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1.
This study evaluates the convectively coupled equatorial waves in ten coupled general circulation models (GCMs) in the twentieth century experiment from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme. The antisymmetric bands in all GCMs are weaker than in observations, and the mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) wave seems to be a mixture of the equatorial Rossby (ER) and tropical depression-type (TD-type) waves rather than a mixture of the ER and inertiogravity waves found in observations. The simulated TD-type wave is more organized than in observations with a quasilinear wavenumber–frequency relationship. In most GCMs, the two observed activity centers of the MRG and TD-type waves over the southern Indian Ocean and the southwestern Pacific cannot be separated; only one wave activity center is found over the Maritime Continent. The observed northwestward propagation of the TD-type wave over the western North Pacific is also not well simulated in the GCMs. The simulated active season of the MRG and TD-type waves over the northern hemisphere during the boreal summer and fall is much shorter than in observations. The models from CCSR utilizing the Pan and Randall scheme with the convection suppression simulate the realistic Kelvin wave activity with the maximum activity near the equator, while the wave activities filtered for the Kelvin wave in the other GCMs are similar to the extratropical Rossby wave with the maximum activity at higher latitudes. Likewise, only these two models produce a realistic seasonal cycle of the Kelvin wave activity.  相似文献   

2.
This study associates tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) with the equatorial wave transition from an interannual viewpoint, revealing that the tropical cyclogenesis mean location may be modulated by a longitudinal shift in the transition of Mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves to off-equatorial tropical depression (TD) disturbances from year to year. To a large extent, the wave transition is attributable to the monsoon trough in response to the thermal state of the warm pool (WP) over the WNP. During the cold state years in the WP, the basic flow confluence region associated with the monsoon trough penetrates eastward, leading to an eastward shift in the location of the wave transition. Such an environment, in which wave accumulation and energy conversion occur, is favorable for tropical cyclogenesis; as a result, the averaged cyclogenesis location moves eastward. The condition is reserved during the warm years in the WP, resulting in the prominent westward-retreating mean TC formation. Citation: Chen, G. H., and R. H. Huang, 2008: Role of equatorial wave transitions in tropical cyclogenesis over the western north Pacific, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 1, 64-68  相似文献   

3.
一种对资源不稳定性敏感的EASY-backfill算法   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
利用合成技术对1995—2006年冬季（11月—次年2月）生成在西北太平洋上的34个热带气旋（tropicalcyclone,TC）个例进行分析,研究冬季西北太平洋TC生成的大尺度环流特征及其生成机制,结果表明：冬季TC生成的大尺度环流特征型为东风波西传型;北半球冬季对流层低层出现的跨赤道气旋对是冬季北半球TC形成的重要特征;太平洋中部赤道混合Rossby重力波西北传,与强对流中心重合,性质转为＂热带低压型扰动＂,为冬季热带气旋生成提供扰动源。对合成TC初始场的涡动扰动动能的收支分析表明,涡动有效位能和正压不稳定转换为TC形成提供了能量,这两种能量分别与积云对流加热和水平不均匀气流有关。正压不稳定能量转换为动能主要位于对流层中下层,而扰动有效位能的转换主要位于对流层中上层。低层热带东风波动从平均气流中获得正压不稳定能量,并与强积云对流耦合,热力和动力共同作用下形成TC。  相似文献   

4.
Convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves(ERW)modulate tropical cyclone activities over tropical oceans.This study presents a survey of the statistical relationship between intraseasonal ERWs and tropical cyclone genesis(TCG)over major global TC basins using four-decade-long outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)and TC best-track datasets.Intraseasonal ERWs are identified from the OLR anomalies using an empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis method without imposing equatorial symmetry.We find that westward-propagating ERWs are most significant in four tropical ocean basins over the summer hemisphere and that ERWs exhibit similar northeast-southwest(southeast-northwest)tilted phase lines in the northern(southern)hemisphere,with an appreciable poleward advance of wave energy in most TC basins.The EOF-based ERW indices quantitatively show that ERWs significantly modulate TC genesis.The convectively active(suppressed)phases of ERWs coincide with increased(reduced)TCG occurrences.The TCG modulation by ERWs achieves the maximum where the ERWs propagate through the climatological TCG hotspots.As a result,the total number of TCG occurrences in the TC basins varies significantly according to the ERW phase.The ERW-TCG relationship is significant over the northwestern Pacific Ocean,northeastern Pacific Ocean,and the northern Indian Ocean during the northern summer seasons.In the southern summer season,the ERW-TCG relationship is significant over the southern Indian Ocean,Indonesian-Australia basin,and the southwestern Pacific Ocean.However,ERW activities are weak in the main TC development region of the Atlantic Ocean;and the impact on Atlantic TCG appears to be insignificant.  相似文献   

