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1.
A method is presented to evaluate the storm runoff contributions from different land‐use class areas within a river basin using the geographical information system‐based hydrological model WetSpa. The modelling is based on division of the catchment into a grid mesh. Each cell has a unique response function independent of the functioning of other cells. Summation of the flow responses from the cells with the same land‐use type results in the storm runoff contribution from these areas. The model was applied on the Steinsel catchment in the Alzette river basin, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, with 52 months of meteo‐hydrological measurements. The simulation results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land‐use areas in this catchment, and this tends to increase for small floods and for the dry‐season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to recession flow. It is demonstrated that the relative contribution from urban areas decreases with flow coefficient, that cropland relative contribution is nearly constant, and that the relative contribution from grassland and woodland increases with flow coefficient with regard to their percentage of land‐use class areas within the study catchment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
We examined the contributions of bedrock groundwater to the upscaling of storm‐runoff generation processes in weathered granitic headwater catchments by conducting detailed hydrochemical observations in five catchments that ranged from zero to second order. End‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) was performed to identify the geographical sources of stream water. Throughfall, hillslope groundwater, shallow bedrock groundwater, and deep bedrock groundwater were identified as end members. The contribution of each end member to storm runoff differed among the catchments because of the differing quantities of riparian groundwater, which was recharged by the bedrock groundwater prior to rainfall events. Among the five catchments, the contribution of throughfall was highest during both baseflow and storm flow in a zero‐order catchment with little contribution from the bedrock groundwater to the riparian reservoir. In zero‐order catchments with some contribution from bedrock groundwater, stream water was dominated by shallow bedrock groundwater during baseflow, but it was significantly influenced by hillslope groundwater during storms. In the first‐order catchment, stream water was dominated by shallow bedrock groundwater during storms as well as baseflow periods. In the second‐order catchment, deeper bedrock groundwater than that found in the zero‐order and first‐order catchments contributed to stream water in all periods, except during large storm events. These results suggest that bedrock groundwater influences the upscaling of storm‐runoff generation processes by affecting the linkages of geomorphic units such as hillslopes, riparian zones, and stream channels. Our results highlight the need for a three‐dimensional approach that considers bedrock groundwater flow when studying the upscaling of storm‐runoff generation processes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Shang Gao  Zheng N. Fang 《水文研究》2019,33(21):2729-2744
A synthetic storm generator—Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS)—is developed in this study to represent spatio‐temporal variabilities of rainfall and storm movement in synthetic storms. Using an urban watershed as the testbed, the authors investigate the hydrologic responses to the DMS parameters and their interactions. In order to reveal the complex nature of rainfall–run‐off processes, previously simplified assumptions are relaxed in this study regarding (a) temporal variability of rainfall intensity and (b) time‐invariant flow velocity in channel routing. The results of this study demonstrate the significant contribution of storm moving velocity to the variation of peak discharge based on a global sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, a pairwise sensitivity analysis is conducted to elucidate not only the patterns in individual contributions from parameters to hydrologic responses but also their interactions with storm moving velocity. The intricacies of peak discharges resulting from sensitivity analyses are then dissected into independent hydrologic metrics, that is, run‐off volume and standard deviation of run‐off timings, for deeper insights. It is confirmed that peak discharge is increased when storms travel downstream along the main channel at the speed that corresponds to a temporal superposition of run‐off. Spatial concentration of catchment rainfall is found to be a critical linkage through which characteristics of moving storms affect peak discharges. In addition, altering peak timing of rainfall intensity in conjunction with storm movement results in varied storm core locations in the channel network, which further changes the flow attenuation effects from channel routing. For future directions, the DMS generator will be embedded in a stochastic modelling framework and applied in rainfall/flow frequency analysis.  相似文献   

4.
