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1.
Data on riverine fluxes are essential for calculating element cycles (carbon, nutrients, pollutants) and erosion rates from regional to global scales. At most water‐quality stations throughout the world, riverine fluxes are calculated from continuous flow data (q) and discrete concentration data (C), the latter being the main cause of sometimes large uncertainties. This article offers a comprehensive approach for predicting the magnitude of these uncertainties for water‐quality stations in medium to large basins (drainage basin area > 1000 km²) based on the commonly used discharge‐weighted method. Uncertainty levels – biases and imprecisions – for sampling intervals of 3 to 60 days are correlated first through a nomograph with a flux variability indicator, the quantity of riverine material discharged in 2% of time (M2%). In turn, M2% is estimated from the combination of a hydrological reactivity index, W2% (the cumulative flow volume discharged during the upper 2% of highest daily flow) and the truncated b50sup exponent, quantifying the concentration versus discharge relationship for the upper half of flow values (C = a q b50sup, for q > q50, where q50 is the median flow): M2% = W2% + 27.6b50sup. W2% can be calculated from continuous flow measurements, and the b50sup indicator can be calculated from infrequent sampling, which makes it possible to predict a priori the level of uncertainty at any station, for any type of riverine material either concentrated (b50sup > 0) or diluted (b50sup > 0) with flow. A large data base of daily surveys, 125 station variables of suspended particulate matter (SPM), total dissolved solids (TDS) and dissolved and particulate nutrients, was used to determine uncertainties from simulated discrete surveys and to establish relationships between indicators. Results show, for example, that for the same relatively reactive basin (W2% > 25%), calculated fluxes from monthly sampling would yield uncertainties approaching ±100% for SPM (b50sup > 1.4) fluxes and ±10% for TDS (b50sup = ?0.2). The application to the nitrate survey of the river Seine shows significant trends for the 1972–2009 records. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract

In discrete water quality surveys, riverine fluxes are associated with unknown uncertainties (biases and imprecisions). Annual flux errors have been determined from the generation of discrete surveys by Monte Carlo sorting for monthly sampling, from 10 years of daily records (120 records). Eight calculation methods were tested for suspended particulate matter, dissolved solids and dissolved and total nutrients in medium to large basins (103 to 106 km2) covering a wide range of hydrological conditions and riverine biogeochemistry. The performance of each method was analysed first by type of riverine material, which appeared to be much less pertinent than the flux variability matrix. The latter combines the river flow duration in two percent of time (W2%) and the truncated exponent (b50sup) defining the relationship of concentration vs discharge (CQ) at higher flows (C = aQb50sup). As flux variability increases (high W2% and/or high b50sup), averaging and rating curve methods become less efficient compared to hydrograph separation methods. Flux biases and imprecisions were plotted in the [W2%, b50sup] matrix for discrete monthly surveys.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz

Citation Raymond, S., Moatar, F., Meybeck, M., and Bustillo, V., 2013. Choosing methods for estimating dissolved and particulate riverine fluxes from monthly sampling. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1326–1339.  相似文献   

