共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 62 毫秒
1.
一个以遗传算法为基础的结构可靠性分析方法 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
本文首先总结了一次二阶矩法在结构可靠性分析时的五个弱点。针对其在寻求验算点时需要求极限状态函数的导数以及在处理多峰性极限状态函数时存在的不收敛或收敛于局部验算点等弱点，探讨了将遗传算法应用于结构可靠性分析的可能性，并在分析其应用时存在的具体问题的基础上提出了一个以智能生物为基础的遗传算法。本文的分析计算表明：遗传算法在结构可靠性分析中是适用的，它可以克服一次二阶矩法在求解验算点时存在的几个弱点。本 相似文献
2.
Higher-order approximation techniques for estimating stochastic parameter of the non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) model are
presented. The NHP model is characterized by a two-parameter cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) of sediment
displacement. Those two parameters are the temporal and spatial intensity functions, physically representing the inverse of
the average rest period and step length of sediment particles, respectively. Difficulty of estimating the parameters has,
however, restricted the applications of the NHP model. The approximation techniques are proposed to address such problem.
The basic idea of the method is to approximate a model involving stochastic parameters by Taylor series expansion. The expansion
preserves certain higher-order terms of interest. Using the experimental (laboratory or field) data, one can determine the
model parameters through a system of equations that are simplified by the approximation technique. The parameters so determined
are used to predict the cumulative distribution of sediment displacement. The second-order approximation leads to a significant
reduction of the CDF error (of the order of 47%) compared to the first-order approximation. Error analysis is performed to
evaluate the accuracy of the first- and second-order approximations with respect to the experimental data. The higher-order
approximations provide better estimations of the sediment transport and deposition that are critical factors for such environment
as spawning gravel-bed. 相似文献
3.
F.-C. Wu C.-K. Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1998,12(6):359-375
Higher-order approximation techniques for estimating stochastic parameter of the non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) model are
presented. The NHP model is characterized by a two-parameter cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) of sediment
displacement. Those two parameters are the temporal and spatial intensity functions, physically representing the inverse of
the average rest period and step length of sediment particles, respectively. Difficulty of estimating the parameters has,
however, restricted the applications of the NHP model. The approximation techniques are proposed to address such problem.
The basic idea of the method is to approximate a model involving stochastic parameters by Taylor series expansion. The expansion
preserves certain higher-order terms of interest. Using the experimental (laboratory or field) data, one can determine the
model parameters through a system of equations that are simplified by the approximation technique. The parameters so determined
are used to predict the cumulative distribution of sediment displacement. The second-order approximation leads to a significant
reduction of the CDF error (of the order of 47%) compared to the first-order approximation. Error analysis is performed to
evaluate the accuracy of the first- and second-order approximations with respect to the experimental data. The higher-order
approximations provide better estimations of the sediment transport and deposition that are critical factors for such environment
as spawning gravel-bed. 相似文献
4.
This paper proposes an approach to estimate reliability of a storm water drain (SWD) network in fuzzy framework. It involves: (i) use of proposed fuzzy Monte-Carlo simulation (FMCS) methodology to estimate fuzzy reliability of conduits in the network, (ii) construction of a reliability block diagram (RBD) for the network (system) using suggested guidelines, and (iii) use of the RBD and reliability estimates of the conduits in the network to compute system reliability based on a proposed procedure. In addition, a system reliability based methodology is proposed for design/retrofitting of SWD network by optimization of its conduit dimensions. Conventionally used reliability analysis approaches assume that the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of performance function (marginal safety) of conduits follows Gaussian distribution, which cannot be ensured in the real world scenario. The proposed approach alleviates the need for making such assumptions and can account for linguistic ambiguity in variables defining the performance function. Effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on a hypothetical SWD network and a real network in Bangalore, India. Comparison of the results obtained from the proposed approach with those from conventional Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) reliability assessment approach indicated that the estimate of system reliability and conduit reliability are higher with FMCS approach. Consequently, conduit dimensions required to attain required system (network) reliability could be expected to be lower when FMCS approach is used for designing or retrofitting a system. 相似文献
5.
