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发震构造特性是潜在震源区划分及其地震年发生率确定的重要依据。潜在震源区除了反映“未来具有发生破坏性地震的地区”的内涵外,还应反映高震级档地震具有相似复发特征的涵义。由于在地震活动性参数统计单元内,有一些具有不同本底地震的活动构造块体,为更好地反映地震活动的空间不均匀性,考虑潜在震源区的三级划分是有必要的。通过分析潜在震源区内高震级档地震的复发特征,计算预测时段内潜在震源区的高震级档地震的发震概率,采用预测时段内概率等效转换获得地震年平均发生率的方法,有助于在中国地震危险性分析框架内考虑潜在震源区的强震复发特性。另外,文中还对潜在震源区内特征地震次级震级档频度不足的特性和发震构造上强震非均匀性在地震危险性分析中的应用问题进行了探讨 相似文献
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Seismotectonic Environment for Zhangbei-Shangyi Earthquake and Characteristics of Macroscopic Damage
Xu Xiwei Rang Yongkang Zhou Bengang Yin Gongming Li Jianhua and Liu WuzhouInstitute of Geology CSB Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1999,(3)
The regional seismotectonic environment for the Zhangbei- Shangyi earthquake is described, and in combination with the distribution of macroscopic seismic intensity, source mechanism solution, and interpretation of lineaments on satellite images, the seismogenic structure for the earthquake and possible seismogenic fault are discussed in this paper. It is suggested that the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake is a result of the latest movement along the northwestern termination of the Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone and we should pay serious attention to the future trend of seismic activity along this fault zone. 相似文献
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Li Yingzhen 《中国地震研究》2006,20(2):174-189
INTRODUCTIONStudy on active tectonics shows that large earthquake in seismogenic tectonics will recur in situperiodically.These large earthquakes that recur periodically are called“characteristic earthquakes”.( Wallace , et al ., 1984 ; Nishenko, 1987) . However , several sub-strong earthquakes and manymoderate-small earthquakes will occur in the interval between two temporally adjacent characteristicearthquakes,i .e .in a complete recurrence cycle (Shen Jun,et al .,1995 ,1999 ,2004) .… 相似文献
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Ruifang Yu Yisheng Song Xiangyun Guo Qianli Yang Xinjuan He Yanxiang Yu 《地震科学（英文版）》2022,35(5):314-328
Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. However, there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes. Therefore, we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation, and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method. This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves. It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications. We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area, and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finite-fault simulation. Finally, we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively. The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels. These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam, thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters. 相似文献
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工程场地地震安全性评价工作中两个问题的讨论 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
我国地震活动频度高、强度大、分布广。地震引起的建、构筑物和工程设施倒塌破坏是导致人员伤亡和经济损失的主要原因。随着我国经济快速发展,城市化进程加快,核电站、大型水电站等重大基础设施越来越多。为了最大限度地减轻地震灾害造成的损失,《中华人民共和国防震减灾法》明确规定,一般建设工程必须按照国家颁布的地震烈度区划图或者地震动参数区划图规定的抗震设防要求,进行抗震设防;新建、扩建、改建建设工程,必须达到抗震设防要求”。地震区划与地震安全性评价等工作是确定抗震设防要求的重要科学依据。承蒙工程地震界专家、学者的鼎… 相似文献
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新地震区划图潜在震源区划分的主要技术特色 总被引：13，自引：7，他引：6
简要介绍了新地震区划图潜在震源区划分方案的形成过程,重点分析了潜在震源区三级划分、东西部地区潜在震源区划分技术途径的差异、不同级别活动块体边界带对高震级潜在震源区划分的控制作用、发震构造模型及其在潜在震源区划分中的应用等主要技术特色.共划分出29个地震带、77个地震构造区和1199个潜在震源区.与中国地震动参数区划图(2001)中综合方案相比,东西部地区潜在震源区的个数都有较大的增加,其中东部地区体现在震级上限6.0、6.5和7.0级的中强潜在震源区个数的明显增加,与划分工作中加强了该地区中强地震发震构造的判识研究相关;而西部地区体现在震级上限7.5和8.0级的高震级潜在震源区个数的大幅度增加,与划分工作中注重了活动块体边界带高震级潜在震源区划分,以及强调应用发震构造模型指导潜在震源区划分的技术特色相协调. 相似文献
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F. Calamita M. Coltorti D. Piccinini P. P. Pierantoni A. Pizzi M. Ripepe V. Scisciani E. Turco 《Journal of Geodynamics》2000,29(3-5)
