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1.
黔东南近40年水稻安全生长期的变化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用贵州省黔东南16个观测站点1961~2000年的逐日平均气温记录,分析了黔东南1961~2000年水稻安全生长期的变化趋势。结果表明,在近40年中,黔东南水稻安全生长期缩短了7.0天,400m以下高度层缩短了10.6天,400~600m高度层缩短了6.4天,600~800m高度层增加了1.4天,800m以上高度层缩短了4.8天。20世纪80年代是黔东南水稻安全生长期缩短最明显的时期,1980年是黔东南1961~2000年中水稻安全生长期最短的年份。从水稻安全生长期变化趋势的不同高度层差异看,黔东南600~800m高度层上有不明显的延长趋势,600m以下和800m以上高度层上有明显的缩短趋势。 相似文献
2.
利用黔东南16个观测站点1961～2000年的逐日平均气温记录，分析研究了黔东南1961～2000年水稻安全生长期的变化趋势。结果表明，在近40a中，黔东南水稻安全生长期缩短了7．0d，400m以下高度层缩短了10．6d，400～600m高度层缩短了6．4d，600～800m高度层增加了1．4d，800m以上高度层缩短了4．8d。20世纪80年代是黔东南水稻安全生长期缩短最明显的时期，1980年是黔东南1961～2000年中水稻安全生长期最短的年份。从水稻安全生长期变化趋势的不同高度层差异看，黔东南600～800m高度层上有不明显的增加趋势，600m以下和800m以上高度层上有明显的缩短趋势。 相似文献
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基于1961～2006年中国地面观测气温和降水资料，对青藏高原地区以及中国其他6个地区地表气温、降水的变化趋势和突变时间进行了检测和比较。结果发现，(1)地表气温:1961～2006年青藏高原地区年和四季的地表气温都呈增加趋势。年平均地表气温在20世纪80年代中期开始变暖，但显著快速增暖的突变发生在90年代中期，该时间比东北、华北、西北和淮河地区晚，与长江中下游和华南地区接近，不同季节青藏高原地区与其他地区变暖突变时间的差别也各有不同，但所有季节快速变暖突变的时间都比东北地区晚，中国东部陆地地区年和冬季平均地表气温表现出北早南晚的经向差异；(2)降水:1961～2006年青藏高原地区年降水量没有检测到显著的变化趋势，冬春降水量显著增加，而夏季降水有微弱的减少，秋季降水显著减少。降水突变的信号明显比温度突变的信号弱，年降水量和春季降水都没有检测到突变的发生，降水突变方向(增或减)和突变时间在区域与区域之间以及不同季节之间都存在较大差异。由上可见，青藏高原气候的显著快速变化比中国东部长江以北地区有明显的滞后现象，尤其是冬春温度变化，这可能是由于青藏高原地区积雪增加导致的反照率增加和冰川融化吸热对青藏高原变暖的减弱作用所致。 相似文献
5.
