Climate change and hydrology at the prairie margin: Historic and prospective future flows of Canada's Red Deer and other Rocky Mountain rivers          下载免费PDF全文

Laurens J. Philipsen  Karen M. Gill  Anita Shepherd  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2669-2684

The South Saskatchewan River Basin of southern Alberta drains the transboundary central Rocky Mountains region and provides the focus for irrigation agriculture in Canada. Following extensive development, two tributaries, the Oldman and Bow rivers, were closed for further water allocations, whereas the Red Deer River (RDR) remains open. The RDR basin is at the northern limit of the North American Great Plains and may be suitable for agricultural expansion with a warming climate. To consider irrigation development and ecological impacts, it is important to understand the regional hydrologic consequences of climate change. To analyse historic trends that could extend into the future, we developed century‐long discharge records for the RDR, by coordinating data across hydrometric gauges, estimating annual flows from seasonal records, and undertaking flow naturalization to compensate for river regulation. Analyses indicated some coordination with the Pacific decadal oscillation and slight decline in summer and annual flows from 1912 to 2016 (?0.13%/year, Sen's slope). Another forecasting approach involved regional downscaling from the global circulation models, CGCMI‐A, ECHAM4, HadCM3, and NCAR‐CCM3. These projected slight flow decreases from the mountain headwaters versus increases from the foothills and boreal regions, resulting in a slight increase in overall river flows (+0.1%/year). Prior projections from these and other global circulation models ranged from slight decrease to slight increase, and the average projection of ?0.05%/year approached the empirical trend. Assessments of other rivers draining the central and northern Rocky Mountains revealed a geographic transition in flow patterns over the past century. Flows from the rivers in Southern Alberta declined (around ?0.15%/year), in contrast to increasing flows in north‐eastern British Columbia and the Yukon. The RDR watershed approaches this transition, and this study thus revealed regional differentiation in the hydrological consequences from climate change.  相似文献   

Temporal and spatial variability of extreme river flow quantiles in the Upper Vistula River basin,Poland          下载免费PDF全文

Agnieszka Rutkowska  Patrick Willems  Charles Onyutha  Wojciech Młocek 《水文研究》2017,31(7):1510-1526

Temporal and spatial variability in extreme quantile anomalies of seasonal and annual maximum river flows was studied for 41 gauging stations at rivers in the Upper Vistula River basin, Poland. Using the quantile perturbation method, the temporal variability in anomalies was analysed. Interdecadal oscillating components were extracted from the series of anomalies using the Hilbert‐Huang transform method. Period length, part of variance of each component, and part of unexplained variance were assessed. Results show an oscillating pattern in the temporal occurrence of extreme flow quantiles with clusters of high values in the 1960–1970s and since the late 1990s and of low values in the 1980s and at the beginning of the 1990s. The anomalies show a high variability on the right bank of the Upper Vistula River basin during the summer season with the highest values in catchments located in the western and south‐western parts of the basin. River flow extreme quantiles were found to be associated with large‐scale climatic variables from the regions of the North Atlantic Ocean, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Asia, and, to a lesser extent, the Pacific Ocean. Similarities between temporal variability of river flows and climatic factors were revealed. Results of the study are important for flood frequency analysis because a long observation period is necessary to capture clusters of high and low river flows.  相似文献   

A field investigation of the sediment transport characteristics of a high sediment load intermittent river in Taiwan     

Chih‐Chiang Su  Jau‐Yau Lu  Jian‐Hao Hong 《水文研究》2013,27(26):4043-4056

Most rivers in Taiwan are intermittent rivers with relatively steep slopes and carry rapid sediment‐laden flows during typhoon or monsoon seasons. A series of field experiments was conducted to collect suspended load data at the Tzu‐Chiang Bridge hydrological station of the lower Cho‐Shui River, which is a major river with the highest sediment yield in Taiwan. The river reach was aggrading with a high aspect ratio during the 1980s. Because of sand mining and extreme floods, it was incised and has had a relatively narrow main channel in recent years. The experimental results indicated that typical sediment transport equations can correctly predict the bed material load for low or medium sediment transport rates (e.g. less than about 1000 tons/day‐m). However, these equations far underestimate the bed material load for high sediment transport rates. The effects of cross‐sectional geometry change (i.e. river incision) and earthquakes on the sediment load were investigated in this study. An empirical sediment transport equation with consideration of the aspect ratio was also derived using the field data collected before and after river incision. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Simulation of river flow in Britain under climate change: Baseline performance and future seasonal changes     

