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1.
A case study on the responses of streamflow to climate change in the Toutun River basin was carried out based on data analysis of streamflow, precipitation, and temperatures during the past 50 years.Temporal series of the streamflow change in the Toutun River basin was analyzed and tested using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. Results revealed that the annual runoff of the Toutun River had been in a monotonic decreasing trend for the past 50 years. Compared with the 1950s and 1960s, the annual runoff in the 1990s decreased by 4.0×105 m3 and 7.2×105 m3. The precipitation did not show monotonic trend during the past 50 years, but the annual temperature increased by 1.12℃ since the 1950s. Further data analysis indicated that the monthly runoff of the Toutun River decreased significantly from August to October, with precipitation displaying the similar pattern of seasonal change. Analysis suggests that the reduction of streamflow in the Toutun River basin is possibly caused by the seasonal change of precipitation, especially the precipitation reduction in summer, and temperature increases.  相似文献   

2.
Runoffs in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins,China,have been changing constantly during the last half century.In this paper,data from eight river gauging stations and 529 meteorological stations,inside and adjacent to the study basins,were analyzed and compared to quantify the hydrological processes involved,and to evaluate the role of human activities in changing river discharges.The Inverse Distance Weighted(IDW)interpolation method was used to obtain climatic data coverage from station observations.According to the runoff coefficient equation,the effect of human activities and climate can be expressed by changes in runoff coefficients and changes in precipitation,respectively.Annual runoff coefficients were calculated for the period 1950-2008,according to the correlation between respective hydrological series and regional precipitation.Annual precipitation showed no obvious trend in the upper reaches of the Yellow River but a marked downward trend in the middle and downstream reaches,with declines of 8.8 and 9.8 mm/10 a,respectively.All annual runoff series for the Yellow River basin showed a significant downward trend.Runoff declined by about 7.8 mm/10 a at Sanmenxia and 10.8 mm/10 a at Lijin.The series results indicated that an abrupt change occurred in the late 1980s to early 1990s.The trend of correlations between annual runoff and precipitation decreased significantly at the Yellow River stations,with rates ranging from 0.013/10 a to 0.019/10 a.For the hydrologic series,all precipitation series showed a downward trend in the Yangtze River basin with declines ranging from about 24.7 mm/10 a at Cuntan to 18.2 mm/10 a at Datong.Annual runoff series for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River decreased significantly,at rates ranging from 9.9 to 7.2 mm/10 a.In the middle and lower reaches,the runoff series showed no significant trend,with rates of change ranging from 2.1 to 2.9 mm/10 a.Human activities had the greatest influence on changes in the hydrological series of runoff,regardless of whether the effect was negative or positive.During 1970-2008,human activities contributed to 83% of the reduction in runoff in the Yellow River basin,and to 71% of the increase in runoff in the Yangtze River basin.Moreover,the impacts of human activities across the entire basin increased over time.In the 2000s,the impact of human activities exceeded that of climate change and was responsible for 84% of the decrease and 73% of the increase in runoff in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins,respectively.The average annual runoff from 1980 to 2008 fell by about 97%,83%,83%,and 91%,compared with 1951-1969,at the Yellow River stations Lanzhou,Sanmenxia,Huayuankou and Lijin,respectively.Most of the reduction in runoff was caused by human activities.Changes in precipitation also caused reductions in runoff of about 3%,17%,17%,and 9% at these four stations,respectively.Falling precipitation rates were the main explanation for runoff changes at the Yangtze River stations Cuntan,Yichang,Hankou,and Datong,causing reductions in runoff of 89%,74%,43%,and 35%,respectively.Underlying surface changes caused decreases in runoff in the Yellow River basin and increases in runoff in the Yangtze River basin.Runoff decreased in arid areas as a result of increased water usage,but increased in humid and sub-humid areas as a result of land reclamation and mass urbanization leading to decreases in evaporation and infiltration.  相似文献   

3.
This paper presents a study on the characteristics of multiple time scales of bankfull discharge and its delayed response to changes of flow conditions using continuous wavelet analysis for data from selected hydrological stations in the Yellow River basin. Results showed that bankfull discharge series had one or two dominant time scales. For example, the Huayuankou station in the lower reach of the Yellow River had two dominant time scales of 19-20 years and 545 years. The dominant time scales of the bankfull discharge series were generally consistent with the dominant time scales of water discharge and sediment concentration series, indicating that the channel morphology inherits the characteristics of the hydrological system in terms of multiple time scales. In addition, the wavelet coefficients of the bankfull discharge series had a phase difference in relation to those of the sediment concentration series, with a delay time that varied from 3 to 16 years at different sites. This delay time or relaxation time is a result of the delayed response of bankfull discharge to flow conditions, which was significant for channel adjustments in response to changes of flow conditions. The findings of the multiple time scales and the delayed response are of importance for further study of channel morphology of fluvial systems.  相似文献   

