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1.
根据云南省7个辐射站太阳总辐射资料和113个台站日照百分率资料,建立了1961-2007年全省太阳总辐射时间序列,运用旋转主分量方法将全省分为4个区,并在此基础上研究云南太阳总辐射的时空分布和变化特征。结果表明：云南太阳总辐射呈中部多,西南部次之,东部及西北部少的分布特征。1961-2007年呈波段减少的变化趋势,线性倾向率为-0.64%/10a,其中中部及东部显著减少,西南部略有增加。其间出现两次突变,一次是1986年的显著减少,另一次是1993年以后的回升。分析表明,相对湿度和云量是影响太阳总辐射变化的主要气象因子。 相似文献
2.
A new scheme for the estimation of daily global solar radiation over sloped topography in China is developed based on the Iqbal model C and MODIS cloud fraction. The effects of topography are determined using a digital elevation model. The scheme is tested using observations of solar radiation at 98 stations in China, and the results show that the mean absolute bias error is 1.51 MJ m~(-2) d~(-1) and the mean relative absolute bias error is 10.57%. Based on calculations using this scheme,the distribution of daily global solar radiation over slopes in China on four days in the middle of each season(15 January,15 April, 15 July and 15 October 2003) at a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km are analyzed. To investigate the effects of topography on global solar radiation, the results determined in four mountains areas(Tianshan, Kunlun Mountains, Qinling,and Nanling) are discussed, and the typical characteristics of solar radiation over sloped surfaces revealed. In general, the new scheme can produce reasonable characteristics of solar radiation distribution at a high spatial resolution in mountain areas,which will be useful in analyses of mountain climate and planning for agricultural production. 相似文献
3.
Ren Li Lin Zhao Tonghua Wu Yongjian Ding Yufei Xin Defu Zou Yao Xiao Yongliang Jiao Yanhui Qin Linchan Sun 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(3-4):573-583
Global solar radiation is of great significance to the balance of ground surface radiation, the energy exchange between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere, and the development of weather and climate systems in various regions. In this study, the monthly global radiation recorded at 23 stations over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) was utilized to estimate global solar radiation (Q) from sunshine duration and to obtain improved fits to the variation coefficients of the monthly Angström–Prescott model (APM). The modeling results were evaluated by calculating the statistical errors, including mean bias error, mean absolute error, root mean square error, and mean relative error. We demonstrate that the monthly Q values can be predicted accurately by APM over the QTP. We also assess the variations of Q values at 116 meteorological stations by APM over the QTP during 1961–2000. The analysis shows that the annual mean sunshine duration amounted to more than 3,000 h over the whole plateau, implying promising prospects for economic applications of solar energy. During the past 40 years, the mean global solar radiation has been relatively high in the western QTP, extending northward to the Inner Mongolian Plateau. Although its decadal variations in the QTP and surrounding regions were inconsistent, the anomaly values of global solar radiation were generally positive during the 1960s and 1970s, indicating that the QTP’s global solar radiation has increased during those periods. The anomaly values were negative during the 1980s and 1990s, showing that the plateau’s global solar radiation has decreased during those periods. Global solar radiation over the QTP is negatively proportional to latitude but positively proportional to altitude and relative sunshine duration. Three factors, the sunshine duration, latitude, and altitude, exert great influence on global surface radiation, of which sunshine duration is most significant. A high-variation-coefficient zone of global solar radiation occurred in the western part of the QTP but, on average, the variation coefficient of the plateau’s global solar radiation was only 0.031, suggesting that the variation in global radiation was relatively stable over the whole QTP. 相似文献
4.
Abstract Bogusing errors associated with estimating rainfalls for ungauged points on Canada's eastern Prairies based on the near real‐time network have been determined for growing season totals, summer monthly amounts and summer daily values. The bogusing errors as a percentage of the concurrent area‐average amount or the coefficients of variation decreased as the measurement period increased. Growing season precipitation totals can be approximated to within 20%. The error associated with bogused summer monthly amounts was more than twice as large. The field of summer daily rainfall amounts cannot be estimated accurately. It can be concluded, therefore, that the precipitation network on the eastern Prairies is not sufficient for applications requiring the input of summer daily or monthly precipitation amounts from points other than the gauged locations. The network does, nevertheless, provide relatively accurate estimates of the growing season's precipitation field to assist in defining the climate. Reductions in the magnitude of the bogusing errors associated with estimated precipitation amounts can be achieved by adding new stations to the network. While additional sites provide data at the newly gauged points, they do little to improve the network's representation of the rainfall field unless the new stations are added in fairly large numbers. 相似文献
5.
