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首先对2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震周边断裂活动和历史地震特征进行了阐述；然后利用黏弹性地壳模型，计算了1933年叠溪地震、1976年松潘震群和2008年汶川地震对2017年九寨沟地震的同震和震后库仑应力作用.该结果显示1933年叠溪地震对九寨沟地震具有延缓作用，而1976年松潘震群和2008年汶川地震对九寨沟地震的黏弹性库仑应力作用为正；随着下地壳和上地幔黏弹性物质的持续作用，前述几次地震总的黏弹性库仑应力在九寨沟地震破裂中心点处负的库仑应力逐渐减弱，而在破裂北段这些库仑应力逐渐转为正值，并促进了九寨沟地震的发生.本文也计算了九寨沟地震后对周边断层的库仑影响，并将此影响值转换为对断层能量积累的影响时间上，结果显示塔藏断裂带西段和中段在内的多条断裂带受到黏弹性库仑应力影响时间值超过10年.将库仑应力影响时间值加入到部分已知离逝时间的断层段上，也得到了这些断层段的未来30年特征地震发生概率.最终结果认为玛沁断裂带、玛曲断裂带、哈南—稻畦子断裂中段和西段等断层段的强震危险性需要重点关注. 相似文献
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昌马断裂带是是青藏高原北部一条活动强烈的左旋走滑断裂带。它表现为重力、航磁、地壳厚度的综合异常梯度带，属于断面陡、切割深的超岩石圈断裂。昌马断裂带由１２条长４公里至１８公里不等的不连续的主断层和４条次级断层组成，可划分为东、中、西三大段落。断裂的水平位移和滑动速率具有分段性，全新世以来，东、中、西三段的左旋水平滑动速率分别为４．１毫米／年，２．６毫米／年和１．５毫米／年。北东东、北北西和北西西三个方向断层的位移具有分级特征，不同级别的位移具有良好的同步性。全新世以来北东东、北北西和北西西三个方向断层的水平滑动速率分别为４．１毫米／年、３．８毫米／年和２．７毫米／年。白垩纪以来，昌马断裂呈天平式运动，显示了枢纽断裂运动特征，枢纽轴位于断裂中段。昌马地震震源破裂性质及其反映的震源应力场与地震破裂带的破裂性质及其反映的构造应力场不一致。昌马地震震源机制解反映了北北西～南南东挤压，作用应力近于水平的震源应力场；昌马地震破裂带的变形组合反映了东北～南西挤压的构造应力场。昌马地震破裂带长１２０公里，分为东部正走滑段、中部逆走滑段和西部尾端破裂段，显示了多个水平位移峰值。全新世以来，沿昌马断裂发生了６次强震事件，强震复发 相似文献
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联合利用甘肃及周边测震台网记录的古浪及周边地区4 592次地震的P波绝对到时和相对到时资料，采用双差地震定位方法对古浪震源区小震进行重新定位后发现，皇城-双塔断裂带东、西两段表现出不同的力学运动性质，西段以逆冲运动为主，地震主要发生在断裂的下盘；而东段地震却主要发生在上盘，断层活动以局部拉张为主。还首次发现在皇城-双塔断裂带的中段与主破裂呈垂直方向存在一条主震发生时新产生的共轭断层，基于小震的断层面参数反演显示该断裂是一高倾角运动性质以右旋为主兼具正断的断裂。 相似文献
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本文搜集、整理1998—2013年境内外天山及周边地区(包括中国新疆、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦等)500余个GPS观测点数据,采用GAMIT/GLOBK软件对其进行解算和平差计算,并利用了弹性块体模型计算区域块体边界断层闭锁深度、块体运动参数和主要活动断层的滑动速率.研究结果表明,东、西昆仑地震带闭锁深度最大(19km),其次为南天山地区,闭锁深度达到17km,闭锁深度最小的为哈萨克斯坦(13km);各块体相对欧亚板块作顺(逆)时针旋转,旋转速率最大(-0.7208±0.0034°/Ma)为塔里木块体,其围绕欧拉极(38.295±0.019°N,95.078±0.077°E)顺时针方向转动,旋转速率最小为天山东段(0.108±0.1210°/Ma),而天山东、西两段无论是在旋转速率上还是在旋转方向上都有显著的区别.西昆仑断裂带的滑动速率(10.2±2.8mm·a-1)最大,南天山西段滑动速率为9.5±1.8mm·a-1,其东段为3.9±1.1mm·a-1;而北天山东段滑动速率(4.7±1.1mm·a-1)高于北天山西段(3.7±0.9mm·a-1);塔里木盆地南缘的阿尔金断裂带平均滑动速率为7.6±1.4mm·a-1,其结果与阿勒泰断裂带滑动速率(7.6±1.6mm·a-1)基本相当;天山断裂带运动方式主要以挤压为主,而阿尔金、昆仑、阿尔泰以及哈萨克斯坦断裂带均是以走滑运动方式为主,除阿勒泰断裂带走滑方式为右旋以外,其余几个断裂带均为左旋运动.最后,利用主要断裂带的滑动速率计算出各地震带的地震矩变化率以及1900年以来地震矩累计变化量,其结果与利用地震目录计算所得到的地震矩进行比较,判定出各地震带上地震矩均衡分布状态,研究结果显示阿尔金、西昆仑、东昆仑和北天山东段断裂带存在较大的地震矩亏损,均具有发生7级以上地震的可能性,南天山东段和哈萨克斯坦断裂带地震矩亏损相对较小,具有孕育6~7级地震的潜能,而天山西段、阿勒泰地震矩呈现出盈余状态,不具在1~3年内有发生强震的可能. 相似文献
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CHANGES IN FAULT MOVEMENT PROPERTY AND GENETIC MECHANISM ON THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE XIANGSHAN-TIANJINGSHAN FAULT ZONE 
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下载免费PDF全文 The Xiangshan-Tianjingshan fault zone is an important part of the arc tectonic zone in northeastern Tibet, whose eastern segment is characterized by primarily left-lateral slip along with thrust component. In contrast, the fault movement property on the western segment of the Xiangshan-Tianjingshan fault zone is more complicated. According to the offset geomorphic features and cross sections revealed by the trenches and outcrops, the western segment is mainly a left-lateral strike-slip fault with normal component, and only accompanied with reverse component at specific positions. To determine the genetic mechanism of fault movement property on the western segment, we obtained three main factors based on the integrated analysis of fault geometry:(1)Step-overs:the left-stepping parallel faults in a sinistral shear zone create extensional step-overs and control the nearby and internal fault movement property; (2)terminal structures:they are conductive to stop rupture propagation and produce compressive deformation at the end of the fault trace; and(3)double bends:strike-slip faults have trace that bends such that slip between two adjacent blocks creates a compressive stress and thrust fault. Additionally, the Tianjingshan sub-block moves to SEE and creates an extensional stress at the end of the sub-block associated with normal faults. It shows that the Xiangshan-Tianjingshan fault zone has a complex evolution history, which is divided into two distinctive periods and characterized by laterally westward propagating. 相似文献
