首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
Radiance data assimilation for operational snow and streamflow forecasting   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Estimation of seasonal snowpack, in mountainous regions, is crucial for accurate streamflow prediction. This paper examines the ability of data assimilation (DA) of remotely sensed microwave radiance data to improve snow water equivalent prediction, and ultimately operational streamflow forecasts. Operational streamflow forecasts in the National Weather Service River Forecast Center (NWSRFC) are produced with a coupled SNOW17 (snow model) and SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model. A comparison of two assimilation techniques, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the particle filter (PF), is made using a coupled SNOW17 and the microwave emission model for layered snow pack (MEMLS) model to assimilate microwave radiance data. Microwave radiance data, in the form of brightness temperature (TB), is gathered from the advanced microwave scanning radiometer-earth observing system (AMSR-E) at the 36.5 GHz channel. SWE prediction is validated in a synthetic experiment. The distribution of snowmelt from an experiment with real data is then used to run the SAC-SMA model. Several scenarios on state or joint state-parameter updating with TB data assimilation to SNOW-17 and SAC-SMA models were analyzed, and the results show potential benefit for operational streamflow forecasting.  相似文献   

2.
The spatial and temporal distribution of snow cover extent (SCE) and snow water equivalent (SWE) play vital roles in the hydrology of northern watersheds. We apply remotely sensed Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data from 1988 to 2007 to explore the relationships between snow distribution and the hydroclimatology of the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB) of Canada and its major sub-basins. The Environment Canada (EC) algorithm is adopted to retrieve the SWE from SSM/I data. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day maximum snow cover extent products (MOD10A2) are used to estimate the different thresholds of retrieved SWE from SSM/I to classify the land cover as snow or no snow for various sub-basins in the MRB. The sub-basins have varying topography and hence different thresholds that range from 10 mm to 30 mm SWE. The accuracy of snow cover mapping based on the combination of several thresholds for the different sub-basins reaches ≈ 90%. The northern basins are found to have stronger linear relationships between the date on which snow cover fraction (SCF) reaches 50% or when SWE reaches 50% and mean air temperatures, than the southern basins. Correlation coefficients between SCF, SWE, and hydroclimatological variables show the new SCF products from SSM/I perform better than SWE from SSM/I to analyze the relationships with the regional hydroclimatology. Statistical models relating SCF and SWE to runoff indicate that the SCF and SWE from EC algorithms are able to predict the discharge in the early snow ablation seasons in northern watersheds.  相似文献   

3.
Improvement of snow depth retrieval for FY3B-MWRI in China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The primary objective of this work is to develop an operational snow depth retrieval algorithm for the FengYun3B Microwave Radiation Imager(FY3B-MWRI)in China.Based on 7-year(2002–2009)observations of brightness temperature by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS(AMSR-E)and snow depth from Chinese meteorological stations,we develop a semi-empirical snow depth retrieval algorithm.When its land cover fraction is larger than 85%,we regard a pixel as pure at the satellite passive microwave remote-sensing scale.A 1-km resolution land use/land cover(LULC)map from the Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,is used to determine fractions of four main land cover types(grass,farmland,bare soil,and forest).Land cover sensitivity snow depth retrieval algorithms are initially developed using AMSR-E brightness temperature data.Each grid-cell snow depth was estimated as the sum of snow depths from each land cover algorithm weighted by percentages of land cover types within each grid cell.Through evaluation of this algorithm using station measurements from 2006,the root mean square error(RMSE)of snow depth retrieval is about 5.6 cm.In forest regions,snow depth is underestimated relative to ground observation,because stem volume and canopy closure are ignored in current algorithms.In addition,comparison between snow cover derived from AMSR-E and FY3B-MWRI with Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)snow cover products(MYD10C1)in January 2010 showed that algorithm accuracy in snow cover monitoring can reach 84%.Finally,we compared snow water equivalence(SWE)derived using FY3B-MWRI with AMSR-E SWE products in the Northern Hemisphere.The results show that AMSR-E overestimated SWE in China,which agrees with other validations.  相似文献   

4.
