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1.
Periodicity of annual precipitation in different climate regions of Croatia   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Summary The periodicity of a 100-year series of annual precipitation over Croatia has been studied by means of power spectrum analysis at 3 stations representing the different climatic regions of Croatia. The annual precipitation variance spectra in the continental lowland (Osijek) and at the north East Adriatic coast (Crikvenica) can be fitted by Markov white noise continuum, but in the transitional region between the Dinaric Alps and the Pannonian lowland (Zagreb-Gri) a non-white noise continuum is necessary. Quasi-periodic oscillations appear in two spectra ranges: short (2.2 and 4.7 years) and medium (25.0 and 33.3 years). These results are compared with those of other authors for other parts of the Europe.With 2 Figures  相似文献   

2.
Summary Daily precipitation amounts from the meteorological station at Kaédi (Mauritania) are available since 1904, the country's longest record. The series constitutes an excellent tool for studying variations in the precipitation climate. Analysis of the annual precipitation amounts reveals the existence of a statistically highly significant downward trend which started in the sixties and is still continuing at present.It was further found that the entire reference period 1904–1988 needs, for reasons of data stationarity, to be split into two parts, corresponding respectively to the periods 1904–1967 and 1968–1988, the year 1967 being estimated as the change-point. The latter period corresponds to the drought which has prevailed over the Sahel region since 1968. The jump disclosed in the hydroclimatic system is indicative of the existence of multiple stable climate regimes.With 7 Figures  相似文献   

3.
We quantify the maximum possible influence of vegetation on the global climate by conducting two extreme climate model simulations: in a first simulation (desert world), values representative of a desert are used for the land surface parameters for all non glaciated land regions. At the other extreme, a second simulation is performed (green planet) in which values are used which are most beneficial for the biosphere's productivity. Land surface evapotranspiration more than triples in the presence of the green planet, land precipitation doubles (as a second order effect) and near surface temperatures are lower by as much as 8 K in the seasonal mean resulting from the increase in latent heat flux. The differences can be understood in terms of more absorbed radiation at the surface and increased recycling of water. Most of the increase in net surface radiation originates from less thermal radiative loss and not from increases in solar radiation which would be expected from the albedo change. To illustrate the differences in climatic character and what it would imply for the vegetation type, we use the Köppen climate classification. Both cases lead to similar classifications in the extra tropics and South America indicating that the character of the climate is not substantially altered in these regions. Fundamental changes occur over Africa, South Asia and Australia, where large regions are classified as arid (grassland/desert) climate in the desert world simulation while classified as a forest climate in the green planet simulation as a result of the strong influence of maximum vegetation on the climate. This implies that these regions are especially sensitive to biosphere-atmosphere interaction.  相似文献   

4.
The impact of climate change on the river rhine: A scenario study   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
This paper concerns the impact of human-induced global climate change on the River Rhine discharge. For this purpose a model for climate assessment, named ESCAPE, is coupled to a water balance model, named RHINEFLOW. From climate scenarios, changes in regional annual water availability and seasonal discharge in the River Rhine Basin are estimated. The climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. An assessment is made for best guess seasonal discharge changes and for changes in frequencies of low and high discharges in the downstream reaches of the river. In addition, a quantitative estimation of the uncertainties associated with this guess is arrived at.The results show that the extent and range of uncertainty is large with respect to the best guess changes. The uncertainty range is 2–3 times larger for the Business-as-Usual than for the Accelerated Policies scenarios. This large range stems from the doubtful precipitation simulations from the present General Circulation Models. This scenario study showed the precipitation scenarios to be the key-elements within the present range of reliable climate change scenarios.For the River Rhine best guess changes for annual water availability are small according to both scenarios. The river changes from a present combined snow-melt-rain fed river to an almost entirely rain fed river. The difference between present-day large average discharge in winter and the small average discharge in autumn should increase for all scenarios. This trend is largest in the Alpine part of the basin. Here, winter discharges should increase even for scenarios forecasting annual precipitation decreases. Summer discharge should decrease. Best guess scenarios should lead to increased frequencies of both low and high flow events in the downstream (Dutch) part of the river. The results indicate changes could be larger than presently assumed in worst case scenarios used by the Dutch water management authorities.  相似文献   