近40年中国东北地区平均风速的气候变化特征分 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
采用气候统计分析方法分析了东北地区1961—2000年近40年地面平均风速的气候变率、气候趋势、气候突变等气候变化特征。结果表明，东北地区近40年平均风速呈整体下降趋势，倾向率为-0．23m／（s．10a）。东北地区东北部和西南渤海海边附近风速减弱最明显。个剐测站平均风速变化趋势与全区整体气候趋势不一致，呈现出周期性震荡特征。各季节风述变化均呈减弱趋势，冬、春季风速减弱比夏、秋季明显，冬、春季风速由强转弱年份比夏、秋季早5年左右。东北地区平均风速在1981年前后出现了气候跃变，由偏强转为偏弱。 相似文献
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近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征 总被引：403，自引：14，他引：403
采用国家基准气候站和基本气象站的地面资料,系统地分析了中国大陆地区1951年以来近地表主要气候要素演化的时间和空间特征。结果表明,中国近50 a来年平均地表气温变暖幅度约为1.1℃,增温速率接近0.22℃/(10 a),比全球或半球同期平均增温速率明显偏高。地表气温增暖主要发生在最近的20余年,其季节和空间特征与前人分析结论基本一致。降水量变化趋势对所取时间段和区域范围敏感。1951年以来全国平均降水量变化趋势不明显,但1956年以来略有增加。降水变化的空间特征明显而相对稳定,东北北部、包括长江中下游的东南部地区和西部广大地区降水增加,而华北地区以及东北东南部和西北东部地区降水明显减少。分析还发现,近50a来全国平均的日照时数、平均风速、水面蒸发等气候要素均呈显著下降趋势,但积雪地带的最大积雪深度却有所增加。中国日照时间和水面蒸发量变化的空间特征很相似,减少最明显的地区均发生在华北和华东,新疆次之。影响中国年代以上尺度气候变化的因子错综复杂,人类活动引起的大气中温室气体浓度增高可能在一定程度上影响了中国近50 a来的气候,但考虑到尚存的不确定性,目前仍不能给出明确结论。中国东部大部分地区日照时间和水面蒸发量减少可能均起源于人为排放的气溶胶影响,平均风速减弱也有利于水面蒸发量下降,而在西部地区云量和降水量的变化可能更重要。 相似文献
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近20年中国地区云量变化趋势 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用国际卫星云气候学计划（ISCCP）最新的D2云气候资料集,给出总云量、高云量及中云量在我国地区的分布特征;分别对季节平均和年平均的时间序列进行线性趋势分析,并进行效果检验。结果表明：近20年来中国大部分地区总云量没有显著的变化趋势,但是,在华南地区和西北部分地区的总云量有增加的趋势,青藏高原中部的总云量有所减少;在不同季节,各地总云量、高云量和中云量的变化趋势是不同的。 相似文献
8.
近40年西南地区的气候变化事实 总被引：56，自引：11，他引：56
利用西南地区(云南、贵州、重庆、四川、西藏)1961—2000年139个气象观测站常规地面观测资料年平均值,对西南地区近40年来气候的年际和年代际变化特征进行了分析。揭示了青藏高原、川西高原、云贵高原在20世纪后40年气温上升、降水增加、湿度增大趋势显著,而在四川盆地东北部和西南部的气温则存在明显的下降趋势,表明西南地区气候变化与全球变暖存在非同步性。通过对各气候要素年际和年代际变化序列的分离,得出了西南地区不同气候要素基本都存在明显的年际和年代际变化振荡周期,对这些气候要素存在的突变现象进行了检验,发现气温首先在青藏高原地区开始突变,然后是云贵高原区,最后是四川盆地、贵州东部丘陵区。其他气候要素的突变时间多数也是先从青藏高原开始。由此可见,西南地区气候要素在高海拔地区比低海拔地区突变时间为早,全球气温突变要比西南地区的气温突变要早。 相似文献
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高原东部凝结潜热及其对北半球500hPa高度场和我国汛期降水的影响 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用1961—2005年青藏高原东部雨季凝结潜热序列进一步分析其气候特征及其对后期北半球大气环流和中国汛期降水的影响。结果表明,青藏高原东部雨季各月的凝结潜热均有所增加,其年际变化的差异也较大,其中5月最大,6~7月较稳定,极大年份均出现在气候明显变暖的近10年,极小年份多数出现在气候相对较冷的时期。青藏高原东部凝结潜热具有一定的持续影响力,当其潜热增强时,可引起北半球同纬度带的位势高度场偏低,特别是西太平洋副热带高压偏弱,位置偏南,进而使我国长江流域汛期降水偏多,西北区东部、华北、东北区南部及华南降水偏少。 相似文献
10.