Analyses of structural and geomorphological data combined with remote sensing interpretation confirm previous knowledge on the existence of an extensional Quaternary tectonic regime in the Colfiorito area (Umbro-Marchean Central Apennines). This is characterized by a maximum principal axis of finite strain oriented approx. NE–SW, which is the result of a progressive deformation process due to pure and radial extension. Surface geological data, the crustal tectonic setting (reconstructed using a CROP 03 seismic reflection profile), and seismological data relative to the autumn 1997 Colfiorito earthquake sequence constrain the following seismotectonic model. We interpret the seismogenic SW-dipping low-angle normal fault pictured by seismic data as an inverted thrust ramp located in the basement at depth between 5 and 10 km. The surface projection of this seismogenic structure defines a crustal box within which high-angle normal faults are responsible for the deformation of the uppermost crust. The regional patterns of pre-existing basement thrusts therefore control the seismotectonic zoning of the area that cannot be directly related to the high-angle normal fault systems which cut through different crustal boxes; the latter system records, in fact, re-shear along pre-existing normal faults. Moreover, Quaternary slip-rates relative to high-angle normal faults in the Central Apennines are closely related to seismic hazard within each crustal box. 相似文献
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Pakistan and the western Himalaya is a region of high seismic activity located at the triple junction between the Arabian, Eurasian and Indian plates. Four devastating earthquakes have resulted in significant numbers of fatalities in Pakistan and the surrounding region in the past century (Quetta, 1935; Makran, 1945; Pattan, 1974 and the recent 2005 Kashmir earthquake). It is therefore necessary to develop an understanding of the spatial distribution of seismicity and the potential seismogenic sources across the region. This forms an important basis for the calculation of seismic hazard; a crucial input in seismic design codes needed to begin to effectively mitigate the high earthquake risk in Pakistan. The development of seismogenic source zones for seismic hazard analysis is driven by both geological and seismotectonic inputs. Despite the many developments in seismic hazard in recent decades, the manner in which seismotectonic information feeds the definition of the seismic source can, in many parts of the world including Pakistan and the surrounding regions, remain a subjective process driven primarily by expert judgment. Whilst much research is ongoing to map and characterise active faults in Pakistan, knowledge of the seismogenic properties of the active faults is still incomplete in much of the region. Consequently, seismicity, both historical and instrumental, remains a primary guide to the seismogenic sources of Pakistan. This study utilises a cluster analysis approach for the purposes of identifying spatial differences in seismicity, which can be utilised to form a basis for delineating seismogenic source regions. An effort is made to examine seismicity partitioning for Pakistan with respect to earthquake database, seismic cluster analysis and seismic partitions in a seismic hazard context. A magnitude homogenous earthquake catalogue has been compiled using various available earthquake data. The earthquake catalogue covers a time span from 1930 to 2007 and an area from 23.00° to 39.00°N and 59.00° to 80.00°E. A threshold magnitude of 5.2 is considered for K-means cluster analysis. The current study uses the traditional metrics of cluster quality, in addition to a seismic hazard contextual metric to attempt to constrain the preferred number of clusters found in the data. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define the seismic clusters for Pakistan, which can be used further in the process of defining seismogenic sources and corresponding earthquake recurrence models for estimates of seismic hazard and risk in Pakistan. Consideration of the different approaches to cluster validation in a seismic hazard context suggests that Pakistan may be divided into K?=?19 seismic clusters, including some portions of the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and India. 相似文献
