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1.
黄河与长江流域水资源变化原因 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用1951～2008年黄河与长江流域逐月降水和径流资料,对流域年径流变化进行趋势性检验,分析年降水量和径流量的相关关系变化,比较不同时段流域降水和径流的变化趋势和双累积曲线,以及径流对降水的敏感性变化.结果表明,黄河干流上游年降水量微弱下降,中下游降水减少趋势显著,为8.8～9.8mm/10a;而全流域径流量均呈现显著递减的趋势,为7.8～10.8mm/10a(通过95%置值度检验);径流系数也明显下降,下降范围为0.013～0.019/10a,流域产流能力下降,径流减少趋势在20世纪80年代末至90年代初发生突变.长江流域大部降水减少趋势显著,为18.2～24.7mm/10a;上游(寸滩站,宜昌站)径流减少趋势显著,为9.9～7.2mm/10a,中游(汉口站)和下游(大通站)径流呈微弱下降趋势,为2.9～2.1mm/10a;长江流域上游径流系数增加不显著,中下游径流系数呈显著增加趋势,速率分别0.005/10a和0.005/10a,表明中下游产流能力增强.根据水文参数公式计算,与1951～1969年相比,1970～2008年,降水减少和人类活动引起的下垫面变化对黄河流域径流减少量的贡献率分别为11%和83%;在长江流域,降水减少对径流量变化的贡献占29%,人类活动引起的径流量增加占71%.1980～2008年,黄河流域由于下垫面变化造成径流量减少的比例在兰州、三门峡、花园口、利津分别为97%,83%,83%和91%,降水引起的径流量减少比例分别为3%,17%,17%和9%.长江流域降水减少对寸滩、宜昌、汉口、大通径流量减少的贡献分别为89%,74%,43%和35%,下垫面变化对径流增量的贡献分别为11%,26%,57%和65%.人类活动的作用强度逐年增大,2000年之后,下垫面变化对黄河、长江流域径流变化量的贡献率上升到84%和73%.下垫面变化引起了黄河下游径流减少和长江下游径流增加,在干旱区和湿润区对径流变化的作用相反.造成这一现象的原因是:黄河流域人类的活动用水量的增加直接造成径流减少;长江流域因太阳辐射下降引起实际蒸发量下降,同时湖泊面积减少,下垫面硬化也在一定程度上造成产流能力增加. 相似文献
2.
马营河流域1967~2000年土地利用变化对河流径流的影响 总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18
自1960年代以来, 干旱内陆流域土地利用格局发生了以耕地持续扩张和天然林草地不断减少的剧烈变化, 分析流域土地利用变化对水文过程的影响对于流域管理十分重要. 以河西走廊中部的马营河流域为例, 选择年径流量、基流量、最大洪峰流量以及流域典型的春季和秋季汛期流量为径流过程参量, 基于流域降水和径流各参量的变化趋势分析和显著的统计回归关系分析, 区别了气候变化对径流过程的影响. 利用1956年以来4期土地利用变化数据, 分析了耕地土地利用和径流过程各参量之间的定量关系, 建立了基于降水和耕地面积两种因素的径流过程统计模拟模型, 研究结果表明, 1967年以来, 由于流域土地利用变化, 尤其是上游林草地大规模转为耕地, 使流域年均径流量减少28.12%, 基流量减少35.32%, 最大洪峰流量减少35.77%, 春季和秋季的平均季节流量分别减少了36.05%和24.87%, 其中耕地面积扩张对年径流量的影响贡献率在77%~80%, 对春季流量的影响贡献率在73%~80%, 对基流量的影响贡献率在62%~65%之间, 流域冬春季节的持续升温也对春季径流减少具有一定影响; 合理规划流域土地利用格局, 对于流域水资源可持续利用河流域可持续发展具有重要意义. 相似文献
3.
人工神经网络模型预测气候变化对博斯腾湖流域径流影响 总被引：9，自引：3，他引：6
温室气体排放量增加造成气候变化,对全球资源环境产生重要影响．本文利用人工神经网络模型建立月降水、气温与径流关系,利用开都河流域降水、气温、径流资料对模型进行训练和验证,通过试算法确定网络模型结构,气温升高和降水量增加对径流影响的敏感程度分析表明,气温升高和降水增加对该区域径流影响较大,且气温升高的影响更为显著,径流增加主要集中在夏季,根据区域气候模型（RCMs）推算的CO2加倍情况下西北地区气候的可能变化,预测位于博斯腾湖流域的开都河大山口站年径流量增加38．6％,其中夏季增加71．8％,冬季增加11．4％。 相似文献
4.