3.
Lithological and hydrological influence on fluvial physical and chemical erosion was studied in a glacierized sedimentary basin with high evaporite presence. Suspended particulate matter (SPM), total dissolved solids (TDS) and major ion concentrations were analysed for 2 years of different hydrologic condition: (i) 2009–2010, Q = 100% average; and (ii) 2010–2011, Q = 60% average. Annual hydrograph was simple regime‐type with one peak in summer related to snow melting. The intra‐annual SPM and TDS variations were directly and inversely associated to Q, respectively. Snow chemistry showed continental influence (Na+/Ca2+ = 0.17), and atmospheric input of TDS was <1% of the total exported flux. River water was highly concentrated in Ca2+ and SO42− (~4 mmol l−1) and in Na+ and Cl (~3 mmol l−1). Ca2+/SO42− and Na+/Cl molar ratios were ~1 and related to Q, directly and inversely, respectively. Major ion relationships suggest that river chemistry is controlled by evaporite (gypsum and halite) dissolution having a summer input from sulfide oxidation and carbonate dissolution, and a winter input from subsurface flow loaded with silicate weathering products. This variation pattern resulted in nearly chemostatic behaviour for Ca+, Mg2+ and SO42−, whereas Na+, Cl and SiO2 concentrations showed to be controlled by dilution/concentration processes. During the 2009–2010 hydrological year, the fluxes of water, SPM and TDS registered in the snow melting–high Q season were, respectively, 71%, 92% and 67% of the annual total, whereas for equal period in 2010–2011, 56% of water, 86% of SPM and 54% of TDS annual fluxes were registered. The SPM fluxes for 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 were 1.19 × 106 and 0.79 × 106 t year−1, whereas TDS fluxes were 0.68 × 106 and 0.55 × 106 t year−1, respectively. Export rates for 2009–2010 were 484 t km2 year−1 for SPM and 275 t km2 year−1 for TDS. These rates are higher than those observed in glacierized granite basins and in non‐glacierized evaporite basins, suggesting a synergistic effect of lithology and glaciers on physical and chemical erosion. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Sediment rating curves, which are fitted relationships between river discharge (Q) and suspended‐sediment concentration (C), are commonly used to assess patterns and trends in river water quality. In many of these studies, it is assumed that rating curves have a power‐law form (i.e. C = aQb, where a and b are fitted parameters). Two fundamental questions about the utility of these techniques are assessed in this paper: (i) how well to the parameters, a and b, characterize trends in the data, and (ii) are trends in rating curves diagnostic of changes to river water or sediment discharge? As noted in previous research, the offset parameter, a, is not an independent variable for most rivers but rather strongly dependent on b and Q. Here, it is shown that a is a poor metric for trends in the vertical offset of a rating curve, and a new parameter, â, as determined by the discharge‐normalized power function [C = â (Q/QGM)b], where QGM is the geometric mean of the Q‐values sampled, provides a better characterization of trends. However, these techniques must be applied carefully, because curvature in the relationship between log(Q) and log(C), which exists for many rivers, can produce false trends in â and b. Also, it is shown that trends in â and b are not uniquely diagnostic of river water or sediment supply conditions. For example, an increase in â can be caused by an increase in sediment supply, a decrease in water supply or a combination of these conditions. Large changes in water and sediment supplies can occur without any change in the parameters, â and b. Thus, trend analyses using sediment rating curves must include additional assessments of the time‐dependent rates and trends of river water, sediment concentrations and sediment discharge. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

The spatial scaling properties of annual average streamflow is examined using records from 1 433 river basins across the continental United States. The log-linear relationship ln(E[Qr i]) = a + br ln(Ai) is representative throughout the United States, where E[Qr i] represents the expectation of the rth moment of annual streamflow at site i, and Ai represents drainage area. The scaling model parameters ar and br follow nearly perfect linear relationships ar = rα and br = rβ throughout the continental United States. We conclude that the probability distribution of annual streamflow follows simple scaling relationships in all regions of the United States. In temperate regions where climate is relatively homogeneous, scale alone describes most of the variability in the moments of annual streamflow. In the more climatically heterogeneous regions, such as in the Upper Colorado and Missouri river basins, scale alone is a poor predictor of the moments of annual flow.  相似文献   

