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1.
本文对川滇地区1988年以来30次Ms≥5.0级地震前ML≥3.0级地震活动进行了分析。结果认为,中、强地震前ML≥3.0级地震活动的强度和频度曲线有一个非线性趋势增强的变化过程,曲线上升的非线性增强对整体区域一定时间段内有震、后续地震和无震的判断给出了震前地震活动的中、短期异常信息。 相似文献
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通过对近场以及远震数据的分析,估算了2010年中国青海地震（MW6.9）的破裂速度。破裂起始模型的计算结果与YUS台站实测近场地震图的比较显示出约为5.0km/s的快速超剪切破裂传播。根据使用包络线反褶积法和经验格林函数事件的远震分析,在震中东南6.5km和41.8km的地方鉴别出2个高频脉冲,说明为2个子事件。高频脉冲事件的地点和时间也显示出4.7～5.8km/s的超剪切破裂速度。超剪切破裂速度可能致使破裂向玉树镇扩展时产生了严重破坏。 相似文献
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最新研究发现,发生在断层带深部的小地震和极小颤动地震都是由地表的慢地震引起的。这种慢地震可能也是可发生在俯冲带的震源比较浅、震级高、破坏力强的地震的前兆,如2004年12月发生的苏门答腊地震。美国地质调查局的地震学家B.Ellsworth说,“2002年,日本地震学家K.Obara首次发现的“非火山”微弱信号是半个世纪来被发现的第一个新的地震波震源”。颤动地震与我们常见的普通地震的信号不同,它没有包含地震学家确定地震震中的P波和S波。这种信号可能持续的时间较长,与一般地震只有几秒钟的信号相比较,它可以持续15min。一系列1级或2级的… 相似文献
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Three studies of site amplification factors, based on the recorded aftershocks, and one study based on strong motion data, are compared one with another and with the observed distribution of damage from the Northridge, CA, earthquake of 17 January 1994 (ML=6.4). In the epicentral area, when the peak ground velocities are larger than vm≈15 cm/s, nonlinear response of soil begins to distort the amplification factors determined from small amplitude (linear) wave motion. Moving into the area of near-field and strong ground motion (vm>30 cm/s), the site response becomes progressively more affected by the nonlinear soil response. Based on the published results, it is concluded that site amplification factors determined from small amplitude waves (aftershocks, small earthquakes, coda waves) and their transfer-function representation may be useful for small and distant earthquake motions, where soils and structures respond to earthquake waves in a linear manner. However in San Fernando Valley, during the Northridge earthquake, the observed distribution of damage did not correlate with site amplification determined from spectra of recorded weak motions. Mapping geographical distribution of site amplification using other than very strong motion data, therefore appears to be of little use for seismic hazard analyses. 相似文献
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Variations of gravity before and after the Haicheng earthquake, 1975, and the Tangshan earthquake, 1976 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1979,18(4):330-338
Before and after the Haicheng earthquake of magnitude 7.3 which occurred on February 4, 1975, five repeated gravimeter surveys were carried out, three before and two after the earthquake, along a northwest-southeast profile of about 250 km in length not far on the west of the epicenter. The mean-square error of the measurements of the gravity differences between two consecutive points on the profile is less than 40 μGal. From June, 1972 to May, 1973, within a period of about one year, the results of three surveys indicated a clear decrease of the gravity values at points on the southeastern portion of the profile, amounting to about 352 μGal. After the earthquake, the fourth survey, which was carried out in March, 1975, revealed that the gravity values had recovered to the levels of the first survey and continued to increase as was shown by a fifth survey carried out in July of the same year.Variations of gravity were also observed before and after the Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8 which occurred on July 28, 1976, but in this case, gravity was increasing instead of decreasing before the earthquake. Along an east-west profile of about 270 km in length and not far on the north of the epicenter, two gravity surveys were made before and two after the earthquake. The results showed that after the main shock, the gravity values of the whole profile, especially at those points closer to Tangshan, tended to return gradually to their values of the first survey before the earthquake.From these results, there seems to be a close relationship between these gravity variations and the occurrences of earthquakes. Based on results of repeated levelling work done in these regions, the estimated amount of gravity change caused by the change of elevation of the ground surface is far too small to account for the observed value. Therefore we speculate that some large earthquakes might be associated with some sort of mass transfer under ground, within the crust or in the upper mantle. This transfer would cause a large part of the gravity variation observed. We have made a theoretical analysis of this effect and attempted to obtain some estimate of the magnitude of this mass transfer, even though we are not yet clear about the physics of it. 相似文献
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Yaolin Shi Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences 《地震学报(英文版)》2009,(6):575-578
There are 13 papers in this special issue on stress field,crustal deformation and seismicity.The great Wenchuan earthquake is a grievous disaster,but Chinese scientists are trying to learn more from the event in order to understand better the physics of earthquakes for 相似文献
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以宁蒗县1988年MS 5.5、2012年MS 5.7以及2022年MS 5.5地震为研究对象,以宁蒗地震灾区当年相关震害统计资料为基础,从人员伤亡、房屋破坏、经济损失3个主要方面,对3次地震震害特征进行对比分析。结果表明： 2012年MS 5.7地震造成的人员伤亡最为严重,此外震区房屋结构不断丰富,抗震性能不断增强,但土木结构房屋抗震性能较差,震灾经济损失逐渐减小,但民房经济损失占比逐年升高。根据分析以上结果提出“提高民众防震减灾意识,增强房屋抗震性能,积极响应政策号召”等建议和措施,为灾后重建以及城市规划发展提供借鉴。 相似文献
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Jayant Nath Tripathi 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(1):119-130
Kutch region of Gujrat is one of the most seismic prone regions of India. Recently, it has been rocked by a large earthquake (M
