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随着众多大型水利枢纽的建设施工,在水利界逐步出现了“水库触发地震”之说。“水库诱发地震”和“水库触发地震”,虽只是一字之差,但涉及到水库地震的成因机制、水库地震预测等根本问题。统计了中外水库地震(Ms≥4．5)震例的3种地震响应时间△T1(水库蓄水至初震时间)、△T2(水库蓄水至主震时间)和△T3(初震至主震时间)的概率分布;并介绍了近几年现代大地测量学在监测水库蓄水环境变化和数字地震观测在揭示水库地震震源力学状态所取得的新进展。综合研究后认为水库蓄水局部改变了自然环境和地震孕育环境;在自然环境、地震孕育环境和地震之间可能存在着一种相互作用的动力学反馈机制,导致大约数年后具有更高震级的主震发生。因此,“水库诱发地震”是正确的,并非仅存在“触发地震”。 相似文献
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介绍了上存水库库区地质背景、构造应力场、地震活动背景等诱发地震条件。应用诱发地震条件类比与概率预测法,对上存水库进行诱发地震可能性分析。结果表明:①根据水库诱发条件类比分析认为上存水库发生诱发地震的可能性小。②从概率预测和最大诱发地震估算看,上存水库存在发生4级以下诱发地震的可能。极震区地震烈度可能会达到Ⅵ度,尚未达到当地地震基本烈度。水库建设可不用考虑水库诱发地震的影响。 相似文献
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本文阐明了模式识别方法的原理及其在水库诱发地震危险性预测研究中应用的可行性和实用性。以国内22个水库为样本(其中11个是有震样本),提取水库诱发地震有关的地质、地震、水文等方面的因素及特征,对拟建长江三峡三斗坪和清江隔河岩高坝水库进行预测。初步判定这两个水库区存在着水库诱发地震的危险性背景,并且清江隔河岩高坝水库区都镇湾以西地段,不存在诱发地震的背景,而其以东库,存在着水库诱发地震的背景。 相似文献
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阐述易发地震"多震层"中的地下流体有产生二级相变的地质条件,在地下流体二级相变过程中释放出来的能量所产生地质动力使快速地质过程(地震)成为可能。结合在水利建设过程中的实际情况,讨论了在深大断裂附近可能发生地下流体二级相变引发的水库诱发地震。重点关注特定水库蓄水使得其下方可能出现的地下流体变化情况,对于水库诱发地震的监测预测都是十分重要的。在新建水库特别是大型水库时,应当避免在深大断裂附近选择建设水库大坝,以减小诱发水库地震的可能。 相似文献
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最近报道的因3次独立的暴雨引发的雨水触发地震都发生在喀斯特地质区域。本人在该文中讨论了在强降雨直接侵入喀斯特地区以后喀斯特水文地质是怎样通过水流通道控制雨水触发地震的。这种通道导致水头大量增加,更重要的是,它极大地增加了作用于地下孔弹性介质的垂直应力。快速加载于孔弹性介质的载荷,通过以一种观测到的向水库注水类似的方式,增加深部孔隙压力,从而诱发地震。采用简单的一维孔弹性介质模型可以看到,深部流体压力的激增是边界处压力阶跃的实质性的一部分,接下来是与典型的线性扩散问题相关的随时间变化的孔隙压力的增加。这些结果含有对触发地震所必需的流体压力变化的暗示,并导致以下尚待检验的假设：明显的雨水触发地震将只发生在喀斯特地区。 相似文献
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按新的水库诱发地震分类探讨长江三峡水库诱发地震的可能性 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
提出了一种新的水库诱发地震分类方法，将水库地震分为断裂活动型、崩滑塌陷型、膨胀破裂型和岩溶气爆型四大类共十个亚类。指出评价水库诱发地震的危险性实际上主要是评估诱发断裂活动型水库强震的可能性。在分析了长江三峡水库区水库诱发强震的地质条件之后，按照上述观点着重分析了水库诱发断裂活动型强震的可能性。得出的基本结论是：对整个长江三峡水库区而言，水库诱发地震的最大震级不会超过５．５级；倘若仅就库首区而论，水 相似文献
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四川长宁地区注水诱发地震的孔隙压力扩散特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
正近些年,注水诱发地震一直是国内外学者的研究热点之一。研究表明,诸如大型水库蓄水、地热能开发、天然气和矿山开采、地下流体注入等工业活动均可能诱发地震。注水诱发地震与天然地震的最大区别在于其形成机理的差异,为此学者们一直致力于两者的流体触发机制研究。结合钻孔注水试验结果及理论推导,国外学者提出了评价流体触发地震 相似文献
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Machine learning-based automatic construction of earthquake catalog for reservoir areas in multiple river basins of Guizhou province,China 
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下载免费PDF全文 Large reservoirs have the risk of reservoir induced seismicity. Accurately detecting and locating microseismic events are crucial when studying reservoir earthquakes. Automatic earthquake monitoring in reservoir areas is one of the effective measures for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, we first applied the automatic location workflow (named LOC-FLOW) to process 14-day continuous waveform data from several reservoir areas in different river basins of Guizhou province. Compared with the manual seismic catalog, the recall rate of seismic event detection using the workflow was 83.9%. Of the detected earthquakes, 88.9% had an onset time difference below 1 s, 81.8% has a deviation in epicenter location within 5 km, and 77.8% had a focal depth difference of less than 5 km, indicating that the workflow has good generalization capacity in reservoir areas. We further applied the workflow to retrospectively process continuous waveform data recorded from 2020 to the first half of 2021 in reservoir areas in multiple river basins of western Guizhou province and identified five times the number of seismic events obtained through manual processing. Compared with manual processing of seismic catalog, the completeness magnitude had decreased from 1.3 to 0.8, and a b-value of 1.25 was calculated for seismicity in western Guizhou province, consistent with the b-values obtained for the reservoir area in previous studies. Our results show that seismicity levels were relatively low around large reservoirs that were impounded over 15 years ago, and there is no significant correlation between the seismicity in these areas and reservoir impoundment. Seismicity patterns were notably different around two large reservoirs that