为探索三峡水库运行前后长江中下游干流及两湖径流过程的变化及其驱动因素,利用宜昌、监利、大通、七里山、湖口共5个水文站的流量资料,分析了各站径流过程的变化特征及其成因。结论:(1)各站年径流量均减少,但除七里山站之外,其它各站减少比例均小于10%且变化不显著;(2)干流各站月径流量最大减幅发生在10月,而七里山站、湖口站分别发生在7月、4月;(3)干流各站月径流量最大增幅发生在3月,而七里山站、湖口站分别发生在1月、6月;(4)宜昌站,1—4月径流量增加是三峡水库入库径流增加和水库调度的共同作用结果,6—8月径流量减少的主因是三峡水库入库径流量减少,5、9、10月径流量变化的主因是三峡水库调度;(5)监利站,径流量的变化与宜昌站表现出高度的一致性,但冬季各月径流量的增幅均大于宜昌站;(6)大通站,4—6月径流量变化方向与湖口站一致,其它月份变化方向均与宜昌站一致。(7)七里山站,7月径流量减少的主因是洞庭湖流域来水减少,9、10月径流量减少的主要原因是荆江分流减少,但洞庭湖流域来水减少也是重要原因。(8)湖口站,4、5月径流量减少的主因是流域降水减少,9、10月径流量减少的主要原因是鄱阳... 相似文献
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6.
西北干旱区内陆河流域出山径流变化趋势对气候变化响应模型 总被引：50，自引：3，他引：47
将HBV径流模型进行改进 ,使之适合于中国西北干旱区内陆河山区流域的特征及径流形成过程 ,从而建立了用以模拟出山月径流量对气候变化响应的模型 .以河西走廊黑河山区流域为例 ,对不同的年平均气温和年降水量的变化趋势条件下出山径流的响应进行了模拟计算 .结果表明 ,如到 2 0 30年气温升高 0 .5℃ ,降水保持不变 ,5月和 1 0月的径流量将增加 ,这表明积雪融水对河流的补给将增加 ,但 7月和8月由于蒸发量的增加将使径流量有所减少 ,致使年径流量将减少 4% .如降水保持不变 ,气温升高 1℃时 ,除 5 ,6月份径流量有所增加外 ,7,8月份的径流量将减少较多 ,而年径流量将减少 7.1 1 % .若气温保持不变 ,降水量增加 1 0 % ,径流量将增加5 2 7% ;降水量增加 2 0 % ,径流量将增加 1 2 .35 % .当气温升高 0 .5℃ ,降水增加 1 0 %时 ,径流量仅增加 1 .6 2 % . 相似文献
7.
气候变化对沅江流域径流影响研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
温室气体排放量增加造成气候变化,对全球资源环境产生重要影响.本文在水量平衡基础上,建立考虑气象要素和地形变化的月水文模型,利用实测径流资料对模型在时空尺度上进行验证.利用全球气候模型(GCMs)预测的未来气候变化情形,对处于湿润区的沅江流域径流过程进行预测.分析结果表明,该区域径流过程对降雨和气温变化十分敏感.根据英国Hadcm2模型对本世纪中叶气候变化预测结果,沅江流域未来年降雨量减少0.43%气温升高1.55℃,丰水期降雨增加,而枯水期将有较大幅度减少.年径流量相应减少6.8%,丰水期径流量增大11%,枯水期径流减少47%,不利于防洪和水资源开发利用. 相似文献
8.
气候变化对中国内陆干旱区山区融雪径流的影响 总被引：29，自引：0，他引：29
气候变化对中纬度山区积雪具有极强的影响, 同时雪盖时空变化和融雪径流的波动被认为是气候变化的指示器. 本研究选择祁连山黑河流域作为中国西北地区山区积雪流域的典型区域, 分析了自1956~2001年近40余年以来气温、降水、累计降雪变化的状况和特点以及春季融雪径流的波动趋势. 结果表明: 黑河上游山区积雪流域的气候变化主要表现在年平均气温的缓慢上升而年降水基本平稳, 累积降雪量也处于波动变化之中. 年内气温的上升幅度以1~2月份比较强烈而其他月份气温上升幅度较小. 利用基于度-日因子算法的融雪径流模型SRM(Snowmelt Runoff Model)模拟气温上升框架下的融雪径流变化情势结果表明山区积雪流域融雪期在时间上的前移, 同时春季融雪径流量呈显著增加趋势且受径流周期变化控制. 相似文献
9.
