共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Public perceptions of rainfall change in India 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
People’s perceptions of changes in local weather patterns are an important precursor to proactive adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we consider public perceptions of changes in average rainfall in India, analyzing the relationship between perceptions and the instrumental record. Using data from a national sample survey, we find that local instrumental records of precipitation are a strong predictor of perceived declines in rainfall. Perceptions of decreasing rainfall were also associated with perceptions of changes in extreme weather events, such as decreasing frequency of floods and severe storms, increasing frequency of droughts, and decreasing predictability of the monsoon. Higher social vulnerability—including low perceived adaptive capacity and greater food and livelihood dependence on local weather—was also associated with perceptions of decreasing rainfall. While both urban and rural respondents were likely to perceive local changes in precipitation, we show that rural respondents in general were more sensitive to actual changes in precipitation. Individual perceptions of changes in local climate may play an important role in shaping vulnerability to global climate change, adaptive behavior, and support for adaptation and mitigation policies. Awareness of local climate change is therefore particularly important in regions where much of the population is highly exposed and sensitive to the impacts of climate change. 相似文献
2.
This paper analyzes discourses and practices of flood response and adaptation to climate change in Mozambique. It builds on recent publications on climate change adaptation that suggest that the successes and failures of adaptation highly depend on the cultural and political realms of societal perceptions and the sensitivity of institutions. To capture this, the paper adopted a multi-sited ethnographic approach. Acknowledging that there is no central locus of representation that can unveil the working of disaster response in Mozambique, the paper brings together five vignettes of research in different ‘sites’ of concern to the rise in floods in Mozambique. These are the politics of climate change adaptation at the national institutional level, societal responses to increased flooding, local people's responses to floods, the evacuation and resettlement programme following the 2007 flood. The paper finds how adaptation to climate change becomes part of everyday politics, how actors aim to incorporate responses into the continuation of their normal behavior and how elites are better positioned to take advantage of adaptation programmes than the vulnerable people that were targeted. It argues that climate change adaptation must be made consonant with historically grown and ongoing social and institutional processes. It concludes with lessons that the analysis and methodology of the research can provide for the practice of climate change adaptation. 相似文献
3.
用高分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM-NCC)模拟了中国区域植被发生改变后引起的局地或区域气候变化。结果表明:大范围区域植被变化对区域降水、温度的影响非常显著,内蒙古地区土地荒漠化可导致中国北方大部分地区降水减少,尤其加剧了华北、西北地区的干旱,西北地区绿化有利于黄河流域降水增加,而长江流域和江南地区降水却有不同程度的减少,因此可在一定程度上减少这里的洪涝灾害;气温的变化比降水更显著,植被退化使当地气温明显升高,使中、低层大气变得干燥,近地层风速加大,而植树造林却使当地及周围地区冬偏暖、夏偏凉,大气变得湿润,近地层风速减小,有利于在一定程度上减少沙尘暴的发生。另外,植被变化对东亚冬、夏季风强度也有一定程度的影响,从而影响到中国东部地区降水的分布和冬季低温、冷害事件发生的强度。 相似文献
4.
《Global Environmental Change》2005,15(2):125-138
The article examines the role institutions play in climate adaptation in Norway. Using examples from two municipalities in the context of institutional responses to floods, we find, first, that the institutional framework for flood management in Norway gives weak incentives for proactive local flood management. Second, when strong local political and economic interests coincide with national level willingness to pay and provide support, measures are often carried out rapidly at the expense of weaker environmental interests. Third, we find that new perspectives on flood management are more apparent at the national than the municipal level, as new perspectives are filtered by local power structures. The findings have important implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in terms of policy options and the local level as the optimal level for adaptation. 相似文献
5.
Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental, Integrated Analysis 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
Bernhard Lehner Petra Döll Joseph Alcamo Thomas Henrichs Frank Kaspar 《Climatic change》2006,75(3):273-299
Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability,
and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and
droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that
climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will
put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time
continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future
flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated
regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood
and drought frequencies. The results indicate large ‘critical regions’ for which significant changes in flood or drought risks
are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern
to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical
regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10–50 years by the 2070s. Though
interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance
of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale. 相似文献
6.