were only impounded about 12 years ago, which may be explained by differences in reservoir storage capacity, the geologic and tectonic settings, hydrogeological characteristics, and active fault the reservoir areas. Prominent seismicity persisted around two large reservoirs that have been impounded for less than 10 years. These events were clustered and had relatively shallow focal depths. The impoundment of the Jiayan Reservoir had not officially begun during this study period, but earthquake location results suggested a high seismicity level in this reservoir area. Therefore, any seismicity in this reservoir area after the official impoundment deserves special attention. 相似文献
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Yipeng Zhang Mark Person John Rupp Kevin Ellett Michael A. Celia Carl W. Gable Brenda Bowen James Evans Karl Bandilla Peter Mozley Thomas Dewers Thomas Elliot 《Ground water》2013,51(4):525-538
A series of Mb 3.8–5.5 induced seismic events in the midcontinent region, United States, resulted from injection of fluid either into a basal sedimentary reservoir with no underlying confining unit or directly into the underlying crystalline basement complex. The earthquakes probably occurred along faults that were likely critically stressed within the crystalline basement. These faults were located at a considerable distance (up to 10 km) from the injection wells and head increases at the hypocenters were likely relatively small (～70–150 m). We present a suite of simulations that use a simple hydrogeologic‐geomechanical model to assess what hydrogeologic conditions promote or deter induced seismic events within the crystalline basement across the midcontinent. The presence of a confining unit beneath the injection reservoir horizon had the single largest effect in preventing induced seismicity within the underlying crystalline basement. For a crystalline basement having a permeability of 2 × 10?17 m2 and specific storage coefficient of 10?7/m, injection at a rate of 5455 m3/d into the basal aquifer with no underlying basal seal over 10 years resulted in probable brittle failure to depths of about 0.6 km below the injection reservoir. Including a permeable (kz = 10?13 m2) Precambrian normal fault, located 20 m from the injection well, increased the depth of the failure region below the reservoir to 3 km. For a large permeability contrast between a Precambrian thrust fault (10?12 m2) and the surrounding crystalline basement (10?18 m2), the failure region can extend laterally 10 km away from the injection well. 相似文献
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J. -R. Grasso F. Guyoton J. Fréchet J. -F. Gamond 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1992,139(3-4):579-605
A sequence of moderate shallow earthquakes (3.5M
L5.3) was located within the Vercors massif (France) in the period 1961–1984. This subalpine massif has been a low seismic area for at least 5 centuries. During the period 1962–1963, 12 shallow earthquakes occurred in the neighborhood (10 km) of the Monteynard reservoir, 30 km south of the city of Grenoble. The latest fourM
L4.0 earthquakes occurred in 1979–1984 either at larger distance (35 km) or greater depth (10 km) from the reservoir. Two triggering mechanisms are suggested for this sequence: (i) the direct effect of elastic loading through either increased shear stress or strength reducing by increased pore pressure at depth; (ii) the pore pressure diffusion induced by poroelastic stress change due to the reservoir filling.The weekly water levels, local balanced geological cross sections, and focal mechanisms argue for two types of mechanical connection between the earthquake sequence and the filling cycles of the Monteynard reservoir. The seismic sequence started with the 1962–1963 shallow earthquakes that occurred during the first filling of the reservoir and are typical of the direct effect of elastic loading. The 1979 deeper earthquake is located at a 10 km depth below the reservoir. This event occurred 16 years after the initial reservoir impoundment, but one month after the previous 1963 maximum water level was exceeded. Moreover the yearly reservoir level increased gradually in the period 1962–1979 and has decreased since 1980. Accordingly we suggest that the gradual diffusion of water from reservoir to hypocentral depths decreases the strength of the rock matrices through increased pore pressure. The transition between the two types of seismic response is supported by the analysis ofM