Land surface albedo plays an important role in the radiation budget and global climate models. NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provide 16‐day albedo product with 500‐m resolution every 8 days (MCD43A3). Some in‐situ albedo measurements were used as the true surface albedo values to validate the MCD43A3 product. As the 16‐day MODIS albedo retrievals do not include snow observations when there is ephemeral snow on the ground surface in a 16‐day period, comparisons between MCD43A3 and 16 day averages of field data do not agree well. Another reason is that the MODIS cannot detect the snow when the area is covered by clouds. The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR‐E) data are not affected by weather conditions and are a good supplement for optical remote sensing in cloudy weather. When the surface is covered by ephemeral snow, the AMSR‐E data can be used as the additional information to retrieve the snow albedo. In this study, we developed an improved method by using the MODIS products and the AMSR‐E snow water equivalent (SWE) product to improve the MCD43A3 short‐time snow‐covered albedo estimation. The MODIS daily snow products MOD10A1 and MYD10A1 both provide snow and cloud information from observations. In our study region, we updated the MODIS daily snow product by combining MOD10A1 and MYD10A1. Then, the product was combined with the AMSR‐E SWE product to generate new daily snow‐cover and SWE products at a spatial resolution of 500 m. New SWE datasets were integrated into the Noah Land Surface Model snow model to calculate the albedo above a snow surface, and these values were then utilized to improve the MODIS 16‐day albedo product. After comparison of the results with in‐situ albedo measurements, we found that the new corrected 16‐day albedo can show the albedo changes during the short snowfall season. For example, from January 25 to March 14, 2007 at the BJ site, the albedo retrieved from snow‐free observations does not indicate the albedo changes affected by snow; the improved albedo conforms well to the in‐situ measurements. The correlation coefficient of the original MODIS albedo and the in‐situ albedo is 0.42 during the ephemeral snow season, but the correlation coefficient of the improved MODIS albedo and the in‐situ albedo is 0.64. It is concluded that the new method is capable of capturing the snow information from AMSR‐E SWE to improve the short‐time snow‐covered albedo estimation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Describing the spatial variability of heterogeneous snowpacks at a watershed or mountain‐front scale is important for improvements in large‐scale snowmelt modelling. Snowmelt depletion curves, which relate fractional decreases in snow‐covered area (SCA) against normalized decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE), are a common approach to scale‐up snowmelt models. Unfortunately, the kinds of ground‐based observations that are used to develop depletion curves are expensive to gather and impractical for large areas. We describe an approach incorporating remotely sensed fractional SCA (FSCA) data with coinciding daily snowmelt SWE outputs during ablation to quantify the shape of a depletion curve. We joined melt estimates from the Utah Energy Balance Snow Accumulation and Melt Model (UEB) with FSCA data calculated from a normalized difference snow index snow algorithm using NASA's moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) visible (0·545–0·565 µm) and shortwave infrared (1·628–1·652 µm) reflectance data. We tested the approach at three 500 m2 study sites, one in central Idaho and the other two on the North Slope in the Alaskan arctic. The UEB‐MODIS‐derived depletion curves were evaluated against depletion curves derived from ground‐based snow surveys. Comparisons showed strong agreement between the independent estimates. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Time series of fractional snow covered area (SCA) estimates from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data were combined with a spatially distributed snowmelt model to reconstruct snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Rio Grande headwaters (3419 km2). In this reconstruction approach, modeled snowmelt over each pixel is integrated during the period of satellite-observed snow cover to estimate SWE. Due to underestimates in snow cover detection, maximum basin-wide mean SWE using MODIS and AVHRR were, respectively, 45% and 68% lower than SWE estimates obtained using ETM+ data. The mean absolute error (MAE) of SWE estimated at 100-m resolution using ETM+ data was 23% relative to observed SWE from intensive field campaigns. Model performance deteriorated when MODIS (MAE = 50%) and AVHRR (MAE = 89%) SCA data were used. Relative to differences in the SCA products, model output was less sensitive to spatial resolution (MAE = 39% and 73% for ETM+ and MODIS simulations run at 1 km resolution, respectively), indicating that SWE reconstructions at the scale of MODIS acquisitions may be tractable provided the SCA product is improved. When considering tradeoffs between spatial and temporal resolution of different sensors, our results indicate that higher spatial resolution products such as ETM+ remain more accurate despite the lower frequency of acquisition. This motivates continued efforts to improve MODIS snow cover products.  相似文献   

7.