Damaging rainfall and rain-induced flooding occur from time to time in the drought-prone Sahel savanna zone of Niger in West
Africa but official records of these events and their socioeconomic impacts do not exist. This paper utilized newspaper accounts
between 1970 and 2000 to survey and illustrate the range of these flood hazards in the Sahel. During the study interval, 53
newspaper articles reported 79 damaging rainfall and flood events in 47 different communities in the Sahel of Niger. Collectively,
these events destroyed 5,580 houses and rendered 27,289 people homeless. Cash losses and damage to infrastructure in only
three events exceeded $4 million. Sahel residents attribute these floods to five major causes including both natural and anthropogenic,
but they view the flood problem as driven primarily by land use patterns. Despite such awareness, traditional coping strategies
appear inadequate for dealing with the problems in part because of significant climatic variability. Analysis of several rainfall
measures indicates that the cumulative rainfall in the days prior to a heavy rain event is an important factor influencing
whether or not heavy rainfall results in flooding. Thus, despite some limitations, newspaper accounts of historical flooding
are largely consistent with measured climatic variables. The study demonstrates that concerted effort is needed to improve
the status of knowledge concerning flood impacts and indeed other natural and human hazards in the Sahel. 相似文献
7.
黔南暴雨洪涝灾害情势及防御 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
根据黔南州1983—2007年共25 a的暴雨洪涝灾害资料及降水资料,对黔南州洪涝灾害的基本特征和主要特点进行分析、总结,并结合该州气候变化趋势及人文地理、经济社会发展等情况进行研究,结果表明:5—8月是该州暴雨洪涝灾害的多发季节,尤以6月最多,7月次之;州的南部和中部地区洪涝灾害要重于北部地区,而且随着经济的发展,暴雨洪涝灾害所造成的损失越来越大,全州防御暴雨洪涝灾害面临的形势更加严峻。同时,根据防灾减灾面临的形势提出一些防御措施。 相似文献
8.
Coastal areas around the world are urbanizing rapidly, despite the threat of sea level rise and intensifying floods. Such development places an increasing number of people and capital at risk, which calls for public flood management as well as household level adaptation measures that reduce social vulnerability to flooding and climate change. This study explores several private adaptation responses to flood risk, that are driven by various behavioral triggers. We conduct a survey among households in hazard-prone areas in eight coastal states in the USA, of which, some have recently experienced major flooding. While numerous empirical studies have investigated household-level flood damage mitigation, little attention has been given to examining the decision to retreat from flood zones. We examine what behavioral motives drive the choices for flood damage mitigation and relocation separately among property buyers and sellers. Hence, we focus on the drivers that shape demand for future development in flood-prone cities. We find that households’ choices to retreat from or to avoid flood zones (1) are highly sensitive to information that provokes people's feelings of fear, and (2) rely on hazardous events to trigger a protective action, which ideally would take place well before these events occur. We highlight that major flooding may cause a potential risk of large-scale outmigration and demographic changes in flood-prone areas, putting more low-income households at risk. Therefore, coordinated policies that integrate bottom-up drivers of individual climate adaptation are needed to increase urban resilience to floods. 相似文献
9.
Flood management and adaptation are important elements in sustaining farming production in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). While over the past decades hydraulic development introduced by the central government has substantially benefited the rural economy, it has simultaneously caused multiple barriers to rural adaptation. We investigate the relational practices (i.e., learning interactions) taking place within and across the flood management and adaptation boundaries from the perspective of social learning. We explore whether and how adaptive knowledge (i.e., experimental and experiential knowledge) derived from farmers’ everyday adaptation practices contributes to local flood management and adaptation policies in the selected areas. We collected data through nine focus groups with farmers and thirty-three interviews with government officials, environmental scientists, and farmers. Qualitative analysis suggests that such processes are largely shaped by the institutional context where the boundary is embedded. This study found that while the highly bureaucratic operation of flood management creates constraints for feedback, the more informal arrangements set in place at the local level provide flexible platforms conducive to open communication, collaborative learning, and exchange of knowledge among the different actors. This study highlights the pivotal role of shadow systems that provide space for establishing and maintaining informal interactions and relationships between social actors (e.g., interactions between farmers and extension officials) in stimulating and influencing, from the bottom-up, the emergence of adaptive knowledge about flood management and adaptation in a local context. 相似文献
10.
