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1.
利用探空数据分析云垂直结构的方法及其应用研究 总被引：13，自引：3，他引：10
云的垂直结构特征,无论是对天气、气候还是人工影响天气都十分重要,但业务上直接有效的观测手段十分缺乏。本文通过对比分析,确定了相对湿度阈值法分析云垂直结构的方法;利用我国气象业务探空秒数据,计算分析了不同云垂直结构,将得到的分析结果同CloudSat云雷达实测云垂直结构进行多个例的对比分析,验证了相对湿度阈值判断云垂直结构方法的可行性,及利用我国业务探空资料分析云结构的可用性;为业务应用,开发了探空秒数据的实时读取和计算方法,设计制作了云垂直结构探空分析显示图,初步形成基于我国业务探空的云结构分析技术;并实时将这些技术应用到我国60周年国庆期间几次不同天气系统云结构的时间和空间演变特征分析中,得到有意义的结果。 相似文献
2.
利用2021年9月9日—2022年1月31日泾河国家基本气象站毫米波云雷达（简称云雷达）的反射率因子及L波段探空雷达的温度、相对湿度数据,根据时空匹配方法,对比分析了二者探测和识别云的垂直结构特征（包括云底高度、云顶高度、云层数）的一致性。结果表明：云雷达和探空数据对低、中、高的单层云、双层云及临近降水云的垂直结构的识别结果基本一致;二者对于单层云的云底高度以及双、多层云的云顶高度识别一致性更好,探空识别的云底高度整体略高于云雷达的。引起二者识别云层数不一致的原因：一是因为低层相对湿度较大以及探空识别云算法的敏感性;二是当云体的结构松散时,加上探空漂移作用导致二者识别的云体不一致。在二者识别云层一致的情况下,识别单层云的垂直结构的差异是由于探空仪在低温条件的低敏感以及云雷达对高层薄云的探测能力引起;对于双层和多层云,主要是由于时空匹配方法对于短时间内垂直结构显著变化的云的识别还需要进一步改进。 相似文献
3.
L波段探空判别云区方法的研究 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
利用2008年1月到2009年12月的L波段探空资料,和与之时空匹配的Cloudsat云观测资料,首先分析了云内和云外相对湿度的累积频率分布,发现以75%作为相对湿度阈值判断云准确率可达81%。随后利用BS（Bias Score）和TS（Threat Score）评分方法,对不同相对湿度阈值进行评分分析,发现以81%作为相对湿度阈值TS评分可达0.66,为最高。接着利用BS和TS评分方法分不同高度对相对湿度阈值进行评分分析,发现随高度的增加该高度上具有最好TS评分的相对湿度阈值在减小。利用这些阈值对云判断时,总的TS评分高于0.6,且其准确率达到84%以上,比利用单一相对湿度阈值判断云准确率要高。最后对这些阈值进行优化,得到一套适合于我国L波段探空秒数据的云垂直结构的判别方法。 相似文献
4.
三维云场分布诊断方法的研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《高原气象》2015,(5)
利用2007-2008年Cloudsat云检测产品与ECMWF再分析资料的相对湿度进行统计分析,得出了中国云内外相对湿度判别阈值及其随高度的变化,提出了基于再分析资料的三维云场分布诊断方法,应用于实例三维云场诊断,并与卫星、雷达、地面云降水观测等资料进行了对比分析,得到的主要结论有:(1)Cloudsat云判别有效值20的云区位置与Cloudsat辅助产品给出的ECWMF再分析资料的相对湿度高值区有较好的时空对应;(2)不同高度范围的云内相对湿度都呈单峰型分布,峰值在相对湿度100%附近,晴空相对湿度受当地大气环境影响,各地各高度都有差别;(3)通过相对湿度对云区和晴空的TS评分测试,得出了诊断云区的相对湿度阈值及其垂直分布;(4)利用NCEP再分析资料对中国三维云场的分布进行个例诊断应用,与卫星、雷达和地面云降水观测的对比表明,云区附近的湿度梯度大,相对湿度阈值法诊断的云区总体比较稳定;(5)诊断的云区与上升气流区对应较好,云区和晴空的分布与卫星TBB观测大致对应,云厚(即云格点总数)与光学厚度和地面降水的分布比较一致;(6)云场垂直剖面可以清晰地看出其分布同天气系统的关系,诊断的云区与地面云观测比较一致,云层密实深厚的区域通常对应着地面降水;(7)单点的云垂直结构随时间演变与当地的雷达和地面云降水观测都比较一致。 相似文献
5.
