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1.
在工程场地地震动的研究中 ,一维场地地震反应计算是一种常用的方法 ,但在计算模型、土层参数和输入地震动等环节上均存在不同程度的不确定性。本文较系统地回顾与总结了有关场地地震反应分析不确定性研究的历史和现状 ,在此基础上重点研究了土参数不确定性对场地地震反应分析的影响。本项研究首先探讨了土层剪切波速、厚度、密度以及非线性特性等的不确定性问题 ,在详细讨论分析以往的统计结果和计算方法的基础上 ,给出了土参数不确定性模型的合理估计 ,建立了土参数随机分布模型。考虑到一次二阶矩方法的精度不高 ,而且一般只适用于小参数…  相似文献   

2.
选取欧洲强震记录数据库中,同一台站记录到的两次地震以及两个不同台站记录到的同一地震的强震记录,分析了它们的PGA比值、卓越频率和反应谱的不确定性以及不确定性对结构反应的影响,得出:影响地震动不确定性的因素主要有震源机制、地震波传播途径、场地类别等。在此基础上,进一步分析了地震动不确定性对结构反应的影响。  相似文献   

3.
探讨了在工程场地地震安全性评价的地震反应分析模型中,江苏省盐城地区部分工程场地内深度超过100m时剪切波速仍小于500m/s的控制性深孔,采用近似估算方法弥补所缺波速值和确定地震输入界面后,进行波速值和地震输入界面位置的不确定性对工程场地地震反应的影响研究,包括地表地震动峰值加速度和反应谱特征周期等,为其他地区控制性深孔的地震输入界面位置的确定方法和影响研究提供参考。  相似文献   

4.
针对液化场地多跨简支桩基桥梁体系,考虑地震随机性的不确定性和认知的不确定性,结合地震危险性曲线自身的不确定性,推导性态指标危险性曲线的解析表达式。利用地震动强度指标PGV/PGA,输入不同幅值的地震动,进行液化场地多跨桩基桥梁体系地震反应有限元分析。基于有限元数值分析结果,选取地震过程中关键位置位移和弯矩的最大值作为性态指标的响应,通过在双对数坐标下进行线性拟合,得到不同性态指标的地震需求模型和地震危险性曲线,进而分析其响应特性。此工作可为同类桥梁工程抗震设计提供必要的参考和借鉴。  相似文献   

5.
震害资料显示,场地条件对地震动特性以及工程结构破坏程度影响显著。为减少因场地效应而造成的经济损失和社会影响,在进行场地地震反应分析时,需最大限度地减小因场地土层模型参数的不确定性引起的地震动评估偏差,为工程结构地震反应分析选取并生成适当的地震动输入。随着强震动观测技术的逐渐发展,大量可靠的钻井台阵记录为地震过程中场地观测点的动力反应提供了直接数据。以美国加州地区La Cienega钻井台阵强震动观测数据为基础,利用互相关函数,对不同强度地震作用下场地土层的平均剪切波速进行分析,并在此基础上,以Cyclic 1D为模拟平台,建立一维自由场地地震反应有限元分析模型。分析结果表明:通过钻井台阵地震动观测数据识别,得到场地平均剪切波速,能够反映该场地的动力特性,数值模拟计算结果和台阵地震动记录基本吻合,可为数值模型参数选取提供依据。  相似文献   

6.
剪切波速不确定性对场地地震反应具有显著的影响。基于不同场地类别的228个实际工程场地剖面,采用一维等效线性化波动分析程序LSSRLI-1。研究了不同地震动输入下土层剪切波速的不确定性对地表反应谱平台值的影响;提出了用地表反应谱平台值变化率表征剪切波速的不确定性引起的地表反应谱平台值的相对改变量;建立了地表反应谱平台值变化率与剪切波速变异率之间的函数关系;建议了考虑土层剪切波速的不确定性对地表反应谱平台值影响的修正公式,并给出了相应的修正系数,所得到的成果为工程抗震设计定量考虑剪切波速的不确定性对地表反应谱平台值的影响提供了科学依据。  相似文献   

