首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L)?=?A?+?B·(5 – M)?+?C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.  相似文献   

2.
A great earthquake of M S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.  相似文献   

3.
The seismic hazard and risk analysis for the onshore Groningen gas field requires information about local soil properties, in particular shear-wave velocity (VS). A fieldwork campaign was conducted at 18 surface accelerograph stations of the monitoring network. The subsurface in the region consists of unconsolidated sediments and is heterogeneous in composition and properties. A range of different methods was applied to acquire in situ VS values to a target depth of at least 30 m. The techniques include seismic cone penetration tests (SCPT) with varying source offsets, multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) on Rayleigh waves with different processing approaches, microtremor array, cross-hole tomography and suspension P-S logging. The offset SCPT, cross-hole tomography and common midpoint cross-correlation (CMPcc) processing of MASW data all revealed lateral variations on length scales of several to tens of metres in this geological setting. SCPTs resulted in very detailed VS profiles with depth, but represent point measurements in a heterogeneous environment. The MASW results represent VS information on a larger spatial scale and smooth some of the heterogeneity encountered at the sites. The combination of MASW and SCPT proved to be a powerful and cost-effective approach in determining representative VS profiles at the accelerograph station sites. The measured VS profiles correspond well with the modelled profiles and they significantly enhance the ground motion model derivation. The similarity between the theoretical transfer function from the VS profile and the observed amplification from vertical array stations is also excellent.  相似文献   

4.
Seismic intensity measures (IMs) perform a pivotal role in probabilistic seismic demand modeling. Many studies investigated appropriate IMs for structures without considering soil liquefaction potential. In particular, optimal IMs for probabilistic seismic demand modeling of bridges in liquefied and laterally spreading ground are not comprehensively studied. In this paper, a coupled-bridge-soil-foundation model is adopted to perform an in-depth investigation of optimal IMs among 26 IMs found in the literature. Uncertainties in structural and geotechnical material properties and geometric parameters of bridges are considered in the model to produce comprehensive scenarios. Metrics such as efficiency, practicality, proficiency, sufficiency and hazard computability are assessed for different demand parameters. Moreover, an information theory based approach is adopted to evaluate the relative sufficiency among the studied IMs. Results indicate the superiority of velocity-related IMs compared to acceleration, displacement and time-related ones. In particular, Housner spectrum intensity (HI), spectral acceleration at 2.0 s (S a-20), peak ground velocity (PGV), cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) and its modified version (CAV 5) are the optimal IMs. Conversely, Arias intensity (I a ) and shaking intensity rate (SIR) which are measures often used in liquefaction evaluation or related structural demand assessment demonstrate very low correlations with the demand parameters. Besides, the geometric parameters do not evidently affect the choice of optimal IMs. In addition, the information theory based sufficiency ranking of IMs shows an identical result to that with the correlation measure based on coefficient of determination (R 2). This means that R 2 can be used to preliminarily assess the relative sufficiency of IMs.  相似文献   

5.
The regularities in the radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the regions of the North Caucasus are analyzed for estimating the ground motion parameters during the probable future strong earthquakes. Based on the records of the regional earthquakes with magnitudes MW ~ 3.9–5.6 within epicentral distances up to ~300 km obtained during the period of digital measurements at the Sochi and Anapa seismic stations, the Q-factors in the vicinities of these sites are estimated at ~55 f0.9 and ~90f0.7, respectively. The estimates were obtained by the coda normalization method developed by Aki, Rautian, and other authors. This method is based on the phenomenon of suppression of the earthquake (source) effects and local (site) responses by coda waves in the S-wave spectra. The obtained Q-factor estimates can be used for forecasting the ground shaking parameters for the future probable strong earthquakes in the North Caucasus in the vicinities of Sochi and Anapa.  相似文献   