全球气候变化对新疆塔里木河流域水资源的可能性影响 总被引：35，自引：2，他引：35
结合77个气象站近50年的水文气象资料, 探讨了全球气候变化与塔里木河流域水资源变化间的相互关系. 通过参数和非参数检验, 发现了包括温度、降水和流量在内的水文时间序列的长期趋势. 检验了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动与3种时间序列间的可能联系. 研究结果表明, 在过去50年里, 温度在5%的置信水平下呈单调上升趋势, 降水也表现出了增加的趋势. 相应的时间序列在1986年附近有一个明显的跳跃, 这可能是气候变化影响的结果. 塔里木河源流区的径流量虽然呈现出明显的增加趋势, 但干流的径流量呈下降趋势. 研究结果表明, 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动与研究区内近50年的温度、降水、径流间不存在明显的联系. 塔里木河干流的水量缩减、河流干涸和生态系统恶化主要是人类活动造成的. 相似文献
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气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域赣江径流影响的定量分析 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
气候变化和人类活动对流域径流影响的定量研究是当前研究的热点,赣江作为鄱阳湖流域最大的子流域,径流变化对鄱阳湖湿地水生态系统具有重要的影响.利用Mann-Kendall突变检验分析了赣江流域径流1955—2010年间演变趋势,再分别应用统计方法和IHACRES集总式模型分析气候要素和人类活动对径流的影响.研究表明IHACRES能够较好地模拟赣江流域径流,适用于中亚热带湿润季风气候区.Mann-Kendall突变检验表明赣江流域径流在1979年发生突变,可划分为1955—1979年和1980—2010年两个时段.降水是影响赣江流域径流年际变化的主要因素,而土地利用等人类活动的影响并不明显.水库建设显著影响赣江径流的季节分配,1980—2010年间人类活动影响更加显著,其中45%的年份秋季径流增加50%以上,26%的年份秋季径流增加超过100%,其中1989年的秋季径流增加幅度达到320%. 相似文献
11.
A spatial assessment of hydrologic alteration caused by dam construction in the middle and lower Yellow River,China 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
The ‘range of variability approach’ (RVA) and mapping technique are used to investigate the spatial variability of hydrologic alterations (HA) due to dam construction along the middle and lower Yellow River, China, over the past five decades. The impacts of climate variability on hydrological process have been removed during wet and dry periods and the focus is on the impacts of human activities, such as dam construction, on hydrological processes. Results indicate the following: (1) The impacts of the Sanmenxia reservoir on the hydrologic alteration are relatively slight with a mean HA value of 0·48, ranking in the last place among the four large reservoirs. (2) Xiaolangdi reservoir has significantly changed the natural flow regime downstream with mean HA value of 0·56, ranking it in first place among the large reservoirs. (3) The results of ranked median degrees of 33 hydrologic alteration indicators for 10 stations in the Yellow River show that the hydrologic alteration of Huayuankou ranks the highest among 10 stream gauges. (4) Impacts of reservoirs on hydrological processes downstream of the dams are closely associated with the regulating activities of the reservoirs. At the same time, alterations of streamflow regimes resulting from climatic changes (e.g. precipitation variability) make the situation more complicated and more hydrological observations will be necessary for further analysis. The results of the current study will be greatly beneficial to the regional water resources management and restoration of eco‐environmental systems in the middle and lower Yellow River characterized by intensified dam construction under a changing environment. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in semiarid regions: a case study of the Wei River basin,China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activity on the hydrological processes in river basins is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining local economic development. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate variability and human activity on mean annual flow in the Wei River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and wavelet transform were applied to detect the variations of hydrometeorological variables in the semiarid Wei River basin in the northwestern China. The identifications were based on streamflow records from 1958 to 2008 at four hydrological stations as well as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 21 climate stations. A simple method based on Budyko curve was used to evaluate potential impacts of climate change and human activities on mean annual flow. The results show that annual streamflow decreased because of the reduced precipitation and increased PET at most stations. Both annual and seasonal precipitation and PET demonstrated mixed trends of decreasing and increasing, although significant trends (P < 0.05) were consistently detected in spring and autumn at most stations. Significant periodicities of 0.5 and 1 year (P < 0.05) were examined in all the time series. The spectrum of streamflow at the Huaxian station shows insignificant annual cycle during 1971–1975, 1986–1993 and 1996–2008, which is probably resulted from human activities. Climate variability greatly affected water resources in the Beiluo River, whereas human activities (including soil and water conservation, irrigation, reservoirs construction, etc.) accounted more for the changes of streamflow in the area near the Huaxian station during different periods. The results from this article can be used as a reference for water resources planning and management in the semiarid Wei River basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
量化气候变化和人类活动对流域水文影响及其对流域水资源规划和管理具有重要的理论与现实意义.采用水文模型和多元回归法定量分析气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖"五河"径流的影响,并通过与灵敏度分析法对比来进一步验证分析结果 .研究表明,1970-2009年,气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流增加的贡献率分别为73%和27%.气候变化是饶河、信江和赣江径流增加的主导因素,而人类活动是修水径流增加的主要因素,是抚河径流减少的主要原因.另外,不同季节影响径流变化的主导因素又有不同,人类活动为干季(11月到次年2月)径流增加和湿季(4-6月)径流减小的主导因素,其贡献率分别为78.9%和82.7%.本研究可为鄱阳湖流域防洪抗旱及水资源优化配置提供重要科学依据. 相似文献
14.
