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1.
Ash clouds are one of the major hazards that result from volcanic eruptions. Once an eruption is reported, volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models are used to forecast the location of the ash cloud. These models require source parameters to describe the ash column for initialization. These parameters include: eruption cloud height and vertical distribution, particle size distribution, and start and end time of the eruption. Further, if downwind concentrations are needed, the eruption mass rate and/or volume of ash need to be known. Upon notification of an eruption, few constraints are typically available on many of these source parameters. Recently, scientists have defined classes of eruption types, each with a set of pre-defined eruption source parameters (ESP). We analyze the August 18, 1992 eruption of the Crater Peak vent at Mount Spurr, Alaska, which is the example case for the Medium Silicic eruption type. We have evaluated the sensitivity of two of the ESP – the grain size distribution (GSD) and the vertical distribution of ash – on the modeled ash cloud. HYSPLIT and Puff VATD models are used to simulate the ash clouds from the different sets of source parameters. We use satellite data, processed through the reverse absorption method, as reference for computing statistics that describe the modeled-to-observed comparison. With the grain size distribution, the three options chosen, (1) an estimated distribution based on past eruption studies, (2) a distribution with finer particles and (3) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration HYSPLIT GSD, have little effect on the modeled ash cloud. For the initial vertical distribution, both linear (uniform concentration throughout the vertical column) and umbrella shapes were chosen. For HYSPLIT, the defined umbrella distribution (no ash below the umbrella), apparently underestimates the lower altitude portions of the ash cloud and as a result has a worse agreement with the satellite detected ash cloud compared to that with the linear vertical distribution for this particular eruption. The Puff model, with a Poisson function to represent the umbrella cloud, gave similar results as for a linear distribution, both having reasonable agreement with the satellite detected cloud. Further sensitivity studies of this eruption, as well as studies using the other source parameters, are needed.  相似文献   

2.
The maximum height attained by a volcanic eruption cloud is principally determined by the convective buoyancy of the mixture of volcanic gas + entrained air + fine-sized pyroclasts within the cloud. The thermal energy supplied to convection processes within an eruption cloud is derived from the cooling of pyroclastic material and volcanic gases discharged by an explosive eruption. Observational data from six recent eruptions indicates that the maximum height attained by volcanic eruption clouds is positively correlated with the rate at which pyroclastic material is produced by an explosive eruption (correlation coefficient r = + 0.97). The ascent of industrial hot gas plumes is also governed by the thermal convection process. Empirical scaling relationships between plume height and thermal flux have been developed for industrial plumes. Applying these scaling relationships to volcanic eruption clouds suggests that the rate at which thermal energy is released into the atmosphere by an explosive eruption increases in an approximately linear manner as an eruption's pyroclastic production rate increases.  相似文献   

3.
Volcanic plumes interact with the wind at all scales. On smaller scales, wind affects local eddy structure; on larger scales, wind shapes the entire plume trajectory. The polar jets or jetstreams are regions of high [generally eastbound] winds that span the globe from 30 to 60° in latitude, centered at an altitude of about 10 km. They can be hundreds of kilometers wide, but as little as 1 km in thickness. Core windspeeds are up to 130 m/s. Modern transcontinental and transoceanic air routes are configured to take advantage of the jetstream. Eastbound commercial jets can save both time and fuel by flying within it; westbound aircraft generally seek to avoid it.Using both an integral model of plume motion that is formulated within a plume-centered coordinate system (BENT) as well as the Active Tracer High-resolution Atmospheric Model (ATHAM), we have calculated plume trajectories and rise heights under different wind conditions. Model plume trajectories compare well with the observed plume trajectory of the Sept 30/Oct 1, 1994, eruption of Kliuchevskoi Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia, for which measured maximum windspeed was 30–40 m/s at about 12 km. Tephra fall patterns for some prehistoric eruptions of Avachinsky Volcano, Kamchatka, and Inyo Craters, CA, USA, are anomalously elongated and inconsistent with simple models of tephra dispersal in a constant windfield. The Avachinsky deposit is modeled well by BENT using a windspeed that varies with height.Two potentially useful conclusions can be made about air routes and volcanic eruption plumes under jetstream conditions. The first is that by taking advantage of the jetstream, aircraft are flying within an airspace that is also preferentially occupied by volcanic eruption clouds and particles. The second is that, because eruptions with highly variable mass eruption rate pump volcanic particles into the jetstream under these conditions, it is difficult to constrain the tephra grain size distribution and mass loading present within a downwind volcanic plume or cloud that has interacted with the jetstream. Furthermore, anomalously large particles and high mass loadings could be present within the cloud, if it was in fact formed by an eruption with a high mass eruption rate. In terms of interpretation of tephra dispersal patterns, the results suggest that extremely elongated isopach or isopleth patterns may often be the result of eruption into the jetstream, and that estimation of the mass eruption rate from these elongated patterns should be considered cautiously.  相似文献   