Model simulation and in situ observations are often used to research water and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems, but each of these methods has its own advantages and limitations. Combining these two methods could improve the accuracy of quantifying the dynamics of the water and carbon fluxes of an ecosystem. Data assimilation is an effective means of integrating modeling with in situ observation. In this study, the ensemble Kalman filter(En KF) and the unscented Kalman filter(UKF) algorithms were used to assimilate remotely sensed leaf area index(LAI) data with the Biome-BGC model to simulate water and carbon fluxes at the Harvard Forest Environmental Monitoring Site(EMS) and the Dinghushan site. After MODIS LAI data from 2000–2004 were assimilated into the improved Biome-BGC model using the En KF algorithm at the Harvard Forest site, the R2 between the simulated and observed results for NEE and evapotranspiration increased by 7.8% and 4.7%, respectively. In addition, the sum of the absolute error(SAE) and the root mean square error(RMSE) of NEE decreased by an average of 21.9% and 26.3%, and the SAE and RMSE of evapotranspiration decreased by 24.5% and 25.5%, respectively. MODIS LAI data of 2003 were assimilated into the Biome-BGC model for the Dinghushan site, and the R2 values between the simulated and observed results for NEE and evapotranspiration were increased by 6.7% and 17.3%, respectively. In addition, the SAE values of NEE and ET were decreased by 11.3% and 30.7%, respectively, and the RMSE values of NEE and ET decreased by 10.1% and 30.9%, respectively. These results demonstrate that the accuracy of carbon and water flux simulations can be effectively improved when remotely sensed LAI data are properly integrated with ecosystem models through a data assimilation approach.  相似文献   

8.
Kyuhyun Byun  Minha Choi 《水文研究》2014,28(7):3173-3184
Accurate estimation of snow water equivalent (SWE) has been significantly recognized to improve management and analyses of water resource in specific regions. Although several studies have focused on developing SWE values based on remotely sensed brightness temperatures obtained by microwave sensor systems, it is known that there are still a number of uncertainties in SWE values retrieved from microwave radiometers. Therefore, further research for improving remotely sensed SWE values including global validation should be conducted in unexplored regions such as Northeast Asia. In this regard, we evaluated SWE through comparison of values produced by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR‐E) from December 2002 to February 2011 with in situ SWE values converted from snow‐depth observation data from four regions in the South Korea. The results from three areas showed similarities which indicated that the AMSR‐E SWE values were overestimated when compared with in situ SWE values, and their Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) by month were relatively small (1.1 to 6.5 mm). Contrariwise, the AMSR‐E SWE values of one area were significantly underestimated when compared with in situ SWE values and the MAE were much greater (4.9 to 35.2 mm). These results were closely related to AMSR‐E algorithm‐related error sources, which we analyzed with respect to topographic characteristics and snow properties. In particular, we found that snow density data used in the AMSR‐E SWE algorithm should be based on reliable in situ data as the current AMSR‐E SWE algorithm cannot reflect the spatio‐temporal variability of snow density values. Additionally, we derived better results considering saturation effect of AMSR‐E SWE. Despite the demise of AMSR‐E, this study's analysis is significant for providing a baseline for the new sensor and suggests parameters important for obtaining more reliable SWE. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Snowpack water equivalent (SWE) is a key variable for water resource management in snow-dominated catchments. While it is not feasible to quantify SWE at the catchment scale using either field surveys or remotely sensed data, technologies such as airborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging) support the mapping of snow depth at scales relevant to operational water management. To convert snow depth to water equivalent, models have been developed to predict SWE or snowpack density based on snow depth and additional predictor variables. This study builds upon previous models that relate snowpack density to snow depth by including additional predictor variables to account for (1) long-term climatologies that describe the prevailing conditions influencing regional snowpack properties, and (2) the effect of intra- and inter-year variability in meteorological conditions on densification through a cumulative degree-day index derived from North American Regional Reanalysis products. A non-linear model was fit to 114 506 snow survey measurements spanning 41 years from 1166 snow courses across western North America. Under spatial cross-validation, the predicted densities had a root-mean-square error of 47.1 kg m−3, a mean bias of −0.039 kg m−3, and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.70. The model developed in this study had similar overall performance compared to a similar regression-based model reported in the literature, but had reduced seasonal biases. When applied to predict SWE from simulated depths with random errors consistent with those obtained from LiDAR or Structure-from-Motion, 50% of the SWE estimates for April and May fell within −45 to 49 mm of the observed SWE, representing prediction errors of −15% to 20%.  相似文献   

10.
