共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
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太阳活动与黄河流域降水关系分析 总被引：11，自引：1，他引：11
太阳活动对黄河流域降水有一定影响.引用Morlet小波分析技术,对黄河流域近50年来的降水与太阳黑子的小波系数变化进行分析,表明在1951～1997年期间,黄河流域年降水与太阳黑子在9年时间尺度上呈一定的负相关关系,且降水有1～2年的滞后现象. 相似文献
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利用美国国家海洋大气局(NOAA)地球物理数据中心(NGDC)1954-2005年太阳黑子数资料,把太阳活动作为地球气候的外强迫因子,采用小波分析和交叉小波分析方法,研究了太阳黑子数与江淮梅雨特征量及西太平洋副热带高压指数的关系。结果表明:太阳活动与江淮梅雨的相关性存在南北差异,北部呈现正相关而南部呈现负相关,且正负相关性在时间序列上保持不变;江淮南部梅雨量与太阳黑子数有稳定的11年共振周期及0.5~1年的相位滞后;西太平洋副热带高压指数与太阳黑子数也有较好的相关关系,说明太阳活动影响地球气候可能存在太阳活动—西太平洋副热带高压—江淮梅雨这样一条过程链。 相似文献
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太阳黑子与毕节地区夏季降水预报 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1月份太阳黑子相对数与夏季降水的相互变化关系,制作第2年夏季降水趋势预报。通过绘制变化曲线进行分析,找出其变化规律,发现当太阳活动达到极值时,尤其是由极低值上升至第3年后的5年内,对第2年夏季降水趋势的短期气候预测效果较好。 相似文献
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一个新的千年暖期可能已经来临 总被引：16，自引：12，他引：16
利用1.5万年来的△^14C记录和2600年来的太阳黑子周期长度（SCL）资料，发现太阳活动存在时间尺度为2.1-2.8ka的准周期波动，它们与全球气候的冷暖波动非常吻合，从最近一次“双千年波”的SCL变化规律可知：“千年暖期”开始的标记是持续约300年的太阳活动特别稳定期（SCL在9-12年之间），自191年来太阳活动进入特别稳定期（SCL在9-12年之间），且至今已维持了90年，这与“千年冷期”中太阳活动只有短暂的稳定期有质的区别，它很可能是一个新的“千年暖期”开始的标记，△^14C记录和统计预报结果支持此结论。 相似文献
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青藏高原地面加热场强度变化及其与太阳活动的关系 总被引：8，自引：5，他引：8
利用1958—2006年日喀则和玉树观测的历年各月平均地面(0 cm)温度和气温(百叶箱)资料,采用新量纲重新计算并续补了48年的青藏高原地面加热场强度距平指数。结果表明,青藏高原地面加热场强度存在后延1~2个月的显著相关,干季具有较好的持续性。除存在明显的年际和年代际变化特征外,总体表现出春、夏季由弱变强,秋、冬季由强变弱,且具有稳定而显著的准11年和17年周期。持续的太阳黑子数偏少对青藏高原地面加热场强度的增强具有明显的指示性;太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)变长(太阳活动减弱)时,青藏高原地面加热场强度减弱。通过初步分析认为,太阳活动是引起青藏高原地面加热场强度变化的重要原因之一。 相似文献
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通过对河南省1951－2000年1月份降雪量及其影响因子的分析发现，降雪偏多的主要气候成因与太阳黑子活动高峰期及赤道东太平洋偏低的海温具有明显的相关性，与其它物理因子相关性较差。 相似文献
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本文用１７４９－１９９０年的太阳黑子相对数资料，分析了太阳活动与厄尔尼诺现象之间的关系，结果表明，太阳黑子１２年周期与厄尔尼诺的产生无明显联系，但强的太阳活动对厄尔尼诺事件有增强的作用，太阳活动最新第２２周下降分枝的出现，预计１９９１－１９９２年强的厄尔尼诺出现后，９０年代的其它年份将不会有强的厄尔尼诺事件发生（１９９４￣１９９５年出现的厄尔尼诺事件也只能是中等强度）。 相似文献
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武鸣县洪涝与太阳黑子,厄尔尼诺的关系及其预报 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用武鸣县１９５７－１９９４年洪涝资料与太阳黑子、厄尔尼诺进行统计分析，得出了它们之间的内在联系，然后用双指数法建立起用太阳黑子、厄尔尼诺预报洪涝的预报模式，实践检验证明预报效果较好。 相似文献
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人们早就猜想到太阳活动变化对地球气候有影响，并且许多相关分析也指出了这种联系，但在多数情况下，相关很少具有统计意义。然而，最近的结果指出地球气候的变化与太阳活动有强相关。发现对流层和平流层上部温度与太阳１０－１２年周期有同步关系，在更长时间尺度上，发现全球温度，特别是北半球陆面气温与太阳活动的长期变化有几乎理想的相关。太阳活动并不能仅用一个参数来表示。不论是１８６０－１９９０年的仪器温度记录，还是 相似文献
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Wind records at Brisbane indicate past changes in ambient weather systems that appear to be confirmed by observed changes
in Australian rainfalls. Both wind and rainfall data support geological field evidence of a climatic change in southeast Queensland
in the 1930s.
At Brisbane the numbers of calms observed in January and July declined from 1887 to 1935, and then increased again. This variation
was associated with changes in wind patterns, particularly in winter (July) from 1933 to 1937 and afterwards, but also in
summer (January) during the 1930s. The changes in circulation were enough to explain the movement of beach and dune sands
at that time.