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河北是华北地区乃至中国大陆东部地区地震活动最为活跃的地区之一, 构造背景复杂, 断层发育。 随着全省11个城市活断层探测与地震危险性评价项目的推进, 若干科研课题的研究, 地质构造资料逐步积累, 晚更新世以来的断层资料得到进一步更新。 如何评估这些活动断层上的最大潜在地震震级及危险性是地震中长期预测中较为重要的一个问题。 本文采用闻学泽等提出的潜在地震最大震级评估模型, 对河北地区晚更新世以来的活动断层进行断层小区划分, 建立了断层小区内最大地震震级Mmax与震级频度关系at/b值之间的经验关系, 并利用公式外推获得断层小区内的推测潜在震级上限值。 另外, 本文用强震等待时间的指数分布关系式计算了部分断层小区未来的中强地震发震概率。 相似文献
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地震烈度分布是震后灾害损失快速评估、应急救援和恢复重建工作开展的重要依据。目前地震烈度圈主要是由专家根据现场实地调查获得的烈度调查点,结合预评估烈度圈,采用GIS软件进行手动勾画得到。这种传统方法耗时耗力。提出一种基于自适应方法的地震烈度圈自动勾画方法,首先根据余震展布、居民地分布、断层属性等判断宏观震中位置,结合断裂带走向确定烈度圈长轴方向。在此基础上,利用星机地多源灾情信息融合后的最高离散烈度点生成包络线,将最高烈度与烈度圈面积的统计关系作为约束条件,运用自适应算法扩距得到最高烈度圈。在最高烈度圈的基础上,结合各级离散烈度点,基于上述方法,从高到低依次得到其他烈度圈。最后以九寨沟7.0级地震为例,实验结果表明,利用该方法能够自动生成烈度圈,利用震后获得的星机地多源灾情信息融合得到的离散烈度点生成的烈度圈准确度高于80%,有效提高地震烈度圈勾画的效率,可以为地震应急救援工作的快速开展提供支持。 相似文献
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新编制的地震动参数区划图采用了潜在震源区三级划分方案,以体现背景地震活动空间分布的不均匀性,并在地震构造区内归纳出统一的地震构造模型.本文根据西南地区潜在震源区三级划分的成果,分析了龙门山地震统计区内的龙门山和成都地震构造区的基本特征,历史地震活动强度及频度,主要活动构造的构造变形样式,建立了地震构造区的发震构造模型,确定了构造区的本底地震及划分构造源的地震构造标志.同时,提出了确定背景源空间分布函数的简单方法. 相似文献
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根据地震复发周期模型, 利用现有的地质构造等资料把南北地震带划分为若干相对独立的活动构造区, 对能量积累阶段及地震危险性的预测建立相应的数学模型, 并构建基于WebGIS的网络计算平台, 由客户端任意在研究区选择构造分区, 并输入所选构造分区相应的计算参数, 提交到集群服务器计算模型进行计算, 对所选构造分区的地震危险性阶段及潜在震级进行预测并把结果以WebGIS方式返回给客户端。 实现了利用远程计算技术与并行算法对活动断裂能量积累与释放过程的模拟计算, 其结果可以为判定地震中短期预测的地点和震级提供依据。 相似文献
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阐述张家口市尚义M_S 4.0地震构造背景、地震活动特征,总结地震应急调查成果,介绍极震区震感现象和分布范围。通过对地震现场调查点和电话调查点的烈度评定,确定极震区的影响烈度为Ⅴ度,圈定地震等烈度分布区域,同时修正观测仪器震中位置。结合本次地震的宏观烈度分布、震源机制和震区卫星影像的线性构造解释等资料,讨论本次地震的孕震构造和发震断层。 相似文献
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天山各分区地震活动性与能量积累阶段关系初探 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
本文研究了天山各地震构造区的地震活动特征与所处能量积累阶段之间的关系，在此基础上分析了天山各分区当前地震危险性。初步得到处于不同能量积累阶段的天山不同地震构造区的地震活动特点及其所反映的能量积累状态。认为天山地区的地震活动性既受区域构造运动强度的影响，又受地震构造所处的能量积累阶段的影响。对于构造运动非常强烈的地区，正确判断其目前所处能量积累阶段，可以对未来地震震级上限有比较准确的判断；而对现今地震活动相对较弱地区所处能量积累阶段的判断，可使我们对潜在地震危险有较充分的认识。研究表明，南天山西段各区能量积累水平大都进入中、后期阶段，地震活动水平高，地震危险性明显高于北天山和中天山各区（段）。北天山各分区以及中天山地区能量积累多处于早、中期阶段． 相似文献
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2013年4月20日在龙门山南段发生M_W6.7强震,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失.芦山地震发生后,针对发震断层是高角度还是低角度断层?断层的归属、性质和地震构造模型等问题,一直存在不同的认识和争议.本次研究采用了芦山震区的三条高精度二维人工地震反射剖面,结合区域地质、钻井资料,对芦山震区浅层沉积与构造变形进行综合解释;研究同时综合了震源机制解、小震重定位结果以及深地震探测剖面,并结合龙门山地区古生代以来的构造演化史,对震区地质构造进行解析.研究认为龙门山南段主要发育了三套不同层次的滑脱层并控制了上地壳形变,呈现多层滑脱、多期变形、构造叠加的复杂特征.2013年芦山地震的主要活动断层发育在深部约20 km滑脱层之上,倾向NW、倾角较陡大约在45°~50°,并产生反冲断层形成Y字状结构.地震地质解释表明,芦山地震的同震活动断层没有突破中生界和新生界,并非先前认为的双石—大川断裂(F4)或山前大邑隐伏断裂(F6);芦山地震的发震断层为一基底盲冲断层;深地震反射结果进一步揭示芦山地震的发震断层为一早期(古生代)形成的正断层.研究认为芦山地震发震构造符合简单剪切断层转折褶皱模型(Simple-shear Fault-Bend Fold),2013年芦山地震为一次非特征型地震.晚新生代以来在青藏高原向四川盆地强烈挤压持续作用下,早期正断层重新活动并产生了芦山地震.这种深部隐伏断层活化产生的特殊型地震,无疑增加了龙门山地区地震灾害的风险和不确定性. 相似文献
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A total of 235 potential seismic sources in Iran and neighboring regions are delineated based on available geological, geophysical, tectonic and earthquake data for seismic hazard assessment of the country. In practice, two key assumptions are considered; first, the assumption of earthquake repeatedness, implying that major earthquakes occur preferentially near the sites of previous earthquakes; second, the assumption of tectonic analogy, which implies that structures of analogous tectonic setting are capable of generating same size earthquakes. A two-step procedure is applied for delineation of seismic sources: first, demarcation of seismotectonic provinces; second, determination of potential seismic sources. Preferentially, potential seismic sources are modeled as area sources, in which the configuration of each source zone is controlled, mainly, by the extent of active faults, the mechanism of earthquake faultings and the seismogenic part of the crust. 相似文献