Alison L. Kay 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14137

Climate change is likely to manifest in river flow changes across the globe, which could have wide-ranging consequences for society and the natural environment. A number of previous studies used the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) to investigate the potential impacts on river flows in Britain, but these projections were recently updated by the release of UKCP18, thus there is a need to update flow studies. Here, the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections are applied using a national-scale grid-based hydrological model, to investigate potential future changes in seasonal mean river flows across Great Britain. Analysis of hydrological model performance using baseline climate model data (1980–2010) shows relatively good agreement with use of observation-based data, particularly after application of a monthly precipitation bias-correction. Analysis of seasonal mean flow changes for two future time-slices (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) suggests large decreases in summer flows across the country (median −45% by 2050–2080), but possible increases in winter flows (median 9% by 2050–2080), especially in the north and west. Information on the potential range of flow changes using the latest projections is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies, and comparisons with previous projections can help update existing plans, although such comparisons are often not straightforward.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal dynamics of bacterial contamination in South France coastal rivers: focus on in‐stream processes during low flows and floods          下载免费PDF全文

Y. Chu  M. G. Tournoud  C. Salles  P. Got  J. L. Perrin  C. Rodier  A. Caro  M. Troussellier 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3300-3313

Faecal indicator bacteria (thermotolerant coliform and faecal streptococci) were enumerated in a Mediterranean coastal river to evaluate bacterial contamination levels in relation to hydrological conditions, to estimate delivery of bacterial loads to transitional and coastal waters (Thau lagoon) and to identify bacterial sources of pollution and their contribution to the bacterial flow. Results showed that (1) in low flow conditions, mean bacterial concentrations were higher than EU guidelines for bathing waters; (2) floods had higher concentrations of indicator bacteria than low flows; (3) low flow conditions represented a negligible proportion of bacterial loads compared with high flow and flood periods; (4) during medium and low flow conditions, bacteria were stored in riverbed fine sediments forming in‐stream stores that may be flushed during floods; (5) the first flush effect was highlighted during an early autumn flood as was the role of in‐stream stores during the course of the flood; and (6) point sources that continuously feed the river are contributing to the pool of bacteria accumulated in the riverbed sediment. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment,UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD     

H. L. Cloke  C. Jeffers  F. Wetterhall  T. Byrne  J. Lowe  F. Pappenberger 《水文研究》2010,24(24):3476-3489

The potential impact of climate change on areas of strategic importance for water resources remains a concern. Here, river flow projections for the River Medway, above Teston in southeast England are presented, which is just such an area of strategic importance. The river flow projections use climate inputs from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3) for the time period 1960–2080 (a subset of the early release UKCP09 projections). River flow predictions are calculated using CATCHMOD, the main river flow prediction tool of the Environment Agency (EA) of England and Wales. In order to use this tool in the best way for climate change predictions, model setup and performance are analysed using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The model's representation of hydrological processes is discussed and the direct percolation and first linear storage constant parameters are found to strongly affect model results in a complex way, with the former more important for low flows and the latter for high flows. The uncertainty in predictions resulting from the hydrological model parameters is demonstrated and the projections of river flow under future climate are analysed. A clear climate change impact signal is evident in the results with a persistent lowering of mean daily river flows for all months and for all projection time slices. Results indicate that a projection of lower flows under future climate is valid even taking into account the uncertainties considered in this modelling chain exercise. The model parameter uncertainty becomes more significant under future climate as the river flows become lower. This has significant implications for those making policy decisions based on such modelling results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Potentially modified hydropower production under climate change in the Italian Alps     

Giovanni Martino Bombelli  Andrea Soncini  Alberto Bianchi  Daniele Bocchiola 《水文研究》2019,33(17):2355-2372

