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Lance A. Waller Li Zhu Carol A. Gotway Dennis M. Gorman Paul J. Gruenewald 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):573-588
Past studies consistently indicate measurable local associations between alcohol distribution and the incidence of violence.
These results, coupled with measurements of spatial correlation, reveal the importance of spatial analysis in the study of
the interaction of alcohol and violence. While studies increasingly incorporate spatial correlation among model residuals
to improve precision and reduce bias, to date, most analyses assume associations that are constant and independent of location,
an assumption coming under increasing scrutiny in the quantitative geography literature. In this paper, we review and contrast
two approaches for the estimation of and inference for spatially heterogeneous effects (i.e., associative factors whose impacts on the outcome of interest vary throughout geographic space). Specifically,
we provide an in-depth comparison of “geographically weighted regression” models (allowing covariate effects to vary in space
but only allowing relatively ad hoc inference) with “variable coefficient” models (allowing varying effects via spatial random
fields and providing model-based estimation and inference, but requiring more advanced computational techniques). We compare
the approaches with respect to underlying conceptual structures, computational implementation, and inferential output. We
apply both approaches to violent crime, illegal drug arrest, and alcohol distribution data from Houston, Texas and compare
results in light of the differing methodological structures of the two approaches. 相似文献
3.
Jürgen Pilz Gunter Spöck 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(5):621-632
The spatial prediction methodology that has become known under the heading of kriging is largely based on the assumptions
that the underlying random field is Gaussian and the covariance function is exactly known. In practical applications, however,
these assumptions will not hold. Beyond Gaussianity of the random field, lognormal kriging, disjunctive kriging, (generalized
linear) model-based kriging and trans-Gaussian kriging have been proposed in the literature. The latter approach makes use
of the Box–Cox-transform of the data. Still, all the alternatives mentioned do not take into account the uncertainty with
respect to the distribution (or transformation) and the estimated covariance function of the data. The Bayesian trans-Gaussian
kriging methodology proposed in the present paper is in the spirit of the “Bayesian bootstrap” idea advocated by Rubin (Ann
Stat 9:130–134, 1981) and avoids the unusual specification of noninformative priors often made in the literature and is entirely based on the
sample distribution of the estimators of the covariance function and of the Box–Cox parameter. After some notes on Bayesian
spatial prediction, noninformative priors and developing our new methodology finally we will present an example illustrating
our pragmatic approach to Bayesian prediction by means of a simulated data set. 相似文献
4.
Ulf Gräwe Eric Deleersnijder Syed Hyder Ali Muttaqi Shah Arnold Willem Heemink 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(4):501-514
During the last decades, the Euler scheme was the common “workhorse” in particle tracking, although it is the lowest-order approximation of the underlying stochastic
differential equation. To convince the modelling community of the need for better methods, we have constructed a new test
case that will show the shortcomings of the Euler scheme. We use an idealised shallow-water diffusivity profile that mimics the presence of a sharp pycnocline and thus a quasi-impermeable
barrier to vertical diffusion. In this context, we study the transport of passive particles with or without negative buoyancy.
A semi-analytic solutions is used to assess the performance of various numerical particle-tracking schemes (first- and second-order
accuracy), to treat the variations in the diffusivity profile properly. We show that the commonly used Euler scheme exhibits a poor performance and that widely used particle-tracking codes shall be updated to either the Milstein scheme or second-order schemes. It is further seen that the order of convergence is not the only relevant factor, the absolute
value of the error also is. 相似文献
5.
In this paper, based on the previous study of practical use of seismic regime windows and seismic regime belts, the problem
of establishing a “seismic regime network” consisting of “windows” and “belts” is further posed and discussed according to
the observed fact that many “windows” and “belts” make responses to one earthquake. For the convenience of usage, the “seismic
regime network” is divided into two classes, the first class and the second one. The former can be used in tendency prediction
for long-term seismic activity in a large area, the latter used in short-term prediction in a small area. In this paper, after
briefly discussing the physical significance of “seismic regime network”, it is pointed out that this simple and easily used
method can be used to observe and extract seismic precursory information from a large area before a great earthquake, thus
it can provide a reliable basis for the analysis and judgement of seismic regime tendency in time and space. No doult, this
method is of certain practical significance.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 161–169, 1991.
The English version of this paper is improved by Prof. Shaoxie Xu. 相似文献
6.