7.
张跃  王光远 《地震学报》1995,17(2):223-229
抗震结构设计的地震荷载主要取决于预测地震烈度和场地土类别.地震干扰不仅具有明显随机性,而且还具有强烈的模糊性.产生模糊性的原因是由于地震烈度和场地土等级不可能有精确的定义和评定标准所引起的.在对受这种模糊随机地震干扰的结构系统作现实的分析和设计时,必须协调地和合理地处理这种由随机性与模糊性同时引起的不确定性.本文首先建立了地震地面运动的平稳与非平稳过滤白噪声模糊随机过程模型,然后应用我们建立的模糊随机动力系统理论(张跃,1991;张跃、王光远,1993),提出了单自由度体系和多自由度体系的模糊随机地震反应的分析方法.   相似文献   

8.
核设施地震危险性估计中的几个问题   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
胡聿贤 《地震地质》1993,15(4):308-316
总结了地震安全性估计方法的现状与发展趋势,指出我国在用确定性方法确定设计地震动时,有些不确定性并未考虑,不少主观决定并非总是足够安全的。文中推荐了概率方法。场地影响分析中,特别是座落于软基上的核设施,需要对输入面的选择及土层反应分析中的多种不确定因素进行考虑。最后指出场地地震相关反应谱对座落于软基上的核设施的重要意义,以及大远震与小近震对反应谱的不同影响  相似文献   

9.
波速测试结果在工程上的应用越来越重要,但波速测试结果的不确定性一直影响着抗震设计。为了准确地描述这一不确定性,对较深软场地的地震响应进行了计算。采用Shake 2000程序,通过输入不同类型的多种强度的地震波,研究了较深软场地的多种工况下剪切波速测试标准差对地表加速度反应谱和峰值加速度的影响。结果表明,较深软场地上的波速测试标准差对场地的加速度反应谱和峰值加速度基本没有影响;不同地震强度下的反应谱和峰值加速度的变化,基本可以忽略。随着波速测试数据量的增加,本文研究结果还有待进一步的深入与完善。  相似文献   

10.
本文对场地土按分层弹性地基土建立了合理的力学模型,通过动力分析,给出了分层弹性地基场地土扭转自振特性及在扭转地震载荷作用下强迫反应的解析解,文中的解析公式为分层弹性的基场地土扭转地震反应分析提供了一种新的解析方法.  相似文献   

11.
This paper deals with the transient response of a non‐linear dynamical system with random uncertainties. The non‐parametric probabilistic model of random uncertainties recently published and extended to non‐linear dynamical system analysis is used in order to model random uncertainties related to the linear part of the finite element model. The non‐linearities are due to restoring forces whose parameters are uncertain and are modeled by the parametric approach. Jayne's maximum entropy principle with the constraints defined by the available information allows the probabilistic model of such random variables to be constructed. Therefore, a non‐parametric–parametric formulation is developed in order to model all the sources of uncertainties in such a non‐linear dynamical system. Finally, a numerical application for earthquake engineering analysis is proposed concerning a reactor cooling system under seismic loads. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
IntroductionTodetermineaseismicdesignstandard,examineaseismicdesignorpredictseismicdamage,theparametersofgroundmotioneventim...  相似文献   

13.
本文给出了自重和地震作用下核电厂混凝土安全壳的可靠性分析方法。首先基于半解析有限环元法和随机振型分析法,用首超概率给出了给定系统参数时安全壳的条件极限状态概率,然后基于此概率用推广的一次二阶矩法求解了考虑系统参数不确定性的安全壳极限状态概率。一个预应力混凝土安全壳的实例分析表明,系统参数的不确定性对安全壳的可靠性有重要影响。  相似文献   

