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1.
Historic land use in the Chesapeake Bay drainage basin induced large fluxes of fluvial sediment to subestuarine tributaries. Stratigraphic and palaeoecologic analyses of deltaic deposits may be used to infer changes on the landscape, but are not sufficient to quantify past sediment supply. When viewed as an inverse boundary‐value problem, reconstruction of the sediment supply function may be achieved by combining deltaic sedimentation chronologies with an equation governing delta progradation. We propose that the diffusion equation is appropriate for simulating delta progradation and obtaining the sediment supply function provided a suitable diffusion constant (D) can be determined. Three new methods for estimating D are presented for the case of estuarine deltas. When the inverse boundary‐value technique was applied to Otter Point Creek, a tidal freshwater delta at the head of Bush River in upper Chesapeake Bay, D values ranged from 3763 to 6199 m2 a?1. Delta growth simulations showed a 1740–1760 initial pulse, a 1760–1780 erosive/redistributive interval, a 1780–1920 growth period, and a 1920‐present erosive/redistributive era. Coupling of simulated delta elevations with an empirical plant habitat predictive equation allowed for comparison of predicted versus actual relative habitat areas. Also, the model yielded reconstructed watershed erosion rates and stream suspended sediment concentrations that could be useful for development of water quality regulations. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Water from the Susquehanna River was collected and analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners to estimate seasonal and annual riverine loads to the Chesapeake Bay. Temporal variations in the chemical loads resulted from the large changes in the water flow rates and in the particle-associated contaminant concentrations. Concentrations of PCBs and PAHs in river particles (ng/g) were twice as great as those in the northern Chesapeake Bay, indicating that the Susquehanna River is an important source of these contaminants to the bay. The river carries a majority of its hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) in the particulate phase. During periods of high flow, large amounts of suspended particles in the river result in elevated HOC levels and increased loadings of these contaminants to the bay. From 1997 to 1998, 60% of the total annual HOC loading occurred in the early spring coincident with high river flows. The total PCB and PAH annual loadings from the Susquehanna River to the Chesapeake Bay were 76 and 3160 kg/year, respectively and 75% of the loaded organic contaminants were in the particulate phase. Principal component analysis of PAH and PCB congener patterns in the particles reveals that the river suspended particles were dominated by autochthonous production in the summer and by resuspended sediment and watershed erosion during the winter and early spring.  相似文献   

3.
This work proposes two modelling frameworks for diagnosing temporal variations in nonlinear rating curves that describe suspended sediment–discharge relationships. A variant of the weighted regression on time, discharge, and season model is proposed and is compared against dynamic nonlinear modelling, a newly developed nonlinear time series filter based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Both approaches estimate a time series of rating curve parameters, with uncertainty, that can be used to diagnose variability in the sediment–discharge relationship over time. We evaluate the models with a variety of synthetic scenarios to highlight their ability to estimate signals of known rating curve change. Results reveal important bias‐variance trade‐offs unique to each approach, and in general, suggest that dynamic nonlinear modelling is better suited for rapid rating curve changes, whereas the weighted regression on time, discharge, and season variant more precisely estimates slow change. The techniques are then applied in two case studies in the Upper Hudson and Mohawk Rivers in New York. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of dynamic rating curves for the management of water quality in riverine and estuary systems.  相似文献   

4.
Cross-Media Models of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Airshed   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
A continuous, deterministic watershed model of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, linked to an atmospheric deposition model is used to examine nutrient loads to the Chesapeake Bay under different management scenarios. The Hydrologic Simulation Program - Fortran, Version 11 simulation code is used at an hourly time-step for ten years of simulation in the watershed. The Regional Acid Deposition Model simulates management options in reducing atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. Nutrient loads are summed over daily periods and used for loading a simulation of the Chesapeake estuary employing the Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package. Averaged over the ten-year simulation, loads are compared for scenarios under 1985 conditions, forecasted conditions in the year 2000, and estimated conditions under a limit of technology scenario. Limit of technology loads are a 50%, 64%, and 42% reduction from the 1985 loads in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total suspended solids, respectively. Urban loads, which include point source, on-site wastewater disposal systems, combined sewer overflows, and nonpoint source loads have the highest flux of nutrient loads to the Chesapeake, followed by crop land uses.on assignment from NOAA Air Resources Laboratory  相似文献   

