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1.
利用1978—2007年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、中国160站月平均降水资料,采用SVD方法分析了东亚地区低频振荡强度与中国夏季降水异常的联系。结果表明:东亚地区低频振荡强度年际变化与中国夏季降水异常分布密切相关,其前3个模态分别对应的降水型:江淮型、华南型及长江中下游型。根据前3个模态分别定义低频振荡强度指数,选定异常年份对相关要素进行合成差值分析发现:“江淮型”高低指数年西太平洋海域的低频环流、对流、热源呈现南北向的反位相分布特征,江淮流域位于异常较强的两个相反性质的低频气团系统之间的气流交汇带;而东亚副热带地区东西向系统波动对“华南型”降水有重要作用,华南地区的局地对流加热对降水异常的发生影响显著;“长江中下游”降水型不仅受西太平洋海区低频环流、热源的影响,热带中太平洋的对流活动与长江中下游地区降水也有重要联系。 相似文献
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利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和观测的台站降水资料研究了1991年梅雨期间江淮洪涝区降水的季节内振荡及其环流特征,着重考察了不同层次副热带高压的低频变化与降水的关系。小波分析表明1991年江淮梅雨期间降水低频振荡的主周期是15~35 d。在低空,15~35 d振荡以异常反气旋(气旋)的形式在中国东南沿海地区交替出现,调控着西太平洋副热带高压进入(退出)南海。低空的这种低频环流型与高空的偶极型涡旋对相耦合,偶极型涡旋对使得南亚高压东伸(西退),形成有利(不利)江淮流域降水的环流形势。江淮流域降水的低频振荡与500hPa北太平洋副热带高压的低频变化及其传播密切相关。当北太平洋西部的位势高度偏高、中部位势高度偏低时,江淮流域降水偏多;反之偏少。这种低频振荡可能起源于北太平洋中部夏威夷群岛附近,然后沿着副热带高压脊线附近向西传播到中国东南沿海。 相似文献
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利用1961—2010年中国756站逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,分析了江淮流域梅雨期降水与10～30 d低频振荡的关系。结果表明,梅雨偏多年降水具有明显的10～30 d的周期变化,低频振荡经向上的北传和纬向上的西传与江淮流域梅雨期降水的活跃及中断关系密切。在梅雨偏多年,低层10～30 d振荡主要通过南海低频反气旋和日本海低频气旋对江淮流域降水产生影响,并调控着西太平洋副热带高压的西进、东退,进而影响输送到江淮流域的水汽强度及冷暖空气在江淮流域的汇合;而高层,亚洲大陆中纬度地区东西向的低频气旋和反气旋影响着南亚高压的位置,从而形成江淮流域低频降水的强弱变化。 相似文献
4.
江淮流域梅雨期降水与10—30d低频振荡的联系 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1961--2010年中国756站逐日降水资料和NCEP／NCAR逐日再分析资料,分析了江淮流域梅雨期降水与10～30d低频振荡的关系。结果表明,梅雨偏多年降水具有明显的10～30d的周期变化,低频振荡经向上的北传和纬向上的西传与江淮流域梅雨期降水的活跃及中断关系密切。在梅雨偏多年,低层10～30d振荡主要通过南海低频反气旋和日本海低频气旋对江淮流域降水产生影响,并调控着西太平洋副热带高压的西进、东退,进而影响输送到江淮流域的水汽强度及冷暖空气在江淮流域的汇合;而高层,亚洲大陆中纬度地区东西向的低频气旋和反气旋影响着南亚高压的位置,从而形成江淮流域低频降水的强弱变化。 相似文献
5.