6.
7.
Wind tunnel tests were conducted to examine the fetch effect of a gravel surface on the ?ux pro?le of the sand cloud blowing over it using typical dune sand. The results suggest that the ?ux pro?le of blown sand over a gravel surface differs from that over a sandy surface and is characterized by a peak ?ux at a height above the surface while that over a sandy surface decreases exponentially with height. The ?ux pro?le of a sand cloud over a gravel surface can be expressed by a Gaussian peak function: q = a + b exp (?0·5((h ? c)/d)2), where q is the sand transport rate at height h, and a, b, c and d are regression coef?cients. The signi?cance of the coef?cients in the function could be de?ned in accordance with the fetch length of the gravel surface and wind velocity. Coef?cient c represents the peak ?ux height and increases with both wind velocity and fetch length, implying that the peak ?ux height is related to the bounce height of the particles in the blowing sand cloud. Coef?cient d shows a tendency to increase with both wind velocity and fetch length. The sum of a and b, representing the peak ?ux, increases with wind velocity but decreases with fetch length. The average saltation height derived from the cumulative percentage curve shows a tendency to increase with both the fetch length and wind velocity. For any fetch length of a gravel surface the sand transport equation is expressed as Q = C(1 ? Ut/U)(ρ/g)U3, where Q is the sand transport rate, U is the wind velocity, Ut is the threshold velocity measured at the same height as U, g is the gravitational acceleration, ρ is the air density, C is a proportionality coef?cient that decreases with the fetch length of the gravel surface. At a given wind velocity, the sand transport rate over a gravel surface is only 52–68 per cent of that over a sandy surface. The ?ux rate in true creep over a gravel surface increases with wind velocity but decreases with the fetch length, whereas the creep proportion (the ratio of creep ?ux to the sand transport rate) decreases with both the wind velocity and fetch length. Two‐variable (including fetch length and wind velocity) equations were developed to predict the peak ?ux height, average saltation height and transport rate. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
In wet soils, zones of saturation naturally develop in the vicinity of impermeable strata, surface ponds and subterranean cavities. Hydrology must be then concerned with transient flow through coexisting unsaturated and saturated zones. The models of advancing saturated zones necessarily involve a nonlinear free boundary problem.A closed-form analytic solution is presented for a nonlinear diffusion model under conditions of ponding at the surface. The soil water diffusivity is restricted to the special functional form D(θ) = a/(b − θ)2, where θ is the water content field to be determined and a, b are positive constants. The explicit solution depends on a parameter C (determined by the data of the problem), according to two cases: 1 < C < C1 or CC1, where C1 is a constant which is obtained as the unique solution of an equation. This result complements the study given in P. Broadbridge, Water Resources Research, 1990, 26, 2435–2443, in order to established when the explicit solution is available. The behavior of the bifurcation parameter C1 as a function of the driving potential is studied with the corresponding limits for small and large values. Moreover, the sorptivity is proven to be continuously differentiable function of the variable C.  相似文献   