Geochemically based hydrograph separation techniques were used in a preliminary assessment to infer how runoff processes change with landscape characteristics and spatial scale (1–233 km2) within a mesoscale catchment in upland Scotland. A two‐component end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) used Gran alkalinity as an assumed conservative tracer. Analysis indicated that, at all scales investigated, acidic overland flow and shallow subsurface storm flows from the peaty soils covering the catchment headwaters dominated storm runoff generation. The estimated groundwater contribution to annual runoff varied from 30% in the smallest (ca 1 km2) peat‐dominated headwater catchment with limited groundwater storage, to >60% in larger catchments (>30 km2) with greater coverage of more freely draining soils and more extensive aquifers in alluvium and other drift. This simple approach offers a useful, integrated conceptualization of the hydrological functioning in a mesoscale catchment, which can be tested and further refined by focused modelling and process‐based research. However, even as it stands, the simple conceptualization of system behaviour will have significant utility as a tool for communicating hydrological issues in a range of planning and management decisions. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The principal challenge in the parameterization of storm flow models for agricultural catchments with an artificial drainage network and fields with different degrees of tillage lies in the parsimonious definition of distributed model parameters in a way that reduces the number of calibration parameters to a justifiable minimum. This paper presents a comprehensive case study for the parameter estimation of a distributed storm flow model applied to an agricultural catchment (0.91 km2) in the Mediterranean region. Model parameterization was combined with procedures for multi‐criteria, multi‐storm calibration, where we automatically calibrated three parameters related to flow velocity and infiltration, and compared single and multi‐storm criteria that are based on discharge volume, peak flow, and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient. Multi‐storm calibration yielded a set of parameter values for the simulation batch with best multi‐storm overall performance, which are close to the median values in the pre‐calibration of individual storms. Our results suggest that flow velocities and proportionality of the channel infiltration rate do not vary significantly over the course of 11 years. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
The dominance of ‘old’ pre‐event water in headwater storm runoff has been recorded in numerous upland catchment studies; however, the mechanisms by which this pre‐event water enters the stream channel are poorly understood. Understanding these processes is fundamental to determining the controls on surface water quality and associated impacts on stream ecology. Previous studies in the upland forested catchment of the Afon Hafren (River Severn) at Plynlimon, mid‐Wales, identified an active bedrock groundwater system that was discharging into the stream channel during storm response. Detailed analysis showed that these discharges were small and could not account for the majority of pre‐event storm water response identified at this site; pre‐event storm runoff had to be sourced predominantly from further upstream. An intensive stream survey was used to determine the spatial nature of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions in the Hafren Catchment. Detailed physico‐chemical in‐stream profiling identified a marked change in water quality indicating a significant discrete point of bedrock groundwater discharge upstream of the Hafren Transect study site. The in‐stream profiling showed the importance of high spatial resolution sampling as a key to understanding processes of GW–SW interaction and how quick and cost‐effective measurements of specific electrical conductance of stream waters could be used to highlight in‐stream heterogeneity. This approach is recommended for use in headwater catchments for initial characterisation of the stream channel in order to better locate instrumentation and to determine more effective targeted sampling protocols in upland catchment research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Information on the spatial and temporal origin of runoff entering the channel during a storm event would be valuable in understanding the physical dynamics of catchment hydrology; this knowledge could be used to help design flood defences and diffuse pollution mitigation strategies. The majority of distributed hydrological models give information on the amount of flow leaving a catchment and the pattern of fluxes within the catchment. However, these models do not give any precise information on the origin of runoff within the catchment. The spatial and temporal distribution of runoff sources is particularly intricate in semi‐arid catchments, where there are complex interactions between runoff generation, transmission and re‐infiltration over short temporal scales. Agents are software components that are capable of moving through and responding to their local environment. In this application, the agents trace the path taken by water through the catchment. They have information on their local environment and on the basis of this information make decisions on where to move. Within a given model iteration, the agents are able to stay in the current cell, infiltrate into the soil or flow into a neighbouring cell. The information on the current state of the hydrological environment is provided by the environment generator. In this application, the Connectivity of Runoff Model (CRUM) has been used to generate the environment. CRUM is a physically based, distributed, dynamic hydrology model, which considers the hydrological processes relevant for a semi‐arid environment at the temporal scale of a