利用2006—2015年辽宁沈阳站的L波段探空数据,探讨了相对湿度阈值法对沈阳地区云识别的可靠性,并基于该方法对云的垂直结构进行定量分析。结果表明:相对湿度阈值法识别沈阳地区云的正确率可达75%以上,与地面观测有较好的一致性。60.7%的探空曲线识别到云的存在,云的出现频率夏季最高,为75.7%,秋季最低,为52.6%。有云条件下,沈阳地区以单层云为主,只有夏季多层云的出现频率较单层云高,多层云的出现频率随层数增加而减小。云层的垂直分布随云层数目及季节变化差异显著。云层及云夹层的厚度主要在2 km以下,且随云层数目的增加而减小。 相似文献
6.
星载降水雷达机载校飞试验：地基多通道微波辐射计估算雷达路径积分衰减 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
介绍了在雷达观测降水试验中如何配合利用地基微波辐射计估算雷达路径积分衰减(PIA)的一种方法.所用的GPS高空探空资料和地基多通道微波辐射计的观测资料,均为中国首次星载降水雷达机载校飞试验中获得的数据.由于常规探空资料中没有云水含量的直接信息,因此,通过绝热液态水含量分析方法,从GPS探空数据中计算得到这些云参数值.用MWMOD进行亮温模拟并计算液态水含量.在晴空条件下,用该模式模拟了地基多通道微波辐射计12个通道的下行辐射亮温.通过设置相对湿度阈值,利用MWMOD模式自带的绝热液态水含量分析方法,从探空廓线中分析出液态水廓线,进而模拟出有云情况下的下行辐射亮温.辐射传输模式的模拟亮温和地基多通道微波辐射计观测亮温的对比表明,进行云分析之后的模拟亮温值更接近于实测值.由此,利用由辐射传输模式和地基微波辐射计,从探空廓线中分析出液态水廓线,计算出有云情况下的大气整层透过率,进而得到路径积分衰减,为降水雷达衰减订正提供一种有效手段. 相似文献
7.
针对北京南郊观象台的Ka波段毫米波雷达以及L波段探空设备的观测原理和特点,提出了适用于各设备的云垂直结构判定方法,并基于二者2016年12月13日至2017年3月13日长达91 d的时空同步观测数据,结合激光云高仪、葵花8卫星、全天空成像仪等多源辅助数据,对探空与毫米波雷达观测结果（包括云底高、云顶高、云层数等）进行了对比,并对云高偏差的原因进行了分析,结论如下:毫米波雷达与探空判定的云垂直结构普遍具有较好的一致性,统计时段探空观测云顶高度比毫米波雷达平均高422 m,而云底高度则平均偏低350.7 m,导致二者观测云高差异主要包括二者观测原理不同、探空仪湿延迟、气球漂移引起的时空匹配偏差、探空判识云高算法的局限性、降雨时毫米波雷达的衰减等多方面。 相似文献
8.
9.
毫米波测云雷达融化层自动识别技术 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
为了充分利用雷达数据中的融化层信息,通过分析融化层在反射率因子和线性退极化比(LDR)参量中的特性,结合国内某型毫米波测云雷达的特点,提出了一种融化层边界自动识别的技术。利用2010年5-10月国内某型毫米波测云雷达在杭州的探测资料及相应的探空资料,对识别结果以及算法中参数的敏感性进行了对比和分析。对比结果表明,该方法能有效识别亮带的存在,得到的融化层上边界平均高度与实测零度层高度的误差小于100 m。参数的敏感性分析表明,融化层在反射率和LDR中的特性存在差异,其厚度在600～1500 m。毫米波测云雷达距离分辨率高、LDR对融化层敏感以及使用反射率和LDR双重约束是识别出的融化层边界误差较小的原因。 相似文献
10.