5.
This paper describes the effects of convective adjustment time scale (τ) on the simulation of tropical climate. The NCAR-Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) has been used for this study. In the default configuration of the model, the prescribed value of τ, a characteristic time scale with which convective available potential energy (CAPE) is removed at an exponential rate by convection, is assumed to be 1?h. However, some recent observational findings suggest that, it is larger by around one order of magnitude. In order to investigate the dependence of tropical climate simulation to this time scale, we conducted two simulations, one with a time scale of 1?h (CTRL) and another with 8?h (EXPT), and examined the differences in simulated climate. For this, we analyzed both the mean as well as transient features, viz., seasonal mean quantities, equatorial waves, and meridional migration of convective disturbances. The spatial distributions of seasonal mean precipitation are found to be better in EXPT. The spatial correlation coefficients of CTRL and EXPT with the observations are 0.79 and 0.83, respectively, for northern hemisphere winter. Similarly, for northern hemisphere summer, the values are 0.67 and 0.79, respectively. In addition, there is also an improvement in the simulation of equatorial waves, specifically, the Kelvin waves, Madden–Julian oscillation, and n?=?1 equatorial Rossby waves become more realistic in EXPT. The characteristics of meridional migration of convective activity over tropics also become more reasonable in EXPT. Thus, it is found that there is a clear improvement in some of the key aspects of the simulated tropical climate with the revised convective adjustment time scale.  相似文献   

6.
Convectively coupled equatorial Rossby (ER) waves display maximum varability over the northern hemisphere during boreal summer and over the southern hemisphere during boreal winter. It suggests that the seasonal variation of ER waves is significantly affected by the annual cycle of basic state. However, which specific environmental factor plays a determining role remains obscure. This study investigates the background influence on the seasonal variation of ER wave by employing an intermediate anomaly atmospheric model. By prescribing boreal summer/winter seasonal mean state as the model’s basic state, the authors found that the model is able to simulate the trapping of the ER wave purtrubation over the northern/southern hemisphere as in observation. Further sensitivity experiments suggest that the moisture distribution plays a major role in modulating the ER wave structure while the mosoonal flows play a minor role.  相似文献   

7.
Most coupled general circulation models (GCMs) perform poorly in the tropical Atlantic in terms of climatological seasonal cycle and interannual variability. The reasons for this poor performance are investigated in a suite of sensitivity experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled GCM. The experiments show that a significant portion of the equatorial SST biases in the model is due to weaker than observed equatorial easterlies during boreal spring. Due to these weak easterlies, the tilt of the equatorial thermocline is reduced, with shoaling in the west and deepening in the east. The erroneously deep thermocline in the east prevents cold tongue formation in the following season despite vigorous upwelling, thus inhibiting the Bjerknes feedback. It is further shown that the surface wind errors are due, in part, to deficient precipitation over equatorial South America and excessive precipitation over equatorial Africa, which already exist in the uncoupled atmospheric GCM. Additional tests indicate that the precipitation biases are highly sensitive to land surface conditions such as albedo and soil moisture. This suggests that improving the representation of land surface processes in GCMs offers a way of improving their performance in the tropical Atlantic. The weaker than observed equatorial easterlies also contribute remotely, via equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves, to the severe warm SST biases along the southwest African coast. However, the strength of the subtropical anticyclone and along-shore winds also play an important role.  相似文献   