东亚海陆热力差指数及其与环流和降水的年际变化关系 总被引：32，自引：3，他引：32
利用 196 1～ 1999年海温和地温月平均资料 ,定义了一个海陆热力差指数 ,来表示东亚季风环流的纬向和经向海陆热力差异的变化强度 ,研究了夏季指数与东亚夏季风环流场和中国东部夏季降水的年际变化关系。结果表明 :(1)海陆热力差指数可用来表示东亚夏季风的强弱变化。强指数年东亚季风区低空西南夏季风气流和高层的东风气流明显偏强 ,表明这一年夏季风偏强 ,弱指数年反之。 (2 )海陆热力差指数能较好地反映东部季风区夏季降水的异常状况。强指数年 ,雨带偏北 ,江淮流域和长江中下游明显干旱 ,华南、华北降水偏多 ,弱指数年反之。这一降水异常特征可以从强弱海陆热力差指数年的环流场得到解释。 (3)海陆热力差指数所反映的东亚夏季风具有明显的准 2a和 3～ 6a周期的年际振荡 ,但其振幅和周期具有显著的年代际异常 相似文献
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利用1979-2009年夏季(6-8月)中国气象观测站点逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料以及向外长波辐射资料等,选取低频降水事件来表征江淮流域夏季持续性强降水,然后分析其基本特征及伴随的低频大气环流形势,利用位相合成的方法对该低频信号的来源和传播特征进行研究.结果表明:江淮流域夏季持续性强降水在6-7月份发生次数较多;在持续性强降水期间,江淮流域低层受低频气旋控制,南海至菲律宾海一带则是很强的低频反气旋,该低频反气旋西侧,向北的低频水汽输送将水汽不断送至江淮流域形成辐合;与持续性强降水相关联的850 hPa上的低频信号,来源于黄河河套地区低频振荡的东南向传播和西北太平洋上空低频振荡的西北向传播;在高层,当持续性强降水发生时,江淮流域的西北侧(37.5°N,80 ～100°E)附近为强烈的低频气旋式环流,紧邻该环流的西北侧,则是一个低频反气旋,两者同南海—菲律宾海一带的低频反气旋构成了一个西北—东南向的低频波列;西太平洋副热带高压和南亚高压在持续性强降水期间表现出了显著的相向而行、相背而去的特征. 相似文献
7.
基于1986—2015年湖南逐日降水资料、同期美国气象环境预报中心(NCEP)和美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)再分析资料,通过分析强低频振荡年的汛期强降水特征和低频环流场演变对强降水的影响,建立了湖南省汛期延伸期强降水过程预报指数。结果表明:(1)汛期33%的强降水过程均发生在具有显著30~60 d低频振荡的年份中,且大多位于低频降水峰值阶段。(2)通过对强低频振荡年进行合成发现,在活跃位相,南亚高压偏强偏东,副热带高压偏西偏强,这种环流配置导致中国南方大部分地区的高层环流为辐散,底层环流为辐合,有利于降水的产生。在中断位相,南亚高压呈东西带状分布且其位置偏西、强度偏弱,副热带高压偏东偏弱,使得向湖南地区输送水汽的西南气流减弱,进入降水中断期。(3)基于低频散度场不同位相的变化特征,选取了与低频降水相关的两个关键区,从而建立延伸期预报指数,该指数对低频降水显著年的强降水回报准确率能够达到73%。(4)前期4月黑潮的海温异常(SSTA)可作为湖南省强低频振荡年的预测指标。 相似文献
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运用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中国气候中心整编的160站月平均降水资料应用经验正交函数、线性相关分析等,分析了江淮地区夏季降水异常特征及其与西印度洋区域大气环流年际异常关系的变化及其可能的机理。结果表明:当500 hPa中纬度低槽活动偏多(少),西太平洋副热带高压偏强(弱),东亚夏季风偏强(弱)时,江淮地区降水偏多(少)。进一步分析还发现西印度洋上空的垂直环流与江淮夏季降水存在较好的关系,但这种年际异常之间的联系受到背景场的影响明显:1979—1993年西印度洋垂直上升运动与江淮夏季降水的变化趋势基本相反,两者线性相关系数为-0.43;1994—2010年两者的变化趋势基本一致,相关系数达0.71。即当西印度洋地区存在环流异常下沉(上升)时,西太平洋副热带高压通常异常减弱东退(增强西伸),副热带季风减弱(增强),有利于雨带偏南(北)。因此,在西太平洋副热带高压和副热带季风年代际偏强(弱)阶段,西印度洋环流与江淮夏季降水呈负(正)相关。 相似文献
9.