6.
The thermal structure of continental lithosphere (the temperature, heat flows, and heat generation in the crust and lithosphere) is reconstructed from geothermal, seismic, and petrologic data. The first step is the determination of the temperature profile from absolute P and S wave velocities (T P, S ). The T P, S profile is then adjusted to a thermophysical model of conductive transfer. In addition, the surface heat flow and the T P, S profile are used to determine heat generation, thicknesses of crustal layers, and heat flow components in the crust and lithosphere. A feature inherent in the solution of the thermophysical inverse problem obtained in this paper is the use of constraints derived from the temperature reconstruction by seismic data inversion. As a result, the analytical dependence of the temperature on depth, the intensity of radiogenic heat sources in the crust, and heat flow components in the crust and lithosphere are determined.  相似文献   

7.
Accelerometric data from the well-studied valley EUROSEISTEST are used to investigate ground motion uncertainty and variability. We define a simple local ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) and investigate changes in standard deviation (σ) and its components, the between-event variability (τ) and within-event variability (φ). Improving seismological metadata significantly reduces τ (30–50%), which in turn reduces the total σ. Improving site information reduces the systematic site-to-site variability, φ S2S (20–30%), in turn reducing φ, and ultimately, σ. Our values of standard deviations are lower than global values from literature, and closer to path-specific than site-specific values. However, our data have insufficient azimuthal coverage for single-path analysis. Certain stations have higher ground-motion variability, possibly due to topography, basin edge or downgoing wave effects. Sensitivity checks show that 3 recordings per event is a sufficient data selection criterion, however, one of the dataset’s advantages is the large number of recordings per station (9–90) that yields good site term estimates. We examine uncertainty components binning our data with magnitude from 0.01 to 2 s; at smaller magnitudes, τ decreases and φ SS increases, possibly due to κ and source-site trade-offs Finally, we investigate the alternative approach of computing φ SS using existing GMPEs instead of creating an ad hoc local GMPE. This is important where data are insufficient to create one, or when site-specific PSHA is performed. We show that global GMPEs may still capture φ SS , provided that: (1) the magnitude scaling errors are accommodated by the event terms; (2) there are no distance scaling errors (use of a regionally applicable model). Site terms (φ S2S ) computed by different global GMPEs (using different site-proxies) vary significantly, especially for hard-rock sites. This indicates that GMPEs may be poorly constrained where they are sometimes most needed, i.e., for hard rock.  相似文献   

8.
In this study, continuous wavelet transform is applied to estimate the frequency-dependent quality factor of shear waves, Q S , in northwestern Iran. The dataset used in this study includes velocigrams of more than 50 events with magnitudes between 4.0 and 6.5, which have occurred in the study area. The CWT-based method shows a high-resolution technique for the estimation of S-wave frequency-dependent attenuation. The quality factor values are determined in the form of a power law as Q S (f)?=?(147?±?16)f 0.71?±?0.02 and (126?±?12)f 0.73?±?0.02 for vertical and horizontal components, respectively, where f is between 0.9 and 12 Hz. Furthermore, in order to verify the reliability of the suggested Q S estimator method, an additional test is performed by using accelerograms of Ahar-Varzaghan dual earthquakes on August 11, 2012, of moment magnitudes 6.4 and 6.3 and their aftershocks. Results indicate that the estimated Q S values from CWT-based method are not very sensitive to the numbers and types of waveforms used (velocity or acceleration).  相似文献   

9.
Results of investigation of the lithosphere in the Kamchatka seismic focal zone from dynamic characteristics of earthquake records obtained at regional stations are presented. It is assumed that the specificity of the source zone can be estimated by the relation Cr = K P ? bK S ? c characterizing relative energies (energy classes, according to [Fedotov, 1972]) of short period transverse and longitudinal waves in the source. Azimuthal, spatial, and temporal variations in Cr and their relation to focal mechanisms are examined. Spatiotemporal variations in this parameter are shown to be caused by the influence of variations in the conditions in the source zone (its substance or process) on the radiation of P and S waves.  相似文献   

