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1.
The Water Framework Directive (WFD) identifies marine angiosperms (seagrasses and saltmarshes) as one of the biological elements used to classify water body status. This paper concentrates on the saltmarsh classification tools currently under development in the UK and RoI by the Marine Plants Task Team (MPTT) of the UK Technical Advisory Group (UK TAG). Saltmarsh classification is presently focusing on habitat extent, zonation and species diversity in order to fulfil the requirements of the WFD normative definitions. One of the many issues is that the natural rates of erosion and/or accretion differ between locations - this spatial and temporal natural variation is difficult to quantify; the tools and reference conditions developed will need to take this into consideration. To accurately quantify the classification boundaries and natural variability has posed a number of challenges; possible solutions are identified in this paper. Novel future classifications may also include saltmarsh ecosystem functioning (e.g., as a marine fish nursery) which may be further developed in an integrated saltmarsh tool. 相似文献
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快速有效的生物监测指标对于评估、保护、管理和恢复淡水生态系统至关重要.传统评估方法主要利用指示生物或类群的出现率和多度信息,但是忽略了水体环境中“生物”与“生物”,以及“生物”与“环境”间相互作用的复杂关系,而这些相互作用对淡水生态系统的生物多样性、生态系统服务功能以及生态系统对环境变化的响应有着深刻影响.生物共现网络是群落水平物种互作的结构模型,通过物种在群落出现及丰度数据,描述了物种间潜在的相互作用、群落的基本结构,反映群落在生态系统的功能和结构特性.生物共现网络展示了淡水生态系统中所有生物体之间潜在的相互作用关系,其拓扑结构特性可与特定的生态系统状态相关联,能够揭示生态系统的组织规律及其功能,可作为早期的、灵敏的生物指标,是一种很有应用前景的评估淡水生态系统状态和稳定性的工具. 相似文献
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To appreciate the impact of large-scale industrial operations on the marine environment requires a range of scientific studies which ideally should include physical, chemical and biological surveys of the various environmental compartments likely to be contaminated, linked with experiments designed to detect and quantify effects. More finely focused studies can then provide an evaluation of the impact. In relation to North Sea oil activities, this type of approach suggests that at present significant offshore contamination is found only in the sediments close to platforms using oil-based drilling muds. 相似文献
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T. C. Haas 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2001,15(2):101-131
To preserve biodiversity over centuries, ecosystem management will need to be accepted and practiced by individuals from
a broad spectrum of society's strata. Also, management decisions will need to be based on reliable judgments of the cause
and effect relationships that govern an ecosystem's dynamics. This article describes an extant, web-based ecosystem management
system (EMS) that allows (a) wide participation in ecosystem assessment and policy impact predictions, (b) convenient construction
of probabilistic models of ecosystem processes through an influence diagram, and (c) automatic creation of ecosystem assessment
reports. For illustration, the system is used to first model the cheetah population in Kenya, and then to assess the impact
on this population of different management options. The influence diagram used herein extends standard influence diagram theory
to allow representation of variables governed by stochastic differential equations, birth–death processes, and other nongaussian,
continuous probability distributions. For many ecosystems, data sets on ecosystem health indicators can be incomplete, small,
and contain unknown measurement errors. Some amount of knowledge of an ecosystem's dynamics however, may exist in the form
of expert opinion derived from ecological theory. The proposed EMS uses a nonbayesian parameter estimation method, called
consistency analysis that finds parameter estimates such that the fitted ecosystem model is as faithful as possible to both
the available data and the collected body of expert opinion. For illustration, consistency analysis is used to estimate the
cheetah viability influence diagram using all known cheetah surveys in the country of Kenya plus current understanding of
factors such as habitat and prey availability that affect cheetah population dynamics. 相似文献
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Increases in nitrate loading to the Mississippi River watershed during the last 50 years are considered responsible for the increase in hypoxic zone size in Louisiana-Texas shelf bottom waters. There is currently a national mandate to decrease the size of the hypoxic zone to 5000 km2 by 2015, mostly by a 30% reduction in annual nitrogen discharge into the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an ecosystem model for the Mississippi River plume to investigate the response of organic matter production and sedimentation to variable nitrate loading. The nitrogen-based model consisted of nine compartments (nitrate, ammonium, labile dissolved organic nitrogen, bacteria, small