L3.5 earthquakes which all occurred in the period 1964–1971, ranging between 10 and 30 km distance from the reservoir. The three other delayed earthquakes of the 1961–1984 seismic sequence (M
L4 during the 1979–1984 period) are all located 35 km away from the reservoir. Based on the seismic activity, the estimates for the hydraulic diffusivities range between 0.2–10 m2/s, except for the first event that occurred 30 km north of the reservoir, the filling just started. The lack ofin situ measurements of crustal hydrological properties in the area, shared by most of the Reservoir-Induced-Seismicity cases, prevents us from obtaining absolute evidence for the triggering processes. These observations and conceptual models attest that previous recurrence times for moderate natural shocks (4.5M
L5.5) estimated within this area using historical data, could be modified by 0.1–1 MPa stress changes. These small changes in deviatoric stress suggest that the upper crust is in this area nearly everywhere at a state of stress near failure. Although the paucity of both number and size of earthquakes in the French subalpine massif shows that aseismic displacements prevail, our study demonstrates that triggered earthquakes are important tools for assessing local seismic risk through mapping fault zones and identifying their possible seismic behavior. 相似文献
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The Central Apennines, Italy, are characterized by moderate seismic activity on normal faults, oriented in directions parallel
to the Apenninic chain. The subject of this study is the Umbria-Marche Apennines, a segment approximately 200-km long, where
three main seismic events occurred in the last three decades. The 1979 Norcia earthquake was a Mw = 5.8 event, taking place at the south end of the considered segment. The 1984 Gubbio earthquake was a Mw = 5.6 event which took place at the north end. The 1997-1998 Colfiorito sequence constituted 8 main shocks with magnitudes
Mw between 5 and 6 and epicenters located between the Gubbio and the Norcia earthquake areas. A model made of an elastic half-space
is considered, in which the seismic sources are represented by rectangular dislocations which have the appropriate values
of source parameters, and in which the static stress field produced by each event is calculated. The analysis of the Coulomb
stress change (ΔC) as a function of time shows that the coseismic stress transfer and fault interaction played an important role in the region
during the past three decades: 7 earthquakes of the 9 considered took place where ΔC>0. Such an interaction has been confirmed by the analysis of the aftershocks in the Colfiorito zone post September 26, 1997:
about the 61% of the aftershocks considered took place where ΔC>0. The comparison between the ΔCs due to the coseismic stress transfer and the rate ΔĊt due to the tectonic stress allows us to quantify the time advance of the earthquakes. The ΔCs pattern shows positive values in two areas that can be regarded as historical seismic gaps. 相似文献
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Eisuke Fujita Tomofumi Kozono Hideki Ueda Yuhki Kohno Shoichi Yoshioka Norio Toda Aiko Kikuchi Yoshiaki Ida 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2013,75(1):1-14