5.
Public expectation as an element of human perception of climate change   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
Human expectations regarding weather and climate sometimes lead to perceptions of climate change which are not supported by observational evidence. This paper analyses two very characteristic complaints about current climate in Switzerland, i.e., the lack of snow in winter and the lack of sunshine in summer, through a statistical investigation of climatological data. As one major problem of public perception of climate in mid-latitude regions is linked to the strong variability of the climatic parameters, the paper suggests means of presenting climatic data which include a measure of this variability. Such presentations would help overcome the common confusion between the terms weather and climate, and stress the fact that short-term extreme events are not necessarily indicative of a long-term shift in climate.  相似文献   

6.
Selected field measurements of evening stable boundary layers are presented in detail comparable with published Large Eddy Simulation results. Such models appear to match idealized theories more closely than do some boundary-layer observations. Any attempt to compare detailed observations with idealized models therefore highlights the variability of the real boundary layer.Here direct turbulence measurements across the stable boundary layer from a heterogeneous and an ideal site are contrasted. Recommendations are made for the information needed to distinguish heterogeneous and ideal cases.The companion paper (Part II) discusses further the issues of data, analysis in the presence of variability, and the effects of averaging over heterogeneous terrain.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Process Research Division.  相似文献   

7.
Progress in understanding how terrestrial ice volume is linked to Earths orbital configuration has been impeded by the cost of simulating climate system processes relevant to glaciation over orbital time scales (103–105 years). A compromise is usually made to represent the climate system by models that are averaged over one or more spatial dimensions or by three-dimensional models that are limited to simulating particular snapshots in time. We take advantage of the short equilibration time (10 years) of a climate model consisting of a three-dimensional atmosphere coupled to a simple slab ocean to derive the equilibrium climate response to accelerated variations in Earths orbital configuration over the past 165,000 years. Prominent decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall are simulated during three time intervals near 26, 73, and 117 thousand years ago (ka) when aphelion was in late spring and obliquity was low. There were also significant decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall near 97 and 142 ka when eccentricity was relatively large, aphelion was in late spring, and obliquity was high or near its long term mean. These glaciation-friendly time intervals correspond to prominent and secondary phases of terrestrial ice growth seen within the marine 18O record. Both dynamical and thermal effects contribute to the increases in snowfall during these periods, through increases in storm activity and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow. The majority of the mid- to high latitude response to orbital forcing is organized by the properties of sea ice, through its influence on radiative feedbacks that nearly double the size of the orbital forcing as well as its influence on the seasonal evolution of the latitudinal temperature gradient.  相似文献   

8.
Summary During an expedition to the high Andes of Southern Peru in June–July 1977, measurements of direct solar radiation in four spectral bands (0.270–0.530–0.630–0.695–2.900 ) were conducted at six sites in elevations ranging from sea level to 5645 m. These measurements were evaluated in Langley plots to determine total optical depths () and irradiances at the top of the atmosphere. In addition, water vapor optical depths (wv) were calculated from the mean radiosounding over Lima during the expedition, and Rayleigh (ray) and ozone (oz) optical depths were obtained from published tabulations. Subtracting ray, oz, and wv from yielded estimates of aerosol optical depth aer. The components ray and oz decrease from the shorter towards the longer wavelength bands and from the lower towards the higher elevation sites; aer also decreases towards the higher elevations. Particularly pronounced is the decrease of aer and from the lowlands of the Pacific coast to the highlands of the interior, reflecting the effect of a persistent lower-tropospheric inversion and the contrast from the marine boundary layer to the clear atmosphere of the high Andes.With 4 Figures  相似文献   

