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1.
Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO2-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. 相似文献
2.
R. Warren J. A. Lowe N. W. Arnell C. Hope P. Berry S. Brown A. Gambhir S. N. Gosling R. J. Nicholls J. O’Hanley T. J. Osborn T. Osborne J. Price S. C. B. Raper G. Rose J. Vanderwal 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):55-70
Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions. 相似文献
3.
Stewart Cohen Denise Neilsen Scott Smith Tina Neale Bill Taylor Mark Barton Wendy Merritt Younes Alila Philippa Shepherd Roger Mcneill James Tansey Jeff Carmichael Stacy Langsdale 《Climatic change》2006,75(3):331-358
The research activity described in this report is a comprehensive regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on
water resources and options for adaptation in the Okanagan Basin. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop integrated
climate change and water resource scenarios to stimulate a multistakeholder discussion on the implications of climate change
for water management in the region.
The paper describes two main objectives: (a) providing a set of research products that will be of relevance to regional interests
in the Okanagan, and (b) establishing a methodology for participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change impacts
and adaptation that could be applied to climate-related concerns in Canada and other countries.
This collaborative study has relied on field research, computer-based models, and dialogue exercises to generate an assessment
of future implications, and to learn about regional views on the prospects for adaptation. Along the way, it has benefited
from strong partnerships with governments, researchers, local water practitioners, and user groups. Building on the scenario-based
study components, and a series of interviews and surveys undertaken for the water management and adaptation case study components,
a set of stakeholder dialogue sessions were organized which focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and processes
for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on the “best” option or process, regional interests were asked to
consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could address both supply side and demand side
aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan.
The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright. 相似文献
4.
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6). 相似文献
5.
Forest-driven water and energy cycles are poorly integrated into regional, national, continental and global decision-making on climate change adaptation, mitigation, land use and water management. This constrains humanity’s ability to protect our planet’s climate and life-sustaining functions. The substantial body of research we review reveals that forest, water and energy interactions provide the foundations for carbon storage, for cooling terrestrial surfaces and for distributing water resources. Forests and trees must be recognized as prime regulators within the water, energy and carbon cycles. If these functions are ignored, planners will be unable to assess, adapt to or mitigate the impacts of changing land cover and climate. Our call to action targets a reversal of paradigms, from a carbon-centric model to one that treats the hydrologic and climate-cooling effects of trees and forests as the first order of priority. For reasons of sustainability, carbon storage must remain a secondary, though valuable, by-product. The effects of tree cover on climate at local, regional and continental scales offer benefits that demand wider recognition. The forest- and tree-centered research insights we review and analyze provide a knowledge-base for improving plans, policies and actions. Our understanding of how trees and forests influence water, energy and carbon cycles has important implications, both for the structure of planning, management and governance institutions, as well as for how trees and forests might be used to improve sustainability, adaptation and mitigation efforts. 相似文献
6.
气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
通过论述气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,它包括：未来气候变化对中国水资源潜在影响的定性描述分析、半定量与定量分析以及适应性对策评估。由于不同气候区域所面临的水资源问题不同,选择中国4个典型案例区域,并确定不同的目标进行气候变化适应性管理综合研究,提出了甄别气候变化影响和适应性管理的新的思路、框架与方法论。该项研究为应对未来气候变化影响的水资源规划与风险管理提供了途径与方法。 相似文献
7.
气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过论述气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,它包括：未来气候变化对中国水资源潜在影响的定性描述分析、半定量与定量分析以及适应性对策评估。由于不同气候区域所面临的水资源问题不同,选择中国4个典型案例区域,并确定不同的目标进行气候变化适应性管理综合研究,提出了甄别气候变化影响和适应性管理的新的思路、框架与方法论。该项研究为应对未来气候变化影响的水资源规划与风险管理提供了途径与方法。 相似文献
8.
Access to energy can significantly contribute to the development of the living standards of the energy poor. Also if the provision of access to energy is sustainable, i.e. via renewable energy sources, there is an added benefit of contributing to mitigation of climate change. Currently, the percentage of population with access to energy varies significantly between countries and across regions. This is due to the nature of national socio-economic situations and energy resource availability in differing settings. This article addresses issues and hindrances to energy access in regional contexts and also examines, in particular, the prospects of how regional cooperation initiatives linked with climate change mitigation objectives could assist in widening energy access. Existing relevant regional cooperation initiatives that may be upscaled or used as models to widen access to modern energy services are evaluated. Findings are that regional cooperation initiatives linked with climate change mitigation can potentially facilitate widening energy access. However, in order to realise such potential, synergies from regional cooperation that are indirectly linked to energy and wider climate change mitigation programs should be harnessed. Recommendations are made for development of sustainable energy programs in energy deprived regions that will also mitigate climate change impacts. 相似文献
9.