Abstract The present research study investigates the application of nonlinear normalizing data transformations in conjunction with ordinary kriging (OK) for the accurate prediction of groundwater level spatial variability in a sparsely-gauged basin. We investigate three established normalizing methods, Gaussian anamorphosis, trans-Gaussian kriging and the Box-Cox method to improve the estimation accuracy. The first two are applied for the first time to groundwater level data. All three methods improve the mean absolute prediction error compared to the application of OK to the non-transformed data. In addition, a modified Box-Cox transformation is proposed and applied to normalize the hydraulic heads. The modified Box-Cox transformation in conjunction with OK is found to be the optimal spatial model based on leave-one-out cross-validation. The recently established Spartan semivariogram family provides the optimal model fit to the transformed data. Finally, we present maps of the groundwater level and the kriging variance based on the optimal spatial model. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari Citation Varouchakis, E.A., Hristopoulos, D.T., and Karatzas, G.P., 2012. Improving kriging of groundwater level data using nonlinear normalizing transformations—a field application. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1404–1419. 相似文献
7.
Conclusion Based on the analysis about the law of deformation rate, the concepts of the deformation rate of precursor, and its stress
drop, and the stress drop of instability are discussed. According to the obtained deformationu
0 corresponding to the maximum stress, the unstable pointu
1 and the stable pointu
2 of equilibrium, the complete process of rock failure can be divided into four stages quantitatively, corresponding to “the
steady stage I”, “the precursor stage II”, “the unstable stage III” and “the later stage IV” of rock failure respectively,
which can be used to simulate the complete course of earthquake. This kind of similarity between the complete process of rock
failure and the complete course of earthquake suggests clearly the direction to reveal the law being of universal significance
for the simulation of the earthquake in the laboratory experiments.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 517–521, 1991. 相似文献
8.
In this paper, by means of the statistical analysis method of stochastic spatial point process, statistical analysis of spatial
distribution of earthquakes in the large northern region of China is made. Emphasis is on the test and analysis of the complete
spatial randomness, correlation of earthquake distribution in the different magnitude interval and random labeling. It is
shown by the analysis that the spatial distribution of earthquakes in the large northern region is “clustered”, the distributions
of earthquakes in different magnitude interval are positively correlated and can be modeled by a two-dimensional process.
The results obtained in the paper can be used for the establishment of a reasonable spatial distribution model and have some
application in the reasonable estimation of seismic hazard.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 129–135, 1993. 相似文献
9.
GUO Zeng-Jian 《地震学报(英文版)》2000,13(4):477-480
IntroductionIn the book Future CataS~ologr published in 1992, we proposed a viewpoiflt on using the"criterion of activity in quiescence" to predict big eathquake (MsZ7) (GUO, et al, 1992), and predicted in the book that in futore several years or in ten years a big earthquake (Ms27) will be possible to occur in the Zhongdian and nearby in Yunnan Province. In the 1994 nation-wide earthquake tendency consultation meeting we pointed out, once more, in the Zhongdian region of Yunnan Province… 相似文献
10.
Wail A. Mousa 《Geophysical Prospecting》2013,61(3):504-515
The purpose of this paper is to study the possibility of performing practically stable and efficient frequency‐space (f?x) wavefield extrapolation for the application of seismic imaging and datuming via infinite impulse response (IIR) filters. The model reduction control theory was adopted to design such IIR f?x extrapolation filters. The model reduction theory reduces the order of a given order system which, in this case, involves reducing a finite impulse response (FIR) f?x extrapolation filter system into an IIR f?x extrapolation filter system. This theory relies on decomposing the states of the given filter system into strong and weakly coupled sub‐systems, and then eliminating the weakly coupled states via singular value decomposition of the Hankel and the impulse response Gramian matrices. Simulation results indicate that IIR f?x filters can be obtained, which are stable from an IIR filter design point of view. Simulations also indicate that stable seismic impulse responses and synthetics can be obtained with a reduced system model order and, hence, less computational efforts with respect to the number of complex multiplications and additions per output sample. It is hoped that this study will open new possibilities for researchers to reconsider designing IIR f?x explicit depth extrapolation filters due to their expected computational savings and wavenumber response accuracy, when compared to the FIR f?x explicit depth extrapolation filters. 相似文献
11.
In this paper, one of the distribution-free tests — randomization test, is briefly described. It doesn’t need any distribution
assumption and its related parameter estimation and is applicable to random and nonrandom sample. Then it is used to the test
of migration of strong earthquakes on the Xianshuihe Fault Belt and “immunity” of large earthquakes in the large northern
reigon of China. The test results show that there is 98.7% confidence degree for the migration of strong earthqueks on the
Xianshuihe Fault Belt and “immunity” of earthqueks withM
S⩾8 toM
S⩾7 is significant in the large northern region of China. The obtained test results and the test method itself have certain
application in the practice.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 484–489, 1993. 相似文献
12.