9.
Rivers are closely related to climate, and the hydrogeomorphic features and stability of river channels respond sensitively to climatic change. However, the history of instrumental observations of climatic, hydrological and channel changes is short, notably limiting our ability to understand the complex river responses to long-term climate change and human activity. In this study, we show that cave stalagmite records reflected the variations in precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River basin, and the net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation over the past 1800 years can therefore be reconstructed. We found that the reconstructed annual mean precipitation (Pm) and NPP closely related to the 1800-year variation of the lower Yellow River (LYR) channel instability indexed by the frequency of the LYR levee breaching events (LBEs) (Fb) derived from historical documents. The temporal variations in Pm, NPP and Fb exhibited an anti-phase relationship (negative correlation) and in-phase relationship (positive correlation), referred to as Type I and Type II relationships, respectively. The two types alternately appeared, dividing the studied period into several sub-periods. Type I occurred when the vegetation remained in a quasi-natural condition, and Type II occurred when the vegetation had been altered by humans to some degree. These features reflect complex river behaviours in response to climate change and human activity and may be explained by the interaction between climate, vegetation and human activity on the millennial timescale. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Recently, effects of lakes and reservoirs on river nutrient export have been incorporated into landscape biogeochemical models. Because annual export varies with precipitation, there is a need to examine the biogeochemical role of lakes and reservoirs over time frames that incorporate interannual variability in precipitation. We examined long‐term (~20 years) time series of river export (annual mass yield, Y, and flow‐weighted mean annual concentration, C) for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended sediment (TSS) from 54 catchments in Wisconsin, USA. Catchments were classified as small agricultural, large agricultural, and forested by use of a cluster analysis, and these varied in lentic coverage (percentage of catchment lake or reservoir water that was connected to river network). Mean annual export and interannual variability (CV) of export (for both Y and C) were higher in agricultural catchments relative to forested catchments for TP, TN, and TSS. In both agricultural and forested settings, mean and maximum annual TN yields were lower in the presence of lakes and reservoirs, suggesting lentic denitrification or N burial. There was also evidence of long‐term lentic TP and TSS retention, especially when viewed in terms of maximum annual yield, suggesting sedimentation during high loading years. Lentic catchments had lower interannual variability in export. For TP and TSS, interannual variability in mass yield was often >50% higher than interannual variability in water yield, whereas TN variability more closely followed water (discharge) variability. Our results indicate that long‐term mass export through rivers depends on interacting terrestrial, aquatic, and meteorological factors in which the presence of lakes and reservoirs can reduce the magnitude of export, stabilize interannual variability in export, as well as introduce export time lags. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
During four surveys at spring and neap tides in July and November 2005, continuous observations were conducted at four stations adjacent to the Changjiang (Yangtze River) mouth. The observation times lasted for 26 h that covered two consecutive semidiurnal cycles. Resuspension events and subsequently enhancements of suspended particulate matter (SPM) were commonly observed within a tidal cycle. Although nutrients (SiO32−, NO3, and PO43−) were primarily governed by salinity, their statistically significant correlations with SPM could always be extracted after partial correlation analysis. Three parameter (salinity, SPM, nutrients) regressions generally produced better results of simulating nutrient concentrations than two parameter (salinity and nutrients) regressions, although compared to the latter, the former R2 values were elevated by no more than 13%. The partial correlation between SPM and a specific nutrient could be either positive or negative in different surveys, suggesting SPM influenced the nutrients in different ways under various conditions. The minor (albeit statistically significant) impacts of highly dynamic SPM on nutrients might be ascribed to the short duration time of resuspension events and estuarine mixing process, together with the complex nature of circulation in the Changjiang plume seawater.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract

We have contrived a model E(αω) α μ?1ω?p+1(ω 2?ω i 2)?+ for the distribution of internal wave energy in horizontal wavenumber, frequency-space, with wavenumber α extending to some upper limit μ(ω) α ω r-1 (ω 2?ω i 2)½, and frequency ω extending from the inertial frequency ω i to the local Väisälä frequency n(y). The spectrum is portrayed as an equivalent continuum to which the modal structure (if it exists) is not vital. We assume horizontal isotropy, E(α, ω) = 2παE1, α2, ω), with α1, α2 designating components of α. Certain moments of E1, α2, ω) can be derived from observations. (i) Moored (or freely floating) devices measuring horizontal current u(t), vertical displacement η(t),…, yield the frequency spectra F (u,η,…)(ω) = ∫∫ (U 2, Z 2,…)E1, ∞2, ω) dα12, where U, Z,… are the appropriate wave functions. (ii) Similarly towed measurements give the wavenumber spectrum F (…)(α1) = ∫∫… dα2 dω. (iii) Moored measurements horizontally separated by X yield the coherence spectrum R(X, ω) which is related to the horizontal cosine transform ∫∫ E(α1, α2 ω) cos α1 Xdα11. (iv) Moored measurements vertically separated by Y yield R(Y, ω) and (v) towed measurements vertically separated yield R(Y, α1), and these are related to similar vertical Fourier transforms. Away from inertial frequencies, our model E(α, ω) α ω ?p-r for α ≦ μ ω ω r, yields F(ω) ∞ ω ?p, F1) ∞ α1 ?q, with q = (p + r ? 1)/r. The observed moored and towed spectra suggest p and q between 5/3 and 2, yielding r between 2/3 and 3/2, inconsistent with a value of r = 2 derived from Webster's measurements of moored vertical coherence. We ascribe Webster's result to the oceanic fine-structure. Our choice (p, q, r) = (2, 2, 1) is then not inconsistent with existing evidence. The spectrum is E(∞, ω) ∞ ω ?1(ω 2?ω i 2 ?1, and the α-bandwith μ ∞ (ω 2?ω i 2)+ is equivalent to about 20 modes. Finally, we consider the frequency-of-encounter spectra F([sgrave]) at any towing speed S, approaching F(ω) as SS o, and F1) for α1 = [sgrave]/S as SS o, where S o = 0(1 km/h) is the relevant Doppler velocity scale.  相似文献   