Snow accumulation and ablation rule the temporal dynamics of water availability in mountain areas and cold regions. In these environments, the evaluation of the snow water amount is a key issue. The spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) over a mountain basin at the end of the snow accumulation season is estimated using a minimal statistical model (SWE‐SEM). This uses systematic observations such as ground measurements collected at snow gauges and snow‐covered area (SCA) data retrieved by remote sensors, here MODIS. Firstly, SWE‐SEM calculates local SWE estimates at snow gauges, then the spatial distribution of SWE over a certain area using an interpolation method; linear regressions of the first two order moments of SWE with altitude. The interpolation has been made by both confining and unconfining the spatial domain by SCA. SWE‐SEM is applied to the Mallero basin (northern Italy) for calculating the snow water equivalent at the end of the winter season for 6 years (2001–2007). For 2007, SWE‐SEM estimates are validated through fieldwork measurements collected during an ‘ad hoc’ campaign on March 31, 2007. Snow‐surveyed measurements are used to check SCA, snow density and SWE estimates. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Snow is Earth's most climatically sensitive land cover type. Traditional snow metrics may not be able to adequately capture the changing nature of snow cover. For example, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has been an effective index for streamflow forecasting, but it cannot express the effects of midwinter melt events, now expected in warming snow climates, nor can we assume that station-based measurements will be representative of snow conditions in future decades. Remote sensing and climate model data provide capacity for a suite of multi-use snow metrics from local to global scales. Such indicators need to be simple enough to “tell the story” of snowpack changes over space and time, but not overly simplistic or overly complicated in their interpretation. We describe a suite of spatially explicit, multi-temporal snow metrics based on global satellite data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and downscaled climate model output for the U.S. We describe and provide examples for Snow Cover Frequency (SCF), Snow Disappearance Date (SDD), At-Risk Snow (ARS), and Frequency of a Warm Winter (FWW). Using these retrospective and prospective snow metrics, we assess the current and future snow-related conditions in three hydroclimatically different U.S. watersheds: the Truckee, Colorado Headwaters, and Upper Connecticut. In the two western U.S. watersheds, SCF and SDD show greater sensitivity to annual differences in snow cover compared with data from the ground-based Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) network. The eastern U.S. watershed does not have a ground-based network of data, so these MODIS-derived metrics provide uniquely valuable snow information. The ARS and FWW metrics show that the Truckee Watershed is highly vulnerable to conversion from snowfall to rainfall (ARS) and midwinter melt events (FWW) throughout the seasonal snow zone. In comparison, the Colorado Headwaters and Upper Connecticut Watersheds are colder and much less vulnerable through mid- and late-century.  相似文献   

12.
Remote sensing is an important source of snow‐cover extent for input into the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) and other snowmelt models. Since February 2000, daily global snow‐cover maps have been produced from data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The usefulness of this snow‐cover product for streamflow prediction is assessed by comparing SRM simulated streamflow using the MODIS snow‐cover product with streamflow simulated using snow maps from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). Simulations were conducted for two tributary watersheds of the Upper Rio Grande basin during the 2001 snowmelt season using representative SRM parameter values. Snow depletion curves developed from MODIS and NOHRSC snow maps were generally comparable in both watersheds: satisfactory streamflow simulations were obtained using both snow‐cover products in larger watershed (volume difference: MODIS, 2·6%; NOHRSC, 14·0%) and less satisfactory streamflow simulations in smaller watershed (volume difference: MODIS, −33·1%; NOHRSC, −18·6%). The snow water equivalent (SWE) on 1 April in the third zone of each basin was computed using the modified depletion curve produced by the SRM and was compared with in situ SWE measured at Snowpack Telemetry sites located in the third zone of each basin. The SRM‐calculated SWEs using both snow products agree with the measured SWEs in both watersheds. Based on these results, the MODIS snow‐cover product appears to be of sufficient quality for streamflow prediction using the SRM in the snowmelt‐dominated basins. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Assimilation of SLA and SST data into an OGCM for the Indian Ocean   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
 Remotely sensed observations of sea-level anomaly and sea-surface temperature have been assimilated into an implementation of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) for the Indian Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The system has been applied in a hindcast validation experiment to examine the properties of the assimilation scheme when used with a full ocean general circulation model and real observations. This work is considered as a first step towards an operational ocean monitoring and forecasting system for the Indian Ocean. The assimilation of real data has demonstrated that the sequential EnKF can efficiently control the model evolution in time. The use of data assimilation requires a significant amount of additional processing and computational resources. However, we have tried to justify the cost of using a sophisticated assimilation scheme by demonstrating strong regional and temporal dependencies of the covariance statistics, which include highly anisotropic and flow-dependent correlation functions. In particular, we observed a marked difference between error statistics in the equatorial region and at off-equatorial latitudes. We have also demonstrated how the assimilation of SLA and SST improves the model fields with respect to real observations. Independent in situ temperature profiles have been used to examine the impact of assimilating the remotely sensed observations. These intercomparisons have shown that the model temperature and salinity fields better resemble in situ observations in the assimilation experiment than in a model free-run case. On the other hand, it is also expected that assimilation of in situ profiles is needed to properly control the deep ocean circulation. Received: 8 January 2002 / Accepted: 8 April 2002  相似文献   

14.
