共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 187 毫秒
1.
In recent years,the global warming and its influences on people and social economy have received increasing attention from international communities.Determining the current trend of global temperature variation has become one of the critical issues in climate change research.Obviously,it is rather important to develop new climate change detection technology in order to identify new characteristics of the global warming.This review introduces the latest advances and past achievements on the climate change... 相似文献
2.
A Review of Decadal／Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in China 总被引：22，自引：4，他引：18
Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability,the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate. 相似文献
3.
The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional ＂yield impact of meteorological factor （YIMF）＂ or ＂yield impact of weather factor＂ to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change （YICC）, which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields （PUAY） of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook. 相似文献
4.
气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
丁一汇 任国玉 石广玉 Gong Peng Zheng Xunhua Zhai Panmao Zhang De'er Zhao Zongci Wang Shaowu Wang Huijun Luo Yong Chen Deliang Gao Xuejie Dai Xiaosu 《气候变化研究进展》2007,3(Z1):1-5
The climate change in China shows a considerable similarity to the global change, though there still exist some significant differences between them. In the context of the global warming, the annual mean surface air temperature in the country as a whole has significantly increased for the past 50 years and 100 years, with the range of temperature increase slightly greater than that in the globe. The change in precipitation trends for the last 50 and 100 years was not significant, but since 1956 it has assumed a weak increasing trend. The frequency and intensity of main extreme weather and climate events have also undergone a significant change. The researches show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration in China has continuously increased and the sum of positive radiative forcings produced by greenhouse gases is probably responsible for the country-wide climate warming for the past 100 years, especially for the past 50 years. The projections of climate change for the 21st century using global and regional climate models indicate that, in the future 20-100 years, the surface air temperature will continue to increase and the annual precipitation also has an increasing trend for most parts of the country. 相似文献
5.
《大气科学进展》1993,(2)
On the basis of existing data and research results the changes of life supporting environment in China in the history are briefly described. The differences between regional climate variations and climate jump are the very important features and phenomena in estimating the trend of environmental evolution in the future. Finally, it is pointed out that sensitive zone is an ideal place to study global change. Many evidences show that the response of environmental elements in the sensitive zones to global change events is very obvious, so that much attention should be paid to the study of sensitive zone. 相似文献
6.
Drought is one of the most serious and extensive natural hazards in the world. Subject to monsoon climate variability, China is particularly influenced by drought hazards, especially meteorological drought. Based on a comprehensive understanding of the current status of international drought research, this paper systematically reviews the history and achievements of drought research in China since the founding of the People's Republic of China, from four main perspectives: characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of historical and recent drought events, drought formation mechanism and change trend, drought hazard risk, and the particular flash drought. The progress and problems of drought research in China are analyzed and future prospects are proposed, with emphasis on the multi-factor synergetic effect for drought formation; the effect of land–atmosphere interaction; identification, monitoring, and prediction of flash drought; categorization of drought and characteristics among various types of drought; the agricultural drought development; drought response to climate warming; and assessment of drought hazard risks. It is suggested that strengthening scientific experimental research on drought in China is imperative. The present review is conducive to strategic planning of drought research and application, and may facilitate further development of drought research in China. 相似文献
7.
An aridity trend in china and its abrupt feature in association with the global warming 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Fu Congbin 《大气科学进展》1993,10(1):11-20
A distinct aridity tread in China in last 100 years is presented by applying a linear fitting to both the climate re-cords and the hydrological records, which is supported by evidence of environmental changes and seems to be associ-ated with a global warming trend during this period.The Mann Kendall Rank statistic test reveals a very interesting feature that the climate of China entered into a dry regime abruptly in about l920’s, which synchronized with the rapid warming of the global temperature at almost the same time.According to an analysis of the meridional profile of observed global zonal mean precipitation anomalies during the peak period of global warming (1930-1940), the drought occurred in whole middle latitude zone (25oN-55oN) of the Northern Hemisphere, where the most part of China is located in. Although this pattern is in good agreement with the latitude distribution of the difference of zonal mean rates of precipitation between 4 × CO2 and 1 × CO2 simu-lated by climate model (Manabe and Wetherald, 1983), more studies are required to understand the linkage between the aridity trend in China and the greenhouse effect.The EOF analysis of the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure for the season of June to August shows an ab-rupt change of the time coefficient of its first eigenvector from positive to negative in mid-lP^s, indicating an enhancement of the subtropical high over Southeast Asia and the western Pacific after that time. This is an atmos-pheric circulation pattern that is favorable to the development of dry climate in China. 相似文献
8.