9.
Thermal comfort of man in different urban environments   总被引：2，自引：4，他引：2  
Summary On July 29, 1985, a hot summer day, biometeorological measurements were performed simultaneously in three different urban structures within the city of Munich and in the trunk space of a nearby tall spruce forest. Based on the results of these experiments the following thermophysiologically relevant biometeorological indices were calculated: Predicted mean vote, skin wettedness and physiologically equivalent temperature. These three indices are derived from different models for the human energy balance. They allow the assessment of the thermal components of the microclimates at the selected sites with regard to application in urban planning. The results quantitatively show the great heat stress in the urban structure street canyon, exposed to south, whereas in the trunk space of the tall spruce forest there is nearly an optimal climate even on hot summer days. Between these extremes the results for street canyon, exposed to north show a little higher heat load than for backyard with trees.
Zusammenfassung An einem heißen Sommertag, dem 29. Juli 1985, wurden in drei Stadtstrukturen in München und im Stammraum eines nahegelegenen Fichtenhochwaldes zeitgleich biometeorologische Messungen durchgeführt. Mit den Meßergebnissen wurden folgende thermophysiologisch relevante biometeorologische Indizes berechnet: Predicted mean vote, Hautbenetzungsgrad und physiologisch äquivalente Temperatur. Diese drei Indizes beruhen auf verschiedenen Modellen zur menschlichen Energiebilanz. Mit den drei Indizes wurden die thermischen Komponenten der Mikroklimate an den ausgewählten Meßplätzen im Hinblick auf Stadtplanungsaufgaben bewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen quantitativ die relativ große Hitzebelastung bei der Stadtstruktur Straßenschlucht, nach Süd exponiert, während im Stammraum des Fichtenhochwaldes selbst an heißen Sommertagen nahezu optimale Bedingungen herrschen. Zwischen diesen Extremen liegen die Ergebnisse für die anderen Meßplätze, wobei für Straßenschlucht, nach Nord exponiert die Wärmebelastung etwas höher als für Innenhof mit Bäumen ist.

With 6 Figures  相似文献   

10.
Summary ¶In order to better understand land-atmosphere interactions and increase the predictability of climate models, it is important to investigate the role of forest representation in climate modeling. Corresponding to the big-leaf model commonly employed in land surface schemes to represent the effects of a forest, a so called big-tree model, which uses multi-layer vegetation to represent the vertical canopy heterogeneity, was introduced and incorporated into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) regional climate model RegCM2, to make the vegetation model more physically based. Using this augmented RegCM2 and station data for China during 1991 Meiyu season, we performed 10 experiments to investigate the effects of the application of the big-tree model on the summer monsoon climate.With the big-tree model incorporated into the regional climate model, some climate characteristics, e.g. the 3-month-mean surface temperature, circulation, and precipitation, are significantly and systematically changed over the model domain, and the change of the characteristics differs depending on the area. Due to the better representation of the shading effect in the big-tree model, the temperature of the lower layer atmosphere above the plant canopy is increased, which further influences the 850hPa temperature. In addition, there are significant decreases in the mean latent heat fluxes (within 20–30W/m2) in the three areas of the model domain.The application of the big-tree model influences not only the simulated climate of the forested area, but also that of the whole model domain, and its impact is greater on the lower atmosphere than on the upper atmosphere. The simulated rainfall and surface temperature deviate from the originally simulated result and are (or seem to be) closer to the observations, which implies that an appropriate representation of the big-tree model may improve the simulation of the summer monsoon climate.We also find that the simulated climate is sensitive to some big-tree parameter values and schemes, such as the shape, height, zero-plane displacement height and mixing-length scheme. The simulated local/grid differences may be very large although the simulated areal-average differences may be much lower. The area-average differences in the monthly-mean surface temperature and heat fluxes can amount to 0.5°C and 4W/m2, respectively, which correspond to maximum local/grid differences of 3.0°C and 40W/m2 respectively. It seems that the simulated climate is most sensitive to the parameter of the zero-plane displacement among the parameters studied.  相似文献   