5.
Hexachlorocylcohexanes (HCHs) are pesticides that persist in air and water of the Northern hemisphere. To understand the spatial and temporal variability in HCH levels in estuarine surface waters we measured concentrations of two HCH isomers (-HCH and γ-HCH) at six sites in the York River estuary at bimonthly intervals for a year. Bacterial abundance and activity were also monitored using acridine orange direct counts and uptake of tritiated substrates, respectively. -HCH was consistently observed to be significantly higher in marine water compared to river water entering the estuary, suggesting that the Chesapeake Bay or Atlantic Ocean is a larger source of this compound to the York River estuary compared to riverine input. Moreover, following periods of high freshwater flow into the estuary during spring and early summer, both - and γ-HCH mixing curves indicated an additional source of these pollutants to the estuary such as land-derived runoff or groundwater discharge. In contrast, during low freshwater flow (late summer and fall) the estuary was a sink for HCHs, with γ-HCH more rapidly removed from the estuary than -HCH. During the period of low freshwater flow, concentrations of both - and γ-HCH were negatively correlated with bacterial activity. Bacterial activity as opposed to abundance appears to control HCH degradation in estuarine surface waters.  相似文献   

6.
《Continental Shelf Research》2008,28(18):2565-2573
A numerical model is used to determine the resonant period and quality factor Q of Chesapeake Bay and explore physical mechanisms controlling the resonance response in semi-enclosed seas. At the resonant period of 2 days, the mouth-to-head amplitude gain is 1.42 and Q is 0.9, indicating that Chesapeake Bay is a highly dissipative system. The modest amplitude gain results from strong frictional dissipation in shallow water. It is found that the spatial distribution of energy dissipation varies with forcing frequency. While energy at tidal frequencies is dissipated around topographic hotspots distributed throughout the Bay, energy dissipation at subtidal frequencies is mainly concentrated in the shallow-water lower Bay. An analytic calculation shows that the bottom friction parameter is much larger in Chesapeake Bay than in other coastal systems with strong resonance response. The model-predicted amplitude gains and phase changes agree well with the observations at semidiurnal and diurnal tidal frequencies. However, the predicted amplitude gain in the resonant frequency band (34–54 h period) falls below that inferred from band-passed sea level observations. This discrepancy can be attributed to the local wind forcing which amplifies the sea level response in the upper Bay. The model is also used to show that rising sea levels associated with global warming will shift the resonance period of Chesapeake Bay closer to the diurnal tides and thus exacerbate flooding problems by causing an increase in tidal ranges.  相似文献   

7.
Eutrophic depletion of dissolved oxygen (DO) and its consequences for ecosystem dynamics have been a central theme of research, assessment and management policies for several decades in the Chesapeake Bay. Ongoing forecast efforts predict the extent of the summer hypoxic/anoxic area due to nutrient loads from the watershed. However, these models neither predict DO levels nor address the intricate interactions among various ecological processes. The prediction of spatially explicit DO levels in the Chesapeake Bay can eventually lead to a reliable depiction of the comprehensive ecological structure and functioning, and can also allow the quantification of the role of nutrient reduction strategies in water quality management. In this paper, we describe a three dimensional empirical model to predict DO levels in the Chesapeake Bay as a function of water temperature, salinity and dissolved nutrient concentrations (TDN and TDP). The residual analysis shows that predicted DO values compare well with observations. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root mean square error-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) are used to evaluate the performance of the empirical model; the scores demonstrate the usability of model predictions (NSE, surface layer = 0.82–0.86; middle layer = 0.65–0.82; bottom layer = 0.70–0.82; RSR surface layer = 0.37–0.44; middle layer = 0.43–0.58 and bottom layer = 0.43–0.54). The predicted DO values and other physical outputs from downscaling of regional weather and climate predictions, or forecasts from hydrodynamic models, can be used to forecast various ecological components. Such forecasts would be useful for both recreational and commercial users of the Chesapeake Bay.  相似文献   

8.
The effectiveness of simulating surge inundation using the Eulerian–Lagrangian circulation (ELCIRC) model over multi-scale unstructured grids was examined in this study. The large domain model grid encompasses the western North Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea to appropriately account for remote and resonance effects during hurricane events and simplify the specification of the open boundary condition. The U.S. East and Gulf Coasts were divided into 12 overlapping basins with fine-resolution (up to 30 × 30 m) grids to model overland surge flooding. These overlapping basins have different fine-resolution grids near the coastal region, but have an identical coarse-resolution grid in the offshore region within the large model domain. Thus, the storm surge prediction can be conducted without reducing computation efficiency by executing multiple model runs with local fine-resolution grids where potential hurricane landfalls may occur. The capability of the multi-scale approach was examined by simulating storm surge caused by Hurricanes Andrew (1992) and Isabel (2003) along the South Florida coast and in the Chesapeake Bay. Comparisons between simulated and observed results suggest that multi-scale models proficiently simulated storm surges in the Biscayne Bay and the Chesapeake Bay during two hurricanes. A series of sensitivity tests demonstrated that the simulation of surge flooding was improved when LiDAR topographic data and special bottom drag coefficient values for mangrove forests were employed. The tests also showed that appropriate representation of linear hydrologic features is important for computing surge inundation in an urban area.  相似文献   