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断裂晚第四纪滑动速率及现今GPS观测揭示了青藏高原向北扩展与高原边缘隆升的运动特征.主要断裂晚第四纪滑动速率及跨断裂GPS应变速率的结果表明,青藏高原北部边缘的断裂以低滑动速率（＜10 mm/a）为主,特别是两条边界断裂：阿尔金断裂和海原—祁连山断裂.两条主要边界断裂上的滑动速率分布显示了断裂间滑动速率转换及调整特征.阿尔金断裂自95°E以西的8～12 mm/a稳定滑动速率,向东逐渐降低到最东端的约1～2 mm/a,而海原断裂自哈拉湖一带开始发育后滑动速率为1～2 mm/a,到祁连一带（101°E以东）增大到相对稳定的4～5 mm/a,直到过海原后转向六盘山一带,滑动速率降低到1～3 mm/a,甚至更低.滑动速率的变化及分布特征显示,阿尔金断裂滑动主要是通过祁连山内部隆起及两侧新生代盆地变形引起的缩短来吸收的,海原—祁连山断裂的低滑动速率及沿断裂运动学特征表明断裂尾端的陇西盆地变形及六盘山的隆起是断裂左旋走滑速率的主要吸收方式.这一变形特征表明,青藏高原北部边缘的变形模式是一种分布式的连续变形,变形发生自高原内部,边界断裂的走滑被高原内部变形所吸收. 相似文献
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Since 1997, several major earthquakes occurred around the Bayan Har block in the Tibetan plateau, providing an opportunity to further understanding the mechanism of intraplate earthquakes. What is the effect of interactions among these events on the earthquake occurrence pattern is an issue to be addressed. In this article, we use the visco-elastic Coulomb stress changes model to calculate the stress interactions among the historical events close to or large than MS7.0 since 1893 in the Bayan Har block. We apply the relationships between the slip rate and stress accumulation rate to transform the Coulomb stress changes into the influenced time. Then we remove such influence time from the occurrence years, and analyze the effects of the earthquake interactions on the clustering patterns of the historical earthquakes in the Bayan Har block. The results show that the major earthquakes in the Bayan Har block are characterized by a quasi-period of about 16 years from 1893 to 1973 and a clustering occurrence time period from 1997 to present following a relatively long quiescence period. The Bayan Har block is still in the active period with high probabilities of major quakes. We calculate the conditional probabilities of the rupture segments that did not rupture since 1893 of the boundary faults of the Bayan Har block in the next 30 years. The following faults or fault sections seem to be of major risk:The Maqin segment and the Maqu fault of the East Kunlun fault zone, the Awanang fault, the Luocha segment of the Tazhong fault, the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault, and the Dangjiang fault. Other Fault segments in the Bayan Har block without seismic events since 1893 probably also have hazard of MS7 earthquakes in the future. 相似文献
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The Chi‐Chi earthquake (MW = 7.6) took place in central western Taiwan in 1999. The earthquake caused reactivation of the Chelungpu Fault and resulted in 100‐km‐long surface ruptures. The fault strikes mostly north–south to NNE–SSW; however, the northern tip of the southern segment of the surface ruptures rotates clockwise to define an east–west trend, then jumps to a shorter NNW‐trending rupture. The largest vertical displacement is recorded in the Shihkang area of the Shihkang–Shangchi Fault Zone, where vertical slips are up to 8–10 m. The Shihkang–Shangchi Fault Zone displays a complex fault pattern as a linkage damage zone between two fault segments with the greatest concentration of faults and fractures. Our new interpretation, based on recent published geometric, kinematic, and geophysical studies on the Chi‐Chi earthquake fault, suggests that the Shihkang–Shangchi Fault Zone is not a simple termination zone, but may be an ‘overstep zone’ or a ‘transfer zone’. Slip analysis along the surface ruptures indicates that they are composed