w
= 7.7) on January 26, 2001. The probabilities of occurrence of large earthquake (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) in a specified interval of time for different elapsed times have been estimated on the basis of observed time-intervals between the large earthquakes (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) using three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. The earthquakes of magnitude ≥5.0 covering about 180 years have been used for this analysis. However, the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been applied for computation of earthquake hazard parameters. The mean interval of occurrence of earthquakes and standard deviation are estimated as 20.18 and 8.40 years for M≥5.0 and 36.32 and 12.49 years, for M≥6.0, respectively, for this region. For the earthquakes M≥5.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 27 years for Lognormal and Gamma models and about 28 years for Weibull model while it reaches 0.9 after about 32 years for all the models. However, for the earthquakes M≥6.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 47 years for all the models while it reaches 0.9 after about 53, 54 and 55 years for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal model, respectively. The conditional probability also reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 for the time period of 28 to 40 years and 50 to 60 years for M≥5.0 and M≥6.0, respectively, for all the models. The probability of occurrence of an earthquake is very high between 28 to 42 years for the magnitudes ≥5.0 and between 47 to 55 years for the magnitudes ≥6.0, respectively, past from the last earthquake (2001). 相似文献
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烈度与余震分布显示2014年云南鲁甸MW6.1(MS6.5)地震的发震构造较复杂.为深入了解鲁甸地震的发震断层与破裂特征,本文考虑了单一断层破裂和共轭断层破裂的情况,对震中距250km范围内的近震资料(宽频带资料和强震资料)和远震体波资料进行了反演,得到了鲁甸地震的破裂过程,探讨了滑动分布与余震分布之间的关系.根据反演得到的滑动分布、震源时间函数和波形拟合,认为鲁甸地震是一次在北西向主压应力与北东向主张应力的统一应力场下发生的两条共轭断层先后破裂的一次复杂地震事件.在破裂开始后0~2s,破裂主要发生在ENE—WSW向(近东西向)的断层上,随后NNW—SSE向(近南北向)断层开始破裂,释放了大部分的地震矩.由于近南北向断层南段(即震中以南)的破裂规模较大,且以左旋走滑为主,对近东西向断层的西段起到了一定程度的解锁作用,可能是震中以西无明显主震破裂但存在密集余震分布的主要原因. 相似文献
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The Haicheng,China, earthquake of 4 February 1975; the first successfully predicted major earthquake
R. D. Adams 《地震工程与结构动力学》1976,4(5):423-437
The earthquake of magnitude 7.3 that occurred near the town of Haicheng in north-east China on 4 February 1975 was the first major earthquake anywhere in the world known to have been predicted with enough certainty for people to have been warned, and measures taken for civil protection. These steps were successful in keeping the number of casualties small. This paper describes a visit to the affected area seven and a half months after the earthquake, and discussions with Chinese scientists about their successful prediction methods. The prediction resulted from the synthesis of many types of investigation, but the main methods used for long-, mid- and short-term prediction appear to have been based on studies of seismicity, deformation and foreshocks respectively. 相似文献
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Two categories of earthquake precursors,physical and tectonic,and their roles in intermediate-term earthquake prediction 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Katsuhiko Ishibashi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(2-4):687-700
I suggest that earthquake precursors can be divided into two major categories, physical and tectonic. I define physical precursor to be a direct or indirect indication of initiation or progression of an irreversible rupture-generating physical process within the preparation zone of a forthcoming earthquake. Tectonic precursor is defined as a manifestation of tectonic movement which takes place outside the preparation zone of an impending earthquake as a link in a chain of particular local tectonism in each individual area preceding the earthquake.Most intermediate-term, short-term and immediate precursors of various disciplines within the source regions of main shocks are considered physical ones. Some precursory crustal deformations around the source regions are, however, possibly tectonic precursors, because they may be caused by episodic plate motions or resultant block movements in the neighboring regions of the fault segments that will break. A possible example of this phenomena is the anomalous crustal uplift in the Izu Peninsula, Japan, before the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake ofM
s
6.8. Some precursory changes in seismicity patterns in wide areas surrounding source regions also seem to be tectonic precursors, because they were probably caused by the particular tectonic setting of each region. A typical example is a so-called doughnut pattern before the 1923 Kanto, Japan, earthquake ofM
s
8.2.Although most studies on earthquake precursors so far seem to regard implicitly all precursory phenomena observed as physical ones, the two categories should be distinguished carefully when statistical analysis or physical modeling is carried out based on reported precursory phenomena. In active plate boundary zones, where a practical strategy for earthquake prediction may well be different from that in intraplate regions, tectonic precursors can be powerful additional tools for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. 相似文献
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Earthquake of November 30, 2004, in Podhale region, southern Poland, was of unexpectedly big size in this area of weak seismicity.