Yangtze Delta floods and droughts of the last millennium: Abrupt changes and long term memory 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6
Summary Climate variability and flood events in the Yangtze Delta, which is a low-lying terrain prone to flood hazards, storm tides and typhoons, are studied in terms of a trend and detrended fluctuation analysis of historical records. The data used in this paper were extracted from historical records such as local annuals and chronologies from 1000–1950 and supplemented by instrumental observations since 1950. The historical data includes frequencies of floods, droughts and maritime events on a decadal basis. Flood magnitudes increase during the transition from the medieval warm interval into the early Little Ice Age. Fluctuating climate changes of the Little Ice Age, which are characterised by arid climate events, are followed by wet and cold climate conditions with frequent flood hazards. For trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test is applied to determine the changing trends of flood and drought frequency. Flood frequency during 1000–1950 shows a negative trend before 1600 A.D. and a positive trend thereafter; drought frequency increases after 1300. The detrended fluctuation analysis of the flood and drought frequencies reveals power law scaling up to centuries; this is related to long-term memory and is similar to the river Nile floods. 相似文献
11.
Based on the daily regional mean rainfall,the Z-index method is used to identify persistent flood and drought events lasting for at least 10 days over a region where Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake sit(referred to as the"two-lake region"hereafter).The National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)reanalysis data are then utilized to perform a preliminary diagnostic analysis on these events.The results indicate that the composite standardized geopotential height at 500 hPa presents two different meridional wave trains from north to south over the East Asian-Pacific region,i.e.,a"-+-"pattern for the droughts and a"+-+"pattern for the floods,respectively.The developing,maintaining and decaying phases in the drought and flood events are closely related to the intensity and location of a subtropical high and an extra-tropical blocking high.It is shown that the East Asian summer monsoon is strong(weak)with the occurrence of persistent drought(flood)events.Droughts(floods)are accompanied by a weak(strong)tropical convergent system and a strong(weak)subtropical convergent system.Furthermore,the persistent drought(flood)events are associated with a divergence(convergence)of vertically integrated water vapor flux.In the vertical profile of water vapor flux,divergence(convergence)in the mid-and lower-levels and convergence(divergence)in the higher levels are evident in the droughts(floods).Both the divergence in the droughts and the convergence in floods are strongest at 850 hPa. 相似文献
12.
Climate adaptation is uniquely linked to location, making it predominantly a local government and community responsibility. Despite the obligation to act, local governments are hindered by the absence of applicable guides to adaptation decision-making, especially adaptation to extreme events. In this paper, we describe a framework for prioritising adaptation options that could be locally implemented and illustrate it with a study of flooding in Kochi: a city in southern India. Unlike many demand driven, economics based studies, our new framework also incorporates non-economic dimensions of the extremes and potential adaptation options. Local knowledge is used to tackle data gaps and uncertainty related to extreme events: local experts select adaptation options that offer additional benefits besides those related to climate change. These co-benefits aid decision making under uncertainty by giving weight to community priorities. The Indian case study reveals that, risk evaluation and reduction need to be locally contextualised based on resources available, immediate community requirements, planning periods and local expert knowledge. Although there will be residual damage even after implementing selected options, we argue that, climate response will be most likely to be accepted when it also supports pressing needs. 相似文献
13.
Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of severe weather events are posing major challenges to global food security and livelihoods of rural people. Agriculture has evolved through adaptation to local circumstances for thousands of years. Local experience in responding to severe weather conditions, accumulated over generations and centuries, is valuable for developing adaptation options to current climate change. This study aimed to: (i) identify tree species that reduce vulnerability of cropping systems under climate variability; and (ii) develop a method for rapidly assessing vulnerability and exploring strategies of smallholder farmers in rural areas exposed to climate variability. Participatory Rural Appraisal methods in combination with Geographical Information Systems tools and statistical analysis of meteorological data were used to evaluate local vulnerability to climate change and to investigate local adaptation measures in two selected villages in Vietnam, one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The low predictability of severe weather events makes food crops, especially grain production, insecure. This study shows that while rice and rain-fed crops suffered over 40 % yield losses in years of extreme drought or flood, tree-based systems and cattle were less affected. 13 tree species performed well under the harsh local climate conditions in home and forest gardens to provide income, food, feed and other environmental benefits. Thus, this research suggests that maintenance and enhancement of locally evolved agroforestry systems, with high resilience and multiple benefits, can contribute to climate change adaptation. 相似文献
14.