4.
Based on daily precipitation data of more than 2000 Chinese stations and more than 50 yr, we constructed time series of extreme precipitation based on six different indices for each station: annual and summer maximum(top-1) precipitation,accumulated amount of 10 precipitation maxima(annual, summer; top-10), and total annual and summer precipitation.Furthermore, we constructed the time series of the total number of stations based on the total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 annual extreme precipitation for the whole data period, the whole country, and six subregions, respectively. Analysis of these time series indicate three regions with distinct trends of extreme precipitation:(1) a positive trend region in Southeast China,(2) a positive trend region in Northwest China, and(3) a negative trend region in North China. Increasing(decreasing)ratios of 10–30% or even 30% were observed in these three regions. The national total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation extremes increased respectively by 2.4 and 15 stations per decade on average but with great inter-annual variations.There have been three periods with highly frequent precipitation extremes since 1960:(1) early 1960 s,(2) middle and late 1990 s,and(3) early 21 st century. There are significant regional differences in trends of regional total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation. The most significant increase was observed over Northwest China. During the same period, there are significant changes in the atmospheric variables that favor the decrease of extreme precipitation over North China: an increase in the geopotential height over North China and its upstream regions, a decrease in the low-level meridional wind from South China coast to North China, and the corresponding low moisture content in North China. The extreme precipitation values with a50-year empirical return period are 400–600 mm at the South China coastal regions and gradually decrease to less than 50 mm in Northwest China. The mean increase rate in comparison with 20-year empirical return levels is 6.8%. The historical maximum precipitation is more than twice the 50-year return levels.  相似文献   

5.
Data on sediment flux at three hydrologic stations from the 1950s to 2006 are utilized to study the decadal,annual,and monthly variations in suspended sediment load delivered from the Pearl River to the ocean.Results show that variations in sediment flux from three main tributaries,including the West River,the North River and the East River,are spatially non-uniform.Since nearly 90%of the suspended sediment load comes from the West River,its variation has dominated the overall tendency of sediment flux in the entire Pearl River.Although a significant decreasing trend exists in the annual variation of the total sediment flux,the decadal change can be divided into an increasing phase and a decreasing phase,with the turning point between the two phases in the late 1980s.From the 1950s to the 1980s,the average annual river sediment flux increased by 30.43%.However,sediment flux has decreased significantly since the 1990s,with the average sediment flux being 38.60%less in the 2000s than that in the 1950s.The current sediment flux is also 52.93%less than its peak in the 1980s. The monthly variation pattern of the suspended sediment load transport to the sea is more interesting. For the West River,all months show a decreasing trend,and for most months the reduction values are significant.However,for the East River the sediment load shows a decrease trend in the dry season and an increase trend in the wet season.The method of regression analysis was used to study the influence of precipitation in the variation on the sediment flux.It was found that the climate change is not the main driving force behind the variation in suspended sediment load.Before the 1990s, intensive land use destroyed the vulnerable ecosystem of the upper Pearl River,and speeded up the process of rocky desertification.Consequently,aggravated soil erosion caused an increase in suspended sediment load.However,sediment retention within reservoirs had begun to play a dominant role after the massive construction of large dams after 1990,and resulted in a decrease in the suspended sediment load delivered to the ocean.  相似文献   

