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1.
通过对中国周边地区强震与中国大陆地区强震活动的关系分析,发现中国大陆周边地区活跃时段期间和其后3年是中国大陆地区7级以上地震活动的主要活动时期,周边地区强震活动增强后,中国大陆内部有可能发生7级以上地震,强震活动可能会逐步进入高潮,南北地震带中段未来数年发生7级以上地震的危险性较大.  相似文献   

2.
文彦君  郑文涛 《地震地质》2004,26(1):141-152
官厅水库所在的延怀盆地有多条活动断层分布 ,新构造运动强烈。官厅水库大坝安全与否事关首都安全。为此 ,文中采用有限元方法结合断层位移资料 ,模拟了延怀盆地的现代构造应力场 ;参照模拟的结果 ,结合前人的研究成果 ,对设定地震的烈度进行了拟合 ,讨论了设定地震对大坝的影响。对官厅水库大坝的地震安全性进行了评价。结果表明 :1)延怀盆地最大主压应力方向为N80°~ 85°E ;2 )可能的发震断层为方家冲 -营门矿段断层 ;3)考虑大坝坝址的工程地质条件、发震断层与大坝的空间位置关系、历史大地震对大坝的影响等因素 ,则大坝的地震危险性将有所提高  相似文献   

3.
利用最大熵谱分析与显著周期叠加建模的方法,首先对官厅水库及邻区的历史地震活动进行最大熵谱分析,然后利用所得到的显著周期进行建模,最后对未来50年内官厅水库及邻区的地震危险性进行了分析和预测。本文还用熵谱谱阵分析法,分析了地震活动周期的相对稳定性和时变性,并指出在地震预测中应注意对时变性的研究。  相似文献   

4.
由昆仑山口西8.1级地震分析中国大陆1~3年地震大形势   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
在昆仑山口西8.1级地震震前分析基础上,对该次地震对中国大陆地震活动趋势的影响进行了分析,认为这次地震是20世纪以来第五活跃幕闭幕阶段的最大地震,据震前3年地震活动类比等推测,未来3年内中国大陆西部仍可能发生7级以上地震,东部地区可能发生少量6级地震。  相似文献   

5.
2005年9月新疆克孜尔震群活动特征分析与震后趋势判定   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
2005年9~10月新疆拜城县克孜尔地区发生5次4级地震,对该次震群活动的序列特征分析表明,这是一次非前兆性震群。震群中最大地震震源机制解和区域构造特征显示,本次震群的发生可能与克孜尔断裂活动有关。对比分析历史震群及其前后新疆及周边的地震活动后认为,本次震群附近短期内不大可能发生更大地震,但震群活动可能反映了新疆区域应力场增强,新疆及周边地区有发生中强以上地震的可能。  相似文献   

6.
石绍先  曹刻 《高原地震》2002,14(1):32-40
分析研究了2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级巨震对欧亚地震带、中国大陆及云南未来地震趋势的影响,指出巨震后10-20年欧亚带可能处于巨震活跃时段,其间可能发生多次巨震;同期中国大陆相应处于地震活跃期,大陆西部有发生多次7.0级以上大震的可能;受欧亚带大震活动过程及巨震调整影响,未来1-3年云南省可能进入新的活跃期,6-7级强震危险性增加。  相似文献   

7.
内蒙古乌拉特前旗地区地震活动趋势分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
通过对1998-2000年7月内蒙古乌拉特前度地区的地震活动(包括西山咀震群)特征及一些测震学指标变化特征的分析,研究了该地区未来地震的活动趋势,认为未来1年内该区发生6.0级以上中强地震的可能性不大,但可能发生4级或5级左右的地震,沿经度和纬度的震源深度剖面上显示的空区,可能是未来能量积累的区域。  相似文献   

8.
通过分析我国南北地震带(以下简称南北带)有仪器记录以来发生的大震后,发现存在约10年主体大震活动区,并自北而南有4次转移图像;同时对汶川8级大震前后的震情活动进行分析,认为未来10年南北带北段及以西地区将进入活跃期,很有可能发生多次7级以上地震,但也可能南移;未来几年四川地区可能再次发生大震,甘肃东南部地区有可能发生6级以上地震。  相似文献   

9.
根据“郑州市城市活断层探测与地震危险性评价(二期)”综合目标区断层最大潜在地震判定结果,郑州市近东西向断裂有老鸦陈断裂和上街断裂等。老鸦陈断裂第四纪不活动,上街断裂等可能具有发生5—5.5级地震的能力。为了得到最大地震的发震概率,划分了统计区及潜在震源区,得到了地震活动性参数及空间分布函数。最终得出了郑州市断裂未来50年发生1次5级以上地震的概率为6%,未来100年发生1次5级以上地震的概率为11%。  相似文献   