青藏高原东部气候变化及其对长江上游水资源的可能影响 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
王顺久 《高原山地气象研究》2008,28(1):42-46
依据青藏高原东部1961～2003年共43年气象资料以及长江上游宜昌站1890～2000年共111年年径流资料，非参数统计和参数统计方法相结合，分析了青藏高原东部及长江上游水文气象时间序列特性，探讨了青藏高原东部未来气候变化情景下长江上游水资源的可能变化：研究表明：青藏高原东部气温有明显升高的趋势；青藏高原东部降水量有波动性变化，但并不具有显著的变化趋势；长江上游年径流量呈现明显减少的趋势，特别是近10年减幅十分显著。在未来数十年或更长时间，青藏高原东部若出现最不利的气温显著升高且降水大幅减少的“暖-干”气候组合，长江上游水资源将会大幅度减小，若出现气温变化不大而降水增幅较大的“冷-湿”气候时，长江上游水资源则会有较大幅度增加。 相似文献
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Variations and trends of onset, cessation and length of climatic growing season over Xinjiang, NW China 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Feng-qing Jiang Ru-ji Hu Yan-wei Zhang Xue-mei Li Li Tong 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,106(3-4):449-458
In this study, we assess spatial patterns of variations and trends of onset, cessation, and length of growing season using mean air temperature data recorded at 51 stations in Xinjiang province, NW China over the period 1959?C2008. Rank-based Mann?CKendall trend test and linear regression method are used to detect the significance and the magnitude of growing season change, respectively. Regionally, the average onset of the growing season has shifts 5.3?days earlier while the average ending date has moved 7.1?days later, increasing the length of the growing season by an average of 12.6?days. This study reveals a quite different result from previous studies. While the lengthening of the growing season in Xinjiang in the past 50?years is similar to that of previous studies, we find that the lengthening can be mainly attributed to delay of cessation in autumn rather than advance of onset in spring. The extended growing season will have strong implications in regional agricultural production of Xinjiang. 相似文献
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东北地区作物生长季降水异常特征分析 总被引：8，自引：3，他引：8
采用东北地区52个测站1951-2000年4-9月降水量资料，对东北地区作物生长季降水异常进行了诊断分析。结果表明：东北地区生长季降水存在减少趋势，旱灾略多于涝灾，主要存在3-7、12和30a左右的周期变化；可划分为7个降水异常区，其中相邻的3个区（东北中部、南部和东部的大范围地区）有变旱倾向，辽西地区的旱涝灾害最频繁。根据降水减少的趋势，提倡发展旱作农业和节水农业。 相似文献
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应用近50年我国234个测站的日平均温度资料，研究了最高(低)日平均温度、各种界限温度日数、生长季节长度及有效积温的变化趋势。结果表明:近50年，夏季最高日平均温度以上升为主，新疆南部和黄淮的部分地区为下降趋势；最低日平均温度北方大部地区有较明显的升温趋势，新疆南部及长江流域则有下降趋势；在冬季，无论是最高日平均温度还是最低日平均温度的变化趋势均以上升为主，北方尤为明显；日平均温度高于30℃的炎热日数近50年来基本上没有什么变化，但日平均温度为20~30℃的温暖日数却有增加。低于5℃的冷日日数基本上也是减少的。日平均温度低于-10℃的严寒日数，在40o~45 o N的新疆、内蒙古西部、东北中南部地区减少得更为明显。除西南东部等少数地方外，我国大部分地区近50年来生长季节延长，有效积温增加。 相似文献
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The timing, length, and thermal intensity of the climatic growing season in China show statistically significant changes over the period of 1955 to 2000. Nationally, the average start of the growing season has shifted 4.6–5.5 days earlier while the average end has moved 1.8–3.7 days later, increasing the length of the growing season by 6.9–8.7 days depending on the base temperature chosen. The thermal intensity of the growing season has increased by 74.9–196.8 growing degree-days, depending on the base temperature selected. The spatial characteristics of the change in the timing and length of the growing season differ from the geographical pattern of change in temperatures over this period; but the spatial characteristics of change in growing degree-days does resemble the pattern for temperatures, with higher rates in northern regions. Nationally, two distinct regimes are evident over time: an initial period where growing season indicators fluctuate near a base period average, and a second period of rapidly increasing growing season length and thermal intensity. Growing degree-days are highly correlated with March-to-November mean air temperatures in all climatic regions of China; the length of the growing season is likewise highly correlated with March-to-November mean air temperatures except in east, southeast and southwest China at base temperature of 0°C and southeast China at base temperature of 5°C. The growing season start date appears to have the greater influence on the length of the growing season. In China, warmer growing seasons are also likely to be longer growing seasons. 相似文献
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Zhengfang Wu Haibo Du Dongsheng Zhao Ming Li Xiangjun Meng Shengwei Zong 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,108(3-4):495-503
