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1.
强震远场前兆异常在地震预报中的应用 总被引：9，自引：4，他引：9
强震不仅有近场前兆异常，而且也有远场前兆异常，后者在地震预报中可以起到三个方面的作用：（１）远场前兆异常多在震前的短临阶段准同步地出现，为短临预报提供了较丰富的信息，有助于作出短临预报；（２）远场前兆异常一般具有双重或多重前兆的性质，它们是比较可靠的前兆异常，可为预报地震提供依据；（３）远场前兆异常显示明显的地区，是应力积累较高的地区，往往是后继地震发生地方，即指出了地震可能发生的地域。因此，对远 相似文献
2.
根据中强地震前前兆观测资料的异常特征和各种前兆异常可信度的差异,考虑到单项观测数据和多项观测数据的相互联系,提出了用综合参数S描述多项前兆观测数据整体变化。结果表明,与单项前兆观测数据比较,综合参数S有变化平稳、震前异常反应明显等优点,可以作为地震预报实践中识别前兆异常的方法之一。 相似文献
3.
动物习性异常作为地震前兆研究的历史与未来 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
黄赞 《地震地磁观测与研究》2006,27(4):44-51
地震前动物习性异常在很早就有历史文献记录记载。动物习性异常是海城地震预报中重要的宏观前兆之一。此后动物习性异常作为地震前兆的研究在全世界范围内得到重视。因为地震并不是动物习性异常的唯一原因,这一研究后来基本上被放弃。在生命科学的研究达到分子水平并进入基因层次以后,动物习性异常作为地震前兆的研究又重新开始。现在的研究试图从基因遗传水平上解释动物的地震避险能力是如何遗传与进化的,并运用现代分子生物学的技术解开动物习性异常的机理,找出作为地震前兆的特有反应,从而做出地震预报。 相似文献
4.
应用地震事件判定前兆异常的可靠性 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
中国大陆及其邻区发生显性地震前后，远场的一些前兆异常会呈现出明显的地震效应，所以，可以认定它们是地震兆异常。在这些远场地震前兆异常中，有的具有双重兆或多重前兆的性质即可以用于后继地震的预后，所以，对地后继地震来说，它们就是可靠的前兆异常。 相似文献
5.
李滔 《地震地磁观测与研究》2006,27(1):8-12
通过对保山5．0级地震前的前兆异常特征分析,并在此基础上,结合“八五”、“九五”地震预报攻关成果和长期的研究与经验积累,论述了2004年10月19日保山5．0级地震的短期预报的主要依据,详细研究了地震前的中短期及临震前前兆异常特征,中期表现为地震学空间分布异常,短临表现为前兆出现突变异常,形态出现加速、转折,由远致近向震中区收缩的特性。 相似文献
6.
昆仑山口西8.1级地震前青海省形变及地温前兆特征分析 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
通过对青海省地倾斜、地应力、深井地温3种前兆手段在昆仑山口西8．1级地震前异常的分析与研究，得出了强地震远场前兆的一些初步特征，并与近场前兆异常特征做了比较，这对该省今后强震短期预报将是有益的。 相似文献
7.
西藏玛尼7.5级地震与云南的远场前兆异常 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
远场前兆,是一种场兆,它是地壳构造活动的反映,往往也是强震连发的异常表现,它显示区域构造应力场的增强作用.1996年2月3日丽江7.0级大震后,云南省的前兆异常突出.前兆异常分布广,异常种类也多;有新的趋势性异常出现,持续多年的继承性异常也很多;有些前兆异常幅度类似于孟连、武定、丽江三次强震前的异常图象.1997年7～9月,这些趋势性异常或继承性异常出现转折与恢复,一些短期异常也趋于结束.如果说云南地区没有一次强震或周围地区没有一次大震即将发生,这些异常是很难得到解释的.1997年11月8日西藏玛尼发生7.5级大震,正好在这个发震的时间段上.应该讲,这些前兆异常与7.5级大震有关,属于远场前兆异常.这样,不仅可解释1997年云南地区有异常而没有发生强震,也进一步说明这些前兆异常为远场大震异常. 相似文献
8.