11.
Summary The paper presents a detailed investigation of magnitudes and properties pertaining to the large population of rainfall events recorded during 49 years at the Fabra Observatory in Barcelona. The study includes a statistical analysis of event durationT and rainfall quantityQ together with the statistical rainfall rate parameters: , 2(R) and maximum Rm within an event. The decorrelation time is also analysed. It is found thatQ, T, and can be well modelled by a lognormal distribution, but , 2 and Rm are only so for a limited range of precipitation ratesR. The regression analysis between pairs of logarithms of the magnitudes investigated is generally good and a regression coefficient is often better than 0.9. Comparison with published work is also carried out. An attempt is made to discriminate between heavy and non-heavy rainfall rates, and the 50 mm/h threshold is used for the study. The twelve-monthly running average indicates that the rainfall amount has a small increasing trend over the fifty year period. However, this trend is reversed when considering heavy rains. Finally, the return period in years to exceeding a thresholdR within an event is also investigated and the distribution of the population of annual extremes is found to be Gumbel II.With 6 Figures  相似文献   

12.
A new, biogeochemical model of ice age cycles is developed and applied which explains major features of climate variations in the late Quaternary —rapid ice age terminations, large glacial-interglacial amplitudes and 100-kyr cycles — in a way consistent with the paleorecord. Existing models which invoke non-linear, ice-sheet-earth-crust dynamics to explain ice age cycles are not consistent with simultaneous terminations in both hemispheres and other phase relationships implied by the paleorecord. The present model relates climate change to oscillations of oceanic primary (new) production controlled by the availability of inorganic nitrogen. Large oscillations follow shelf erosion events triggered by small sea-level drops. These drops are due to glacial buildup associated with a minimum in Northern Hemisphere insolation. Rapid global warming at terminations is initiated by open ocean denitrification events leading to new production crashes and rapid modification of atmospheric trace gas concentrations (CO2, DMS, N2O). Other feedbacks of the land-ice-atmosphere-ocean system control the rest of the climate cycle. 100-kyr cycles derive from orbital pacemaking of the strong, low-frequency model response. Results suggest that the climate regime transition near 800 kyr B.P. may be related to changes in the continental shelf slope, that existing chronologies based on orbital tuning may need to be revised and that temporary increases in atmospheric N2O concentrations at terminations, due to the denitrification events, may have caused significant greenhouse warming. A spike of elevated N2O concentration at terminations may be recorded in polar ice.  相似文献   

