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After the open bidding and specialist appraisal, the project is undertaken jointly by the Institute of Plant Protection of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, the Institute of Plant Protection of the Sichuan Province Academy of Agricultural Science, the Chinese Agricultural University, the Research Institute of Forest Protection of the Forestry Academy of China, the Chinese Forest University, the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and the Research Institute of Agrometeorology of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science. The project (Project No: 2001BA509B, including 15 subprojects), is organized  相似文献   

3.
Summary The paper discusses annual to decadal climate variability and change in the European Alps by utilizing the procedure of synoptic downscaling, i.e. it investigates the influence of global to continental scale synoptic structures and processes on the regional climate of the Alps. The European Alps lie to the southeast and under the right exit zone of the southwest-northeast oriented axis of the polar front jet over the North Atlantic ocean, in a transition zone between the Azores high and Icelandic low, between oceanic and continental and between Mediterranean and North Atlantic climates. Together with complex topographically induced phenomena like lee cyclogenesis, orographic precipitation, strong downslope winds and thermotopographical circulation systems, this transitional position makes climate studies in the Alps even more interesting. Only a minor correlation can be observed between global climate variability and Alpine climate. In contrast, the Alpine climate is strongly related to processes over the North Atlantic ocean and its sea ice system (e.g. it has a high correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the dynamics and position of the Icelandic low), an area with a rather low climate prediction potential.Since the early 1970's (or just after the Great Salinity Anomaly in the North Atlantic Ocean) the intensification of the wintertime westerly jet over the North Atlantic area led to a noticeable northwest-southeast mass transport in the exit area of the jet over Central Europe, leading to pressure and temperature rises and an increase in the amount of precipitation. There is a question over whether this phenomenon is a consequence of natural climate variability or the beginning of an anthropogenic climate change.With 16 Figures  相似文献   

4.
Wavelet analysis is used to study the interannual and interdecadal variations of rainfall in China and atmospheric circulation factors, including the key atmospheric oscillations, W, C, E patterns and subtropical high. Regression analysis and correlation analysis are both used to study the relationship of atmospheric circulation factors and China rainfall on different time scale and spatial scale. The results are as follows: (1) The variations of atmospheric circulation and rainfall in China are characterized by interannual and interdecadal scales. The variations of atmospheric circulation and rainfall are composed of interannual and interdecadal variations. It is necessary to separate those two time scales when climate changes and forecast are studied. (2) The variations of China rainfall are due to the interaction of multi-factors rather than single factors. The marked factors which influence the interannual and interdecadal variations are various. Subtropical high is one of the marked factors which influence interannual variations of rainfall, while AO, NAO, and NPO are one of the marked factors which influence interdecadal variations of rainfall. (3) The longer the time scale is, and the larger the spatial scale is, and the more remarkable the relationships between atmospheric circulation and rainfall are.  相似文献   

5.
This study reveals the complex nature of the connection between Eurasian snow and the following summer season＇s monsoon rainfall by using four different indicators of snow conditions and correlating each of them to summer monsoon rainfall. Using 46 years of historical records of mean winter snow depth, maximum snow depth, and snow starting dates, and 27 years of snow area coverage from remote sensing observations over Eurasia, the authors found diverse correlation patterns between snow conditions and the following warm season＇s rainfall over South and Southeast Asia. Some of the results contradict the well-known inverse relationships between snow and the summer monsoon. This study provides an easy comparison of results in that it shows the connections between Eurasian snow and monsoon rainfall by using different Eurasian snow indicators based on the best available historical records without discrimination of regional variations in snow conditions.  相似文献   

6.
1 Physical and Chemical Structural Characteristics of Urban ABLObtained preliminarily the atmospheric dynamic structure of the urban ABL: Urban heat island and urban wind, the zero-plane displacement and roughness of urban building blocks, the distribution and dynamic and thermal impacts of urban fog. In the aspect of city-scale simulation research, the effect of the topography around the outskirts of Beijing on the urban wind field and the effect of buildings on the urban atmospheric circulation are studied. The possible influencing mechanisms of the U-shaped mountains to the west and north of Beijing on the daily variation of the urban wind field, and the formation, transport and cumulation of urban pollutants are analyzed and some distribution charts are obtained.  相似文献   