Daily global solar radiation is an important input required in most crop models. In the present study, a sunshine-based model, the ?ngstr?m–Prescott model, is employed to estimate daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface during the growing season in Northeast China. Data from six control groups are used. The controls include the entire sequence, precipitation days, and non-precipitation days both during the growing season and year-round. Estimations are validated by comparing the calculated values with the corresponding measured values. The results indicate that estimating daily global solar radiation during the growing season using data only from the growing season is better than using year-round data. Classifying days with respect to precipitation and non-precipitation is also unnecessary. The performance on estimating daily global solar radiation during the growing season using the entire data in growing season performs best. A sunshine-based equation is obtained using our method to estimate growing season daily radiation for all meteorological stations in Northeast China. The approved approach is expected to be beneficial to crop models and other agricultural purposes. 相似文献
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A number of studies have reported an extension of the thermal growing season in response to the warming climate during recent decades. However, the magnitude of extension depends heavily on the threshold temperature used: for a given area, a small change in the threshold temperature results in significant differences in the calculated thermal growing season. Here, we specified the threshold temperature for determining the thermal growing season of local vegetation across 326 meteorological stations in temperate China by using vegetation phenology based on satellite imagery. We examined changes in the start, end, and length of the thermal growing season from 1960 to 2009. The threshold temperatures for determining the start and end increased strongly with increasing mean annual temperature. Averaged across temperate China, the start of the thermal growing season advanced by 8.4?days and the end was delayed by 5.7?days, resulting in a 14.1-day extension from 1960 to 2009. The thermal growing season was intensively prolonged (by 0.59?day/year) since the mid-1980s owing to accelerated warming during this period. This extension was similar to that determined by a spatially fixed threshold temperature of 5?°C, but the spatial patterns differed, owing to differences in the threshold temperature and to intra-annual heterogeneity in climate warming. This study highlights the importance of specifying the temperature threshold for local vegetation when assessing the influences of climate change on thermal growing season, and provides a method for determining the threshold temperature from satellite-derived vegetation phenology. 相似文献
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Changes of Accumulated Temperature, Growing Season and Precipitation in the North China Plain from 1961 to 2009 
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下载免费PDF全文 Using the high-quality observed meteorological data, changes of the thermal conditions and precipitation over the North China Plain from 1961 to 2009 were examined. Trends of accumulated temperature and negative temperature, growing season duration, as well as seasonal and annual rainfalls at 48 stations were analyzed. The results show that the accumulated temperature increased significantly by 348.5℃ day due to global warming during 1961-2009 while the absolute accumulated negative temperature decreased apparently by 175.3℃ day. The start of growing season displayed a significant negative trend of -14.3 days during 1961- 2009, but the end of growing season delayed insignificantly by 6.7 days. As a result, the length of growing season increased by 21.0 days. The annual and autumn rainfalls decreased slightly while summer rainfall and summer rainy days decreased significantly. In contrast, spring rainfall increased slightly without significant trends. All the results indicate that the thermal conditions were improved to benefit the crop growth over the North China Plain during 1961-2009, and the decreasing annual and summer rainfalls had no direct negative impact on the crop growth. But the decreasing summer rainfall was likely to influence the water resources in North China, especially the underground water, reservoir water, as well as river runoff, which would have influenced the irrigation of agriculture. 相似文献
18.
