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1.
分析了本世纪发生的２１次火山喷发个例与齐齐哈尔市温度变化的关系，得出很有意义的结果，火山喷发后，当地夏季降温最明显，其影响滞后１０个月以上；降温幅度与火山喷发的强度和距离呈正相关，火山喷发后，生长季积温减少，易出现氏温冷害。 相似文献
2.
本文的数值实验结果表明:火山喷发主要造成全球性降温，火山所在的纬度和喷发的季节都可以对喷发后全球温度变化的形式产生影响。需要特别注意的是，火山喷发，尤其是北半球高纬春夏季节的喷发，能产生很强的冷夏作用，可能会对全球天气、气候的变化产生深远的影响。 相似文献
3.
近50年火山喷发和太阳活动对我国气候影响的研究 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8
利用特征向量分析与时序叠加分析和谱分析相结合的方法，分析了近50a来我国地面气温和降水场中火山喷发和太阳活动的气候信号，强烈的火山喷发导致全国大部分地区降温，喷发1a多以后降温最明显，并能持续约半年。除这个主信号以外，青藏高原、东南沿海和东北地区都可能出现较为复杂的温度变化，温度变化与太阳活动之间的联系更多地反映在二者的振荡关系上。在降水场中的火山信号较弱，表现为火山喷发后的秋冬季节南方地区降水偏多。在青藏高原积雪和深层地温的变化中，没有发现火山和太阳活动信号。 相似文献
4.
近40年中国高空温度变化的初步分析 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
为了了解高空气温的长期变化趋势,利用中国28个高空探空站1961—2000年间地面至高空10hPa的温度资料进行了统计分析,结果表明:从地面到高空200hPa最冷在1月,最热在7月;但是在最冷的100hPa层以上,其气温年变化位相相反,即1月最热,8月最冷;50hPa层以上温度的年变化不大。近40余年来,年平均气温变化趋势自地面至700hPa,绝大部分地区温度上升,尤其是地面增温最为显著,而西南地区有降温趋势;对流层上层至50hPa的平流层的温度在降低,尤其是50hPa降温最为显著。北半球的较强火山喷发对中国32°N以南的低纬与32°N以北的中高纬地区高空温度的影响不同。火山喷发后,低纬地区平流层第1~26个月温度均有不同程度增温,其中在第7~8个月增温最明显;在对流层以下,第6~11个月、第16~27个月出现2次明显降温时段,第1次降温最明显。中高纬地区平流层在第1~16个月、第20~29个月出现2段增温,第1段增温时间跨度长、强度大,第17~19个月出现了降温。在对流层以下第2~5个月、第14~18个月、第21~30个月出现3次明显降温时段,第3次降温持续时间长,整体降温强度较大。 相似文献
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6.
利用NCEP/NCAR日平均再分析资料及中国753个测站日降水资料,采用带通滤波、小波功率谱、合成分析等方法研究了青藏高原春季500 hPa纬向风季节内振荡特征及其与我国南方降水的关系.结果表明,青藏高原春季500 hPa纬向风存在明显的10~30 d季节内振荡特征,该低频振荡主要表现为自西向东和自北向南的传播特征.通过位相合成分析发现,这种季节内振荡对我国南方春季降水有重要影响.当高原500 hPa纬向风季节内振荡处于2~3位相时(即高原上盛行西风异常),对应于我国南方地区春季降水明显偏多;反之,当季节内振荡处于相反位相时(6~7位相,即高原上盛行东风异常),对应于我国南方春季降水明显偏少.南方春季最大正(负)异常降水的出现滞后于高原季节内振荡的峰值(谷值)位相,其滞后时间为2 d.分析结果还表明,高原上空纬向风的季节内振荡活动主要通过中纬度大尺度环流异常对我国南方春季降水产生影响. 相似文献
7.