洞庭湖流域夏季降水特征及旱涝年份大气环流分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于洞庭湖流域96个气象站点1961-2015年逐月降水数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对洞庭湖流域55年夏季降水的时空变化与典型夏涝年、夏旱年的大气环流特征进行分析。结果表明:55a间流域夏季降水存在明显的年际和年代际变化特征,存在准3a和20a周期。流域夏季平均降水量呈现由中北部平原地区向四周山区递增的空间分布特征。从大气环流和水汽输送及辐合形势来看,典型夏涝(旱)年,对应着西北太平洋副热带高压面积偏大、强度偏强和流域上空水汽的异常辐合(辐散)。 相似文献
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11.
Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Meridional Wind Field over the Subtropical Northern Pacific 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis I daily data from 1958 to 2002, climatic characteristics of the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) of the zonal wind (u), meridional wind (v), and geopotential height (h) over global areas and especially the ISO of v over the subtropical northern Pacific are analyzed using the space-time spectrum analysis and wavelet transform methods. The results show that the ISO of v is very different from those of u and h, with the former representing the meridional low-frequency disturbances, which are the most active in the subtropics and mid-high latitudes, but very weak in the tropics. In the subtropical Northern Hemisphere, the energies of the ISOs of u and h are both concentrated on the waves with wave number of 1 and periods of 30-60 days, while the main energy of the ISO of v is concentrated on the waves with wave numbers of 4-6 and periods of 30-60 and 70-90 days. The westward propagating energies for the 30-60-day oscillations of u, v, and h are all stronger than the eastward propagating energies in the subtropics. In addition, the ISO of v is the strongest (weakest) in summer (winter) over the subtropics of East Asia and northwestern Pacific, while the situation is reversed over the subtropical northeastern Pacific, revealing a "seesaw" of the ISO intensity with seasons over the subtropics from the northwestern to northeastern Pacific. In the subtropical northwestern Pacific, the interannual and interdecadal changes of the ISO for v at 850 hPa indicate that its activities are significantly strong during 1958 1975, while obviously weak during 1976-1990, and are the strongest during 1991-2000, and its spectral energy is obviously abnormal but ruleless during the ENSO periods. However, in the 2 7-yr bandpass filtering series, the interannual changes of the v ISO over the subtropical northwestern Pacific contain distinct ENSO signals. And in the 9-yr low-pass filtering series, the v ISO changes over the subtropical northwestern Pacific are significantly out of phase with the changes of the Ni(n)o -3.4 SST, whereas the v ISO changes in the subtropical northeastern Pacific are significantly in phase with the changes of the Ni(n)o-3.4 SST. 相似文献
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Impacts of 30-60-Day Oscillations over the Subtropical Pacific on the East Asian Summer Rainfall 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The relationships between the precipitation over East Asia (20°-45°N,110°-135°E) and the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the Pacific during the boreal summer are studied in the paper.The daily wind and height fields of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the 24-h precipitation data of 687 stations in China during 1958-2000,and the pentad precipitation of CMAP/NOAA from 1979 to 2002 are all analyzed by the space-time filter method.The analysis results,from every drought and flood summer in four different regions of East Asia respectively during 1958-2000,have shown that the flood (drought) in the East Asian summer monsoon region is absolutely companied with the strongly (weakly) westward propagations of ISO from the central-east Pacific,and depends little on the intensity changes of the East Asian summer monsoon. And the westward