Fang Xianjin 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1990,4(4):513-522
A method(Rieland,1985)has been modified to determine the downward solar radiation at ground overEast Asia,using GMS-3 data of the satellite with a spatial resolution of 10×10 krn~2 and a time interval of 3hours.The distributions of the monthly mean global radiation are obtained for January,April,July and Octoberof 1985.These results illustrate that the topography effect of the Tibetan Plateau is not negligible.The valuesof global radiation over the high Tibetan Plateau during all seasons are higher than those in the lower-levelsurroundings.By comparing model results with ground observed data, the relative errors in monthly averagesof global radiation are 2.8％ for clear sky and 6.3％,5.3％,5.0％ and 4.5％ for cloudy sky in January,April,July and October,respectively.The relative error in daily global radiation during the snow-free season is lessthan 20％ and larger than 20％ in snow-covered winter.We,however,had no data for these comparisons whichwere measured directly at the Plateau during the year 1985. 相似文献
6.
In this study,the clear sky hourly global and net solar irradiances at the surface determined using SUNFLUX,a simple parameterization scheme,for three stations(Gaize,Naqu,and Lhasa) on the Tibetan Plateau were evaluated against observation data.Our modeled results agree well with observations.The correlation coefficients between modeled and observed values were > 0.99 for all three stations.The relative error of modeled results,in average was < 7%,and the root-mean-square variance was < 27 W m 2.The solar irradiances in the radiation model were slightly overestimated compared with observation data;there were at least two likely causes.First,the radiative effects of aerosols were not included in the radiation model.Second,solar irradiances determined by thermopile pyranometers include a thermal offset error that causes solar radiation to be slightly underestimated.The solar radiation absorbed by the ozone and water vapor was estimated.The results show that monthly mean solar radiation absorbed by the ozone is < 2% of the global solar radiation(< 14 W m 2).Solar radiation absorbed by water vapor is stronger in summer than in winter.The maximum amount of monthly mean solar radiation absorbed by water vapor can be up to 13% of the global solar radiation(95 W m 2).This indicates that water vapor measurements with high precision are very important for precise determination of solar radiation. 相似文献
7.
Summary Six methods were used to interpolate the monthly mean climatological data from German climate stations to three Bavarian
forest climate stations. The observed forest climatological data at the Bavarian forest climate stations were used as the
reference data to which the interpolated data were compared. The results show that, for monthly mean daily maximum temperature
at valley and plain forest climate stations, each of the six interpolation methods can give accurate estimates. For monthly
mean daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, air temperature and water vapor pressure at mountain forest climate stations,
topographically aided interpolation can give the most accurate estimates. Barnes interpolation combined with empirical transfer
functions can give accurate estimates forall climate variables at the plain and valley forest climate stations, and it can
also give accurate estimates for monthly mean wind speed and monthly precipitation at the mountain forest climate station.
The empirical transfer functions are very important for estimating the forest climatological data. These transfer functions
will be used for reconstruction of long-term forest climatological data in Bavaria.
Received September 9, 1998 Revised May 21, 1999 相似文献
8.
甘肃马衔山区陆面过程与降水的研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
采用定西的麦田微气象观测,定西、兰州的辐射观测和马衔山区34个气象、水文和雨量站的气候资料,结合NOAA-16卫星的AVHRR资料以及反演的地表植被盖度和反射率,并用SEBAL算法推导出夏季地表净辐射、感热、潜热、土壤热通量密度的区域分布特征,并分析陆面过程对降水的影响。结果表明:本区降水的空间分布与夏季植被盖度对应最好,相关系数高达0.722,其次是土壤热通量和潜热通量,相关系数分别为-0.65和0.615。这表明森林通过降低地表反射率和表面温度,不仅增加地表净辐射,而且减少其用于感热和土壤热通量的消耗。由于林区地表水分多,从而将接收较多的太阳辐射能主要用于蒸散,增加边界层中的水汽。故林区降水远大于植被稀疏的半干旱黄土梁。 相似文献
9.
10.
Summary ?A major limitation in predicting the ultraviolet-B irradiance on humans, plant leaves and flowers and aquatic organisms is
the difficulty in estimating exposure. This study analyzes the spatial variability in the daily exposure of narrow band 300 nm
and 368 nm and broadband 290–315 nm (UVB) solar radiation between twelve paired locations in the United States Department
of Agriculture (USDA) UVB Climate Network over two summer growing seasons (May through August of 2000 and 2001). The spatial
correlation of the UVB, 300 nm and 368 nm daily exposures between locations was approximately 0.7 to 0.8 for spacing distances
of 100 km. The 300 nm daily exposure was typically more highly correlated between locations than the 368 nm daily exposure.
