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《Global Environmental Change》2001,11(1):19-29
The African Sahel provides the most dramatic example of multi-decadal climate variability that has been quantitatively and directly measured. Annual rainfall across this region fell by between 20 and 30 per cent between the decades leading up to political independence for the Sahelian nations (1930s to 1950s) and the decades since (1970s to 1990s). Climatic perspectives on the nature and causes of this period of desiccation have changed and, in some cases, matured as the years — and the drought — continued. This paper reviews these changing perspectives and reflects on three central questions: How unique an occurrence has been this desiccation in the recent human history of the Sahel? Can we find an adequate explanation for this desiccation in the natural forces that shape the climate system, or do we have to implicate human interventions in the system? Is our understanding of climate variability sufficient to allow us to develop seasonal rainfall forecasting capabilities for the region? 相似文献
3.
The Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary-layer (PBL) scheme is a second-order turbulence closure model that is an improved version of the Mellor–Yamada scheme based on large-eddy simulation data. It simulates PBL structure and evolution well, particularly over the ocean surface. However, when used with various underlying surfaces in China, the scheme overestimates the turbulent momentum flux and the sensible heat flux. Based on observations of surface fluxes in China, we attempt to improve the MYNN model by modifying the parameters and representation of the turbulence scale. Closure constants and empirical expressions in the diagnostic equation are chosen first, and an additional component of the turbulent heat flux is considered in the potential temperature prognostic equation to improve the surface heat-flux modelling. The modified MYNN scheme is incorporated into a three-dimensional mesoscale model and is evaluated using various underlying surface observations. Amelioration of the surface turbulent fluxes is confirmed at five observational sites in China over different land-use types. 相似文献
4.
Pan Yongjie Lyu Shihua Li Suosuo Gao Yanhong Meng Xianhong Ao Yinhuan Wang Shujin 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,127(3-4):1011-1022
Soils containing gravel (particle size ≥2 mm) are widely distributed over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). Soil mixed with gravel has different thermal and hydrological properties compared with fine soil (particle size <2 mm) and thus has marked impacts on soil water and heat transfer. However, the most commonly used land models do not consider the effects of gravel. This paper reports the development of a new scheme that simulates the thermal and hydrological processes in soil containing gravel and its application in the QTP. The new scheme was implemented in version 4 of the Community Land Model, and experiments were conducted for two typical sites in the QTP. The results showed that (1) soil with gravel tends to reduce the water holding capacity and enhance the hydraulic conductivity and drainage; (2) the thermal conductivity increases with soil gravel content, and the response of the temperature of soil mixed with gravel to air temperature change is rapid; (3) the new scheme performs well in simulating the soil temperature and moisture—the mean biases of soil moisture between the simulation and observation reduced by 25–48 %, and the mean biases of soil temperature reduced by 9–25 %. Therefore, this scheme can successfully simulate the thermal and hydrological processes in soil with different levels of gravel content and is potentially applicable in land surface models.
相似文献5.
Helene Muri André Berger Qiuzhen Yin Aurore Voldoire David Salas Y. Mélia Suchithra Sundaram 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(7-8):1739-1761
As a first qualitative assessment tool, LOVECLIM has been used to investigate the interactions between insolation, ice sheets and the East Asian Monsoon at the Marine Isotopic Stage 13 (MIS–13) in work by Yin et?al. (Clim Past 4:79–90, 2008, Clim Past 5:229–243, 2009). The results are in need of validation with a more sophisticated model, which is done in this work with the ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model. As in the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity, LOVECLIM, ARPEGE shows that the northern hemispheric high insolation in summer leads to strong MIS–13 monsoon precipitation. Data from the Chinese Loess Plateau indicate that MIS–13 was locally a warm and humid period (Guo et?al. in Clim Past 5:21–31, 2009; Yin and Guo in Chin Sci Bull 51(2):213–220, 2006). This is confirmed by these General Circulation Model (GCM) results, where the MIS–13 climate is found to be hotter and more humid both in the presence and absence of any added ice sheets. LOVECLIM found that the combined effects of the ice sheets and their accompanying SSTs contribute to more precipitation in eastern China, whilst in ARPEGE the impact is significant in northeastern China. Nonetheless the results of ARPEGE confirm the counter-intuitive results of LOVECLIM where ice sheets contribute to enhance monsoon precipitation. This happens through a topography induced wave propagating through Eurasia with an ascending branch over northeastern China. A feature which is also seen in LOVECLIM. The SST forcing in ARPEGE results in a strong zonal temperature gradient between the North Atlantic and east Eurasia, which in turn triggers an atmospheric gravity wave. This wave induces a blocking Okhotskian high, preventing the northwards penetration of the Meiyu monsoon front. The synergism between the ice sheets and SST is found through the factor separation method, yielding an increase in the Meiyu precipitation, though a reduction of the Changma precipitation. The synergism between the ice sheets and SST play a non-negligible role and should be taken into consideration in GCM studies. Preliminary fully coupled AOGCM results presented here further substantiate the finding of stronger MIS–13 monsoons and a reinforcement from ice sheets. This work increases our understanding of the signals found in the paleo-observations and the dynamics of the complex East Asian Summer Monsoon. 相似文献
6.