Response uncertainty evaluation and dynamic reliability analysis corresponding to classical stochastic dynamic analysis are usually restricted to the uncertainties of the excitation. The inclusion of the parameter uncertainties contained in structural properties and excitation characteristics has become an increasingly important problem in many areas of dynamics. In the present paper, a point estimate procedure is proposed for the evaluation of stochastic response uncertainty, and a response surface approach procedure in standard normal space is proposed for analysis of time-variant reliability analysis for hysteretic MDF structures having parameter uncertainties. Using the proposed procedures, the response uncertainties and time-variant reliability can be easily obtained by several repetitions of stochastic response analysis under given parameters without conducting sensitivity analysis, which is considered to be one of the primary difficulties associated with conventional methods. In the time-variant reliability analysis, the failure probability can be readily obtained by improving the accuracy of the first-order reliability method using the empirical second-order reliability index. The random variables are divided into two groups, those with CDF and those without CDF. The latter are included via the high-order moment standardization technique. A numerical example of a 15F hysteretic MDF structure that takes into account uncertainties of four structural parameters and three excitation characteristics is performed, based on which the proposed procedures are investigated and the effects of parameter uncertainties are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
随机结构动力可靠度分析的极值概率密度方法 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
提出了随机结构动力可靠度分析的极值概率密度方法。基于概率密度演化的基本思想,构造一个虚拟随机过程,使得随机结构动力反应的极值为该虚拟随机过程的截口随机变量。进而．采用概率密度演化方法,建立概率密度演化方程并求解给出随机结构动力反应的极值分布。在安全域内积分即可给出结构动力可靠度,当安全界限为随机变量时,采用这一方法几乎不增加额外的工作量,与随机模拟结果的比较表明,本文建议方法具有良好的精度和效率。 相似文献
7.
An analytical approximation for the calculation of the stationary reliability of linear dynamic systems with higher‐dimensional output under Gaussian excitation is presented. For systems with certain parameters theoretical and computational issues are discussed for two topics: (1) the correlation of failure events at different parts of the failure boundary and (2) the approximation of the conditional out‐crossing rate across the failure boundary by the unconditional one. The correlation in the first topic is approximated by a multivariate integral, which is evaluated numerically by an efficient algorithm. For the second topic some existing semi‐empirical approximations are discussed and a new one is introduced. The extension to systems with uncertain parameters requires the calculation of a multi‐dimensional reliability integral over the space of the uncertain parameters. An existing asymptotic approximation is used for this task and an efficient scheme for numerical calculation of the first‐ and second‐order derivatives of the integrand is presented. Stochastic simulation using an importance sampling approach is also considered as an alternative method, especially for cases where the dimension of the uncertain parameters is moderately large. Comparisons between the proposed approximations and Monte Carlo simulation for some examples related to earthquake excitation are made. It is suggested that the proposed analytical approximations are appropriate for problems that require a large number of consistent error estimates of the probability of failure, as occurs in reliability‐based design optimization. Numerical problems regarding computational efficiency may arise when the dimension of both the output and the uncertain parameters is large. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
对比分析了随机结构动力可靠度计算的三种估计算法.渐进展开法是基于Laplace算法对概率积分进行渐进估计的,此法通过计算最大被积分式值对应点,并将其代入概率积分的渐进估计表达式求解失效概率.由于概率积分的主要贡献来自于最大被积分式值对应点的周围,因此本文的重要抽样法假定重要抽样函数的最大似然值等于最大被积分式值对应点值.极值分布-泰勒展开法首先通过结构随机参数的极值分布函数给出失效概率的表达式,随后利用泰勒展开法对失效概率进行估计,其中采用中心差分法对极值分布函数的梯度进行估算.最后应用三种算法和Monte Carlo法对受高斯白噪声激励作用的单自由度随机结构进行了计算,结果表明三种方法不但运算简便,而且对比Monte Carlo法计算效率有显著提高. 相似文献
9.
In this paper an approach is developed for establishing optimal maintenance (repair) strategies of structures in seismic zones. The approach is based on expected future costs and the main decision variable is a damage threshold for repair given an acceptable reliability level. It is considered that structural damage accumulates over a number of earthquakes until a threshold is reached or exceeded, after which the structure is repaired so that there is no remaining damage. A Markov model is implemented for such a process of damage accumulation during future earthquakes. An algorithm is proposed for computing non‐linear structural response to earthquakes using a damage function model. This algorithm is used to evaluate transition probabilities between damage states based on simulations of future earthquakes of given intensities. Expressions are derived for evaluating expected life‐cycle damage costs and structural reliability as a function of time and of the damage threshold for repair. As an application, a single‐degree‐of‐freedom structural system is studied. In addition, the paper addresses the case of instrumented structures where information from earthquake response records is available. Such information is incorporated into the formulation for maintenance strategies by means of a Bayesian approach for updating the probability distribution of structural damage and of non‐linear behaviour parameters so that predictions about costs and reliability are improved. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
针对地震偏移算法中单程波算子的特征函数近似，采用最优可分表示法将该特征函数展开为空间变量(g)和水平波数(k)的可分表达式，以此可分近似表达式为基础，运用正反Fourier变换重新构造单程波算子. 为了克服特征函数最优可分近似计算在奇点及其领域产生的数值振荡，引入等价黏性技巧以增强算法的数值计算稳定性，并采用分频最优可分及对空间变量(g)线性插值的方法，不仅提高了计算精度，也节约计算机时. 文中具体研究了单程波算子的脉冲响应和二维叠前深度偏移. 结果表明，在不甚大步长情况下，本文构造的算子具有适应横向强变速的能力，运用Marmousi模型验证了本文方法适合复杂构造的成像. 相似文献
11.