single storm event. During the storm event, agents are introduced into the model across the catchment; they trace the flows of water and store information on the flow pathways. Therefore, this modelling approach is capable of giving a novel picture of the temporal and spatial dynamics of flow generation and transmission during a storm event. This is possible by extracting the pathways taken by the agents at different time slices during the storm. The agent based modelling approach has been applied to two small catchments in South East Spain. The modelling approach showed that the two catchments responded differently to the same rainfall event due to the differences in the runoff generation and overland flow connectivity between the two catchments. The model also showed that the time of travel to the nearest flow concentration is extremely important for determining the connectivity of a point in the landscape with the catchment outflow. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
We examined the applicability of the critical‐source area (CSA) concept to the dairy‐grazed 192‐ha Upper Toenepi catchment and its 8·7‐ha Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, New Zealand. We evaluated if phosphorus (P) transport from land into stream is dominated by saturation‐excess (SE) and infiltration‐excess (IE) runoff during stormflow and by sub‐surface (<1·5 m depth) flows during baseflow. We measured stream flow and shallow groundwater levels, collected monthly stream, tile drain (TDA) and groundwater samples, and flow‐proportional stream samples from the Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, and determined their dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. In the Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, during storm events, IE contributions were significant. Contributions from SE appeared significant in the Upper Toenepi catchment. However, in both catchments, sub‐surface contributions dominated stormflow and baseflow periods. Absence of water table at the surface and the water table gradient towards the stream indicated that P transport during events was not limited to surface runoff. The dynamics of the groundwater table and the occurrence of SE areas were influenced by proximity to the stream and hillslope positions. Baseflow accounted for 42% of the annual flow in the Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, and contributed 37 and 52% to the DRP and TP loads, respectively. The P transport during baseflow appeared equally important as P losses from CSAs during stormflow. The close resemblance in P levels between groundwater and stream samples during baseflow demonstrates the importance of shallow groundwater for stream flow. In the Upper Toenepi catchment, contributions from effluent ponds (EFFs) dominated P loads. Management strategies should focus on controlling P release from EFFs, and on decreasing Olsen P concentrations in soil to minimize leaching of P via sub‐surface flow to streams. Research is needed to quantify the role of sub‐surface flow as well as to expand management strategies to minimize P transfers during stormflow and baseflow conditions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Data collected in 4 years of field observations were used in conjunction with continuous simulation models to study, at the small‐basin scale, the water balance of a closed catchment‐lake system in a semi‐arid Mediterranean environment. The open water evaporation was computed with the Penman equation, using the data set collected in the middle of the lake. The surface runoff was partly measured at the main tributary and partly simulated using a distributed, catchment, hydrological model, calibrated with the observed discharge. The simplified structure of the developed modelling mainly concerns soil moisture dynamics and bedrock hydraulics, whereas the flow components are physically based. The calibration produced high efficiency coefficients and showed that surface runoff is greatly affected by soil water percolation into fractured bedrock. The bedrock reduces the storm‐flow peaks and the interflow and has important multi‐year effects on the annual runoff coefficients. The net subsurface outflow from the lake was calculated as the residual of the lake water balance. It was almost constant in the dry seasons and increased in the wet seasons, because of the moistening of the unsaturated soil. During the years of observation, rainfall 30% higher than average caused abundant runoff and a continuous rise in the lake water levels. The analysis allows to predict that, in years with lower than the average rainfall, runoff will be drastically reduced and will not be able to compensate for negative balance between precipitation and lake evaporation. Such highly unsteady situations, with great fluctuations in lake levels, are typical of closed catchment‐lake systems in the semi‐arid Mediterranean environment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
A quantitative, process relevant analysis of ten mesoscale (ca 10–90 km2) catchments in the Cairngorm mountains, Scotland was carried out using 10‐m digital terrain models (DTMs). This analysis produced a range of topographic indices that described differences in the landscape organisation of the catchments in a way that helped explain contrasts in their hydrology. Mean transit time (MTT)—derived from isotopic tracer data—was used as a metric that characterised differences in the hydrological function of the ten catchments. Some topographic indices exhibited significant correlations with MTT. Most notably, the ratio of the median flow path length to the median flow path gradient was negatively correlated with MTT, whilst the median upslope area was positively correlated. However, the relationships exhibited significant scatter which precluded their use as a predictive tool that could be applied to ungauged basins in this region. In contrast, maps of soil hydrological properties could be