4.
The Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption, which occurred on April 14, 2010, caused many environmental, air traffic and health problems. An attempt has been made to demonstrate for the first time that certain improvements could be made in the quantitative prediction of the volcanic ash parameters, and in the accounting of the processes in the immediate vicinity of the volcano, using a cloud-resolving model. This type of explicit modeling by treatment of volcanic ash and sulfate chemistry parameterization, with input of a number parameters describing the volcanic source, is the way forward for understanding the complex processes in plumes and in the future plume dispersion modeling. Results imply that the most significant microphysical processes are those related to accretion of cloud water, cloud ice and rainwater by snow, and accretion of rain and snow by hail. The dominant chemical conversion rates that give a great contribution to the sulfate budget are nucleation and dynamic scavenging and oxidation processes. A three-dimensional numerical experiment has shown a very realistic simulation of volcanic ash and other chemical compounds evolution, with a sloping structure strongly influenced by the meteorological conditions. In-cloud oxidation by H2O2 is the dominant pathway for SO2 oxidation and allows sulfate to be produced within the SO2 source region. The averaged cloud water pH of about 5.8 and rainwater pH of 4.5 over simulation time show quantitatively how the oxidation may strongly influence the sulfate budget and acidity of volcanic cloud. Compared to observations, model results are close in many aspects. Information on the near field volcanic plume behavior is essential for early preparedness and evacuation. This approach demonstrates a potential improvement in quantitative predictions regarding the volcanic plume distribution at different altitudes. It could be a useful tool for modeling volcanic plumes for better emergency measures planning.  相似文献   

5.
Volcanic ash fallout represents a serious threat to people living near active volcanoes because it can produce several undesirable effects such as collapse of roofs by ash loading, respiratory sickness, air traffic disruption, or damage to agriculture. The assessment of such volcanic risk is therefore an issue of vital importance for public safety and its mitigation often requires to evaluate the temporal evolution of the phenomenon through reliable computational models.We develop an Eulerian model, named FALL3D, for the transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. The model is based on the advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation with a turbulent diffusion given by the gradient transport theory, a wind field obtained from a meteorological limited area model (LAM) and the source term derived from by buoyant plume theory. It can be used to forecast either ash concentration in the atmosphere or ash loading on the ground. Model inputs are topography, meteorological data given by a LAM, mass eruption rate, and a particle settling velocity distribution. A test application to the July 2001 Etna eruption is presented.  相似文献   

6.
During volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDs) are used to forecast the location and movement of ash clouds over hours to days in order to define hazards to aircraft and to communities downwind. Those models use input parameters, called “eruption source parameters”, such as plume height H, mass eruption rate Ṁ, duration D, and the mass fraction m63 of erupted debris finer than about 4 or 63 μm, which can remain in the cloud for many hours or days. Observational constraints on the value of such parameters are frequently unavailable in the first minutes or hours after an eruption is detected. Moreover, observed plume height may change during an eruption, requiring rapid assignment of new parameters. This paper reports on a group effort to improve the accuracy of source parameters used by VATDs in the early hours of an eruption. We do so by first compiling a list of eruptions for which these parameters are well constrained, and then using these data to review and update previously studied parameter relationships. We find that the existing scatter in plots of H versus Ṁ yields an uncertainty within the 50% confidence interval of plus or minus a factor of four in eruption rate for a given plume height. This scatter is not clearly attributable to biases in measurement techniques or to well-recognized processes such as elutriation from pyroclastic flows. Sparse data on total grain-size distribution suggest that the mass fraction of fine debris m63 could vary by nearly two orders of magnitude between small basaltic eruptions ( 0.01) and large silicic ones (> 0.5). We classify eleven eruption types; four types each for different sizes of silicic and mafic eruptions; submarine eruptions; “brief” or Vulcanian eruptions; and eruptions that generate co-ignimbrite or co-pyroclastic flow plumes. For each eruption type we assign source parameters. We then assign a characteristic eruption type to each of the world's  1500 Holocene volcanoes. These eruption types and associated parameters can be used for ash-cloud modeling in the event of an eruption, when no observational constraints on these parameters are available.  相似文献   