6.
Identification of temporal changes in hydrological regimes of river basins is an important topic in contemporary hydrology because of the potential impacts of climate change on river flow regimes.For this purpose,long-term historical records of rainfall(P),runoff(Q)and other climatic factors were used to investigate hydrological variability and trends in the Tajan River Basin over the period 1969e1998.Actual evaporation(E),rainfall variability index(d),evaporation ratio(CE)and runoff ratio(CQ)were estimated from the available hydroclimatological records.Mann-Kendall trend analysis and nonparametric Sen's slope estimates were performed on the respective time series variables to detect monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change over time.Rainfall variability index showed that 1973 was the wettest year(δ=+2.039)while 1985 was the driest(δ=-1.584).Also,decades 69e78 and 89e98 were recognized as the wettest and driest decades respectively.The gradient of variation of climatological parameters showed that during the study period,all three parameters of rainfall,evaporation and runoff have decreased and the variations of rainfall and evaporation were significant at the 95%level.Investigation of hydrological changes due of dam construction(1999)showed that the amount and annual distribution of discharge were completely different pre and post-dam construction.Discharge decreased in high water months and increased in low water months to meet water supply demands,especially for agriculture.The relationship between temperature and rainfall trends is compared for three stations in Mazandaran Province(Gorgan,Babolsar and Ramsar)from 1956 to 2003 and nine other stations with different statistical periods of 19e36 years,relating trends to northern hemisphere and global trends.Decreases in temperature were accompanied by decreases in rainfall,and vice versa.These trends were not observed in northern hemisphere and world scales,where temperature increases are accompanied by decreases in rainfall.These variations of hydroclimatological parameters show undesirable water resources situations during the statistical periods if the trend continues severe water resource crises.  相似文献   

7.
Based on cross-dating tree rings from the Tianmu Mountain, Zhejiang Province, the tree rings α-cellulose δ 13C time series was measured. By spectrum analysis, the variation of tree-ring δ13C sequence shows a quasi periodicity of 4.4 years, which is coincident with the standard cycle of El Nino. After removing the long-term decrease trend of the δ13C variation related to atmospheric CO2 concentration, the response of the δ13C to climate elements was analyzed using meteorology data from a nearby weather station. The results suggest that there is a distinct relativity between high-frequency variation of tree ring δ 13C series and seasonal climate parameters, e.g. Temperature and precipitation, with a significant time-lag effect. In addition, the high frequency also reflects the strength change of the East Asian Monsoon. The multiple regression method was employed to reconstruct the historical climate, and to analyze the climate change and trend in the last 160 years in the northern Zhejiang Province.  相似文献   

8.
We explored a time series of the Asian summer monsoon(ASM) variability during the transition period from the middle to the late Holocene in the marginal Asian monsoon region. We used an absolutely dated ~(230)Th record with only a ~20-year dating error, and oxygen isotope data with an 8-year average temporal resolution from the top 22-mm segment of stalagmite WXB07-4 from Wanxiang Cave, western Loess Plateau. The ASM intensity weakened gradually from 6420 to 4920 a BP, which was mainly characterized by three phases:(1) a strengthening phase with a higher precipitation amount between 6420 and 6170 a BP;(2) a smooth fluctuating interval during 6170–5700 a BP; and(3) a sudden extreme weakening period from 5700 to 4920 a BP. Interestingly, the extreme weakening interval of the ASM occurred during the period between 5700 and 4920 a BP, an abrupt change dated at 5430 a BP, which is known as the 5400 a BP, or 5.4 ka BP, event. The period included 290 years of gradual weakening, and 350 years of slow strengthening. This was synchronous with some cave records from the Asian monsoon region within dating errors. Comparing with Chinese archaeological archives over the past 7000 years, the early decline of the Yangshao Culture in the Yellow River Basin and the Hongshan Culture in the West Liao River Basin occurred during the period of gradual decrease of ASM precipitation. The dramatic decline in precipitation, caused by the extreme weakening of the ASM at 5400 a BP,may have been partly related to the decline of the Miaodigou Culture at the Yangguanzhai site in the Weihe River valley; the middle Yangshao Culture in western Henan in the Yellow River Basin; the early Dawenkou Culture on the lower reaches of the Yellow River; and the middle Hongshan Culture in the west of the Liaohe River valley. During the later period of the 5400 a BP event(5430–4920 a BP), a small amplitude increase and a subsequent sharp decrease of ASM precipitation may have also been linked to the contemporaneous prosperity and disappearance of the late Yangshao and Hongshan cultures; the disappearance of the late Yangshao Culture represented by the Yangguanzhai site in the Guanzhong basin on the Weihe River; the fourth phase of the late Yangshao Culture on the upstream Dadiwan site; the beginning of the middle Dawenkou Culture, the formation of its late stage,and the rise of the Longshan culture; and the rise of the Qujialing and Liangzhu cultures on the lower Yangtze River. Compared with the stalagmite precipitation records on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the rise and expansion of the Majiayao Culture in the upper Yellow River valley at 5300 a BP may have also been connected to the more dramatic increase of the summer monsoon precipitation at higher, rather than lower, altitudes during the late 5400 a BP event.  相似文献   

