共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
AbstractThe generation of reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPEs) through use of raingauge and radar data is an important issue. This study investigates the impacts of radar QPEs with different densities of raingauge networks on rainfall–runoff processes through a semi-distributed parallel-type linear reservoir rainfall–runoff model. The spatial variation structures of the radar QPE, raingauge QPE and radar-gauge residuals are examined to review the current raingauge network, and a compact raingauge network is identified via the kriging method. An analysis of the large-scale spatial characteristics for use with a hydrological model is applied to investigate the impacts of a raingauge network coupled with radar QPEs on the modelled rainfall–runoff processes. Since the precision in locating the storm centre generally represents how well the large-scale variability is reproduced; the results show not only the contribution of kriging to identify a compact network coupled with radar QPE, but also that spatial characteristics of rainfalls do affect the hydrographs.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Pan, T.-Y., Li, M.-Y., Lin, Y.-J., Chang, T.-J., Lai, J.-S., and Tan, Y.-C., 2014. Sensitivity analysis of the hydrological response of the Gaping River basin to radar-raingauge quantitative precipitation estimates. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1335–1352. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923969 相似文献
2.
Guy Delrieu Laurent Bonnifait Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter Brice Boudevillain 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1308-1319
AbstractRadar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were assessed using reference values established by means of a geostatistical approach. The reference values were estimated from raingauge data using the block kriging technique, and the reference meshes were selected on the basis of the kriging estimation variance. Agreement between radar QPEs and reference rain amounts was shown to increase slightly with the space–time scales. The statistical distributions of the errors were modelled conditionally with respect to several factors using the GAMLSS approach. The conditional bias of the errors presents a complex structure that depends on the space–time scales and the considered geographical sub-domains, while the standard deviation of the errors has a more homogeneous behaviour. The estimation standard deviation of the reference rainfall and the standard deviation of the errors between radar and reference rainfall were found to have the same magnitude, indicating the limitations of the available network in terms of providing accurate reference values for the spatial scales considered (5–100 km2).
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Delrieu, G., Bonnifait, L., Kirstetter, P.-E., and Boudevillain, B., 2013. Dependence of radar quantitative precipitation estimation error on the rain intensity in the Cévennes region, France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1300–1311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.827337 相似文献
3.
AbstractThe societal impacts of flash floods are more significant than any other weather-related hazard. They are often manifested in the form of damage to infrastructure, flooding of roadways and bridges, creating deadly hazards to motorists and inundation of crops and pasture. Some of these hazards can be anticipated and thus mitigated given effective warning systems. This study describes the tools proposed over recent decades in the USA to predict flash flooding and evaluates them using a common observational data set. Design recommendations for flash-flood forecasting systems are provided, taking into account today's availability of high-resolution rainfall data at scales commensurate with flash flooding, their archives, spatial data sets to describe physiographic properties, and ever-increasing computational resources.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Gourley, J.J., Flamig, Z.L., Hong, Y., and Howard, K.W., 2014. Evaluation of past, present and future tools for radar-based flash-flood prediction in the USA. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1377–1389. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.919391 相似文献
4.
AbstractA semi-distributed model with a parallel connection was applied to examine the effects of urbanization variables. Data were obtained from watershed divisions that were characterized by various degrees of urbanization. The mean rainfall was calculated using the kriging method. The model inputs were obtained by subtracting mean rainfall from Ф-index values, based on the spatially uniform loss assumption. Regression analysis was applied to determine the relationship between the parameters of 64 calibrations and urbanization variables among the divisions. The results showed that overland parameters produced more consistent change in response to imperviousness than to population. Conversely, the channel parameter was unaffected by changes in urbanization. The verification results of 46 cases showed that power linkage was a potential option for linking division parameters with the corresponding imperviousness based on four evaluation criteria. The changes in imperviousness on overland parameters show the hydrological effects of division urbanizations.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor T. WagenerCitation Chen, R., Chuang, W.-N., and Cheng, S., 2014. Effects of urbanization variables on model parameters for watershed divisions. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1167–1183. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.910305 相似文献
5.