7.
Volcanic eruptions produce ash clouds, which are a major hazard to population centers and the aviation community. Within the North Pacific (NOPAC) region, there have been numerous volcanic ash clouds that have reached aviation routes. Others have closed airports and traveled for thousands of kilometers. Being able to detect these ash clouds and then provide an assessment of their potential movement is essential for hazard assessment and mitigation. Remote sensing satellite data, through the reverse absorption or split window method, is used to detect these volcanic ash clouds, with a negative signal produced from spectrally semi-transparent ash clouds. Single channel satellite is used to detect the early eruption spectrally opaque ash clouds. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models are used to provide a forecast of the ash clouds' future location. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) remote sensing ash detection system automatically analyzes satellite data of volcanic ash clouds, detecting new ash clouds and also providing alerts, both email and text, to those with AVO. However, there are also non-volcanic related features across the NOPAC region that can produce a negative signal. These can complicate alerts and warning of impending ash clouds. Discussions and examples are shown of these non-volcanic features and some analysis is provided on how these features can be discriminated from volcanic ash clouds. Finally, there is discussion on how information of the ash cloud such as location, particle size and concentrations, could be used as VATD model initialization. These model forecasts could then provide an improved assessment of the clouds' future movement.  相似文献   

8.
Ash produced by a volcanic eruption on Iceland can be hazardous for both the transatlantic flight paths and European airports and airspace. In order to begin to quantify the risk to aircraft, this study explored the probability of ash from a short explosive eruption of Hekla Volcano (63.98°N, 19.7°W) reaching European airspace. Transport, dispersion and deposition of the ash cloud from a three hour ‘explosive’ eruption with an initial plume height of 12 km was simulated using the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment, NAME, the model used operationally by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Eruptions were simulated over a six year period, from 2003 until 2008, and ash clouds were tracked for four days following each eruption.Results showed that a rapid spread of volcanic ash is possible, with all countries in Europe facing the possibility of an airborne ash concentration exceeding International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) limits within 24 h of an eruption. An additional high impact, low probability event which could occur is the southward spread of the ash cloud which would block transatlantic flights approaching and leaving Europe. Probabilities of significant concentrations of ash are highest to the east of Iceland, with probabilities exceeding 20% in most countries north of 50°N. Deposition probabilities were highest at Scottish and Scandinavian airports. There is some seasonal variability in the probabilities; ash is more likely to reach southern Europe in winter when the mean winds across the continent are northerly. Ash concentrations usually remain higher for longer during summer when the mean wind speeds are lower.  相似文献   

9.
Landsat satellite images were selected for the analysis of a tephraladen eruption cloud and a volcanic fume cloud. A 35 km long eruption plume from Sakurazima Volcano, Kyushu, Japan was viewed by the satellite on December 2, 1972. Multispectral Scanner (MSS) band 4 was density sliced into eight levels. Grey levels over the tephra-laden cumulus, which had formed at the terminus of the eruption plume, were distinct from most of the nearby cumulus clouds. MSS band 4 is the key band for identifying eruption clouds in overcast volcanic regions. A lume cloud from Stromboli, Italy was studied in the same manner. It is easily identified over land areas and for 8 km over water in areas of clear sky, but cannot be distinguished from banks of cumulus clouds.  相似文献   