phytoplankton, diatoms, micro- and mesozooplankton, and detritus), and was developed for the spring season, when sedimentation of organic matter from plume surface waters is considered important in the development of shelf hypoxia. The model was forced by physical parameters specified along the river-ocean salinity gradient, including residence time, light attenuation by dissolved and particulate matter, mixed layer depth, and dilution. The model was developed using measurements of biological biomasses and nutrient concentrations across the salinity gradient, and model validation was performed with an independent dataset of primary production measurements for different riverine NO3 loads. Based on simulations over the range of observed springtime NO3 loads, small phytoplankton contributed on average 80% to primary production for intermediate to high salinities (>15), and the main contributors to modeled sedimentation at these salinities were diatom sinking, microzooplankton egestion, and small phytoplankton mortality. We investigated the impact of limiting factors on the relationship between NO3 loading and ecosystem rates. Model results showed that primary production was primarily limited by physical dilution of NO3, followed by abiotic light attenuation, light attenuation due to mixing, and diatom sinking. Sedimentation was mainly limited by the first three of these factors. Neither zooplankton grazing or plume residence times acted as limiting factors of ecosystem rates. Regarding nutrient reductions to the watershed, simulations showed that about half of the percent decrease in NO3 load was reflected in decreased plume sedimentation. For example, a 30% decrease in NO3 load resulted in a 19% decrease in average plume primary production and a 14% decrease in sedimentation. Finally, our model results indicated that the fraction of primary production exported from surface waters is highly variable with salinity (7–87%), a finding which has important implications for predictive models of hypoxic zone size that assume a constant value for this ratio. 相似文献
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MACIEJ ZALEWSKI 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):823-832
Abstract The increasing human population and degradation of biological integrity of ecosystems has been expressed, to a great extent, as a decline in water resources, the most critical factor to achieve sustainable development. This is because overexploitation and degradation of the biotic structure alters ecosystem processes to the point at which the ecosystem ability to provide desired resources is seriously diminished. The progress in ecology during recent years has created a background for integration of ecology and hydrology. UNESCO, under the International Hydrological Programme IHP-V, has initiated and provided a framework for such an interdisciplinary effort. During the programme, the conceptual background and principles of the surficial processes of ecohydrology were defined: first, by integration and quantification of biological and hydrological processes at the basin scale; second, by the enhancement of basin ecosystem absorbing capacity against human impact; and third, by using ecosystem properties as a management tool. Those principles are targeted, not only to eliminate threats, but also to amplify the opportunities for sustainable development as far as the control and regulation of nutrients and water cycling at the basin scale become possible. According to Popper's philosophy, the predictive planning of the future cannot be generated by extrapolating from recently used solutions. The integration of environmental sciences should create not only new scientific disciplines, but also a new solution which can face new challenges-sustainable management of the biogeosphere. 相似文献
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To reduce drilling uncertainties, zero-offset vertical seismic profiles can be inverted to quantify acoustic properties ahead of the bit. In this work, we propose an approach to invert vertical seismic profile corridor stacks in Bayesian framework for look-ahead prediction. The implemented approach helps to successfully predict density and compressional wave velocity using prior knowledge from drilled interval. Hence, this information can be used to monitor reservoir depth as well as quantifying high-pressure zones, which enables taking the correct decision during drilling. The inversion algorithm uses Gauss–Newton as an optimization tool, which requires the calculation of the sensitivity matrix of trace samples with respect to model parameters. Gauss–Newton has quadratic rate of convergence, which can speed up the inversion process. Moreover, geo-statistical analysis has been used to efficiently utilize prior information supplied to the inversion process. The algorithm has been tested on synthetic and field cases. For the field case, a zero-offset vertical seismic profile data taken from an