分海洋和陆地两种情况来讨论IAP/LASG全球海-陆-气耦合系统模式（GOAL）四个版本的结果,并与观测资料进行对比分析。一些重要的大气变量包括表面空气温度,海平面气压和降水率用来评估GOALS模式模拟当代气候和气候变率的能力。总的来说,GOALS模式的四个版本都能够合理地再现观测到的平均气候态和季节变化的主要特征。同时评估也揭示了模式的一些缺陷。可以清楚地看到模拟的全球平均海平面气压的主要误差是在陆地上。陆地上表面空气温度模拟偏高主要是由于陆面过程的影响。值得注意的是降水率模拟偏低主要是在海洋上,而中高纬的陆地降水在北半球冬天却比观测偏高。 通过模式不同版本之间的相互比较研究,可以发现模式中太阳辐射日变化物理过程的引入明显地改善了表面空气温度的模拟,尤其是在中低纬度的陆地上。太阳辐射日变化的引入对热带陆地的降水和中高纬度的冬季降水也有较大改进。而且,由于使用了逐日通量距平交换方案（DFA）,GOALS模式新版本模拟的海洋上的温度变率在中低纬度有了改善。 比较观测和模拟的年平均表面空气温度的标准差,可以发现GOALS模式四个版本都低估了海洋和陆地上的温度变率,文中还对影响观测和模拟温度变率差异的可能原因进行了探讨。 相似文献
8.
IAP/LASG全球海-陆-气耦合系统模式的纬向平均大气气候态分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
分海洋和陆地两种情况来讨论IAP／LASG全球海－陆－气耦合系统模式（GOALS）四个版本的结果，并与观测资料进行对比分析，一些重要的大气变量包括表面空气温度，海平面气压和降水率用来评估GOALS模式模拟当代气候和气候变率的能力，总的来说，GOALS模式的四个版本都能够合理地再现观测到的平均气候态和季节变化的主要特征，同时评估也揭示了模式的一些缺陷，可以清楚地看到模拟的全球平均海平面气压的主要误差是在陆地上，陆地上表面空气温度模拟偏高主要是由于陆南过程的影响，值得注意的是降水率模拟偏低主要是在海洋上，而中高纬的陆地降水在北半球冬天却比观测偏高。通过模式不同版本之间的相互比较研究，可以发现模式中太阳辐射日变化物理过程的引入明显地改善了表面空气温度的模拟，尤其是在中低纬度的陆地上，太阳辐射日变化的引入对热带陆地的降水和中高纬度的冬季降水也有较大改进。而且，由于使用了逐日通量距平交换方案（DFA），GOALS模式新版本模拟的海洋上的温度变率在中低纬度有了改善。比较观测和模拟的年平均表面空气温度的标准度，可以发现GOALS模式四个版本都低估了海洋和陆地上的温度变率，中还对影响观测和模拟温度变率差异的可能原因进行了探讨。 相似文献
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利用区域气候模式对东亚地区人为硫酸盐的直接辐射强迫及其温度响应进行了数值研究.结果表明:(1)人为硫酸盐直接辐射强迫具有明显的季节变化和地理分布特征,辐射强迫的这种变化特征不仅强烈地依赖于硫酸盐柱含量的季节变化和地理分布,而且取决于云量季节变化和地理分布.(2)就年平均而言,由于硫酸盐辐射强迫的影响,模拟区域内大部分地区普遍降温.降温比较明显的区域位于110°E以东、40°N以南的中国大陆地区,超过-0.1℃.其中华北平原和长江中游的湖南、湖北形成两个降温大值中心,幅度超过-0.2℃.(3)地面温度响应呈现出明显的区域季节变化特征.冬春季节,温度响应与辐射强迫之间满足较好的对应关系;夏秋季节,二者呈现出复杂的非线性关系. 相似文献
10.