of three fault segments and the amount of slip partly depends on the intersection angle between slip direction and fault strike. Our numerical modeling for the area indicates that Coulomb stress changes are mainly concentrated on tips and bends of the surface ruptures. Slip patterns indicate that the fault propagates toward the northeast. Therefore, this study suggests high potential for future earthquake activity along the unruptured Shangchi segment. Hence, future geohazard studies should focus on the Shangchi segment to evaluate potential earthquakes, determine recurrence intervals, and reduce future earthquake hazards. 相似文献
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Earthquake hazard in Marmara Region, Turkey 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
M. Erdik M. Demircioglu K. Sesetyan E. Durukal B. Siyahi 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2004,24(8):605-631
Earthquake hazard in the Marmara Region, Turkey has been investigated using time-independent probabilistic (simple Poissonian) and time-dependent probabilistic (renewal) models. The study culminated in hazard maps of the Marmara Region depicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations (SA)'s at 0.2 and 1 s periods corresponding to 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. The historical seismicity, the tectonic models and the known slip rates along the faults constitute the main data used in the assignment. Based on recent findings it has been possible to provide a fault segmentation model for the Marmara Sea. For the main Marmara Fault this model essentially identifies fault segments for different structural, tectonic and geometrical features and historical earthquake occurrences. The damage distribution and pattern of the historical earthquakes have been carefully correlated with this fault segmentation model. The inter-event time period between characteristic earthquakes in these segments is consistently estimated by dividing the seismic slip estimated from the earthquake catalog by the GPS-derived slip rate of 22±3 mm/yr. The remaining segments in the eastern and southern Marmara region are also identified using recent geological, geophysical studies and historical earthquakes. The model assumes that seismic energy along the segments is released by characteristic earthquakes. For the probabilistic studies characteristic earthquake based recurrence relationships are used. Assuming normal distribution of inter-arrival times of characteristic earthquakes, the ‘mean recurrence time’, ‘covariance’ and the ‘time since last earthquake’ are developed for each segment. For the renewal model, the conditional probability for each fault segment is calculated from the mean recurrence interval of the characteristic earthquake, the elapsed time since the last major earthquake and the exposure period. The probabilities are conditional since they change as a function of the time elapsed since the last earthquake. For the background earthquake activity, a spatially smoothed seismicity is determined for each cell of a grid composed of cells of size 0.005°×0.005°. The ground motions are determined for soft rock (NEHRP B/C boundary) conditions. Western US-based attenuation relationships are utilized, since they show a good correlation with the attenuation characteristics of ground motion in the Marmara region. The possibility, that an event ruptures several fault segments (i.e. cascading), is also taken into account and investigated by two possible models of cascading. Differences between Poissonian and renewal models, and also the effect of cascading have been discussed with the help of PGA ratio maps. 相似文献
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Seismic Hazard Evaluation in Western Turkey as Revealed by Stress Transfer and Time-dependent Probability Calculations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
