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1.
水分利用效率(WUE)反映了作物耗水量与干物质生产及籽粒产量的关系,提高作物WUE是保障水资源紧缺条件下农业持续稳定发展的关键。根据近30 a郑州地区冬小麦全生育期平均气温、土壤湿度和产量资料,利用数理统计方法,分析了近30 a冬小麦全生育期平均气温与冬小麦WUE的关系,在此基础上模拟了在不同增温、降水减少的气候变化情景下对冬小麦WUE的影响。结果表明:郑州地区近30 a冬小麦全生育期平均气温递增率约为0.82℃/10a;0—100 cm土壤平均湿度呈下降趋势,土壤有效含水量约以44.9 mm/10a的速率递减;实际耗水量年际间平均以18.2 mm/10a的速率递增;气温升高与小麦WUE变化表现为不显著的负相关。未来各情景下冬小麦WUE均比当前的WUE有所增加,其中增温2.4℃、降水减少10%时WUE比基础情景增加了15.5%,但WUE的数值并不随气温增加和降水减少而无限递增,当气温增加2.4℃、降水减少量超过20%时,WUE开始下降。 相似文献
2.
将2009—2010年冬小麦各生育期的气象实测资料与历年、去年进行了对比,分析气象条件对本年度冬小麦产量的影响。探讨当年冬小麦在提前入冬、春季气温回升慢等不利气候条件下,平均单产仍保持较高水平的原因,经分析发现:2009年冬前冷空气来的早导致分蘖少、群体不足、亩穗粒数少;早春气温回升慢,对冬小麦快速生长不利,小穗分化时间长,利于穗粒数增加;后期气温条件转好,极其适宜冬小麦灌浆,利于提高千粒重。 相似文献
3.
小麦和水稻是世界最重要的粮食作物。利用河南省小麦和水稻的历史观测资料,结合DSSAT-CERES小麦和ORYZA2000水稻模拟模型,分析和模拟河南省稻麦类作物在历史气候变化条件下生育期和产量的变化。结果表明:冬小麦全生育期长度呈缩短趋势,但播种-越冬天数平均每10 a增加1.7 d,开花到乳熟天数平均每10 a增加2-4 d,返青后各生育期均表现出不同程度的提前;水稻各生育期均有不同程度的提前,尤其是拔节期以前,分蘖前的生育期间隔天数以缩短为主,拔节后以延长为主。雨养小麦模拟产量和水氮增产潜力均呈减少趋势;随着播种期的提前,水稻减产趋势逐渐减弱。 相似文献
4.
根据新源县气象站1982—2018年冬小麦生育期、产量及同期气温、降水、日照时数资料,采用线性回归、pearson相关系数、3 a直线滑动平均等统计方法,研究了近37 a来新源县冬小麦对气候变化的响应。结果表明:近37 a来新源县冬小麦冬前生育期显著推迟,返青至乳熟期显著提前,春、夏季生育期提前主要受3月上、中旬气温影响。出苗—越冬开始期显著缩短、乳熟—成熟期显著延长,其它各生育期间隔无显著变化,全生育期缩短是由播种期显著推迟造成的。冬小麦气候产量与营养生长期的气象要素显著相关。播种期显著推迟导致冬前的热量积累不足,建议播种期提前10 d左右,利于形成壮苗。 相似文献
5.
基于河南省19812016年18个农业气象观测站的冬小麦观测资料及气象资料,采用一元线性回归法、偏相关分析法和多元线性回归模拟等,分析河南省冬小麦生长发育和产量对气候变化的响应。结果表明：河南省冬小麦出苗返青期和开花成熟期延长,返青开花期缩短,全生育期缩短。全生育期内最高气温和最低气温呈升高趋势,降水量变化不明显,太阳辐射呈减少趋势,不同生长阶段内各气象要素变化趋势不一致。最高气温与小麦气象产量为负相关关系,最低气温、太阳辐射与小麦气象产量为正相关关系,降水量与不同区域的小麦气象产量相关关系不同。小麦相对气象产量与各气象要素敏感性分析结果表明：不同生长阶段小麦相对气象产量对各气象要素变化的敏感性不同;小麦生长时期内最高气温升高1 ℃,相对气象产量减少约16.00%;最低气温升高1 ℃,相对气象产量增加约17.00%;降水量减少10.00%,相对气象产量增加约0.35%;太阳辐射减少10.00%,相对气象产量减少约1.70%。 相似文献
6.
2008年气象条件对黄泛区小麦生长发育的影响分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对2008年度小麦生育期气候条件的分析和河南主栽小麦品种主要性状的比较表明:2008年度小麦生育期间,平均气温高于常年0.5 ℃,日照时数偏少83.4 h,降水偏少10.1 mm.全生育期表现为播种时气温偏低,冬前气温偏高,雨水偏少;越冬期雨雪明显偏多,时间偏长,无明显低温冻害;春性品种干旱高温,小麦苗期生长偏弱,春性品种两极分化提前,后期多风雨,倒伏严重,黑胚和萌动率高,小麦亩成穗数减少,穗粒数持平,千粒重增加,属减产年份.2008年气象条件较适合小麦春性品种生长,对不同的半冬性品种影响略有不同. 相似文献
7.
