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1.
《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(5):1107-1123
Regional seismic risk assessments and quantification of portfolio losses often require simulation of spatially distributed ground motions at multiple intensity measures. For a given earthquake, distributed ground motions are characterized by spatial correlation and correlation between different intensity measures, known as cross‐correlation. This study proposes a new spatial cross‐correlation model for within‐event spectral acceleration residuals that uses a combination of principal component analysis (PCA) and geostatistics. Records from 45 earthquakes are used to investigate earthquake‐to‐earthquake trends in application of PCA to spectral acceleration residuals. Based on the findings, PCA is used to determine coefficients that linearly transform cross‐correlated residuals to independent principal components. Nested semivariogram models are then fit to empirical semivariograms to quantify the spatial correlation of principal components. The resultant PCA spatial cross‐correlation model is shown to be accurate and computationally efficient. A step‐by‐step procedure and an example are presented to illustrate the use of the predictive model for rapid simulation of spatially cross‐correlated spectral accelerations at multiple periods. 相似文献
2.
Fully probabilistic seismic displacement analysis of spatially distributed slopes using spatially correlated vector intensity measures 
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下载免费PDF全文 Earthquake‐induced slope displacement is an important parameter for safety evaluation and earthquake design of slope systems. Traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis usually focuses on evaluating slope displacement at a particular location, and it is not suitable for spatially distributed slopes over a large region. This study proposes a computationally efficient framework for fully probabilistic seismic displacement analysis of spatially distributed slope systems using spatially correlated vector intensity measures (IMs). First, a spatial cross‐correlation model for three key ground motion IMs, that is, peak ground acceleration (PGA), Arias intensity, and peak ground velocity, is developed using 2686 ground motion recordings from 11 recent earthquakes. To reduce the computational cost, Monte Carlo simulation and data reduction techniques are utilized to generate spatially correlated random fields for the vector IMs. The slope displacement hazards over the region are further quantified using empirical predictive equations. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to highlight the importance of the spatial correlation and the advantage of using spatially correlated vector IMs in seismic hazard analysis of spatially distributed slopes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Influence of spatial correlation of strong ground motion on uncertainty in earthquake loss estimation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In addition to the mean values of possible loss during an earthquake, parameters of the probability distribution function for the loss to a portfolio (e.g. fractiles and standard deviation) are very important. Recent studies have shown that the proper treatment of ground‐motion variability and, particularly, the correlation of ground motion are essential for the estimation of the seismic hazard, damage and loss for distributed portfolios. In this study, we compared the effects of variations in the between‐earthquake correlation and in the site‐to‐site correlation on seismic loss and damage estimations for the extended objects (hypothetical portfolio) and critical elements (e.g. bridges) of a network. A scenario earthquake approach and a portfolio containing a set of hypothetical building and bridges were used for the purpose. We showed that the relative influences of the types of correlation on characteristics of loss distribution and the probability of damage are not equal. In some cases, when the median values of loss distribution or the probability that at least one critical element of a lifeline will be damaged are considered and when the spatial correlation of ground motion is used, the possible variations in the between‐earthquake correlation may be neglected. The shape of the site‐to‐site correlation function (i.e. the rate of decrease of the coefficient of spatial correlation with separation distance) seems also to be important when modelling spatially correlated ground‐motion fields. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
以河套地震带作为研究区域,选取2001年以来小震事件作为研究对象,采用单键群(SLC)方法,计算研究区地震空间相关长度,并分区域讨论其时序变化特征。计算结果表明,2001年以来,河套地震带5个子区域地震空间相关长度表现出不同变化特征,且无持续性变化,多在约3年时间尺度上表现出增长现象,表明地震空间相关长度的增长变化不太可能反映区域应力场的长期变化,而可能携带应力场的中期变化信息。通过设定不同计算窗长和滑动步长来考证计算结果,发现地震事件时空分布的非均匀性、空间窗形状和大小等因素,可能影响地震空间相关长度的数据变化幅度,但不影响整体变化趋势。 相似文献
5.