10.
At the beginning of the 21st century, a series of great earthquakes were recorded in northeastern Tibet, along the periphery of the Bayan Hara lithospheric block. An earthquake with MS = 8.1 occurred within the East Kunlun fault zone in the Kunlun Mountains, which caused an extended surface rupture with left-lateral strike slip. An earthquake with MS = 8 occurred in Wenchuan (China) on May 12, 2008, giving rise to an extended overthrust along the Lunmanshan fault zone. An earthquake with MS = 7.1 occurred in Yushu (China) on April 14, 2010; its epicenter was on the Grazze–Yushu–Funchuoshan fault; a left-lateral strikeslip offset was observed on the surface. An earthquake with MS = 7 occurred in the vicinity of Lushan on April 20, 2013; its epicenter was within the Lunmanshan fault zone, 103 km southwest of the zone of the catastrophic Wenchuan earthquake. An earthquake with MS = 8.2 occurred in Nepal on April 25, 2015. Based on the CSN seismic catalog, the energy of all earthquakes in eastern Tibet at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries was estimated. It was found that Tibet was seismically quiet from 1980 to 2000. The beginning of the 21st century has been marked by seismic activation with earthquake sources migrating southward to surround the Bayan Hara lithospheric block from every quarter. Therefore, this block can be regarded as one of the most seismically active regions of China.  相似文献   

11.
Aftershock sequences of some strong earthquakes of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and Japan are examined. Such source parameters as the length L, along-dip width W, motion on fault D, and stress drop Δσ are determined from the aftershock sequences considered. The values of these parameters were obtained by the formal estimation of linear source parameters (lower bound estimates) and visually (upper bound estimates). The correlation dependences of the obtained parameters on the surface wave (M S ) and seismic moment (M W ) magnitudes are calculated.  相似文献   

12.
The VPREMOON seismic reference Moon model (Garcia et al., 2011) has been tested with respect to the thermal regime and chemical composition of the mantle. Based on a self-consistent thermodynamic approach and petrological models of the lunar mantle covering a wide range of concentrations of CaO, Al2O3, and FeO, we convert the P- and S-wave velocity profiles to the temperature–depth profiles. The solution procedure relies on the method of the Gibbs free energy minimization and the equations of state for the mantle material which take into account the effects of phase transformations, anharmonicity, and anelasticity. We find that regardless of the chemical composition, the positive P- and S-wave velocity gradient in the lunar mantle leads to a negative temperature gradient, which has no physical basis. For adequate mantle temperatures, the P- and S-wave velocities should remain almost constant or slightly decrease with depth (especially VS) as a result of the effects of the temperature, which grows faster than pressure. These findings underscore the importance of the relationship of the thermodynamics and physics of minerals with seismology.  相似文献   

13.
The neural network estimates of seismic P- and S-wave velocities from electrical resistivity of the rocks and, vice versa, resistivity estimates from seismic velocities are presented. It is shown that, depending on the ratio between the volumes of the known data and the data to be reconstructed, the accuracy of the estimates of the P- and S-wave velocities ranges within 1–4 and 4–6%, respectively. The logarithmic resistivity is estimated from seismic P- and S-velocities as accurately as up to 15–17%. In all cases, the biggest errors are obtained when the estimates are based on correlated data.  相似文献   

14.
The Sakarya prefecture is an interesting area with various seismicity types. This activity comes from earthquakes occurring at the North Anatolian Fault Zone and from a few quarry blast areas in the region. These quarry blast recordings produce errors in the determination of active faults and mapping of the microearthquake activity. Therefore, to recognize the tectonic activity in the region, we need to be able to discriminate between earthquakes and quarry blasts in the catalogues. In this study, a statistical analysis method (linear discriminant function) has been applied to classify seismic events occurring in the Sakarya region. We used 110 seismic events that were recorded by Sakarya University Seismic Station between 2012 and 2014. Time and frequency variant parameters, maximum S wave and maximum P wave amplitude ratio (S/P), the spectral ratio (Sr), maximum frequency (fmax), and total signal duration of the waveform were used for discrimination analyses. The maximum frequency (fmax) versus time duration of the seismic signal gives a higher classification percentage (94%) than the other discriminants. At the end of this study, 41 out of 110 events (44%) are determined as quarry blasts, and 62 (56%) are considered as earthquakes.  相似文献   