Xinjun Tu Qiang Zhang Vijay P. Singh Xiaohong Chen Chun-Ling Liu Shao-Bo Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2012,26(6):823-834
Due to the influence of climate change and human activities, more and more regions around the world are nowadays facing serious water shortages. This is particularly so with the Guangdong province, an economically prosperous region in China. This study aims at understanding the abrupt behavior of hydrological processes by analyzing monthly precipitation series from 257 rain gauging stations and monthly streamflow series from 25 hydrological stations using the likelihood ratio statistic and schwarz information criterion (SIC). The underlying causes of the changing properties of hydrological processes are investigated by analyzing precipitation changes and information of water reservoirs. It is found that (1) streamflow series in dry season seems to exhibit abrupt changes when compared to that in the flood season; (2) abrupt changes in the values of mean and variance of hydrological variables in the dry season are more common than those in the streamflow series in the flood season, which implies that streamflow in the dry season is more sensitive to human activities and climate change than that in the flood season; (3) no change points are identified in the annual precipitation and precipitation series in the flood season. Annual streamflow and streamflow in the flood season exhibit no abrupt changes, showing the influence of precipitation on streamflow changes in the flood season. However, streamflow changes in the dry season seem to be heavily influenced by hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. The results of this study are of practical importance for regional water resource management in the Guangdong province. 相似文献
15.
Investigating the changes in streamflow regimes in response to various influencing factors contributes to our understanding of the mechanisms of hydrological processes in different watersheds and to water resource management strategies. This study examined streamflow regime changes by applying the indicators of hydrologic alteration method and eco-flow metrics to daily runoff data (1965–2016) from the Sandu, Hulu and Dali Rivers on the Chinese Loess Plateau, and then determined their responses to terracing, afforestation and damming. The Budyko water balance equation and the double mass curve method were used to separate the impacts of climate change and human activities on the mean discharge changes. The results showed that the terraced and dammed watersheds exhibited significant decreases in annual runoff. All hydrologic metrics indicated that the highest degree of hydrologic alteration was in the Sandu River watershed (terraced), where the monthly and extreme flows reduced significantly. In contrast, the annual eco-deficit increased significantly, indicating the highest reduction in streamflow among the three watersheds. The regulation of dams and reservoirs in the Dali River watershed has altered the flow regime, and obvious decreases in the maximum flow and slight increases in the minimum flow and baseflow indices were observed. In the Hulu River watershed (afforested), the monthly flow and extreme flows decreased slightly and were categorized as low-degree alteration, indicating that the long-term delayed effects of afforestation on hydrological processes. The magnitude of the eco-flow metrics varied with the alteration of annual precipitation. Climate change contributed 67.47% to the runoff reduction in the Hulu River watershed, while human activities played predominant roles in reducing runoff in the Sandu and Dali River watersheds. The findings revealed distinct patterns and causes of streamflow regime alteration due to different conservation measures, emphasizing the need to optimize the spatial allocation of measures to control soil erosion and utilize water resources on the Loess Plateau. 相似文献
16.
Spatio-temporal changes and their relationship in water resources and agricultural disasters across China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Changes in monthly streamflow and the potential influences and feedbacks of agricultural activities are investigated. Significant decreases in streamflow are observed in northern China, including the Yellow, Huaihe and Haihe river basins, while in southern China streamflow increases significantly in the Yangtze, Pearl and South river basins. This spatial pattern of changes in streamflow indicates that the imbalance in water resources between northern (dry) and southern (wet) China has increased during past decades. On the one hand, available water resources are a controlling factor determining the expansion of irrigated land and the structure of crop plantation (i.e. rice, wheat, corn or bean); on the other hand, crop planting structure and effective irrigated areas are important determinants of changes in streamflow. The increasing effective irrigation and rice planting areas in northern China may increase water withdrawal from rivers, causing subsequent decreases in streamflow, while in southeastern China, decreasing effective irrigation areas enhance the increases in streamflow. 相似文献
17.