Patrick Huntjens Louis Lebel Claudia Pahl-Wostl Jeff Camkin Roland Schulze Nicole Kranz 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):67-81
This paper provides an evidence-based contribution to understanding processes of climate change adaptation in water governance systems in the Netherlands, Australia and South Africa. It builds upon the work of Ostrom on institutional design principles for local common pool resources systems. We argue that for dealing with complexities and uncertainties related to climate change impacts (e.g. increased frequency and intensity of floods or droughts) additional or adjusted institutional design propositions are necessary that facilitate learning processes. This is especially the case for dealing with complex, cross-boundary and large-scale resource systems, such as river basins and delta areas in the Netherlands and South Africa or groundwater systems in Western Australia. In this paper we provide empirical support for a set of eight refined and extended institutional design propositions for the governance of adaptation to climate change in the water sector. Together they capture structural, agency and learning dimensions of the adaptation challenge and they provide a strong initial framework to explore key institutional issues in the governance of adaptation to climate change. These institutional design propositions support a “management as learning” approach to dealing with complexity and uncertainty. They do not specify blueprints, but encourage adaptation tuned to the specific features of local geography, ecology, economies and cultures. 相似文献
15.
Penehuro Fatu Lefale 《Climatic change》2010,100(2):317-335
This paper examines traditional ecological knowledge of weather and climate in Samoa, a Polynesian community in the South
Pacific. The research found Samoans have their own unique seasonal calendar. The Samoan seasonal calendar is predominantly
based on the observations of local environmental changes, which are in turn influenced by weather and climate. Monitoring
changes in plants and animal behaviour, for example, are key indicators used by the Samoans to forecast changes in weather
and climate. In addition, their communal and family social activities like hunting, fishing and feasting are driven by the
seasonal calendar. The Samoans knowledge of cloud formation, conditions conducive to the formation and onset of severe weather
systems and seasonal changes in climate, helped them anticipate, plan and adapt to extreme weather and climate events. The
ability and knowledge of the Samoans to forecast the onset of extreme weather and climate events, relying predominantly on
local environmental changes are vital tools that should be incorporated in the formulation of human induced climate change
adaptation strategies. 相似文献
16.
Misperceptions of climate-change risk as barriers to climate-change adaptation: a case study from the Rewa Delta, Fiji 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
While increasing research is focusing on the effective adaptation to climate change in richer (developed) countries, comparatively little has focused specifically on this subject in poorer (developing) countries such as most in the Pacific Islands region. A significant barrier to the development of effective and sustainable adaptive strategies for climate change in such places is the gap between risk and perceived risk. This study looks at a vulnerable location in Fiji—the densely populated Rewa River Delta where environmental changes resulting from shoreline retreat and floods are expected to increase over the next few decades and entail profound societal disruption. The numbers of people living in the Rewa Delta who know of climate change and could correctly identify its contributory causes are few although many rank its current manifestations (floods, riverbank erosion, groundwater salinization) as among their most serious environmental challenges. While lack of awareness is a barrier to adaptation, there are also cultural impediments to this such as short-term planning perspectives, spiritual beliefs, traditional governance structures. One way forward is to empower community leaders in places like the Rewa Delta to make appropriate decisions and for regional governments to continue working together to find solutions that acknowledge the variation in sub-regional trans-national vulnerability to climate change. 相似文献
17.