Streamflow forecasting methods are moving towards probabilistic approaches that quantify the uncertainty associated with the various sources of error in the forecasting process. Multi-model averaging methods which try to address modeling deficiencies by considering multiple models are gaining much popularity. We have applied the Bayesian Model Averaging method to an ensemble of twelve snow models that vary in their heat and melt algorithms, parameterization, and/or albedo estimation method. Three of the models use the temperature-based heat and melt routines of the SNOW17 snow accumulation and ablation model. Nine models use heat and melt routines that are based on a simplified energy balance approach, and are varied by using three different albedo estimation schemes. Finally, different parameter sets were identified through automatic calibration with three objective functions. All models use the snow accumulation, liquid water transport, and ground surface heat exchange processes of the SNOW17. The resulting twelve snow models were combined using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The individual models, BMA predictive mean, and BMA predictive variance were evaluated for six SNOTEL sites in the western U.S. The models performed best and the BMA variance was lowest at the colder sites with high winter precipitation and little mid-winter melting. An individual snow model would often outperform the BMA predictive mean. However, observed snow water equivalent (SWE) was captured within the 95% confidence intervals of the BMA variance on average 80% of the time at all sites. Results are promising that consideration of multiple snow structures would provide useful uncertainty information for probabilistic hydrologic prediction.  相似文献   

15.
The retrieval of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) from remote sensing satellites continues to be a very challenging problem. In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of a new SWE product derived from the blending of a passive microwave SWE product based on the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) with a multi‐sensor snow cover extent product based on the Interactive Multi‐sensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). The microwave measurements have the ability to penetrate the snow pack, and thus, the retrieval of SWE is best accomplished using the AMSU. On the other hand, the IMS maps snow cover more reliably due to the use of multiple satellite and ground observations. The evolution of global snow cover from the blended, the AMSU and the IMS products was examined during the 2006 snow season. Despite the overall good inter‐product agreement, it was shown that the retrievals of snow cover extent in the blended product are improved when using IMS, with implications for improved microwave retrievals of SWE. In a separate investigation, the skill of the microwave SWE product was also examined for its ability to correctly estimate SWE globally and regionally. Qualitative evaluation of global SWE retrievals suggested dependence on land surface temperature: the lower the temperature, the higher the SWE retrieved. This temperature bias was attributed in part to temperature effects on those snow properties that impact microwave response. Therefore, algorithm modifications are needed with more dynamical adjustments to account for changing snow cover. Quantitative evaluation over Slovakia in central Europe, for a limited period in 2006, showed reasonably good performance for SWE less than 100 mm. Sensitivity to deeper snow decreased significantly. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flown on board the Terra Earth Observing System (EOS) platform launched in December 1999, produces a snow‐covered area (SCA) product. This product is expected to be of better quality than SCA products based on operational satellites (notably GOES and AVHRR), due both to improved spectral resolution and higher spatial resolution of the MODIS instrument. The gridded MODIS SCA product was compared with the SCA product produced and distributed by the National Weather Service National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) for 46 selected days over the Columbia River basin and 32 days over the Missouri River basin during winter and spring of 2000–01. Snow presence or absence was inferred from ground observations of snow depth at 1330 stations in the Missouri River basin and 762 stations in the Columbia River basin, and was compared with the presence/absence classification for the corresponding pixels in the MODIS and NOHRSC SCA products. On average, the MODIS SCA images classified fewer pixels as cloud than NOHRSC, the effect of which was that 15% more of the Columbia basin area could be classified as to presence–absence of snow, while overall there was a statistically insignificant difference over the Missouri basin. Of the pixels classified as cloud free, MODIS misclassified 4% and 5% fewer overall (for the Columbia and Missouri basins respectively) than did the NOHRSC product. When segregated by vegetation cover, forested areas had the greatest differences in fraction of cloud cover reported by the two SCA products, with MODIS classifying 13% and 17% less of the images as cloud for the Missouri and Columbia basins respectively. These differences are particularly important in the Columbia River basin, 39% of which is forested. The ability of MODIS to classify significantly greater amounts of snow in the presence of cloud in more topographically complex, forested, and snow‐dominated areas of these two basins provides valuable information for hydrologic prediction. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Snow water equivalent prediction using Bayesian data assimilation methods   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Using the U.S. National Weather Service’s SNOW-17 model, this study compares common sequential data assimilation methods, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), and four variants of the particle filter (PF), to predict seasonal snow water equivalent (SWE) within a small watershed near Lake Tahoe, California. In addition to SWE estimation, the various data assimilation methods are used to estimate five of the most sensitive parameters of SNOW-17 by allowing them to evolve with the dynamical system. Unlike Kalman filters, particle filters do not require Gaussian assumptions for the posterior distribution of the state variables. However, the likelihood function used to scale particle weights is often assumed to be Gaussian. This study evaluates the use of an empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) based on the Kaplan–Meier survival probability method to compute particle weights. These weights are then used in different particle filter resampling schemes. Detailed analyses are conducted for synthetic and real data assimilation and an assessment of the procedures is made. The results suggest that the particle filter, especially the empirical likelihood variant, is superior to the ensemble Kalman filter based methods for predicting model states, as well as model parameters.  相似文献   

18.