正The dramatic changes in the Arctic climate system during recent decades are one of the most prominent features of global climate change.Two most striking and fundamental characteristics are the amplified near-surface warming at a rate twice the global average since the mid 20th century(e.g.,Blunden and Arndt,2012;Huang et al.,2017),and the rapid 相似文献
9.
There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least. 相似文献
10.
Substantial progress has been made over the past three decades since the Monsoon Experiments(MONEX) of 1978–79. Here, we review these achievements by highlighting four breakthroughs in monsoon research:(1) The identification of the coupled ocean–land–atmosphere nature of the monsoon in the process of the annual cycle of solar heating;(2) new understanding of the changes in the driving forces of monsoon systems, with anthropogenic factors(climate effects of increased greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions) playing an important role in the regulation of monsoons;(3) detection of the interdecadal- and centennial-scale variability of monsoon systems, and its attribution to the combined impact of global warming and natural(especially oceanic) effects; and(4) the emerging concept of the global monsoon and its long-term variation under the impact of global climate change. All the observational and model-derived evidence demonstrates that the monsoon system, as an important component of the global climate system, has already changed and will continue to change in the future. This picture of an evolving monsoon system poses great challenges for near-term prediction and long-term projection. 相似文献
11.
在气候系统五大圈层中,冰冻圈对气候变化高度敏感,近几十年来气候变暖已引起全球冰川、冻土、积雪和海冰等冰冻圈要素加速退缩,进而对区域水资源、生态环境、社会经济发展和人类福祉产生了深远影响。2018年10月,IPCC在韩国仁川公布了《全球1.5℃增暖特别报告》（SR1.5）。报告较系统地呈现了关于全球1.5℃温升目标的基本科学认知,并探讨了可持续发展及消除贫困目标下加强全球响应的路径。在冰冻圈相关内容方面,报告呈现了有关全球1.5℃和2℃温升下冰冻圈（主要是海冰和多年冻土）变化及其对大气圈、水圈、生物圈、岩石圈和人类圈影响的一些亮点结论,还关注了全球1.5℃和2℃温升下冰冻圈相关的气候变化热点（区）和地球系统临界因素。报告指出,随着温度不断升高,冰冻圈及其相关要素和热点（区）面临的风险将不断增加,但将全球温升控制在1.5℃而不是2℃或更高时的风险将大大降低。 相似文献
12.
气候变化检测与诊断技术的若干新进展 总被引：15，自引：3，他引：12
近年来,全球气候变暖及其对世界经济的影响已经引起了社会各界的关注和重视,判断当前全球的温度变化趋势,已经成为研究气候变化的一个至关重要的问题。进一步发展新的气候变化检测技术以适应全球增暖的新特征则显得尤为重要。因此,结合(1)气候突变和转折检测技术、(2)观测数据信息的分离和提取、(3)气候系统内在复杂性、(4)气候系统动力学结构特征的识别、(5)极端气候事件定义及其检测等方面的气候变化检测技术研究,分别介绍了中国近期气候变化检测技术的研究进展及部分研究成果,主要侧重于新检测技术和方法的介绍。最后,就当前气候变化检测技术方面的一些焦点和难点问题做了简单的讨论。 相似文献
13.
气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的环境问题之一,气候变化可能对生态系统和社会经济产生灾难性影响,农业是受气候变化影响最直接的脆弱行业。因此,气候变化对农业生产的影响研究一直是气候变化研究领域中的热点问题之一。该文系统介绍了有关全球气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究的现状与进展,包括气候变化对农业影响的研究方法、大气中温室气体浓度增加对农作物的影响试验、气候变化对农业气候资源的影响、气候变化对农作物生长发育和产量的影响、气候变化对农业种植制度和品种布局的影响、气候变化对农作物气候生产潜力和气候资源利用率的影响等,指出当前在研究气候变化对农业影响评估中存在的问题,提出了今后应加强对气候变化情景和预测模式不确定性的研究、气候变化对农业影响的方法研究。此外,气候变化背景下极端天气气候事件对农业生产的影响以及气候变化对农业病虫害的影响研究等仍较薄弱,有待进一步加强和深入。 相似文献
14.
在气候变化影响的诸环境系统中，冰冻圈首当其冲。冰冻圈不仅对全球变暖的敏感性最高、变化最快、最明显，而且人类对它的变化很难采取有效的防范措施，因此，它被认为是最容蝗受到气候变化损害的脆弱环，尤其是山地冰川，其进退这变化就是对气候变化的响应，正因如此，对冰川及其与气候变化的关系研究越来越为人们所关注。 相似文献
15.