13.
Summary A simple method of representing cumulative frequency distributions ofk-day period amounts of precipitation (30k1800), deduced from observations at Hoofddorp during 87 years and from observations at Winterswijk during 73 years, by means of cumulative Poisson distributions, had been developed. Poisson's constant appeared to depend linearly onk only, while the Poisson unitq appeared to be only proportional to the annual variation.In this paper it is shown that the representation of observed cumulative frequency distributions with the aid of Poisson distributions is true for any station in The Netherlands in the interval 30k1800. A map with isopleths of -values fork=360 presents a simple picture, so that for any station an -value fork=360 can be estimated. For the process of representation the meank-day period amount of precipitation is also necessary. This value may be obtained from a map for each of the 12 months, each map covered with isohyetal lines, which give a distribution of the monthly precipitation.
Zusammenfassung Es wurde eine Methode entwickelt, um in einfacher Weise Summenfunktionen vonk-tägigen Niederschlagsmengen (30k1800), welche aus Beobachtungen in Hoofddorp während 87 Jahren und in Winterswijk während 73 Jahren angestellt worden sind, durch kumulative Poissonsche Häufigkeitsverteilungen darzustellen. Dabei ergab sich, daß die Poissonsche Konstante nur linear vonk abhängig ist, während die Poissonsche Einheitq sich als proportional zum Jahresgang erwies.In der vorliegenden Untersuchung wird nun gezeigt, daß die Darstellung der beobachteten kumulativen Häufigkeitsverteilungen mit Hilfe von Poisson-Verteilungen für irgendeine Station in den Niederlanden im Bereich von 30k1800 gültig ist. Eine Karte mit Isoplethen der -Werte fürk=360 ergibt ein einfaches Bild, aus dem für jede beliebige Station ein -Wert fürk=360 abgelesen werden kann. Für eine solche Darstellung muß auch die Niederschlagsmenge derk-tägigen Perioden bekannt sein; diese Werte erhält man aus monatlichen Isohyeten-Karten, die die monatliche Niederschlagsverteilung wiedergeben.
Résumé On avait développé une méthode pour représenter d'une façon simple les distributions des sommes cumulées dek jours (30k1800) des quantités de précipitations déduites des observations faites à Hoofddorp pendant 87 ans et à Winterswijk pendant 73 ans. On avait démontré que la constante de Poisson ne dépend dek que linéairement et que l'unité de Poissonq est proportionnelle à la variation annuelle.De la présente étude ressort que, dans l'intervalle de 30k1800, la représentation des distributions des fréquences cumulées observées au moyen des formules de Poisson est valable pour une station quelconque aux Pays-Bas. Une carte d'isoplèthes de la valeur pourk=360 donne une image suffisamment simple pour que la valeur d'une station quelconque aux Pays-Bas puisse être déterminée sans difficulté. Pour une telle représentation il faut connaître également les moyennes des quantités des périodes dek jours de la précipitation. Ces valeurs peuvent se déduire de cartes mensuelles des isohyètes moyennes.

With 1 Figure

Dedicated to Dr.Anders K. Ångström on the occasion of his 70th birthday.  相似文献   

14.
Whether in classical networks such as meteorological networks of in more recent ones of atmospheric chemistry, a wealth of data is at hand. These data have been evaluated in a manner depending on the purpose of the network. However, much more information is hidden in these time series and waits for discovery. Only the imagination of scientists is needed. Four examples are given which lead to new information about the atmospheric aerosol and the behaviour of the atmosphere. These examples are: Atmospheric turbidity from sunshine recordings, Meteorological drainage area from the variance of observations, Location of point sources from air mass trajectories, and Total vertical ozone from turbidity measurements.  相似文献   

15.
Summary Simulated temperature and precipitation changes over western Europe for a scenario of doubled atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are presented. The simulations are performed using a Limited Area Model LAM (RegCM2) nested into a General Circulation Model (ECHAM3). Both model components are operated at very high spatial resolutions — approximately 120 km for the GCM and 20 km for the LAM; the LAM domain encompasses a region of 1100 × 1100 km squared. Climatologies for five January and five July periods have been simulated. Average surface (2 m) temperatures are found to increase by 1.4 K in winter (January) and 3.9 K in summer (July); this latter figure is, however, largely dependent on a positive bias in the summer temperature fields of the driving GCM. Average precipitation changes are generally small in absolute values, but exhibit considerable spatial variability. Large precipitation amounts are seen to be shifted towards higher elevations with a corresponding reduction in the upwind areas. The results are discussed taking into account the predictive skill of the modelling system, which is derived from comparing the simulated present day temperature and precipitation fields to the corresponding climatological information. A method is introduced to assess the reliability of climate scenario predictions — such as those discussed here — on the basis of this predictive skill.With 14 Figures  相似文献   

16.
Summary A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present January climate.List of Symbols west-east mesh size in geographic coordinates south-north mesh size in geographic coordinates N number of large-scale weather classes n number of regional-scale event classes p pressure P probability Ø large-scale event regional-scale event q v specific humidity potential temperature u west-east wind component v south-north wind componentAbbreviations AGL above ground level - LT local time - UTC universal time coordinated With 13 Figures  相似文献   