9.
Blue crab larvae are advected out of Middle Atlantic Bight estuaries immediately after spawning occurs in the estuary entrance. For the next 30 to 50 days the larvae are found offshore and mainly at the surface where they are influenced by wind-driven currents. Using a previously derived circulation model and winds from Norfolk (VA) airport, a backward trace is made from where relatively dense concentrations of megalopae were found in the Chesapeake Bight during 1983 to a point of origin (spawning).During 1983, the megalopae encountered on the shelf had their origin in Chesapeake Bay and took, at minimum, 31 to 36 days to grow to the megalopae stage. Wind forcing dominated the inner shelf region in the summer of 1983 and the resulting dispersion of Chesapeake Bay megalopae occurred briefly in the southern sector early in the season, but toward the northern sector over most of the season. Although no firm conclusions could be drawn regarding the mechanism for return, it did not seem likely that wind advection back to the point of origin would be effective.  相似文献   

10.
Most Australian estuaries are subject to riverine discharge regimes that are highly episodic. This characteristic poses difficulties for estimating nutrient budgets of such systems based on sampling regimes that do not resolve the discharge variation and the changes in nutrient distributions that they cause. This paper presents a method for calculating nutrient budgets in estuaries having episodic hydrology. The method utilises a simple hydrodynamic transport model that is calibrated using measured salinities and which is used to describe the transport properties of the estuary as they respond to river discharge. Using this transport model, the temporal variation in nutrient concentrations within the estuary can be resolved between sampling surveys even when the discharge events are of short duration. An inverse method is then applied to calculate internal fluxes of nutrients from measurements obtained on successive sampling surveys. The approach is demonstrated through an application to the Fitzroy Estuary in Queensland, Australia.  相似文献   

11.
The validation and subsequent application of the current three-dimensional numerical hydrodynamic model of Chesapeake Bay is presented. The numerical model solves conservation equations for water mass, momentum, salinity, and heat on a boundary-fitted grid in the horizontal plane and a Cartesian z-grid in the vertical. A generalized ADI finite difference scheme is employed in conjunction with mode splitting technique, solving external and the internal modes. The 10-year boundary conditions including tide, slinity, temperature, wind, heat exchange coefficient, river and non-point source flows were constructed. Model validation was accomplished by demonstrating the model's ability to reproduce observed data over time scales ranging from tidal to seasonal periods. The major parameters compared include tidal elevation, intra-tidal and residual velocities, salinity, temperature, stratification, and flux calculated through the Bay mouth.After validation, the model was applied to simulate bay hydrodynamics for the 10 years of 1985–94. These results were used to drive the three-dimensional water quality model of Chesapeake Bay, which is discussed in a companion paper.  相似文献   

12.
Irgarol and its major metabolite (GS26575) were measured in Maryland waters of Chesapeake Bay: (1) in and near 10 marinas, a mainstem Bay site and two Severn River locations during a general survey in July and December of 2002; (2) at various sites in the Port Annapolis Marina and the Severn River area during March of 2002 before the boating season began; and (3) during July (peak boating season) in the same Port Annapolis Marina and Severn River sites area during both an ebb and flood tide. Irgarol concentrations ranged from 1.82 ng/l at the mid-Bay site to 585 ng/l in Port Annapolis marina during the July and December general survey. An Irgarol 90th centile of 239 ng/l was reported for the 10 marina sites, two Severn River sites and one mainstem site sampled during the general survey conducted in July and December. Temporal analysis of all pooled data showed that 90th centiles were over seven times higher in July when compared to December. A comparison of Irgarol concentrations at 12 sites in the Port Annapolis marina and Severn River area during both an ebb and flood tide in July showed no consistent trend with tidal cycle by site although significant reductions in concentrations were reported with distance from the three Port Annapolis marina sites. Ecological risk from Irgarol exposure was judged to be low for most Chesapeake Bay sites sampled. Possible exceptions were Port Annapolis marina, Severn River sites in close proximity to this marina and Chesapeake Harbor marina where Irgarol concentrations exceeded a conservative effects threshold during the peak boating season in July. Ecological risk from GS26575 exposure was low for all sites.  相似文献   