一个气候系统模式对小冰期外强迫变化的平衡态响应 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
本文利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_gl, 通过设定小冰期的太阳辐射变化, 模拟了小冰期的气候平衡态, 讨论了小冰期气候变化的机理。数值试验结果表明, 由太阳辐照度变化和火山活动共同作用造成的太阳辐射减少是小冰期气候的重要成因, 模拟的小冰期表层气温变化分布与重建资料在全球大多数地区较为一致。就全球平均情况而言, 小冰期的年平均气温较之1860年偏冷0.15℃, 较之20世纪平均情况偏冷0.6℃左右。小冰期温度变化存在显著的地域和季节特征, 表现为北半球降温幅度大于南半球, 高纬地区降温幅度大于低纬地区, 夏季的降温幅度大于冬季。东亚地区小冰期温度较之1860年和20世纪分别偏冷0.3℃和0.6℃。小冰期的降水异常中心位于低纬地区, 主要表现为赤道中东太平洋降水负异常和赤道中西太平洋降水正异常, 以及位于热带印度洋的降水偶极子型。除欧洲和北美外, 全球其他地区陆地降水均减少。东亚地区小冰期夏季降水的变化最为显著, 较之1860年, 华北、 东北地区降水增加, 而长江流域以南降水则减少; 较之20世纪, 东部降水异常表现出华北地区偏多、长江流域偏少、华南地区偏多的“三极型” 分布特征。 相似文献
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根据平流层火山气溶胶传播规律研究,该文构建了反映火山喷发强度、平流层火山气溶胶相对浓度、火山气溶胶扩散速率和反映火山爆发地理位置并且按e指数规律衰减的火山活动指数(VEI)时空分布函数,进一步建立了北半球中高纬度、南北半球低纬度和南半球中高纬度3个1945-2008年逐月火山活动指数时间序列。根据3个逐月火山活动指数时间序列分别分析了北半球中高纬度、南北半球低纬度和南半球中高纬度火山活动对于相应纬度带地面气温的影响。研究表明:无论南北半球还是热带,火山活动强时地面气温下降,火山活动弱时地面气温上升,并且地面气温对于火山活动的响应明显滞后。 相似文献
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The explosive volcanic eruption signal in northern hemisphere continental temperature records 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Raymond S. Bradley 《Climatic change》1988,12(3):221-243
Several catalogs of explosive volcanic eruptions are reviewed and their limitations assessed. A new, homogeneous set of high quality gridded temperature data for continental regions of the northern hemisphere is then examined in relation to the timing of major explosive eruptions. Several of the largest eruptions are associated with significant drops in summer and fall temperatures, whereas pronounced negative anomalies in winter and spring temperatures are generally unrelated to volcanic activity. The effect of explosive eruptions on temperature decreases latitudinally away from the location of the eruption. High latitude eruptions have the greatest impact on high and mid latitudes; low latitude eruptions mainly influence low and mid latitudes. Temperature depressions following major eruptions are very abrupt but short-lived (1 to 3 months) decreasing in magnitude over the course of the subsequent 1 to 3 years. Generally any signal is indistinguishable from noise after 12 months but a small recurrent drop in temperature is evident about 12 to 24 months after the initial anomaly. Considering all known eruptions which injected material into the stratosphere over the last 100 years (except the 5 largest eruptions) a significant temperature depression is observed over the continents only in the month immediately following the eruption. There is no evidence that large eruptions over the last 100 years have had a significant effect on low frequency temperature changes. 相似文献
13.
The interannual variability of global temperature and precipitation during the last millennium is analyzed using the results of ten coupled climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. It is found that large temperature(precipitation) variability is most dominant at high latitudes(tropical monsoon regions), and the seasonal magnitudes are greater than the annual mean. Significant multi-decadal-scale changes exist throughout the whole period for the zonal mean of both temperature and precipitation variability, while their long-term trends are indistinctive. The volcanic forcings correlate well with the temperature variability at midlatitudes, indicating possible leading drivers for the interannual time scale climate change. 相似文献
14.
