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利用蒲河流域内所有国家气象站以及区域自动气象站共28站逐小时降水实况、过程降水量、数字高程模型、土地利用、土壤类型等资料,采用FloodArea水动力模型,对2020年6月19日21时-22日20时出现的历史罕见暴雨洪涝过程进行洪水淹没模拟及效果检验。模拟结果表明：1)全过程模拟水位与实测水位整体拟合度较高,确定性系数DC达93.22%;2)蒲河上游来水较小,持续性强降水是造成此次洪涝水位偏高的主要原因,模拟显示蒲河流域中上游水位上涨明显,其中石角水文站模拟的最大上涨水位达7.61米,与实测上涨水位7.14米较为一致;3)FloodArea水动力模型能够较准确地反演出蒲河流域暴雨致洪个例的淹没进程,能够直观地反映出淹没范围、淹没深度的空间差异,且淹没深度与逐小时实测水位的确定性系数较高,淹没深度的突增对洪峰的预报预警具有一定的指示意义。 相似文献
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《气象研究与应用》2016,(4)
选取龙须河流域内及周边气象区域站和国家站的逐日降雨量资料,采用广义极值分布函数来进行拟合优度检验并计算出不同重现期的致洪面雨量。将不同重现期致洪面雨量、小时雨型分布、高程数据代入FloodArea模型进行洪水淹没模拟,得到不同重现期下面雨量淹没范围和水深。结果表明:龙须河流域中下游水位上涨明显,靠近龙须河中游的荣华水文站点模拟水淹最深,出现2次涨水,模拟水位上涨超过3m,通过和实际水文站数据对比,洪水发展过程、最高水淹深度要滞后于降水峰值5-7小时,且与实际的水文站的水位差较吻合,证明FloodArea模型在龙须河流域具有较好的洪水淹没模拟效果,为暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估和预警业务提供较好的技术支撑。 相似文献
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基于嵌入河道栅格的山洪灾害淹没模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
文章以江西省曹水作为山洪灾害淹没模拟的研究区域,通过嵌入河道栅格修订数字地形,采用FloodArea水文淹没模型对数字高程模型(Digital Elevation Model,DEM)对修订前后的同一降水过程进行模拟,结合实地考察流域内淹没痕迹和水文站水位资料对比分析两者的模拟结果,并利用确定性系数和Nash—Sutcliffe效率系数对2000—2010年间出现的强降水过程的模拟结果进行验证。结论表明:基于嵌入河道栅格的山洪灾害淹没模拟能较好地反映曹水流域内的因降水导致的山洪推进路线、淹没范围及淹没水深,该方法可作为推算曹水流域的山洪灾害致灾临界面雨量的基础。 相似文献
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水文模型在计算中小流域致汛临界面雨量中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在设定致灾标准的前提下,运用水文模型模拟降水和流量关系,反推不同基础水位达到致灾标准所需要的雨量,探讨中小流域临界面雨量计算的新方法、新思路。以湖北省荆门漳河流域为例,选取控制流域3/4面积的漳河水库为控制站点,利用新安江水文模型,通过1956—2012年36场洪水的模拟率定水文模型的参数,在此基础上结合漳河水库防洪能力,利用水文模型反推计算漳河水库不同基准水位、不同雨量分布条件下的致汛临界面雨量(到达汛限水位所需的面雨量)。结果表明:利用水文模型反推计算中小流域临界面雨量,能直观给出漳河水库不同基准水位、不同降水分布条件下的洪水入库过程曲线、水位变化过程曲线以及流域致汛临界面雨量,意义明确,技术方法可行,能有效丰富中小流域临界面雨量的计算方法。 相似文献
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以太子河流域为研究区域,基于流域内的气象水文数据、数字高程模型及土地利用等资料,采用HBV水文模型对流域的水文过程进行模拟,通过对模型参数的率定与验证,评估了HBV模型在该流域径流模拟的适用性,确定了适合太子河流域的最优化参数,结合水位-流量关系曲线,推算太子河流域不同等级洪水致洪临界雨量。结果表明: HBV模型对太子河流域的径流模拟效果较好,率定期与验证期Nash效率系数与确定性系数均超过0.60,模型中积雪和融雪模块(CFR)、土壤含水量计算模块(BETA)与响应模块(KUZ2、UZ1、PERC)中的这些参数最为敏感,模型基本模拟出了洪水对降水的响应过程。通过建立的HBV水文模型,结合小林子水文站的水位-流量关系曲线,以警戒水位、保证水位作为不同等级洪水的判别条件,推算得到了不同起始水位下太子河流域动态临界雨量指标,临界雨量随起始水位的升高而有所减小。 相似文献
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基于HBV模型的淮河流域洪水致灾临界雨量研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
根据流域暴雨洪水致灾机制,文章提出了考虑前期基础水位的动态致灾临界雨量指标,并以淮河上游地区为例,基于HBV水文模型建立了降水-流量-水位关系,并根据这种关系确立了临界雨量确定的方法流程.首先基于历史水文数据率定和验证模型,得到适用于研究区的最优化模型参数,然后构建洪水上涨期水位流量关系,最后以是否达到致灾水位为标准,通过模型试算并结合水位流量关系曲线反推出致灾临界雨量值.在淮河上游地区的研究中,利用2002-2009年逐日气象水文数据对HBV模型进行了参数率定和检验,并针对洪水过程进行了参数优化,经过率定后HBV模型对王家坝以上流域具备较好的适用性,对典型洪水过程模拟的确定性系数和NASH效率系数均在0.8以上;根据王家坝站实测流量水位数据,构建了概化的单一关系曲线;结合HBV模型和水位流量关系得到了王家坝以上流域的动态致灾临界雨量指标,临界雨量值随前期基础水位升高而减小,并且随着前期水位的变化,临界雨量值呈现了明显的非线性响应特征. 相似文献
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利用实测淹没深度、数字高程(DEM)、土地利用类型、小时降水、定量降水估测(Quantitative Precipitation Estimation,QPE)等数据,通过FloodArea模型对新疆博尔博松流域3次(2013年8月25日、2015年6月28日、2016年6月17日)洪水过程进行再现模拟,对模拟结果的分布特征进行分析,以实测数据进行精度检验,并建立了面雨量-淹没深度关系,在此基础上确定了研究区四个淹没等级对应的致灾临界雨量。运用不同数据模拟得出淹没分布特征为随着时间的变化淹没深度具有上升的趋势,淹没过程可分为蓄积期、稳定增长期和波动上升期3个阶段;通过精度验证得出:FloodArea模型运用自动站降水数据模拟的淹没深度与实测数据相比偏高,而QPE、R-QPE(订正后QPE)数据模拟的则偏低,这三种数据的模拟结果与博尔博松村和塔尔村两个考察点的绝对误差分别为0.46 m、0.78 m、0.35 m和1.35 m、1.44 m、0.65 m,R-QPE数据模拟出的淹没深度效果最好,更能精确地反映出该流域洪水淹没情况;通过相关性分析可知,模拟洪水淹没深度与7 h累计时效的面雨量的相关性最好,相关系数达到了0.989,在此基础上建立了面雨量-淹没深度的关系;按照面雨量-淹没深度的关系和山洪灾害等级划分标准得出,预警点累计时效7 h面雨量对应四个等级的致灾临界雨量阈值分别为:四级6.25 mm、三级23.61 mm、二级49.64 mm、一级75.67 mm。 相似文献
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《湖北气象》2015,(4)
利用流域内所有国家气象站及区域自动站共39站逐小时降水实况、过程降水量和降水落区预报、数字高程模型(DEM)、土地利用、土壤类型以及实地灾情调查等资料,采用Flood Area模型的暴雨淹没情景,对2013年7月5日20时—6日20时大通河流域出现的历史罕见强降水时段进行洪水淹没模拟及效果检验。模拟结果表明:大通河流域中上游水位上涨明显,大部地区涨水超过1 m,部分支流水位上涨超过3 m,竹阳乡、酉华乡和乔木乡的局部地区涨水超过6 m。灾情调查检验表明,对于洪水淹没范围和淹没水深,Flood Area模拟值与实况值均较为吻合,表明Flood Area模型在大通河流域具有较好的洪水淹没模拟效果,可用于暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与预警业务。 相似文献
