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1.
Accelerating rates of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes are commonly observed during volcanic unrest. Understanding the repeatability of their behaviour is essential to evaluating their potential to forecast eruptions. Quantitative eruption forecasts have focused on changes in precursors over intervals of weeks or less. Previous studies at basaltic volcanoes in frequent eruption, such as Kilauea in Hawaii and Piton de La Fournaise on Réunion, suggest that VT earthquake rates tend to follow a power-law acceleration with time about 2 weeks before eruption, but that this trend is often obscured by random fluctuations (or noise) in VT earthquake rate. These previous studies used a stacking procedure, in which precursory sequences for several eruptions are combined to enhance the signal from an underlying acceleration in VT earthquake rate. Such analyses assume a common precursory trend for all eruptions. This assumption is tested here for the 57 eruptions and intrusions recorded at Kilauea between 1959 and 1984. Applying rigorous criteria for selecting data (e.g. maximum depth; restricting magnitudes to be greater than the completeness magnitude, 2.1), we find a much less pronounced increase in the aggregate rate of earthquakes than previously reported. The stacked trend is also strongly controlled by the behaviour of one particular pre-eruptive sequence. In contrast, a robust signal emerges among stacked VT earthquake rates for a subset of the eruptions and intrusions. The results are consistent with two different precursory styles at Kilauea: (1) a small proportion of eruptions and intrusions that are preceded by accelerating rates of VT earthquakes over intervals of weeks to months and (2) a much larger number of eruptions that show no consistent increase until a few hours beforehand. The results also confirm the importance of testing precursory trends against data that have been filtered according to simple constraints on the spatial distribution and completeness magnitude of the VT earthquakes.  相似文献   

2.
Ten years after the last effusive eruption and at least 15 years of seismic quiescence, volcanic seismic activity started at Colima volcano on 14 February 1991, with a seismic crisis which reached counts of more than 100 per day and showed a diversity of earthquake types. Four other distinct seismic crises followed, before a mild effusive eruption in April 1991. The second crisis preceded the extrusion of an andesitic scoriaceous lava lobe, first reported on 1 March; during this crisis an interesting temporary concentration of seismic foci below the crater was observed shortly before the extrusion was detected. The third crisis was constituted by shallow seismicity, featuring possible mild degassing explosion-induced activity in the form of hiccups (episodes of simple wavelets that repeat with diminishing amplitude), and accompanied by increased fumarolic activity. The growth of the new lava dome was accompanied by changing seismicity. On 16 April during the fifth crisis which consisted of some relatively large, shallow, volcanic earthquakes and numerous avalanches of older dome material, part of the newly extruded dome, which had grown towards the edge of the old dome, collapsed, producing the largest avalanches and ash flows. Afterwards, block lava began to flow slowly along the SW flank of the volcano, generating frequent small incandescent avalanches. The seismicity associated with the stages of this eruptive activity shows some interesting features: most earthquake foci were located north of the summit, some of them relatively deep (7–11 km below the summit level), underneath the saddle between the Colima and the older Nevado volcanoes. An apparently seismic quiet region appears between 4 and 7 km below the summit level. In June, harmonic tremors were detected for the first time, but no changes in the eruptive activity could be correlated with them. After June, the seismicity decreasing trend was established, and the effusive activity stopped on September 1991.  相似文献   