《Atmospheric Research》2008,87(3-4):297-314
This paper addresses the sensitivity of the relationships between radar reflectivity (Z) and liquid water content (M) for liquid water clouds to microphysical drizzle parameters by means of simulated radar observation at a frequency of 3 GHz of modeled cumulus clouds. A power law relationship for non drizzling clouds with water content as high as 3 gm− 3: Zc = 0.026 Mc1.61 is numerically derived and agreed with previous empirical relationships relative to cumulus and stratocumulus. This relationship is then used to explore the influence of drizzle on the correlation between radar reflectively and water content. Due to their large diameters with respect to cloud droplets, drizzle sized drops dominate radar reflectivity but do not carry the cloud water content so that reflectivity and liquid water content are expected to be not correlated in clouds containing drizzle. It is shown that for congestus or extreme congestus cumuli, microphysical conditions for which the Zc–Mc relationship can be used with a tolerance of 5 and 10% are provided whereas for humilis or mediocris cumuli, the presence of drizzle breaks down the Zc–Mc relationship whatever the situations. 相似文献
7.
Soil is heterogeneous and has different thermal and hydraulic properties, causing varied behavior in heat and moisture transport. Therefore, soil has an important effect on land–atmosphere interactions. In this study, an improved soil parameterization scheme that considers gravel and organic matter in the soil was introduced into CLM4.5 (Community Land Model). By using data from the Zoige and Madoi sites on the Tibetan Plateau, the ability of the model to simultaneously simulate the duration of freeze–thaw periods, soil temperature, soil moisture, and surface energy during freeze–thaw processes, was validated. The results indicated that: (1) the new parameterization performed better in simulating the duration of the frozen, thawing, unfrozen, and freezing periods; (2) with the new scheme, the soil thermal conductivity values were decreased; (3) the new parameterization improved soil temperature simulation and effectively decreased cold biases; (4) the new parameterization scheme effectively decreased the dry biases of soil liquid water content during the freezing, completely frozen, and thawing periods, but increased the wet biases during the completely thawed period; and (5) the net radiation, latent heat flux, and soil surface heat flux of the Zoige and Madoi sites were much improved by the new organic matter and thermal conductivity parameterization. 相似文献
8.
The aim of this paper is to re-examine and quantify a hypothesis first put forward by J. Bjerknes concerning the anomalous coldness during the AD 1790–1820 period in western Europe. Central to Bjerknes hypothesis is an anomalous interaction between ocean and atmosphere studied here using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. A reconstruction of the sea-level pressure pattern over the North Atlantic sector averaged over the period 1790–1820 is assimilated in this model, using a recently developed technique which has not been applied to paleoclimatic modelling before. This technique ensures that averaged over the simulation the reconstructed pattern is retrieved whilst leaving atmospheric and climatic variability to develop freely. In accordance with Bjerknes hypothesis, the model results show anomalous southward advection of polar waters into the northeastern North Atlantic in the winter season, lowering the sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) there with 0.3–1.0°C. This SST anomaly is persistent into the summer season. A decrease in western European winter surface air temperatures is found which can be related almost completely to advection of cold polar air. The decrease in summer surface air temperatures is related to a combination of low SSTs and anomalous atmospheric circulation. The modelled winter and summer temperatures in Europe compare favourably with reconstructed temperatures. Enhanced baroclinicity at the Atlantic seaboard and over Baffin Island is observed along with more variability in the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks. The zone of peak winter storm frequency is drawn to the European mid-latitudes. 相似文献
9.