基于新一代天气雷达三维组网产品,利用改进后的对流风暴跟踪(SCIT)算法,对2013年3月22日发生在江西省北部地区的一次降雹天气过程进行冰雹回波识别和跟踪分析。选用能反映冰雹云特征的6个基于雷达反射率三维拼图的人工防雹作业指标,借助经验阈值形成人工防雹作业条件的模糊逻辑判断方法。以地面降雹实况记录为检验标准,对改进后的SCIT算法的识别结果进行检验。结果表明,改进后的SCIT算法共识别出可实施人工作业的冰雹云对流单体4个,不仅多于观测到的地面降雹站点数(3个),也多于未改进的SCIT算法识别出的冰雹云回波单体数,且识别出的位置与实况完全一致,表明应用改进后的SCIT算法有助于增强人工防雹作业的准确率。 相似文献
11.
The few systematic international comparisons of climate policy strength made so far have serious weaknesses, particularly those that assign arbitrary weightings to different policy instrument types in order to calculate an aggregate score for policy strength. This article avoids these problems by ranking the six biggest emitters by far – China, the US, the EU, India, Russia, and Japan – on a set of six key policy instruments that are individually potent and together representative of climate policy as a whole: carbon taxes, emissions trading, feed-in tariffs, renewable energy quotas, fossil fuel power plant bans, and vehicle emissions standards. The results cast strong doubt on any idea that there is a clear hierarchy on climate policy with Europe at the top: the EU does lead on a number of policies but so does Japan. China, the US, and India each lead on one area. Russia is inactive on all fronts. At the same time climate policy everywhere remains weak compared to what it could be.
Policy relevance
This study enables climate policy strength, defined as the extent to which the statutory provisions of climate policies are likely to restrict GHG emissions if implemented as intended, to be assessed and compared more realistically across space and time. As such its availability for the six biggest emitters, which together account for over 70% of global CO2 emissions, should facilitate international negotiations (1) by giving participants a better idea of where major emitters stand relative to each other as far as climate policy stringency is concerned, and (2) by identifying areas of weakness that need action. 相似文献
12.
Anthony H. McDaniel Chris A. Cantrell James A. Davidson Richard E. Shetter Jack G. Calvert 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1991,12(3):211-227
The infrared absorption cross-sections for eight commonly used halogenated methanes and ethanes have been measured as a function of temperature from 203 to 293 K. High resolution spectra (0.03 cm-1) have been used to derive integrated band strengths and peak cross-sections associated with the spectral features in the infrared region from 600 to 1500 cm-2. The values obtained in this study are compared to those from previous reports, and recommendations are made for uses in atmospheric sensing and radiative energy transfer models. The observed temperature dependence in the spectral features is also discussed. 相似文献
13.
Wind-Driven, Double-Gyre, Ocean Circulation in a Reduced-Gravity, 2.5-Layer, Lattice Boltzmann Model
A coupled lattice Boltzmann （LB） model with second-order accuracy is applied to the reduced-gravity, shallow water, 2.5-layer model for wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation. By introducing the secondorder integral approximation for the collision operator, the model becomes fully explicit. The Coriolis force and other external forces are included in the model with second-order accuracy, which is consistent with the discretization accuracy of the LB equation. The feature of the multiple equilibria solutions is found in the numerical experiments under different Reynolds numbers based on this LB scheme. With the Reynolds number increasing from 3000 to 4000, the solution of this model is destabilized from the anti-symmetric double-gyre solution to the subtropic gyre solution and then to the subpolar gyre solution. The transitions between these equilibria states are also found in some parameter ranges. The time-dependent variability of the circulation based on this LB simulation is also discussed for varying viscosity regimes. The flow of this model exhibits oscillations with different timescales varying from subannual to interannual. The corresponding statistical oscillation modes are obtained by spectral analysis. By analyzing the spatiotemporal structures of these modes, it is found that the subannual oscillation with a 9-month period originates from the barotropic Rossby basin mode, and the interarmual oscillations with periods ranging from 1.5 years to 4.6 years originate from the recirculation gyre modes, which include the barotropic and the baroclinic recirculation gyre modes. 相似文献
14.