15.
This study analyzes and compares the P- and S-wave displacement spectra from local earthquakes and explosions of similar magnitudes. We propose a new approach to discrimination between low-magnitude shallow earthquakes and explosions by using ratios of P- to S-wave corner frequencies as a criterion. We have explored 2430 digital records of the Israeli Seismic Network (ISN) from 456 local events (226 earthquakes, 230 quarry blasts, and a few underwater explosions) of magnitudes Md?=?1.4–3.4, which occurred at distances up to 250 km during 2001–2013 years. P-wave and S-wave displacement spectra were computed for all events following Brune’s source model of earthquakes (1970, 1971) and applying the distance correction coefficients (Shapira and Hofstetter, Teconophysics 217:217–226, 1993; Ataeva G, Shapira A, Hofstetter A, J Seismol 19:389-401, 2015), The corner frequencies and moment magnitudes were determined using multiple stations for each event, and then the comparative analysis was performed.The analysis showed that both P-wave and especially S-wave displacement spectra of quarry blasts demonstrate the corner frequencies lower than those obtained from earthquakes of similar magnitudes. A clear separation between earthquake and explosion populations was obtained for ratios of P- to S-wave corner frequency f 0(P)/f 0(S). The ratios were computed for each event with corner frequencies f 0 of P- and S-wave, which were obtained from the measured f 0 I at individual stations, then corrected for distance and finally averaged. We obtained empirically the average estimation of f 0(P)/f 0(S)?=?1.23 for all used earthquakes, and 1.86 for all explosions. We found that the difference in the ratios can be an effective discrimination parameter which does not depend on estimated moment magnitude M w .The new multi-station Corner Frequency Discriminant (CFD) for earthquakes and explosions in Israel was developed based on ratios P- to S-wave corner frequencies f 0(P)/f 0(S), with the empirical threshold value of the ratio for Israel as 1.48.  相似文献   

16.
Liquefaction which is one of the most destructive ground deformations occurs during an earthquake in saturated or partially saturated silty and sandy soils, which may cause serious damages such as settlement and tilting of structures due to shear strength loss of soils. Standard (SPT) and cone (CPT) penetration tests as well as the shear wave velocity (V s)-based methods are commonly used for the determination of liquefaction potential. In this research, it was aimed to compare the SPT and V s-based liquefaction analysis methods by generating different earthquake scenarios. Accordingly, the Erci? residential area, which was mostly affected by the 2011 Van earthquake (M w = 7.1), was chosen as the model site. Erci? (Van, Turkey) and its surroundings settle on an alluvial plain which consists of silty and sandy layers with shallow groundwater level. Moreover, Çald?ran, Erci?–Kocap?nar and Van Fault Zones are the major seismic sources of the region which have a significant potential of producing large magnitude earthquakes. After liquefaction assessments, the liquefaction potential in the western part of the region and in the coastal regions nearby the Lake Van is found to be higher than the other locations. Thus, it can be stated that the soil tightness and groundwater level dominantly control the liquefaction potential. In addition, the lateral spreading and sand boiling spots observed after the 23rd October 2011 Van earthquake overlap the scenario boundaries predicted in this study. Eventually, the use of V s-based liquefaction analysis in collaboration with the SPT results is quite advantageous to assess the rate of liquefaction in a specific area.  相似文献   

