Performance of a conceptual and physically based model in simulating the response of a semi‐urbanized watershed in San Antonio,Texas     

Almoutaz A. El Hassan  H. O. Sharif  Terrance Jackson  Singaiah Chintalapudi 《水文研究》2013,27(24):3394-3408

The need for accurate hydrologic analysis and rainfall–runoff modelling tools has been rapidly increasing because of the growing complexity of operational hydrologic and hydraulic problems associated with population growth, rapid urbanization and expansion of agricultural activities. Given the recent advances in remote sensing of physiographic features and the availability of near real‐time precipitation products, rainfall–runoff models are expected to predict runoff more accurately. In this study, we compare the performance and implementation requirements of two rainfall–runoff models for a semi‐urbanized watershed. One is a semi‐distributed conceptual model, the Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC‐HMS). The other is a physically based, distributed‐parameter hydrologic model, the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA). Four flood events that took place on the Leon Creek watershed, a sub‐watershed of the San Antonio River basin in Texas, were used in this study. The two models were driven by the Multisensor Precipitation Estimator radar products. One event (in 2007) was used for HEC‐HMS and GSSHA calibrations. Two events (in 2004 and 2007) were used for further calibration of HEC‐HMS. Three events (in 2002, 2004 and 2010) were used for model validation. In general, the physically based, distributed‐parameter model performed better than the conceptual model and required less calibration. The two models were prepared with the same minimum required input data, and the effort required to build the two models did not differ substantially. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

G) Personalia     

Waldo E. SMITH  L. J. TISON 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):112-113

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework for identifying the parameters of a lumped routing model in small to medium sized catchments where lateral inflows can be large but poorly defined. In a first step, a priori estimates of the parameters are made based on topography, aerial photographs, flood marks and field surveys. In a second step, runoff data are analysed of reservoir release events and convective events where no rainfall in the direct catchments occurred. In a third step the routing model is calibrated to the results of hydrodynamic models for scenarios of different magnitudes. In a fourth step, these pieces of information are combined, allowing for soft expert judgement to be incorporated. In a fifth step, the routing parameters are fine tuned to observed flood events where lateral inflows are estimated by a rainfall—runoff model. The framework is illustrated by the Kamp flood forecasting system in Austria that has been in operational use since 2006.  相似文献   

Robustness of flood-model calibration using single and multiple events     

J. E. Reynolds  S. Halldin  J. Seibert  C. Y. Xu  T. Grabs 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(5):842-853

ABSTRACT

Lack of discharge data for model calibration is challenging for flood prediction in ungauged basins. Since establishment and maintenance of a permanent discharge station is resource demanding, a possible remedy could be to measure discharge only for a few events. We tested the hypothesis that a few flood-event hydrographs in a tropical basin would be sufficient to calibrate a bucket-type rainfall–runoff model, namely the HBV model, and proposed a new event-based calibration method to adequately predict floods. Parameter sets were chosen based on calibration of different scenarios of data availability, and their ability to predict floods was assessed. Compared to not having any discharge data, flood predictions improved already when one event was used for calibration. The results further suggest that two to four events for calibration may considerably improve flood predictions with regard to accuracy and uncertainty reduction, whereas adding more events beyond this resulted in small performance gains.  相似文献   

Rainfall–runoff–inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin     

Takahiro Sayama  Go Ozawa  Takahiro Kawakami  Seishi Nabesaka  Kazuhiko Fukami 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):298-312

Abstract

Pakistan has suffered a devastating flood disaster in 2010. In the Kabul River basin (92 605 km²), large-scale riverine and flash floods caused destructive damage with more than 1100 casualties. This study analysed rainfall–runoff and inundation in the Kabul River basin with a newly developed model that simulates the processes of rainfall–runoff and inundation simultaneously based on two-dimensional diffusion wave equations. The simulation results showed a good agreement with an inundation map produced based on MODIS for large-scale riverine flooding. In addition, the simulation identified flash flood-affected areas, which were confirmed to be severely damaged based on a housing damage distribution map. Since the model is designed to be used even immediately after a disaster, it can be a useful tool for analysing large-scale flooding and to provide supplemental information to agencies for relief operations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Sayama, T., Ozawa, G., Kawakami, T., Nabesaka, S. and Fukami, K., 2012. Rainfall–runoff–inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 298–312.  相似文献   