10.
PUFF and HAZMAP, two tephra dispersal models developed for volcanic hazard mitigation, are used to simulate the climatic 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. PUFF simulations indicate that the majority of ash was advected away from the source at the level of the tropopause (~ 17 km). Several eruptive pulses injected ash and SO2 gas to higher altitudes (~ 25 km), but these pulses represent only a small fraction (~ 1%) of the total erupted material released during the simulation. Comparison with TOMS images of the SO2 cloud after 71 and 93 h indicate that the SO2 gas originated at an altitude of ~ 25 km near the source and descended to an altitude of ~ 22 km as the cloud moved across the Indian Ocean. HAZMAP simulations indicate that the Pinatubo tephra fall deposit in the South China Sea was formed by an eruption cloud with the majority of the ash concentrated at a height of 16–18 km. Results of this study demonstrate that the largest concentration of distal ash was transported at a level significantly below the maximum eruption column height (~ 40 km) and at a level below the calculated height of neutral buoyancy (~ 25 km). Simulations showed that distal ash transport was dominated by atmospheric circulation patterns near the regional tropopause. In contrast, the movement of the SO2 cloud occurred at higher levels, along slightly different trajectories, and may have resulted from gas/particle segregations that took place during intrusion of the Pinatubo umbrella cloud as it moved away from source.  相似文献   

11.
Forecasting exposure to volcanic ash based on ash dispersion modeling   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
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12.
Reducing discrepancies in ground and satellite-observed eruption heights   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
The plume height represents a crucial piece of evidence about an eruption, feeding later assessment of its size, character, and potential impact, and feeding real-time warnings for aviation and ground-based populations. There have been many observed discrepancies between different observations of maximum plume height for the same eruption. A comparison of maximum daily height estimates of volcanic clouds over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea during 1982–2005 shows marked differences between ground and satellite estimates, and a general tendency towards lower height estimates from the ground. Without improvements in the quality of these estimates, reconciled among all available methods, warning systems will be less effective than they should be and the world's record of global volcanism will remain hard to quantify. Examination of particular cases suggests many possible reasons for the discrepancies. Consideration of the satellite and radar cloud observations for the 1991 Pinatubo eruptions shows that marked differences can exist even with apparently good observations. The problem can be understood largely as a sampling issue, as the most widely reported parameter, the maximum cloud height, is highly sensitive to the frequency of observation. Satellite and radar cloud heights also show a pronounced clumping near the height of the tropopause and relative lack of eruptions reaching only the mid-troposphere, reinforcing the importance of the tropopause in determining the eruption height in convectively unstable environments. To reduce the discrepancies between ground and satellite estimates, a number of formal collaboration measures between vulcanological, meteorological and aviation agencies are suggested.  相似文献   

13.
The dispersal of volcanic ash from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH) has been simulated using the Lagrangian ash-tracking model PUFF. Previous applications of the model were limited to smaller, short-lived eruptions with ash dispersal occurring mainly within the troposphere. Two high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR-40) allowed MSH ash cloud dispersal to be simulated up to 30 km elevation. The 1980 eruption was divided into two distinct eruptive phases, (1) an initial, relatively short-lived blast/surge phase that injected ash up to 30 km and (2) a subsequent nine-hour plinian phase that maintained an average eruption column height of 16 km. Using PUFF, the two phases of the MSH eruption were modeled separately based on a range of individual input parameters and then combined to produce an integrated simulation of the entire eruption. The trajectory and areal extent of the modeled atmospheric ash cloud best match the actual distribution of MSH ash when input parameters are set to values inferred from satellite and radar data collected on May 18, 1980. The prevailing wind field exerts the strongest control on the advection and ultimate position of the modeled ash cloud, making the maximum column height and the vertical distribution of ash the most sensitive of the PUFF input parameters for this event. The results indicate that the PUFF model works well at simulating the dispersal of ash injected well into the lower stratosphere from a moderate, relatively long-lived eruption, such as MSH. However, attempts to use PUFF to recreate some granulometric aspects of the MSH fallout deposit, such as the maximum particle size as a function of distance from source, were not successful. PUFF consistently predicts much greater fallout distances for small ash particles (< 500 µm) than actually observed in the MSH deposit. The effective settling velocities used by the PUFF model appear to be too slow to accurately predict fallout distances of small ash particles. As a consequence the PUFF model may overestimate the duration of ash loading in the atmosphere associated with the distal fine ash component of explosive eruptions.  相似文献   