气候变化对林火动态的影响一直是国内外研究的热点,从数据获取方式、研究内容、研究方法和研究结论等角度出发对此领域的进展进行了综述。当前以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化已对林火动态产生重要影响,全球大部分地区林火发生频率增大、林火强度增强;在预期继续变暖的气候背景下,未来林火情势会更加严峻;但由于气候变化的区域性差异,有些地区的林火动态变化不明显或呈现下降趋势。对预期气候情景下研究结论的不确定性进行了分析,并讨论了我国与国外在此领域的研究差距及其原因。最后,对未来的研究方向进行了展望。 相似文献
16.
WANG Futang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2001,15(4):498-508
Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will strengthen the naturalgreenhouse effect,which could lead to global climate warming and more other changes.China is alargely agricultural country with a large size of population and the relative shortages of farminglands and water resources,thus increasing the importance of climate warming for national economydevelopment.Therefore,Chinese government and scientists have paid great attention to theimpact-assessment of climate warming on national economy in China,especially during the past 10years.This presentation will briefly describe some major issues of climate warming impact researchon national vegetation,agriculture,forest,water resources,energy use and regional sea level forChina,etc.As a result,all climate change scenarios derived by GCMs suggest a substantial change in thecharacteristic natural vegetation types.It is also shown that comparing with the distributionsimulated under the normal time period 1951—1980 as the present climate,by 2050 large changesin cropping systems would occur almost everywhere in China.Climate warming would lead toincrease cropping diversification and multiplication.Unfortunately,the possible net balancebetween precipitation and evapotranspiration would be negative and it would lead to reduce thegrain production in China significantly due to enhanced moisture stress in soil.The most evidentinfluence of climate warming on water resources would happen in Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe Basin andthe water supply-demand deficit would be substantially enhanced in this area.And also,a warmerclimate for China will alter the energy requirement for domestic heating and cooling,that is,reduce energy use for heating in northern China and increase energy consumption for cooling insouthern China. 相似文献
17.
气候变化科学方面的几个最新认知 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告主要从以下几个方面的进展提升了我们对气候系统变化、气候变化原因以及预估未来气候系统变化等方面的认知,对过去气候变化及其与人类活动的关系有了更加清晰、可靠的认识。综合多重证据评估指出,全球气候正经历着前所未有的变化;包括极端事件在内的归因进展已把人类活动对气候系统影响的认识从大气圈扩展到水圈、冰冻圈和生物圈,进一步强化了人类活动影响全球和区域气候的认识;有关区域气候变化信息的内容更加丰富,与各行业和敏感地区的气候变化影响联系更加紧密,使这些信息能更好地为气候变化风险评估和气候变化区域适应提供支持;气候模式和约束预估方法的发展以及对气候敏感度认识的深化,减少了未来不同排放情景下全球地表温度（Global Surface Temperature,GST)、海平面上升和海洋热含量的变化预估的不确定性。这份最新报告对我国提升气候变化研究水平和防灾减灾应对能力具有十分重要的指导意义。 相似文献
18.
2019年9月,IPCC正式发布《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》（SROCC）,这是IPCC首次以高山地区与极区冰冻圈和海洋为主题的评估报告。报告全面评估气候变化背景下海洋和冰冻圈变化及其广泛影响与风险,其核心结论包括：气候系统变暖背景下高山地区和极区的冰冻圈普遍退缩,未来冰冻圈将继续消融,高山地区和极区将面临更高的灾害风险;20世纪70年代以来全球海洋持续增暖,未来海洋将继续变暖、加速酸化,影响海洋生物多样性并危及海洋生态系统服务功能和人类社会;近几十年全球平均海平面加速上升,未来数百年海平面仍将持续上升,极端海面事件频发将加剧沿海地区社会-生态系统的灾害风险。报告强调,采取及时、积极、协调和持久的适应与减缓行动,是有效应对海洋和冰冻圈变化,实现气候恢复力发展路径和可持续发展目标的关键所在。本研究认为,需要高度重视海洋和冰冻圈在气候系统变化中的长期和不可逆影响,强化应对气候变化紧迫性认识;高度重视我国冰冻圈和沿海地区面临的气候风险,强化适应能力建设;推动我国牵头的国际大科学计划,强化跨学科、跨领域协同创新,持续提升我国在相关领域的国际影响力和科技支撑能力。 相似文献