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1.
Extratropical North Atlantic cooling has been tied to droughts over the Sahel in both paleoclimate observations and modeling studies. This study, which uses an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a slab ocean model that simulates this connection, explores the hypothesis that the extratropical North Atlantic cooling causes the Sahel droughts via an atmospheric teleconnection mediated by tropospheric cooling. The drying is also produced in a regional climate model simulation of the Sahel when reductions in air temperature (and associated geopotential height and humidity changes) from the GCM simulation are imposed as the lateral boundary conditions. This latter simulation explicitly demonstrates the central role of tropospheric cooling in mediating the atmospheric teleconnection from extratropical North Atlantic cooling. Diagnostic analyses are applied to the GCM simulation to infer teleconnection mechanisms. An analysis of top of atmosphere radiative flux changes diagnosed with a radiative kernel technique shows that extratropical North Atlantic cooling is augmented by a positive low cloud feedback and advected downstream, cooling Europe and North Africa. The cooling over North Africa is further amplified by a reduced greenhouse effect from decreased atmospheric specific humidity. A moisture budget analysis shows that the direct moisture effect and monsoon weakening, both tied to the ambient cooling and resulting circulation changes, and feedbacks by vertical circulation and evaporation augment the rainfall reduction. Cooling over the Tropical North Atlantic in response to the prescribed extratropical cooling also augments the Sahel drying. Taken together, they suggest a thermodynamic pathway for the teleconnection. The teleconnection may also be applicable to understanding the North Atlantic influence on Sahel rainfall over the twentieth century.  相似文献   

2.
This article presents the results of a study of the relationship between rainfall and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in East Africa and the Sahel. Monthly data for the years 1982 to 1985 have been analyzed. We have evaluated NDVI-rainfall relationships by vegetation type, using the major formations described by White (1983). In the article, a comparison of the differential response of vegetation growth to rainfall in the two study regions is emphasized. The most important conclusions of our research are as follows:
  1. The spatial patterns of annually-integrated NDVI closely reflect mean annual rainfall.
  2. There is a good relationship between rainfall variations and NDVI on seasonal and interannual time scales for areas where mean annual rainfall ranges from approximately 200 to 1200 mm.
  3. In most cases, NDVI is best correlated with the rainfall total for the concurrent plus two antecedent months; the correlation is better in the Sahel than in East Africa.
  4. The ratios of NDVI to rainfall are considerably higher in East Africa than in the Sahel.
  5. Mean annually-integrated NDVI is linearly related to mean annual rainfall in the Sahel. In East Africa the relationship is approximately log-linear; above some threshold value of rainfall, NDVI values level off and vary minimally with rainfall.
Two possible explanations of this last conclusion are suggested: above this threshold, rainfall is no longer the limiting factor in vegetation growth and/or NDVI is not a good indicator of vegetation growth. The latter is a likely possibility since NDVI directly reflects photosynthetic activity and becomes a poor indicator of biomass (i.e., growth) as high canopy densities are reached. The NDVI-rainfall relationship for East Africa is markedly similar to the relationship between NDVI and Leaf Area Index demonstrated by Sellers (1985) and Asrar et al. (1984).  相似文献   

3.
The regional model REMO, which is the atmospheric component of the coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean–land climate model system BALTIMOS, is tested with respect to its ability to simulate the atmospheric boundary layer over the open and ice-covered Baltic Sea. REMO simulations are compared to ship, radiosonde, and aircraft observations taken during eight field experiments. The main results of the comparisons are: (1) The sharpness and strength of the temperature inversion are underestimated by REMO. Over open water, this is connected with an overestimation of cloud coverage and moisture content above the inversion. (2) The vertical temperature stratification in the lowest 200 m over sea ice is too stable. (3) The horizontal inhomogeneity of sea ice concentration as observed by aircraft could not be properly represented by the prescribed ice concentration in REMO; large differences in the surface heat fluxes arise especially under cold-air advection conditions. The results of the comparisons suggest a reconsideration of the parameterization of subgrid-scale vertical exchange both under unstable und stable conditions.  相似文献   