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The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
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Yuepeng PAN Mengna GU Yuexin HE Dianming WU Chunyan LIU Linlin SONG Shili TIAN Xuemei Lü Yang SUN Tao SONG Wendell W. WALTERS Xuejun LIU Nicholas A. MARTIN Qianqian ZHANG Yunting FANG Valerio FERRACCI Yuesi WANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(9):933-938
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on 相似文献
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The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region. 相似文献
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Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,(4):227
正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. 相似文献
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Connections between the Eurasian teleconnection and concurrent variation of upper-level jets over East Asia 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The variation of the East Asian jet stream(EAJS) associated with the Eurasian(EU) teleconnection pattern is investigated using 60-yr NCEP–NCAR daily reanalysis data over the period 1951–2010. The EAJS consists of three components: the polar front jet(PFJ); the plateau subtropical jet(PSJ); and the ocean subtropical jet(OSJ). Of these three jets over East Asia,the EU pattern exhibits a significant influence on the PFJ and OSJ. There is a simultaneous negative correlation between the EU pattern and the PFJ. A significant positive correlation is found between the EU pattern and the OSJ when the EU pattern leads the OSJ by about 5 days. There is no obvious correlation between the EU pattern and the PSJ. The positive EU phase is accompanied by a weakened and poleward-shifted PFJ, which coincides with an intensified OSJ. A possible mechanism for the variation of the EAJS during different EU phases is explored via analyzing the effects of 10-day high-and low-frequency eddy forcing. The zonal wind tendency due to high-frequency eddy forcing contributes to the simultaneous negative correlation between the EU pattern and the PFJ, as well as the northward/southward shift of the PFJ. High- and low-frequency eddy forcing are both responsible for the positive correlation between the EU pattern and the OSJ, but only high-frequency eddy forcing contributes to the lagged variation of the OSJ relative to the EU pattern. The negative correlation between the EU pattern and winter temperature and precipitation anomalies in China is maintained only when the PFJ and OSJ are out of phase with each other. Thus, the EAJS plays an important role in transmitting the EU signal to winter temperature and precipitation anomalies in China. 相似文献
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By using the gauged rainfall in 160 stations within mainland China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the impacts of anomalous SST in Kuroshio and its extension on precipitation in Northeast China were investigated. The results show that a difference in the meridional circulation such as the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern(EAP)may be responsible for the difference in rainfall between 1998 and 2010. In comparison with 1998, the anomalous meridional circulation pattern in 2010 shifted northeastward, and then the western subtropical high, the mid-latitudinal trough and the northeastern Asia blocking high also shifted northeastward, causing intensified