8.
Mid-latitude eddies are an important component of the climatic system due to their role in transporting heat, moisture and momentum from the tropics to the poles, and also for the precipitation associated with their fronts, especially in winter. We study northern hemisphere storm-tracks at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and their influence on precipitation using ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). The difference with PMIP1 results in terms of sea-surface temperature forcing, fundamental for storm-track dynamics, is large, especially in the eastern North Atlantic where sea-ice extends less to the south in OAGCMs compared to atmospheric-only GCMs. Our analyses of the physics of the eddies are based on the equations of eddy energetics. All models simulate a consistent southeastward shift of the North Pacific storm-track in winter, related to a similar displacement of the jet stream, partly forced by the eddies themselves. Precipitation anomalies are consistent with storm-track changes, with a southeastward displacement of the North Pacific precipitation pattern. The common features of North Atlantic changes in the LGM simulations consist of a thinning of the storm-track in its western part and an amplification of synoptic activity to the southeast, in the region between the Azores Islands and the Iberian Peninsula, which reflects on precipitation. This southeastward extension is related to a similar displacement of the jet, partly forced by the eddies. In the western North Atlantic, the synoptic activity anomalies are at first order related to baroclinic generation term anomalies, but the mean-flow baroclinicity increase due to the presence of the Laurentide ice-sheet is partly balanced by a loss of eddy efficiency to convert energy from the mean flow. Moisture availability in this region is greatly reduced due to more advection of dry polar air by stationary waves, leading to less synoptic-scale latent heat release and hence less precipitation also. In terms of seasonality, the stormy season is shifted later in the year by a few days to a month depending on the season and the model considered. This shift does not directly reflect on the first-order seasonal cycle of precipitation, which also depends on other mechanisms, especially in summer.  相似文献   

9.
This study investigates the influence of the Madden Julian oscillations (MJO) and equatorial Rossby (ER) waves on tropical cyclone (TC) formation in western Pacific during June 2004 through one control and three wave experiments for each of the five TCs. The control experiment reasonably simulates the formation of five TCs. In the corresponding wave experiments, the MJO, ER waves, and both the MJO and ER waves are removed, from the initial fields and lateral boundary conditions, respectively. The differences of simulated TC intensity between the control and corresponding wave experiments provide a quantitative assessment of the relative contribution of each wave to TC formation.In the wave experiments with the MJO removed, three of the five TCs are weakened, and the remaining two (TC A and B) grow stronger due to an altered background flow that steered the TCs into more favorable oceanic regions. For the wave experiments with ER waves removed, three of the five simulated TCs become weaker (TC A, C, and E). TC D develops into a tropical storm because of a dominant influence from active synoptic-scale disturbance. The results indicate that both the MJO and ER waves have an important modulating effect on TC formation. In addition to the influence from the MJO, ER and synoptic-scale waves, local processes may dominate in TC formation; for the example of TC B, none of the waves positively influence the formation in significant ways. The present modeling approach provides a quantitative assessment of the relative contribution of tropical wave disturbances to TC formation.  相似文献   

10.
热带季节内振荡时空特征的诊断研究   总被引：24，自引：4，他引：24  
董敏  张兴强  何金海 《气象学报》2004,62(6):821-830
文中应用谱分析、小波分析等方法及较长时段的资料进一步总结了热带季节内振荡的一些基本气候特征。热带季节内振荡主要活跃在 3个地区 ,最强的是西太平洋地区 ,其次是印度洋地区 ,第三是东太平洋沿岸的赤道以北地区。热带季节内振荡有明显的季节变化 ,西太平洋地区和印度洋地区的季节内振荡 1a中有两次极大值 ,冬季主要活跃在南半球 (10°S附近 ) ,而夏季则活跃在北半球 (10°N附近 ) ,春、秋季热带季节内振荡则明显减弱。东赤道太平洋北侧的季节内振荡只在夏季活跃 ,而冬季则很弱 ,且不随季节而南北移动。对于大气的大尺度要素 ,例如u风场 ,热带季节内振荡的能量主要集中在 1波。而对于像降水这样尺度较小的要素 ,热带季节内振荡的能量则相对较分散 ,尽管它仍然在 1波有最大的能量 ,但 2～ 4波也具有较接近的能量。热带季节内振荡以东移的波动为主。热带季节内振荡存在着年际甚至更长时间的变化。 2 0世纪 70年代末期季节内振荡的幅度有一明显的突变。  相似文献   

11.
During the northern winter the eastern Pacific is characterized by upper level westerly flow extending from the equator into the midlatitudes of both hemispheres. Theoretical and simple modeling studies suggest that such a region should favor the penetration of Rossby waves into the tropics from higher latitudes. Observational results by Kiladis and Weickmann using 200 mb data indicate that Rossby waves do indeed propagate freely into the tropical eastern Pacific during the northern winter from the Asian jet exit region. They also confirmed that cross-equatorial dispersion of energy from the Northern into the Southern Hemisphere occurs frequently. The present study examines these interactions in climatological runs of two GFDL GCMs. The northern wintertime mean states of these models are characterized by a rather realistically simulated upper level westerly regime in the tropical Pacific. Despite the relative weakness of the Asian jet and wave activity with respect to observations, propagation of Rossby waves into the tropics is present in both models, and these waves are strongly positively tilted as seen in the observations. A momentum budget of the zonal wind and E vector diagnostics over the tropical Pacific indicate that these transients are an important component of the momentum balance of the equatorial westerlies in both the observations and in the models.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil  相似文献   