利用常规观测资料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,通过对发生在江苏的三次不同量级的区域性暴雪、大雪和中雪过程典型个例进行对比分析,发现降雪时,700hPa低空急流的位置和强度是影响降雪量级的主要因素之一;降雪区上空涡度的垂直分布遵循低层负涡度、中层正涡度和高层负涡度的配置,暴雪时正涡度强且正涡度区最为深厚,动力抬升作用强,中雪发生时正涡度区相对最为浅薄,不利于形成强辐合抬升,动力抬升作用弱。且暴雪和大雪发生时基本上整层都为垂直螺旋度正值区,中雪时没有出现明显的正值区;暴雪和大雪过程时中低层都具有明显的逆温层,中高层西南急流造成的对流层中层的爆发性增温是逆温层形成的关键,中雪发生时不一定有逆温层结;降雪强度与湿位涡分量绝对值存在一定的正相关关系。 相似文献
15.
利用常规观测资料和NCEP/NCAR(1°×1°)逐6 h再分析资料,对承德市2017年5月5—6日大风天气的环流形势和物理量进行分析,结果表明气旋的快速发展(气旋加深率0.84 B)导致锋生加强,引发气压和变压梯度加大是导致大风的直接原因。500 hPa高压脊东移迫使冷空气向南堆积,高空槽不断发展成为冷涡,温度平流为地面气旋的发展提供热力条件,高低层涡度平流的差异,也是地面气旋快速发展的重要原因;当1.5 PVU位涡面伸展至对流层低层时,局地位涡异常在气旋的发展过程中不可忽视;高空急流出口区发生质量调整,出口区左侧的辐散强度达10×10~(-5) s~(-1),使低层大气减压,有利于气旋发展。 相似文献
16.
Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience science to practice: Pathways, players, and partnerships 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7
Coleen Vogel Susanne C. Moser Roger E. Kasperson Geoffrey D. Dabelko 《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(3-4):349-364
Vulnerability, adaptation and resilience are concepts that are finding increasing currency in several fields of research as well as in various policy and practitioner communities engaged in global environmental change science, climate change, sustainability science, disaster risk-reduction and famine interventions. As scientists and practitioners increasingly work together in this arena a number of questions are emerging: What is credible, salient and legitimate knowledge, how is this knowledge generated and how is it used in decision making? Drawing on important science in this field, and including a case study from southern Africa, we suggest an alternative mode of interaction to the usual one-way interaction between science and practice often used. In this alternative approach, different experts, risk-bearers, and local communities are involved and knowledge and practice is contested, co-produced and reflected upon. Despite some successes in the use and negotiation of such knowledge for ‘real’ world issues, a number of problems persist that require further investigation including the difficulties of developing consensus on the methodologies used by a range of stakeholders usually across a wide region (as the case study of southern Africa shows, particularly in determining and identifying vulnerable groups, sectors, and systems); slow delivery of products that could enhance resilience to change that reflects not only a lack of data, and need for scientific credibility, but also the time-consuming process of coming to a negotiated understanding in science–practice interactions and, finally, the need to clarify the role of ‘external’ agencies, stakeholders, and scientists at the outset of the dialogue process and subsequent interactions. Such factors, we argue, all hinder the use of vulnerability and resilience ‘knowledge’ that is being generated and will require much more detailed investigation by both producers and users of such knowledge. 相似文献
17.
