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People vary considerably in terms of their knowledge, beliefs, and concern about climate change. Thus, an important challenge for climate change communicators is how to most effectively engage different types of audiences. This study aimed to identify distinct audience segments that vary in terms of their values, beliefs, and responses to climate change and determine for each segment which specific message attributes increased motivation to engage in climate adaptation. A sample of 1031 Australian residents (aged 18–66 years) completed an online survey assessing their values, beliefs, and behaviors related to climate change, and recording their responses to a broad range of climate change adaptation messages. Latent profile analysis identified three distinct audience segments: alarmed (34.4%), uncommitted (45.2%), and dismissive (20.3%). Sixty climate change adaptation messages were coded in terms of the presence/absence of six attributes: explicit reference to climate change, providing specific adaptation advice, strong negative emotive content, emphasis on collective responsibility, highlighting local impacts, and underscoring financial impacts. Participants viewed a random sample of six messages and rated the extent to which each message motivated them to seek out more information and immediately respond to the climate change threat portrayed in the message. Multilevel modeling indicated messages that included strong negative emotive content or provided specific adaptation advice increased adaptation intentions in all three audience segments. Omitting any mention of climate change and emphasizing local impacts increased adaptation intentions in dismissive audiences. Implications for tailoring and targeting climate change adaptation messages are discussed. 相似文献
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Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change? 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
W. Neil Adger Suraje Dessai Marisa Goulden Mike Hulme Irene Lorenzoni Donald R. Nelson Lars Otto Naess Johanna Wolf Anita Wreford 《Climatic change》2009,93(3-4):335-354
While there is a recognised need to adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is an emerging discourse of limits to such adaptation. Limits are traditionally analysed as a set of immutable thresholds in biological, economic or technological parameters. This paper contends that limits to adaptation are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, knowledge, attitudes to risk and culture. We review insights from history, sociology and psychology of risk, economics and political science to develop four propositions concerning limits to adaptation. First, any limits to adaptation depend on the ultimate goals of adaptation underpinned by diverse values. Second, adaptation need not be limited by uncertainty around future foresight of risk. Third, social and individual factors limit adaptation action. Fourth, systematic undervaluation of loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation. We conclude that these issues of values and ethics, risk, knowledge and culture construct societal limits to adaptation, but that these limits are mutable. 相似文献
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Stewart J. Cohen 《Climatic change》2010,100(1):131-135
A shared learning model is described, in which researchers and local practitioners collaborate on climate change studies.
The legacy of such partnerships is that beyond the generation of research results, practitioners may become climate change
extension agents, supporting governments and businesses in responding to climate change. 相似文献
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《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):247-260
In order to stabilize long-term greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm CO2-eq or lower, developed countries as a group should reduce emissions by 25–40% below 1990 levels by 2020, while developing countries' emissions need to be reduced by around 15–30%, relative to their baseline levels, according to the IPCC and our earlier work. This study examines 19 other studies on the emission reductions attributed to the developed and developing countries for meeting a 450 ppm target. These studies considered different allocation approaches, according to equity principles. The effect of the assumed global emissions cap in these studies is analysed. For developed countries, the original reduction range of 25–40% by 2020 is still within the average range of all studies, but does not cover it completely. Comparing the studies shows that assuming a global emissions cap of 5–15% above 1990 levels by 2020 generally leads to more stringent reduction targets than when a global emissions cap of 20–30% above 1990 levels is assumed. For developing countries, the reduction range of 15–30% below their baseline levels by 2020 corresponds to an increase on the 1990 level from 70% (about the 2006 level) to 120%. Reducing deforestation emissions by 50% below baseline levels by 2020 may relax the emission reductions for either group of countries; for developing countries by about 7% or for developed countries by about 15% (but not for both). 相似文献
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Martin Achtnicht 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):679-697
Motorized individual transport strongly contributes to global CO2 emissions, due to its intensive usage of fossil fuels. Current political efforts addressing this issue (i.e. emission performance standards in the EU) are directed towards car manufacturers. This paper focuses on the demand side. It examines whether CO2 emissions per kilometer is a relevant attribute in car choices. Based on a choice experiment among potential car buyers from Germany, a mixed logit specification is estimated. In addition, distributions of willingness-to-pay measures for an abatement of CO2 emissions are obtained. The results suggest that the emissions performance of a car matters substantially, but its consideration varies heavily across the sampled population. In particular, some evidence on gender, age and education effects on climate concerns is provided. 相似文献
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《大气科学进展》2007,24(6):1138-1143
ANEL Juan Antonio:see DE LA TORRE Laura et al.:(2)，191一198 AN Gang:see SUN Li et al.:(4)，606一618 AN Junling:CHENG Xinjin，QUYu，and CHEN YOng:Influenee of Vertieal Eddy Diffusivity Pa- rameterization on Daily and Monthly Mean Con- eentrations of 03 and NO、:(4)，573一580 AN Xingqin;ZUO Hongehao，and CHEN Lijuan;At- mospherie Environmental Capaeity of 502 in Win- ter ove:Lanzhou in China:A Case Study:(4)，688一699 AO Yinhuan;see WEN Jun et al.;(2)，301一310 BA… 相似文献