Meng ZUO Tianjun ZHOU Wenmin MAN Xiaolong CHEN Jian LIU Fei LIU Chaochao GAO 《大气科学进展》2022,39(12):1986-1993
An undersea volcano at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) near the South Pacific island nation of Tonga, erupted violently on 15 January 2022. Potential climate impact of the HTHH volcanic eruption is of great concern to the public; here, we intend to size up the impact of the HTHH eruption from a historical perspective. The influence of historical volcanic eruptions on the global climate are firstly reviewed, which are thought to have contributed to decreased surface temperature, increased stratospheric temperature, suppressed global water cycle, weakened monsoon circulation and El Ni?o-like sea surface temperature. Our understanding of the impacts of past volcanic eruptions on global-scale climate provides potential implication to evaluate the impact of the HTHH eruption. Based on historical simulations, we estimate that the current HTHH eruption with an intensity of 0.4 Tg SO2 injection will decrease the global mean surface temperature by only 0.004°C in the first year after eruption, which is within the amplitude of internal variability at the interannual time scale and thus not strong enough to have significant impacts on the global climate. 相似文献
15.
The atmospheric circulation over the mid-high latitudes in Asia has an important influence on regional climate, yet its long-term variation has not been fully explored. The main task of this study is to reveal the interdecadal variation features of summer atmospheric circulation over Asian mid-high latitudes in recent decades. The results show that the atmospheric circulation over mid-high latitudes of Asia has stronger interdecadal fluctuations than that over low latitudes and one significant change center appears near Lake Baikal. It is found that the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal has a significant interdecadal change around 1996 and a deep anomalous anticyclonic circulation has been controlling this region since then, which contributes to the significant increase in the surface temperature near Lake Baikal since 1997 and makes the region a remarkable warming center in Asia in recent 40 years. During 1997-2015, the pattern of less precipitation in the north and more precipitation in the south of east China is closely related to the anomalous anticyclonic circulation near Lake Baikal. Especially, this anomalous circulation near Lake Baikal has been found to contribute to the obvious interdecadal decrease of the precipitation in northeast China and north China near 1997. The sea surface temperature (SST) of northwestern Atlantic is an important influence factor to the interdecadal change in the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal around 1996. 相似文献
16.
《热带气象学报(英文版)》2020,(3)
The atmospheric circulation over the mid-high latitudes in Asia has an important influence on regional climate, yet its long-term variation has not been fully explored. The main task of this study is to reveal the interdecadal variation features of summer atmospheric circulation over Asian mid-high latitudes in recent decades. The results show that the atmospheric circulation over mid-high latitudes of Asia has stronger interdecadal fluctuations than that over low latitudes and one significant change center appears near Lake Baikal. It is found that the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal has a significant interdecadal change around 1996 and a deep anomalous anticyclonic circulation has been controlling this region since then, which contributes to the significant increase in the surface temperature near Lake Baikal since 1997 and makes the region a remarkable warming center in Asia in recent 40 years. During 1997-2015, the pattern of less precipitation in the north and more precipitation in the south of east China is closely related to the anomalous anticyclonic circulation near Lake Baikal. Especially, this anomalous circulation near Lake Baikal has been found to contribute to the obvious interdecadal decrease of the precipitation in northeast China and north China near1997. The sea surface temperature(SST) of northwestern Atlantic is an important influence factor to the interdecadal change in the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal around 1996. 相似文献
17.
两种再分析资料平流层温度场的对比分析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
在Lorenz环流分解基础上,比较了全球平流层低层ECMWF和NCEP/NCAR两种再分析资料月平均温度场的差异。结果表明：（1）纬向的平均温度无论DJF季度还是JJA季度100 hPa,30°S～30°N纬带都是冷中心;在该冷纬带ECMWF资料温度均值显著低于NCEP资料,ECWMF资料的年际方差显著小于NCEP资料。（2）30 hPa以上NCEP资料的定常波比较杂乱,在中纬大陆上出现与事实不符的高低中心,而ECMWF资料反映的气温定常波则比较合理。（3）ECMWF资料在100 hPa和10 hPa上气温异常未能充分地反映近50 a来3次强的火山喷发引起的平流层增温。 相似文献
18.
Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-to-noise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the inter-model consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation. 相似文献