9.
The significant reduction of sediment load flux into Lake Baikal from its main tributary e the Selenga River began in the mid-1970s,and can be explained by climate change and socio-economic activities.Integrated analysis was done of changes in hydro-meteorological parameters(water discharge,sediment load,air temperature,and precipitation)and their tendencies over periods of 1946-1975(baseline)and 1976-2017(warming).Changes in natural processes and human activity were negligible during the baseline period.In the warming period,against the background of an increase in temperature,the water discharge had a slight decreasing trend(-13%)whereas the sediment load has significantly decreased(-53%)these are consist with the precipitation change(-9.4%).Analysis of hydro-climatic data using statistical methods showed that in the warming period the greatest reduction in river sediment runoff occurred in the interval 1996-2017.In this period the sediment load was 768×103t/yr,which is less than the average value during the warming period e 1048×103t/yr.Considering sedimentation in the Selenga River delta,the actual sediment load flux from the Selenga River into Lake Baikal amounted to 515×103t/yr,which is three times less than the average multiyear value 1535×103t/yr for observation period(1946e2017).  相似文献   

10.
Ecological systems in the headwaters of the Yellow River, characterized by hash natural environmental conditions, are very vulnerable to climatic change. In the most recent decades, this area greatly attracted the public's attention for its more and more deteriorating environmental conditions. Based on tree-ring samples from the Xiqing Mountain and A'nyêmagên Mountains at the headwaters of the Yellow River in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we reconstructed the minimum temperatures in the winter half year over the last 425 years and the maximum temperatures in the summer half year over the past 700 years in this region. The variation of minimum temperature in the winter half year during the time span of 1578―1940 was a relatively stable trend, which was followed by an abrupt warming trend since 1941. However, there is no significant warming trend for the maximum temperature in the summer half year over the 20th century. The asymmetric variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures were observed in this study over the past 425 years. During the past 425 years, there are similar variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures; however, the minimum temperatures vary about 25 years earlier compared to the maximum temperatures. If such a trend of variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures over the past 425 years continues in the future 30 years, the maximum temperature in this region will increase significantly.  相似文献   

11.
Streamflow series of five hydrological stations were analyzed with aim to indicate variability of water resources in the Tarim River basin. Besides, impacts of climate changes on water resources were investigated by analyzing daily precipitation and temperature data of 23 meteorological stations covering 1960–2005. Some interesting and important results were obtained: (1) the study region is characterized by increasing temperature, however, only temperature in autumn is in significant increasing trend; (2) precipitation changes present different properties. Generally, increasing precipitation can be detected. However, only the precipitation in the Tienshan mountain area is in significant increasing trend. Annual streamflow of major rivers of the Tarim River basin are not in significant trends, except that of the Akesu River which is in significantly increasing trend. Due to the geomorphologic properties of the Tienshan mountain area, precipitation in this area demonstrates significant increasing trend and which in turn leads to increasing streamflow of the Akesu River. Due to the fact that the sources of streamflow of the rivers in the Tarim River basin are precipitation and melting glacial, both increasing precipitation and accelerating melting ice has the potential to cause increasing streamflow. These results are of practical and scientific merits in basin-scale water resource management in the arid regions in China under the changing environment.  相似文献   