P. M. Paradisopoulou E. E. Papadimitriou V. G. Karakostas T. Taymaz A. Kilias S. Yolsal 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(8-9):1013-1048
Western Turkey has a long history of destructive earthquakes that are responsible for the death of thousands of people and which caused devastating damage to the existing infrastructures, and cultural and historical monuments. The recent earthquakes of Izmit (Kocaeli) on 17 August, 1999 (M w = 7.4) and Düzce (M w = 7.2) on 12 November, 1999, which occurred in the neighboring fault segments along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), were catastrophic ones for the Marmara region and surroundings in NW Turkey. Stress transfer between the two adjacent fault segments successfully explained the temporal proximity of these events. Similar evidence is also provided from recent studies dealing with successive strong events occurrence along the NAF and parts of the Aegean Sea; in that changes in the stress field due to the coseismic displacement of the stronger events influence the occurrence of the next events of comparable size by advancing their occurrence time and delimiting their occurrence place. In the present study the evolution of the stress field since the beginning of the twentieth century in the territory of the eastern Aegean Sea and western Turkey is examined, in an attempt to test whether the history of cumulative changes in stress can explain the spatial and temporal occurrence patterns of large earthquakes in this area. Coulomb stress changes are calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in elastic half space, taking into account both the coseismic slip in large (M ≥ 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup along the major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for strike-slip and normal faults. In each stage of the evolutionary model the stress field is calculated according to the strike, dip, and rake angles of the next large event, whose triggering is inspected, and the possible sites for future strong earthquakes can be assessed. A new insight on the evaluation of future seismic hazards is given by translating the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability using an earthquake nucleation constitutive relation, which includes permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes. 相似文献
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自1920年海原发生M8.5地震以来，青藏高原东北缘接连发生了1927年古浪M8.0地震、1932年昌马M7.6地震等一系列大地震，使其进入了强震活动的丛集期。为了探究青藏高原东北缘这一系列地震间的相互作用及区域地震危险性，建立青藏高原东北缘的三维Maxwell黏弹性有限元模型，模拟了区域自1920年以来17次M6.7以上地震的同震及震后库仑应力演化。结果显示：研究区自1920年海原M8.5大地震之后，后续的16次地震中，有13次地震发生在库仑应力变化为正的区域，说明了地震间的相互作用可能是导致区域地震丛集的主要原因之一。系列地震发生后，阿尔金断裂、柴达木盆地断裂西段、东昆仑断裂中段、鄂拉山断裂北段、共和盆地断裂南段、日月山断裂南段、庄浪河断裂、礼县—罗家堡断裂、成县盆地断裂西段、文县断裂西段、龙首山断裂南段、六盘山断裂东段、西秦岭北缘断裂东段、海原断裂西段和祁连断裂东段位于库仑应力变化为正的区域，且大部分断裂或断裂段的累积库仑应力变化超过了0.01 MPa,它们未来的地震危险性较高。 相似文献
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COULOMB STRESS EVOLUTION AND SEISMIC HAZARD ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE SICHUAN-YUNNAN BLOCK 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Using a more realistic model of multi-layered viscoelastic media, and considering the effects of the coseismic dislocation and the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation caused by the 34 great earthquakes occurring along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block since 1480 and the interseismic stress accumulation caused by the tectonic loading generated by plate motions which were modeled by introducing "virtual negative displacements" along the major fault segment in the region under study, we calculated the evolution of the Coulomb stress change in each fault plane of 18 major fault segments