Crustal deformation by the M w 9.0 megathrust Tohoku earthquake causes the extension over a wide region of the Japanese mainland. In addition, a triggered M w 5.9 East Shizuoka earthquake on March 15 occurred beneath the south flank, just above the magma system of Mount Fuji. To access whether these earthquakes might trigger the eruption, we calculated the stress and pressure changes below Mount Fuji. Among the three plausible mechanisms of earthquake–volcano interactions, we calculate the static stress change around volcano using finite element method, based on the seismic fault models of Tohoku and East Shizuoka earthquakes. Both Japanese mainland and Mount Fuji region are modeled by seismic tomography result, and the topographic effect is also included. The differential stress given to Mount Fuji magma reservoir, which is assumed to be located to be in the hypocentral area of deep long period earthquakes at the depth of 15 km, is estimated to be the order of about 0.001–0.01 and 0.1–1 MPa at the boundary region between magma reservoir and surrounding medium. This pressure change is about 0.2 % of the lithostatic pressure (367.5 MPa at 15 km depth), but is enough to trigger an eruptions in case the magma is ready to erupt. For Mount Fuji, there is no evidence so far that these earthquakes and crustal deformations did reactivate the volcano, considering the seismicity of deep long period earthquakes. 相似文献
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A pronounced increase in seismicity started in and around Longtan reservoir, southwestern China after October 1, 2006 when it began the impoundment, and by the end of May 14, 2010, about 3,233 earthquakes with ?0.6?≤?M L?≤?4.2 had been located. This seismicity which occurred in five clusters mainly concentrated in the areas where few earthquakes had occurred before the first filling. There were four water filling periods in the Longtan reservoir, and the observed reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) shows a strong correlation with the filling cycles. After the first filling, there appears to be an instant undrained response due to an elastic response to the reservoir load in the third and fourth cluster. Then, this seismicity is followed by a delayed, drained response due to pore pressure diffusion, with the seismicity migrating outwards in one or more directions in the second and third filling period. The seismic diffusivity (α s) we estimated is about 4.54?×?105?cm2/s. The activity levels in the five clusters are different due to differences in the structures and permeabilities of the faults. The delayed seismic response to the filling in the third cluster was due to the combined effects of the lack of local fault intersecting the reservoir and lower permeability of the rock. The b value we obtained for reservoir-induced events was significantly different and higher than that of pre-impoundment natural tectonic earthquakes in the Longtan reservoir. The results of relocated earthquakes based on double difference earthquake location algorithm showed that their focal depths were mainly shallower than about 10 km and the distribution of relocated RIS in four clusters had no relation with these intersecting faults in the Longtan reservoir except the fifth cluster. All these characteristics of RIS in the Longtan reservoir indicate that they may relate to the coupled poroelastic response that includes both pore pressure diffusion and an undrained response, but the pore pressure diffusion and the water permeation appear to play a more important role on inducing the earthquakes in Longtan reservoir. 相似文献
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YANG Jianwen LI Lei ZHANG Pengying YE Beng HE Yingwen CHEN Ji CHA Wenjian 《中国地震研究》2019,33(2):320-335
On the basis of the airgun source signals recorded by the stations from January, 2016 to June, 2017, we use cross-correlation detection technology to obtain the characteristics of the stable phase travel time change of each station. We used the Yunlong MS5.0 and Yangbi MS5.1 earthquakes as samples. According to regional characteristics, 13 stations with high signal-to-noise ratios and complete data were selected (including 3 fixed stations and 10 active source stations). They are divided into four regions, and on the basis of the GNSS baseline data, the characteristics of regional wave velocity changes before and after the earthquake are analyzed. The results show that the station phase travel time change and the regional stress characteristics represented by the GNSS baseline data have good correlation in the short-term. Due to different degrees of regional stress, there are differences