共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 93 毫秒
1.
利用1995～1998年南阳机场气象资料,分析了南阳机场冬季辐射雾形成的有利天气形势和物理量指标,并建立了辐射雾生成和消散的预报方法. 相似文献
2.
刘作华 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》1994,(6)
本文由两部分组成，第一部分对伊犁机场辐射雾生消的物理过程、天气形势、气候特征进行了必要分析。在此基础上概括出生成辐射雾的概念模式，为辐射雾生成的预报提供了一种依据。第二部分选取实况资料、筛选预报因子，采用多因子相关法律立客观预报方程。结果表明，方程拟含率高于主观预报准确率。可为今后的业务工作提供参考。 相似文献
3.
利用机场自动气象观测系统数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对昭通机场2019年1月3日("1·3"过程)和12月7日("12·7"过程)两次辐射雾过程的天气形势、水汽条件和边界层结构等进行对比分析,探讨了两次辐射雾形成和维持条件的共性和差异。结果表明:(1)两次过程均发生在雨雪天气转晴后,机场受高压底后部弱气压场控制,但"1·3"过程水汽含量和动力条件明显优于"12·7"过程,雾浓度和持续时间都大于"12·7"过程。(2)"1·3"过程是一次典型辐射雾,形成于晴夜、微风、辐射降温最强烈的凌晨。雾过程中水汽充沛,动力条件适宜,有利于雾的形成和发展。(3)"12·7"过程辐射雾具有局地爆发性发展的特征,雾爆发前由于水汽和动力条件较差,机场仅形成了轻雾。日出后由于西南方向的雾层向北平流,机场低温、高湿的环境条件有利于雾维持,近地面风速有利于雾层混合,使机场区域雾爆发发展。 相似文献
4.
桂林机场雾的天气统计特征分析及预报初探 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
对１９８６－１９９５年桂林机场的历史资料进行统计分析,从而得到桂林机场雾的分布特征及变化,并将桂林机场的雾分为辐射雾物和们随“两低”天气产生的雨雾两类,分别对其形成的天气形势、雾散时间的预报进行分析研究,为今后预报和分析桂林机场低能风度天气提供了有用的参考依据和预报思路。 相似文献
5.
对1986-1995年桂林机场的历史资料进行统计分析,从而得到桂林机场雾的分布特征及变化,并将桂林机场的雾分为辐射雾和伴随“两低”天气产生的雨雾两类,分别对其形成的天气形势、雾散时间的预报进行分析研究,为今后预报和分析桂林机场低能见度天气提供了有用的参考依据和预报思路。 相似文献
6.
7.
8.
洛阳机场辐射雾的预报 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
从统计资料看，洛阳机场影响能见工的雾绝大多数是辐射雾，平流雾的出现低于0．1％。辐射雾出现的常见形势是：洛阳处在地面弱高压中心附近或鞍形场、均压共内，地面为稳定东北风或风向不定，风速均≤3m/s，出现的前一天下午至晚上近地面湿度较大，前一天16时相对湿度均＞75％，天空背景为夜间晴朗少云，或碧空或只有高云县总云量不超过2／8，近地面层大气层结比较稳定。 相似文献
9.
利用广汉机场地面观测气象要素与08时探空资料,结合天气图,求取成雾露点温度和逆温层顶温,提出了预报冬半年(11月至次年2月)辐射雾生消的经验公式,经检验具有较高的准确率,在实际运用中取得了很好的效果. 相似文献
10.
利用广汉机场地面观测气象要素与08时探空资料,结合天气图,求取成雾露点温度和送温层顶温,提出了预报冬半年（11月至次年2月）辐射雾生消的经验公式,经检验具有较高的准确率,在实际运用中取得了很好的效果。 相似文献
11.
The ‘Anthropocene’ concept provides a conceptual framework that encapsulates the current global situation in which society has an ever-greater dominating influence on Earth System functioning. Simulation models used to understand earth system dynamics provide early warning, scenario analysis and evaluation of environmental management and policies. This paper aims to assess the extent to which current models represent the Anthropocene and suggest ways forward. Current models do not fully reflect the typical characteristics of the Anthropocene, such as societal influences and interactions with natural processes, feedbacks and system dynamics, tele-connections, tipping points, thresholds and regime shifts. Based on an analysis of current model representations of Anthropocene dynamics, we identify ways to enhance the role of modeling tools to better help us understand Anthropocene dynamics and address sustainability issues arising from them. To explore sustainable futures (‘safe and operating spaces’), social processes and anthropogenic drivers of biophysical processes must be incorporated, to allow for a spectrum of potential impacts and responses at different societal levels. In this context, model development can play a major role in reconciling the different epistemologies of the disciplines that need to collaborate to capture changes in the functioning of socio-ecological systems. Feedbacks between system functioning and underlying endogenous drivers should be represented, rather than assuming the drivers to be exogenous to the modelled system or stationary in time and space. While global scale assessments are important, the global scale dynamics need to be connected to local realities and vice versa. The diversity of stakeholders and potential questions requires a diversification of models, avoiding the convergence towards single models that are able to answer a wide range of questions, but without sufficient specificity. The novel concept of the Anthropocene can help to develop innovative model representations and model architectures that are better suited to assist in designing sustainable solutions targeted at the users of the models and model results. 相似文献
12.