3.
Following 198 years of dormancy, a small phreatic eruption started at the summit of Unzen Volcano (Mt. Fugen) in November 1990. A swarm of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes had begun below the western flank of the volcano a year before this eruption, and isolated tremor occurred below the summit shortly before it. The focus of VT events had migrated eastward to the summit and became shallower. Following a period of phreatic activity, phreatomagmatic eruptions began in February 1991, became larger with time, and developed into a dacite dome eruption in May 1991 that lasted approximately 4 years. The emergence of the dome followed inflation, demagnetization and a swarm of high-frequency (HF) earthquakes in the crater area. After the dome appeared, activity of the VT earthquakes and the summit HF events was replaced largely by low-frequency (LF) earthquakes. Magma was discharged nearly continuously through the period of dome growth, and the rate decreased roughly with time. The lava dome grew in an unstable form on the shoulder of Mt. Fugen, with repeating partial collapses. The growth was exogenous when the lava effusion rate was high, and endogenous when low. A total of 13 lobes grew as a result of exogenous growth. Vigorous swarms of LF earthquakes occurred just prior to each lobe extrusion. Endogenous growth was accompanied by strong deformation of the crater floor and HF and LF earthquakes. By repeated exogenous and endogenous growth, a large dome was formed over the crater. Pyroclastic flows frequently descended to the northeast, east, and southeast, and their deposits extensively covered the eastern slope and flank of Mt. Fugen. Major pyroclastic flows took place when the lava effusion rate was high. Small vulcanian explosions were limited in the initial stage of dome growth. One of them occurred following collapse of the dome. The total volume of magma erupted was 2.1×108 m3 (dense-rock-equivalent); about a half of this volume remained as a lava dome at the summit (1.2 km long, 0.8 km wide and 230–540 m high). The eruption finished with extrusion of a spine at the endogenous dome top. Several monitoring results convinced us that the eruption had come to an end: the minimal levels of both seismicity and rockfalls, no discharge of magma, the minimal SO2 flux, and cessation of subsidence of the western flank of the volcano. The dome started slow deformation and cooling after the halt of magma effusion in February 1995.  相似文献   

4.
Using pattern recognition techniques, we formulate a simple prediction rule for a retrospective prediction of the three last largest eruptions of the Popocatépetl, Mexico, volcano that occurred on 23 April–30 June 1997 (Eruption 1; VEI ~ 2–3); 11 December 2000–23 January 2001 (Eruption 2; VEI ~ 3–4) and 7 June–4 September 2002 (Eruption 3; explosive dome extrusion and destruction phase). Times of Increased Probability (TIP) were estimated from the seismicity recorded by the local seismic network from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2005. A TIP is issued when a cluster of seismic events occurs under our algorithm considerations in a temporal window several days (or weeks) prior to large volcanic activity providing sufficient time to organize an effective alert strategy. The best predictions of the three analyzed eruptions were obtained when averaging seismicity rate over a 5-day window with a threshold value of 12 events and declaring an alarm for 45 days. A TIP was issued about six weeks before Eruption 1. TIPs were detected about one and four weeks before Eruptions 2 and 3, respectively. According to our objectives, in all cases, the observed TIPs would have allowed the development of an effective civil protection strategy. Although, under our model considerations the three eruptive events were successfully predicted, one false alarm was also issued by our algorithm. An analysis of the epicentral and depth distribution of the local seismicity used by our prediction rule reveals that successful TIPs were issued from microearthquakes that took place below and towards SE of the crater. On the contrary, the seismicity that issued the observed false alarm was concentrated below the summit of the volcano. We conclude that recording of precursory seismicity below and SE of the crater together with detection of TIPs as described here, could become an important tool to predict future large eruptions at Popocatépetl. Although our model worked well for events that occurred in the past, it is necessary to verify the real capability of the model for future eruptive events.  相似文献   

5.
The 1991 eruption of the Hekla volcano started unexpectedly on 17 January. No long-term precursory seismicity was observed. The first related activity was a swarm of small earthquakes that began approximately half an hour before the eruption. Intensive seismicity, both earthquakes and volcanic tremor, accompanied the violent onset of the eruption. Almost 400 events up to ML magnitude 2.5 were recorded during the first few hours. During the later phases of the eruption, the earthquake activity was modest and the main volcano-related seismic signal was the persistent volcanic tremor. The tremor died away, together with the eruption on 11 March, and Hekla was seismically quiet until the beginning of June 1991, when a sudden swarm of numerous small shallow earthquakes occurred. This activity is atypical for Hekla and is interpreted to be a failed attempt to resume the eruption.  相似文献   

6.
Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.  相似文献   

7.
Seismic energy release during the precursory, eruptive and declining stages of volcanic activities provides various information about the mechanisms of volcanic eruptions and the temporary developments of their activities. Hitherto the energy release patterns from precursory earthquake swarms were used to predict the eruption times, especially of andesitic or dacitic volcanoes. In this paper the discussion is expanded to quantify the total amount of seismic energy released at the threshold of volcanic eruptions, with reference to the results observed at several volcanoes. The results generally indicate that the cumulative seismic energy release from the precursory earthquake swarms exceed 101718ergs before eruptions at any andesitic or dacitic volvanoes. This allows the seismic efficiency, or the ratio of energy radiated seismically, and the energy required for the volumetric expansion to be estimated by incorporating available deformation data with the seismic data. The dependency of seismic efficiency on the type of volcanic activity, i. e. non-explosive outbreaks, phreatic and magmatic eruptions, dome formation, etc., was evaluated from observations at a few volcanoes that provided a variety of examples.  相似文献   