along the eastern boundary caused by the coseismic, postseismic and interseismic effects. We studied the interactions of the Xianshuihe, Anninghe, Zemuhe and Xiaojiang fault zones on the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block. By evaluating if the previous earthquake could bring another earthquake closer to or farther from failure, we analyzed the interactions of the earthquakes which occurred in the different segments in the same fault zone, or in the different fault zones respectively. And further based on the calculation results of the Coulomb stress change on the fault planes, we analyzed the seismic hazard of each fault segment.The results show that the previous earthquake may trigger another earthquake which can occur in the same fault zone or in the different fault zone. And the calculation results on the evolution of the cumulative Coulomb stress change in the each fault segment show that, the Coulomb stress increases significantly in the middle section and the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault zone, the Qiaojia-dongchuan segment and the Jianshui segment of the Xiaojiang fault zone, and the seismic hazard in these fault segments is worthy paying attention to. 相似文献
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Influence of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on earthquake occurrence trend of active faults in Sichuan-Yunnan region 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The Wenchuan earthquake coseismic deformation field is inferred from the coseismic dislocation data based on a 3-D geometric model of the active faults in Sichuan-Yunnan region. Then the potential dislocation displacement is inverted from the deformation field in the 3-D geometric model. While the faults' slip velocities are inverted from GPS and leveling data, which can be used as the long-term slip vector. After the potential dislocation displacements are projected to long-term slip direction, we have got the influence of Wenchuan earthquake on active faults in Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that the northwestern segment of Longmenshan fault, the southern segments of Xianshuihe fault, Anninghe fault, Zemuhe fault, northern and southern segments of Daliangshan fault, Mabian fault got earthquake risks advanced of 305, 19, 12, 9.1 and 18, 51 years respectively in the eastern part of Sichuan and Yunnan. The Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault, Nujiang fault, Longling-Lancang fault, Nantinghe fault and Zhongdian fault also got earthquake risks advanced in the western part of Sichuan-Yunnan region. Whereas the northwestern segment of Xianshuihe fault and Xiaojiang fault got earthquake risks reduced after the Wenchuan earthquake. 相似文献
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喀喇昆仑断层位于我国新疆、西藏和阿富汗、克什米尔之间,是亚洲大陆中部一条巨型的右旋走滑断裂带,长约1000km,呈北西向展布,十分醒目。喀喇昆仑断层和阿尔金断层形成一个巨大的挤出构造,使青藏高原向东运动,对东亚的新构造和地震活动具有重要的控制作用。木吉-塔什库尔干盆地是公格尔山和慕士塔格山西侧一条串珠状断陷盆地带,东西两侧发育系列山前活动断裂,主要表现为正断层。这里曾发生多次强震活动,3条地震形变带(地震断层)已被发现。塔什库尔干断裂带呈北北西走向,是喀喇昆仑断层北部的一条分支 相似文献
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FOCAL MECHANISM AND SEISMOGENIC STRUCTURE OF THE M5.0 YUEXI EARTHQUAKE ON 1 OCT. 2014, SOUTHWESTERN CHINA 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The Oct.1,2014 M5.0 Yuexi earthquake occurred on the Daliang Shan fault zone where only several historical moderate earthquakes were recorded.Based on the waveform data from Sichuan regional seismic network,we calculated the focal mechanism solution and centroid depth of the M5.0 Yuexi earthquake by CAP (Cut and Paste) waveform inversion method,and preliminarily analyzed the seismogenic structure.We also calculated the apparent stress values of the M5.0 earthquake and other 14 ML≥4.0 events along the Shimian-Qiaojia fault segment of