We present an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower production within a paradigmatic, very highly exploited cryospheric area of upper Valtellina valley in the Italian Alps. Based on dependable and unique hydrological measures from our high‐altitude hydrometric network Idrostelvio during 2006–2015, we set up the Poly‐Hydro model to mimic the cryospheric processes driving hydrological flow formation in this high‐altitude area. We then set up an optimization tool, which we call Poly‐Power, to maximize the revenue of the plant manager under given hydrological regimes, namely, by proper operation of the hydroelectric production scheme (reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants) of the area. We then pursue hydrological projections until 2100, feeding Poly‐Hydro with the downscaled outputs of three general circulation models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, under the scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We assess hydrological flows in two reference decades, that is, at half century (2040–2049), and end of century (2090–2099). We then feed the so obtained hydrological scenarios as inputs to Poly‐Power, and we project future production of hydroelectric power, with and without reoperation of the system. The average annual stream flows for hydropower production decreases along the century under our scenarios (?21 to +7%, on average ? 5% at half century; ?17 to ?2%, average ? 8%, end of century), with ice cover melting unable to offset such decrease. Reduction in snowfall and increase in liquid rainfall are the main factors affecting the modified hydrological regime. Energy production (and revenues) at half century may increase under our scenarios (?9 to +15%, +3% on average). At the end of century in spite of a projected increase on average (?7 to +6%, +1% on average), under the warmest scenario RCP 8.5 decrease of energy production is consistently projected (?4% on average). Our results provide an array of potential scenarios of modified hydropower production under future climate change and may be used for brain storming of adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

Classification of low flow and hydrological drought for a river basin     

Tamara Tokarczyk 《Acta Geophysica》2013,61(2):404-421

The occurrence of drought is one of the characteristic features of Polish climate. Drought usually lasts for many weeks and covers considerable area causing economic and social losses. Due to the influence which drought has on environment, economy and society, more and more research and implementation works are devoted to issues concerning its occurrence, risk assessment, monitoring, and forecasting. Literature indicates that hydrological droughts are most often associated with low flow periods on rivers. The paper presents analyses of hydrological drought periods on the basis of hydrological drought index (HDI) for selected Nysa K?odzka study basin (SW part of Poland). Analyses were carried out in relation to the Maximum Credible Hydrological Drought (MCHD). In addition, attempts were taken to assess the hydrological drought based on atmospheric drought focused on application in ungauged basins in terms of hydrological monitoring.  相似文献   

Macroscale hydrological modelling approach for study of large scale hydrologic impacts under climate change in Indian river basins          下载免费PDF全文

D. Raje  P. Priya  R. Krishnan 《水文研究》2014,28(4):1874-1889

In climate‐change studies, a macroscale hydrologic model (MHM) operating over large scales can be an important tool in developing consistent hydrological variability estimates over large basins. MHMs, which can operate at coarse grid resolutions of about 1° latitude by longitude, have been used previously to study climate change impacts on the hydrology of continental scale or global river basins. They can provide a connection between global atmospheric models and water resource systems on large spatial scales and long timescales. In this study, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) MHM is used to study large scale hydrologic impacts of climate change for Indian river basins. Large‐scale changes in runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture for India, as well as station‐scale changes in discharges for three major river basins with distinct climatic and geographic characteristics are examined in this study. Climate model projections for meteorological variables (precipitation, temperature and wind speed) from three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios are used to drive the VIC MHM. GCM projections are first interpolated to a 1° by 1° hydrologic model grid and then bias‐corrected using a quantile–quantile mapping. The VIC model is able to reproduce observed statistics for discharges in the Ganga, Narmada and Krishna basins reasonably well, even at the coarse grid resolution employed using a calibration period for years 1965–1970 and testing period from 1971–1973/1974. An increasing trend is projected for summer monsoon surface runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture in most central Indian river basins, whereas a decrease in runoff and soil moisture is projected for some regions in southern India, with important differences arising from GCM and scenario variability. Discharge statistics show increases in mid‐flow and low flow at Farakka station on Ganga River, increased high flows at Jamtara station upstream of Narmada, and increased high, mid‐flow and low flow for Vijayawada station on Krishna River in the future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Improvement of surface run‐off in the hydrological model ParFlow by a scale‐consistent river parameterization     