4.
Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) is commonly used to model the wind-speed profile at altitudes relevant to wind-power production (e.g. 10–200 m). Though reasonably accurate for unstable to weakly stable stratification, this approach becomes less accurate under increasingly stable stratification, largely due to the constant-flux surface layer assumed by MOST becoming shallower than the altitude range of interest. Furthermore, above the surface layer, the Coriolis force has a considerable influence on the wind-speed profile (in particular in the formation of low-level jets) that cannot be modelled using similarity theory. Our goal is to compare the accuracy of alternative extrapolation models that are more physically appropriate above the surface layer. Using data from the 213-m Cabauw meteorological tower in the Netherlands between July 2007 and June 2008, it is shown that MOST is accurate only at low altitudes and low stability, and breaks down at high altitudes and high stability. Local similarity is generally more accurate than MOST across all altitudes and stabilities, though the model requires turbulent flux data at multiple altitudes that is generally impractical. In contrast, a two-layer MOST–Ekman model is found to be comparable to the other models at low stability ranges and considerably more accurate in the high stability range, while requiring only a measure of surface stability and the geostrophic wind.  相似文献   

5.
Most coupled general circulation models suffer from a prominent warm sea surface temperature bias in the southeast tropical Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa. The origin of the bias is not understood and remains highly controversial. Previous studies suggest that the origin of the bias stems from systematic errors of atmospheric models in simulating surface heat flux and coastal wind, or poorly simulated coastal upwelling. In this study, we show, using different reanalysis and observational data sets combined with a set of eddy-resolving regional ocean model simulations, that systematic errors in ocean models also make a significant contribution to the bias problem. In particular (1) the strong warm bias at the Angola-Benguela front that is maintained by the local wind and the convergence of Angola and Benguela Currents is caused by an overshooting of the Angola Current in ocean models and (2) the alongshore warm bias to the south of the front is caused by ocean model deficiencies in simulating the sharp thermocline along the Angola coast, which is linked to biases in the equatorial thermocline, and the complex circulation system within the Benguela upwelling zone.  相似文献   

6.
The preparation of time- and space-dependent input surface parameters for the climate model REMO was one task of the Baltimos project “Validation of Boundary Layer Parameters and Extension of Boundary conditions of Climate Model REMO”. The leaf area index (LAI) is one of these parameters. It is used in REMO as defined value per month for each land-use class with a defined seasonal trend during the year. Since 1982 at the Institute of Meteorology of the Free University Berlin, a high-resolved AVHRR data set of the NOAA satellite has been available (1/100 degree, approximately 1?×?1 km at nadir in a geographic coordination system) (Koslowsky 1996). The vegetation periods of the years 1997 until 2001 were selected from the dataset to estimate the LAI within the Baltimos region on the basis of an algorithm by Sellers et al. (J Climate 9:706–737, 1996) and a modified United States Geological Survey (USGS) land-use classification. The calculated high-resolved NOAA LAI values were converted to the 1/6 degree grid of the REMO climate model. Then, they were compared to the fixed LAI values, which are used in the model.  相似文献   

7.
This study investigates the global warming response of the Walker Circulation and the other zonal circulation cells (represented by the zonal stream function), in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models. The changes in the mean state are presented as well as the changes in the modes of variability. The mean zonal circulation weakens in the multi model ensembles nearly everywhere along the equator under both the RCP4.5 and SRES A1B scenarios. Over the Pacific the Walker Circulation also shows a significant eastward shift. These changes in the mean circulation are very similar to the leading mode of interannual variability in the tropical zonal circulation cells, which is dominated by El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. During an El Niño event the circulation weakens and the rising branch over the Maritime Continent shifts to the east in comparison to neutral conditions (vice versa for a La Niña event). Two-thirds of the global warming forced trend of the Walker Circulation can be explained by a long-term trend in this interannual variability pattern, i.e. a shift towards more El Niño-like conditions in the multi-model mean under global warming. Further, interannual variability in the zonal circulation exhibits an asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. El Niño anomalies are located more to the east compared with La Niña anomalies. Consistent with this asymmetry we find a shift to the east of the dominant mode of variability of zonal stream function under global warming. All these results vary among the individual models, but the multi model ensembles of CMIP3 and CMIP5 show in nearly all aspects very similar results, which underline the robustness of these results. The observed data (ERA Interim reanalysis) from 1979 to 2012 shows a westward shift and strengthening of the Walker Circulation. This is opposite to what the results in the CMIP models reveal. However, 75 % of the trend of the Walker Circulation can again be explained by a shift of the dominant mode of variability, but here towards more La Niña-like conditions. Thus in both climate change projections and observations the long-term trends of the Walker Circulation seem to follow to a large part the pre-existing dominant mode of internal variability.  相似文献   