During the last decades of growing scientific, political and public attention to global climate change, it has become increasingly clear that the present and projected impacts from climate change, and the ability adapt to the these changes, are not evenly distributed across the globe. This paper investigates whether the need for knowledge on climate changes in the most vulnerable regions of the world is met by the supply of knowledge measured by scientific research publications from the last decade. A quantitative analysis of more than 15,000 scientific publications from 197 countries investigates the distribution of climate change research and the potential causes of this distribution. More than 13 explanatory variables representing vulnerability, geographical, demographical, economical and institutional indicators are included in the analysis. The results show that the supply of climate change knowledge is biased toward richer countries, which are more stable and less corrupt, have higher school enrolment and expenditures on research and development, emit more carbon and are less vulnerable to climate change. Similarly, the production of knowledge, analyzed by author affiliations, is skewed away from the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. A quantitative keywords analysis of all publications shows that different knowledge domains and research themes dominate across regions, reflecting the divergent global concerns in relation to climate change. In general, research on climate change in more developed countries tend to focus on mitigation aspects, while in developing countries issues of adaptation and human or social impacts (droughts and diseases) dominate. Based on these findings, this paper discusses the gap between the supply of and need for climate change knowledge, the potential causes and constraints behind the imbalanced distribution of knowledge, and its implications for adaptation and policymaking. 相似文献
10.
Impact of climate change on Pacific Northwest hydropower 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The Pacific Northwest (PNW) hydropower resource, central to the region’s electricity supply, is vulnerable to the impacts
of climate change. The Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NWPCC), an interstate compact agency, has conducted long
term planning for the PNW electricity supply for its 2005 Power Plan. In formulating its power portfolio recommendation, the
NWPCC explored uncertainty in variables that affect the availability and cost of electricity over the next 20 years. The NWPCC
conducted an initial assessment of potential impacts of climate change on the hydropower system, but these results are not
incorporated in the risk model upon which the 2005 Plan recommendations are based. To assist in bringing climate information
into the planning process, we present an assessment of uncertainty in future PNW hydropower generation potential based on
a comprehensive set of climate models and greenhouse gas emissions pathways. We find that the prognosis for PNW hydropower
supply under climate change is worse than anticipated by the NWPCC’s assessment. Differences between the predictions of individual
climate models are found to contribute more to overall uncertainty than do divergent emissions pathways. Uncertainty in predictions
of precipitation change appears to be more important with respect to impact on PNW hydropower than uncertainty in predictions
of temperature change. We also find that a simple regression model captures nearly all of the response of a sequence of complex
numerical models to large scale changes in climate. This result offers the possibility of streamlining both top-down impact
assessment and bottom-up adaptation planning for PNW water and energy resources. 相似文献
11.
Climate change assessments which have considered climate impacts of a 2xCO2 climate, using models of the global agricultural system, have found small impacts on overall production, but larger regional changes. Production shifts among regions can be considered one mechanism for adaptation. Adaptation at the farm level, through changes in crops, cultivars, and production practices, is another adaptation mechanism. Existing studies differ in how important these mechanisms will be. Studies that have considered yield effects at specific sites have found very wide ranges of impacts. A useful way to evaluate the impacts of climate change, given the uncertainty about future impacts, is to consider vulnerability. Studies have defined vulnerability in terms of yield, farm profitability, regional economy, and hunger. Vulnerability and climate impacts, particularly in terms of higher order effects on profitability and sustainability, will depend on how society and the economy develop. Lower income populations and marginal agricultural regions, particularly arid or flood prone areas, are most vulnerable to climate change. 相似文献
12.
Katherine Calvin Marshall Wise Leon Clarke Jae Edmonds Page Kyle Patrick Luckow Allison Thomson 《Climatic change》2013,117(3):545-560
Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation. 相似文献
13.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(2-3):145-159
Abstract Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adaptation has recently gained importance, yet adaptation is much less developed than mitigation as a policy response. Adaptation research has been used to help answer to related but distinct questions. (1) To what extent can adaptation reduce impacts of climate change? (2) What adaptation policies are needed, and how can they best be developed, applied and funded? For the first question, the emphasis is on the aggregate value of adaptation so that this may be used to estimate net impacts. An important purpose is to compare net impacts with the costs of mitigation. In the second question, the emphasis is on the design and prioritisation of adaptation policies and measures. While both types of research are conducted in a policy context, they differ in their character, application, and purpose. The impacts/mitigation research is orientated towards the physical and biological science of impacts and adaptation, while research on the ways and means of adaptation is focussed on the social and economic determinants of vulnerability in a development context. The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the national adaptation studies carried under the UNFCCC are broadening the paradigm, from the impacts/mitigation to vulnerability/adaptation. For this to occur, new policy research is needed. While the broad new directions of both research and policy can now be discerned, there remain a number of outstanding issues to be considered. 相似文献
14.