offshore well were used as input to the inversion algorithm. Well logs acquired after drilling the prediction section was used to validate the inversion results. The results from the synthetic case applications were encouraging to accurately predict compressional wave velocity and density from just a constant prior model. The field case application shows the strength of our proposed approach in inverting vertical seismic profile data to obtain density and compressional wave velocity ahead of a bit with reasonable accuracy. Unlike the commonly used vertical seismic profile inversion approach for acoustic impedance using simple error to represent the prior covariance matrix, this work shows the importance of inverting for both density and compressional wave velocity using geo-statistical knowledge of density and compressional wave velocity from the drilled section to quantify the prior covariance matrix required during Bayesian inversion. 相似文献
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Marcela Z. Corazza Taufik Abr?o Fábio Grandis Lepri Sonia M. N. Gimenez Elisabeth Oliveira Maria Josefa Santos 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2012,26(8):1063-1079
Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) methodology has been applied to explain the variability of parameters for pollutant transport and fate modeling. In this study, the MCS method was used to evaluate the transport and fate of copper in the sediment of the Tibagi River sub-basin tributaries, Southern Brazil. The statistical distribution of the variables was described by a dataset obtained for copper concentration using sequential extraction, organic matter (OM) amount, and pH. The proposed stochastic spatial model for the copper transport in the river sediment was discussed and implemented by the MCS technique using the MatLab 7.3? mathematical software tool. In order to test some hypotheses, the sediment and the water column in the river ecosystem were considered as compartments. The proposed stochastic spatial model makes it possible to predict copper mobility and associated risks as a function of the organic matter input into aquatic systems. The metal mobility can increase with the OM posing a rising environmental risk. 相似文献
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Anne Mouchet Fabien Cornaton Éric Deleersnijder Éric J. M. Delhez 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(3):367-386
The concept of age is widely used to quantify the transport rate of tracers - or pollutants - in the environment. The age focuses only on the time taken to reach a given location and disregards other aspects of the path followed by the tracer parcel. To keep track of the subregions visited by the tracer parcel along this path, partial ages are defined as the time spent in the different subregions. Partial ages can be computed in an Eulerian framework in much the same way as the usual age by extending the Constituent oriented Age and Residence Time theory (CART, www.climate.be/CART). In addition to the derivation of theoretical results and properties of partial ages, applications to a 1D model with lateral/transient storage, to the 1D advection-diffusion equation and to the diagnosis of the ventilation of the deep ocean are provided. They demonstrate the versatility of the concept of partial age and the potential new insights that can be gained with it. 相似文献
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Several risk factors associated with the increased likelihood of healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have been identified in the literature. These risk factors are mainly related to age, previous CDI, antimicrobial exposure, and prior hospitalization. No model is available in the published literature that can be used to predict the CDI incidence using healthcare administration data. However, the administrative data can be imprecise and may challenge the building of classical statistical models. Fuzzy set theory can deal with the imprecision inherent in such data. This research aimed to develop a model based on deterministic and fuzzy mathematical techniques for the prediction of hospital-associated CDI by using the explanatory variables controllable by hospitals and health authority administration. Retrospective data on CDI incidence and other administrative data obtained from 22 hospitals within a regional health authority in British Columbia were used to develop a decision tree (deterministic technique based) and a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model (fuzzy technique based). The decision tree model had a higher prediction accuracy than that of the fuzzy based model. However, among the common results predicted by two models, 72 % were correct. Therefore, this relationship was used to combine their results to increase the precision and the strength of evidence of the prediction. These models were further used to develop an Excel-based tool called C. difficile Infection Incidence Prediction in Hospitals (CDIIPH). The tool can be utilized by health authorities and hospitals to predict the magnitude of CDI incidence in the following quarter. 相似文献