ISO is usually the low-frequency cyclones and anticyclones from the Bay of Alaska in northeastern Pacific and the Okhotsk in the northwestern Pacific of mid-high latitudes,and the ISO evolving in subtropical easterlies.In mid-high latitudes the phenomena are related to the westward propagating mid- ocean trough and the retreat of blocking high.Therefore the westward propagating ISO from the central-east Pacific to East Asia is indispensable for more rainfall occurring in East Asia in summer,which results from the long-wave adjustment process in the mid-high latitudes and ISO evolving in tropical easterlies. 相似文献
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北半球副热带—中纬度太平洋大气季节内扰动的纬向传播与东亚夏季旱涝 总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15
用时空滤波和Morlet小波方法,分析了1958—2000年夏季东亚(20°—45°N,110°—135°E)不同纬带(由南到北分为4个区域)的降水分别与太平洋同一纬带上大气30—60 d振荡(ISO)沿纬圈传播的关系及其成因机制。发现太平洋上经向风ISO向西传播的强或弱,是东亚夏季风区降水偏多或偏少的必要条件。对逐年夏季的分析表明,无论当年东亚夏季风强与否,在所划分的几个东亚季风区所有涝的年份里,太平洋同一纬带上大气ISO向西传播都明显较强,而在这些区域绝大多数旱的年份里,相应的ISO向西传播明显较弱。进一步分析发现,经向风ISO的纬向传播对应着大气经向型环流系统的移动,向西传影响东亚夏季风区降水的ISO有来自低纬中东太平洋东风流中的低频气旋(如副热带东风带中ISO的演变);也有来自中高纬度阿拉斯加湾及鄂霍次克海一带低频低压(如洋中槽)和高压(如阻塞高压和东北太平洋高压)的向南向西频散。因此东亚夏季旱涝不但与热带季风有关,而且与中东太平洋副热带东风系统中ISO的向西传播、中高纬度长波调整时低频扰动向西南经北太平洋副热带的传播密切相关。 相似文献
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2007年淮河强降水时期低频环流特征 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及中国气象台站降水资料,研究了2007年夏季淮河流域强降水的低频振荡及其环流特征。结果表明,2007年夏季淮河流域强降水低频振荡的主要周期是10 25天。淮河流域降水强弱与对应低频周期存在联系,降水主要发生在低频周期的正位相时期,而在负位相时期结束或明显减弱。降水的低频变化一方面与副热带高压和南亚高压的低频变化有关,另一方面还受到中高纬度冷空气低频变化的影响。在低频周期的峰值位相,对流层高层出现的低频反气旋使南亚高压偏东,脊线偏北,并有利于西太平洋副热带高压向更西、更北的方向发展,整个对流层垂直方向上有低频的上升运动。中高纬地区出现大片正位势涡度,冷空气的低频活动显著偏强,南下侵入到中国淮河流域的冷空气较多,形成有利于淮河流域强降水的环流场。相反,在低频周期的谷值位相,对流层高层出现的低频气旋使南亚高压偏西,脊线偏南,不利于西太平洋副热带高压向更西、更北的方向发展,整个对流层垂直方向上有低频的下沉运动。高纬度冷空气的低频活动偏弱,南下侵入到中国淮河流域的冷空气也较少,最终形成不利于淮河流域强降水的环流场。 相似文献
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2003年江淮流域强降水过程与30—70d天低频振荡的联系 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8
利用NCEP／NCAR再分析和地面观测站的逐日降水资料,研究了2003年夏季江淮流域强降水过程与低频振荡的联系。结果显示,主周期为30～70d的低频振荡对2003年江淮流域暴雨的形成具有重要贡献：低频涡旋在江淮地区降水期的对流层高、低层呈负、正配置,具有斜压结构,利于降水发生;850hPa上正涡度系统的传播具有明显的北传和西传特征;存在于西太平洋、西北太平洋及其以东地区的低频波列（P—J）的活动过程影响了我国2003年江淮低频强降水的形成;整层低频水汽通量显示来自副热带高压外围的西南季风对水汽输送的贡献较显著,且2003年江淮地区30-70d时间尺度上降水的水汽来源为南海而非孟加拉湾或西太平洋。 相似文献
16.
Based on the daily reanalysis data from NCEP NCAR and daily precipitation data from the China National Meteorological Information Center,an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is employed to extract the predominant oscillation modes of the East Asia Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern.The influences of these low-frequency modes on persistent heavy precipitation in the Yangtze Huai River(YHR)valley are investigated.The results indicate that the EAP pattern and rainfall in YHR valley both exhibit remarkable 10 30- and 30 60-day oscillations.The impacts of the EAP pattern on the YHR persistent heavy precipitation can be found on both the 10 30- and 30 60-day timescales the 10 30-day scale for most cases.Composite analysis indicates that,on the 10 30-day timescale,formation of the EAP pattern in the lower and middle troposphere is determined by convective systems near the tropical western Pacific;whereas in the middle troposphere,the phase transition is jointly contributed by both the dispersion of zonal wave energies at higher latitudes and convective systems over the South China Sea.In the context of the10 30-day EAP pattern,the anomalously abundant moisture is transported by an anomalous subtropical anticyclone system,and strong moisture convergence results from that anomalous anticyclone system and a cyclonic system in the midlatitude East Asia.Such a combination of systems persists for at least three days,contributing to the formation of persistent heavy precipitation in the YHR valley. 相似文献
17.