12.
ENSO-phase dependent TD and MRG wave activity in the western North Pacific   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The three-dimensional structure and evolution characteristics of tropical depression (TD) and mixed Rossby-gravity wave (MRG) type disturbances in the tropical western North Pacific during El Niño and La Niña summers are investigated based on observational and reanalysis data. A clear MRG-to-TD transition was observed during El Niño summers while such a transition is unclear during La Niña summers. The vertical structure of the TD-MRG waves appears equivalent barotropic during El Niño but becomes tilted eastward with height during La Niña. The diagnosis of barotropic energy conversion shows that both the rotational and divergent components of the background flow change associated with E1 Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are responsible for energy conversion from the mean flow to the TD-MRG perturbations. A further examination of the pure MRG mode shows that its intensity does not vary between El Niño and La Niña while its phase speed does. A faster (slower) westward propagation speed during La Niña (El Niña) is attributed to enhanced (reduced) mean easterlies in the western equatorial Pacific. The heating associated with the MRG wave appears more anti-symmetric during La Niña than during El Niño. In contrast to the MRG waves, the amplitude of the TD waves depends greatly on the ENSO phase. The enhanced (suppressed) TD disturbances during El Niño (La Niña) is attributed to greater (less) barotropic energy conversion associated with the background flow change. The vertical structure of the TD waves appears quasi-barotropic in the geopotential height field but baroclinic in the divergence field.  相似文献   

13.
This study investigates the mean kinematic characteristics of the tropical Atlantic easterly disturbances in January-March(JFM),April-June(AMJ),July-September(JAS)and October-December(OND)from 1968-1998.For each season,the preferential tracks of these disturbances in the 3-10-day band periods were computed and spatialized,as well as their associated wavelength,velocity and main period,which lies between 3-5 days and between 6-9 days depending on the track and the season. Two main tracks are highlighted over the Atlantic Ocean.During OND and JFM these two tracks are well separated and located in each hemisphere around 15°S and 12.5°N.From AMJ to JAS these tracks migrate northward;in JAS,they merge into one over the northern tropical Atlantic along 17.5°N.The associated wavelength fields exhibit a meridional gradient,with large wavelengths(greater than 4000 km) around the equator,between 5°N and 5°S,and smaller wavelengths outside of this latitude band(between 2500-3500 km).The phase speed is also found to exhibit poleward decreasing values from 12-6 m s-1. Over the north Atlantic track,6-9-day disturbances were found to occur from January to May and approximately from October to December.From June to September,the 3-5-day waves dominate the synoptic activity.Over the south Atlantic track,between May and August the synoptic variability is mainly explained by the 3-5-day disturbances but from January to April and from September to December both 3-5-day waves and 6-9-day waves can occur.  相似文献   

14.
A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.  相似文献   

15.
The coupled climate model EC-Earth2 is used to investigate the impact of direct radiative effects of aerosols on stationary waves in the northern hemisphere wintertime circulation. The direct effect of aerosols is simulated by introducing prescribed mixing ratios of different aerosol compounds representing pre-industrial and present-day conditions, no indirect effects are included. In the EC-Earth2 results, the surface temperature response is uncorrelated with the highly asymmetric aerosol radiative forcing pattern. Instead, the anomalous extratropical temperature field bears a strong resemblance to the aerosol-induced changes in the stationary-wave pattern. It is demonstrated that the main features of the wave pattern of EC-Earth2 can be replicated by a linear, baroclinic model forced with latent heat changes corresponding to the anomalous convective precipitation generated by EC-Earth2. The tropical latent heat release is an effective means of generating stationary wave trains that propagate into the extratropics. Hence, the results of the present study indicate that aerosol-induced convective precipitation anomalies govern the extratropical wave-field changes, and that the far-field temperature response dominates over local effects of aerosol radiative forcing.  相似文献   