8.
To investigate the physical controls on volcano-tectonic (VT) precursors to eruptions and intrusions at basaltic volcanoes, we have analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of VT earthquakes associated with 34 eruptions and 23 dyke intrusions that occurred between 1960 and 1983 at Kilauea, in Hawaii. Eighteen of the 57 magmatic events were preceded by an acceleration of the mean rate of VT earthquakes located close to the main shallow magma reservoir. Using a maximum-likelihood technique and the Bayesian Information Criterion for model preference, we demonstrate that an exponential acceleration is preferred over a power-law acceleration for all sequences. These sequences evolve over time-scales of weeks to months and are consistent with theoretical models for the approach to volcanic eruptions based on the growth of a population of fractures in response to an excess magma pressure. Among the remaining 40 magmatic events, we found a significant correlation between swarms of VT earthquakes located in the mobile south-flank of Kilauea and eruptions and intrusions. The behaviour of these swarms suggests that at least some of the magmatic events are triggered by transient episodes of elevated rates of aseismic flank movement, which could explain why many eruptions and intrusions are not preceded by longer-term precursory signals. In none of the 57 cases could a precursory sequence be used to distinguish between the approach to an eruption or an intrusion, so that, even when a precursory sequence is recognized, there remains an empirical chance of about 40% (24 intrusions from 57 magmatic events) of issuing a false alarm for an imminent eruption.  相似文献   

9.
An explosive eruption occurred at the summit of Bezymianny volcano (Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia) on 11 January 2005 which was initially detected from seismic observations by the Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT). This prompted the acquisition of 17 Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite images of the volcano over the following 10 months. Visible and infrared data from ASTER revealed significant changes to the morphology of the summit lava dome, later seen with field based thermal infrared (TIR) camera surveys in August 2005. The morphology of the summit lava dome was observed to have changed from previous year’s observations and historical accounts. In August 2005 the dome contained a new crater and two small lava lobes. Stepped scarps within the new summit crater suggest a partial collapse mechanism of formation, rather than a purely explosive origin. Hot pyroclastic deposits were also observed to have pooled in the moat between the current lava dome and the 1956 crater wall. The visual and thermal data revealed a complex eruption sequence of explosion(s), viscous lava extrusion, and finally the formation of the collapse crater. Based on this sequence, the conduit could have become blocked/pressurized, which could signify the start of a new behavioural phase for the volcano and lead to the potential of larger eruptions in the future.  相似文献   

10.
 On King George Island during latest Oligocene/earliest Miocene time, submarine eruptions resulted in the emplacement of a small (ca. 500 m estimated original diameter) basalt lava dome at Low Head. The dome contains a central mass of columnar rock enveloped by fractured basalt and basalt breccia. The breccia is crystalline and is a joint-block deposit (lithic orthobreccia) interpreted as an unusually thick dome carapace breccia cogenetic with the columnar rock. It was formed in situ by a combination of intense dilation, fracturing and shattering caused by natural hydrofracturing during initial dome effusion and subsequent endogenous emplacement of further basalt melt, now preserved as the columnar rock. Muddy matrix with dispersed hyaloclastite and microfossils fills fractures and diffuse patches in part of the fractured basalt and breccia lithofacies. The sparse glass-rich clasts formed by cooling-contraction granulation during interaction between chilled basalt crust and surrounding water. Together with muddy sediment, they were injected into the dome by hydrofracturing, local steam fluidisation and likely explosive bulk interaction. The basalt lava was highly crystallised and degassed prior to extrusion. Together with a low effusion temperature and rapid convective heat loss in a submarine setting, these properties significantly affected the magma rheology (increased the viscosity and shear strength) and influenced the final dome-like form of the extrusion. Conversely, high heat retention was favoured by the degassed state of the magma (minimal undercooling), a thick breccia carapace and viscous shear heating, which helped to sustain magmatic (eruption) temperatures and enhanced the mobility of the flow. Received: 1 August 1996 / Accepted: 15 September 1997  相似文献   

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