Both the diffuse and direct beam components to the 300 nm daily exposure were similarly correlated with distance between locations.
The 368 nm diffuse component of the daily exposures was less correlated with distance than the direct beam component, limiting
the ability to interpolate daily exposures from measurement locations. In general the variability in daily exposures of UVB
in the USDA UVB Climate Network is too large to interpolate daily exposures of solar radiation, with estimated 300 nm, 368 nm
and broadband UVB errors at one-half the mean station spacing of the USDA Network of 22%, 21% and 16% respectively. More accurate
interpolations of UVB exposure from this network will require either the incorporation of cloud cover variability from satellite
imagery for daily exposure or the use of longer periods of accumulated exposure.
Received May 14, 2002; revised October 25, 2002; accepted November 16, 2002 相似文献
11.
This work was focused on the assessment of changes occurring in crop production and climate during the 20th century in Argentina.
The study was carried out for nine sites located in the Pampas region that are representative of contrasting environments.
We have considered the four main crops cultivated in this area (wheat, maize, sunflower and soybean). Historical climatic
data and crop production related variables (yield, planted area, harvested area) were analyzed and, by means of crop simulation
models, we quantified the impact of climate on crop yields. Changes occurring in climate during the three last decades of
the 20th century were characterized by important increases in precipitation especially between October and March, decreases
in maximum temperature and solar radiation in particular during spring and summer and increases in minimum temperature during
almost all of the year. These changes contributed to increases in yields, especially in summer crops and in the semiarid zone,
mostly due to increases in precipitation, although changes in temperature and radiation also affected crop yields but to a
lesser extent. Comparing the period 1950–1970 with 1971–1999, yields increases attributable to changes in climate were 38%
in soybean, 18% in maize, 13% in wheat, and 12% in sunflower while mean observed yield increases were 110% for maize, 56%
for wheat and 102% for sunflower. 相似文献
12.
THE LIGHT EQUIVALENT OF TOTAL SOLAR RADIATION AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE CALCULATION OF ILLUMINATION CLIMATOLOGY 
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下载免费PDF全文 Wu Qikuang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1988,2(4):500-506
From 1983 to 1984,14 solar radiation observation stations which are located in different climate zoneswere chosen for the simultaneous observation of natural illumination with the hourly observation of insola-tion every day.In this paper,according to the data the light equivalent of total solar radiation (LEOTSR)has been given.A multivariate regression equation is employed to calculate the annual and monthly meanvalues of the LEOTSR at 14 observation stations.The variables of the equation include latitude,elevation,surface mean absolute humidity and sunshine duration.The results show that the relative errors are lessthan 10%.The LEOTSR for 464 observation stations was calculated by means of the multivariate regression equationswhich were obtained by the data of 14 observation stations.The total illumination is given by the LEOTSRmultiplying the total radiation.The climatological values of total illumination for each station are alsocalculated according to its LEOTSR and solar radiation.Finally,the climatological charts of total illuminationin China have been drawn. 相似文献
13.
云天地表总辐射和净辐射瞬时值的计算方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为减少计算机时,满足实时预报要求,全球数值预报模式中的辐射计算频率通常设定为三小时。这样处理会大大减少计算量,但也同时导致较大辐射日变化偏差,并影响模式对地面能量平衡,对流及降水的模拟。为改进这一缺陷,我们开发了一种辐射快速计算方案,可用于计算瞬时地面太阳总辐射和净辐射,使到达地面的太阳辐射计算可与模式积分同步进行,从而改善地面太阳辐射日变化模拟。本文介绍云天的计算方法。该方案所用的输入变量均为预报模式或卫星观测所能提供的量。结果表明：该方案既可用于数值预报模式也可利用观测资料独立计算地面太阳辐射。经与美国能源部大气辐射观测资料检验,该方案的精度很高,地面总辐射瞬时值的平均计算误差小于7%。 相似文献
14.
拉萨紫外辐射特征分析及估算公式的建立 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
本文利用2005~2010年的辐射观测资料对拉萨地区紫外辐射的时间变化特征及紫外辐射与总辐射比值的变化特征进行了分析,结果表明,紫外辐射与太阳总辐射的变化规律基本一致,日变化表现为正午大、早晚小;季变化特征是夏季6月最大,冬季1月最小.紫外辐射日累积值6年平均为0.87 MJ·m-2·d-1;紫外辐射有逐年递减的趋势.紫外辐射与总辐射比值也存在着明显日变化,表现为正午大、早晚小的规律;其季节变化也是夏季最大,冬季最小.紫外辐射与总辐射比值6年平均为0.0418;紫外辐射与总辐射比值也呈现逐年递减的趋势.利用2010年大气质量数和晴空指数,建立了适合于拉萨紫外辐射估量的公式,估算值的瞬时值与观测值的平均相对误差最大为8.66%,紫外辐射日累积重构值与观测值平均相对误差仅为5.5%. 相似文献
15.
