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1.
灰色关联度在云南烤烟种植适宜性分析中的应用   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
利用云南省125个气象观测站1971~2000年30年气象观测数据,采用距离平方反比法,对云南省各乡镇的相关气候要素进行推算,选取一个烟草最适宜种植生态气象条件的样本点,使用灰色关联度方法对云南省可植烟区县市和乡镇级尺度的烤烟种植适宜性进行分析,分别给出云南县市级和乡镇级烤烟种植适宜区的分布。结果表明,使用灰色关联度方法弥补了采用数理统计方法作系统分析所导致的缺憾,计算量小,使用方便,而且有效可行,获得的分析结果与烟草行业的多年工作实践结果较为相符。  相似文献   

2.
基于相关分析的日照市乡镇温度精细预报方法   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
利用日照市国家气象观测站(大监站)及分布在全市各乡镇的区域自动观测站近三年日温度极值数据,按区域、天气类型分类别进行相关分析,得到各区域自动站点与大监站日温度极值数据的相关方程,从而利用地市级台站对大监站点的常规温度预报数据得到各乡镇温度预报数值,使温度预报空间尺度达到乡镇一级。  相似文献   

3.
乡镇级气象灾害风险评估,是政府主导、部门联动、社会参与防御和应对气象灾害中最基础的一环,对基层灾害风险管理和灾害防御具有直接的指导意义。然而,乡镇行政单元往往空间区域较小,风险空间差异的反映需要有高精度的致灾因子、承灾体和灾情数据来支撑,而现阶段较为匮乏。为此,本研究拟通过阈值筛选、权重赋值及空间插值等地学统计方法,尝试建立一套在当前数据条件基础上,大致正确反映乡镇级别气象灾害风险空间格局的方法,并以浙江省永嘉县为例,对台风、暴雨、雷电、低温灾害进行了乡镇气象灾害风险评估,以期为各部门切实进行不同灾种的灾害防备和增强基层群众气象灾害风险防御行动提供科学依据。  相似文献   

4.
基于GIS的气象干旱评估系统研究——以山东省潍坊市为例   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
利用山东省潍坊市1971-2009年气象观测资料,以及各县市、乡镇街道的历史灾情记录和社会经济数据,选择适合研究区域的干旱判别指标,建立了干旱灾害评估模型。以Arc GIS9.3为开发平台,SQL Server 2005为干旱评估的信息数据库,并利用Delphi7.0等软件工具开发了基于GIS的潍坊市气象干旱评估系统,对研究区域进行干旱灾害预警和灾害损失评估。  相似文献   

5.
李星敏  董自鹏  赵奎锋  陈闯  彭艳 《气象》2022,48(5):647-657
利用2016年3月至2020年2月逐时气象和PM2.5质量浓度观测资料,依据《霾的观测和预报等级(QX/T 113—2010)》(以下简称2010行标)和《霾的观测识别》(GB/T 36542—2018)(以下简称2018国标)两种标准规定的判识方法,分析了在不同标准下陕西省霾出现频率的差异。结果表明:采用2018国标判识的霾出现频率明显多于采用2010行标的霾出现频率,若均以霾现象持续6 h及以上作为判定标准,则两者得到的霾日数相当。在80%≤相对湿度<95%时,用2018国标判识的霾出现频率比采用2010行标多,湿度越大,增加越明显;气溶胶吸湿性参数对吸湿增长后气溶胶消光系数的计算影响较大,使用2018国标时应注意该参数在各地的差异。在PM2.5≤75μg·m-3时,采用2018国标仍能识别出霾,显现出湿度对能见度的影响;在PM2.5>75μg·m-3时,当空气污染达到中度及以上时,两者差异缩小。陕西省各地市霾发生频率的月变化均呈现出“冬高夏低”的“U型”分布,...  相似文献   

6.
对潜在气象风险源的公众支付意愿评估   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
罗慧  苏德斌  丁德平  李彩莲  朱海利 《气象》2008,34(12):79-83
以高影响天气事件作为潜在气象风险源,综合应用12121气象电话拨打数据和气象信息,结合条件价值评估方法(CVM),评估社会公众对高影响天气事件发生时的支付意愿(WTP).以西安市为例,分类分析2004-2007年、与公众生活关系密切的高温、热浪、"桑拿天"、小雨、中雨、大到暴雨、雷暴、雪、雾(霾)和连阴雨等10类高影响天气事件,评估其风险超越概率、公众风险关注和支付意愿.结果表明,当降水类、高温类、雷暴和雾(霾)等潜在气象风险源发生时,西安老百姓意愿支付所产生的社会效益年平均值分别约为4973.394万元/年、1174.854万元/年、311.269万元/年和471.637万元/年.结论有利于定量判断公共气象服务的社会影响力.  相似文献   

