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1.
Introduction Stress release model (SRM) was proposed by Vere-Jones (1978) for statistical study of seismicity. Physically it is a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory of earthquake genesis. The classical elastic rebound model suggests that the stress has been slowly accumulating until the burst of an earthquake occurrence for stress release. This can be simulated by the jump Markov process in stochastic field, and SRM was developed on the basis of Knopoff (s Markov model (Knop… 相似文献
2.
ABSTRACTClimate change may have significant consequences for water resources availability and management at the basin scale. This is particularly true for areas already suffering from water stress, such as the Mediterranean area. This work focused on studying these impacts in the Llobregat basin supplying the Barcelona region. Several climate projections, adapted to the spatiotemporal resolution of the study, were combined with a daily hydrological model to estimate future water availability. Depending on the scenario and the time period, different assessment indicators such as reliability and resilience showed a future decrease in water resources (up to 40%), with drought periods becoming more frequent. An additional uncertainty analysis showed the high variability of the results (annual water availability ranging from 147 hm3/year to 274 hm3/year), thus making accurate projections difficult. Finally, the study illustrates how climate change could be taken into account to provide adaptive measures for the future.
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor J. Thompson 相似文献
3.
Hydrological model comparison and assessment: criteria from catchment scales and temporal resolution
ABSTRACTThis study examines the performance of three hydrological models, namely the artificial neural network (ANN) model, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning-D (HBV-D) model, and the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) over the upper reaches of the Huai River basin. The assessment is done by using databases of different temporal resolution and by further examining the applicability of SWIM for different catchment sizes. The results show that at monthly scale the performance of the ANN model is better than that of HBV-D and SWIM. The ANN model can be applied at any temporal scale as it establishes an artificial precipitation–runoff relationship for various time scales by only using monthly precipitation, temperature and runoff data. However, at daily scale the performance of both HBV-D and SWIM are similar or even better than the ANN model. In addition, the performance of SWIM at a small catchment size (less than 10 000 km2) is much better than at a larger catchment size. In view of climate change modelling, HBV-D and SWIM might be integrated in a dynamical atmosphere-water-cycle modelling rather than the ANN model due to their use of observed physical links instead of artificial relations within a black box.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes 相似文献
4.
Abstract The caesium-137 technique affords both an alternative to conventional measurement methods and an effective quantitative estimate of soil redistribution at the basin scale. Among the available calibration relationships which link the degree of increase or depletion of the 137Cs activity relative to the baseline 137Cs input and sediment yield, the mass balance approach has received increased application for its physical basis. First, the applicability of the refined simplified point-based mass balance (RSPMB) model of Zhang et al. (1999) at the scale of the morphological unit is proposed herein. The 137Cs spatial distribution measured in a small Sicilian basin and the spatial distribution of the sediment yield calculated by a sediment delivery distributed approach are used to estimate values of the two key parameters of the RSPMB model, φ1 and φ2, the fraction of 137Cs fallout incorporated into soil and a particle size correction factor, respectively. Finally, the best procedure for experimental testing of a distributed sediment yield model by using caesium-137 measurements is investigated. 相似文献
5.
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos Marco Borga Davide Zoccatelli Emmanouil N. Anagnostou 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1363-1376
AbstractThe concept of “catchment-scale storm velocity” quantifies the rate of storm motion up and down the basin accounting for the interaction between the rainfall space–time variability and the structure of the drainage network. It provides an assessment of the impact of storm motion on flood shape. We evaluate the catchment-scale storm velocity for the 29 August 2003 extreme storm that occurred on the 700 km2-wide Fella River basin in the eastern Italian Alps. The storm was characterized by the high rate of motion of convective cells across the basin. Analysis is carried out for a set of basins that range in area from 8 to 623 km2 to: (a) determine velocity magnitudes for different sub-basins; (b) examine the relationship of velocity with basin scale and (c) assess the impact of storm motion on simulated flood response. Two spatially distributed hydrological models of varying degree of complexity in the representation of the runoff generation processes are used to evaluate the effects of the storm velocity on flood modelling and investigate model dependencies of the results. It is shown that catchment-scale storm velocity has a non-linear dependence on basin scale and generally exhibits rather moderate values, in spite of the strong kinematic characteristics of individual storm elements. Consistently with these observations and for both models, hydrological simulations show that storm motion has an almost negligible effect on the flood response modelling.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Nikolopoulos, E.I., Borga, M., Zoccatelli, D., and Anagnostou, E.N., 2014. Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification, scale dependence and effect on flood response. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1363–1376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923889 相似文献
6.