the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block.The result indicates that the parameters of the focal mechanism solution are with a strike of 256°,dip of 62°,and slip of 167° for the nodal plane Ⅰ,and strike of 352°,dip of 79°,and slip of 29° for the nodal plane Ⅱ.The azimuth of the P axis is 121° with dip angle of 11°,the azimuth of T axis is 217° with dip angle of 28°,and the centroid depth is about 11km,and moment magnitude is MW5.1.According to the focal mechanism solution and the fault geometry near the epicenter,we infer that the seismogenic fault is a branch fault,i.e.,the Puxiong Fault,along the central segment of the Daliang Shan fault zone.Thus,the nodal plane Ⅱ was interpreted as the coseismic rupture plane.The M5.0 Yuexi earthquake is a strike-slip faulting event with an oblique component.The above findings reveal the M5.0 Yuexi earthquake resulted from the left-lateral strike-slip faulting of the NNW Dalang Shan fault zone under the nearly horizontal principal compressive stress regime in an NWW-SEE direction.The apparent stress value of the Yuexi earthquake is 0.99MPa,higher than those of the ML ≥ 4.0 earthquakes along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block since 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake,implying a relatively high stress level on the seismogenic area and greater potential for the moderate and strong earthquake occurrence.It may also reflect the current increasing stress level of the entire area along the eastern boundary,and therefore,posing the risk of strong earthquakes there. 相似文献
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郯庐断裂带中段全新世活断层的特征滑动行为与特征地震 总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16
郯庐断裂带中段全新世活断层由３个独立的破裂段组成。从各破裂段的运动性质、位移分布看，断层的运动属特征地震型滑动。地震活动以强震活动为主，强震具有周期性原地重复发生的特点，且其强度基本相同；中强地震缺失或很少发生；ｂ值在高震级范围内具低ｂ值的非线性关系。这些特点正是特征地震的典型表现．根据郯庐断裂带中段活断层全新世以来的活动特点看，未来该区仍然以特征地震方式活动．按郯庐带的强震复发间隔和各段的最新一次活动时代推算，未来一段时期内新沂－宿迁段复发大震的可能性较大，安丘段次之，莒县－郯城段复发大震的可能性则很小。 相似文献
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The relationship between the distribution of Pliocene basaltic volcanism and the Dead Sea Transform fault is studied in the Korazim block, north of the Sea of Galilee. In this area, the Dead Sea Transform is divided into two segments. Early (Miocene) slip occurred along the western segment, while recent (Plio-Pleistocene) slip was mainly restricted to the eastern segment. Late Pliocene alkali-basalts from the Korazim block are geochemically distinct (concentrations of silica and alkalis and ratios of incompatible elements) from the Late Pliocene basanites of the nearby Upper Galilee to their west but are similar to Late Pliocene basalts from the adjacent Golan to the east. It is argued that the geochemical differences are due to derivation of magmas from different lithospheric domains and that these domains were emplaced next to each other during an early sinistral movement along the western segment of the transform. It is suggested that though being less active, the western segment formed a sharp boundary and prevented intermixing of lithospheric magmas ascending on both its sides during the Late Pliocene. During the Early Pliocene, alkali basalts erupted in southern Korazim, but not in the adjacent areas to the east and west (restoring for the 25–30 km along the eastern segment). These basalts were probably channeled from the south with both western and the eastern segments acting as barriers. 相似文献
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东昆仑断裂带是青藏高原东北部一条重要的活动断裂, 构成了巴颜喀拉块体的北边界。 根据阿尼玛卿山两侧滑动速率和历史地震的差异, 将断裂带分为东西两个部分。 滑动速率由西向东递减, 近百年的历史地震产生的破裂基本覆盖了西部和东部的一部分。 随着巴颜喀拉块体周缘强震的持续发生, 作为块体北边界的东昆仑断裂带的地震空区及地震潜势研究变得更加重要。 近些年通过对东昆仑断裂带不同段的研究得到了较多的滑动速率和古地震序列数据, 为评价断裂带未来百年地震危险性提供了有利条件。 利用NB模型中的对数正态分布方法, 得到了东昆仑断裂带在未来100 a的发震概率, 研究表明, 东部(玛曲段)发震概率相对较高, 需要进一步关注。 相似文献