7.
近十年连云港市霾变化特征及其气象条件分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
刘瑞翔  刘端阳  姚雷  朱云凤  颜佳任 《气象》2020,46(7):959-970
利用连云港市气象和环境监测数据,分析2008—2018年该地区霾的变化特征及其与气象要素的关系,中-重度霾发生的天气背景和污染物源地特征。主要得到以下结论:连云港主城区霾日数从2011年起逐年显著增加,2013—2015年达峰值,之后逐年减少;冬季霾出现最为频繁,其中1月重度霾日数最多;1~2 m·s~(-1)风速最利于该地区霾的形成;WNW、WSW和SSW三个风向下连云港主城区霾出现的频率最高,受地形和工业布局等因素影响,在自海上来的偏东风下该地区霾出现的频率也较高。相对湿度在70%~80%时,霾出现频率最高,但更高相对湿度更利于中-重度霾形成。PM_(2.5)浓度与能见度、风速和相对湿度等气象要素的相关性均大于PM_(10)。根据地面环流形势,可将连云港地区霾的天气背景分为低压倒槽型、锋前型、高压前部型、高压后部型和均压场型5种,其中均压场型占比最大,达35.8%。逆温层结对中-重度霾的形成有较好指示作用,08时和20时逆温出现的频次和强度均大于14时。轨迹聚类分析表明,不同天气型下中-重度霾对应气团的源地、路径和移动距离均有明显差异。  相似文献   

8.
根据贺州市4个国家气象观测站1981-2013年气象观测资料,对贺州市霾天气的气候特征及其成因进行了分析.结果表明,贺州市霾天气日数12月最多,7月最少,秋冬两季霾天气日数占全年的75%以上.市内各县区年平均霾天气日数分布存在明显差异,差异的原因与辖区内地形地貌、气候条件、土地利用性质密切相关.年平均霾天气日数总体呈上升趋势.  相似文献   

9.
采用统计调查分析方法,对京津冀地区2014年霾气象服务情况进行调查。在此基础上,统计分析了公众对霾的认知程度、防护措施及预报服务评价等情况,并利用直接损失评估法和疾病成本法等方法,对北京地区2014年霾健康气象服务减少的健康人口损失和经济损失进行了估算。研究发现,京津冀地区的公众对霾的认知度和关注度极高,但公众对霾预报气象服务满意程度仍有较大的提升空间;七成以上的公众会根据霾预报服务信息采取适当的防护措施。经估算,北京市2014年由于PM_(2.5)造成的健康人口损失数为3085人,占总死亡人数的2.3%,造成的健康经济损失值为24.52亿元;未来在与2014年同等的PM_(2.5)暴露浓度之下,公众采用相应气象服务后,在不同的情景下所接受的PM_(2.5)年平均暴露浓度减少5%和10%的情况下,北京市每年可能减少的健康人口损失数为113~226人,可能减少健康经济损失值为0.9~1.8亿元。  相似文献   

10.
崔妍  赵春雨 《气象》2024,50(1):84-94
利用辽宁省51个地面气象观测站的能见度、均一化相对湿度和天气现象资料,采用最优距离法和固定比例法对能见度资料进行一致性处理,重建了1961—2020年的辽宁省逐日霾资料,并利用该资料对辽宁省年和四季霾日时空变化特征和主导因子进行分析。结果表明,1961—2020年辽宁省平均年霾日呈显著增加趋势[2.1d·(10a)-1],但2015年以来霾日显著减少;空间上,年和四季霾日呈现一致的分布特征,均存在1个高值中心(沈阳)和2个副高值中心(北票和锦州),年平均霾日分别为139、52、46 d,辽东和辽西山区为霾日低发区,年平均霾日在20d以内。风向和风速是霾日形成的重要气象因子,西南偏南风增加带来的暖湿气流对春季、夏季和秋季霾日的形成贡献较大,北风的减少则对冬季霾日的形成贡献较大。霾发生时辽宁省春季、夏季和秋季发生西南偏南风的频率分别由11.4%、12.1%和8.0%增加至15.8%、19.8%和13.5%,冬季则表现为北风发生频率的减少和静风发生频率的增加;霾发生时四季风速均较平均状况偏小,说明小风有利于霾的形成。辽宁省霾长期演变受到污染物排放、风力因子和环境政策等多种因素影响,1980—2003年霾日的不断增加是污染物增多和风速减小共同导致的,2015年以来的霾日减少则可能与大气污染防治引起的PM2.5减少有关,同时较少的小风日数也为霾日减少提供了有利的气象条件。  相似文献   

11.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.  相似文献   

12.
Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.  相似文献   

13.
The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.  相似文献   

14.
正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.  相似文献   

15.
Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.  相似文献   

16.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.  相似文献   

17.
Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.  相似文献   

18.
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on  相似文献   

19.
Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.  相似文献   

20.
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.  相似文献   

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