Bernd Schalge  Vincent Haefliger  Stefan Kollet  Clemens Simmer 《水文研究》2019,33(14):2006-2019

We propose an improvement of the overland‐flow parameterization in a distributed hydrological model, which uses a constant horizontal grid resolution and employs the kinematic wave approximation for both hillslope and river channel flow. The standard parameterization lacks any channel flow characteristics for rivers, which results in reduced river flow velocities for streams narrower than the horizontal grid resolution. Moreover, the surface areas, through which these wider model rivers may exchange water with the subsurface, are larger than the real river channels potentially leading to unrealistic vertical flows. We propose an approximation of the subscale channel flow by scaling Manning's roughness in the kinematic wave formulation via a relationship between river width and grid cell size, following a simplified version of the Barré de Saint‐Venant equations (Manning–Strickler equations). The too large exchange areas between model rivers and the subsurface are compensated by a grid resolution‐dependent scaling of the infiltration/exfiltration rate across river beds. We test both scaling approaches in the integrated hydrological model ParFlow. An empirical relation is used for estimating the true river width from the mean annual discharge. Our simulations show that the scaling of the roughness coefficient and the hydraulic conductivity effectively corrects overland flow velocities calculated on the coarse grid leading to a better representation of flood waves in the river channels.  相似文献   

Repeated high flows drive morphological change in rivers in recently deglaciated catchments     

Lawrence J. B. Eagle  Jonathan L. Carrivick  Alexander M. Milner  Lee E. Brown  Megan J. Klaar 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(7):1294-1310

Climate change is decreasing glacier cover and increasing the frequency and magnitude of precipitation-driven high flows and floods in many regions of the world. Precipitation may become the dominant water source for river systems in recently deglaciated catchments, with major rainfall events driving significant changes in river channel morphology. Few studies, however, have examined river channel response to repeated precipitation-driven high flows. In this study, we measured the geomorphological condition of four low-order rivers in recently deglaciated catchments (70–210 years ice free) before and after a series of repeated precipitation-driven high flows during summer 2014. High flows drove substantial initial morphological change, with up to 75% change in baseflow channel planform position and active channel form change from pre- to post-high flow. Post-high flow years were associated with increased instream wood and geomorphological complexity at all but the youngest river. Channel changes were part of an active relaxation stage at all rivers, where channels continued to migrate, and complexity varied through time. Overall, these measurements permit us to propose a conceptual model of the role of geomorphologically effective high flows in the context of paraglacial adjustment theory. Specifically, we suggest that older rivers in recently deglaciated catchments can undergo a short-term (<10 years) increase in the rate of geomorphological development as a result of the recruitment of instream wood and channel migration during and following repeated precipitation-driven high flows. Enhancing our knowledge of these geomorphological and paraglacial processes in response to high flows is important for the effective management of riverine water and ecosystem resources in rapidly changing environments.  相似文献   

Estimation of uncertainty sources in the projections of Lithuanian river runoff   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Jurate Kriauciuniene  Darius Jakimavicius  Diana Sarauskiene  Tadas Kaliatka 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(4):769-784

Particular attention is given to the reliability of hydrological modelling results. The accuracy of river runoff projection depends on the selected set of hydrological model parameters, emission scenario and global climate model. The aim of this article is to estimate the uncertainty of hydrological model parameters, to perform sensitivity analysis of the runoff projections, as well as the contribution analysis of uncertainty sources (model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models) in forecasting Lithuanian river runoff. The impact of model parameters on the runoff modelling results was estimated using a sensitivity analysis for the selected hydrological periods (spring flood, winter and autumn flash floods, and low water). During spring flood the results of runoff modelling depended on the calibration parameters that describe snowmelt and soil moisture storage, while during the low water period—the parameter that determines river underground feeding was the most important. The estimation of climate change impact on hydrological processes in the Merkys and Neris river basins was accomplished through the combination of results from A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios and global climate models (ECHAM5 and HadCM3). The runoff projections of the thirty-year periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) were conducted applying the HBV software. The uncertainties introduced by hydrological model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models were presented according to the magnitude of the expected changes in Lithuanian rivers runoff. The emission scenarios had much greater influence on the runoff projection than the global climate models. The hydrological model parameters had less impact on the reliability of the modelling results.  相似文献   

Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Renata J. Romanowicz  Ewa Bogdanowicz  Sisay E. Debele  Joanna Doroszkiewicz  Hege Hisdal  Deborah Lawrence  Hadush K. Meresa  Jaroslaw J. Napiórkowski  Marzena Osuch  Witold G. Strupczewski  Donna Wilson  Wai Kwok Wong 《Acta Geophysica》2016,64(2):477-509

This paper presents the background, objectives, and preliminary outcomes from the first year of activities of the Polish–Norwegian project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes). The project aims to estimate the influence of climate changes on extreme river flows (low and high) and to evaluate the impact on the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes. Eight “twinned” catchments in Poland and Norway serve as case studies. We present the procedures of the catchment selection applied in Norway and Poland and a database consisting of near-natural ten Polish and eight Norwegian catchments constructed for the purpose of climate impact assessment. Climate projections for selected catchments are described and compared with observations of temperature and precipitation available for the reference period. Future changes based on those projections are analysed and assessed for two periods, the near future (2021–2050) and the far-future (2071–2100). The results indicate increases in precipitation and temperature in the periods and regions studied both in Poland and Norway.  相似文献   

Hydrological characterization of dammed rivers in the NW Mediterranean region          下载免费PDF全文

Gemma Piqué  Ramon J. Batalla  Sergi Sabater 《水文研究》2016,30(11):1691-1707

Water scarcity and climatic variability in the Mediterranean region have traditionally required the construction of dams to guarantee water supply for irrigation, industrial and urban uses and hydropower production. Reservoirs affect the hydrology of the river downstream, but the magnitude and persistence of these effects are still poorly unknown. Understanding the magnitude of these effects is the objective of this paper, in which we analyse the flow regimes of twelve rivers located in the NW Mediterranean region. Different temporal scales (daily, monthly and annual) are used for the analysis and also to estimate flow variables associated with flow magnitude, frequency, duration and variability. It is shown that dams alter the hydrological regime of most of the studied rivers, with special influence on monthly flows and flood magnitude and frequency. The most altered rivers (Muga and Siurana, NE Iberian Peninsula) experience a complete overturn in their flow regime with, for instance, flood reduction reaching up to 76% for the 2‐year flood event. Other rivers showed lower changes in hydrology (e.g. Orb and Têt). Annual runoff showed a pattern of decrease in all the studied rivers (regulated and non‐regulated) indicating that besides dams (i.e. reservoir evaporation), other factors likely affect water yield. A general recovery downstream from dams is also observed at all temporal scales, mainly because of the inflow from tributaries. Although dams have a clear impact on the hydrology of Mediterranean rivers, water withdrawals and diversions for irrigation and other consumptive uses also affected the hydrological patterns. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impacts of rising water demands in the Juba and Shabelle river basins on water availability in south Somalia     

Mirja Michalscheck  Georg Petersen  Hussein Gadain 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1877-1889

ABSTRACT

Somalia has frequently been affected by droughts, famines and water-related humanitarian crises. Water is scarce and the only perennial streams, the Juba and Shabelle rivers, are trans-boundary with river flows mainly originating from the Ethiopian highlands. In both riparian countries water demands are projected to increase. This paper reveals the impact of rising regional water abstractions on stream flows by illustrating sectoral demands and joining them into scenarios of medium and high population and economic growth. These scenarios are associated to the time horizons of 2035 and 2055, respectively. The scenarios disclose alarming trends especially for the Shabelle River: in the medium and high growth scenarios, water demands surpass the available river flows by 200 and 3500 hm³, respectively. The calculated deficits partly derive from conflicting assumptions about river flows by the two main riparian countries, an obstacle to any integrated planning efforts and sustained regional development.