Stephen F. Wathen 《Climatic change》2011,108(1-2):333-356
This paper provides both a detailed history of environmental change in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years and evidence for climate teleconnections between the Sierra Nevada and Greenland during the late Holocene. A review of Greenland ice core data suggests that the magnitudes of abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation increased beginning c. 3,700 and 3,000 years ago, respectively. Precipitation increased abruptly 1,300 years ago. Comparing paleotemperature data from Cirque Peak, CA with paleoprecipitation data from Pyramid Lake, NV suggests that hot temperatures occurred at the beginnings of most severe droughts in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years. Severe fires and erosion also occurred at Coburn Lake, CA at the beginning of all severe droughts in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years. This suggests that abrupt climate change during the late Holocene caused vegetation and mountain slopes in some areas to be out of equilibrium with abruptly changed climates. Finally, the ending of drought conditions in Greenland coincided with the beginning of drought conditions in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years, perhaps as a result of the rapidly changed locations of the Earth??s major precipitation belts during abrupt climate change events. 相似文献
18.
D.T. Patterson J.K. Westbrook R.J.V. Joyce† P.D. Lingren J. Rogasik 《Climatic change》1999,43(4):711-727
The geographic distribution, vigor, virulence, and agricultural impact of weeds, insects, and plant pathogens will be affected by climatic changes accompanying the global "greenhouse effect." Weed/crop competitive interactions, particularly among species differing in photosynthetic pathway (C3 v C4), may be altered, with the C3 species favored by increasing CO2. Physiological and biochemical changes induced in host crop plants by rising CO2 may affect feeding patterns of pest insects. Compilation of climatic thresholds for phenological development of pest insects reveals the potential for shifts in pest behavior induced by global warming and other climatic change. Generation times may be reduced, enabling more rapid population increases to occur. Poleward migration may be accelerated during the crop season. The epidemiology of plant diseases also will be altered. Prediction of disease outbreaks will be more difficult in periods of rapidly changing climate and unstable weather. Environmental instability and increased incidence of extreme weather may reduce the effectiveness of pesticides on targeted pests or result in more injury to non-target organisms. Biological control may be affected either negatively or positively. Overall, the challenge to agriculture from pests probably will increase. 相似文献
19.
B. Kochtubajda 《Atmospheric Research》1995,35(2-4)
Physical experiments designed to explore the potential of rain augmentation through airborne glaciogenic seeding on small, isolated non-precipitating cumuliform clouds near Red Deer, Alberta were carried out during the period 1982–1985. The microstructure of 90 cumulus congestus clouds have been documented through repeated in-situ sampling using a cloud physics instrumented aircraft platform. Observations from the inspection passes of 57 clouds seeded with either dry ice pellets or silver iodide pyrotechnics, and all the passes of 33 natural clouds are presented.Measurements of the cloud droplet concentration indicate that Alberta cumulus clouds are typically continental in nature, with an average droplet concentration of 535 cm−3 and an average droplet diameter of 10.6 μm. Alberta clouds have average liquid water contents of 0.57 g m−3, with a peak 1-sec value of 3.17 g m−3. The 1-km average liquid water contents are 0.83 g m−3, with a peak value of 2.81 g m−3. Cloud lifetimes vary between 11 and 20 minutes. Concentrations of naturally occurring ice crystals are found to be low. The average maximum 1-km ice concentration was 31−1, and the peak 1-km concentration was 73.11−1 in the natural cloud dataset. Evidence of precipitation-sized particles was detected in 21% (7 of 33) of the clouds, and precipitation below cloud base was detected in 6% (2 of 33) of the clouds.A comparison of the Alberta cloud characteristics to the cumulus clouds from different locations showed that there are some distinct differences between Alberta clouds and the clouds from the other regions. 相似文献
20.
Inequalities, institutions, and forest commons 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Krister AnderssonArun Agrawal 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):866-875
This paper contributes to a growing literature on the commons that examines the relationship between inequality and commons outcomes. Our analysis of evidence on forest commons outcomes in 228 cases from South Asia (India and Nepal), East Africa (Kenya and Uganda) and Latin America (Mexico and Bolivia) suggests that local governance and collective action matter in shaping how socioeconomic inequalities affect forest conditions. In particular, we find that both inter-group and intra-group economic inequalities have consistently negative effects on forest outcomes, but that effectively functioning local institutions for collective action dampen the negative effect of inter-group inequality on forest outcomes. 相似文献