13e SESSION DU COMITÉ CONSULTATIF KARACHI 4–15 NOVEMBRE 1957     

L. ALFÖLDI  J. GÁLFI 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):8-12

Abstract

Event-based methods are used in flood estimation to obtain the entire flood hydrograph. Previously, such methods adopted in the UK have relied on pre-determined values of the input variables (e.g. rainfall and antecedent conditions) to a rainfall–runoff model, which is expected to result in an output flood of a particular return period. In contrast, this paper presents a method that allows all the input variables to take on values across the full range of their individual distributions. These values are then brought together in all possible combinations as input to an event-based rainfall–runoff model in a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Further, this simulation strategy produces a long string of events (on average 10 per year), where dependencies from one event to the next, as well as between different variables within a single event, are accounted for. Frequency analysis is then applied to the annual maximum peak flows and flow volumes.

Citation Svensson, C., Kjeldsen, T.R., and Jones, D.A., 2013. Flood frequency estimation using a joint probability approach within a Monte Carlo framework. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–20.  相似文献   

Identification of rainfall–runoff models for operational applications / Identification de modèles pluie–débit pour des applications opérationnelles     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)

Abstract

The problem of selecting appropriate objective functions for the identification of a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model is investigated, focusing on the value of the model in an operational setting. A probability-distributed soil moisture model is coupled with a linear parallel routing scheme, and conditioned on rainfall–runoff observations from three catchments in the southeast of England. Using an abstraction control problem, which requires accurate simulation of the intermediate flow range, it is shown that using the traditional RMSE fit criterion, produces operationally sub-optimal predictions. This is true in the identification period, when applied to a testing period, and to proxy catchment data. Using a second case study of the Leaf River in Mississippi (USA), where the focus changes to predicting flood peaks over a specified threshold, also suggests that the relevant flood threshold should govern the objective function choice. It is concluded that, due to limitations in the structure of the employed model, it would be counter-productive to try to achieve a good all-round representation of the rainfall–runoff processes, and that a more empirical approach to identification may be preferred for specific forecasting problems. This leaves us with the question of how far hydrological realism should be sacrificed in favour of purpose-driven objective functions.  相似文献   

Development of a thresholds approach for real‐time flash flood prediction in complex geomorphological river basins     

Nektarios N. Kourgialas  George P. Karatzas  Nikolaos P. Nikolaidis 《水文研究》2012,26(10):1478-1494

Flash floods represent one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters worldwide. The hydrological analysis of a flash flood event contributes in the understanding of the runoff creation process. This study presents the analysis of some flash flood events that took place in a complex geomorphological Mediterranean River basin. The objective of the present work is to develop the thresholds for a real‐time flash flood forecasting model in a complex geomorphological watershed, based on high‐frequency data from strategically located hydrological and meteorological telemetric stations. These stations provide hourly real‐time data which were used to determine hydrological and meteorological parameters. The main characteristics of various hydrographs specified in this study were the runoff coefficients, lag time, time to peak, and the maximum potential retention. The estimation of these hydrometeorological parameters provides the necessary information in order to successfully manage flash floods events. Especially, the time to peak is the most significant hydrological parameter that affects the response time of an oncoming flash flood event. A study of the above parameters is essential for the specification of thresholds which are related to the geomorphological characteristics of the river basin, the rainfall accumulation of an event, the rainfall intensity, the threshold runoff through karstic area, the season during which the rainfall takes place and the time intervals between the rainstorms that affect the soil moisture conditions. All these factors are combined into a real‐time‐threshold flash flood prediction model. Historical flash flood events at the downstream are also used for the validation of the model. An application of the proposed model is presented for the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A stochastic framework to assess the performance of flood warning systems based on rainfall‐runoff modeling          下载免费PDF全文