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Detlef P. van Vuuren Keywan Riahi Richard Moss Jae Edmonds Allison Thomson Nebojsa Nakicenovic Tom Kram Frans Berkhout Rob Swart Anthony Janetos Steven K. Rose Nigel Arnell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):21-35
In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities. 相似文献
15.
Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental, Integrated Analysis 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
Bernhard Lehner Petra Döll Joseph Alcamo Thomas Henrichs Frank Kaspar 《Climatic change》2006,75(3):273-299
Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability,
and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and
droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that
climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will
put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time
continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future
flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated
regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood
and drought frequencies. The results indicate large ‘critical regions’ for which significant changes in flood or drought risks
are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern
to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical
regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10–50 years by the 2070s. Though
interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance
of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale. 相似文献
16.
《Climate Policy》2002,2(2-3):145-159
Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adaptation has recently gained importance, yet adaptation is much less developed than mitigation as a policy response. Adaptation research has been used to help answer to related but distinct questions. (1) To what extent can adaptation reduce impacts of climate change? (2) What adaptation policies are needed, and how can they best be developed, applied and funded? For the first question, the emphasis is on the aggregate value of adaptation so that this may be used to estimate net impacts. An important purpose is to compare net impacts with the costs of mitigation. In the second question, the emphasis is on the design and prioritisation of adaptation policies and measures. While both types of research are conducted in a policy context, they differ in their character, application, and purpose. The impacts/mitigation research is orientated towards the physical and biological science of impacts and adaptation, while research on the ways and means of adaptation is focussed on the social and economic determinants of vulnerability in a development context. The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the national adaptation studies carried under the UNFCCC are broadening the paradigm, from the impacts/mitigation to vulnerability/adaptation. For this to occur, new policy research is needed. While the broad new directions of both research and policy can now be discerned, there remain a number of outstanding issues to be considered. 相似文献
17.
Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Emma L. Tompkins W. Neil Adger Emily Boyd Sophie Nicholson-Cole Keith Weatherhead Nigel Arnell 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(4):627-635
This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries. 相似文献
18.
陈敏鹏 《气候变化研究进展》2020,16(1):105-116
减缓和适应是应对气候变化的互补性策略,但在《联合国气候变化框架公约》（简称《公约》）的谈判中,适应在很长一段时期都处于减缓的从属地位。《公约》20多年的适应谈判进程可划为早期缓慢发展、科学和技术讨论、适应与减缓并重、增强适应行动和全面适应行动5个阶段,呈现出由无到有、重要性不断增强的特点。这一特点反映了全球对气候变化影响和适应重要性认识的不断深入及适应气候变化挑战的不断增强。未来适应谈判将聚焦于如何通过《公约》现有机制增强行动及如何增加适应资金以满足发展中国家的适应需求。 相似文献
19.
气候变化科学方面的几个最新认知 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告主要从以下几个方面的进展提升了我们对气候系统变化、气候变化原因以及预估未来气候系统变化等方面的认知,对过去气候变化及其与人类活动的关系有了更加清晰、可靠的认识。综合多重证据评估指出,全球气候正经历着前所未有的变化;包括极端事件在内的归因进展已把人类活动对气候系统影响的认识从大气圈扩展到水圈、冰冻圈和生物圈,进一步强化了人类活动影响全球和区域气候的认识;有关区域气候变化信息的内容更加丰富,与各行业和敏感地区的气候变化影响联系更加紧密,使这些信息能更好地为气候变化风险评估和气候变化区域适应提供支持;气候模式和约束预估方法的发展以及对气候敏感度认识的深化,减少了未来不同排放情景下全球地表温度（Global Surface Temperature,GST)、海平面上升和海洋热含量的变化预估的不确定性。这份最新报告对我国提升气候变化研究水平和防灾减灾应对能力具有十分重要的指导意义。 相似文献
20.
Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt ‘autonomously’, since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour. 相似文献