used to differentiate hydrologically responsive soils (which are dominated by overland flow and shallow sub‐surface storm flow) from free draining soils (that facilitate deeper sub‐surface flows). MTT was negatively correlated with the coverage of responsive soils in catchments. This relationship provided a much better basis for predicting MTT in ungauged catchments in this geomorphic province. In the Cairngorms, the extensive cover of various glacial drift deposits appears to be a first order control on soil distributions and strongly influences the porosity and permeability of the sub‐surface. These catchment characteristics result in soil cover being a much more discerning indicator of hydrological function than topography alone. The study highlights the potential of quantitative landscape analysis in catchment comparison and the need for caution in extrapolating relationships between landscape controls and metrics of hydrological function beyond specific geomorphic provinces. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
In the semi‐arid Mediterranean environment, the rainfall–runoff relationships are complex because of the markedly irregular patterns in rainfall, the seasonal mismatch between evaporation and rainfall, and the spatial heterogeneity in landscape properties. Watersheds often display considerable non‐linear threshold behavior, which still make runoff generation an open research question. Our objectives in this context were: to identify the primary processes of runoff generation in a small natural catchment; to test whether a physically based model, which takes into consideration only the primary processes, is able to predict spatially distributed water‐table and stream discharge dynamics; and to use the hydrological model to increase our understanding of runoff generation mechanisms. The observed seasonal dynamics of soil moisture, water‐table depth, and stream discharge indicated that Hortonian overland‐flow was negligible and the main mechanism of runoff generation was saturated subsurface‐flow. This gives rise to base‐flow, controls the formation of the saturated areas, and contributes to storm‐flow together with saturation overland‐flow. The distributed model, with a 1D scheme for the kinematic surface‐flow, a 2D sub‐horizontal scheme for the saturated subsurface‐flow, and ignoring the unsaturated flow, performed efficiently in years when runoff volume was high and medium, although there was a smoothing effect on the observed water‐table. In dry years, small errors greatly reduced the efficiency of the model. The hydrological model has allowed to relate the runoff generation mechanisms with the land‐use. The forested hillslopes, where the calibrated soil conductivity was high, were never saturated, except at the foot of the slopes, where exfiltration of saturated subsurface‐flow contributed to storm‐flow. Saturation overland‐flow was only found near the streams, except when there were storm‐flow peaks, when it also occurred on hillslopes used for pasture, where soil conductivity was low. The bedrock–soil percolation, simulated by a threshold mechanism, further increased the non‐linearity of the rainfall–runoff processes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Lu Zhuo  Qiang Dai  Dawei Han 《水文研究》2015,29(11):2463-2477
Hydrological models play a significant role in modelling river flow for decision making support in water resource management. In the past decades, many researchers have made a great deal of efforts in calibrating and validating various models, with each study being focused on one or two models. As a result, there is a lack of comparative analysis on the performance of those models to guide hydrologists to choose appropriate models for the individual climate and physical conditions. This paper describes a two‐level meta‐analysis to develop a matching system between catchment complexity (based on catchment significant features (CSFs)) and model types. The intention is to use the available CSF information for choosing the most suitable model type for a given catchment. In this study, the CSFs include the elements of climate, soil type, land cover and catchment scale. Specific choices of model types in small and medium catchments are further explored with all CSF information obtained. In particular, it is interesting to find that semi‐distributed models are the most suitable model type for catchments with the area over 3000 km2, regardless of other CSFs. The potential methodology for expanding the matching system between catchment complexity and model complexity is discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
A geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) rainfall‐runoff model was applied in a 31 km2 montane catchment in Scotland. Modelling was based on flow path length distributions derived from a digital terrain model (DTM). The model was applied in two ways; a single landscape unit response based on the DTM alone, and a two‐landscape unit response, which incorporated the distribution of saturated areas derived from field‐validated geographic information system (GIS) analysis based on a DTM and soil maps. This was to test the hypothesis that incorporation of process‐information would enhance the model performance. The model was applied with limited multiple event calibration to produce parameter sets which could be applied to a spectrum of events with contrasting characteristics and antecedent conditions. Gran alkalinity was used as a tracer to provide an additional objective measure for assessing model performance. The models captured the hydrological response dynamics of the catchment reasonably well. In general, the single landscape unit approach produced the best individual model performance statistics, though the two‐landscape unit approach provided a range of models, which bracketed the storm hydrograph response more realistically. There was a tendency to over‐predict the rising limb of the hydrograph, underestimate large storm event peaks and anticipate the hydrograph recession too rapidly. Most of these limitations could be explained by the simplistic assumptions embedded within the GIUH approach. The modelling also gave feasible predictions of stream water chemistry, though these could not be used as a basis for model rejection. Nevertheless, the study suggested that the approach has potential for prediction of hydrological response in ungauged montane headwater basins. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