J. Yazdi  S. A. A. Salehi Neyshabouri  S. Golian 《水文研究》2014,28(17):4718-4731

Nowadays, Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems (FFWSs) are known as the most inexpensive and efficient non‐structural measures for flood damage mitigation in the world. Benefit to cost of the FFWSs has been reported to be several times of other flood mitigation measures. Beside these advantages, uncertainty in flood predictions is a subject that may affect FFWS's reliability and the benefits of these systems. Determining the reliability of advanced flood warning systems based on the rainfall–runoff models is a challenge in assessment of the FFWS performance which is the subject of this study. In this paper, a stochastic methodology is proposed to provide the uncertainty band of the rainfall–runoff model and to calculate the probability of acceptable forecasts. The proposed method is based on Monte Carlo simulation and multivariate analysis of the predicted time and discharge error data sets. For this purpose, after the calibration of the rainfall–runoff model, the probability distributions of input calibration parameters and uncertainty band of the model are estimated through the Bayesian inference. Then, data sets of the time and discharge errors are calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation, and the probability of acceptable model forecasts is calculated by multivariate analysis of data using copula functions. The proposed approach was applied for a small watershed in Iran as a case study. The results showed using rainfall–runoff modeling based on real‐time precipitation is not enough to attain high performance for FFWSs in small watersheds, and it seems using weather forecasts as the inputs of rainfall–runoff models is essential to increase lead times and the reliability of FFWSs in small watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrometeorological controls and erosive response of an extreme alpine debris flow     

Lorenzo Marchi  Marco Cavalli  Marco Sangati  Marco Borga 《水文研究》2009,23(19):2714-2727

On 29 August, 2003, an intense convective storm system affected the Fella River basin, in the eastern Italian Alps, producing rainfall peaks of approximately 390 mm in 12 h. The storm triggered an unusually large debris flow in the ungauged Rio Cucco basin (0·65 km²), with a volume of approximately 78 000 m³. The analysis of the time evolution of the rainstorm over the basin has been based on rainfall estimates from radar observations and data recorded by a raingauge network. Detailed geomorphological field surveys, carried out both before and after the flood of August 2003, and the application of a distributed hydrological model have enabled assessment of flood response, estimation of erosion volumes and sediment supply to the channel network. The accounts of two eyewitnesses have provided useful elements for reconstructing the time evolution and the flow processes involved in the event. Liquid peak discharge estimates cluster around 20 m³ s^?1 km^?2, placing this event on the flood envelope curve for the eastern Italian Alps. The hydrological analysis has shown that the major controls of the flood response were the exceptional cumulated rainfall amount, required to exceed the large initial losses, and the large rainfall intensities at hourly temporal scales, required to generate high flood response at the considered basin scale. Observations on the deposits accumulated on the alluvial fan indicate that, although the dominant flow process was a debris flow, sheetflood also contributed to fan aggradation and fluvial reworking had an important role in winnowing debris‐flow lobes and redistributing sediment on the fan surface. This points out to the large discharge values during the recession phase of the flood, implying an important role for subsurface flow on runoff generation of this extreme flash flood event. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Morphodynamics of a 1000‐year flood in the Kamp River,Austria, and impacts on floodplain morphology     

C. Hauer  H. Habersack 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2009,34(5):654-682

This paper investigates the impact of a 1000‐year flood in August 2002 on floodplains and valley morphology of an Austrian mixed alluvial bed rock river. Discharges with a recurrence interval between 500 and 2000 years caused distinctive overbank scouring and material deposition in the floodplains. After the 1000‐year flood, those morphologically affected areas were at random intervals documented over the whole longitudinal profile. In addition to overbank erosion in curved sections (cut‐offs), the river bed locally widened, floodplain stripping occurred and local overbank scours were documented along straight parts of the river. A hydrodynamic‐numerical model, combined with field measurements, was used to analyse the cause of these erosional landforms. Based on the modelled hydraulic conditions for a one‐year flood (30–78 m³ s^–1) and the catastrophic 2002 event (700–800 m³ s^–1), the numerical results allowed a cause‐effect study with 19 parameters. Deterministic and statistical analysis (ANOVA, discriminant analysis) showed that the morphodynamic effects of the 2002 flood were influenced by the variability of valley morphology of the Kamp River, which led partially to supercritical flow during flood constriction. These processes were in some cases also anthropogenically influenced. Lateral constriction and expansion of the valley geometry over short distances led to scouring and aggradation within the inundated areas during the event. These morphological features were therefore responsible for the elongated scour holes in the floodplains. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Rolf Weingartner  Jürg Luterbacher  Tom Reist  Jürg Trösch 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):733-758

Abstract

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m ³ s^‐1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m ³ s ^‐1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Citation Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733–758.  相似文献   

Coupling the Xinanjiang model to a kinematic flow model based on digital drainage networks for flood forecasting   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jintao Liu  Xi Chen  Jiabao Zhang  Markus Flury 《水文研究》2009,23(9):1337-1348