12.
Using the defined sensitivity index, the sensitivity of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change was investigated in four catchments in the Haihe River basin. Climate change contained three parts: annual precipitation and temperature change and the change of the percentage of precipitation in the flood season (Pf). With satisfying monthly streamflow simulation using the variable infiltration capacity model, the sensitivity was estimated by the change of simulated hydrological variables with hypothetical climatic scenarios and observed climatic data. The results indicated that (i) the sensitivity of streamflow would increase as precipitation or Pf increased but would decrease as temperature increased; (ii) the sensitivity of evapotranspiration and soil moisture would decrease as precipitation or temperature increased, but it to Pf varied in different catchments; and (iii) hydrological variables were more sensitive to precipitation, followed by Pf, and then temperature. The nonlinear response of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change could provide a reference for water resources planning and management under future climate change scenarios in the Haihe River basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The catchments in the Loess Plateau, in China's middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin, experienced unprecedented land use changes in the last 50 years as a result of large‐scale soil conservation measure to control soil erosion. The climate of the region also exhibited some levels of change with decreased precipitation and increased temperature. This study combined the time‐trend analysis method with a sensitivity‐based approach and found that annual streamflow in the Loess Plateau decreased significantly since the 1950s and surface runoff trends appear to dominate the streamflow trends in most of the catchments. Annual baseflow exhibited mostly downward trends, but significant upward trends were also observed in 3 out of 38 gauging stations. Mean annual streamflow during 1979?2010 decreased by up to 65% across the catchments compared with the period of 1957?1978, indicating significant changes in the hydrological regime of the Loess Plateau. It is estimated that 70% of the streamflow reduction can be attributed to land use change, while the remaining 30% is associated with climate variability. Land use change because of the soil conservation measures and reduction in precipitation are the key drivers for the observed streamflow trends. These findings are consistent with results of previous studies for the region and appear to be reasonable given the accelerated level of the soil conservation measures implemented since the late 1970s. Changes in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, as indicated by variations in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, appear to have also affected the annual streamflow trends. The framework described in this study shows promising results for quantifying the effects of land use change and climate variability on mean annual streamflow of catchments within the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Land‐cover/climate changes and their impacts on hydrological processes are of widespread concern and a great challenge to researchers and policy makers. Kejie Watershed in the Salween River Basin in Yunnan, south‐west China, has been reforested extensively during the past two decades. In terms of climate change, there has been a marked increase in temperature. The impact of these changes on hydrological processes required investigation: hence, this paper assesses aspects of changes in land cover and climate. The response of hydrological processes to land‐cover/climate changes was examined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and impacts of single factor, land‐use/climate change on hydrological processes were differentiated. Land‐cover maps revealed extensive reforestation at the expense of grassland, cropland, and barren land. A significant monotonic trend and noticeable changes had occurred in annual temperature over the long term. Long‐term changes in annual rainfall and streamflow were weak; and changes in monthly rainfall (May, June, July, and September) were apparent. Hydrological simulations showed that the impact of climate change on surface water, baseflow, and streamflow was offset by the impact of land‐cover change. Seasonal variation in streamflow was influenced by seasonal variation in rainfall. The earlier onset of monsoon and the variability of rainfall resulted in extreme monthly streamflow. Land‐cover change played a dominant role in mean annual values; seasonal variation in surface water and streamflow was influenced mainly by seasonal variation in rainfall; and land‐cover change played a regulating role in this. Surface water is more sensitive to land‐cover change and climate change: an increase in surface water in September and May due to increased rainfall was offset by a decrease in surface water due to land‐cover change. A decrease in baseflow caused by changes in rainfall and temperature was offset by an increase in baseflow due to land‐cover change. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Variations in streamflows of five tributaries of the Poyang Lake basin, China, because of the influence of human activities and climate change were evaluated using the Australia Water Balance Model and multivariate regression. Results indicated that multiple regression models were appropriate with precipitation, potential evapotranspiration of the current month, and precipitation of the last month as explanatory variables. The NASH coefficient for the Australia Water Balance Model was larger than 0.842, indicating satisfactory simulation of streamflow of the Poyang Lake basin. Comparison indicated that the sensitivity method could not exclude the benchmark‐period human influence, and the human influence on streamflow changes was overestimated. Generally, contributions of human activities and climate change to streamflow changes were 73.2% and 26.8% respectively. However, human‐induced and climate‐induced influences on streamflow were different in different river basins. Specifically, climate change was found to be the major driving factor for the increase of streamflow within the Rao, Xin, and Gan River basins; however, human activity was the principal driving factor for the increase of streamflow of the Xiu River basin and also for the decrease of streamflow of the Fu River basin. Meanwhile, impacts of human activities and climate change on streamflow variations were distinctly different at different temporal scales. At the annual time scale, the increase of streamflow was largely because of climate change and human activities during the 1970s–1990s and the decrease of streamflow during the 2000s. At the seasonal scale, climate change was the main factor behind the increase of streamflow in the spring and summer season. Human activities increase the streamflow in autumn and winter, but decrease the streamflow in spring. At the monthly scale, different influences of climate change and human activities were detected. Climate change was the main factor behind the decrease of streamflow during May to June and human activities behind the decrease of streamflow during February to May. Results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for basin‐scale water resources management under the influence of climate change and human activities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activity on the hydrological processes in river basins is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining local economic development. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate variability and human activity on mean annual flow in the Wei River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and wavelet transform were applied to detect the variations of hydrometeorological variables in the semiarid Wei River basin in the northwestern China. The identifications were based on streamflow records from 1958 to 2008 at four hydrological stations as well as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 21 climate stations. A simple method based on Budyko curve was used to evaluate potential impacts of climate change and human activities on mean annual flow. The results show that annual streamflow decreased because of the reduced precipitation and increased PET at most stations. Both annual and seasonal precipitation and PET demonstrated mixed trends of decreasing and increasing, although significant trends (P < 0.05) were consistently detected in spring and autumn at most stations. Significant periodicities of 0.5 and 1 year (P < 0.05) were examined in all the time series. The spectrum of streamflow at the Huaxian station shows insignificant annual cycle during 1971–1975, 1986–1993 and 1996–2008, which is probably resulted from human activities. Climate variability greatly affected water resources in the Beiluo River, whereas human activities (including soil and water conservation, irrigation, reservoirs construction, etc.) accounted more for the changes of streamflow in the area near the Huaxian station during different periods. The results from this article can be used as a reference for water resources planning and management in the semiarid Wei River basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
人工神经网络模型预测气候变化对博斯腾湖流域径流影响   总被引：9，自引：3，他引：6  
陈喜  吴敬禄  王玲 《湖泊科学》2005,17(3):207-212
温室气体排放量增加造成气候变化,对全球资源环境产生重要影响．本文利用人工神经网络模型建立月降水、气温与径流关系,利用开都河流域降水、气温、径流资料对模型进行训练和验证,通过试算法确定网络模型结构,气温升高和降水量增加对径流影响的敏感程度分析表明,气温升高和降水增加对该区域径流影响较大,且气温升高的影响更为显著,径流增加主要集中在夏季,根据区域气候模型（RCMs）推算的CO2加倍情况下西北地区气候的可能变化,预测位于博斯腾湖流域的开都河大山口站年径流量增加38．6％,其中夏季增加71．8％,冬季增加11．4％。  相似文献   