AbstractA methodology is proposed to compare radar reflectivity data obtained from two partially overlapping ground-based radars in order to explain relative differences in radar-rainfall products and establish sound merging procedures for multi-radar observing networks. To identify radar calibration differences, radar reflectivity is compared for well-matched radar sampling volumes viewing common meteorological targets. Temporal separation and three-dimensional matching of two different sampling volumes were considered based on the original polar coordinates of radar observation. Since the proposed method assumes radar beam propagation under standard atmospheric conditions, anomalous propagation cases were eliminated from the analysis. The reflectivity comparison results show systematic differences over time, but the variability of these differences is surprisingly large due to the sensitive nature of the radar reflectivity measurement.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis/Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Seo, B.-C., Krajewski, W.F., and Smith, J.A., 2013. Four-dimensional reflectivity data comparison between two ground-based radars: methodology and statistical analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1312–1326. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.839872 相似文献
6.
Abstractt Spatio-temporal storm properties have a large impact on catchment hydrological response. The sensitivity of simulated flash floods to convective rain-cell characteristics is examined for an extreme storm event over a 94 km2 semi-arid catchment in southern Israel. High space–time resolution weather radar data were used to derive and model convective rain cells that then served as input into a hydrological model. Based on alterations of location, direction and speed of a major rain cell, identified as the flooding cell for this case, the impacts on catchment rainfall and generated flood were examined. Global sensitivity analysis was applied to identify the most important factors affecting the flash flood peak discharge at the catchment outlet. We found that the flood peak discharge could be increased three-fold by relatively small changes in rain-cell characteristics. We assessed that the maximum flash flood magnitude that this single rain cell can produce is 175 m3/s, and, taking into account the rest of the rain cells, the flash flood peak discharge can reach 260 m3/s.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Morin, E. and Yakir, H., 2013. Hydrological impact and potential flooding of convective rain cells in a semi-arid environment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1275–1284. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841315 相似文献
7.
8.
Pierre Javelle Julie Demargne Dimitri Defrance Jean Pansu Patrick Arnaud 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1390-1402
AbstractThis article presents a comparison between real-time discharges calculated by a flash-flood warning system and post-event flood peak estimates. The studied event occurred on 15 and 16 June 2010 at the Argens catchment located in the south of France. Real-time flood warnings were provided by the AIGA (Adaptation d’Information Géographique pour l’Alerte en Crue) warning system, which is based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1-km2 resolution using radar rainfall information. The timing of the warnings (updated every 15 min) was compared to the observed flood impacts. Furthermore, “consolidated” flood peaks estimated by an intensive post-event survey were used to evaluate the AIGA-estimated peak discharges. The results indicated that the AIGA warnings clearly identified the most affected areas. However, the effective lead-time of the event detection was short, especially for fast-response catchments, because the current method does not take into account any rainfall forecast. The flood peak analysis showed a relatively good correspondence between AIGA- and field-estimated peak values, although some differences were due to the rainfall underestimation by the radar and rainfall–runoff model limitations.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J. and Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1390–1402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 相似文献
9.
AbstractArtificial neural networks (ANNs) have recently been used to predict the hydraulic head in well locations. In the present work, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was used to train a feed-forward multi-layer ANN for the simulation of hydraulic head change at an observation well in the region of Agia, Chania, Greece. Three variants of the PSO algorithm were considered, the classic one with inertia weight improvement, PSO with time varying acceleration coefficients (PSO-TVAC) and global best PSO (GLBest-PSO). The best performance was achieved by GLBest-PSO when implemented using field data from the region of interest, providing improved training results compared to the back-propagation training algorithm. The trained ANN was subsequently used for mid-term prediction of the hydraulic head, as well as for the study of three climate change scenarios. Data time series were created using a stochastic weather generator, and the scenarios were examined for the period 2010–2020.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor L. SeeCitation Tapoglou, E., Trichakis, I.C., Dokou, Z., Nikolos, I.K., and Karatzas, G.P., 2014. Groundwater-level forecasting under climate change scenarios using an artificial neural network trained with particle swarm optimization. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(6), 1225–1239. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.838005 相似文献
10.