7.
Development of monsoon climate prediction through integrated research efforts to improve our understanding of monsoon variability and predictability is a primary goal of the Asian Monsoon Years （200-2011） and International Monsoon Study under the leadership of the World Climate Research Programme. The present paper reviews recent progress in Asian monsoon research focusing on （1） understanding and modeling of the monsoon variability, （2） determining the sources and limits of predictability, and （3） assessing the current status of climate prediction, with emphasis on the weekly to interannual time scales. Particular attention is paid to identify scientific issues and thrust areas, as well as potential directions to move forward in an attempt to stimulate future research to advance our understanding of monsoon climate dynamics and improve our capability to forecast Asian monsoon climate variation.  相似文献   

8.
Extreme weather events and their consequential impacts have been a key feature of the climate in recent years in many parts of the world, with many partly attributed to ongoing global-scale warming. The past year, 2022, has been no exception,with further records being broken. The year was marked by unprecedented heatwaves and droughts with highly unusual spatial extent, duration and intensity, with one measure indicating an aggregated and overall intensity of extreme heat events worldwide not se...  相似文献   

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In recent decades, the typical El Nio events with the warmest SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific have become less common, and a different of El Nio with the warmest SSTs in the central Pacific, which is flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs, has become more fre-quent. The more recent type of El Nio was referred to as central Pacific El Nio, warm pool El Nio, or dateline El Nio, or the El Nio Modoki. Central Pacific El Nio links to a different tropical-to-extratropical teleconnection and exerts different impacts on climate, and several classification approaches have been proposed. In this study, a new classification approach is proposed, which is based on the linear combination (sum or difference) of the two leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), and the typical El Ni o index (TENI) and the central El Nio index (CENI) are able to be derived by projecting the observed SSTA onto these combinations. This classification not only reflects the characteristics of non-orthogonality between the two types of events but also yields one period peaking at approximate two to seven years. In particular, this classification can distin-guish the different impacts of the two types of events on rainfall in the following summer in East China. The typical El Nio events tend to induce intensified rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, whereas the central Pacific El Nio tends to induce intensified rainfall in the Huaihe River valley. Thus, the present approach may be appropriate for studying the impact of different types of El Nio on the East Asian climate.  相似文献   

12.
本文详细分析了厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜与重庆夏季典型涝/旱年之间的不对称关系。结果表明:(1)厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜对重庆次年夏季降水有不对称影响。厄尔尼诺年的大气环流异常与重庆夏季典型涝年的特征一致;然而,拉尼娜年的大气环流异常与重庆夏季典型旱年的特征不一致。(2)从冬季到次年夏季,厄尔尼诺对重庆夏季典型涝年的影响主要是通过热带印度洋海温的‘接力效应’维持的。  相似文献   

13.
ENSO多样性研究进展   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
El Ni?o是热带中东太平洋异常偏暖的现象,发展过程具有显著的季节锁相特征。近年来,新形态事件更频繁发生引起了科学界广泛关注。学者们根据空间分布形态或爆发时间将ENSO事件分为两类,虽然选取标准不同,分类结果却有诸多相似点:中太平洋(Dateline、Modoki、CP、WP及SU型)El Ni?o事件发展至成熟时,正SSTA中心位于赤道太平洋中部;东太平洋(传统、EP、CT及SP型)El Ni?o发展至成熟时,正SSTA中心位于赤道东太平洋,低层西风异常更强,向东传输的距离也更远。研究结果显示,东太平洋El Ni?o比中太平洋El Ni?o持续时间更长,强度也更强;两类事件对全球气候的影响模态有很大的差异。近几十年,中太平洋El Ni?o出现频率有所增加,但其原因尚未清楚。关于两类事件生成发展和位相转换的动力原因,目前科学界普遍认为东太平洋El Ni?o是一个海盆尺度的海气耦合过程,其生消过程与温跃层的变化有紧密联系,但对中太平洋El Ni?o的动力机制尚未有统一的认识。   相似文献   