形变,应变短临前兆标志体系 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
建立各手段的前兆异常标志,从而组合各类前兆标志体系是“八五”地震短临预报攻关研究项目的重要目标之一。本文以形变,应变手段的主要研究对象,初步建立了一个形变应变短临前兆标志体系,并总结出了各种异常的判别标志,为利用系统优化理论和专家系统理论进一步研究形变应前兆系统和地震之间的关系,从而为提高中短期地震预报的水平打下了一定的基础。 相似文献
9.
由于缺乏对地震孕育和发生机理的认识，地震前兆异常判别受到人们的认识水平、周围环境甚至心理因素的影响，带有很大的随意性，以致在地震预报中出现诸多的怪异现象：地震前兆多是事后总结出来的；绝大多数异常之后没有地震发生；多数地震之前测不到前兆异常；前兆测值对近处地震无反应，但其异常与远处地震对应较好；前兆异常缺乏重现性；异常数量与台站多寡、震情紧张程度密切相关，等等。这些都说明，在地震科学的研究中，我们仍应从最基础的工作做起，再逐步地实现地震预报。 相似文献
10.
地下流体的源兆,场兆,远兆及其在地震预报中的意义 总被引：33，自引：8，他引：33
我国地震地下流体监测网中，发现强震前有３种不同的前兆异常，即来自震源的源兆异常、与地震有关的区域活动关联的场兆异常及远距离强震前出现的远兆异常，它们在成因、特征与地震预报实践中的意义不同。从数量上看，场兆是大量的，源兆是少量的，而远兆也是不可忽略的。因此，地震预报实践中，必须正确地区别这３种前兆，全力寻找源兆，积极地开发场兆的预报功能，承认远兆并揭示其科学意义。 相似文献
11.
12.
M. N. French R. L. Bras W. F. Krajewski 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1992,6(1):27-45
A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities. 相似文献
13.
《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,(12)
正SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences,an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and published by Science China Press and Springer,is committed to publishing high-quality,original results in both basic and applied research. 相似文献
14.
《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,(9)
正SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences,an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and published by Science China Press and Springer,is committed to publishing high-quality,original results in 相似文献
15.
In natural waters arsenic concentrations up to a few milligrams per litre were measured. The natural content of arsenic found in soils varies between 0.01 mg/kg and a few hundred milligrams per kilogram. Anthropogenic sources of arsenic in the environment are the smelting of ores, the burning of coal, and the use of arsenic compounds in many products and production processes in the past. A lot of arsenic compounds are toxic and cause acute and chronic poisoning. In aqueous environment the inorganic arsenic species arsenite (As(III)) and arsenate (As(V)) are the most abundant species. The mobility of these species is influenced by the pH value, the redox potential, and the presence of adsorbents such as oxides and hydroxides of Fe(III), Al(III), Mn(III/IV), humic substances, and clay minerals. 相似文献
16.
《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2014,(4)
正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and 相似文献
18.
O. Martins 《水文研究》1988,2(1):19-29
Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO3 > SO4 > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals. 相似文献
19.
Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong. 相似文献
20.
Due to deleterious effects on non-target organisms, the use of organotin compounds on boat hulls of small vessels (<25 m) has been widely prohibited. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) resolved that the complete prohibition on organotin compounds acting as biocides in antifouling systems should commence in 2008. As a result of restrictions on the use of organotin based paints, other antifouling formulations containing organic biocides have been utilised. This survey was conducted to assess the contamination of replacement biocides in the marine environment following the ban of TBT-based paints. Surface sediments samples were collected in the major ports and marinas along the France Mediterranean coastline (Cote d’Azur) and analysed for organotin compounds, Irgarol 1051, Sea-nine 211TM, Chlorothalonil, Dichlofluanid and Folpet. Every port and marina exhibited high levels of organotin compounds, with concentrations in sediments ranging from 37 ng Sn g−1dry wt in Menton Garavan to over 4000 ng Sn g−1dry wt close to the ship chandler within the port of Villefranche-sur-Mer. TBT degradation indexes suggested that fresh inputs are still made. Among the other antifoulants monitored, only Irgarol 1051 exhibited measurable concentrations in almost every port, with concentrations ranging from 40 ng g−1dry wt (Cannes) to almost 700 ng g−1dry wt (Villefranche-sur-Mer, ship chandler). 相似文献