Analysis of 40 year records of solar radiation data in Shanghai,Nanjing and Hangzhou in Eastern China 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
Summary In this paper, we analyze global, direct and diffuse solar radiation data on a horizontal surface observed at stations in Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou for the period of 1961 to 2000. The data include monthly averages of the daily clearness index (G/G0: the ratio of global to extraterrestrial solar radiation) and the diffuse fraction (D/G: the ratio of diffuse to global solar radiation. The present study has processed and analyzed the data, including variables or statistics of mean, and annual monthly and daily total, the diurnal variation and the frequency of daily totals of global solar radiation. A correlation between daily values of clearness index and diffuse fraction is obtained and recommended correlation equations were calculated. The annual variations and trend of yearly series are analyzed for daily global, direct and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface, as well as for daily clearness index and diffuse fraction in Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou. The results show: 1) the east China is characterized by a decrease in global and direct radiation and a little increase in diffuse radiation and a negative linear relationship was obtained between clearness index and diffuse fraction. 2) The annual variations of global, direct and diffuse radiation for Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou are similar with relative low values of global and direct radiation in June due to the Meiyu period. 3) The acceleration of air pollution and decrease of relative sunshine are the possible causes for the decrease of global and direct radiation. 相似文献
16.
G. C. Hegerl K. Hasselmann U. Cubasch J. F. B. Mitchell E. Roeckner R. Voss J. Waszkewitz 《Climate Dynamics》1997,13(9):613-634
A multi-fingerprint analysis is applied to the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. While a single
fingerprint is optimal for the detection of climate change, further tests of the statistical consistency of the detected climate
change signal with model predictions for different candidate forcing mechanisms require the simultaneous application of several
fingerprints. Model-predicted climate change signals are derived from three anthropogenic global warming simulations for the
period 1880 to 2049 and two simulations forced by estimated changes in solar radiation from 1700 to 1992. In the first global
warming simulation, the forcing is by greenhouse gas only, while in the remaining two simulations the direct influence of
sulfate aerosols is also included. From the climate change signals of the greenhouse gas only and the average of the two greenhouse
gas-plus-aerosol simulations, two optimized fingerprint patterns are derived by weighting the model-predicted climate change
patterns towards low-noise directions. The optimized fingerprint patterns are then applied as a filter to the observed near-surface
temperature trend patterns, yielding several detection variables. The space-time structure of natural climate variability
needed to determine the optimal fingerprint pattern and the resultant signal-to-noise ratio of the detection variable is estimated
from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 136 y. Applying
the combined greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol fingerprint in the same way as the greenhouse gas only fingerprint in a previous
work, the recent 30-y trends (1966–1995) of annual mean near surface temperature are again found to represent a significant
climate change at the 97.5% confidence level. However, using both the greenhouse gas and the combined forcing fingerprints
in a two-pattern analysis, a substantially better agreement between observations and the climate model prediction is found
for the combined forcing simulation. Anticipating that the influence of the aerosol forcing is strongest for longer term temperature
trends in summer, application of the detection and attribution test to the latest observed 50-y trend pattern of summer temperature
yielded statistical consistency with the greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol simulation with respect to both the pattern and amplitude
of the signal. In contrast, the observations are inconsistent with the greenhouse-gas only climate change signal at a 95%
confidence level for all estimates of climate variability. The observed trend 1943–1992 is furthermore inconsistent with a
hypothesized solar radiation change alone at an estimated 90% confidence level. Thus, in contrast to the single pattern analysis,
the two pattern analysis is able to discriminate between different forcing hypotheses in the observed climate change signal.
The results are subject to uncertainties associated with the forcing history, which is poorly known for the solar and aerosol
forcing, the possible omission of other important forcings, and inevitable model errors in the computation of the response
to the forcing. Further uncertainties in the estimated significance levels arise from the use of model internal variability
simulations and relatively short instrumental observations (after subtraction of an estimated greenhouse gas signal) to estimate
the natural climate variability. The resulting confidence limits accordingly vary for different estimates using different
variability data. Despite these uncertainties, however, we consider our results sufficiently robust to have some confidence
in our finding that the observed climate change is consistent with a combined greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing, but inconsistent
with greenhouse gas or solar forcing alone.