14.
The inverse relationship between the warm phase of the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall(ISMR) is well established. Yet, some El Ni?o events that occur in the early months of the year(boreal spring) transform into a neutral phase before the start of summer, whereas others begin in the boreal summer and persist in a positive phase throughout the summer monsoon season. This study investigates the distinct influences of an exhausted spring El Ni?o(springtime)...  相似文献   

15.
Cloud-radiative forcing(CRF) at the top of the atmosphere(TOA) over the western Pacific warm pool(WP) shows unique characteristics in response to El Ni?o events. In this region, the responses of CRF to El Ni?o events have been a useful metric for evaluating climate models. Satellite data are used to analyze the CRF anomalies to El Ni?o events simulated by the new and old versions of the Climate System Model of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM), which has participated in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP). Here, simulations for super El Ni?o years, El Ni?o years, and normal years are compared with observations. The results show that the mean values of both longwave CRF(LWCRF) and shortwave CRF(SWCRF) in CAMS-CSM are weaker than the observations for each category of El Ni?o events. Compared with the old version of CAMS-CSM, the decrease in LWCRF during El Ni?o events is well simulated by the new version of CAMS-CSM. However, both new and old models cannot reproduce the anomalous SWCRF in El Ni?o events. The biases in the CRF response to El Ni?o events are attributed to the biases in the cloud vertical structure because of a weaker crash of the Walker circulation in CAMS-CSM. Due to the modification of the conversion rate from cloud droplets to raindrops in the cumulus convection scheme, the new version of CAMS-CSM has better CRF skills in normal years, but biases in El Ni?o events still exist in the new version. Improving the response of the Walker circulation to El Ni?o events is key to higher skills in simulating the cloud radiative responses.  相似文献   

16.
The different impacts of El Ni?o during peak phases with and without a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (P-IOD) on the Northwest Pacific circulation were studied. The authors focused on the Northwest Pacific circulation features in the mature phase of El Ni?o from September to February of the next year. Composite maps and simulations demonstrate that the atmospheric circulation under the impact of El Ni?o with and without P-IOD exhibits large differences in temporal evolution and intensity. In single El Ni?o (SE) years without a P-IOD, an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation around the Philippines (PSAC) is instigated by the single El Ni?o-induced Indonesian subsidence. However, during the years when El Ni?o and a P-IOD matured simultaneously, a much greater anomalous subsidence over the western Pacific and the Maritime Continent occurred. The PSAC tends to occur earlier, is much stronger and has a longer lifetime than that during SE. More importantly, the PSAC shows a characteristic of an eastward movement from the southern South China Sea (SCS) to the Philippine Sea. This characteristic does not appear during SE. These patterns imply that a positive IOD event tends to exert a prominent influence on the PSAC during El Ni?o events and there is a combined impact of El Ni?o and P-IOD on the development of the PSAC.  相似文献   

17.
利用1979—2017年美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)重建海温逐月资料(ERSST V5)、气候预报中心(CPC)的Ni?o3.4指数、NCEP/NCAR再分析风场资料以及CMAP降水资料,将1979—2017年Ni?o3.4指数超过2 ℃的El Ni?o事件,定义为超强El Ni?o事件。根据超强El Ni?o事件的定义,从近40年(1979—2017年)选取出三个超强El Ni?o事件(1982—1983年、1997—1998年和2015—2016年)。首先运用海温距平资料,分析超强El Ni?o事件的多样性特征,然后根据这三个超强El Ni?o事件发生年与次年的夏季降水距平,讨论东亚夏季风降水对超强El Ni?o事件多样性的响应差异。研究表明,即使是同为超强的El Ni?o事件,由于其不同的分布特征,东亚夏季风降水的响应场表现出明显的不同。在此基础上,从环流异常、850 hPa风场异常以及副高的变化等方面讨论了这两者之间的联系。   相似文献   