Abstract Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China, and plays a major role in flood mitigation, restoration and conservation of the ecological environment in the middle Yangtze River basin. Sediment load and streamflow variations in Poyang Lake basin are important for the scouring and deposition changes of this lake. However, these hydrological processes are heavily influenced by human activities, such as construction of water reservoirs, and land-use/land cover changes. By thorough analysis of long series of sediment and streamflow obtained from five major hydrological stations, we systematically investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of these hydrological processes and the hydrological responses to human activities using the Mann-Kendall trend test, the double cumulative mass curve and the linear regression method. The results show: (1) no significant change in streamflow followed by an increasing tendency after the 1990s that turns to be decreasing about 2000; and (2) a sharp increase of sediment load during the late 1960s and 1970s triggered by extensive deforestation (during the “Cultural Revolution” in China) followed by a tendency to decrease after the early 1980s. Construction of water reservoirs has greatly reduced the sediment load of the Poyang Lake basin, and this is particularly the case in the Ganjiang River, where the sediment load changes may be attributed to the trapping effects of the Wan'an Reservoir, the largest water reservoir within the Poyang Lake basin. There is no evidence to corroborate the influence of water reservoirs on the streamflow variations. It seems that the streamflow variations are subject mainly to precipitation changes, but this requires further analysis. The current study may be of scientific and practical benefit in the conservation and restoration of Poyang Lake, as a kind of wetland, and also in flood mitigation in the middle Yangtze River basin that is under the influence of human activities. Citation Zhang, Q., Sun, P., Jiang, T. & Chen, X.-H. (2011) Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological processes and their hydrological responses to human activities in the Poyang Lake basin, China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 305–318. 相似文献
18.
ABSTRACTUnder the combined influence of climate changes and human activities, the hydrological regime of the Wei River shows remarkable variations which have caused many issues in the Wei River in recent decades, such as a lack of freshwater, water pollution, disastrous flooding and channel sedimentation. Hence, hydrological regime changes and potential human-induced impacts have been drawing increasing attention from local government and hydrologists. This study investigates hydrological regime changes in the natural and measured runoff series at four hydrological stations on the main Wei River and quantifies features of their long-term change by analysing their historical annual and seasonal runoff data using several approaches, i.e., continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet, wavelet coherence, trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall test and detrended fluctuation analysis. By contrasting two different analysis results between natural and measured river runoff series, the impacts of human activities on the long-term hydrological regime were investigated via the changes of spatio-temporal distribution in dominant periods, the trends and long-range memory of river runoff. The results show : (a) that periodic properties of the streamflow changes are the result of climate, referring to precipitation changes in particular, while human activities play a minor role; (b) a significant decreasing trend can be observed in the natural streamflow series along the entire main stream of the Wei River and the more serious decrease emerging in measured flow should result from human-induced influences in recent decades; and (c) continuous decreasing streamflow in the Wei River will trigger serious shortages of freshwater in the future, which may challenge the sustainability and safety of water resources development in the river basin, and should be paid great attention before 2020.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed 相似文献
19.
Trend,periodicity and abrupt change in streamflow of the East River,the Pearl River basin 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2 
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下载免费PDF全文 The East River in the Pearl River basin, China, plays a vital role in the water supply for mega‐cities within and in the vicinity of the Pearl River Delta. Knowledge of statistical variability of streamflow is therefore important for water resources management in the basin. This study analyzed streamflow from four hydrological stations on the East River for a period of 1951–2009, using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) technique, scanning t and F tests. Results indicated increasing/decreasing streamflow in the East River basin before/after the 1980s. After the early 1970s, the high/low flow components were decreasing/increasing. CWT‐based analysis demonstrates a significant impact of water reservoirs on the periodicity of streamflow. Scanning t and F test indicates that significantly abrupt changes in streamflow are largely influenced by both water reservoirs construction and precipitation changes. Thus, changes of streamflow, which are reflected by variations of trend, periodicity and abrupt change, are due to both water reservoir construction and precipitation changes. Further, the changes of volume of streamflow in the East River are in good agreement with precipitation changes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin 总被引：35，自引：1，他引：34
CHEN Yaning & XU Zongxue Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi China College of Environmental Sciences Beijing Normal University Beijing China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(1):65-73
Combining the temperature and precipitation data from 77 climatological stations and the climatic and hydrological change data from three headstreams of the Tarim River: Hotan, Yarkant, and Aksu in the study area, the plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin in recent years was investigated, the long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and stream-flow was detected, and the possible association between the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series was tested. The results obtained in this study show that during the past years, the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the speed of 5%, nearly 1℃rise; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s, and a significant increase in the 1980s and 1990s, the average annual precipitation was increased with the magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and 相似文献