14.
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15.
The dynamics and thermodynamics of large ash flows   总被引：6，自引：6，他引：0  
 Ash flow deposits, containing up to 1000 km3 of material, have been produced by some of the largest volcanic eruptions known. Ash flows propagate several tens of kilometres from their source vents, produce extensive blankets of ash and are able to surmount topographic barriers hundreds of metres high. We present and test a new model of the motion of such flows as they propagate over a near horizontal surface from a collapsing fountain above a volcanic vent. The model predicts that for a given eruption rate, either a slow (10–100 m/s) and deep (1000–3000 m) subcritical flow or a fast (100–200 m/s) and shallow (500–1000 m) supercritical flow may develop. Subcritical ash flows propagate with a nearly constant volume flux, whereas supercritical flows entrain air and become progressively more voluminous. The run-out distance of such ash flows is controlled largely by the mass of air mixed into the collapsing fountain, the degree of fragmentation and the associated rate of loss of material into an underlying concentrated depositional system, and the mass eruption rate. However, in supercritical flows, the continued entrainment of air exerts a further important control on the flow evolution. Model predictions show that the run-out distance decreases with the mass of air entrained into the flow. Also, the mass of ash which may ascend from the flow into a buoyant coignimbrite cloud increases as more air is entrained into the flow. As a result, supercritical ash flows typically have shorter runout distances and more ash is elutriated into the associated coignimbrite eruption columns. We also show that one-dimensional, channellized ash flows typically propagate further than their radially spreading counterparts. As a Plinian eruption proceeds, the erupted mass flux often increases, leading to column collapse and the formation of pumiceous ash flows. Near the critical conditions for eruption column collapse, the flows are shed from high fountains which entrain large quantities of air per unit mass. Our model suggests that this will lead to relatively short ash flows with much of the erupted material being elutriated into the coignimbrite column. However, if the mass flux subseqently increases, then less air per unit mass is entrained into the collapsing fountain, and progressively larger flows, which propagate further from the vent, will develop. Our model is consistent with observations of a number of pyroclastic flow deposits, including the 1912 eruption of Katmai and the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. The model suggests that many extensive flow sheets were emplaced from eruptions with mass fluxes of 109–1010 kg/s over periods of 103–105 s, and that some indicators of flow "mobility" may need to be reinterpreted. Furthermore, in accordance with observations, the model predicts that the coignimbrite eruption columns produced from such ash flows rose between 20 and 40 km. Received: 25 August 1995 / Accepted: 3 April 1996  相似文献   

16.
Data on source conditions for the 14 April 2010 paroxysmal phase of the Eyjafjallaj?kull eruption, Iceland, have been used as inputs to a trajectory-based eruption column model, bent. This model has in turn been adapted to generate output suitable as input to the volcanic ash transport and dispersal model, puff, which was used to propagate the paroxysmal ash cloud toward and over Europe over the following days. Some of the source parameters, specifically vent radius, vent source velocity, mean grain size of ejecta, and standard deviation of ejecta grain size have been assigned probability distributions based on our lack of knowledge of exact conditions at the source. These probability distributions for the input variables have been sampled in a Monte Carlo fashion using a technique that yields what we herein call the polynomial chaos quadrature weighted estimate (PCQWE) of output parameters from the ash transport and dispersal model. The advantage of PCQWE over Monte Carlo is that since it intelligently samples the input parameter space, fewer model runs are needed to yield estimates of moments and probabilities for the output variables. At each of these sample points for the input variables, a model run is performed. Output moments and probabilities are then computed by properly summing the weighted values of the output parameters of interest. Use of a computational eruption column model coupled with known weather conditions as given by radiosonde data gathered near the vent allows us to estimate that initial mass eruption rate on 14 April 2010 may have been as high as 108?kg/s and was almost certainly above 107?kg/s. This estimate is consistent with the probabilistic envelope computed by PCQWE for the downwind plume. The results furthermore show that statistical moments and probabilities can be computed in a reasonable time by using 94?=?6,561 PCQWE model runs as opposed to millions of model runs that might be required by standard Monte Carlo techniques. The output mean ash cloud height plus three standard deviations??encompassing c. 99.7?% of the probability mass??compares well with four-dimensional ash cloud position as retrieved from Meteosat-9 SEVIRI data for 16 April 2010 as the ash cloud drifted over north-central Europe. Finally, the ability to compute statistical moments and probabilities may allow for the better separation of science and decision-making, by making it possible for scientists to better focus on error reduction and decision makers to focus on ??drawing the line?? for risk assessment.  相似文献   