Received: 28 April 1996 / Accepted: 27 January 1997 相似文献
17.
18.
Summary
In 1997 the Austrian ultraviolet radiation monitoring network was to built up to measure continuously erythemally-effective
ultraviolet radiation. For this network the necessary measuring sites had to be selected by an objective method. Therefore
a method was used, based on the de-correlation distances, calculated by the daily maximum of the global solar irradiance across
the entire spectrum. For a correlation coefficient of 0.90, de-correlation distances were found to be in the order of 170 km
(East-West) and 40 km (North-South). From this, 7 measuring sites wereselected to derive a total coverage of Austria.
For the visualisation of the measured erythemally-effective solar radiation an optimum interpolation method was used to calculate
the spatial distribution. The topography of Austria was used for height correction. The global solar radiation of 39 stations
is also used to include the spatial distribution of cloud cover and the resulting attenuation of the erythemally-effective
radiation. The combination of these two data sets provides an accuracy estimation of people’s exposure to erythemally-effective
UV radiation within the mountainous country of Austria.
Received September 12, 1999/Revised April 6, 2001 相似文献
19.
Asgeir Sorteberg Vladimir Kattsov John E. Walsh Tatyana Pavlova 《Climate Dynamics》2007,29(2-3):131-156
Ensembles of simulations of the twentieth- and twentyfirst-century climate, performed with 20 coupled models for the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment, provide the basis for an evaluation of the Arctic (70°–90°N) surface energy
budget. While the various observational sources used for validation contain differences among themselves, some model biases
and across-model differences emerge. For all energy budget components in the twentieth-century simulations (the 20C3M simulation),
the across-model variance and the differences from observational estimates are largest in the marginal ice zone (Barents,
Kara, Chukchi Seas). Both downward and upward longwave radiation at the surface are underestimated in winter by many models,
and the ensenmble mean annual net surface energy loss by longwave radiation is 35 W/m2, which is less than for the NCEP and ERA40 reanalyses but in line with some of the satellite estimates. Incoming solar radiation
is overestimated by the models in spring and underestimated in summer and autumn. The ensemble mean annual net surface energy
gain by shortwave radiation is 39 W/m2, which is slightly less than for the observational based estimates, In the twentyfirst-century simulations driven by the
SRES A2 scenario, increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses increase (average for 2080–2100 minus average for 1980–2000
averages) the annual average ensemble mean downward longwave radiation by 30.1 W/m2. This was partly counteracted by a 10.7 W/m2 reduction in downward shortwave radiation. Enhanced sea ice melt and increased surface temperatures increase the annual surface
upward longwave radiation by 27.1 W/m2 and reduce the upward shortwave radiation by 13.2 W/m2, giving an annual net (shortwave plus longwave) surface radiation increase of 5.8 W/m2 , with the maximum changes in summer. The increase in net surface radiation is largely offset by an increased energy loss
of 4.4 W/m2 by the turbulent fluxes. 相似文献
20.
Evaluating regional climate model estimates against site-specific observed data in the UK 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
M. Rivington D. Miller K. B. Matthews G. Russell G. Bellocchi K. Buchan 《Climatic change》2008,88(2):157-185
This paper compares precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature and solar radiation estimates from the Hadley Centre’s
HadRM3 regional climate model (RCM), (50 × 50 km grid cells), with observed data from 15 meteorological station in the UK,
for the period 1960–90. The aim was to investigate how well the HadRM3 is able to represent weather characteristics for a
historical period (hindcast) for which validation data exist. The rationale was to determine if the HadRM3 data contain systematic
errors and to investigate how suitable the data are for use in climate change impact studies at particular locations. Comparing
modelled and observed data helps assess and quantify the uncertainty introduced to climate impact studies. The results show
that the model performs very well for some locations and weather variable combinations, but poorly for others. Maximum temperature
estimations are generally good, but minimum temperature is overestimated and extreme cold events are not represented well.
For precipitation, the model produces too many small events leading to a serious under estimation of the number of dry days
(zero precipitation), whilst also over- or underestimating the mean annual total. Estimates represent well the temporal distribution
of precipitation events. The model systematically over-estimates solar radiation, but does produce good quality estimates
at some locations. It is concluded that the HadRM3 data are unsuitable for detailed (i.e. daily time step simulation model
based) site-specific impacts studies in their current form. However, the close similarity between modelled and observed data
for the historical case raises the potential for using simple adjustment methods and applying these to future projection data. 相似文献