13.
Accumulation rates of marine and terrigenous organic carbon in the continental margin sediments off southwestern Taiwan were estimated from the measured concentrations and isotopic compositions of total organic carbon (TOC) and previously reported sedimentation rates. Surficial sediments were collected from the study area spanning from the narrow shelf near the Kaoping River mouth to the deep slope with depths reaching almost 3000 m. The average sediment loading of Kaoping River is 17 Mt/yr, which yields high sediment accumulation rates ranging from 0.08 to 1.44 g cm−2 yr−1 in the continental margin. About half of the discharged sediments were deposited on the margin within 120 km of the river mouth. Carbon isotopic compositions of terrestrial and marine end-members of organic matter were determined, respectively, based on suspended particulate matter (SPM) collected from three major rivers in the southwestern Taiwan and from an offshore station. All samples were analyzed for the TOC content and its isotopic composition (δ13Corg). The SPM samples were also analyzed for the total nitrogen (TN) content. TOC content in marine sediments ranges from 0.45% to 1.35% with the highest values on the upper slope near the Kaoping River mouth. The TOC/TN ratio of the SPM samples from the offshore station is 6.8±0.6, almost identical to the Redfield ratio, indicating their predominantly marine origin; their δ13Corg values are also typically marine with a mean of −21.5±0.3‰. The riverine SPM samples exhibit typical terrestrial δ13Corg values around −25‰. The δ13Corg values of surficial sediments range from −24.8‰ to −21.2‰, showing a distribution pattern influenced by inputs from the Kaoping River. The relative contributions from marine and terrestrial sources to sedimentary organic carbon were determined by the isotope mixing model with end-member compositions derived from the riverine and marine SPM. High fluvial sediment inputs lead to efficient trapping of organic carbon over a wide range of water depth in this continental margin. The marine organic accumulation rate ranges from 1.6 to 70 g C m−2 yr−1 with an area weighted mean of 4.2 g C m−2 yr−1, which is on a par with the mean terrestrial contribution and accounts for 2.3% of mean primary production. The depth-dependent accumulation rate of marine organic carbon can be simulated with a function involving primary productivity and mineral accumulation rate, which may be applicable to other continental margins with high sedimentation rates. Away from the nearshore area, the content of terrigenous organic carbon in surficial sediments decreases with distance from the river mouth, indicating its degradation in marine environments.  相似文献   

14.
A first-order moment analysis method is introduced to evaluate the pore-water pressure variability within a hillslope due to spatial variability in saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) during rainfall. The influences of the variance of the natural logarithm of Ks(ln Ks), spatial structure anisotropy of ln Ks, and normalized vertical infiltration flux (q) on the evaluations of the pore-water pressure uncertainty are investigated. Results indicate different responses of pressure head variability in the unsaturated region and the saturated region. In the unsaturated region, a larger variance of ln Ks, a higher spatial structure anisotropy, and a smaller q lead to a larger variability in pressure head, while in the saturated region, the variability in pressure head increases with the increase of variance of ln Ks, the decrease of spatial structure anisotropy, or the increase of q. These variables have great impacts on the range of fluctuation of the phreatic surface within the hillslope. The influences of these three variables on the variance of pressure head within the saturated region are greater than those within the unsaturated region, and the variance of ln Ks has the greatest impact. These results yield useful insight into the effects of heterogeneity on pressure head and uncertainty associated with predicted flow field.  相似文献   