8.
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9.
Previous studies have revealed some common biases in coupled general circulation model’s simulations of the East Asian (EA) winter monsoon (EAWM), including colder surface air temperature and more winter precipitation over the EA region. In this study, we examined 41 fully coupled atmosphere–ocean models from fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which will be widely used in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and address whether the current state-of-the-art CMIP5 models can characterise the climatology of the East Asian winter monsoon. We also compared the results with the models from third phase of CMIP, which was extensively used in the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. The results show that the cold surface air temperature (SAT) bias is lessened and the precipitation amount decreased with the current CMIP5 models. Moreover, the CMIP5 models performbetter at predicting surface winds and high-level jet streams than the CMIP3 models. Moreover, CMIP5 models show more model consistency in most EAWM parameters, and the interannual variability of the SAT is closer to the observations. We also examined the change in the radiation energy budget in the CMIP5 models and compared with CMIP3 models. Although the improvements are significant, deficiencies still exist in the simulation of the EAWM, e.g., the stronger EA major trough and the stronger zonal sea level pressure gradient.  相似文献   

10.
Using pentad rainfall data we demonstrate the benefits of using accumulated rainfall and fractional accumulated rainfall for the evaluation of the annual cycle of rainfall over various monsoon domains. Our approach circumvents issues related to using threshold-based analysis techniques for investigating the life-cycle of monsoon rainfall. In the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 models we find systematic errors in the phase of the annual cycle of rainfall. The models are delayed in the onset of summer rainfall over India, the Gulf of Guinea, and the South American Monsoon, with early onset prevalent for the Sahel and the North American Monsoon. This, in combination with the rapid fractional accumulation rate, impacts the ability of the models to simulate the fractional accumulation observed during summer. The rapid fractional accumulation rate and the time at which the accumulation begins are metrics that indicate how well the models concentrate the monsoon rainfall over the peak rainfall season, and the extent to which there is a phase error in the annual cycle. The lack of consistency in the phase error across all domains suggests that a “global” approach to the study of monsoons may not be sufficient to rectify the regional differences. Rather, regional process studies are necessary for diagnosing the underlying causes of the regionally-specific systematic model biases over the different monsoon domains. Despite the afore-mentioned biases, most models simulate well the interannual variability in the date of monsoon onset, the exceptions being models with the most pronounced dry biases. Two methods for estimating monsoon duration are presented, one of which includes nonlinear aspects of the fractional accumulation. The summer fractional accumulation of rainfall provides an objective way to estimate the extent of the monsoon domain, even in models with substantial dry biases for which monsoon is not defined using threshold-based techniques.  相似文献   

11.
This study set out to model potential date palm distribution under current and future climate scenarios using an emission scenario, in conjunction with two different global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS), and MIROC-H (MR), and to refine results based on suitability under four nonclimatic parameters. Areas containing suitable physicochemical soil properties and suitable soil taxonomy, together with land slopes of less than 10° and suitable land uses for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) were selected as appropriate refining tools to ensure the CLIMEX results were accurate and robust. Results showed that large regions of Iran are projected as likely to become climatically suitable for date palm cultivation based on the projected scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The study also showed CLIMEX outputs merit refinement by nonclimatic parameters and that the incremental introduction of each additional parameter decreased the disagreement between GCMs. Furthermore, the study indicated that the least amount of disagreement in terms of areas conducive to date palm cultivation resulted from CS and MR GCMs when the locations of suitable physicochemical soil properties and soil taxonomy were used as refinement tools.  相似文献   

12.
This study proposes an overview of the main synoptic, medium-range and intraseasonal modes of convection and precipitation in northern spring (March–June 1979–2010) over West and Central Africa, and to understand their atmospheric dynamics. It is based on daily National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outgoing longwave radiation and Cloud Archive User Service Tb convection data, daily TRMM and Global Precipitation Climatology Project rainfall products and daily ERA-Interim reanalysis atmospheric fields. It is first shown that mesoscale convective systems can be modulated in terms of occurrences number and intensity at such time scales. Based on empirical orthogonal function analyses on the 2–90-day filtered data it is shown that the main mode of convective and rainfall variability is located along the Guinean coast with a moderate to weak extension over Central Africa. Corresponding regressed deseasonalised atmospheric fields highlight an eastward propagation of patterns consistent with convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin wave dynamics. Then a singular spectrum analysis combined with a Hierarchical Ascendant Classification enable to define objectively the main spectral bands of variability within the 2–90-day band, and highlight three main bands, 2–8-, 8–22- and 20–90-day. Within these three bands, space–time spectral decomposition is used to identify the relative impacts of convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin, Rossby and inertia–gravity waves, as well as Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal. It confirms that eastward propagating signals (convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin wave and MJO) are highly dominant in these convection and precipitation variability modes over the Guinean coast during northern spring. So, while rain-producing individual systems are moving westward, their activity are highly modulated by sub-regional and regional scales envelops moving to the east. This is a burning issue for operational forecasting centers to be able to monitor and predict such eastward propagating envelops of convective activity.  相似文献   