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Luís Gustavo N. Martins Scott D. Miller Otávio C. Acevedo 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,163(1):123-141
A methodology based on Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) was used to filter out non-turbulent motions from measurements of atmospheric turbulence over the sea, aimed at reducing their contribution to eddy-covariance (EC) estimates of turbulent fluxes. The proposed methodology has two main objectives: (1) to provide more robust estimates of the fluxes of momentum, heat and CO\(_2\); and (2) to reduce the number of flux intervals rejected due to non-stationarity criteria when using traditional EC data processing techniques. The method was applied to measurements from a 28-day cruise (HALOCAST 2010) in the Eastern Pacific region. Empirical mode decomposition was applied to 4-h long time series data and used to determine the cospectral gap time scale, \(T_\mathrm{{gap}}\). Intrinsic modes of oscillation with characteristic periods longer than the gap scale due to non-turbulent motions were assumed and filtered out. Turbulent fluxes were then calculated for sub-intervals of length \(T_\mathrm{{gap}}\) from the filtered 4-h time series. In the HALOCAST data, the gap scale was successfully identified in 89% of the 4-h periods and had a mean of 37 s. The EMD approach resulted in the rejection of 11% of the flux intervals, which was much less than the 68% rejected when using standard filtering methods based on data non-stationarity. For momentum and sensible heat fluxes, the averaged difference in flux magnitude between the traditional and EMD approaches was small (3 and 1%, respectively). For the CO\(_2\) flux, the magnitude of EMD flux estimates was on average 16% less than fluxes estimated from linear detrended 10-min time series. These results provide evidence that the EMD method can be used to reduce the effects of non-turbulent correlations from flux estimates. 相似文献
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The need to adapt to climate change impacts, whilst simultaneously limiting greenhouse gas emissions, requires that the government’s efforts are joined by public action. In England and Wales, housing contributes significantly to the emissions and many properties are at risk of flooding. This paper investigates the preparedness of homeowners in England and Wales to make changes to their homes in response to the predicted effects of climate change. A telephone survey of 961 homeowners investigated their interest in purchasing mitigation and adaptation improvements against their concern about climate change, awareness of flood risk and attribution of responsibility for action. Whilst the majority of homes had some energy-saving improvements, few were found to have property-level flood protection. The high levels of awareness about climate change and flooding were coupled with the perception of risks as low. Whilst some respondents accepted personal responsibility for action, most believed that the authorities were responsible for flood protection, and would not pay the costs required to make their home more energy-efficient and better prepared for the eventuality of floods. The results suggest that there is scope for further improvement of energy-saving measures, and that the levels of adoption of flood-protection measures are very low. Multi-faceted strategies, including more effective communication of risks and responsibilities, incentives, and material support for the poorest, will need to be developed to overcome the current reluctance by homeowners to invest in flood-protection measures and further energy conservation solutions in the future. 相似文献
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“Grand Paris” is a study carried out by ten teams of researchers and city planners in the aim of putting forward general guidelines for Paris urban area’s evolution by 2030. All the teams suggest making the area “greener” in some way, to combat climate warming by CO2 sequestration. Our team also shows that extending the nearby forests by 30 %, favouring short farm-to-consumer circuits and using lighter coloured building materials will decrease the urban heat island, reducing the mortality during heat waves as well as the need for air-conditioning. These results lead us to reverse the way of thinking urban planning: the geographic and natural aspects should replace the urban infrastructure as a driver for planning urban development. This new strategy allows city changes on quite a large scale, that will have a favourable impact in terms of economics, leisure activities, greenhouse gas emissions and the local microclimate. 相似文献
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A significant attempt to design a timesaving and efficient four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar) has been made in this paper, and a new approach to data assimilation, which is noted as 'three-dimensional variational data assimilation of mapped observation (3DVM)' is proposed, based on the new concept of mapped observation and the new idea of backward 4DVar. Like the available 4DVar, 3DVM produces an optimal initial condition (IC) that is consistent with the prediction model due to the inclusion of model constraints and best fits the observations in the assimilation window through the model solution trajectory. Different from the 4DVar, the IC derived from 3DVM is located at the end of the assimilation window rather than at the beginning conventionally. This change greatly reduces the computing cost for the new approach, which is almost the same as that of the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar). Especially, such a change is able to improve assimilation accuracy because it does not need the tangential linear and adjoint approximations to calculate the gradient of cost function. Therefore, in numerical test, the new approach produces better IC than 4DVar does for 72-h simulation of TY9914 (Dan), by assimilating the three-dimensional fields of temperature and wind retrieved from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) observations. Meanwhile, it takes only 1/7 of the computing cost that the 4DVar requires for the same initialization with the same retrieved data. 相似文献
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N. Ranger L. K. Gohar J. A. Lowe S. C. B. Raper A. Bowen R. E. Ward 《Climatic change》2012,111(3-4):973-981