AbstractRemote sensing techniques are useful for agro-hydrological monitoring at the farm scale because the availability of spatially and temporally distributed data improves agricultural models for irrigation and crop yield optimization under water scarcity conditions. This research focuses on the surface water content retrieval using active microwave data. Two semi-empirical models were chosen as these showed the best performances in simulating cross and co-polarized backscatter. Thus, these models were coupled to obtain reliable assessments of both soil water content and soil roughness. The use of the coupled model enables one to avoid using roughness measured in situ. Remote sensing images and in situ data were collected between April and July 2006 within the European Space Agency-funded project AgriSAR 2006. The images data set includes L-band in HH, VV and VH polarizations acquired from the airborne E-SAR sensor, operated by the German Aerospace Centre. Results were validated using in situ soil water content and roughness measurements. The results show that reliable assessment of both soil roughness (r 2 up to ?0.8) and soil water content (r 2 ? 0.9) can be retrieved in fields characterized by low fractional coverage. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof Citation Capodici, F., Maltese, A., Ciraolo, G., La Loggia, G., and D’Urso, G., 2013. Coupling two radar backscattering models to assess soil roughness and surface water content at the farm scale. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1677–1689. 相似文献
7.
Sean W. Fleming 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(16):2849-2859
ABSTRACTIncreased demand associated with population or economic growth, and decreased supply under some climatic shifts, obviously contribute to water scarcity. As a fresh perspective, we offer a generic theoretical treatment using a computational “maquette”, employing parameterizations to avoid assumptions about the origin and scale of climate and demand changes. The results suggest a distinct (and more subtle) point: the sensitivities of water stress to changes in both the mean and the variance of hydroclimate are modulated by demand level. Theoretical behaviours generated by the reduced-complexity model are surprisingly intricate, including profound nonlinearities and bifurcations. These may form a lower bound on the dynamical complexity of the demand–supply–scarcity nexus. Overall, the outcomes suggest that demand growth substantially intensifies and nonlinearizes water stress sensitivities to secular climate variation, and, in particular, that the interactions between demand changes and second-order hydroclimatic non-stationarity may produce non-intuitive water scarcity impacts requiring much closer study.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR N. Ilich 相似文献
8.
AbstractA simple model is given that describes the response of the upper ocean to an imposed wind stress. The stress drives both mean and turbulent flow near the surface, which is taken to mix thoroughly a layer of depth h, and to erode the stably stratified fluid below. A marginal stability criterion based on a Froude number is used to close the problem, and it is suggested that the mean momentum has a strong role in the mixing process. The initial deepening is predicted to obeywhere u. is the friction velocity of the imposed stress, N the ambient buoyancy frequency, and t the time.After one-half inertial period the deepening is arrested by rotadeon at a depth h = 22/4 u.{(Nf)+ where f is the Coriolis frequency. The flow is then a “mixed Ekman” layer, with strong inertial oscillations superimposed on it. Three quarters of the mean energy of the deepening layer is found to be kinetic, and only one-quarter potential.Heating and cooling are included in the model, but stress dominates for time-scales of a day or less. Non-uniform stratification and currents existing prior to the onset of the wind are easily included.Agreement between the first formula above and laboratory experiments of Kato and Phillips is very satisfactory; the second formula is consistent with observations of Francis and Stommel, though a more thorough test is needed. Oceanic observations in general support the assumption of slab-like mean profiles and direct response of the fluid to local winds. 相似文献
9.