16.
We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.  相似文献   

17.
TBB资料揭示的热带大气低频振荡周期的年变化特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
１９８０－１９９２年ＧＭＳＴＢＢ格点资料，分析了１３年平均的ＴＢＢ功率谱随时间的变化，讨论了低频振荡周期的年变化特征及其可能的成因。结果表明，热带大气低频振荡周期有很明显的年变化。北半球热速睦区比赤道附近和南半球热带地区的周期变化幅度更大。总体上，冬季比夏，秋季低频振荡周期更长。  相似文献   

18.
Using a suite of lateral boundary conditions, we investigate the impact of domain size and boundary conditions on the Atlantic tropical cyclone and african easterly Wave activity simulated by a regional climate model. Irrespective of boundary conditions, simulations closest to observed climatology are obtained using a domain covering both the entire tropical Atlantic and northern African region. There is a clear degradation when the high-resolution model domain is diminished to cover only part of the African continent or only the tropical Atlantic. This is found to be the result of biases in the boundary data, which for the smaller domains, have a large impact on TC activity. In this series of simulations, the large-scale Atlantic atmospheric environment appears to be the primary control on simulated TC activity. Weaker wave activity is usually accompanied by a shift in cyclogenesis location, from the MDR to the subtropics. All ERA40-driven integrations manage to capture the observed interannual variability and to reproduce most of the upward trend in tropical cyclone activity observed during that period. When driven by low-resolution global climate model (GCM) integrations, the regional climate model captures interannual variability (albeit with lower correlation coefficients) only if tropical cyclones form in sufficient numbers in the main development region. However, all GCM-driven integrations fail to capture the upward trend in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. In most integrations, variations in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appear uncorrelated with variations in African easterly wave activity.  相似文献   

19.
使用国家气候中心大气环流模式BCC_AGCM2.1的30年模拟试验资料,对平流层纬向环流场、高空急流、极涡及爆发性增温过程进行了数值模拟研究,并使用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）和美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）的再分析资料对模式输出结果进行了对比、分析。结果表明：（1） 在观测海温、二氧化碳、气溶胶等外强迫地驱动下,BCC模式能够很好地再现出与再分析资料一致的平流层纬向平均风场、温度场的分布特征和季节变化过程;模拟得到的温度廓线和高空急流与再分析资料的主要差别出现在南、北半球冬季的中高纬度地区;模拟得到的平流层温度普遍偏低,主要的差异位于对流层顶区域和平流层高层。（2） 模拟的对流层上层的副热带急流位置偏南、强度也偏弱,而平流层中的绕极极夜急流则位置偏北、强度更大。这样的急流分布特征使模拟的行星波向赤道的波导更强,向极的波导偏弱;同时由于模式中本身可以形成的行星波就比再分析资料弱,因此导致模拟结果中北半球冬季的平流层极涡更加稳定、极区温度更低。（3） BCC模式对于平流层极涡的季节变化特征模拟得较好,但对强极涡扰动过程,即北半球冬季的平流层爆发性增温（SSW）事件则模拟效果不佳,不论是增温事件出现的频率,还是增温的时间、强度,模拟结果和再分析资料都还存在一定偏差,需要在今后的工作中逐步改善。  相似文献   

20.
Summary The 1998/99 tropical cyclone (TC) season over northwest Australia was notable for an above average number of TCs (seven compared to five on average) and a number of unusually intense TCs making landfall (three category 5 TCs). The active 1998/99 TC season is attributed here to a combination of a number of broad-scale features over the south east Indian Ocean and the Australian region, with identifiable precursors favoring tropical cyclogenesis. These precursors include: below normal MSLP, abnormally warm ocean temperatures, above average relative humidity in the low- to mid-tropospheric levels and weak wind shears in the genesis region under study, that is, between 10° S to 20° S and 105° E to 135° E. These favorable conditions first appeared as early as August 1998. The appearance of favorable conditions so far ahead of the TC season indicates that they are the likely cause of the enhanced TC activity rather than simply an effect. Although the season as a whole was an active one, strong intra-seasonal variability was evident in that there were two named TCs in December 1998, forming within three days of each other. Only one formed in January 1999 and none in February. By contrast, in March and April 1999, TC activity was enhanced once again, with four named TCs, three of which attained category 5 status. The importance of the above-mentioned precursors in favoring tropical cyclogenesis during the 1998/99 season is discussed in terms of seasonal time scales of the preceding spring and down to synoptic and mesoscale time scales ranging from several days to 48 hours or less. Received October 5, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001  相似文献   

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