18.
量化气候变化和人类活动对流域水文影响及其对流域水资源规划和管理具有重要的理论与现实意义.采用水文模型和多元回归法定量分析气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖"五河"径流的影响,并通过与灵敏度分析法对比来进一步验证分析结果 .研究表明,1970-2009年,气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流增加的贡献率分别为73%和27%.气候变化是饶河、信江和赣江径流增加的主导因素,而人类活动是修水径流增加的主要因素,是抚河径流减少的主要原因.另外,不同季节影响径流变化的主导因素又有不同,人类活动为干季(11月到次年2月)径流增加和湿季(4-6月)径流减小的主导因素,其贡献率分别为78.9%和82.7%.本研究可为鄱阳湖流域防洪抗旱及水资源优化配置提供重要科学依据.  相似文献   

19.
Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
《国际泥沙研究》2019,34(4):307-321
This paper uses monthly streamflow, suspended sediment concentration, and meteorological data to examine the impact of human activity and climate change on streamflow and sediment load in the Pearl River basin from the 1950 s to the 2000 s. The influences of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes were quantitatively evaluated using the Mann–Kendall abrupt change test and power rating curves. The results showed that:(1) abrupt changes and turning points in streamflow occurred in 1963, 1983, and 1991 which were found to be consistent with global ENSO events and volcanic eruptions. However, abrupt changes in sediment load showed significant spatial differences across the Pearl River basin. For the Xijiang River, an abrupt change in sediment load occurred in 2002,and after 2007 the change becomes significant at the 95% confidence level. At Beijiang and Dongjiang,abrupt changes in sediment load occurred in 1998 and 1988, respectively.(2) The time series of sediment load data was divided into four periods according to abrupt changes. The contribution of climate change and human activities is different in the different rivers. For the Xijiang River, compared with the first period, climate change and human activities contributed 83% and 17%, respectively, to the increasing sediment load during the second period. In the third period, the variation of sediment load followed a decreasing trend. The contribution from climate change and human activities also changed to + 236% and - 136%, respectively. In the fourth period, climate change and human activities contributed - 32% and﹢ 132%, respectively. Meanwhile, For the Beijiang River, climate change and human activities contributed 90% and 10% in the second period, the contribution of climate change increased to + 115% and human activities decreased to - 15% in the third period. In the fourth period, the value for climate change decreased to + 36% and human activities increased to + 64%. For the Dongjiang River, the contribution of human activities was from 74.5% to 90%, and the values for climate change were from 11% to 25%. Therefore, the effect of human activity showed both spatial and temporal differences, and it seems likely that the decreased sediment load will continue to be controlled mainly by human activities in the future.  相似文献   

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