The changes in windiness show a close connection with the 80-year trend in sunspot number: the initial period of below average
sunspot number coincided with increasing wind strength and more southeasterly winds. Rainfall trends show similar associations
with sunspot trends, but the direction of rainfall change is different in different regions. In southeast Australia changes
in rainfall are positively correlated with trends in sunspot number over the last 80 years, while the opposite holds for the
far southwest and Cape York Peninsula. On the north coast negative correlations occur in summer, and positive correlations
in winter, but in Queensland and western New South Wales the correlations are positive in summer and negative in winter. It
is too soon to tell whether the connection between sunspots and weather is accidental or functional. 相似文献
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Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 LIU Yanxiang YAN Jinghui WU Tongwen GUO Yufu CHEN Lihu WANG Jianping 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2008,22(1):42-50
A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 （Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model）, developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）. In order to validate the model, the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980s for the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold （1950 1976） and warm （1977-2000） periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations （significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level）. The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China＇s Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario. The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5~C relative to climate mean （1960-1990）. Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation. 相似文献
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Hou Guangliang E Chongyi Liu Xiangjun Zeng Fangming 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(1-2):259-269
Using 1,981 pieces of temperature records extracted from a selection of tree rings, ice cores, sediments, and other materials with high-resolution historical temperature proxy data, a temperature series of the past 2,000 years on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) with 10-year intervals was reconstructed by the method of single sample correction—multi-sample average integration equations. This series shows that the warm periods mainly appeared before 235 A.D., 775–1275 A.D. and 1845–2000 A.D., while the cold periods occurred 245–765 A.D., 1045–1145 A.D., and 1285–1835 A.D. The Little Ice Age left clear evidence on the TP and its coldest period was between 1635 and 1675 A.D. The Medieval Warm Period on the TP was not as warm as that in the late twentieth century. During the nineteenth century, overall temperature tends to be warmer with a clear rising trend, and in the late twentieth century new highs broke the record of the past 2,000 years. Power spectrum analysis shows that temperature on the TP changes consistently and evidently in a 150-year cycle. This integrated series also shows clear correlations with sunspot activity and solar radiation, as high sunspot activities generally led to warmer periods, and vice versa. Solar activities and intense radiation of recent years are naturally conducive to the global warming since the nineteenth century. The combination of greenhouse gases and natural fluctuations in climate has been the main culprit behind the global warming in the twentieth century. 相似文献
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从副高特征量和500hPa高度场以及高度距平场角度，分析了2002年夏季河南省气候特征，并分析了海温、太阳黑子等特征量对夏季降水的影响。结果表明：2002年夏季副热带高压偏南，北方冷空气活动偏弱，大陆暖高压强盛发展并维持，是造成河南省夏季高温少雨的直接原因；赤道中、东太平洋维持弱的暖事件和太阳活动异常以及天文背景的影响，是造成2002年河南省夏季高温少雨的间接原因。 相似文献
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利用RegCM3模式对青藏高原1991—2000年10年夏季（6~8月）的地面气温和降水进行了模拟, 其模拟结果与CRU资料的对比分析表明: RegCM3模式的模拟能再现高原地面气温和降水的基本特征, 特别是气温, 能捕捉到高原北部夏季升温明显高于南部, 东北部升温最大; 在夏季3个月中, 模拟结果和CRU在6月份最为吻合, 7月份两者均为夏季气温最高月份和升温幅度最大月份, 8月份两者相差较大。RegCM3模式能够模拟出高原降水分布的基本特征和主要干湿中心, 由于高原降水的复杂性和模式对降水描述能力的不足, 降水模拟要差于气温。 相似文献
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A reasonable warmer winter index (IWWI) in the framework of the three equiprobability categories (i.e. warmer, normal and colder categories) is proposed based on the winter temperature data observed at 565 stations in China during 1956-2005, where IWWI is defined as the ratio of the station number of warmer category over the total number of stations. The results suggest that the trend of IWWI was consistent with that of the winter temperature on decadal time scale, and their rates of change were 10%/10 a and 0.4 ℃/10 a, respectively. It is found that only 13 warmer winter events in total were detected by IWWI over the past 50 years, and 85% of them occurred after 1986. 相似文献
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1956-2005年中国暖冬和冬季温度变化 总被引：19，自引：1，他引：18
利用全国565个台站1956-2005年冬季平均温度资料,将多年温度变化划分为偏暖、偏冷和正常三类等概率气候事件,由此给出了一个新的暖冬指数和暖冬的定义。结果表明：暖冬指数与中国冬季温度的变暖趋势相一致,并表现出显著的年代际变化特征,其变率分别为10%/10 a和0.4℃/10 a。近50 a暖冬事件共计发生13次,其中近85%的暖冬发生在1986年以后。受年际尺度变化的影响,2004/2005年和2005/2006年暖冬主要发生在青藏高原和华南南部,而东北、内蒙古及中部大部分地区为冷冬或正常。 相似文献
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Areasonable warmer winter index(IwwI)in the framework of the three equiprobability categories(i.e.warmer,normal and colder categories)is proposed based on the winter temperature data observed at 565 stations in China during 1956-2005,where IwwI is defined as the ratio of the station number of warmer category over the total number of stations.The results suggest that the trend of IwwI was consistent with that of the winter temperature on decadal time scale,and their rates of change were 10%/10 a and 0.4℃/10 a,respectively.It is found that only 13 warmer winter events in total were detected by IwwI over the past 50 years,and 85% of them occurred after 1986. 相似文献