in the travel time changes of different stations in the four regions. Before the Yunlong MS5.0 and Yangbi MS5.1 earthquakes, with regional stress adjustment, there is an upward trend in the travel time changes of related stations in the adjacent areas of up to 0.02s. The difference is that there are differences in the time nodes and duration of the travel time anomalies, and there is a reverse descent process after the Yangbi MS5.1 earthquake. There are different degrees of travel time fluctuations in the relevant stations before and after the two earthquakes, but the fluctuation range before and after the earthquake was small. Compared with the water level change of the reservoir, the adjustment of the regional stress is more likely to have a substantial impact on the travel time changes of the relevant stations. 相似文献
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The volume of magma emitted by Volcan Arenal from July 1968 to March 1980 has been calculated to be 304 × 106 m3 (dense rock equivalent). Most of this magma has been emplaced as block lava flows on the western flanks of the volcano following the initial explosive eruptions in 1968. From 1968 to 1973 the volumetric discharge rate of magma decreased from about 3-2 m3 s−1 to about 1 m3 s−1. During a break in activity in late 1973 the site of effusion moved from Crater A to Crater C about 400 m higher. Subsequent effusion was at a lower rate (0.3 m3 s−1) which remained constant for the next six years. Comparison of dry-tilt measurements during this latter period of steady-state effusion with numerical finite-element models of Arenal's elastic response to the evacuation of magma from an underlying reservoir favor a very shallow reservoir (< 2 km depth) to explain the data. However, the constraints imposed by the measured volumes of magma are not compatible with such a reservoir. Instead, it is argued that the steady downward tilting of the volcano's summit was caused by the loading of the western side of the volcano by about 19 × 106 m3 of lava. Surface loading by lava flows may be an important deformational effect at other volcanoes. A system of magma supply involving open conduits (pipes) for the uppermost one kilometer and transitory conduits (cracks) to a crustal reservoir is proposed. This crustal reservoir initially contained a compositionally graded magma which was evacuated from 1968 to 1973. The subsequent abrupt decrease in effusion rate is compatible with the increased magmatic head required to reach Crater C. The constancy of magma composition and effusion rate from 1974 to 1980 implies a homogeneous magma reservoir. 相似文献
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S. S. Kevorkyants 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2006,42(8):702-711
Forward seismic problems are solved for elastic media by rigorous methods (i.e., methods with controllable accuracy). Analysis of the current state of research on this subject suggests that the most promising methods are based on integral and integro-differential equations, notwithstanding the rather modest results of their application to solving forward problems in the theory of elastic vibrations. The second Green integral theorem for seismic waves, formulated and proven in the paper, yields a system of two boundary (surface) integral equations for the displacement vector u(M 0) and the normal (to the boundary surface) vector component of the stress tensor tn(M 0). The integrands of the surface integrals in terms of which the function tn(M 0) is expressed on both sides of the interface between the medium and the heterogeneity contain the second derivatives of the Green’s tensor functions ? e (M 0, M) and ? i (M 0, M), respectively, which are responsible for a cubic singularity (third-order singularity) if the integration point M coincides with the observation point M 0. An original method of eliminating the cubic singularity proposed in the paper involves special tensor normalization of the integrals on the outer and inner sides of the interface and subsequent subtraction of one integral from another in order to construct the second integral equation. 相似文献