14.
Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) has been extended by introducing a set of structural models in addition to the set of ground motion records which is employed in IDA analysis in order to capture record‐to‐record variability. The set of structural models reflects epistemic (modeling) uncertainties, and is determined by utilizing the latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The effects of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty on seismic response parameters are therefore considered in extended IDA analysis. The proposed method has been applied to an example of the four‐storey‐reinforced concrete frame, for which pseudo‐dynamic tests were performed at the ELSA Laboratory, Ispra. The influence of epistemic uncertainty on the seismic response parameters is presented in terms of summarized IDA curves and dispersion measures. The results of extended IDA analysis are compared with the results of IDA analysis, and the sensitivity of the seismic response parameters to the input random variable using the LHS method is discussed. It is shown that epistemic uncertainty does not have significant influence on the seismic response parameters in the range far from collapse, but could have a significant influence on collapse capacity. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
This paper addresses the problem of identification of the modal parameters for a structural system using measured non‐stationary response time histories only. A Bayesian time‐domain approach is presented which is based on an approximation of the probability distribution of the response to a non‐stationary stochastic excitation. It allows one to obtain not only the most probable values of the updated modal parameters and stochastic excitation parameters but also their associated uncertainties using only one set of response data. It is found that the updated probability distribution can be well approximated by a Gaussian distribution centred at the most probable values of the parameters. Examples using simulated data are presented to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
多层住宅砖房的地震易损性分析   总被引:5,自引:2,他引:5  
本文采用概率方法借助于拉丁超立方采样技术和非线性地震反应过程分析对多层住宅砖房的地震易损性进行分析。其分析样本是根据多层住宅砖房目前常用设计参数值的范围选定参数的代表值,并由这些代表值构成的;分析中考虑了地震荷载、结构反应和结构承载力的不确定性。易损性曲线分别对五个不同结构破坏程度的极限状态给出。  相似文献   

17.
A new probabilistic model identification methodology is proposed using measured response time histories only. The proposed approach requires that the number of independent measurements is larger than the number of independent excitations. Under this condition, no input measurements or any information regarding the stochastic model of the input is required. Specifically, the method does not require the response to be stationary and does not assume any knowledge of the parametric form of the spectral density of the input. Therefore, the method has very wide applicability. The proposed approach allows one to obtain not only the most probable values of the updated model parameters but also their associated uncertainties using only one set of response data. It is found that the updated probability distribution can be well approximated by a Gaussian distribution centered at the most probable values of the parameters. Examples are presented to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. However, there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes. Therefore, we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation, and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method. This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves. It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications. We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area, and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finite-fault simulation. Finally, we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively. The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels. These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam, thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters.  相似文献   

19.
The problem of identification of the modal parameters of a structural model using measured ambient response time histories is addressed. A Bayesian spectral density approach (BSDA) for modal updating is presented which uses the statistical properties of a spectral density estimator to obtain not only the optimal values of the updated modal parameters but also their associated uncertainties by calculating the posterior joint probability distribution of these parameters. Calculation of the uncertainties of the identified modal parameters is very important if one plans to proceed with the updating of a theoretical finite element model based on modal estimates. It is found that the updated PDF of the modal parameters can be well approximated by a Gaussian distribution centred at the optimal parameters at which the posterior PDF is maximized. Examples using simulated data are presented to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The last decade of performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE) research has seen a rapidly increasing emphasis placed on the explicit quantification of uncertainties. This paper examines uncertainty consideration in input ground‐motion and numerical seismic response analyses as part of PBEE, with particular attention given to the physical consistency and completeness of uncertainty consideration. It is argued that the use of the commonly adopted incremental dynamic analysis leads to a biased representation of the seismic intensity and that when considering the number of ground motions to be used in seismic response analyses, attention should be given to both reducing parameter estimation uncertainty and also limiting ground‐motion selection bias. Research into uncertainties in system‐specific numerical seismic response analysis models to date has been largely restricted to the consideration of ‘low‐level’ constitutive model parameter uncertainties. However, ‘high‐level’ constitutive model and model methodology uncertainties are likely significant and therefore represent a key research area in the coming years. It is also argued that the common omission of high‐level seismic response analysis modelling uncertainties leads to a fallacy that ground‐motion uncertainty is more significant than numerical modelling uncertainty. The author's opinion of the role of uncertainty analysis in PBEE is also presented. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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