Earthquake-resistant design and seismic analysis often require the earthquake action to be represented in the form of acceleration time-histories. Real accelerograms can be selected based on matching an earthquake scenario, defined by magnitude and distance, and scaled if necessary. The scaled accelerograms should reflect the hazard in terms of the parameters that characterise the inelastic demand on structures, including response spectral ordinates, duration and energy content. In order to maintain realistic ground motions, the scaling factors should not differ greatly from unity. It is found that in many cases, where the hazard is influenced by more than one seismic source, it is impossible to define a single earthquake scenario that is compatible with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Even if a hazard-consistent scenario can be defined, there are difficulties encountered in using the results to select and scale real accelerograms. 相似文献
6.
7.
Construction of regional and local seismic anisotropic structures from wide-angle seismic data: crustal deformation in the southeast of China 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
We present a method to obtain spatial distributions of seismic anisotropy associated with regional stress and local faulting
in the crust from wide-angle seismic data. The method contains three steps. The first step consists of obtaining radial- and
transverse-component seismic sections using a pre-stack depth migration algorithm from the S-wave velocity model determined
by conventional interpretation of picked intra-crustal seismic events. In the second step, we compute time delays between
split shear-waves and polarizations of fast split shear-waves by minimizing the transverse-component seismic energy. The time
delay and polarization in each layer are derived using a layer-stripping method. The final step is to estimate the average
splitting parameters along the whole profile. Thus, the average time delay and polarization can be regarded as caused by the
effects owing to regional structure and stress fields, whereas the residual values of the splitting parameters are considered
to be related to local structures and local faulting. Our method allows us to construct multi-layer anisotropic images, which
may later be interpreted in terms of intra-layer coupling/decoupling or deformation. We present results from a set of three-component
seismic data acquired by a controlled source experiment in the southeast region of China. The results demonstrate that the
average polarizations and time delays are consistent with the direction and strength of the stress field, and their lateral
variations related to local anisotropy match the spatial distribution of surface faulting crossing the acquisition seismic
profile. 相似文献
8.
Prediction and verification of earthquakes induced by the Xiluodu hydropower station reservoir 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Research has been conducted on reservoir-induced earthquakes in China since the Xinfengjiang reservoir-induced earthquakes in the 1960s. Regulations now require the risk of reservoir-induced earthquakes to be evaluated in the pre-research stage of all hydropower projects. Although nearly 40 cases of reservoir-induced earthquakes have been reported in China, analyses comparing the changes in seismic activity following reservoir impoundment with predictions are rare. In this study, we compared seismic activities observed in the reservoir area before and after the impoundment of the Xiluodu hydropower station in terms of the spatial distribution, frequency, and focal depths of the earthquakes, and clarified the correlation between their frequency/timing and reservoir level after impoundment. We then concluded that the seismic events in the head region were karst-type earthquakes, while those in the second segment of the reservoir were tectonic earthquakes. The spatial distribution of the earthquake epicenters and the seismic intensities validated some of the results for the reservoir-induced seismic risk assessment for the Xiluodu hydropower station, indicating that the proposed earthquake triggers and predictive models are reasonable. This study can provide a valuable reference for investigating the mechanism (s) of reservoir-induced earthquakes, revising reservoir-induced earthquake hazard assessment codes, and predicting the hazard zones of reservoir-induced seismicity under similar conditions. 相似文献
9.
南北地震带南段大震活动频繁。已有的研究结果表明,大震近场范围场点的地震危险性与地震破裂面产状及其尺度密切相关。因此,在南北地震带南段需要考虑潜在震源三维特征进行地震危险性分析和地震区划研究。本文在充分搜集大震发震构造资料的基础上,在南北地震带南段构建了考虑震源尺度和产状的潜在震源模型,改进了地震危险性概率分析方法,进而对该地区进行地震区划研究。结果表明,考虑潜在震源三维特征的地震危险性分析结果可以有效地反映南北地震带南段发震构造的产状和尺寸特征,提高地震区划结果的合理性。 相似文献
10.