The Xinanjiang model, which is a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model and has been successfully and widely applied in humid and semi‐humid regions in China, is coupled by the physically based kinematic wave method based on a digital drainage network. The kinematic wave Xinanjiang model (KWXAJ) uses topography and land use data to simulate runoff and overland flow routing. For the modelling, the catchment is subdivided into numerous hillslopes and consists of a raster grid of flow vectors that define the water flow directions. The Xinanjiang model simulates the runoff yield in each grid cell, and the kinematic wave approach is then applied to a ranked raster network. The grid‐based rainfall‐runoff model was applied to simulate basin‐scale water discharge from an 805‐km² catchment of the Huaihe River, China. Rainfall and discharge records were available for the years 1984, 1985, 1987, 1998 and 1999. Eight flood events were used to calibrate the model's parameters and three other flood events were used to validate the grid‐based rainfall‐runoff model. A Manning's roughness via a linear flood depth relationship was suggested in this paper for improving flood forecasting. The calibration and validation results show that this model works well. A sensitivity analysis was further performed to evaluate the variation of topography (hillslopes) and land use parameters on catchment discharge. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Simulating hydrological response for the R‐5 catchment: comparison of two models and the impact of the roads     

Keith Loague  Joel E. VanderKwaak 《水文研究》2002,16(5):1015-1032

In this paper the performance of two hydrological‐response models is evaluated and compared based upon simulations for a single rainfall–runoff event. The two models are QPBRRM, a relatively simple model of Horton overland flow, and InHM, a comprehensive physics‐based model of each of the known streamflow generation mechanisms. The rainfall–runoff event focused upon in this study is from the small rangeland catchment in Oklahoma known as R‐5. When calibrated, both QPBRRM and InHM are shown to effectively simulate the R‐5 event. The calibration procedures used in this study for QPBRRM and InHM were quite different. The calibration of QPBRRM was a curve fitting exercise, whereas the calibration of InHM was based upon an internally valid estimate of the continuous head field. In this study QPBRRM did not perform well outside of the calibrated range. The impact of the roads cutting across the R‐5 catchment is simulated with InHM and discussed for the first time in the study reported here. The relative merits of QPBRRM and InHM are each discussed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Storm‐event rainfall–runoff modelling approach for ungauged sites in Taiwan     

Yu‐Chi Wang  Shien‐Tsung Chen  Pao‐Shan Yu  Tao‐Chang Yang 《水文研究》2008,22(21):4322-4330

This work develops a top‐down modelling approach for storm‐event rainfall–runoff model calibration at unmeasured sites in Taiwan. Twenty‐six storm events occurring in seven sub‐catchments in the Kao‐Ping River provided the analytical data set. Regional formulas for three important features of a streamflow hydrograph, i.e. time to peak, peak flow, and total runoff volume, were developed via the characteristics of storm event and catchment using multivariate regression analysis. Validation of the regional formulas demonstrates that they reasonably predict the three features of a streamflow hydrograph at ungauged sites. All of the sub‐catchments in the study area were then adopted as ungauged areas, and the three streamflow hydrograph features were calculated by the regional formulas and substituted into the fuzzy multi‐objective function for rainfall–runoff model calibration. Calibration results show that the proposed approach can effectively simulate the streamflow hydrographs at the ungauged sites. The simulated hydrographs more closely resemble observed hydrographs than hydrographs synthesized using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) dimensionless unit hydrograph method, a conventional method for hydrograph estimation at ungauged sites in Taiwan. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impact assessment of climatic and land-use changes on flood runoff in southeast Queensland     

Yi-Ru Chen  Bofu Yu 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1759-1769

Abstract

Over the past century, land-use has changed in southeast Queensland, and when coupled with climatic change, the risk of flooding has increased. This research aims to examine impacts of climate and land-use changes on flood runoff in southeast Queensland, Australia. A rainfall–runoff model, RORB, was calibrated and validated using observed flood hydrographs for one rural and one urbanized catchment, for 1961–1990. The validated model was then used to generate flood hydrographs using projected rainfall based on two climate models: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1) and the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), for 2016–2045. Projected daily rainfall for the two contrasting periods was used to derive adjustment factors for a given frequency of occurrence. Two land-use change scenarios were used to evaluate likely impacts. Based on the projected rainfall, the results showed that, in both catchments, future flood magnitudes are unlikely to increase for large flood events. Extreme land-use change would significantly impact flooding in the rural catchment, but not the urbanized catchment.