13.
We present an assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of the 600,000 km2 Upper Paraguay River basin, located in central South America based on predictions of 20 Atmospheric/Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). We considered two climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and two 30-years time intervals centered at 2030 and 2070. Projected temperature and precipitation anomalies estimated by the AOGCMs for the study site are spatially downscaled. Time series of projected temperature and precipitation were estimated using the delta change approach. These time series were used as input to a detailed coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model aiming to estimate projected streamflow in climate change scenarios at several control points in the basin. Results show that impacts on streamflow are highly dependent on the AOGCM used to obtain the climate predictions. Patterns of temperature increase persist over the entire year for almost all AOGCMs resulting in an increase in the evapotranspiration rate of the hydrological model. The precipitation anomalies show large dispersion, being projected as either an increase or decrease in precipitation rates. Based on these inputs, results from the coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model show nearly one half of projections as increasing river discharge, and other half as decreasing river discharge. If the mean or median of the predictions is considered, no discernible change in river discharge should be expected, despite the dispersion among results of the AOGCMs that reached +/?10 % in the short horizon and +/? 20 % in the long horizon, at several control points.  相似文献   

14.
By using the monthly ERA-40 reanalysis data and observed rainfall data, we investigated the effect of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on the South Asian High (SAH) at 200 hPa, and the role played by the SAH in summer rainfall variation over China. It is found that in the interannual timescale the east–west shift is a prominent feature of the SAH, with its center either over the Iranian Plateau or over the Tibetan Plateau. When the ISM is stronger (weaker) than normal, the SAH shifts westward (eastward) to the Iranian Plateau (Tibetan Plateau). The east–west position of SAH has close relation to the summer rainfall over China. A westward (eastward) location of SAH corresponds to less (more) rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and more (less) rainfall in North China and South China. A possible physical process that the ISM affects the summer rainfall over China via the SAH is proposed. A stronger (weaker) ISM associated with more (less) rainfall over India corresponds to more (less) condensation heat release and anomalous heating (cooling) in the upper troposphere over the northern Indian peninsula. The anomalous heating (cooling) stimulates positive (negative) height anomalies to its northwest and negative (positive) height anomalies to its northeast in the upper troposphere, causing a westward (eastward) shift of the SAH with its center over the Iranian Plateau (Tibetan Plateau). As a result, an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) is formed over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and eastern China in the upper troposphere. The anomalous vertical motions in association with the circulation anomalies are responsible for the rainfall anomalies over China. Our present study reveals that the SAH may play an important role in the effect of ISM on the East Asian summer monsoon.  相似文献   

15.
Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
This paper introduces a framework for estimating stationary and non-stationary return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes using Bayesian inference. This framework is implemented in the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) software package, explicitly designed to facilitate analysis of extremes in the geosciences. In a Bayesian approach, NEVA estimates the extreme value parameters with a Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) approach for global optimization over the parameter space. NEVA includes posterior probability intervals (uncertainty bounds) of estimated return levels through Bayesian inference, with its inherent advantages in uncertainty quantification. The software presents the results of non-stationary extreme value analysis using various exceedance probability methods. We evaluate both stationary and non-stationary components of the package for a case study consisting of annual temperature maxima for a gridded global temperature dataset. The results show that NEVA can reliably describe extremes and their return levels.  相似文献   

16.
A composite analysis of Northern Hemisphere’s mid-winter tropospheric anomalies under the conditions of strong and weak stratospheric polar vortex was performed on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948 to 2013 considering, as additional grouping criteria, the coincidental states of major seasonally relevant climate phenomena, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi Biennial Oscillation and strong volcanic eruptions. The analysis reveals that samples of strong polar vortex nearly exclusively occur during cold ENSO states, while a weak polar vortex is observed for both cold and warm ENSO. The strongest tropospheric and near-surface anomalies are found for warm ENSO and weak polar vortex conditions, suggesting that internal tropospheric circulation anomalies related to warm ENSO constructively superpose on dynamical effects from the stratosphere. Additionally, substantial differences are found between the continental winter warming patterns under strong polar vortex conditions in volcanically-disturbed and volcanically-undisturbed winters. However, the small-size samples obtained from the multi-compositing prevent conclusive statements about typical patterns, dominating effects and mechanisms of stratosphere-troposphere interaction on the seasonal time scale based on observational/reanalysis data alone. Hence, our analysis demonstrates that patterns derived from observational/reanalysis time series need to be taken with caution as they not always provide sufficiently robust constraints to the inferred mechanisms implicated with stratospheric polar vortex variability and its tropospheric and near-surface signature. Notwithstanding this argument, we propose a limited set of mechanisms that together may explain a relevant part of observed climate variability. These may serve to define future numerical model experiments minimizing the sample biases and, thus, improving process understanding.  相似文献   