宁夏灌区春小麦LAI与生长性状和产量的关系 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《干旱气象》2017,(3)
利用宁夏永宁农试站1994—2012年2个品种小麦观测资料,对2个小麦品种的生长性状、产量和产量结构进行方差分析,然后选取2个品种间差异不显著的样本,建立小麦不同发育期叶面积指数(LAI)与株高、密度、产量、穗粒数、结实小穗数及千粒重的关系。结果表明,不同发育期的LAI能反映小麦株高、密度和单位面积结实穗数。抽穗至乳熟阶段的LAI可估测株高,三叶至乳熟阶段的LAI均可监测同期密度,以拔节至乳熟阶段最好。抽穗至乳熟阶段的LAI可估测单位面积有效穗数,以抽穗期效果最好。抽穗至乳熟阶段LAI能较好地反映小麦产量的变化,可利用小麦冠层高光谱测定值构建的植被指数或MODIS植被指数反演LAI,利用LAI与产量的关系估产。如果在小麦不同生育阶段用遥感植被指数估测LAI,就可通过LAI与小麦株高、密度的关系监测小麦长势。抽穗至灌浆前期的LAI相对稳定,利用MODIS植被指数反演的LAI可估测小麦密度、产量和产量结构。 相似文献
8.
根据1953～2003年周口气象资料、小麦生育期观测和小麦产量资料,分析了气候条件对小麦生产的影响,结果表明大部分年份11月上旬之前有1～2次>20 mm的降水过程,有利于小麦播种;小麦越冬期气温较高,有地上部分停止生长、地下部分继续生长的特征,有利于形成壮苗;穗粒形成期无连阴雨的年份占80%,日照相对充足,气温>10 ℃的日数长,延长小花分化时间,有利于成大穗;5月份日照充足,气温日较差大,对小麦灌浆有利.小麦生产气候条件的劣势为春季晚霜冻出现的几率为10年1遇,应注意防范4月10日之后出现的晚霜冻;3～4月偏旱的年份较多,几乎2年1遇,应加强各种水资源的开发;5月份出现干热风的几率为2年1遇,是影响小麦产量的重要气象因素. 相似文献
9.
周口市气候条件对小麦生产的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据 1953~2003年周口气象资料、小麦生育期观测和小麦产量资料,分析了气候条件对小麦生产的影响,结果表明:大部分年份 11月上旬之前有 1~2次>20mm的降水过程,有利于小麦播种;小麦越冬期气温较高,有地上部分停止生长、地下部分继续生长的特征,有利于形成壮苗;穗粒形成期无连阴雨的年份占 80%,日照相对充足,气温>10℃的日数长,延长小花分化时间,有利于成大穗; 5月份日照充足,气温日较差大,对小麦灌浆有利。小麦生产气候条件的劣势为:春季晚霜冻出现的几率为 10年 1遇,应注意防范 4月 10日之后出现的晚霜冻; 3~4月偏旱的年份较多,几乎 2年 1遇,应加强各种水资源的开发; 5月份出现干热风的几率为 2年 1遇,是影响小麦产量的重要气象因素。 相似文献
10.
11.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
12.
Yuepeng PAN Mengna GU Yuexin HE Dianming WU Chunyan LIU Linlin SONG Shili TIAN Xuemei Lü Yang SUN Tao SONG Wendell W. WALTERS Xuejun LIU Nicholas A. MARTIN Qianqian ZHANG Yunting FANG Valerio FERRACCI Yuesi WANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(9):933-938
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on 相似文献
13.
《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,(4):227
正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. 相似文献
14.
Connections between the Eurasian teleconnection and concurrent variation of upper-level jets over East Asia 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The variation of the East Asian jet stream(EAJS) associated with the Eurasian(EU) teleconnection pattern is investigated using 60-yr NCEP–NCAR daily reanalysis data over the period 1951–2010. The EAJS consists of three components: the polar front jet(PFJ); the plateau subtropical jet(PSJ); and the ocean subtropical jet(OSJ). Of these three jets over East Asia,the EU pattern exhibits a significant influence on the PFJ and OSJ. There is a simultaneous negative correlation between the EU pattern and the PFJ. A significant positive correlation is found between the EU pattern and the OSJ when the EU pattern leads the OSJ by about 5 days. There is no obvious correlation between the EU pattern and the PSJ. The positive EU phase is accompanied by a weakened and poleward-shifted PFJ, which coincides with an intensified OSJ. A possible mechanism for the variation of the EAJS during different EU phases is explored via analyzing the effects of 10-day high-and low-frequency eddy forcing. The zonal wind tendency due to high-frequency eddy forcing contributes to the simultaneous negative correlation between the EU pattern and the PFJ, as well as the northward/southward shift of the PFJ. High- and low-frequency eddy forcing are both responsible for the positive correlation between the EU pattern and the OSJ, but only high-frequency eddy forcing contributes to the lagged variation of the OSJ relative to the EU pattern. The negative correlation between the EU pattern and winter temperature and precipitation anomalies in China is maintained only when the PFJ and OSJ are out of phase with each other. Thus, the EAJS plays an important role in transmitting the EU signal to winter temperature and precipitation anomalies in China. 相似文献
15.
