共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 93 毫秒
1.
黄土高原地区农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性分析 总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17
根据IPCC定义和实地考察、文献、问卷调查等结果确定了评价黄土高原地区农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性判别指标体系及其权重分配结果，并对几个代表站点做了脆弱性现状评估，为进一步完成黄土高原地区农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性地区分布和对策研究提供了一定的基础和方法。 相似文献
2.
随着对气候变化研究的不断深入,气候变化脆弱性问题也得到了更多的关注。相对于水资源、森林等其他自然生态系统,农业受气候变化的影响最大,科学地评价其对气候变化的脆弱性,对于制定合理有效的适应对策具有重要意义。从气候变化脆弱性与农业对气候变化脆弱性的定义、研究内容和评价方法等角度综述了研究进展,在此基础上分析了目前该领域存在的问题,包括情景应用、方法和不确定性等方面,并展望了未来脆弱性评价的发展方向。 相似文献
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农业生产的气候脆弱性指标及权重的确定 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
农业生产的气候脆弱性研究可为地方政府在区域经济发展，尤其在西部大开发中进行有关气候变化适应对策研究提供科学参考。在实地考察、专家问卷调查基础上，利用专家打分和层次分析法确立和完善了黄土高原地区农业生产的气候脆弱性定量评价指标方案，建立判断距阵并通过一致性检验，确定和各指标权重和分级方案，提出了定量计算方法，弥补了以往定性研究的不足。应用于“西部生态气候环境监测”公益项目研究取得了很好结果，是比较可行的农业生产的气候脆弱性定量评价方法。 相似文献
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农业生产系统的脆弱分析及其在农业气候区划中的应用赵丁山（洪洞县气象局０３１６００）在气候变化与农业生产关系的研究中，人们越来越重视农业生产系统的脆弱性分析，其出发点主要基于两点：ａ．农业生产系统适应气候变化的能力；ｂ．农业自然资源的承载能力。根据中国... 相似文献
5.
黄土高原农业生产气候脆弱性的初步研究 总被引：28，自引：0，他引：28
介绍了农业生产的气候脆弱性概念和评估方案,并据此估算和分析了1990年和1997年黄土高原地区130个县市农业生产的气候脆弱性分布现状;然后利用IPCC推荐的最新GCM模拟结果确定了我国西北地区未来2010～2050年气候变化情景,在现有和设定的社会经济发展情景下分析了黄土高原农业生产的气候脆弱性可能变化,并讨论了有关农业可持续发展对策. 相似文献
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气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性研究与展望 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
论述了气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性概念、内涵及其与适应性管理的联系;综述了水资源脆弱性定量评估方法,包括指标权重法、函数及综合指标法等;介绍了减少水资源脆弱性的适应对策研究。分析表明,联系水资源供需矛盾的水资源脆弱性既有自然变化脆弱性的一面,又有气候变化影响导致水资源供需关系发生变化以及旱涝灾害影响加剧水资源脆弱性的问题。关键是要识别影响水资源脆弱性变化的主要调控变量,通过应对气候变化的适应性对策研究,最大限度地减少水资源脆弱性。未来气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性研究,将在进一步发展脆弱性影响与评估基础上,逐步转到适应性水资源管理与对策的研究。 相似文献
7.
气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的环境问题之一,气候变化可能对生态系统和社会经济产生灾难性影响,农业是受气候变化影响最直接的脆弱行业。因此,气候变化对农业生产的影响研究一直是气候变化研究领域中的热点问题之一。该文系统介绍了有关全球气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究的现状与进展,包括气候变化对农业影响的研究方法、大气中温室气体浓度增加对农作物的影响试验、气候变化对农业气候资源的影响、气候变化对农作物生长发育和产量的影响、气候变化对农业种植制度和品种布局的影响、气候变化对农作物气候生产潜力和气候资源利用率的影响等,指出当前在研究气候变化对农业影响评估中存在的问题,提出了今后应加强对气候变化情景和预测模式不确定性的研究、气候变化对农业影响的方法研究。此外,气候变化背景下极端天气气候事件对农业生产的影响以及气候变化对农业病虫害的影响研究等仍较薄弱,有待进一步加强和深入。 相似文献
8.