10.
郑州市断裂最大潜在地震发震概率评价   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
根据“郑州市城市活断层探测与地震危险性评价(二期)”综合目标区断层最大潜在地震判定结果,郑州市近东西向断裂有老鸦陈断裂和上街断裂等.老鸦陈断裂第四纪不活动,上街断裂等可能具有发生5-5.5级地震的能力.为了得到最大地震的发震概率,划分了统计区及潜在震源区,得到了地震活动性参数及空间分布函数.最终得出了郑州市断裂未来50年发生1次5级以上地震的概率为6%,未来100年发生1次5级以上地震的概率为11%.  相似文献   

11.
正SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences,an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and published by Science China Press and Springer,is committed to publishing high-quality,original results in both basic and applied research.  相似文献   

12.
正SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences,an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and published by Science China Press and Springer,is committed to publishing high-quality,original results in  相似文献   

13.
In natural waters arsenic concentrations up to a few milligrams per litre were measured. The natural content of arsenic found in soils varies between 0.01 mg/kg and a few hundred milligrams per kilogram. Anthropogenic sources of arsenic in the environment are the smelting of ores, the burning of coal, and the use of arsenic compounds in many products and production processes in the past. A lot of arsenic compounds are toxic and cause acute and chronic poisoning. In aqueous environment the inorganic arsenic species arsenite (As(III)) and arsenate (As(V)) are the most abundant species. The mobility of these species is influenced by the pH value, the redox potential, and the presence of adsorbents such as oxides and hydroxides of Fe(III), Al(III), Mn(III/IV), humic substances, and clay minerals.  相似文献   

14.
15.
Due to deleterious effects on non-target organisms, the use of organotin compounds on boat hulls of small vessels (<25 m) has been widely prohibited. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) resolved that the complete prohibition on organotin compounds acting as biocides in antifouling systems should commence in 2008. As a result of restrictions on the use of organotin based paints, other antifouling formulations containing organic biocides have been utilised. This survey was conducted to assess the contamination of replacement biocides in the marine environment following the ban of TBT-based paints. Surface sediments samples were collected in the major ports and marinas along the France Mediterranean coastline (Cote d’Azur) and analysed for organotin compounds, Irgarol 1051, Sea-nine 211TM, Chlorothalonil, Dichlofluanid and Folpet. Every port and marina exhibited high levels of organotin compounds, with concentrations in sediments ranging from 37 ng Sn g−1dry wt in Menton Garavan to over 4000 ng Sn g−1dry wt close to the ship chandler within the port of Villefranche-sur-Mer. TBT degradation indexes suggested that fresh inputs are still made. Among the other antifoulants monitored, only Irgarol 1051 exhibited measurable concentrations in almost every port, with concentrations ranging from 40 ng g−1dry wt (Cannes) to almost 700 ng g−1dry wt (Villefranche-sur-Mer, ship chandler).  相似文献   

16.
Microcystins are cyclic heptapeptide toxins produced by a range of cyanobacterial genera. These cyanobacteria occur naturally in drinking water reservoirs subject to eutrophication, and in rivers and natural lakes. Because of the diversity of organisms, the toxins occur, from oligo‐mesotrophic lakes in North Temperate latitudes, to hypertrophic tropical ponds. The toxins are responsible for numerous cases of injury and death of domestic animals, and human poisoning from drinking water. The initial poisoning includes hepatic cell death. This leads to secondary effects from liver deficiency, including jaundice and photosensitisation. The toxic effects are largely due to inhibition of phosphatase enzymes, acting to regulate protein phosphorylation. The consequences include structural damage, apoptosis and, at lower concentrations, cell cycle effects and tumour promotion. As there is no clear evidence for direct carcinogenesis by microcystins, they are classed as non‐carcinogenic toxins in drinking water. Guideline Values for safe drinking water are derived from data for subchronic rodent toxicity, using the No Observed Adverse Effect Level (the highest dose giving no toxicity). To this dose are applied uncertainty factors, to calculate a Tolerable Daily Intake. On the basis of a standard bodyweight and water consumption the Guideline Value is determined for drinking water. For microcystin‐LR the WHO have set a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg/L for drinking water.  相似文献   

17.
The geomagnetic field and secular variation exhibit asymmetrical spatial features which are possibly originating from an heterogeneous thermal control of the Earth's lower mantle on the core. The identification of this control in magnetic data is subject to several difficulties, some of which can be alleviated by the use of core surface flow models. Using numerical dynamos driven by heterogeneous boundary heat flux, we confirm that within the parameter space accessible to simulations, time average surface flows obey a simple thermal wind equilibrium between the Coriolis and buoyancy forces, the Lorentz, inertial and viscous forces playing only a secondary role, even for Elsasser numbers significantly larger than 1. Furthermore, we average the models over the duration of three vortex turnovers, and correlate them with a longer time average which fully reveals the signature of boundary heterogeneity. This allows us to quantify the possibility of observing mantle control in core surface flows averaged over a short time period. A scaling analysis is performed in order to apply the results to the Earth's core. We find that three vortex turnovers could represent between 100 and 360 years of Earth time, and that the heat flux heterogeneity at the core-mantle boundary could be large enough to yield an observable signature of thermal mantle control in a time average core surface flow within reach of the available geomagnetic data.  相似文献   

18.
A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.  相似文献   

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正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and  相似文献   

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