13.
Evidence for the Chesapeake Bay Crater as the source for New Jersey continental margin ejecta is provided by fine-grained tektites and coarse-grained unmelted ejecta. The Upper Eocene ejecta deposit, now demonstrated to be part of the North American strewn field, occurs on the New Jersey continental margin at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 904 and 903. The mineralogy, major oxide composition of the ejecta materials, and biostratigraphic age of the enclosing sediments link the origin of these ejecta to the recently recognized Chesapeake Bay impact crater, located only 330 km away. Sediments associated with the ejecta provide information about the dynamics of impact events. The 35-cm-thick ejecta-bearing layer can be subdivided into three subunits that indicate a sequence of events. Bottom subunit III documents sediment failure and deposition of gravel-sized fragments, middle subunit II records deposition of abundant sand-sized ejecta by gravity settling, and upper subunit I contains a 12-cm-thick sedimentary deposit containing rare silt-sized tektites and evidence of waning currents. These events are interpreted by linking sediment deposition to seismic ground motion and subsequent tsunami waves triggered by both the Chesapeake Bay impact and slope failures.  相似文献   

14.
Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions.  相似文献   

15.
This paper presents data for the temporal and spatial distribution of nutrients in Liverpool Bay between 2003 and 2009 and an analysis of inputs of nutrients from the major rivers. The spatial distribution of winter nutrient concentrations are controlled by the region of freshwater influence (ROFI) in Liverpool Bay through the mixing of riverine freshwater and Irish Sea water, with strong linear relationships between nutrient concentration and salinity between December and February. The location of highest spring and summer phytoplankton biomass reflects the nutrient distributions as controlled by the ROFI. Analysis of 7 years of data showed that the seasonal cycle of winter maximum nutrient concentrations in February and drawdown in April/May is a recurrent feature of this location, with the timing of the drawdown varying by several weeks between years. A comparison of observed nutrient concentrations in Liverpool Bay with those predicted from inputs from rivers has been presented. Nutrient concentrations in the rivers flowing into Liverpool Bay were highly variable and there was reasonable agreement between predicted freshwater nutrient concentrations using data from this study and riverine nutrient concentrations weighted on the basis of river flow, although the exact nature of mixing between the rivers could not be determined. Predicted Irish Sea nutrient concentrations in the winter were lower than those reported for the input waters of the North Atlantic, supporting findings from previous work that nitrogen is lost through denitrification in the Irish Sea.  相似文献   

16.
A radiocarbon-calibrated aminochronology, based on the bivalve Mulinia lateralis, is presented for Chesapeake Bay core MD03-2661, a 25 m piston core drilled near Kent Island (38°53.21′N; 76°23.89′W) during the 2003 USGS Marion-Dufresne cruise. Three separate approaches were used to calibrate amino acid racemization (AAR) data for aspartic acid with radiocarbon data. For the first approach, a direct or paired analysis calibration incorporated eight articulated specimens, thereby allowing for the application of AAR and radiocarbon analysis of the same specimen and effectively eliminating both intrashell variability and time averaging as factors in the calibration. A second direct approach relied on valves that were bilaterally split to facilitate both AAR and radiocarbon dating, thus effectively eliminating time averaging effects from this calibration. For the third indirect approach, nine independent radiocarbon dates were combined with 129 Asx D/L ratios from the same core depths to produce an indirect calibration model, from which intershell variability and time averaging could be estimated. Variability in AAR ratios was recognized from a myriad of sources, including analytical error, intrashell variability, inherent variability, time averaging, and contamination. The majority of this variability was controlled for through experimental design or by the application of these three independent calibration approaches. The direct calibration of articulated shells and the indirect calibration yielded virtually identical age models, well within their respective 95% confidence intervals. This study establishes an aminostratigraphic reference section for the Holocene record of the Chesapeake Bay and demonstrates the usefulness of multiple calibration approaches and the potential utility of AAR for future studies of sedimentary processes and chronologies in the bay.  相似文献   

