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利用祁连山中东段活动断裂的定量参数和“时间相依”的概率模型,对该地区断裂在未来一定时段内的发震概率进行了分析,认为该地区老虎山－毛毛山断裂的毛毛山段和金强河段的发震概率较高,其他断裂的发震概率很低;未来10年和20年,毛毛山段的发震概率分别为157．6％和29．03％,金强河段的发震概率分别为15．33％和28．41％,2段联合发生7．5级地震的概率分别为28．67％和49．19％,未来50年2段联合发生7．5级地震的概率为81．79％,通过对兰州地区1125年7．0级地震破烈带遗迹的考察,得出马衔山断裂未来50年发生Ms≥7.0地震的概率为19．87％。 相似文献
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在地质地貌调查基础上 ,对灵武断裂进行了古地震槽探揭露。结果显示 ,距今 2 8ka以来 ,灵武断裂上发生过 5期地表破裂型地震事件 ,时间大约分别在距今 ( 2 7 15± 0 778) ,2 0 0 ,( 13 0 7± 0 0 6) ,( 10 586± 0 0 5)和 6 0ka。根据 5期古地震事件的综合对比分析 ,发现断裂有分段组合破裂的特征 ,由此并结合槽探揭示的古地震同震位移等估计了古地震的震级 相似文献
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利用1980年1月-2008年12月宁夏地震台网记录的中小地震事件直达波到时数据,采用单台多震和达法,对吴忠-灵武地区该时段内MS ≥ 5.0地震发生前波速比变化进行回溯性分析,并对该区未来短期内震情趋势进行研判,所得结果表明：①吴忠-灵武地区MS ≥ 5.0地震前波速比存在正常→降低→上升(恢复)→发震的异常变化过程;②研究区台站出现波速比异常,其空间分布对发震位置具有一定指示意义,即发震位置可能位于波速比下降台站或存在异常台站所连线的多边形边缘或内部;③据近期扫描结果,海原地震台波速比异常较显著,需密切关注宁夏南部及邻区地球物理观测资料的变化。 相似文献
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西秦岭北缘断裂带特征地震平均复发间隔的确定和地震危险性评价 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9
时间相依的地震危险性概率评估方法是最近10a来逐渐发展起来的，是一种将已获得的定量地质资料运用于活动断裂中—长期地震潜势概率评估的方法，从而使得在缺乏历史记载或仪器记录资料，但已获得断层平均滑动速率、同震位错、古地震年代序列等资料的活动断裂段上评估未来的发震概率成为可能。在定量计算活动断裂未来地震危险性的过程中，作为输入参数之一的特征地震平均复发间隔是一个至关重要的参数，它的确定将直接影响到概率计算的结果。对研究断裂上已获得的历史地震资料(H)、地质资料(G)和古地震资料(P)，笔采用了时间可预报(T)和准周期(Q)两种模式分别计算其平均复发间隔，比单一的只假定一种复发模式计算更具有完善性和可靠性。在叙述该方法的同时，以西秦岭北缘断裂为例，详细阐述了该断裂上特征地震平均复发间隔的确定，并在此基础上对西秦岭北缘断裂未来地震潜势作了定量评估。 相似文献
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1994年9月16日台湾浅滩7.3级地震发震构造的讨论 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
从台湾海峡与台湾浅滩的地貌特征、区域构造格局、海峡盆地形成历史、深部构造与断裂构造、震源机制解以及地震活动等方面论述了台湾浅滩７．３级地震的发震构造,认为北东东向澎湖－北港隆起南侧断裂（义竹断裂）是该地震的发震构造。 相似文献
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岫岩—海城5.6级地震地震地质背景及其发震构造 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
讨论了１９９９年１１月２９日岫岩－海城５．６级地震的地震地质背景,并依据地震震中分布、等震线形态、地震与断裂的关系等分析了此次地震的发震构造。结果表明,官次地震仍然是海城地震区内的地震活动,其发震构造是ＮＷ向海城河断裂。 相似文献
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1 四川大地震概况 2008年5月12日西藏高原和四川盆地交界处发生大地震,从中国中部到西部的广阔地区遭到严重灾害.据中国政府发表的信息,到7月1日为止,已有69 195人死亡,18 404人下落不明,374 177人受伤,受灾总数达4 600万人.这次中国内陆发生的四川大地震,因震源在汶川而被正式命名为汶川地震. 相似文献
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山区滑坡的稳定性一直是倍受关注的一个重要安全问题。本文讨论了滑坡位移传统监测方法的缺陷和新型的基于GPS的自动监测技术所具有的独特优势,介绍了适用于山区公路滑坡位移监测的高精度的GPS技术。实践表明,采用GPS技术进行山区滑坡的稳定性监测,具有可操作性更强、精度更高、不受气候条件约束以及高度自动化等优点,能够为预测边坡可能出现失稳破坏的部位和变形破坏时间提供更可靠的监测资料,因而GPS监测技术值得在山区滑坡的变形监测领域中推广使用。 相似文献
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通常情况下花岗岩岩性稳定、岩石完整,是隧道工程的理想围岩.我国沿海地区花岗岩覆盖普遍,但因气候炎热,秋夏两季多台风暴雨,降雨量丰富,化学风化作用剧烈,使得花岗岩差异风化严重.风化作用不仅仅发生在近地表,而且深切入地下达数百米,常穿过隧道洞身.本文以新建厦门至深圳高速铁路(简称厦深高铁)某隧道工程勘察为例,采用探测深度大、工作方便的天然场源高频大地电磁测深法(HMT),探测花岗岩差异风化情况.四条相邻测线综合探测结果表明:根据HMT法二维反演剖面图中电阻率的差异,成功解释了已开挖段的施工塌陷范围,并预测了将要开挖段的强风化弱地质结构分布范围;通过垂向相对低阻异常特征定量推断了岩体风化带向下延伸情况,为隧道安全施工提供了科学指导. 相似文献
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The analysis of hydrogeological problems arising in bog watering by methods enabling the depth to groundwater table to be controlled was used to develop a method for estimating the efficiency of such control when data for directly solving groundwater flow problems are lacking. The effect of nonmonotone dependence of the rate of groundwater level rise on the hydraulic conductivity of peat underlain by high-permeability sand rocks is described. This effect is shown to be significant in assessing the potentialities of the operational control of groundwater level in bog massifs with this type of geological structure. 相似文献