This study explores the feasibility of limiting increases in global temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. A probabilistic simple climate model is used to identify emissions paths that offer at least a 50% chance of achieving this goal. We conclude that it is more likely than not that warming would exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, under plausible mitigation scenarios. We have identified three criteria of emissions paths that could meet the 1.5°C goal with a temporary overshoot of no more than 50 years: early and strong reductions in emissions, with global emissions peaking in 2015 and falling to at most 44–48 GtCO2e in 2020; rapid reductions in annual global emissions after 2020 (of at least 3–4% per year); very low annual global emissions by 2100 (less than 2–4 GtCO2e) and falling to zero (or below) in the 22nd century. The feasibility of these characteristics is uncertain. We conclude that the proposed date of review of the 1.5°C goal, set at 2015, may be too late to achieve the necessary scaling up of emissions cuts to achieve this goal. 相似文献
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Kazuyoshi Kikuchi 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(5-6):1339-1356
Convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) are major sources of tropical day-to-day variability. The majority of CCEWs-related studies for the past decade or so have based their analyses, in one form or another, on the Fourier-based space–time spectral analysis method developed by Wheeler and Kiladis (WK). Like other atmospheric and oceanic phenomena, however, CCEWs exhibit pronounced nonstationarity, which the conventional Fourier-based method has difficulty elucidating. The purpose of this study is to introduce an analysis method that is able to describe the time-varying spectral features of CCEWs. The method is based on a transform, referred to as the combined Fourier–wavelet transform (CFWT), defined as a combination of the Fourier transform in space (longitude) and wavelet transform in time, providing an instantaneous space–time spectrum at any given time. The elaboration made on how to display the CFWT spectrum in a manner analogous to the conventional method (i.e., as a function of zonal wavenumber and frequency) and how to estimate the background noise spectrum renders the method more practically feasible. As a practical example, this study analyzes 3-hourly cloud archive user service (CLAUS) cloudiness data for 23 years. The CFWT and WK methods exhibit a remarkable level of agreement in the distributions of climatological-mean space–time spectra over a wide range of space–time scales ranging in time from several hours to several tens of days, indicating the instantaneous CFWT spectrum provides a reasonable snapshot. The usefulness of the capability to localize space–time spectra in time is demonstrated through examinations of the annual cycle, interannual variability, and a case study. 相似文献
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With a range of potential pathways to a sustainable future compatible with the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C target, scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool in studies of climate change mitigation and adaptation. A wide range of alternative scenarios have been created, and core amongst these are five socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways or SSPs) and four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). Whilst mitigation scenarios (the Shared Policy Assumptions, or SPAs) have been developed for each SSP-RCP combination, describing the actions necessary to match the climate pathway of the RCP, there has not yet been a systematic approach to address whether and how these actions can be enabled in practice.We present a novel and transferable framework to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 °C target, based on four participatory case studies using the SSP-RCP scenarios. The methodology builds on a framework for categorising different types of societal capitals and capacities and assessing their impact on the potential to implement different types of mitigation actions. All four case studies show that SSP1 has the highest potential to reach the target. Although environmental awareness is high in both SSP1 and SSP4, continued social inequalities in SSP4 restrict society’s capacity to transform, despite economic growth. In the two least environmentally-aware SSPs, SSP3 and SSP5, the transformation potential is low, but the view on capitals and capacities nonetheless helps identify opportunities for actors to develop and implement mitigation actions.The study highlights that techno-economic assessments of climate strategies need to be complemented by consideration of the critical role played by social and human capital, and by societal capacity to mobilise and create these capitals despite different socio-economic trends. These capitals and capacities are essential to enable the rapid innovation, behavioural change and international co-ordination needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target. 相似文献
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Zhengxi Tan Larry L. Tieszen Shuguang Liu Emmanuel Tachie-Obeng 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):703-715
Many savannas in West Africa have been converted to croplands and are among the world’s regions most vulnerable to climate change due to deteriorating soil quality. We focused on the savanna-derived cropland in northern Ghana to simulate its sensitivity to projected climate change and nitrogen fertilization scenarios. Here we show that progressive warming–drying stress over the twenty-first century will enhance soil carbon emissions from all kinds of lands of which the natural ecosystems will be more vulnerable to variation in climate variables, particularly in annual precipitation. The carbon emissions from all croplands, however, could be mitigated by applying nitrogen fertilizer at 30–60 kg N ha???1 year???1. The uncertainties of soil organic carbon budgets and crop yields depend mainly on the nitrogen fertilization rate during the first 40 years and then are dominated by climate drying stress. The replenishment of soil nutrients, especially of nitrogen through fertilization, could be one of the priority options for policy makers and farm managers as they evaluate mitigation and adaptation strategies of cropping systems and management practices to sustain agriculture and ensure food security under a changing climate. 相似文献