结构模糊随机可靠度的实用计算方法 总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15
本文以模糊随机变量为基本变量，定义了结构的模糊随机功能函数，分析了结构有效状态与失效状态之间的模糊性，建立了结构的模糊随机极限状态方程。利用序关系给出单失效模式结构的模糊安全准则，讨论了ａ－约束水平条件下单失效模式结构的失效概率、可靠度及可靠指标，进而得出结构的模糊随机失效概率、模糊随机可靠度及模糊可靠指标等。本文给出的具体计算方法和目前设计规范中彩的方法是相对应的。 相似文献
12.
Based on a reliability level 2 method, a procedure is proposed to design reinforced concrete structures for elevated tanks subjected to seismic action, with a specified probability of failure in a 50-year design life. To evaluate the probability of failure the ultimate limit state is obtained when the top column displacement demanded by the earthquake, a random variable, reaches the allowable displacement, which is here treated as deterministic. The seismic action is characterized probabilistically by the power spectral density function of the ground acceleration, which is obtained from a design spectrum. The strength and ductility of an annular column section of confined reinforced concrete for cyclic loads are evaluated with design aids. Design charts are made for a given tank capacity and specified seismic zone that allow one to choose different combinations of strength, stiffness and ductility for the same tolerable probability of failure. A step by step method is suggested for the design of the annular column section, choosing finally the most convenient design. The advantage of this methodology is shown through a numerical example. 相似文献
13.
Fatigue reliability analysis of deep water rigid marine risers associated with Morison-type wave loading 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Muddassir Nazir Faisal Khan Paul Amyotte 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(3):379-390
This work presents a simple and efficient framework for the fatigue reliability assessment of a vertical top-tensioned rigid
riser. The fatigue damage response is considered as a narrow-band Gaussian stationary random process with a zero mean for
the short-term behavior of a riser. Non-linearity in a response associated with Morison-type wave loading is accounted for
by using a factor, which is the ratio of expected damage according to a non-linear probability distribution to the expected
damage according to a linear method of analysis. Long-term non-stationary response is obtained by summing up a large number
of short-term stationary responses. Uncertainties associated with both the strength and stress parts of the limit state function
are quantified by a lognormal distribution. A closed form reliability analysis is carried out, which is based on the limit
state function formulated in terms of Miner’s cumulative damage rule. The results thus obtained are compared with the well-documented
lognormal format of reliability analysis based on time to fatigue failure. The validity of using the lognormal hazard rate
function in predicting the fatigue life is discussed. A Monte Carlo simulation technique is also used as a reliability assessment
method. A simple algorithm is used to reduce the uncertainty associated with direct sampling at small probability of failure
values and a small number of simulations. Simulation results are compared with closed form solutions. A worked example is
included to show the practical riser design problem based on reliability analysis. 相似文献
14.
15.
Many investigators have attempted to define the threshold of landslide failure, that is, the level of the selected climatic variable above which a rainfall-induced landslide occurs. Intensity–duration (I–d) relationships are the most common type of empirical thresholds proposed in the literature for predicting landslide occurrence induced by rainfall. Recent studies propose the use of the kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall (J m−2 mm−1) to quantify the threshold of landslides induced by rainfall. In this paper, the relationship between rainfall duration and kinetic power corresponding to landslides triggered by rain was used to propose a new approach to define the threshold for predicting landslide occurrence. In particular, for the first time, a kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall–duration relationship is proposed for defining the minimum threshold needed for landslide failure. This new method can be applied using commonly used relationship for estimating the kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall and a new equation based on the measured raindrop size distribution. The applicability of this last method was tested using the data of rainfall intensity, duration and median volume diameter for 51 landslides in Taiwan. For the 51 landslides, the comparison between the measured pairs' kinetic power–duration and all selected relationships demonstrated that the equation based on the measured raindrop size distribution is the best method to define the landslide occurrence threshold, as it is both a process-oriented approach and is characterized by the best statistical performance. This last method has also the advantage to allow the forecasting of landslide hazard before the end of the rainfall event, since the rainfall kinetic power threshold value can be exceeded for a time interval less than the event duration. 相似文献
16.