利用1979~2013年中国站点逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对长江中下游夏季降水的季节内振荡最显著周期进行了分析研究。结果表明长江中游最显著周期为10~30天,长江下游最显著周期为30~60天。为了揭示这种差异产生的物理原因,进一步利用位相合成的方法对这两个区域不同周期的季节内振荡降水、高低空风场和高度场以及垂直结构和水汽等循环过程的演变特征进行分析。在200 hPa环流场上,长江中游的降水主要受到高纬度自西向东传播的波列影响,而长江下游的降水与鄂霍次克海的高度场的变化相关。在风场的垂直涡度和散度的位相结构演变过程中,10~30天的垂直涡度和散度有自北向南的移动,30~60天的垂直涡度和散度在长江以南地区有自南向北的传播。水汽输送的位相发展过程表明,长江中游的水汽分别来自于南海的向北输送和长江以北地区向南的水汽输送;长江下游地区的水汽则主要来自于热带东印度洋经孟加拉湾的向东输送并在南海的北向输送,以及西太平洋水汽向西输送到南海再向长江下游的输送。从高层大尺度环流场和整层积分的水汽通量输送上解释了长江中游10~30天降水的自北向南移动,和长江下游30~60天降水自南向北传播的原因。 相似文献
18.
Low-frequency oscillations of the East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern and their impacts on persistent heavy precipitation in the Yangtze–Huai River valley 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Based on the daily reanalysis data from NCEP NCAR and daily precipitation data from the China National Meteorological Information Center,an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is employed to extract the predominant oscillation modes of the East Asia Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern.The influences of these low-frequency modes on persistent heavy precipitation in the Yangtze Huai River(YHR)valley are investigated.The results indicate that the EAP pattern and rainfall in YHR valley both exhibit remarkable 10 30- and 30 60-day oscillations.The impacts of the EAP pattern on the YHR persistent heavy precipitation can be found on both the 10 30- and 30 60-day timescales the 10 30-day scale for most cases.Composite analysis indicates that,on the 10 30-day timescale,formation of the EAP pattern in the lower and middle troposphere is determined by convective systems near the tropical western Pacific;whereas in the middle troposphere,the phase transition is jointly contributed by both the dispersion of zonal wave energies at higher latitudes and convective systems over the South China Sea.In the context of the10 30-day EAP pattern,the anomalously abundant moisture is transported by an anomalous subtropical anticyclone system,and strong moisture convergence results from that anomalous anticyclone system and a cyclonic system in the midlatitude East Asia.Such a combination of systems persists for at least three days,contributing to the formation of persistent heavy precipitation in the YHR valley. 相似文献
19.
On the relationship between the winter Eurasian teleconnection pattern and the following summer precipitation over China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Eurasian teleconnection pattern(EU) is an important low-frequency pattern with well-known impacts on climate anomalies in Eurasia. The difference of low-level v-winds in several regions in the Eurasian mid–high latitudes is defined as the EU index(EUIV). In this study, the relationship between the winter EUIVand precipitation in the following summer over China is investigated. Results show that there is a significant positive(negative) correlation between the winter EUIVand the following summer precipitation over North China(the Yangtze River–Huaihe River basins). Meanwhile, an interdecadal variability exists in the interannual relationship, and the correlation has become significantly enhanced since the early 1980 s.Thus, the proposed EUIVmay have implications for the prediction of summer precipitation anomalies over China. In positive winter EUIVyears, three cyclonic circulation anomalies are observed—over the Ural Mountains, the Okhotsk Sea, and the subtropical western North Pacific. That is, the Ural blocking and Okhotsk blocking are inactive, zonal circulation prevails in the mid–high latitudes, and the western Pacific subtropical high tends to be weaker and locates to the north of its normal position in the following summer. This leads to above-normal moisture penetrating into the northern part of East China, and significant positive(negative) precipitation anomalies over North China(the Yangtze River–Huaihe River basins), and vice versa. Further examination shows that the SST anomalies over the Northwest Pacific and subtropical central North Pacific may both contribute to the formation of EUIV-related circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific. 相似文献