Application of apparent stress in earthquake prediction 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
On the basis of the assumption that ω2 model accords with source displacement spectra of moderate-small shocks, we calculate the apparent stress values of 1 020 moderate-small shocks recorded by the Digital Seismic Network of Yunnan Province by using the low-frequency flat level and corner frequencies. The results show that the apparent stress is of good significance in earthquake prediction. The moderate-small shock with apparent stress larger than 0.9 MPa can be used as a referential index to predict moderate-strong earthquakes in Yunnan area. And its relevant predictability evaluation (R value) has a high confidence level. 相似文献
10.
ABSTRACT An innovative methodology that combines an indirect physiography-based method for determining the runoff coefficient at a sub-basin scale and a water balance model applied on a daily time scale was developed to calculate the natural groundwater recharge in three watersheds within the Oum Zessar arid area, Tunisia. The effective infiltration was calculated as part of the water surplus by considering the average available water content (AWC) of soil and an average runoff coefficient for each sub-basin. The model indicates that the sub-basins covered mainly by the “artificial” soils of tabias and jessour, characterized by average AWC values greater than 150 mm, did not contribute to natural groundwater recharge over the 10-year period (2003–2012) considered. The estimated volume for the Triassic aquifer amounted to about 4.5 hm3 year?1, which is consistent with previous studies. For the Jurassic and Cretaceous aquifers, the estimated volumes amounted to about 200 dm3 year?1. 相似文献
11.
S. E. JØRGENSEN 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):143-149
Abstract On a regional scale (from about 10 to 105km2) estimations of actual evapotranspiration ET for water balance equations are generally missing. The various methods available at present are briefly described and discussed. The use of remote sensing, in particular infra-red thermometry by satellite, in conjunction with soil energy budget data, is the only method to provide satisfactory data on the same scale in space and lime for water balance models. This method is being studied at the INRA Bioclimatology Station at Avignon in the framework of the European ‘Tellus’ project for using HCMM satellite data. Systems for continuously recording the components of the energy budget and ET have been installed in the Crau plain, north of Marseilles, in both a dry area and a large area of irrigated pastures. By combining the recorded measurements with the satellite data and starting from values for elements of 25 ha (500 m × 500 m), the ET for the whole of the Crau plain can be estimated. First results are analysed and the possibilities and limitations of the method are discussed. 相似文献
12.
DIRK H. DE BOER 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):491-504
Abstract Field data on drainage basin response have a characteristic scale which is determined by the size of the basin investigated. As a rule, information obtained at one particular scale can be extrapolated over a limited scale range only. This study identifies the nature of constraints on spatial scale transference in a series of semiarid badland drainage basins ranging in area from < 1 to 202 260 m2. Research focussed on the rainfall-runoff relationship during a single rainstorm so that the temporal scale was kept constant. Spatial scale transference between systems of differing scale was restricted by morphological and functional constraints. Morphological constraints are caused by morphological elements present in large scale systems but absent in small scale ones. Functional constraints arise solely from the characteristics of the matter and energy flows in the systems of interest. Limits imposed upon spatial scale transferences by morphological and functional constraints are fuzzy rather than sharp in character. 相似文献
13.
On the basis of the assumption that ω^2 model accords with source displacement spectra, we have obtained the mathematical expressions for calculating apparent stresses of moderate-small shocks from low-frequency flat level and comer frequency. By using digital seismic records, apparent stress values are calculated for 823 moderate-small shocks of 4 earthquake series in Yunnan area following corrections for instrument response, propagation influence and site effect. The results show that for the 4 earthquake series in Yunnan area, apparent stress hints precursory information, which means that if a moderate-small shock occurs with apparent stress larger than 1 MPa in an earthquake series, a moderate-strong earthquake will occur afterwards; and if there is not moderate-small shock with apparent stress larger than 1 MPa after a moderate-strong event in an earthquake series, strong aftershock will not occur. The research also indicates that the average apparent stress value is 0.8 MPa in Yunnan area, therefore, apparent stress is not obviously related to seismic magnitude. 相似文献
14.
