity plume is disconnected from the bottom and acquires negative vorticity, turning southeastward. Tides act as a generator mechanism and topography, via hydraulic control, acts as a maintainer mechanism for the low-salinity frontal zone positioning. Tidally induced southeastward plume fate is overwhelmed by northwestward trade winds so that they, along with background circulation, probably play the most important role on the plume fate and variability over the Amazon Shelf.  相似文献   

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