17.
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18.
The Hekla eruption cloud on 26–27 February 2000 was the first volcanic cloud to be continuously and completely monitored advecting above Iceland, using the C-band weather radar near the Keflavík international airport. Real-time radar observations of the onset, advection, and waning of the eruption cloud were studied using time series of PPI (plan-position indicator) radar images, including VMI normal, Echotop, and Cappi level 2 displays. The reflectivity of the entire volcanic cloud ranges from 0 to >60 dBz. The eruption column above the vent is essentially characterised by VMI normal and Cappi level 2 values, >30 dBz, due to the dominant influence of lapilli and ash (tephra) on the overall reflected signal. The cloud generated by the column was advected downwind to the north-northeast. It is characterised by values between 0 and 30 dBz, and the persistence of these reflections likely result from continuing water condensation and freezing on ash particles. Echotop radar images of the eruption onset document a rapid ascent of the plume head with a mean velocity of ~30 to 50 m s–1, before it reached an altitude of ~11–12 km. The evolution of the reflected cloud was studied from the area change in pixels of its highly reflected portions, >30 dBz, and tied to recorded volcanic tremor amplitudes. The synchronous initial variation of both radar and seismic signals documents the abrupt increase in tephra emission and magma discharge rate from 18:20 to 19:00 UTC on 26 February. From 19:00 the >45 dBz and 30–45 dBz portions of the reflected cloud decrease and disappear at about 7 and 10.5 h, respectively, after the eruption began, indicating the end of the decaying explosive phase. The advection and extent of the reflected eruption cloud were compared with eyewitness accounts of tephra fall onset and the measured mass of tephra deposited on the ground during the first 12 h. Differences in the deposit map and volcanic cloud radar map are due to the fact that the greater part of the deposit originates by fallout off the column margins and from the base of the cloud followed by advection of falling particle in lower level winds.Editorial responsibility: P. Mouginis-Mark  相似文献   

19.
Gas samples were collected by aircraft entering volcanic eruption clouds of three Guatemalan volcanoes. Gas chromatographic analyses show higher H2 and S gas contents in ash eruption clouds and lower H2 and S gases in vaporous gas plumes. H isotopic data demonstrate lighter isotopic distribution of water vapor in ash eruption clouds than in vaporous gas plumes. Most of the H2O in the vaporous plumes is probably meteoric. The data are the first direct gas analyses of explosive eruptive clouds, and demonstrate that, in spite of atmospheric admixture, useful compositional information on eruptive gases can be obtained using aircraft.  相似文献   

20.
A list of volcanic eruption plumes observed to ascend into or near the stratosphere since 1883 shows that the volcanoes divide readily into two groups, one at low and one at higher latitudes. A model for the rise of a buoyant volcanic plume rise as applied to volcanic eruptions is corrected for realistic temperature profiles and for the finite vertical extent of the resultant debris clouds. The utility of the model can be questioned, however, owing to the highly uncertain and variable nature of the efficiency of use of heat energy of buoyant rise. The observed correlation of stratospheric plumes with climatic effects indicates that those plumes nearer the equator have the largest impact on surface temperatures. Analysis of the observations also suggests that injection of debris into the stratosphere is more important in determining the effect on climate than either the total volcanic explosivity of the eruption or the actual height reached within the stratosphere.  相似文献   

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