<p>PARTITION OF SEASON BASED ON MULTIELEMENTS AND THE DECADAL CHANGE OF SEASON DURATION IN CHINA</p>
<p>Using the multielements similarity measurement method and 1950–C2017 NCEP/NCAR gridded daily reanalysis datasets, we analyzed season duration in China during 1950–C2016, and we defined the element with maximum absolute sensitivity as the key impact element at each point using the sensitivity analysis method. The decadal change of season duration and its key impact element before and after 1980 were studied. The results indicated obvious meridional and zonal differences in the distribution of season duration for the 67-year average, and that the key impact element has the same distribution characteristics as season duration. In addition, complementary relationships were found between the durations of spring and summer, autumn and winter, and the cold and warm seasons. Of those, the complementary relationship between the durations of spring and summer was strongest and the regions of complementarity were numerous. The complementary regions of autumn and winter durations were found mainly in western China. In the cold and warm seasons, the complementary regions were widespread and the complementary relationship was generally weak. Comparison of the periods before and after 1980 revealed an east–Cwest difference in the interdecadal variation of season duration. Interdecadal variation in spring and summer was found concentrated in northern and western regions, while that in autumn and winter was concentrated in the western region. Areas of significant interdecadal variation of the key elements were found concentrated in northern and western regions, corresponding well with the areas of significant interdecadal variation of season duration.</p> 相似文献
16.
By using the gauged rainfall in 160 stations within mainland China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the impacts of anomalous SST in Kuroshio and its extension on precipitation in Northeast China were investigated. The results show that a difference in the meridional circulation such as the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern(EAP)may be responsible for the difference in rainfall between 1998 and 2010. In comparison with 1998, the anomalous meridional circulation pattern in 2010 shifted northeastward, and then the western subtropical high, the mid-latitudinal trough and the northeastern Asia blocking high also shifted northeastward, causing intensified convergence of the cold and warm air masses at the southern region and thus more rainfall in the southwestern region and less in the northwestern region. In 1998, the anomalous cyclone, one component of the meridional pattern, located at the Songhuajiang-Nengjiang River basin, resulted in more rainfall in the majority of the area. The results of observation and the model show that the difference in SSTA in Kuroshio and its extension under the background of different El Ni觡o events is the key point:(1) The anomalous warmth moved westward from the mid-Pacific to the east of the Philippine Sea during the central event, which led the heat resources shifting to the northeast in 2010; subsequently, a shift occurred to the north of the anomalous ascent and decent, followed by a warm SSTA in the region of Kuroshio's extension in 2010 and Kuroshio in 1998.(2) The warm SSTA in the Kuroshio extension causing the Rossby wave activity flux strengthened in 2010, and then the westerly jet shifted northward and extended eastward. A warm SSTA in Kuroshio and cold SSTA in its extension in 1998 caused the westerly jet to shift southward and weaken. As a result,the anomalous anticyclone and cyclone shifted northward in 2010, and the blocking high also shifted northward. 相似文献
17.
Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future. 相似文献
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19.
Characterization and source apportionment of volatile organic compounds in urban and suburban Tianjin,China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tianjin is the third largest megacity and the fastest growth area in China, and consequently faces the problems of surface ozone and haze episodes. This study measures and characterizes volatile organic compounds(VOCs), which are ozone precursors, to identify their possible sources and evaluate their contribution to ozone formation in urban and suburban Tianjin,China during the Ha Chi(Haze in China) summer campaign in 2009. A total of 107 species of ambient VOCs were detected,and the average concentrations of VOCs at urban and suburban sites were 92 and 174 ppbv, respectively. Of those, 51 species of VOCs were extracted to analyze the possible VOC sources using positive matrix factorization. The identified sources of VOCs were significantly related to vehicular activities, which specifically contributed 60% to urban and 42% to suburban VOCs loadings in Tianjin. Industrial emission was the second most prominent source of ambient VOCs in both urban and suburban areas, although the contribution of industry in the suburban area(36%) was much higher than that at the urban area(16%). We conclude that controlling vehicle emissions should be a top priority for VOC reduction, and that fast industrialization and urbanization causes air pollution to be more complex due to the combined emission of VOCs from industry and daily life, especially in suburban areas. 相似文献
20.
碳交易政策的经济影响:以广东省为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过构建广东省两区域动态模型,对广东省碳交易及其他政策措施进行定量评估,分析实施可调控总量的碳交易政策机制对广东省及参与交易部门的经济影响。研究结果表明,按照减排情景到2015年广东完成19.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景,GDP将减少0.7%;按照强减排情景到2015年将完成20.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景GDP将减少0.9%;如果在强减排情景的基础上实施碳交易政策,GDP相对基准情景减少0.8%,到2015年实施碳交易政策可减少GDP损失约90亿元,说明广东建立碳排放权交易机制能够发挥支持经济发展和节能减碳双赢的作用。 相似文献