ABSTRACTThe water balance dynamics and runoff components of a tropical forested catchment (46?km2) on the southwestern Pacific coast of Nicaragua were studied combining hydrometry, geological characterization and hydrochemical and isotopic tracers (three-component hydrograph separation). The climatic water balance was estimated for 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 with net values of 811?mm year-1, 782?mm year-1 and –447?mm year-1, respectively. Runoff components were studied at different spatial and temporal scales, demonstrating that different sources and temporal contributions are controlled by dominant landscape elements and antecedent rainfall. In forested sub-catchments, permeable soils, stratigraphy and steep slopes favour subsurface stormflow generation contributing 50% and 53% to total discharge. At catchment scale, landscape elements such as smooth slopes, wide valleys, deeper soils and water table allow groundwater recharge during rainfall events. Groundwater dominates the hydrograph (50% of total discharge) under dry prior conditions. However, low soil infiltration capacity generates a larger surface runoff component (42%) under wet prior conditions which dominates total discharge. Our results show that forested areas are important to reduce surface runoff and thus soil degradation, which is relevant for the design of water management plans.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor D. Gerten 相似文献
15.
Hydraulic diffusivity and macrodispersivity calculations embedded in a geographic information system
F.A.L. Pacheco 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):930-944
Abstract A numerical technique is presented whereby aquifer hydraulic diffusivities (D) and macrodispersivities (α) are calculated by linear equations rewritten from flow and solute transport differential equations. The approach requires a GIS to calculate spatial and temporal hydraulic head (h) and solute concentration gradients. The model is tested in Portugal, in a semi-confined aquifer periodically monitored for h and chloride/sulphate concentrations. Average D (0.46 m2/s) and α (1975 m) compare favourably with literature results. The relationship between α and scale (L) is also investigated. In this context, two aquifer groups could be identified: the first group is heterogeneous at the “macroscopic” scale (solute travelled distances <1 km), but homogeneous at the “megascopic” scale. The overall scale dependency in this case is given by an equation of logarithmic type. The second group is heterogeneous at the macroscopic and megascopic scales, with a scale dependency of linear type. Citation Pacheco, F.A.L., 2013. Hydraulic diffusivity and macrodispersivity calculations embedded in a geographic information system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 930–944. 相似文献
16.
Issa E. Issa 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1456-1466
AbstractMosul Dam is one of the biggest hydraulic structures in Iraq. Its storage capacity is 11.11 × 109 m3 at a maximum operation level of 330 m a.s.l. The dam became operational in 1986 and no survey has been conducted to determine its storage capacity and establish new operational curves since this date. A topographic map of scale 1:50 000 dated 1983 was converted into triangulated irregular network (TIN) format using the ArcGIS program to evaluate the operational curves. Then the reservoir was surveyed in 2011 to establish the reduction in its storage capacity and to develop new operational curves. The results indicated that the reduction in the storage capacity of the reservoir was 14.73%. This implies that the rate of sedimentation within the reservoir was 45.72 × 106 m3 year?1. These results indicate that most of the sediment was deposited within the upper zone of the reservoir where the River Tigris enters the reservoir.Editor D. KoutsoyiannisCitation Issa, E.I., Al-Ansari, N., and Knutsson, S., 2013. Sedimentation and new operational curves for Mosul Dam, Iraq. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1456–1466. 相似文献
17.