Rengin Gök Lawrence Hutchings Kevin Mayeda Doğan Kalafat 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2009,166(4):547-566
We develop a data set of aftershock recordings of the 1999, M = 7.4 Izmit and M = 7.2 Duzce (Turkey) earthquakes to study
their source parameters. We combined seismograms from 44 stations maintained by several sources (organizations) to obtain
a unified data set of events (2.1 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.5). We calculate source parameters of these small earthquakes by two methods that use different techniques to address
the difficulty in obtaining source spectra for small earthquakes subject to interference from site response. One method (program
NetMoment (NM), Hutchings, 2004) uses spectra of direct S waves in a simultaneous inversion of local high-frequency network data to estimate seismic
moment, source corner frequency (fc), site attenuation (k) and whole-path Q. This approach takes advantage of the source commonality in all recordings for a particular earthquake
by fitting a common Brune source spectrum to the data with a and individual k. The second approach (Mayeda et al., 2003) uses the coda method (CM) to obtain “nonmodel-based” source spectra and moment estimates from selected broadband
recording sites. We found that both methods do well for events that allow the comparison with seismic moment estimates derived
from waveform modeling. Also, source spectra obtained from the two methods are very closely matched for most of the events
they have in common. We use an F test to examine the trade-off between k and fc picks identified by the direct S-wave method. About half of the events could be constrained to have less than a 50% average
uncertainty in fc and k. We used these source spectra solutions to calculate energy and apparent stress and compare these to estimates from the selected
“good quality” source spectra from CM. Both studies have values mutually consistent and show a similar increase in apparent
stress with increasing moment. This result has added merit due to the independent approaches to calculate apparent stress.
We conclude that both methods are at least partially validated by our study, and they both have usefulness for different circumstances
of recording local small earthquakes. CM would work well in studies for which there is a broad magnitude range of events and
NM works well for local events recorded by band-limited recorders. 相似文献
13.
Case histories of water level subsidence in bore-holes as a precursor of earthquakes are given here. Based on the examples,
a testable quantitative theory for causative mechanism of the precursor—“draining-injecting water model with variable discharge”
is proposed (abbreviated to DIW model). Through analysing the constitution law of which the deformation changes in the porous,
water-saturated media under the effect of exterior stress, as first step of all, the authors suggested first a simple “drainage-natural
restoration model” (abbreviated to DNR model), calculated and gave a group of theoretical precursor curve by using DNR model,
compared the theoretical precursor curves of DNR model with the observational curves, found out the differences of the two
curves, studied the causative physical factors that caused the differences then, revised the DNR model, and finally, the theory
on “draining-injecting water model with variable discharge” in the paper was obtained. The authors deduced general equation
of the two dimensions “draining-injecting water linear source drawdown field” in the paper, suggested and developed the concept
on “domain”. DIW model can also give a possible explanation for both regularity and complexity of this precursor. DIW theory
can quantitatively divide the seismogenic process of the foci on the short-term and impending process into several phases,
and by inversing the discharge functionq(τ) curve, the time values by which the phases are divided were obtained. They will be helpful to predicting the occurrence
time of earthquake and judging the DD and IPE model of the seismogenesis.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 194–201, 1993. 相似文献
14.
A three-component geomagnetic survey was carried out during the period from 2002 to 2004 in China including Jiujiang-Ruichang region. Comparing the ＂2005.0 surface spline model of China geomagnetic field＂ created on the basis of the survey data with the ＂1970.0 surface spline model of China geomagnetic field＂, we can see an obvious abnormity in the geomagnetic horizontal component within a range of about 100 km around the epicenter of the Ms=5.7 Jiujiang-Ruichang earthquake occurred on November 26, 2005. After the earthquake, we carded out a repeated geomagnetic survey at 21 stations in the Jiujiang-Ruichang region and created a corresponding ＂2005.0 partially revised surface spline model of China geomagnetic field＂. By comparing the above three models, analyzing the geomagnetic horizontal component at the profile in the Jiujiang-Ruichang region and quantitatively studying the geomagnetic data of every stations around the Ms=5.7 earthquake, we have obtained the geomagnetic abnormity associated with this earthquake. Then the geomagnetic abnormity and its relation with seismic activity are discussed in this paper. 相似文献
15.