ASSESSING THE SEISMIC RISK OF CITIES AT FINE-SCALE: A CASE STUDY OF HAIDIAN DISTRICT IN BEIJING,CHINA 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 In order to provide practical and useful information for the disaster prevention and relief actions, it is necessary to take into account spatial differences and temporal changes of seismic risk in evaluating seismic risk at a proper temporal and spatial scale. From the perspectives of identifying spatial difference of seismic risk within the city and performing disaster relief operations, the evaluation of urban seismic risk is done in this paper at the spatial scale of 500m*500m grids for day time and night time separately. For this purpose, this paper proposes the methods for the assessment of seismic risk, establishing the correspondence relations between the population and land use, and between the floor area of buildings destroyed and casualties at more reasonable spatial and temporal scales. Taking a case study of Haidian District in Beijing using these methods, we estimate the floor area and the value of buildings destroyed and the casualties at daytime and nighttime separately at the 500m grid scale. Results show that:a total of 185, 000m2 of areas is expected to be destroyed annually in Haidian District, and the total loss of the houses is 325 million Yuan(excluding properties within the houses). During the day(night)time, 3, 159(2, 037)victims are expected to be killed and 12, 071(7, 790) injured. Destruction of buildings and loss of houses is spatially concentrated in the downtowns in the south and the industrial parks in the east. The casualties inflicted during the day and night descend from southeast to northwest, i.e. from urban core areas, urban fringes, urban outskirts, to village. Several regions suffer heavy casualties during the day, but nighttime casualties are scattered across different regions. The conclusions in this paper efficiently identify the spatial distribution of areas at the level of high and the very high seismic risk, which provides reliable decision support for identifying priority areas for pre-disaster prevention and mitigation, emergency rescue and the distribution of various relief supplies. 相似文献
11.
Many historic buildings in old urban centers in Eastern Canada are made of stone masonry reputed to be highly vulnerable to seismic loads.Seismic risk assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first step in the risk mitigation process to provide adequate planning for retrofit and preservation of historical urban centers.This paper focuses on development of analytical displacement-based fragility curves reflecting the characteristics of existing stone masonry buildings in Eastern Canada.The old historic center of Quebec City has been selected as a typical study area.The standard fragility analysis combines the inelastic spectral displacement,a structure-dependent earthquake intensity measure,and the building damage state correlated to the induced building displacement.The proposed procedure consists of a three-step development process:(1) mechanics-based capacity model,(2) displacement-based damage model and(3) seismic demand model.The damage estimation for a uniform hazard scenario of 2% in 50 years probability of exceedance indicates that slight to moderate damage is the most probable damage experienced by these stone masonry buildings.Comparison is also made with fragility curves implicit in the seismic risk assessment tools Hazus and ELER.Hazus shows the highest probability of the occurrence of no to slight damage,whereas the highest probability of extensive and complete damage is predicted with ELER.This comparison shows the importance of the development of fragility curves specific to the generic construction characteristics in the study area and emphasizes the need for critical use of regional risk assessment tools and generated results. 相似文献
12.
Rupture directivity effects in ground motion are known since many years to both seismologists and earthquake engineers, i.e. in sites that are in a particular geometrical configuration with respect to the rupture, the velocity fault‐normal signals may show a large pulse which occurs at the beginning of the record and contains the most of energy. The results are waveforms different from ordinary ground motions recorded in the far field or in geometrical conditions not favorable with respect to directivity. Current attenuation laws are not able to capture such effect well, if at all, and current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is not able to predict the resulting peculiar spectral shape. Moreover, it is believed that structures with dynamic behavior in a range of periods related to the pulse period may be subjected to underestimated seismic demand. In the paper this is investigated and increments in both elastic and inelastic seismic actions are quantified using a large dataset of records, from the next generation attenuation project (NGA), in which a fraction is comprised of velocity pulses identified in other studies. These analyses employ recently developed tools and procedures to assess directivity effects and to quantify the associated threat in terms of seismic action on structures. Subsequently, the same tools are used in one of the first attempts to identify near‐source effects in the data recorded during a normal faulting earthquake, the mainshock of the recent Abruzzo (central Italy) sequence, leading to conclude that pulse‐like effects are likely to have occurred in the event, that is (1) observation of pulse‐like records in some near‐source stations is in fair agreement with existing predictive models, (2) the increment in seismic demand shown by pulse‐like ground motion components complies with the results of the analysis of the NGA data, and (3) seismic demand in non‐impulsive recordings is generally similar to what expected for ordinary records. The results may be useful as a benchmark for inclusion of near‐source effect in design values of seismic action and structural risk analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