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ANN application for prediction of atmospheric nitrogen deposition to aquatic ecosystems 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The occurrences of increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition (ADN) in Southeast Asia during smoke haze episodes have undesired consequences on receiving aquatic ecosystems. A successful prediction of episodic ADN will allow a quantitative understanding of its possible impacts. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model is used to estimate atmospheric deposition of total nitrogen (TN) and organic nitrogen (ON) concentrations to coastal aquatic ecosystems. The selected model input variables were nitrogen species from atmospheric deposition, Total Suspended Particulates, Pollutant Standards Index and meteorological parameters. ANN models predictions were also compared with multiple linear regression model having the same inputs and output. ANN model performance was found relatively more accurate in its predictions and adequate even for high-concentration events with acceptable minimum error. The developed ANN model can be used as a forecasting tool to complement the current TN and ON analysis within the atmospheric deposition-monitoring program in the region. 相似文献
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Assessing SWAT's performance in the Kaskaskia River watershed as influenced by the number of calibration stations used 
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下载免费PDF全文 Li‐Chi Chiang Yongping Yuan Megan Mehaffey Michael Jackson Indrajeet Chaubey 《水文研究》2014,28(3):676-687
The Future Midwestern Landscapes (FML) project is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Ecosystem Services Research Program. The goal of the FML project is to quantify changes in ecosystem services across the Midwestern region as a result of the growing demand for biofuels. Watershed models are an efficient way to quantify ecosystem services of water quality and quantity. By calibrating models, we can better capture watershed characteristics before they are applied to make predictions. The Kaskaskia River watershed in Illinois was selected to investigate the effectiveness of different calibration strategies (single‐site and multi‐site calibrations) for streamflow, total suspended sediment (TSS) and total nitrogen (TN) loadings using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Four USGS gauges were evaluated in this study. Single‐site calibration was performed from a downstream site to an upstream site, and multi‐site calibration was performed and fine‐tuned based on the single‐site calibration results. Generally, simulated streamflow and TSS were not much affected by different calibration strategies. However, when single‐site calibration was performed at the most downstream site, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values for TN ranged between ?0.09 and 0.53 at the other sites; and when single‐site calibration was performed at the most upstream site, the NSE values ranged between ?8.38 and ?0.07 for the other sites. The NSE values for TN were improved to 0.5 – 0.59 for all four sites when multi‐site calibration was performed. The results of the multi‐site calibration and validation showed an improvement on model performance on TN and highlighted that multi‐site calibrations are needed to assess the hydrological and water quality processes at various spatial scales. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Given the structural shortcomings of conceptual rainfall–runoff models and the common use of time‐invariant model parameters, these parameters can be expected to represent broader aspects of the rainfall–runoff relationship than merely the static catchment characteristics that they are commonly supposed to quantify. In this article, we relax the common assumption of time‐invariance of parameters, and instead seek signature information about the dynamics of model behaviour and performance. We do this by using a temporal clustering approach to identify periods of hydrological similarity, allowing the model parameters to vary over the clusters found in this manner, and calibrating these parameters simultaneously. The diagnostic information inferred from these calibration results, based on the patterns in the parameter sets of the various clusters, is used to enhance the model structure. This approach shows how diagnostic model evaluation can be used to combine information from the data and the functioning of the hydrological model in a useful manner. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Farnaz Nojavan A. Song S. Qian Hans W. Paerl Kenneth H. Reckhow Elizabeth A. Albright 《Marine pollution bulletin》2014