17.
The complexity of the evapotranspiration process and its variability in time and space have imposed some limitations on previously developed evapotranspiration models. In this study, two data‐driven models: genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), and statistical regression models were developed and compared for estimating the hourly eddy covariance (EC)‐measured actual evapotranspiration (AET) using meteorological variables. The utility of the investigated data‐driven models was also compared with that of HYDRUS‐1D model, which makes use of conventional Penman–Monteith (PM) model for the prediction of AET. The latent heat (LE), which is measured using the EC method, is modelled as a function of five climatic variables: net radiation, ground temperature, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed in a reconstructed landscape located in Northern Alberta, Canada. Several ANN models were evaluated using two training algorithms of Levenberg–Marquardt and Bayesian regularization. The GP technique was used to generate mathematical equations correlating AET to the five climatic variables. Furthermore, the climatic variables, as well as their two‐factor interactions, were statistically analysed to obtain a regression equation and to indicate the climatic factors having significant effect on the evapotranspiration process. HYDRUS‐1D model as an available physically based model was examined for estimating AET using climatic variables, leaf area index (LAI), and soil moisture information. The results indicated that all three proposed data‐driven models were able to approximate the AET reasonably well; however, GP and regression models had better generalization ability than the ANN model. The results of HYDRUS‐1D model exhibited that a physically based model, such as HYDRUS‐1D, might be comparable or even inferior to the data‐driven models in terms of the overall prediction accuracy. Based on the developed GP and regression models, net radiation and ground temperature had larger contribution to the AET process than other variables. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Reservoirs impose many negative impacts on riverine ecosystems. To balance human and ecosystem needs, we propose a reservoir operation method that combines reservoir operating rule curves with the regulated minimum water release policy to meet the environmental flow requirements of riverine ecosystems. Based on the relative positions of the reservoir and the water intakes, we consider three scenarios: water used for human needs (including industrial, domestic and agricultural) is directly withdrawn from (1) the reservoir; (2) both reservoirs and downstream river channels and (3) downstream river. The proposed method offers two advantages over traditional methods: First, it can be applied to finding the optimal reservoir operating rule curves with the consideration of environmental flow requirement, which is beneficial to the sustainable water uses. Second, it avoids a problem with traditional approaches, which prescribe the minimum environmental flow requirements as the regulated minimum environmental flow releases from reservoirs, implicitly giving lower priority to the riverine ecosystem. Our method instead determines the optimal regulated minimum releases of water to sustain environmental flows while more effectively balancing human and ecosystem needs. To demonstrate practical use of the model, we present a case study for operation of the Tanghe reservoir in China's Tang river basin for the three above‐mentioned scenarios. The results demonstrate that this approach will help the reservoir's managers satisfy both human and environmental requirements. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Gene expression programing (GEP) is used to estimate the suspended sediment yield (SSY) in Euphrates River. SSY is considered to be a function of (i) discharge and (ii) time‐lagged discharge and SSY. The proposed models were trained to extrapolate natural stream data collected from five stations in Middle Euphrates Basin. A detailed sensitivity analysis is done to select the time‐lagged discharge and sediment yield variables. GEP implicitly evaluates the contribution of each independent variable on the fitness of candidate solution and eliminates the variable having no contribution. In this study, all input variables are observed to be included in the proposed GEP models, which prove the significance of each variable. Also, standard and modified sediment rating curves and regression‐based formulae are developed for the five stations. In verification, the estimations of GEP formulae agree well with the measured ones. The GEP models are evaluated by the results of the rating curves and regression formulae. In general, the GEP formulae give better results compared to the rating curves and regression‐based formulae.  相似文献   

20.
The composite method is an alternative method for estimating stream‐water solute loads, combining aspects of two commonly used methods: the regression‐model method (which is used by the composite method to predict variations in concentrations between collected samples) and a period‐weighted approach (which is used by the composite method to apply the residual concentrations from the regression model over time). The extensive dataset collected at the outlet of the Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW) near Atlanta, Georgia, USA, was used in data analyses for illustrative purposes. A bootstrap (subsampling) experiment (using the composite method and the PMRW dataset along with various fixed‐interval and large storm sampling schemes) obtained load estimates for the 8‐year study period with a magnitude of the bias of less than 1%, even for estimates that included the fewest number of samples. Precisions were always <2% on a study period and annual basis, and <2% precisions were obtained for quarterly and monthly time intervals for estimates that had better sampling. The bias and precision of composite‐method load estimates varies depending on the variability in the regression‐model residuals, how residuals systematically deviated from the regression model over time, sampling design, and the time interval of the load estimate. The regression‐model method did not estimate loads precisely during shorter time intervals, from annually to monthly, because the model could not explain short‐term patterns in the observed concentrations. Load estimates using the period‐weighted approach typically are biased as a result of sampling distribution and are accurate only with extensive sampling. The formulation of the composite method facilitates exploration of patterns (trends) contained in the unmodelled portion of the load. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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