In this paper sediment yield data, measured from 1978 to 1994 in two small Calabrian basins (W2 and W3) reafforested with eucalyptus trees (Eucalyptus occidentalis Engl.), and the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) applied in a distributed form are used to evaluate the anti-erosive effects of eucalyptus cover. At first step the sediment yield measurements observed in W2 basin are used to estimate a single cover management factor representative of the eucalyptus coppice and equal to the median value (0·164) of the cover management factor values calculated for each runoff event. Then, the reliability of the selected representative cover management factor is verified on W3 by comparing the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the measured sediment yield with the CDF of the calculated one. Finally, the temporal analysis of the crop and management factor is developed searching, at monthly and annual scale, the correlation between crop anti-erosive effectiveness and rainfall erosivity index. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
A. Ganji K. Ponnambalam D. Khalili M. Karamouz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(4):259-277
A new method of reliability analysis for crop water production function is presented considering crop water demand uncertainty. The procedure uses an advanced first-order second moment (AFOSM) method in evaluating the crop yield failure probability. To determine the variance and the mean of actual evapotranspiration as the component of interest for AFOSM analysis, an explicit stochastic optimization model for optimal irrigation scheduling is developed based on the first and second-order moment analysis of the soil moisture state variables. As a result of the study, the violation probabilities of crop yield at different levels were computed from AFOSM method. Also using the optimization results and the double bounded density function estimation methodology, the weekly soil moisture density function is derived which can be used as a short term reliability index. The proposed approach does not involve any discretization of system variables. The results of reliability analysis and optimization model compare favorably with those obtained from simulation. 相似文献
18.
隔震结构"小震不坏"的动力可靠度分析 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
本文探讨叠层橡胶隔震体系在“小震不坏”条件下的动力可靠度分析。基于等效线性化的隔震工程设计参数,建立非比例阻尼隔震结构模型。采用双过滤白噪声功率谱模型描述地震动,并用林家浩虚拟激励法进行随机响应分析。以各层的最大层间位移响应作为控制指标,取结构的弹性位移限值作为位移极限值,建立功能状态方程。根据一次二阶矩方法,用串联模式计算体系的总体可靠度。文末选用了一个7层隔震框架作为数值算例,探讨了隔震阻尼、寒冷环境、节点构造误差所引起的隔震层刚度上升,以及场地土类别等对体系动力可靠性的影响。 相似文献
19.
Sung Eun Kim Ashok Kumar 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(4):241-248
Due to the nonlinear feature of a ozone process, regression based models such as the autoregressive models with an exogenous vector process (ARX) suffer from persistent diurnal behaviors in residuals that cause systematic over-predictions and under-predictions and fail to make accurate multi-step forecasts. In this article we present a simple class of the functional coefficient ARX (FARX) model which allows the regression coefficients to vary as a function of another variable. As a special case of the FARX model, we investigate the threshold ARX (TARX) model of Tong [Lecture notes in Statistics, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1983; Nonlinear time series: a dynamics system approach, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1990] which separates the ARX model in terms of a variable called the threshold variable. In this study we use time of day as the threshold variable. The TARX model can be used directly for ozone forecasts; however, investigation of the estimated coefficients over the threshold regimes suggests polynomial coefficient functions in the FARX model. This provides a parsimonious model without deteriorating the forecast performance and successfully captures the diurnal nonstationarity in ozone data. A general linear F-test is used to test varying coefficients and the portmanteau tests, based on the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation of fitted residuals, are used to test error autocorrelations. The proposed models were applied to a 2 year dataset of hourly ozone concentrations obtained in downtown Cincinnati, OH, USA. For the exogenous processes, outdoor temperature, wind speed, and wind direction were used. The results showed that both TARX and FARX models substantially improve one-day-ahead forecasts and remove the diurnal pattern in residuals for the cases considered. 相似文献
20.
The use of geometric and gamma-related distributions for frequency analysis of water deficit 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
L. Mathier L. Perreault B. Bobée F. Ashkar 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1992,6(4):239-254
This paper presents an approach to perform statistical frequency analysis of water deficit duration and severity using respectively the geometric and exponential distributions. Monthly mean water discharges are compared to a given threshold and classified in two mutually exclusive ways. This leads to a two state random variable such that: a success represents the absence of a water deficit event (mean monthly discharge exceeds threshold), and a failure, a water deficit event (mean monthly discharge is below threshold). If we suppose that this random variable gives rise to a Markov process of order 1, then the duration of a water deficit event X (consecutive months in deficit) will have a geometric distribution. In turn, the summation of discharges in deficit will give the severity of a water deficit event which can be represented by a one-parameter exponential distribution. The threshold or base level is taken as a percentile of the observed mean discharges of a given month. This base level, which varies from month to month, can be viewed as the limit of an acceptable deficit (or energetic failure) associated to a given empirical probability of being in deficit. The second step of the approach is to estimate the value of the parameter for each distribution using the maximum likelihood method. Expressions for the estimator of a given percentile,
, as well as its variance are deduced. Finally, the presented models are applied to observed data. 相似文献