17.
The use of seismic direct hydrocarbon indicators is very common in exploration and reservoir development to minimise exploration risk and to optimise the location of production wells. DHIs can be enhanced using AVO methods to calculate seismic attributes that approximate relative elastic properties. In this study, we analyse the sensitivity to pore fluid changes of a range of elastic properties by combining rock physics studies and statistical techniques and determine which provide the best basis for DHIs. Gassmann fluid substitution is applied to the well log data and various elastic properties are evaluated by measuring the degree of separation that they achieve between gas sands and wet sands. The method has been applied successfully to well log data from proven reservoirs in three different siliciclastic environments of Cambrian, Jurassic, and Cretaceous ages. We have quantified the sensitivity of various elastic properties such as acoustic and extended elastic (EEI) impedances, elastic moduli (K sat and K sat–μ), lambda–mu–rho method (λρ and μρ), P-to-S-wave velocity ratio (V P/V S), and Poisson’s ratio (σ) at fully gas/water saturation scenarios. The results are strongly dependent on the local geological settings and our modeling demonstrates that for Cambrian and Cretaceous reservoirs, K sat–μ, EEI, V P/V S, and σ are more sensitive to pore fluids (gas/water). For the Jurassic reservoir, the sensitivity of all elastic and seismic properties to pore fluid reduces due to high overburden pressure and the resultant low porosity. Fluid indicators are evaluated using two metrics: a fluid indicator coefficient based on a Gaussian model and an overlap coefficient which makes no assumptions about a distribution model. This study will provide a potential way to identify gas sand zones in future exploration.  相似文献   

18.
Accurate determination of seismic velocity of the crust is important for understanding regional tectonics and crustal evolution of the Earth. We propose a stepwise joint linearized inversion method using surface wave dispersion, Rayleigh wave ZH ratio (i.e., ellipticity), and receiver function data to better resolve 1D crustal shear wave velocity (v S) structure. Surface wave dispersion and Rayleigh wave ZH ratio data are more sensitive to absolute variations of shear wave speed at depths, but their sensitivity kernels to shear wave speeds are different and complimentary. However, receiver function data are more sensitive to sharp velocity contrast (e.g., due to the existence of crustal interfaces) and v P/v S ratios. The stepwise inversion method takes advantages of the complementary sensitivities of each dataset to better constrain the v S model in the crust. We firstly invert surface wave dispersion and ZH ratio data to obtain a 1D smooth absolute v S model and then incorporate receiver function data in the joint inversion to obtain a finer v S model with better constraints on interface structures. Through synthetic tests, Monte Carlo error analyses, and application to real data, we demonstrate that the proposed joint inversion method can resolve robust crustal v S structures and with little initial model dependency.  相似文献   

19.
An attempt has been made to study the behavior of nailed vertical excavations in medium dense to dense cohesionless soil under seismic conditions using a pseudo-dynamic approach. The effect of several parameters such as angle of internal friction of soil(Φ), horizontal(k_h) and vertical(k_v) earthquake acceleration coefficients, amplification factor(f_a), length of nails(L), angle of nail inclination(α) and vertical spacing of nails(S_v) on the stability of nailed vertical excavations has been explored. The limit equilibrium method along with a planar failure surface is used to derive the formulation involved with the pseudo-dynamic approach, considering axial pullout of the installed nails. A comparison of the pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic approaches has been established in order to explore the effectiveness of the pseudo-dynamic approach over pseudo-static analysis, since most of the seismic stability studies on nailed vertical excavations are based on the latter. The results are expressed in terms of the global factor of safety(FOS). Seismic stability, i.e., the FOS of nailed vertical excavations is found to decrease with increase in the horizontal and vertical earthquake forces. The present values of FOS are compared with those available in the literature.  相似文献   

20.
During the ruptures of an earthquake,the strain energy.△E,.will be transferred into,at least,three parts,i.e..the seismic radiation energy(E_s),fracture energy(E_g),and frictional energy(E_f),that is,△E = E_s + E_g + E_f.Friction,which is represented by a velocity- and state-dependent friction law by some researchers,controls the three parts.One of the main parameters of the law is the characteristic slip displacement.D_c.It is significant and necessary to evaluate the reliable value of D_c from observed and inverted seismic data.Since D_c controls the radiation efficiency.η_R = E_s/(E_s+ E_g),the value of η_r is a good constraint of estimating D_c.Integrating observed data and inverted results of source parameters from recorded seismograms.the values of E_s and E_g of an earthquake can be measured,thus leading to the value of η_R.The constraint used to estimate the reliable value of D_c will be described in this work.An example of estimates of D_c.based on the observed and inverted values of source parameters of the September 20,1999 M_S 7.6 Chi-Chi(Ji-Ji).Taiwan region,earthquake will be presented.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号