武占云 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(5):559-569
空间规划是适应气候变化的重要政策工具之一,将适应气候变化目标纳入空间规划已经成为国际主流政策。中国适应气候变化的空间规划仍面临诸多问题和挑战,包括气候适应目标和理念薄弱、气候变化风险评估与空间规划尺度不匹配、适应和减缓策略的协同机制欠缺、技术标准和法律法规不完善等。文章结合国家适应气候变化战略和国土空间规划体系重构的目标要求,研究提出适应气候变化导向的国土空间规划框架体系和技术思路,以及将适应气候变化纳入空间规划编制审批、技术标准、实施监督以及法规政策等各个环节的思路与建议,以期通过空间规划的编制与监督实施促进适应气候变化目标的实现。 相似文献
13.
气候变暖是当今时代所面临的最大挑战之一。在全球应对气候变暖的同时,作为前沿经济理念和发展模式的低碳经济应运而生了。按照低碳经济的内涵,江西发展低碳经济面临着机遇和挑战,总体上对正在实现“进位赶超、跨越发展、加快崛起”的江西是后发优势。为此,要做好八个方面的工作：坚持发展与保护并重不动摇,全社会树立低碳经济理念与方式,持续开展节能减排,大力发展低碳能源,着力改善自然生态系统质量,建立低碳与生态工业园区,加强农村环境综合整治,以科技创新支持低碳经济。 相似文献
14.
气候变化影响与适应问题的谈判进展 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
从《气候变化框架公约》（以下简称《公约》）第一次缔约方会议到目前为止，几乎历次会议都涉及气候变化影响与适应的谈判内容，但谈判进展甚微。通过综述《公约》谈判进程中与适应气候变化有关的主要决定，分析了适应气候变化影响与适应问题谈判的制约因素，最后提出了我国在气候变化影响与适应问题谈判中应持的立场。 相似文献
15.
由土地利用、土地利用变化和林业（LULUCF）活动产生的生态系统的固碳作用,是降低大气中温室气体浓度增加速度的重要途径之一。1997-2001年,经历了长达4 a的艰苦谈判,最终达成了第一承诺期附件一国家利用LULUCF的规则。2008年开始,国际社会开始磋商第二承诺期附件一国家如何利用LULUCF活动的规则。主要缔约方就第二承诺期LULUCF规则提出了各自的观点,发达国家的观点主要包括提高开展碳汇活动的积极性、降低LULUCF规则的复杂性和减少成本、增加《京都议定书》3.4条款下的合格活动等,其目的是在第二承诺期能够利用更多的碳汇完成减排义务;发展中国家主要提出要系统地考虑土地利用造成的温室气体排放和CO2的吸收。最后,针对附件一缔约方在第二承诺期利用LULUCF活动规则,提出了我国应采取的对策建议。 相似文献
16.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(2-3):129-144
Abstract Climate change does not yet feature prominently within the environmental or economic policy agendas of developing countries. Yet evidence shows that some of the most adverse effects of climate change will be in developing countries, where populations are most vulnerable and least likely to easily adapt to climate change, and that climate change will affect the potential for development in these countries. Some synergies already exist between climate change policies and the sustainable development agenda in developing countries, such as energy efficiency, renewable energy, transport and sustainable land-use policies. Despite limited attention from policy-makers to date, climate change policies could have significant ancillary benefits for the local environment. The reverse is also true as local and national policies to address congestion, air quality, access to energy services and energy diversity may also limit GHG emissions. Nevertheless there could be significant trade-offs associated with deeper levels of mitigation in some countries, for example where developing countries are dependent on indigenous coal and may be required to switch to cleaner yet more expensive fuels to limit emissions. The distributional impacts of such policies are an important determinant of their feasibility and need to be considered up-front. It follows that future agreements on mitigation and adaptation under the convention will need to recognise the diverse situations of developing countries with respect to their level of economic development, their vulnerability to climate change and their ability to adapt or mitigate. Recognition of how climate change is likely to influence other development priorities may be a first step toward building cost-effective strategies and integrated, institutional capacity in developing countries to respond to climate change. Opportunities may also exist in developing countries to use regional economic organisations to assist in the design of integrated responses and to exploit synergies between climate change and other policies such as those designed to combat desertification and preserve biodiversity. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 相似文献
17.