There is a strong contemporary research and policy focus on climate change risk to communities, places and systems. While the need to understand how climate change will impact on society is valid, the challenge for many vulnerable communities, especially some of the most marginalised, such as remote indigenous communities of north-west South Australia, need to be couched in the context of both immediate risks to livelihoods and long-term challenges of sustainable development. An integrated review of climate change vulnerability for the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region, with a focus on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara lands, suggests that targeted analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation options can overlook broader needs both for people and the environment. Climate change will add to a range of complex challenges for indigenous communities, especially in relation to hazards, such as fire and floods, and local environmental management issues, especially in association with invasive species. To respond to future socio-ecological risk, some targeted responses will need to focus on climate change impacts, but there also needs to be a better understanding of what risk is already apparent within socio-ecosystems and how climate interacts with such systems. Other environmental, social and economic risks may need to be prioritised, or at least strongly integrated into climate change vulnerability assessments. As the capacity to learn how to adapt to risk is developed, the value attributed to traditional ecological knowledge and local indigenous natural resource management must increase, both to provide opportunities for strong local engagement with the adaptation response and to provide broader social development opportunities. 相似文献
18.
两湖流域盛夏持续性旱涝过程诊断分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于区域的平均雨量,用Z指数方法确定发生于洞庭湖与鄱阳湖(简称两湖)流域持续10天及以上的少雨和多雨过程。利用NCEP再分析资料对这些旱涝过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:(1)区域出现连续性旱涝过程时,500 hPa高度场经向分布差异十分明显,在持续性干旱(洪涝)过程中,东亚-西太平洋地区从高纬到低纬表现为典型的"-+-"("+-+")波列分布型,旱涝过程的发生、维持和消退与西太平洋副热带高压的位置和强度变化紧密相关,同时中高纬阻塞形势的变化也十分明显。(2)区域出现连续性旱涝过程与东亚夏季风的强弱显著相关。持续性干旱过程,东亚夏季风环流处于偏强时期,伴随着弱的热带辐合带系统和强的副热带辐合系统,洪涝过程则完全相反。(3)区域持续性旱(涝)过程与区域强水汽辐散(辐合)相对应,且在水汽垂直分布上表现为低层水汽辐散(辐合),高层为水汽辐合(辐散),在850 hPa处的水汽辐散(辐合)最强。 相似文献
19.
Integrating local hybrid knowledge and state support for climate change adaptation in the Asian Highlands 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
New hybrid forms of climate change adaptation combining local and nonlocal/scientific knowledge are emerging across the Asian Highlands region. Yet, while local adaptive capacity can be based on place-based knowledge that governments often lack, communities still need assistance from states to better adjust to climate change and socioeconomic impacts. Using a regional literature review, we evaluate the role of evolving hybrid forms of adaptive knowledge for coping with environmental and social change. The literature is clear that appreciating local knowledge is not enough; enfranchising people with representative decision-making and resource rights and responsibilities is also required so that people can employ that knowledge toward climate adaptation. Into the future, Asian Highland climate change actions must include more targeted state support for locally evolving hybrid knowledge, behaviors and institutions. 相似文献
20.
Babatunde J. Abiodun Ayobami T. Salami Olaniran J. Matthew Sola Odedokun 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(2):277-293
Afforestation is usually thought as a good approach to mitigate impacts of warming over a region. This study presents an argument that afforestation may have bigger impacts than originally thought by previous studies. The study investigates the impacts of afforestation on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria, using a regional climate model (RegCM3), forced with global climate model simulations. The impacts of seven afforestation options on the near future (2031–2050, under A1B scenario) climate and the extreme events are investigated. RegCM3 replicates essential features in the present-day (1981–2000) climate and the associated extreme events, and adequately simulates the seasonal variations over the ecological zones in the country. However, the model simulates the seasonal climate better over the northern ecological zones than over the southern ecological zones. The simulated spatial distribution of the extreme events agrees well with the observation, though the magnitude of the simulated events is smaller than the observed. The study shows that afforestation in Nigeria could have both positive and negative future impacts on the climate change and extreme events in the country. While afforestation reduces the projected global warming and enhances rainfall over the afforested area (and over coastal zones), it enhances the warming and reduces the rainfall over the north-eastern part of the country. In addition, the afforestation induces more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events (flooding) over the coastal region and more frequent occurrence of heat waves and droughts over the semi-arid region. The positive and negative impacts of the afforestation are not limited to Nigeria; they extend to the neighboring countries. While afforestation lowers the warming and enhances rainfall over Benin Republic, it increases the warming and lowers the rainfall over Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The result of the study has important implication for the ongoing climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in Nigeria. 相似文献