convergence of the cold and warm air masses at the southern region and thus more rainfall in the southwestern region and less in the northwestern region. In 1998, the anomalous cyclone, one component of the meridional pattern, located at the Songhuajiang-Nengjiang River basin, resulted in more rainfall in the majority of the area. The results of observation and the model show that the difference in SSTA in Kuroshio and its extension under the background of different El Ni觡o events is the key point:(1) The anomalous warmth moved westward from the mid-Pacific to the east of the Philippine Sea during the central event, which led the heat resources shifting to the northeast in 2010; subsequently, a shift occurred to the north of the anomalous ascent and decent, followed by a warm SSTA in the region of Kuroshio's extension in 2010 and Kuroshio in 1998.(2) The warm SSTA in the Kuroshio extension causing the Rossby wave activity flux strengthened in 2010, and then the westerly jet shifted northward and extended eastward. A warm SSTA in Kuroshio and cold SSTA in its extension in 1998 caused the westerly jet to shift southward and weaken. As a result,the anomalous anticyclone and cyclone shifted northward in 2010, and the blocking high also shifted northward. 相似文献
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<p>PARTITION OF SEASON BASED ON MULTIELEMENTS AND THE DECADAL CHANGE OF SEASON DURATION IN CHINA</p>
<p>Using the multielements similarity measurement method and 1950–C2017 NCEP/NCAR gridded daily reanalysis datasets, we analyzed season duration in China during 1950–C2016, and we defined the element with maximum absolute sensitivity as the key impact element at each point using the sensitivity analysis method. The decadal change of season duration and its key impact element before and after 1980 were studied. The results indicated obvious meridional and zonal differences in the distribution of season duration for the 67-year average, and that the key impact element has the same distribution characteristics as season duration. In addition, complementary relationships were found between the durations of spring and summer, autumn and winter, and the cold and warm seasons. Of those, the complementary relationship between the durations of spring and summer was strongest and the regions of complementarity were numerous. The complementary regions of autumn and winter durations were found mainly in western China. In the cold and warm seasons, the complementary regions were widespread and the complementary relationship was generally weak. Comparison of the periods before and after 1980 revealed an east–Cwest difference in the interdecadal variation of season duration. Interdecadal variation in spring and summer was found concentrated in northern and western regions, while that in autumn and winter was concentrated in the western region. Areas of significant interdecadal variation of the key elements were found concentrated in northern and western regions, corresponding well with the areas of significant interdecadal variation of season duration.</p> 相似文献
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Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future. 相似文献
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碳交易政策的经济影响:以广东省为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过构建广东省两区域动态模型,对广东省碳交易及其他政策措施进行定量评估,分析实施可调控总量的碳交易政策机制对广东省及参与交易部门的经济影响。研究结果表明,按照减排情景到2015年广东完成19.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景,GDP将减少0.7%;按照强减排情景到2015年将完成20.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景GDP将减少0.9%;如果在强减排情景的基础上实施碳交易政策,GDP相对基准情景减少0.8%,到2015年实施碳交易政策可减少GDP损失约90亿元,说明广东建立碳排放权交易机制能够发挥支持经济发展和节能减碳双赢的作用。 相似文献