Man-yu Dong Yuan Jiang Da-yong Zhang Zheng-fang Wu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,111(3-4):693-701
Daily mean air temperatures from 81 meteorological stations in Northeast China were analyzed for the spatiotemporal change of the climatic growing season during the period 1960–2009. Our results showed that latitude strongly influenced the spatial patterns of the mean start (GSS), end (GSE), and length (GSL) of the growing season. For the area studied, a significant increasing trend in GSL during 1960–2009 was detected at a significance level of 0.01, especially after the early 1980s. The area-average GSL has extended 13.3 days during the last 50 years, mainly due to the advanced GSS evident in the spring (7.9 days). The variations of GSS and GSE were closely correlated with the monthly mean temperature (T mean) of April and October, respectively, while GSL was closely related to the monthly minimum temperatures (T min) of spring (March to April) and autumn (September to October). The distributions of the trends in growing season parameters (GSS, GSE, and GSL) showed great spatial variability over Northeast China. Significant relationships between altitude and the trend rates of the GSS and GSL were detected, while geographic parameters had little direct effect on the change in GSE. This extended growing season may provide favorable conditions for agriculture and forest, and improve their potential production. 相似文献
19.
Using the high-quality observed meteorological data,changes of the thermal conditions and precipitation over the North China Plain from 1961 to 2009 were examined.Trends of accumulated temperature and negative temperature,growing season duration,as well as seasonal and annual rainfalls at 48 stations were analyzed.The results show that the accumulated temperature increased significantly by 348.5℃ day due to global warming during 1961 2009 while the absolute accumulated negative temperature decreased apparently by 175.3℃ day.The start of growing season displayed a significant negative trend of-14.3 days during 1961-2009,but the end of growing season delayed insignificantly by 6.7 days.As a result,the length of growing sea.son increased by 21.0 days.The annual and autumn rainfalls decreased slightly while summer rainfall and summer rainy days decreased significantly.In contrast,spring rainfall increased slightly without significant trends.All the results indicate that the thermal conditions were improved to benefit the crop growth over the North China Plain during 1961-2009,and the decreasing annual and summer rainfalls had no direct negative impact on the crop growth.But the decreasing summer rainfall was likely to influence the water resources in North China,especially the underground water,reservoir water,as well as river runoff,which would have influenced the irrigation of agriculture. 相似文献
20.
Recent studies of trends in Midwestern precipitation show marked increases over the last 50 years of the 20th Century, and most climate models project that future rainfall in the Corn Belt will be increased further. During five years, 1988–1991 and 1994, field tests were conducted on agricultural test plots in central Illinois, an area typical of the Corn Belt, to discern how corn yields reacted to varying levels of added rainfall (+10%, +25%, and +40%) during the growing season. The best treatment over the five years was a 40% rain increase, with an average yield increase of 9%. Its yield increase was up to 34% in a hot-dry year, but below that of natural rainfall in a wet year as were the yields of the other lesser increases. The average yield changes from the three treatments were not statistically significantly different. Major interannual yield differences were found in the yields for each rain treatment, reflecting how rain timing and temperatures also have major effects on yields. A 40% summer rain increase has little influence if natural rains do not occur in the high stress period of mid summer. The plots results show that only small average increases in corn yields occur from growing season rain additions in the 10% to 40% range, except in dry years. Weather-crop yield regression models incorporating the same rain increases predict greater yield increases than found in these field tests. This suggests that future yields projected for a wetter climate using yield-weather models may be over-estimated. The plot sample size is small but conditions sampled in the five years represented 43% of all past 97 growing seasons in central Illinois and extremely good and bad weather years, which resulted in large between-year yield differences. Hence, the experimental results provide useful information about how increased rainfall may affect future corn yields, especially since the sample included three of the five types of dry growing seasons found in the area's climate since 1900. 相似文献