18.
一种新的El Niño海气耦合指数   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  
利用1980～2010 年月平均Hadley中心海表温度、美国全球海洋资料同化系统(GODAS)海洋温度和NCEP/NCAR 大气环流再分析资料,通过对2 个海洋要素(海表温度SST、上层热含量HC)和5 个大气要素(海平面气压SLP、850 hPa 风场、200 hPa 速度势和对外长波辐射OLR)的多变量经验正交函数展开(multivariate EOF,简称MV-EOF)探讨了热带太平洋的主要海气耦合特征。结果表明,MV-EOF 分析的前两个耦合模态分别很好地对应了传统型El Ni?o 和El Ni?o Modoki 的海气耦合特征:传统型El Ni?o 期间,伴随着赤道中东太平洋SST 的异常增温,HC、SLP、200 hPa 速度势等要素总体呈东西反相的“跷跷板”变化,低层850 hPa 赤道中太平洋出现较强西风距平,西北太平洋上空为反气旋性异常环流;El Ni?o Modoki 期间,SST 持续增温和HC 正异常中心均显著西移至中太平洋,低层SLP 和高空200 hPa 速度势均呈现纬向三极型异常分布,低层异常强西风向西移至暖池东部,西北太平洋上空呈现气旋性异常环流。两类El Ni?o 的海气耦合特征存在显著差异,较优的El Ni?o 指数应不仅可以客观描述和区分El Ni?o 现象本身,更要紧密联系两类事件所产生的大气响应。以往定量表征El Ni?o 年际变化的指标大多立足于SST 或SLP,本文选取HC 作为研究指标,定义了一组新的El Ni?o 指数HCEI 和HCEMI。较以往基于SST 的El Ni?o 指数,HCEI 和HCEMI 不仅能更清楚地表征和区分两类El Ni?o(如1993 年的传统型El Ni?o 和2006 年的El Ni?o Modoki),而且能更好地反映和区分两类El Ni?o 与大气间的海气耦合特征,为El Ni?o的监测和短期气候预测工作提供了一个新工具。  相似文献   

19.
This study reveals a significant positive connection between autumn non-tropical-cyclone heavy rainfall on Hainan Island and the intensity of Eastern Pacific (EP) El Ni?o events. That is, the amount of rainfall in super EP El Ni?o years is more than that in normal EP El Ni?o years. Comparing EP El Ni?o years of different intensities, the cooler sea surface temperature in the northwestern Pacific during super EP El Ni?o years stimulates a negative surface latent heat flux (LHF) anomaly and abnormal anticyclonic circulation at 850 hPa. Under these conditions, an abnormal zonal vertical circulation develops in the northern South China Sea once a positive LHF anomaly and abnormal cyclonic circulation (ACC) at 850 hPa occur in the Beibu Gulf. The abnormal zonal vertical circulation further strengthens the ascending motion over Hainan Island, as the critical factor that leads to excessive rainfall. Further analysis shows that the positive LHF anomaly, which can be attributed to the increased latent heat transfer which resulted from the increased surface wind speed, is an important trigger for the ACC. However, the ACC is also the supplier of favorable moisture conditions because it intensifies vapor convergence over Hainan Island and meridionally transports moisture from the South China Sea to northeastern Hainan Island, thereby generating heavy rainfall. This paper emphasizes that the impact of El Ni?o events, especially super El Ni?o events, on rainfall over Hainan Island cannot be ignored, even if the traditional view is that frequent rainfall occurs mainly in La Ni?a years.  相似文献   

20.
The El Ni?o phenomenon is the Earth??s strongest climatic fluctuation on an interannual timescale and has a quasi-global impact, although originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A very strong El Ni?o is recognized to cause extreme dryness and wetness in different parts of the world. We show that all the eight well-documented influenza pandemics, starting from the first certain one documented in ad 1580, originated in China and in Russia, a few years after the occurrence of a very strong or after a prolonged strong/moderate El Ni?o event. At present, the next El Ni?o will probably occur at the beginning of 2013 (Mazzarella et al. Theor Appl Climatol 100:23?C27, 2010), and this forecast may suggest to be well prepared to take appropriate precautionary epidemiological measures.  相似文献   

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