The impact of road‐generated runoff on the hydrological response of a zero‐order basin was monitored for a sequence of 24 storm events. The study was conducted in a zero‐order basin (C1; 0·5ha) with an unpaved mountain road; an adjacent unroaded zero‐order basin (C2; 0·2 ha) with similar topography and lithology was used to evaluate the hydrological behaviour of the affected zero‐order basin prior to construction of the road. The impact of the road at the zero‐order basin scale was highly dependent on the antecedent soil‐moisture conditions, total storm precipitation, and to some extent rainfall intensity. At the beginning of the monitoring period, during dry antecedent conditions, road runoff contributed 50% of the total runoff and 70% of the peak flow from the affected catchment (C1). The response from the unroaded catchment was almost insignificant during dry antecedent conditions. As soil moisture increased, the road exerted less influence on the total runoff from the roaded catchment. For very wet conditions, the influence of road‐generated runoff on total outflow from the roaded catchment diminished to only 5·4%. Both catchments, roaded and unroaded, produced equivalent amount of outflow during very wet antecedent conditions on a unit area basis. The lag time between the rainfall and runoff peaks observed in the unroaded catchment during the monitoring period ranged from 0 to 4 h depending on the amount of precipitation and antecedent conditions, owing mainly to much slower subsurface flow pathways in the unroaded zero‐order basin. In contrast, the lag time in the roaded zero‐order basin was virtually nil during all storms. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
A geochemical and end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) is undertaken in Devil Canyon catchment, located in southern California, to further understanding of watershed behaviour and source water contributions after an acute and extensive wildfire. Physical and chemical transformations in post‐fire watersheds are known to increase overland flow and decrease infiltration, mainly due to formation of a hydrophobic layer at, or near, the soil surface. However, less is known about subsurface flow response in burned watersheds. The current study incorporates EMMA to evaluate and quantify source water contributions before, and after, a catchment affected by wildfires in southern California during the fall of 2003. Pre‐ and post‐fire stream water data were available at several sampling sites within the catchment, allowing the identification of contributing water sources at varying spatial scales. Proposed end‐member observations (groundwater, overland flow, shallow subsurface flow) were also collected to constrain and develop the catchment mixing model. Post‐fire source water changes are more evident in the smaller and faster responding sub‐basin (interior sampling point). Early post‐fire storm events are dominated by overland flow with no significant soil water or groundwater flow contribution. Inter‐storm streamwater in this smaller basin shows an increase in groundwater and a decrease in soil water. In the larger, baseflow‐dominated system, source water components appear less affected by fire. A slight increase in lateral flow is observed with only a slight decrease in baseflow. Changes in the post‐fire flow regimes affect nutrient loading and chemical response of the basin. Relatively rapid recovery of the chaparral ecosystem is evidenced, with active re‐growth and evapotranspiration evidenced by the fourth post‐fire rainy season. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
In many Alpine catchments the monitoring and hazard mitigation of debris‐flow events require enormous economic and social resources. To confront these problems, a subjective estimation of the most hazardous zones of the basin could be useful in the best, sustainable planning of protective measures. In this paper, a new methodology is proposed that develops a Management Priority Index (MPI) to rank sediment source areas by their quantitative capability to deliver debris‐flow volumes to a point of interest within the catchment. The MPI sets the intervention priority based on a combination of three sub‐indicators: a susceptibility indicator evaluating the overall catchment predisposition to generate debris flow, a triggering indicator and a volume budget indicator assessing the rate of deliverable volume to a selected outlet. MPI was applied to the basin of the Rio Gadria catchment (Venosta Valley, Bolzano, Italy), an alpine basin with an unlimited sediment supply that is characterized by multiple, very active, shallow landslides and bare soil zones. The proposed ranking method was successfully verified using post‐event surveys and through evidence from consolidation check dams built over many years in the basin. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
