共查询到10条相似文献，搜索用时 875 毫秒
1.
The accuracy of an optimum interpolation technique in filling missing values in multichannel (or multisite) hydrologic series containing time-coincident data gaps is examined. The applied methodology is based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) of spectral estimation or multivariate autoregressive modeling and heavily depends upon the properties of multichannel prediction error filter (PEF). Six precipitation time series spatially located within a hydrologic basin are used and time-coincident artificial gaps are created in all six series. The performance of the technique is assessed by comparing the filled-in series to the observed and by employing spectral analysis. The results reveal the usefulness of the method in multichannel hydrologic analysis. 相似文献
2.
N. R. Dalezios P. A. Tyraskis 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1990,4(1):43-53
The accuracy of an optimum interpolation technique in filling missing values in multichannel (or multisite) hydrologic series containing time-coincident data gaps is examined. The applied methodology is based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) of spectral estimation or multivariate autoregressive modeling and heavily depends upon the properties of multichannel prediction error filter (PEF). Six precipitation time series spatially located within a hydrologic basin are used and time-coincident artificial gaps are created in all six series. The performance of the technique is assessed by comparing the filled-in series to the observed and by employing spectral analysis. The results reveal the usefulness of the method in multichannel hydrologic analysis. 相似文献
3.
Sanghyun Kim 《水文研究》2012,26(22):3434-3447
The vertical and lateral profiles of temporal variations in soil moisture are important for understanding the hydrological process along hillside transects. In this study, relationships among measured soil moistures were explored to configure the hydrological contributions of different flowpaths. All the measured soil moistures included a common stochastic structure because rainfall, the hydrometeological driver, is the main factor that determines the soil moisture response feature, and the infiltration process through the topsoil at a shallow depth is also common in all measured soil moisture histories. Therefore, the relationships between the measured series are also affected by both rainfall and topsoil infiltration. The common stochastic structure of the soil moisture series was removed via a prewhitening procedure. A systematic analysis procedure is presented to delineate the exclusive causal relationships among multiple soil moisture measurements. A monitoring system based on multiplexed time domain reflectometry was used to obtain soil moisture time series along two transects on a steep hillslope during the rainy season. The application of the proposed method for monitoring points in two adjacent locations provided 8, 12, 14, and 13, 16, 22 causal relationships for vertical, lateral in parallel, and diagonal directions, respectively, along the two transects. The point‐based contributions of the internal flowpath can be evaluated as the correlation is normalized in the context of inflow and outflow. The hydrological processes in the soil layer, vertical flow, lateral flow, downslope recharge, and return flow were quantified, and the relative importance of each hydrological component was determined to improve our understanding of the hydrological processes along the two transects of the study area. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
This paper develops concepts and methods to study stochastic hydrologic models. Problems regarding the application of the existing stochastic approaches in the study of groundwater flow are acknowledged, and an attempt is made to develop efficient means for their solution. These problems include: the spatial multi-dimensionality of the differential equation models governing transport-type phenomena; physically unrealistic assumptions and approximations and the inadequacy of the ordinary perturbation techniques. Multi-dimensionality creates serious mathematical and technical difficulties in the stochastic analysis of groundwater flow, due to the need for large mesh sizes and the poorly conditioned matrices arising from numerical approximations. An alternative to the purely computational approach is to simplify the complex partial differential equations analytically. This can be achieved efficiently by means of a space transformation approach, which transforms the original multi-dimensional problem to a much simpler unidimensional space. The space transformation method is applied to stochastic partial differential equations whose coefficients are random functions of space and/or time. Such equations constitute an integral part of groundwater flow and solute transport. Ordinary perturbation methods for studying stochastic flow equations are in many cases physically inadequate and may lead to questionable approximations of the actual flow. To address these problems, a perturbation analysis based on Feynman-diagram expansions is proposed in this paper. This approach incorporates important information on spatial variability and fulfills essential physical requirements, both important advantages over ordinary hydrologic perturbation techniques. Moreover, the diagram-expansion approach reduces the original stochastic flow problem to a closed set of equations for the mean and the covariance function. 相似文献
5.
G. Christakos C. T. Miller D. Oliver 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1993,7(1):14-32
This paper develops concepts and methods to study stochastic hydrologic models. Problems regarding the application of the existing stochastic approaches in the study of groundwater flow are acknowledged, and an attempt is made to develop efficient means for their solution. These problems include: the spatial multi-dimensionality of the differential equation models governing transport-type phenomena; physically unrealistic assumptions and approximations and the inadequacy of the ordinary perturbation techniques. Multi-dimensionality creates serious mathematical and technical difficulties in the stochastic analysis of groundwater flow, due to the need for large mesh sizes and the poorly conditioned matrices arising from numerical approximations. An alternative to the purely computational approach is to simplify the complex partial differential equations analytically. This can be achieved efficiently by means of a space transformation approach, which transforms the original multi-dimensional problem to a much simpler unidimensional space. The space transformation method is applied to stochastic partial differential equations whose coefficients are random functions of space and/or time. Such equations constitute an integral part of groundwater flow and solute transport. Ordinary perturbation methods for studying stochastic flow equations are in many cases physically inadequate and may lead to questionable approximations of the actual flow. To address these problems, a perturbation analysis based on Feynman-diagram expansions is proposed in this paper. This approach incorporates important information on spatial variability and fulfills essential physical requirements, both important advantages over ordinary hydrologic perturbation techniques. Moreover, the diagram-expansion approach reduces the original stochastic flow problem to a closed set of equations for the mean and the covariance function. 相似文献
6.