Winter rainfall over southern China is usually enhanced when Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO) is active over the Indian Ocean, but it can be weakened under certain conditions. Here, the diversity of MJO impacts on winter rainfall and its mechanisms are explored by using scenarios of enhanced and suppressed rainfall anomalies over southern China when MJO is active over the Indian Ocean. The combined effects of low-frequency background moisture and intraseasonal winds are the major contributors to the different rainfall anomalies. Anomalous circulation in mid–high latitudes, especially on intraseasonal timescales, is almost opposite in the two scenarios, which can modulate the response of extratropical atmosphere to MJO heating and then induces the different circulations over southern China. In the enhanced scenario, mid–high latitudes of Eurasia and southern China are dominated by positive and negative sea level pressure anomalies, respectively. The southerly over southern China and the South China Sea induced by MJO heating promotes the anomalous moisture convergence and ascending motion over southern China, resulting in the enhanced rainfall. In the suppressed scenario, however, the circulation in mid–high latitudes does not favor rainfall over southern China and leads to the northerly response to MJO heating over southern China, which enhances moisture divergence and weakens rainfall over southern China. 相似文献
10.
This study has investigated the possible relation between the Indian summer monsoon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) observed in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Pacific Ocean. Using long records of observations and coupled model (NCAR CCSM4) simulation, this study has found that the warm (cold) phase of the PDO is associated with deficit (excess) rainfall over India. The PDO extends its influence to the tropical Pacific and modifies the relation between the monsoon rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During the warm PDO period, the impact of El Niño (La Niña) on the monsoon rainfall is enhanced (reduced). A hypothesis put forward for the mechanism by which PDO affects the monsoon starts with the seasonal footprinting of SST from the North Pacific to the subtropical Pacific. This condition affects the trade winds, and either strengthens or weakens the Walker circulation over the Pacific and Indian Oceans depending on the phase of the PDO. The associated Hadley circulation in the monsoon region determines the impact of PDO on the monsoon rainfall. We suggest that knowing the phase of PDO may lead to better long-term prediction of the seasonal monsoon rainfall and the impact of ENSO on monsoon. 相似文献
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12.
Warming and drying trends on the Tibetan Plateau (1971–2005) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Hong Xie Jiansheng Ye Xiuming Liu Chongyi E 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,101(3-4):241-253
Annual and seasonal trends in maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) were examined with the goal of understanding trends in temperature and moisture across the Tibetan Plateau, using meteorological data (1971–2005) collected at 63 stations. Trends in pan evaporation (PE; 1971–2001, 68 stations) and runoff (1971–2002) in the headwater of the Yellow River were also analysed. Positive trends in maximum and minimum temperatures were observed across the Tibetan Plateau. The highest increases were observed during winter, with results from the majority of stations statistically significant at the 95% level. A decrease trend in diurnal temperature range (DTR) was also observed. Trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and VPD were positive, while the trend in PE was negative. However, the increase in precipitation was not as pronounced as the increase in temperature. Although PE decreased during the time series, actual evaporation probably increased because of the warming across the Tibetan Plateau, where the annual potential water loss measured as PE is three to four times the annual water supply by precipitation. Warming was expected to increase evapotranspiration, causing more water vapour to escape into the atmosphere, thus counteracting or even exceeding the slight increase in precipitation. The increases in annual and seasonal VPD trends indicated a drying tendency and were further substantiated by the observed decrease in runoff in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River. The results provided insight into recent climatic changes across the Tibetan Plateau. 相似文献
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Hai Xia Shan 《大气与海洋》2017,55(4-5):230-246
To study the interaction between sea surface temperature (SST) and surface wind in the East China Sea (ECS), the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modelling system is used to downscale a global atmospheric reanalysis product over the study area in 2013. A singular value decomposition (SVD) method is applied to SST and surface wind speed to study their coupling relationship in the ECS. The heterogeneous correlation map indicates that the surface wind has a negative correlation with the SST, especially in the Kuroshio Current. From lead-lag correlations between the first principal component of SST and surface wind SVD (filtered using a Lanczos high-pass filter with a 90-day cut-off), a correlation of about 0.1 is found at lag ?6, and a negative correlation of about ?0.3 is also found around lag 1. The results indicate a negative feedback between SST and wind fluctuations at short time-scales. Air–sea heat ?uxes contribute little to the SST variability in the ECS section of the Kuroshio and the analysis of the mixed-layer heat budget shows that the contribution of horizontal advection is dominant in determining the intraseasonal SST signals. 相似文献
15.