This work develops a top‐down modelling approach for storm‐event rainfall–runoff model calibration at unmeasured sites in Taiwan. Twenty‐six storm events occurring in seven sub‐catchments in the Kao‐Ping River provided the analytical data set. Regional formulas for three important features of a streamflow hydrograph, i.e. time to peak, peak flow, and total runoff volume, were developed via the characteristics of storm event and catchment using multivariate regression analysis. Validation of the regional formulas demonstrates that they reasonably predict the three features of a streamflow hydrograph at ungauged sites. All of the sub‐catchments in the study area were then adopted as ungauged areas, and the three streamflow hydrograph features were calculated by the regional formulas and substituted into the fuzzy multi‐objective function for rainfall–runoff model calibration. Calibration results show that the proposed approach can effectively simulate the streamflow hydrographs at the ungauged sites. The simulated hydrographs more closely resemble observed hydrographs than hydrographs synthesized using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) dimensionless unit hydrograph method, a conventional method for hydrograph estimation at ungauged sites in Taiwan. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Land cover changes associated with urbanization have negative effects on downstream ecosystems. Contemporary urban development attempts to mitigate these effects by designing stormwater infrastructure to mimic predevelopment hydrology, but their performance is highly variable. This study used in situ monitoring of recently built neighbourhoods to evaluate the catchment‐scale effectiveness of landscape decentralized stormwater control measures (SCMs) in the form of street connected vegetated swales for reducing runoff volumes and flow rates relative to curb‐and‐gutter infrastructure. Effectiveness of the SCMs was quantified by monitoring runoff for 8 months at the outlets of 4 suburban catchments (0.76–5.25 ha) in Maryland, USA. Three “grey” catchments installed curb‐and‐gutter stormwater conveyances, whereas the fourth “green” catchment built parcel‐level vegetated swales. The catchment with decentralized SCMs reduced runoff, runoff ratio, and peak runoff compared with the grey infrastructure catchments. In addition, the green catchment delayed runoff, resulting in longer precipitation–runoff lag times. Runoff ratios across the monitoring period were 0.13 at the green catchment and 0.37, 0.35, and 0.18 at the 3 grey catchments. Runoff only commenced after 6 mm of precipitation at the decentralized SCM catchment, whereas runoff occurred even during the smallest events at the grey catchments. However, as precipitation magnitudes reached 20 mm, the green catchment runoff characteristics were similar to those at the grey catchments, which made up 37% of the total precipitation in only 10 of 72 events. Therefore, volume‐based reduction goals for stormwater using decentralized SCMs such as vegetated swales require additional redundant SCMs in a treatment train as source control and/or end‐of‐pipe detention to capture a larger fraction of runoff and more effectively mimic predevelopment hydrology for the relatively rare but larger precipitation events.  相似文献   

19.
This paper addresses the application of a data‐based mechanistic (DBM) modelling approach using transfer function models (TFMs) with non‐linear rainfall filtering to predict runoff generation from a semi‐arid catchment (795 km2) in Tanzania. With DBM modelling, time series of rainfall and streamflow were allowed to suggest an appropriate model structure compatible with the data available. The model structures were evaluated by looking at how well the model fitted the data, and how well the parameters of the model were estimated. The results indicated that a parallel model structure is appropriate with a proportion of the runoff being routed through a fast flow pathway and the remainder through a slow flow pathway. Finally, the study employed a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology to evaluate the parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty based on the feasible parameter ranges chosen from the initial analysis of recession curves and calibration of the TFM. Results showed that parameters that control the slow flow pathway are relatively more sensitive than those that control the fast flow pathway of the hydrograph. Within the GLUE framework, it was found that multiple acceptable parameter sets give a range of predictions. This was found to be an advantage, since it allows the possibility of assessing the uncertainty in predictions as conditioned on the calibration data and then using that uncertainty as part of the decision‐making process arising from any rainfall‐runoff modelling project. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The response time (lag time) between rainfall input and run‐off output in headwater catchments is a key parameter for flood prediction. Lag times are expected to be controlled by run‐off processes, both on hillslopes and in channels. To demonstrate these effects on peak lag times within a 4.5‐km2 catchment, we measured stream water levels at up to 16 channel locations at 1‐min intervals and compared the lag times with topographic indices describing the length and gradient of the hillslope and channel flow path. We captured storm events with a total precipitation of 38–198 mm and maximum hourly precipitation intensity of 9–90 mm/hr. There were positive relationships between lag time and flow path length as well as the ratio of the flow path length and the square root of the gradient of channels for the most intense storms, demonstrating that channel flow paths generally defined the variation in lag times. Topographic analysis showed that hillslope flow path lengths were similar among locations, whereas channel flow path length increased almost one order of magnitude with a 100‐fold increase in catchment area. Thus, the relative importance of hillslope flow path decreased with increasing catchment area. Our results indicate that the variation in lag times is small when hillslopes are sufficiently wet; thus, catchment‐scale variation in lag times can be explained almost entirely by channel processes. Detailed topographic channel information can improve prediction of flood peak timing, whereas hillslopes can be treated as homogeneous during large flood events.  相似文献   

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