Effective periods and seismic performance of steel moment resisting frames designed for risk categories I and IV according to IBC2009 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 In current seismic design, structures that are essential for post‐disaster recovery, and hazardous facilities are classified as risk category IV and are designed with higher importance factors and stringent drift limits. These structures are expected to perform better in an earthquake event because a larger base shear and more stringent drift limit are used. Although this provision has been in the seismic design code over the last three decades, few studies have investigated the performance of essential structures. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of higher importance factors and stringent drift limits on the seismic performance of steel moment resisting frames. A total of 16 steel structures are designed for Los Angeles and Seattle. Different risk categories are used for the design. The effects of the risk categories on the structural periods, and thus on the seismic force demand, are investigated. A suite of inelastic time history analyses are carried out to understand the probability of exceeding a specified limit state when the structures are subjected to different levels of earthquake events. The results show that the periods of the structures in risk category IV decrease by a factor of 0.5 to 0.8, and the strengths increase by a factor of 1.5 to 3.2. Seismic fragility analysis shows that the structures in risk category IV generally satisfy the probabilistic performance objectives. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
A set of 3D physics‐based numerical simulations (PBS) of possible earthquakes scenarios in Istanbul along the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) is considered in this article to provide a comprehensive example of application of PBS to probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and loss assessment in a large urban area. To cope with the high‐frequency (HF) limitations of PBS, numerical results are first postprocessed by a recently introduced technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), providing broadband waveforms with a proper correlation of HF and low‐frequency (LF) portions of ground motion as well as a proper spatial correlation of peak values also at HF, that is a key feature for the seismic risk application at urban scale. Second, before application to PSHA, a statistical analysis of residuals is carried out to ensure that simulated results provide a set of realizations with a realistic within‐ and between‐event variability of ground motion. PBS results are then applied in a PSHA framework, adopting both the “generalized attenuation function” (GAF) approach, and a novel “footprint” (FP)‐based approach aiming at a convenient and direct application of PBS into PSHA. PSHA results from both approaches are then compared with those obtained from a more standard application of PSHA with empirical ground motion models. Finally, the probabilistic loss assessment of an extended simplified portfolio of buildings is investigated, comparing the results obtained adopting the different approaches: (i) GMPE, (ii) GAF, and (iii) FP. Only FP turned out to have the capability to account for the specific features of source and propagation path, while preserving the proper physically based spatial correlation characteristics, as required for a reliable loss estimate on a building portfolio spatially distributed over a large urban area. 相似文献
15.
在地震危险性分析或者地震损失分布评估中,需要考虑地震损失的空间相关性的影响。目前对地震损失空间相关性的研究,主要是基于经验或半经验的方法,没有经过实际地震损失分布的验证。本文基于2011年东日本大地震收集到的55万条建筑物破坏的详细数据得出了基于实际震害的地震损失随距离关系变化的空间相关性衰减规律,给出了一个基于实际数据的拟合公式,并将其应用于最新开发的基于高精度模拟的巨灾风险分析中。利用北京地区多个地震为算例,研究了实现空间相关性模拟的样本精度问题,并且给出了不同空间相关系数对地震损失分布的影响,从而能为未来的防震减灾工作提供更好的地震损失估计结果。 相似文献
16.
Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different models with respect to background seismic activity and earthquake occurrence in time is investigated. For the contribution of background seismic activity to seismic hazard, background area source with uniform seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity models are taken into consideration. For the contribution of faults, through characteristic earthquakes, both the memoryless Poisson and the time dependent renewal models are utilized. A case study, involving the assessment of seismic hazard for the Bursa province in Turkey, is conducted in order to examine quantitatively the influence of these models on seismic hazard results. The spatial variation of the difference in Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values obtained from these different models is presented in the form of difference maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Best estimate seismic hazard maps for PGA and Spectral Accelerations (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are obtained by using the logic tree method. 相似文献
17.