15.
Alaa A. Masoud 《水文研究》2013,27(20):2987-3002
Eighteen groundwater well sites located in Kafr Al‐Zayat (Egypt) were sampled monthly from January 2009 to November 2011 for microbial content, Mn+2, Fe+2, total dissolved solids (TDS), total hardness, NO3?, and turbidity. The data were analyzed combining the integrated use of factor and cluster analyses as well as the geostatistical semi‐variogram modeling. The prime objectives were to assess the groundwater suitability for drinking, to document the factors governing the spatio‐tempral variability, and to recognize distinctive groundwater quality patterns to help enable effective sustainability and proactive management of the limited resource. The groundwater microbial, Mn+2, Fe+2, TDS, and total hardness contents violated the drinking water local standards while the turbidity and the nitrate content complied with them. Factor analysis indicated that the microbial content is the most influential factor raising the variability potential followed, in decreasing order, by Mn2+, Fe2+, TDS, NO3?, turbidity, and finally the total hardness. Turbidity resulting from urban and agricultural runoff was strongly associated with most of the quality parameters. Quality parameters fluctuate sporadically without concrete pattern in space and time while their variability scores peak in November every year. Three spatially distinctive quality patterns were recognized that were consistent with and affected by the cumulative effects of the local topography, depth to water table, thickness of the silty clay (cap layer), surface water, and groundwater flow direction and hence the recharge from contaminated surface canals and agricultural drains. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Flow liquefaction and cyclic mobility are two different phenomena that are encountered during strong earthquakes. Flow liquefaction is associated with the contractive behavior of loose granular materials and cyclic mobility is associated with the dilative response of both loose and dense granular materials at low confining stresses. These two types of response pertain to the same material and therefore should be modeled in a consistent manner. Whether a soil in a given state exhibits contractive or dilative behavior is dependent on its dilatancy, d=dvp/dqp. A form of the dilatancy d=d(η,ψ,C) is proposed, where η=q/p is the stress ratio, and ψ and C denote the internal state variables and the intrinsic properties, respectively. It has been shown that such a state-dependent dilatancy is effective in describing both the contractive and dilative behavior. This allows the soil behavior associated with flow liquefaction and cyclic mobility during earthquakes to be modeled in a unified way.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract

The effects of land use on river water chemistry in a typical karst watershed (Wujiang River) of southwest China have been evaluated. Dissolved major ions and Sr isotopic compositions were determined in 11 independent sub-watersheds of the Wujiang River to investigate the spatio-temporal variations in river water chemistry and their relationship to land use. The results show significant spatial variability in pH, major ions, total dissolved solids (TDS), and Sr isotopic compositions throughout the basin. Correlation analysis indicates that nitrogen content is significantly related to forest coverage. Nitrogen and potassium generally have higher values in the rainy season, and the percentage of agricultural land controlled NO3- levels, which originate from anthropogenic sources. Forest cover, which varies between 35% and 71%, has no statistically significant impact on river solute concentrations, but the TDS flux is low in sub-watersheds with greater forest cover. Geological sources have a significant influence on pH and Sr isotopic compositions in river water throughout the basin.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Han, G., Li, F., and Tan, Q., 2014. Effects of land use on water chemistry in a river draining karst terrain, southwest China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 1063–1073.  相似文献   