杨青 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2002,25(2):35-35
人们对全球气候变化的关注从来没有象现在这样“热”过，气候变化问题已从一个纯科学研究的领域变成社会公众和传媒谈论的热门话题。对于人类生产生活而言，气候变化与人们脆弱性的关系是非线性的。因为人类与其生产系统只能适应一定范围内的气候状态，过与不及都是不能适应的灾害。生产的稳定性与气候的多变性决定了灾害不可避免性，但是灾害的减少却是可能的。首先要弄清气候变化的原因，才能最大限度的降低我们对气候变化的脆弱性，提高我们的适应能力，把灾害减少到最小程度。影响气候变化的因子很多，太阳活动的影响是不容忽视的，这种… 相似文献
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《气象科学进展》2021,(3)
目前中国生态与农业气象研究主要关注气候变化的影响,而脆弱性与风险预估研究仍存在很大不确定性,甚至无法进行预估研究。以生态/农业气象的脆弱性和风险为切入点,从生态/农业的地理/种植分布、物候/生育期和生产力/产量等方面,综述了中国生态/农业气象的研究进展,指出现有研究成果难以满足高质量生态保护与粮食安全的需求,为此提出了未来拟重点开展的研究任务,即生态/农业气象承载力及其优化布局、生态/农业气象的灾变过程与调控机制、生态/农业变化的气象条件贡献率评估及其适应技术、高质量生态保护与粮食提质增效的气候资源高效利用和定向调控研究,以推进中国生态与农业气象脆弱性与风险研究,为中国生态/农业气象科学应对气候变化提供依据。 相似文献
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气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望 总被引：32，自引：0，他引：32
综述了气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源、农业气象灾害(干旱、洪涝、高温热浪、低温灾害)和农业病虫害的变化趋势与规律,从农业生产潜力变化、作物种植制度变化和作物品质变化等方面阐明了气候变化对中国农业生产的影响事实,分析了气候变化对中国农业生产的可能影响和中国农业生产适应气候变化的对策措施。在此基础上,针对气候变化背景下中国气候资源的时空分布特点及农业生产出现的新情况、新问题,指出了当前中国关于气候变化对农业影响研究存在的不足,提出了未来气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究需要重视的方面,为确保气候变化背景下中国的农业生产安全及粮食安全提供决策支持。 相似文献
11.
Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(2):155-167
The term ‘vulnerability’ is used in many different ways by various scholarly communities. The resulting disagreement about the appropriate definition of vulnerability is a frequent cause for misunderstanding in interdisciplinary research on climate change and a challenge for attempts to develop formal models of vulnerability. Earlier attempts at reconciling the various conceptualizations of vulnerability were, at best, partly successful. This paper presents a generally applicable conceptual framework of vulnerability that combines a nomenclature of vulnerable situations and a terminology of vulnerability concepts based on the distinction of four fundamental groups of vulnerability factors. This conceptual framework is applied to characterize the vulnerability concepts employed by the main schools of vulnerability research and to review earlier attempts at classifying vulnerability concepts. None of these one-dimensional classification schemes reflects the diversity of vulnerability concepts identified in this review. The wide range of policy responses available to address the risks from global climate change suggests that climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments will continue to apply a variety of vulnerability concepts. The framework presented here provides the much-needed conceptual clarity and facilitates bridging the various approaches to researching vulnerability to climate change. 相似文献
12.