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos Marco Borga Davide Zoccatelli Emmanouil N. Anagnostou 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1363-1376
AbstractThe concept of “catchment-scale storm velocity” quantifies the rate of storm motion up and down the basin accounting for the interaction between the rainfall space–time variability and the structure of the drainage network. It provides an assessment of the impact of storm motion on flood shape. We evaluate the catchment-scale storm velocity for the 29 August 2003 extreme storm that occurred on the 700 km2-wide Fella River basin in the eastern Italian Alps. The storm was characterized by the high rate of motion of convective cells across the basin. Analysis is carried out for a set of basins that range in area from 8 to 623 km2 to: (a) determine velocity magnitudes for different sub-basins; (b) examine the relationship of velocity with basin scale and (c) assess the impact of storm motion on simulated flood response. Two spatially distributed hydrological models of varying degree of complexity in the representation of the runoff generation processes are used to evaluate the effects of the storm velocity on flood modelling and investigate model dependencies of the results. It is shown that catchment-scale storm velocity has a non-linear dependence on basin scale and generally exhibits rather moderate values, in spite of the strong kinematic characteristics of individual storm elements. Consistently with these observations and for both models, hydrological simulations show that storm motion has an almost negligible effect on the flood response modelling.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Nikolopoulos, E.I., Borga, M., Zoccatelli, D., and Anagnostou, E.N., 2014. Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification, scale dependence and effect on flood response. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1363–1376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923889 相似文献
11.
AbstractNew and previously published data sets including stable and radiogenic isotope measurements (18O, 2H, 3H, 13C and 14C) were used to investigate, conceptualize and compare groundwater hydrodynamics within three major multilayer aquifer systems located in central and southern Tunisia. It has been demonstrated that the investigated aquifer systems contain modern and palaeoclimatic waters. Modern groundwaters, which refer to contemporaneous and post-nuclear recharge waters, are characterized by enriched stable isotope contents, high carbon-14 activities and high to moderate tritium concentration. While palaeoclimatic groundwaters, which refer to Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene recharge waters, are distinguished by their depleted stable isotope contents, low carbon-14 activities and insignificant tritium concentrations. Established conceptual models have elucidated the groundwater hydrodynamics within the studied aquifer systems. They show that groundwater mixing occurs between end-members from the shallow and deep aquifers that migrate by downward and upward leakage towards the intermediate aquifer.Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. FayeCitation Dassi, L. and Tarki, M., 2014. Isotopic tracing for conceptual models of groundwater hydrodynamics in multilayer aquifer systems of central and southern Tunisia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1240–1258. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.892206 相似文献
12.
AbstractQuality is key to ensuring that the potential offered by weather radar networks is realized. To achieve optimum quality, a comprehensive radar data quality management system, designed to monitor the end-to-end radar data processing chain and evaluate product quality, is being developed at the UK Met Office. Three contrasting elements of this system are described: monitoring of key radar hardware performance indicators; generation of long-term integrations of radar products; and monitoring of radar reflectivity factor using synthesized observations from numerical weather prediction model fields. Examples of each component are presented and ways in which the different types of monitoring information have been used to both identify issues with the radar product data quality and help formulate solutions are given.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Harrison, D., Georgiou, S., Gaussiat, N., and Curtis, A., 2013. Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1327–1342. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841316 相似文献
13.