S. G. H. Philander 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1):219-245
Abstract It is shown that the linear equatorial dynamics of a shallow ocean is characterized by two boundary layers of width γ? L and γL (γ is the Ekman number of the flow, assumed small, and L is a horizontal dimension of the basin). In the γ? layer stress in the bottom Ekman layer is comparable to that in the surface Ekman layer. In the γ layer vertical friction is important throughout the depth of the ocean. Should the Rossby number ? be so large as to invalidate a linear theory (? > γ5/3), then inertial effects become important at a distance ?2/5 L from the equator. The role played in the circulation of the basin by the non-linear equatorial current first studied by Charney (1960) is shown to be similar to that of the γ layer of the linear theory. Though lateral friction is unimportant in a linear model of the flow, shear layers at the equator are found to be a necessary feature of non-linear flow. 相似文献
18.
P.-Y. Diloy A. Robineau J. Lilensten P.-L. Blelly J. Fontanari 《Annales Geophysicae》1996,14(2):191-200
It has been previously demonstrated that a two-ion (O+ and H+) 8-moment time-dependent fluid model was able to reproduce correctly the ionospheric structure in the altitude range probed by the EISCAT-VHF radar. In the present study, the model is extended down to the E-region where molecular ion chemistry (NO+ and O+2, essentially) prevails over transport; EISCAT-UHF observations confirmed previous theoretical predictions that during events of intense E×B induced convection drifts, molecular ions (mainly NO+) predominate over O+ ions up to altitudes of 300 km. In addition to this extension of the model down to the E-region, the ionization and heating resulting from both solar insolation and particle precipitation is now taken into account in a consistent manner through a complete kinetic transport code. The effects of E×B induced convection drifts on the E- and F-region are presented: the balance between O+ and NO+ ions is drastically affected; the electric field acts to deplete the O+ ion concentration. The [NO+]/[O+] transition altitude varies from 190 km to 320 km as the perpendicular electric field increases from 0 to 100 mV m−1. An interesting additional by-product of the model is that it also predicts the presence of a noticeable fraction of N+ ions in the topside ionosphere in good agreement with Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer measurements onboard Dynamic Explorer. 相似文献
19.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(2):183-199
ABSTRACTCurrent estimations of sediment transport at the watershed scale are limited by the difficulty of accurately simulating the sediment transfer along the main stem. The typical approach to simulating watershed sediment transport involves the adoption of hydrologic sediment routing schemes that do not fully capture the contribution and timing of side tributaries, and the inclusion of a simplified channel geometry that does not include its hydraulic feedback. In this paper, we present the results of a coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model of sediment transport applied to a small watershed of Iowa. The model was developed to simulate both the hydrologic network and non-equilibrium sediment transport that occur during a flood. The model results highlight the importance of including side tributaries in order to capture a realistic duration of shear stress that ultimately affects sediment transport. Comparisons with bank erosion measurements indicate that the presented approach is also promising to estimate sediment sources along the main stem. 相似文献
20.
AbstractThis article addresses the critical need for a better quantitative understanding of how water resources from the Hérault River catchment in France have been influenced by climate variability and the increasing pressure of human activity over the last 50 years. A method is proposed for assessing the relative impacts of climate and growing water demand on the decrease in discharge observed at various gauging stations in the periods 1961–1980 and 1981–2010. An annual water balance at the basin scale was calculated first, taking into account precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, water withdrawals and water discharge. Next, the evolution of the seasonal variability in hydroclimatic conditions and water withdrawals was studied. The catchment was then divided into zones according to the main geographical characteristics to investigate the heterogeneity of the climatic and human dynamics. This delimitation took into account the distribution of climate, topography, lithology, land cover and water uses, as well as the availability of discharge series. At the area scale, annual water balances were calculated to understand the internal changes that occurred in the catchment between both past periods. The decrease in runoff can be explained by the decrease in winter precipitation in the upstream areas and by the increase during summer in both water withdrawals and evapotranspiration in the downstream areas, mainly due to the increase in temperature. Thus, water stress increased in summer by 35%. This work is the first step of a larger research project to assess possible future changes in the capacity to satisfy water demand in the Hérault River catchment, using a model that combines hydrological processes and water demand.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献