The present paper utilizes a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) approach to intuitively present and quantify our current understanding of the complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that lead to eutrophication in an estuarine ecosystem (New River Estuary, North Carolina, USA). The model is further used to explore the effects of plausible future climatic and nutrient pollution management scenarios on water quality indicators. The BBN, through visualizing the structure of the network, facilitates knowledge communication with managers/stakeholders who might not be experts in the underlying scientific disciplines. Moreover, the developed structure of the BBN is transferable to other comparable estuaries. The BBN nodes are discretized exploring a new approach called moment matching method. The conditional probability tables of the variables are driven by a large dataset (four years). Our results show interaction among various predictors and their impact on water quality indicators. The synergistic effects caution future management actions. 相似文献
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火烧作为调控因子,对植物群落结构和生态系统功能具有重要影响,但在湖泊湿地中研究较少.通过野外调查取样与实验室分析,探讨火烧对洞庭湖湿地主要群落类型——荻(Miscanthus sacchariflorus)和苔草(Carex brevicuspis)土壤化学性质的影响.结果表明:火烧后,苔草群落土壤硝态氮含量显著减少64.6%,有机质含量增加26.3%;而荻群落土壤与之相反,硝态氮含量增加186.9%,有机质含量减少22.9%.火烧后,苔草群落的全氮、铵态氮、全碳和全磷含量均显著增加,分别增加了75.4%、36.3%、102.7%和76.9%,而荻群落土壤与对照组间无显著差异.总体上,火烧对荻群落土壤养分影响不大,可作为芦苇场的一种管理方式,但火烧促进苔草群落土壤养分释放,有助于苔草群落提前萌芽和生长,并引起牲畜牧食增加. 相似文献
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The desorption of contaminants from soils/sediments is one of the most important processes controlling contaminant transport and environmental risks. None of the currently adopted desorption models can accurately quantify desorption at relatively low concentrations; these models often overestimate the desorption and thus the risks of hydrophobic organic chemicals, such as benzene and chlorinated solvents. In reality, desorption is generally found to be biphasic, with two soil-phase compartments. A new dual-equilibrium desorption (DED) model has been developed to account for the biphasic desorption. This model has been tested using a wide range of laboratory and field data and has been used to explain key observations related to underground storage tank plumes. The DED model relates the amount of a chemical sorbed to the aqueous concentration, with simple parameters including octanol-water partition coefficient, solubility, and fractional organic carbon; thus, it is the only biphasic model, to date, that is based on readily available parameters. The DED model can be easily incorporated into standard risk and transport models. According to this model, many regulatory standards of soils and sediments could be increased without increasing the risks. 相似文献
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A New Coastal Marine Ecosystem Model Study Coupled with Hydrodynamics and Tidal Flat Ecosystem Effect 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Akio Sohma Yasuyuki Sekiguchi Hiroshi Yamada Tatsuaki Sato Kisaburo Nakata 《Marine pollution bulletin》2001,43(7-12):187-208
A new coastal marine ecosystem model was developed, which was composed of pelagic and benthic ecosystems, and was applied to Mikawa Bay, Japan. This model deals with variations of biochemical and physical interactions among dissolved oxygen and C–N–P species (composition formed out of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus elements) so that it resolves the flux dynamics of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and oxygen elements. The physical and biochemical mechanism figured in this model is constructed for the purpose of simulating the estuarine lower trophic ecosystem, in areas where the sea was too deep for light to reach the sea-bottom. As a result of coupling the benthic with pelagic system, the effect of process of sedimentation and nutrient diffusion back to the pelagic system could be indicated. In addition, by implementing the tidal flat ecosystem model's calculation result, the integrated model can include the effect of water purification in tidal flats where the light can reach the sea-bottom, and where sea-weed, sea grass and benthic algae exist. In this study, the model indicates that oxygen-depleted water exists at the sea-bottom especially in summer mainly caused by an increase of oxygen consumption in the benthic system and a decrease of the vertical mixing water process. Furthermore, by comparing the case – with the tidal flat ecosystem model and the case without it, the effect of water purification of tidal flat estuaries was indicated. From the viewpoint of a short time scale, the tidal flat has the potential to restrict red tide (rapid increase of phytoplankton), and from the viewpoint of a long time scale, it restricts the sedimentation of detritus. Restricting the sedimentation prevents oxygen-depleted water occurring in the coastal marine system of Mikawa Bay. 相似文献