Abstract Gridded meteorological data are available for all of Norway as time series dating from 1961. A new way of interpolating precipitation in space from observed values is proposed. Based on the criteria that interpolated precipitation fields in space should be consistent with observed spatial statistics, such as spatial mean, variance and intermittency, spatial fields of precipitation are simulated from a gamma distribution with parameters determined from observed data, adjusted for intermittency. The simulated data are distributed in space, using the spatial pattern derived from kriging. The proposed method is compared to indicator kriging and to the current methodology used for producing gridded precipitation data. Cross-validation gave similar results for the three methods with respect to RMSE, temporal mean and standard deviation, whereas a comparison on estimated spatial variance showed that the new method has a near perfect agreement with observations. Indicator kriging underestimated the spatial variance by 60–80% and the current method produced a significant scatter in its estimates. Citation Skaugen, T. & Andersen, J. (2010) Simulated precipitation fields with variance-consistent interpolation. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 676–686. 相似文献
16.
Estimation and prediction of the spatial occurrence of fish species using Bayesian latent Gaussian models 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
Facundo Muñoz M. Grazia Pennino David Conesa Antonio López-Quílez José M. Bellido 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(5):1171-1180
A methodological approach for modelling the occurrence patterns of species for the purpose of fisheries management is proposed here. The presence/absence of the species is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model using the geographical and environmental characteristics of each fishing location. Maps of predicted probabilities of presence are generated using Bayesian kriging. Bayesian inference on the parameters and prediction of presence/absence in new locations (Bayesian kriging) are made by considering the model as a latent Gaussian model, which allows the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation ( INLA ) software (which has been seen to be quite a bit faster than the well-known MCMC methods). In particular, the spatial effect has been implemented with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The methodology is evaluated on Mediterranean horse mackerel (Trachurus mediterraneus) in the Western Mediterranean. The analysis shows that environmental and geographical factors can play an important role in directing local distribution and variability in the occurrence of species. Although this approach is used to recognize the habitat of mackerel, it could also be for other different species and life stages in order to improve knowledge of fish populations and communities. 相似文献
17.
The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of
damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship,
the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics,
site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and
the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake
prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.
Foundation item: National important fundamental research “The Basic Research of Important Project in Damage Environment” and The important
project “The Seismic Hazard Assessment Research and Anti-earthquake Structure Research” from China Earthquake Administration
during the 10th Five-year Plan.
Contribution No. 04FE1008, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. 相似文献
18.
In this paper, we show how to estimate the phase velocities of multi-mode signals as present in 2-D shallow seismic surveys
along a seismic line with the help of a method that is based on the deformation of the wavelet spectra of the seismic traces.
In analogy with frequency-wavenumber (f–k) analysis, we perform “frequency-velocity” analysis using the correlations between phases of the wavelet spectra. Our method
has two tuning parameters — the parameter of an analyzing wavelet and the parameter of a threshold operation. Numerical and
experimental examples are presented to illustrate how the method accurately extracts the phase velocity from single- and multi-mode
signals. 相似文献
19.
Following a new train of thinking, this paper has explored first the potential information in the ground resistivity data observed by the existing geoelectric observation system, investigated and proposed a new dimensionless geoelectric precursor factor, the degree of ground resistivity anisotropy, S, and studied the characteristics of dynamic evolution pattern of S during the seismogenic process. The results show that, during the seismogenic process, the degree of ground resistivity anisotropy (S) displays a process of 'normal' →'abnormal strengthening (amplitude, range)' →abnormal weakening' → 'earthquake occurrence'→ 'normal'. The earthquake would occur at the time when the S value has entered the late stage of strengthening and turns to weaken and in the gradient belt on the margin of S anomaly region. The dynamic evolution pattern of S reflects the changes of the tectonic stress field during the seismogenic process. Therefore, it would be possible to trace the process of earthquake generation and occurrence from the dynamic evolution pattern of S so as to service earthquake prediction. 相似文献
20.
W. F. Curi T. E. Unny 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1995,9(2):133-149
The generation of the second and higher order moment equations for a set of stochastic differential equations based on Ito's differential lemma is difficult, even for small system of equations. From the knowledge of the statistical properties of the Gaussian white noises associated with the parameters and input coefficients of a set of stochastic differential equations of typeA.+B.Z=C(t), a way to automatically generate the second order moment equations in a computer is presented in this paper. The resulting set of first and second order moment equations is also presented in the same state-space form of the original set of stochastic differential equations through a vectorization of the correlation matrix, which takes advantage of its symmetry. The procedure involved here avoids the inversion of matrixA to apply Ito's differential lemma. Therefore, the presented numerical implementation reduces the computational effort required in the formulation and solution of the moment equations. Moreover, other robust and efficient numerical deterministic integration schemes can be equally applied to the solution of the moment equations. 相似文献