As Poland is considered a country of low seismicity, the earthquake has caused concern about seismic hazard in Poland, especially
since it took place shortly after the even more unexpected Kaliningrad Region, Russia, earthquakes of September 21, 2004,
that inflicted minor damage in northern Poland. The paper presents the findings on the Podhale earthquake which reached macroseismic
intensity up to 7 and magnitude 4.7 (m
b
; ISC). The event was felt up to a distance of about 100 km and inflicted slight damage to buildings in its narrow epicentral
area, thus evidencing its relatively shallow depth. The quake has been located near the village of Skrzypne, about 15 km west-southwest
of the district capital Nowy Targ. The source mechanism has been found to be of dip slip normal fault type, although a problem
remains of association of this mechanism with known tectonic dislocations in the region. The earthquake has been followed
by a long series of aftershocks. Their distribution in time is also studied and the biggest aftershocks have been located. 相似文献
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Introduction As we well know, the hazard of earthquake is very wide especially in cities. The conventionalmethods to investigate the damage are difficult to meet the requirements in applications. In recentyears, with the rapid development of remote sensing, especially the successful launch and applica-tion of high-resolution commercial remote sensing satellite, it has become possible to recognize andextract damage information by using remote sensing. The researchers at home and abroad hav… 相似文献
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This paper briefly reviews the main topics developed in the last 15 years dealing with advances on predicting earthquake scenarios for the Lisbon Region. These developments, which have been reverted into seismic scenario simulators, include the entire earthquake process, as different modules, from the seismic source to vulnerability modelling. Recent achievements in several modules are presented, describing the level of uncertainties associated with the source, attenuation, soil effect, typology classification and inventory of the building stock, and vulnerability assessment of each typology. One simplified model is shown, and results of other models are compared for two selected occurrence scenarios. The paper ends with a brief appointment on the selection of scenario types, a key point in the application of simulators, and highlights the issues where more research and development should be made to optimize the gains in knowledge and to reduce overall uncertainties. 相似文献
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Sergio G. Ferraes 《Journal of Seismology》2003,7(2):145-153
The use of probability distribution ofrecurrence times as described by theexponential, Weibull and Rayleihgprobability densities form the core of theprobabilistic seismic prediction analysispresented in this paper. Using these threeprobabilistic models we derive threeformulas to calculate the conditionalprobability P(t|t) than an earthquakeevent will occur in the time interval (t, t+ t), provide that it has not occurredin the elapsed time t since the last largeearthquake (M 6.4) in the Tokyo area.This paper proposes a new method toestimate the time interval t foroccurrence of a new large earthquake inTokyo area. This time interval is measuredafter the elapsed time (t) since the lastlarge earthquake. To do this we use thethree formulas for the conditionalprobability P(t|t) and the criterionof the maximum conditional probability ofearthquake occurrence.Using a list of historical earthquakeswhich have occurred in the Tokyo area asgiven by Usami (1976, pp. 235–243), wefound that: (1) Using the exponentialmodel, it is estimated that a highlydamaging earthquake magnitude M 6.4, mayoccur before the year 2009.50, orequivalently before June 2009; (2) Usingthe Weibull model, it is estimated that thedamaging earthquake (M 6.4) may occurbefore the year 2129.80, or equivalentlybefore October 2129. 相似文献
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通过计算Z值的标准正态偏差及古登堡里克特关系中的b值,研究了2003年台湾成功地震（Mw=6．8）之前台湾地区地震活动性图像的变化。在成功地震震源周围的Z值分布中可以识别出地震活动的Mogi环形变化。在成功地震之前的震源区附近还明显看到b值的下降。相对较低的地震活动速率和b值的下降可能是整个地震活动中与平静相联系并使得成功地震前主震区域中等事件活动加强的前兆现象。 相似文献