18.
Stable isotopic (δDVSMOW and δ18OVSMOW) and geochemical signatures were employed to constrain the geochemical evolution and sources of groundwater recharge in the arid Shule River Basin, Northwestern China, where extensive groundwater extraction occurs for agricultural and domestic supply. Springs in the mountain front of the Qilian Mountains, the Yumen‐Tashi groundwater (YTG), and the Guazhou groundwater (GZG) were Ca‐HCO3, Ca‐Mg‐HCO3‐SO4 and Na‐Mg‐SO4‐Cl type waters, respectively. Total dissolved solids (TDS) and major ion (Mg2+, Na+, Ca2+, K+, SO42?, Cl? and NO3?) concentrations of groundwater gradually increase from the mountain front to the lower reaches of the Guazhou Basin. Geochemical evolution in groundwater was possibly due to a combination of mineral dissolution, mixing processes and evapotranspiration along groundwater flow paths. The isotopic and geochemical variations in melt water, springs, river water, YTG and GZG, together with the end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) indicate that the springs in the mountain front mainly originate from precipitation, the infiltration of melt water and river in the upper reaches; the lateral groundwater from the mountain front and river water in the middle reaches are probably effective recharge sources for the YTG, while contribution of precipitation to YTG is extremely limited; the GZG is mainly recharged by lateral groundwater flow from the Yumen‐Tashi Basin and irrigation return flow. The general characteristics of groundwater in the Shule River Basin have been initially identified, and the results should facilitate integrated management of groundwater and surface water resources in the study area. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
This study proposes a statistically based procedure to quantify the confidence interval (CI) to be associated to the stages forecast by a simple model called STAge FOrecasting Model‐Rating Curve Model (STAFOM‐RCM). This model can be used for single river reaches characterized by different intermediate drainage areas and mean wave travel times when real‐time stage records, cross section surveys and rating curves are available at both ends. The model requires, at each time of forecast, an estimate of the lateral contribution qfor between the two sections delimiting the reach. The CI of the stage is provided by analyzing the statistical properties of model output in terms of lateral flow, and it is derived from the CI of the lateral contribution qfor which, in turn, is set up by associating to each qfor the qopt which allows STAFOM‐RCM to reproduce the exact observed stage. From an operative point of view, the qfor values are ranked in order of magnitude and subdivided in classes where the qopt values can be represented through normal distributions of proper mean and variance from which an interval of selected confidence level for qfor is computed and transferred to the stage. Three river reaches of the Tiber river, in central Italy, are used as case study. A sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to identify the minimum calibration set of flood events. The CIs obtained are consistent with the level of confidence selected and have practical utility. An interesting aspect is that different CI widths can be produced for the same forecast stage since they depend on the estimate of qfor made at the time of forecast. Overall, the proposed procedure for CI estimate is simple and can be conveniently adapted for other forecasting models provided that they have physically based parameters which need to be updated during the forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Based on rainfall erosion of soil and suspended sediment transport in storm events, a method is proposed to predict peak suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment yield in watersheds based on rainfall characteristics prior to peak rainfall intensity. The rainfall characteristics factors that dominate peak suspended sediment concentration Cp are rainfall erosion factor Ref, first peak rainfall intensity of area-average rainfall ip1 and antecedent precipitation index Iap; the rainfall characteristics factors that dominate suspended sediment yield Yss in storm events are total rainfall P, suspended sediment yield factor Rsf and antecedent precipitation index Iap. This research focuses on watersheds in Liau-Kwei observation station along Lao-Nung River in southern Taiwan as the research object, and adopts the PSED-model to simulate the discharge hydrograph, suspended sediment concentration hydrograph and suspended sediment yield in 11 storm events for analysis. The analytical results show that there is a good correlation between the above-mentioned rainfall characteristics factors and Cp as well as Yss, thus enabling Cp and Yss to be predicted by using Expressions (13) and (14). These two expressions are utilized to predict Cp and Yss of Typhoon Morakot in 2009, and the results are compared with those from simulation by using the PSED-model. The result of comparison shows there is a good capability in predicting. For the watersheds where it is necessary to predict Cp and Yss of a storm event for the benefit of effective operation of water resource facilities, the aforesaid rainfall characteristics factors can be utilized to establish applicable models for prediction.  相似文献   

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