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Nonlinearity in the response of soils in the 1995 Kobe earthquake in vertical components of records 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Strong motion records provided by seismic vertical arrays allow estimation of stress–strain relations in soils at depths from the surface to the location of the deepest device. As an example, time-dependent nonlinear soil behavior was estimated in vertical components of records obtained in the epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Degradation of the rigidity of soils in the strong motion was observed. The constructed nonlinear models of the soil behavior were used for estimating the nonlinear parts in the ground response by the nonlinear system identification technique. Nonlinear parts in the ground response were found to be as high as 50% at 2 km from the fault and 10% at 6–15 km from the fault plane. Odd types of nonlinearity, such as cubic, the fifth, seventh, etc. order, were found to be typical for soils, whereas, nonlinearities of even types are usually weak, but increase in liquefied soils. 相似文献
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Concentrations of 21 trace elements were determined in muscle of beluga (Huso huso), Persian sturgeon (Acipenser persicus), Russian sturgeon (Acipenser gueldenstaedtii), ship sturgeon (Acipenser nudiventris) and stellate sturgeon (Acipenser stellatus) collected from coastal regions of Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, surrounding the Caspian Sea during 2000-2001. Concentrations of Mn, Co, Cu, Mo, Sn, Hg, Pb and Bi in the muscle were apparently different among the five species of sturgeons. Especially, beluga showed the highest concentrations of Hg, Pb and Mn in all the five species. In addition, more than half of the individuals of beluga exceeded the guideline level (0.3 microg/g wet wt.) of Hg for food in UK. However, V, Cr, Zn, Ga, Rb, Sr and Ba concentrations were similar among five sturgeons. Growth-dependent increase in Hg in beluga, Cu in Persian sturgeon, and Zn in Russian sturgeon were observed, whereas V, Mn, Co, Cu, Ga, Sr, Mo, Sn, Hg and Bi concentrations in Persian sturgeon, Pb in ship sturgeon, and Cr, Mn, and Rb in stellate sturgeon were negatively correlated with body length. All species of sturgeon in Azerbaijan showed the highest concentration of Sr and the lowest concentration of Rb, while the five sturgeons from Iran showed opposite trends. Concentration of V, which is present in oil, in sturgeons in the Caspian Sea was considerably lower than that of fish from Kuwait, but was comparable to that of Cambodia and the Gulf and Gulf of Oman. To our knowledge, this study provides the first extensive data on multielemental accumulation in sturgeons of the Caspian Sea. 相似文献
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The possibility of forming of higher diatomic biomasses in winter in the waters of the Sea of Okhotsk water and Aniva Bay is considered. Data of field observations, satellite information, and a mathematical model describing the transformations of compounds of biogenic elements (C, Si, N, and P) are used for this purpose. Field observations confirmed that active microalgae reproduction takes place in the ice of the Sea of Okhotsk. Determinations of their species composition were carried out. The active development of diatoms in winter was confirmed by the analysis of satellite observations during the examination of chlorophyll “a” dynamics on the sea surface. Mathematical modeling yielded quantitative data to characterize the development of diatoms in winter and within the year and interrelated variations in nutrient concentrations and the biomass of planktonic community in Aniva Bay. This is the first analysis of this type for the Sea of Okhotsk. 相似文献