Abstract The South African Weather Service (SAWS) issues routine experimental, near real-time rainfall maps from daily raingauge networks, radar networks and satellite images, as well as merged rainfall fields. These products are potentially useful for near real-time forecasting, especially in areas of fast hydrological response, and also to simulate the “now state” of various hydrological state variables such as soil moisture content, streamflow, and reservoir inflows. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate their skill as inputs to hydrological simulations and, in particular, the skill of the merged field in terms of better hydrological results relative to the individual products. Rainfall fields derived from raingauge, radar, satellite, conditioned satellite and the merged (gauge/radar/satellite) were evaluated for two selected days with relatively high amounts of rainfall, as well as for a continuous period of 90 days in the Mgeni catchment, South Africa. Streamflows simulated with the ACRU model indicate that the use of raingauge as well as merged fields of satellite/raingauge and satellite/radars/raingauge provides relatively realistic rainfall results, without much difference in their hydrological outputs, whereas the radar and raw satellite information by themselves cannot be used in operational hydrological application in their current status. Citation Ghile, Y., Schulze, R. & Brown, C. (2010) Evaluating the performance of ground-based and remotely sensed near real-time rainfall fields from a hydrological perspective. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 497–511. 相似文献
14.
Abstract A cluster point process model is considered for the analysis of fine-scale rainfall time series. The model is based on three Poisson processes. The first is a Poisson process of storm origins, where each storm has a random (exponential) lifetime. The second is a Poisson process of cell origins that occur during the storm lifetime, terminating when the storm finishes. Each cell has a random lifetime that follows an exponential distribution (or terminates when the storm terminates, whichever occurs first). During cell lifetimes, a third Poisson process of instantaneous pulses occurs. The model is essentially an extension of the well-known Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses model, with the rectangular profiles replaced with a Poisson process of instantaneous pulse depths to ensure more realistic rainfall profiles for fine-scale series. Model equations, derived in Cowpertwait et al. (2007), are used to fit different sets of properties to a 60 year record of 5-min data taken from Kelburn, New Zealand. As in the previous work, two superposed processes are used to account for two main and distinct precipitation types (convective and stratiform). By treating the within-cell pulses as dependent random variables, it is found, by simulation, that improved fits to extreme values and the proportion of dry intervals are obtained. Citation Cowpertwait, P. S. P., Xie, G., Isham, V., Onof, C. & Walsh, D. C. I. (2011) A fine-scale point process model of rainfall with dependent pulse depths within cells. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1110–1117. 相似文献
15.
This study developed a correction approach to improve the rainfall field estimation using the TRMM rainfall product in a sparsely-gauged mountainous basin. First, Thiessen polygons were generated to define the measurement domain of each raingauge. Second, the rainfall of TRMM pixels in each Thiessen polygon was corrected using a benchmark method based on the difference between the monthly rainfall estimated by a raingauge and the TRMM pixel that possessed a gauge station (referred to as a gauged pixel). Third, the rainfall values in the gauged pixels were adjusted to the weighted average value of the gauge rainfall and corrected pixel rainfall. Finally, the rainfall in the non-gauged TRMM pixels was corrected as the sum of two terms. The first term is the adjusted rainfall in the corresponding gauged pixel in the same Thiessen polygon, and the second term is the rainfall (after benchmark correction) difference between the current pixel and the gauged pixel. Our results indicate that the corrected rainfall data outperforms the original TRMM product in the simulations of moderate and low flows and outperforms the sparse raingauges in the simulations of both peak and low flows.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang 相似文献
16.
AbstractDischarge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m3 s-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.
Editor D. KoutsoyiannisCitation Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P., 2014. Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1117–1134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979 相似文献
17.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6)
Abstract Abstract After the destructive flood in 1998, the Chinese government planned to build national weather radar networks and to use radar data for real-time flood forecasting. Hence, coupling of weather radar rainfall data and a hydrological (Xinanjiang) model became an important issue. The present study reports on experience in such coupling at the Shiguanhe watershed. After having corrected the radar reflectivity and the attenuation data, the weather radar rainfall was estimated and then corrected in real time using a Kalman filter. In general, the precipitation estimated from weather radar is reasonably accurate in most of the catchment investigated, after corrections as above. Compared to the results simulated by raingauge data, the simulations based on the weather radar data are of similar accuracy. Present research results show that rainfall estimated from the weather radar, the radar data correction method, the method of coupling, and the Xinanjiang model lend themselves well to application in operational real-time flood forecasting. 相似文献
18.