A methodology for the investigation of the spatial variation of seismic ground motions is presented; data recorded at the SMART-1 dense instrument array in Lotung, Taiwan, during Events 5 and 39 are used in the analysis. The seismic motions are modeled as superpositions of sinusoidal functions, described by their amplitude, frequency, wavenumber and phase. For each event and direction (horizontal or vertical) analysed, the approach identifies a coherent, common component in the seismic motions at all recording stations, and variabilities in amplitudes and phases around the common component sinusoidal characteristics, that are particular for each recording station. It is shown that the variations in both the amplitudes and the phases of the motions at the station locations around the common component characteristics contribute significantly to the spatially variable nature of the motions, and, furthermore, they are correlated: increase in the variability of the amplitudes of the motions recorded at individual stations around the common amplitude implies increase in the variability of the phases around the common phase. The dispersion range of the amplitude and phase variability around their corresponding common components appear also to be associated with physical parameters. The spatially variable arrival time delays of the waveforms at the stations due to their upward travelling through the site topography, in addition to the wave passage delays identified from signal processing techniques, constitute another important cause for the spatial variation of the motions; their consideration in the approach facilitates also the identification of the correlation patterns in the amplitudes and phases. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
A methodology for defining seismic scenario‐structure‐based limit state criteria for rc high‐rise wall buildings using net drift 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 As a result of population growth and consequent urbanization, the number of high‐rise buildings is rapidly growing worldwide resulting in increased exposure to multiple‐scenario earthquakes and associated risk. The wide range in frequency contents of possible strong ground motions can have an impact on the seismic response, vulnerability and limit states definitions of RC high‐rise wall structures. Motivated by the pressing need to derive more accurate fragility relations to be used in seismic risk assessment and mitigation of such structures, a methodology is proposed to obtain reliable, Seismic Scenario‐Structure‐Based (SSSB) definitions of limit state criteria. A 30‐story wall building, located in a multi‐seismic scenario study region, is utilized to illustrate the methodology. The building is designed following modern codes and then modeled using nonlinear fiber‐based approach. Uncertainty in ground motions is accounted for by the selection of forty real earthquake records representing two seismic scenarios. Seismic scenario‐based building local response at increasing earthquake intensities is mapped using Multi‐Record Incremental Dynamic Analyses (MRIDAs) with a new scalar intensity measure. Net Inter‐Story Drift (NISD) is selected as a global damage measure based on a parametric study involving seven buildings ranging from 20 to 50 stories. This damage measure is used to link local damage events, including shear, to global response under different seismic scenarios. While the study concludes by proposing SSSB limit state criteria for the sample building, the proposed methodology arrives at a reliable definition of limit state criteria for an inventory of RC high‐rise wall buildings under multiple earthquake scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Two key issues distinguish probabilistic seismic risk analysis of a lifeline or portfolio of structures from that of a single structure. Regional analysis must consider the correlation among lifeline components or structures in the portfolio, and the larger scope makes it much more computationally demanding. In this paper, we systematically identify and compare alternative methods for regional hazard analysis that can be used as the first part of a computationally efficient regional probabilistic seismic risk analysis that properly considers spatial correlation. Specifically, each method results in a set of probabilistic ground motion maps with associated hazard‐consistent annual occurrence probabilities that together represent the regional hazard. The methods are compared according to how replicable and computationally tractable they are and the extent to which the resulting maps are physically realistic, consistent with the regional hazard and regional spatial correlation, and few in number. On the basis of a conceptual comparison and an empirical comparison for Los Angeles, we recommend a combination of simulation and optimization approaches: (i) Monte Carlo simulation with importance sampling of the earthquake magnitudes to generate a set of probabilistic earthquake scenarios (defined by source and magnitude); (ii) the optimization‐based probabilistic scenario method, a mixed‐integer linear program, to reduce the size of that set; (iii) Monte Carlo simulation to generate a set of probabilistic ground motion maps, varying the number of maps sampled from each earthquake scenario so as to minimize the sampling variance; and (iv) the optimization‐based probabilistic scenario again to reduce the set of probabilistic ground motion maps. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Muhammad Amir Shafiq Tariq Alshawi Zhiling Long Ghassan AlRegib 《Geophysical Prospecting》2018,66(Z1):132-143
In this paper, we propose a workflow based on SalSi for the detection and delineation of geological structures such as salt domes. SalSi is a seismic attribute designed based on the modelling of human visual system that detects the salient features and captures the spatial correlation within seismic volumes for delineating seismic structures. Using this attribute we cannot only highlight the neighbouring regions of salt domes to assist a seismic interpreter but also delineate such structures using a region growing method and post‐processing. The proposed delineation workflow detects the salt‐dome boundary with very good precision and accuracy. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed workflow on a real seismic dataset acquired from the North Sea, F3 block. For the subjective evaluation of the results of different salt‐dome delineation algorithms, we have used a reference salt‐dome boundary interpreted by a geophysicist. For the objective evaluation of results, we have used five different metrics based on pixels, shape, and curvedness to establish the effectiveness of the proposed workflow. The proposed workflow is not only fast but also yields better results as compared with other salt‐dome delineation algorithms and shows a promising potential in seismic interpretation. 相似文献