Improving the adaptive capacity of small-scale irrigation systems to the impacts of climate change is crucial for food security in Asia. This study analyzes the capacity of small-scale irrigation systems dependent on the Asian monsoon to adapt to variability in river discharge caused by climate change. Our study is motivated by the Pumpa irrigation system, a small-scale irrigation system located in Nepal that is a model for this type of system. We developed an agent-based model in which we simulated the decisions farmers make about the irrigation strategy to use according to available water flow. Given the uncertainty associated with how climate change may affect the Asian monsoon, we simulated the performance of the system under different projections of climate change in the region (increase and decrease in rainfall, reduction and expansion of the monsoon season, and changes in the timing of the onset of the monsoon). Accordingly to our simulations, farmers might need to adapt to rainfall intensification and a late onset in the monsoon season. The demands for collective action among farmers (e.g. infrastructure repair, meetings, decisions, etc.) might increase considerably due to climate change. Although our model suggests that investment in new infrastructure might increase the performance of the system under some climate change scenarios, the high inequality among farmers when water availability is reduced might hinder the efficiency of these measures due to a reduction of farmers’ willingness to cooperate. Our modeling exercise helps to hypothesize about the most sensitive climate change scenarios for smallscale irrigation farming in Nepal and helps to frame a discussion of some possible solutions and fundamental trade-offs in the process of adaptation to improve for food and water security under climate change. 相似文献
18.
气候风险可能给人类社会带来巨大的生命和财产损失,气候保险通过转移分散风险成为应对气候风险的有效机制。文中首先在辨析气候保险的概念和市场机制等理论基础上,分析了气候保险存在逆向选择风险与难以满足大数法则、存在道德风险与反馈效应的问题;其次梳理了发达国家气候保险的发展情况,其风险分散和转移功能比较强,保费一部分存在政府补贴,一般采取政府紧急贷款、再保险和保险衍生品的方式进一步分散风险,但是也存在道德风险的问题。最后分析了中国气候保险的发展现状发现存在着难以满足大数法则的问题,道德风险尚无明确体现,并提出建议:完善气象站基础设施、制定自然灾害风险地图、提高公众和敏感行业气候保险的购买意愿等尽量使气候保险满足大数法则;促使保险公司在设计保险产品时考虑非经济成本,未雨绸缪避免道德风险及反馈效应;适时发展气候再保险和保险衍生品,建立分散和转移风险的市场机制。 相似文献
19.
Intensified climate and market turbulence requires resilience to a multitude of changes. Diversity reduces the sensitivity to disturbance and fosters the capacity to adapt to various future scenarios. What really matters is diversity of responses. Despite appeals to manage resilience, conceptual developments have not yet yielded a break-through in empirical applications. Here, we present an approach to empirically reveal the ‘response diversity’: the factors of change that are critical to a system are identified, and the response diversity is determined based on the documented component responses to these factors. We illustrate this approach and its added value using an example of securing food supply in the face of climate variability and change. This example demonstrates that quantifying response diversity allows for a new perspective: despite continued increase in cultivar diversity of barley, the diversity in responses to weather declined during the last decade in the regions where most of the barley is grown in Finland. This was due to greater homogeneity in responses among new cultivars than among older ones. Such a decline in the response diversity indicates increased vulnerability and reduced resilience. The assessment serves adaptive management in the face of both ecological and socio-economic drivers. Supplier diversity in the food retail industry in order to secure affordable food in spite of global price volatility could represent another application. The approach is, indeed, applicable to any system for which it is possible to adopt empirical information regarding the response by its components to the critical factors of variability and change. Targeting diversification in response to critical change brings efficiency into diversity. We propose the generic procedure that is demonstrated in this study as a means to efficiently enhance resilience at multiple levels of agrifood systems and beyond. 相似文献
20.
On the occasion of the thirtieth anniversary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, this principal supra-national institution remains paramount to the project of planetary climate planning and governance. Reflections on this anniversary should serve to recall the contestations through which this foundational institution was formed, and the delegate dynamics that continue to be reproduced in its wake. The contentious debates and political dynamics that afflicted the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee tasked with crafting the Framework Convention on Climate Change, as well as dissension in the periphery, remain as relevant today as they were three decades ago. Reprising these dynamics through detailed historical and archival analysis, this article excavates the negotiations of the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change by the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee, which met in 5 sessions during 1991–1992. The aim is to identify key fault-lines and conflicts in the lead-up to the finalization of the 1992 Convention, in order to demonstrate whose epistemic and normative commitments came to be reflected in the final outcome and to show how the legacy of this process endures to date. I seek to render visible actors and proposals peripheralized in the formation of planetary climate governance to extrapolate normative boundaries and proffer heterodox lessons from the margins. 相似文献