As demand for water continues to escalate in the western Unites States, so does the need for accurate monitoring of the snowpack in mountainous areas. In this study, we describe a simple methodology for generating gridded‐estimates of snow water equivalency (SWE) using both surface observations of SWE and remotely sensed estimates of snow‐covered area (SCA). Multiple regression was used to quantify the relationship between physiographic variables (elevation, slope, aspect, clear‐sky solar radiation, etc.) and SWE as measured at a number of sites in a mountainous basin in south‐central Idaho (Big Wood River Basin). The elevation of the snowline, obtained from the SCA estimates, was used to constrain the predicted SWE values. The results from the analysis are encouraging and compare well to those found in previous studies, which often utilized more sophisticated spatial interpolation techniques. Cross‐validation results indicate that the spatial interpolation method produces accurate SWE estimates [mean R2 = 0·82, mean mean absolute error (MAE) = 4·34 cm, mean root mean squared error (RMSE) = 5·29 cm]. The basin examined in this study is typical of many mid‐elevation mountainous basins throughout the western United States, in terms of the distribution of topographic variables, as well as the number and characteristics of sites at which the necessary ground data are available. Thus, there is high potential for this methodology to be successfully applied to other mountainous basins. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The temporal and spatial continuity of spatially distributed estimates of snow‐covered area (SCA) are limited by the availability of cloud‐free satellite imagery; this also affects spatial estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE), as SCA can be used to define the extent of snow telemetry (SNOTEL) point SWE interpolation. In order to extend the continuity of these estimates in time and space to areas beneath the cloud cover, gridded temperature data were used to define the spatial domain of SWE interpolation in the Salt–Verde watershed of Arizona. Gridded positive accumulated degree‐days (ADD) and binary SCA (derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)) were used to define a threshold ADD to define the area of snow cover. The optimized threshold ADD increased during snow accumulation periods, reaching a peak at maximum snow extent. The threshold then decreased dramatically during the first time period after peak snow extent owing to the low amount of energy required to melt the thin snow cover at lower elevations. The area having snow cover at this later time was then used to define the area for which SWE interpolation was done. The area simulated to have snow was compared with observed SCA from AVHRR to assess the simulated snow map accuracy. During periods without precipitation, the average commission and omission errors of the optimal technique were 7% and 11% respectively, with a map accuracy of 82%. Average map accuracy decreased to 75% during storm periods, with commission and omission errors equal to 11% and 12% respectively. The analysis shows that temperature data can be used to help estimate the snow extent beneath clouds and therefore improve the spatial and temporal continuity of SCA and SWE products. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
AMSR-E and MODIS are two EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments on board the Aqua satellite. A regression analysis between the brightness of all AMSR-E bands and the MODIS land surface tem-perature product indicated that the 89 GHz vertical polarization is the best single band to retrieve land surface temperature. According to simulation analysis with AIEM,the difference of different frequen-cies can eliminate the influence of water in soil and atmosphere,and also the surface roughness partly. The analysis results indicate that the radiation mechanism of surface covered snow is different from others. In order to retrieve land surface temperature more accurately,the land surface should be at least classified into three types:water covered surface,snow covered surface,and non-water and non-snow covered land surface. In order to improve the practicality and accuracy of the algorithm,we built different equations for different ranges of temperature. The average land surface temperature er-ror is about 2―3℃ relative to the MODIS LST product.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号