AbstractThe applicability of two versions of the Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse model, the original and the modified model, is discussed for describing the temporal and spatial variation of rainfall patterns observed at 15 raingauge stations in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1971–2008; 17 different sets of moment combinations are fitted to these models based on the generalized method of moments approach. The common statistics included in all sets are the mean, variance, lag-1 autocorrelation and the probability of dry based on the hourly rainfall data. The analysis was carried out on hourly rainfall data from all 15 stations for all months of the year. Two stations, Petaling Jaya and Kemaman, located on the west and east coasts of the Peninsula, respectively, are considered for illustration of the results, taking the months of July and November, which correspond to the driest and wettest months, corresponding to the southwest monsoon (May–August) and northeast monsoon (November–February), respectively. The best moment combination found for the illustrative results is based on the common statistics, as well as the mean and variance based on 24-h aggregated rainfall data, the inclusion of which successfully improved the model performance; the errors were significantly reduced. It was also found that the performance of the fitted models based on the mean absolute deviate error varies according to the type of Bartlett Lewis model applied: errors are much smaller for the fitted model based on the modified model as compared to the original model. In addition, the fitted statistics: mean, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of dry are quite well fitted for several aggregated time scales; however, the variances are underestimated in both models for all aggregated time scales, particularly in the case of the original model. The results of extreme value analysis indicate that the modified model failed to reproduce the annual hourly and daily rainfall extremes satisfactorily.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. OnofCitation Hanaish, I.S., Ibrahim, K., and Jemain, A.A., 2013. On the potential of Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse models for simulating rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1690–1703. 相似文献
19.
Edson Paixao Heather Auld M. Monirul Qader Mirza Joan Klaassen Mark W. Shephard 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1067-1089
Abstract Southern Ontario, Canada, has been impacted in recent years by many heavy rainfall and flooding events that have exceeded existing historical estimates of infrastructure design rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) values. These recent events and the limited number of short-duration recording raingauges have prompted the need to research the climatology of heavy rainfall events within the study area, review the existing design IDF methodologies, and evaluate alternative approaches to traditional point-based heavy rainfall IDF curves, such as regional IDF design values. The use of additional data and the regional frequency analysis methodology were explored for the study area, with the objective of validating identified clusters or homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall amounts through Ward's method. As the results illustrate, nine homogeneous regions were identified in Southern Ontario using the annual maximum series (AMS) for daily and 24-h rainfall data from climate and rate-of-rainfall or tipping bucket raingauge (TBRG) stations, respectively. In most cases, the generalized extreme value and logistic distributions were identified as the statistical distributions that provide the best fit for the 24-h and sub-daily rainfall data in the study area. A connection was observed between extreme rainfall variability, temporal scale of heavy rainfall events and location of each homogeneous region. Moreover, the analysis indicated that scaling factors cannot be used reliably to estimate sub-daily and sub-hourly values from 24- and 1-h data in Southern Ontario. Citation Paixao, E., Auld, H., Mirza, M.M.Q., Klaassen, J. & Shephard, M.W. (2011) Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario, Canada. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1067–1089. 相似文献
20.
Cesar Aybar Carlos Fernández Adrian Huerta Waldo Lavado Fiorella Vega Oscar Felipe-Obando 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(5):770-785
ABSTRACTA new gridded rainfall dataset available for Peru is introduced, called PISCOp V2.1 (Peruvian Interpolated data of SENAMHI’s Climatological and Hydrological Observations). PISCOp has been developed for the period 1981 to the present, with an average latency of eight weeks at 0.1° spatial resolution. The merging algorithm is based on geostatistical and deterministic interpolation methods including three different rainfall sources: (i) the national quality-controlled and infilled raingauge dataset, (ii) radar-gauge merged precipitation climatologies and (iii) the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation (CHIRP) estimates. The validation results suggest that precipitation estimates are acceptable showing the highest performance for the Pacific coast and the western flank of the Andes. Furthermore, a meticulous quality-control and gap-infilling procedure allowed us to reduce the formation of inhomogeneities (non-climatic breaks). The dataset is publicly available at https://piscoprec.github.io/ and is intended to support hydrological studies and water management practices. 相似文献