适应气候变化在国际公约谈判及国内适应实践中成为重要的关注内容,明晰适应相关的术语含义具有科学参考价值和实践指导意义。本文通过比较适应相关术语认为,适应是行为方式或对策措施的界定,可不需量化数据支持;适应能力需有明确评价指标体系,并最终产生量化性评价结果;适应性更偏重于能力属性,其基本结论是有或无、强或弱的判断,在适应性有量化结论支持或明确强弱确定时则等同于适应能力。脆弱性评价中,暴露度体现主体对象与气候变化相关的基本处境概况,敏感性表明气候变化对主体对象的影响,适应能力则是经济资本、自然资源、技术水平、社会保障四大要素的综合评价,各要素涵盖的具体指标需要酌情依据适应主体属性予以判别和遴选。适应气候变化与灾害风险管理在主体范畴、驱动因子、行动目的上有所区别,但两者共同关注提高对气候变化/气候灾害风险的抵御、承受、恢复能力,以降低不利影响,实现可持续发展为共同目标。 相似文献
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While it is generally asserted that those countries who have contributed least to anthropogenic climate change are most vulnerable to its adverse impacts some recently developed indices of vulnerability to climate change come to a different conclusion. Confirmation or rejection of this assertion is complicated by the lack of an agreed metric for measuring countries’ vulnerability to climate change and by conflicting interpretations of vulnerability. This paper presents a comprehensive semi-quantitative analysis of the disparity between countries’ responsibility for climate change, their capability to act and assist, and their vulnerability to climate change for four climate-sensitive sectors based on a broad range of disaggregated vulnerability indicators. This analysis finds a double inequity between responsibility and capability on the one hand and the vulnerability of food security, human health, and coastal populations on the other. This double inequity is robust across alternative indicator choices and interpretations of vulnerability. The main cause for the higher vulnerability of poor nations who have generally contributed little to climate change is their lower adaptive capacity. In addition, the biophysical sensitivity and socio-economic exposure of poor nations to climate impacts on food security and human health generally exceeds that of wealthier nations. No definite statement can be made on the inequity associated with climate impacts on water supply due to large uncertainties about future changes in regional water availability and to conflicting indicators of current water scarcity. The robust double inequity between responsibility and vulnerability for most climate-sensitive sectors strengthens the moral case for financial and technical assistance from those countries most responsible for climate change to those countries most vulnerable to its adverse impacts. However, the complex and geographically heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability factors for different climate-sensitive sectors suggest that the allocation of international adaptation funds to developing countries should be guided by sector-specific or hazard-specific criteria despite repeated requests from participants in international climate negotiations to develop a generic index of countries’ vulnerability to climate change. 相似文献
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Tabea K. Lissner Anne Holsten Carsten Walther Jürgen P. Kropp 《Climatic change》2012,112(3-4):687-708
The relevance of climate change is especially apparent through the impacts it has on natural and societal systems. A standardised methodology to assess these impacts in order to produce comparable results is still lacking. We propose a semi-quantitative approach to calculate vulnerability to climate change, with the ability to capture complex mechanisms in human-environmental systems. The key mechanisms are delineated and translated into a deterministic graph (impact chain). A fuzzy logic algorithm is then applied to address uncertainty regarding the definition of clear threshold values. We exemplify our approach by analysing the direct impacts of climate change on human health in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, where the urban heat island potential, the percentage of elderly population as well as the occurrence of heat waves determine impact intensity. Increases in heatwaves and elderly population will aggravate the impacts. While the influence of climatic changes is apparent on larger spatial scales, societal factors determine the small scale distribution of impacts within our regional case study. In addition to identifying climate change impact hot spots, the structured approach of the impact chain and the methodology of aggregation enable to infer from the results back to the main constituents of vulnerability. Thus, it can provide a basis for decision-makers to set priorities for specific adaptation measures within the complex field of climate change impacts. 相似文献
16.
Britta Horstmann 《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):1086-1096
The Adaptation Fund of the Kyoto Protocol marks a change in the international climate change financing architecture due to its independence from official development assistance, direct access and the majority of developing countries in governance. A major goal of the Adaptation Fund is to finance concrete adaptation projects and programmes in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The presented analysis considers the results of operationalization of the fund between 2008 and 2010, and the role vulnerability had in the allocation of funds. The definition of ‘vulnerability’ remains broad and currently does not allow for a prioritization in the allocation of funds. Criteria like ‘level of vulnerability’ or ‘adaptive capacity’ still need to be specified. The possibilities for the Adaptation Fund Board to implement a vulnerability-oriented funding approach are limited by the legal basis of the Kyoto Protocol and the principle of a country-driven approach. The effective support of vulnerable communities primarily depends on the institutional capacities and the institutional arrangement at the national level and the quality of analysis the adaptation projects and programmes are based on. 相似文献
17.
IPCC发布的《气候变化2014：影响、适应和脆弱性》进一步提升了国际社会对于适应气候变化和可持续发展的认识水平,主要表现在：适应气候变化的研究视角从自然生态脆弱性转向更为广泛的社会经济脆弱性及人类的响应能力;阐明了气候风险与社会发展的关系,明确了适应在气候灾害风险管理中的积极作用;提出了减少脆弱性和暴露度及增加气候恢复能力的有效适应原则;提出了适应极限的概念,指出这一概念对于适应气候变化的政策含义;提出了保障社会可持续发展的气候恢复能力路径;强调要注重适应与减缓的协同作用和综合效应,指出转型适应是应对气候变化影响的必要选择。报告认为,气候变化、影响、适应及社会经济过程不再是一个简单的单向线性关系,需要纳入统一的系统框架下予以认识和理解。 相似文献
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Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multi-scale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research. 相似文献