17.
Ground based measurements which were carried out in the Northern Sahel in southern Tunisia showed the following results:
  1. The albedo difference between ground and protected land is about 10%, half of the amount Charney (1975) used in his model.
  2. Bare soil is always warmer during times of bright sunshine than vegetated soil, which is in agreement with Jackson and Idso (1975). Temperature differences in excess of the 10 °C were observed between plants and the surrounding soil.
  3. For bare soil, the surface temperature increases with declining albedo. However the opposite holds true for plants. Here, when lowering the albedo, a decrease in temperature was found.
  4. In a sand dune field, the surface temperature depends strongly on the exposure. Surface temperature differences of 8 °C were observed for slopes of different exposures for measurements carried out around noon.
  相似文献   

18.
The Upper Brahmaputra River Basin is prone to natural disasters and environmental stresses (floods, droughts and bank erosion, delayed rainfall, among others) creating an environment of uncertainty and setting the basin back in terms of socio-economic development. The climate change literature shows that agriculture and ecosystems and their services are highly climate sensitive, yet they are the main sources of livelihood that supports a large proportion of residents of the tributaries of the Brahmaputra River Basin. The continuous depletion of ecosystems and loss of agricultural outputs resulting from environmental stressors has a substantial impact on the socio-economic wellbeing of the basins residents, particularly the vulnerable rural poor. This paper uses spatially explicit data from Census, Household Surveys and Earth Observation to develop a transferable methodological approach which investigates the extent of dependence on agriculture and ecosystems as a source of livelihood in the contrasting sub-basins of the Brahmaputra River in the State of Assam, India and Bhutan, and the risk to these livelihood dependencies in these sub-basins due to potential environmental impacts of climate change. The results from this study constitute a case study in the development of a systematic and spatially explicit set of tools that inform and assist policy makers in the appropriate interventions to secure the livelihood benefits of sustainably managed agriculture in the face of environmental change.  相似文献   

19.
Soil moisture variability of various spatial scales is analyzed based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method using soil moisture datasets with various spatial resolutions: 1 km eco-hydrological model simulation, 0.25° passive microwave (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System, AMSR-E) dataset, and 0.5° land surface model simulation from Climate Predictor Center (CPC). All three datasets generate EOFs that explain similar variances with those generated from in situ observations from agro-meteorological network. Using AMSR-E product and eco-hydrological model simulation, it is found that the primary spatial pattern of soil moisture obtained from watershed scale has a strong connection to topographic attributes, followed by soil texture and rainfall variability, as suggested by the correlation between the primary EOF mode (EOF1) of soil moisture and landscape attributes. However, the EOF analysis of both AMSR-E and CPC datasets at regional scale reaches the conclusion that soil texture indices, such as sand and clay content, is of higher importance to soil moisture EOF1 spatial pattern (explaining 61 % variance) than topography is. Furthermore, correlation between soil moisture EOF1 and soil property is higher in spring than in autumn, which indicates that soil water-holding and drainage capabilities are more important under dry conditions. At national scale, the combined effects of topographic feature and soil property are clearly exhibited in EOF1. The study results reveal that different emphases should be placed on accurate acquisition of landscape attributes for soil moisture estimation according to various spatial scales.  相似文献   

20.
Carried out is the modeling of the process of temperature variations in a droplet and possible ice coating under synoptic conditions observed in the Perm krai on December 14, 2010 that are characterized with the freezing rain fall at the temperature inversion in the atmospheric boundary layer. The phase transition on the moving water-ice interface, the curvature of the phase transition boundary, and variations of heat exchange on the boundary between the ice coating and atmosphere are taken into account. Computed is the thickness of the ice crust formed on fine droplets under conditions that provide the initiation of freezing precipitation. The evolution of the rate of the front of water crystallization on the droplet surface is defined and explained.  相似文献   

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