17.
As argued in Part I (Derbyshire, 1995), variability is a key issue in stable boundary layers, and differences in variability between observations and idealized models may imply sytematic biases. Here we discuss how data analysis can be geared to allow for variability and thus consistency with models. Instrumental errors, smoothing methods and vertical discretization are considered. We then show how statistical averaging broadly improves the agreement of heterogeneous results in Part I with the Brost-Wyngaard closure. Recommendations are made for the information needed to analyze apparent differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous stable boundary layers.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Processes Research Division  相似文献   

18.
Weekly bulk aerosol samples collected at Funafuti, Tuvalu (8°30S, 179°12E), American Samoa (14°15S, 170°35W), and Rarotonga (21°15S, 159°45W), from 1983 through most of 1987 have been analyzed for nitrate and other constituents. The mean nitrate concentration is about 0.11 g m–3 at each of these stations: 0.107±0.011 g m–3 at Funafuti; 0.116±0.008 at American Samoa; and 0.117±0.010 at Rarotonga. Previous measurements of mineral aerosol and trace metal concentrations at American Samoa are among the lowest ever recorded for the near-surface troposphere and indicate that this region is minimally affected by transport of soil material and pollutants from the continents. Consequently, the nitrate concentration of 0.11 g m–3 can be regarded as the natural level for the remote marine boundary layer of the tropical South Pacific Ocean. In contrast, over the tropical North Pacific which is significantly impacted by the transport of material from Asia and North America, the mean nitrate concentrations are about three times higher, 0.29 and 0.36 g m–3 at Midway and Oahu, respectively. The major sources of the nitrate over the tropical South Pacific are still very uncertain. A very significant correlation between the nitrate concentrations at American Samoa and the concentrations of 210Pb suggests that transport from continental sources might be important. This continental source could be lightning, which occurs most frequently over the tropical continents. A near-zero correlation with 7Be indicates that the stratosphere and upper troposphere are probably not the major sources. A significant biogenic source would be consistent with the higher mean nitrate concentrations, 0.16 to 0.17 g m–3, found over the equatorial Pacific at Fanning Island (3°55N, 159°20W) and Nauru (0°32S, 166°57E). The lack of correlation between nitrate and nss sulfate at American Samoa does not necessarily preclude an important role for marine biogenic sources.  相似文献   

19.
Summary Limits of warm and cold stress in different climatic regions are determined by means of temperature, wind speed and humidity for the period 1976–1985. These values are measured at 2 PM local time during July for warm stress and at 7 AM local time during January for cold stress. Hvar (20 m ASL) is used to represent maritime climate, Zavian on the top of Mount Velebit (1594 m ASL) and Skrad (668 m ASL) in Gorski Kotar are representative of mountainous climate, and Zagreb (128 m ASL) is representative of continental low-land climate. Values of a biometeorological Temperature-Wind Speed-Humidity (TWH)-index higher than the 98% value of the theoretical distribution fitted to empirical data represent above normal extreme conditions at a given location, and TWH values less than 2% value of the theoretical distribution represent below normal extreme conditions. For similar temperatures, it will be extremely above normal at the top of Mount Velebit (Zavian) whilst normal on the coast (Hvar), and similarly, it will be extremely below normal in Hvar but normal at Zavian.With 4 Figures  相似文献   

20.
The issue of whether the secular climate (twentieth century) is stationary or changing to some new semi-permanent state is clouded by the presence of so-called climate fluctuations. The twentieth century climate record of the United States reveals a substantial number of decadal fluctuations which occur in all seasons for both temperature and precipitation. Recent examples of such behavior include changes in winter and summer temperature variability and increases in transition season precipitation. Statistical evidence suggests that a substantial portion of these fluctuations, even those which are remarkably unusual, are merely manifestations of a stochastic process which possesses weak year-to-year persistence as viewed from an a posteriori perspective. The implications of this result are particularly important with respect to the formulation of physical causes of the fluctuations. The results emphasize the desirability of well-founded clearly-stated a priori theories of climate change as well as the limited usefulness of widely used climate normals.  相似文献   

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