Stochastic dynamic game models can be applied to derive optimal reservoir operation policies by considering interactions among water users and reservoir operator, their preferences, their levels of information availability and cooperative behaviors. The stochastic dynamic game model with perfect information (PSDNG) has been developed by [Ganji A, Khalili D, Karamouz M. Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation. I. The symmetric stochastic model with perfect information. Adv Water Resour, this issue]. This paper develops four additional versions of stochastic dynamic game model of water users interactions based on the cooperative behavior and hydrologic information availability of beneficiary sectors of reservoir systems. It is shown that the proposed models are quite capable of providing appropriate reservoir operating policies when compared with alternative operating models, as indicated by several reservoir performance characteristics. Among the proposed models, the selected model by considering cooperative behavior and additional hydrologic information (about the randomness nature of reservoir operation parameters), as exercised by reservoir operator, provides the highest attained level of performance and efficiency. Furthermore, the selected model is more realistic since it also considers actual behavior of water users and reservoir operator in the analysis. 相似文献
7.
A synthetic storm generator—Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS)—is developed in this study to represent spatio‐temporal variabilities of rainfall and storm movement in synthetic storms. Using an urban watershed as the testbed, the authors investigate the hydrologic responses to the DMS parameters and their interactions. In order to reveal the complex nature of rainfall–run‐off processes, previously simplified assumptions are relaxed in this study regarding (a) temporal variability of rainfall intensity and (b) time‐invariant flow velocity in channel routing. The results of this study demonstrate the significant contribution of storm moving velocity to the variation of peak discharge based on a global sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, a pairwise sensitivity analysis is conducted to elucidate not only the patterns in individual contributions from parameters to hydrologic responses but also their interactions with storm moving velocity. The intricacies of peak discharges resulting from sensitivity analyses are then dissected into independent hydrologic metrics, that is, run‐off volume and standard deviation of run‐off timings, for deeper insights. It is confirmed that peak discharge is increased when storms travel downstream along the main channel at the speed that corresponds to a temporal superposition of run‐off. Spatial concentration of catchment rainfall is found to be a critical linkage through which characteristics of moving storms affect peak discharges. In addition, altering peak timing of rainfall intensity in conjunction with storm movement results in varied storm core locations in the channel network, which further changes the flow attenuation effects from channel routing. For future directions, the DMS generator will be embedded in a stochastic modelling framework and applied in rainfall/flow frequency analysis. 相似文献
8.
Wetland restoration is often measured by how close the spatial and temporal water level (stage) patterns are to the pre-drainage conditions. Driven by rainfall, such multivariate conditions are governed by nonstationary, nonlinear, and nonGaussian processes and are often simulated by physically based distributed models which are difficult to run in real time due to extensive data requirements. The objective of this study is to provide the wetland restorationists with a real time rainfall–stage modeling tool of simpler input structure and capability to recognize the wetland system complexity. A dynamic multivariate Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous inputs (NARX) combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was developed. An implementation procedure was proposed and an application to Florida Everglade’s wetland systems was presented. Inputs to the model are time lagged rainfall, evapotranspiration and previously simulated stages. Data locations, preliminary time lag selection, spatial and temporal nonstationarity are identified through exploratory data analysis. PCA was used to eliminate input variable interdependence and to reduce the problem dimensions by more than 90% while retaining more than 80% of the process variance. A structured approach to select optimal time lags and network parameters was provided. NARX model results were compared to those of the linear Multivariate AutoRegressive model with eXogenous inputs. While one step ahead prediction shows comparable results, recursive prediction by NARX is far more superior to that of the linear model. Also, NARX testing under drastically different climatic conditions from those used in the development demonstrates a very good and robust performance. Driven by net rainfall, NARX exhibited robust stage prediction with an overall Efficiency Coefficient of 88%, Mean Square Error less than 0.004 m2, a standard error less than 0.06 m, a bias close to zero and normal probability plots show that the errors are close to normal distributions. 相似文献
9.
The regional study of hydrodynamic characteristics of karstic aquifers is challenging because of the great variety of lithology and the structural complexity found in carbonate formations. In order to improve this situation, a combined approach of time series and stochastic analyses was adopted to assess the hydrodynamic behaviour of the karstic aquifers. To achieve this, daily flow rates of 20 springs were taken from the 11 most significant aquifer units of the Basque Country. The results demonstrate the presence of memory effects, which modulated the input rainfall for short‐, medium‐ and long‐term storage capacity, resulting in hydrodynamic properties such as system memory, response time and mean delay between input and output. They reflect the storage and the manner in which these are filled and emptied, thus indicating the karstification of the aquifer. Likewise, the hydrodynamic and hydraulic classification obtained from the stochastic analysis provides a complementary approach to characterize the hydraulic behaviour of the studied karstic aquifers. The discussed examples indicate that this approach provides an excellent method to research hydrological karst systems. It is also shown that the use of hydrologic time series, alone, does not lead to a satisfactory classification of the hydrodynamic characteristics. Therefore, the general approach to hydrological regionalization in karst areas should take into account the structural complexity, heterogeneity of the lithology and the degree of karstification. Only in this case will the regionalization be physically founded, leading to a regional understanding of the hydrodynamic characteristics and flow conditions in a karst aquifer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Investigation of changes in characteristics of hydrological time series by Bayesian methods 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A. Ramachandra Rao Wahju Tirtotjondro 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1996,10(4):295-317
A review of literature reveals the inadequacy of Intervention analysis and spectrum based methods to adequately quantify changes in hydrologic times series. A Bayesian method is used to investigate the statistical significance of observed changes in hydrologic times series and the results are reported herein. The Bayesian method is superior to the previous methods. 相似文献