Baoqing Zhang Pute Wu Xining Zhao Yubao Wang Xiaodong Gao Xinchun Cao 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(1-2):125-138
Drought is a complex natural hazard that is poorly understood and difficult to assess. This paper describes a VIC–PDSI model approach to understanding drought in which the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model was combined with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Simulated results obtained using the VIC model were used to replace the output of the more conventional two-layer bucket-type model for hydrological accounting, and a two-class-based procedure for calibrating the characteristic climate coefficient (K j ) was introduced to allow for a more reliable computation of the PDSI. The VIC–PDSI model was used in conjunction with GIS technology to create a new drought assessment index (DAI) that provides a comprehensive overview of drought duration, intensity, frequency, and spatial extent. This new index was applied to drought hazard assessment across six subregions of the whole Loess Plateau. The results show that the DAI over the whole Loess Plateau ranged between 11 and 26 (the greater value of the DAI means the more severe of the drought hazard level). The drought hazards in the upper reaches of Yellow River were more severe than that in the middle reaches. The drought prone regions over the study area were mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolian small rivers, Zuli and Qingshui Rivers basin, while the drought hazards in the drainage area between Hekouzhen–Longmen and Weihe River basin were relatively mild during 1971–2010. The most serious drought vulnerabilities were associated with the area around Lanzhou, Zhongning, and Yinchuan, where the development of water-saving irrigation is the most direct and effective way to defend against and reduce losses from drought. For the relatively humid regions, it will be necessary to establish the rainwater harvesting systems, which could help to relieve the risk of water shortage and guarantee regional food security. Due to the DAI considers the multiple characteristic of drought duration, intensity, frequency, and spatial extent, and because it is based on the VIC–PDSI model and GIS technologies, the DAI could provide some new way on directly comparing the drought hazards over different regions during a long-term period. The result of this study may be useful to decision makers when formulating drought management policies to alleviate the risk of water shortages and guarantee regional food security. 相似文献
16.
The impacts of emissions from industry,power plant,transportation,residential,and biogenic sources on daily maximum surface ozone （O3DM） over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH） region in North China in the summer of 2007 were examined in a modeling study.The modeling system consisted of the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model and the photochemical dispersion model,CAMx.The factor separation technique （FST） was used to quantify the effect of individual emission source types and the synergistic interactions among two or more types.Additionally,the effectiveness of emission reduction scenarios was explored.The industry,power plant,and transportation emission source types were found to be the most important in terms of their individual effects on O3DM.The key contributor to high surface O3 was power plant emissions,with a peak individual effect of 40 ppbv in the southwestern BTH area.The individual effect from the biogenic emission category was quite low.The synergistic effects from the combinations of each pair of anthropogenic emission types suppressed O3 formation,while the synergistic effects for combinations of three were favorable for O3 formation when the industrial and power plant emission source types coexisted.The quadruple synergistic effects were positive only with the combination of power plant,transportation,residential,and biogenic sources,while the quintuple synergistic effect showed only minor impacts on O3DM concentrations.A 30％ reduction in industrial and transportation sources produced the most effective impacts on O3 concentrations,with a maximum decrease of 20 ppbv.These results suggested that the synergistic impacts among emission source types should be considered when formulating emission control strategies for O3 reduction. 相似文献
17.
Jianjun He Sunling Gong Hongli Liu Xingqin An Ye Yu Suping Zhao Lin Wu Congbo Song Chunhong Zhou Jie Wang Chengmei Yin Lijuan Yu 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2017,31(6):1062-1069
To investigate the interannual variations of particulate matter (PM) pollution in winter, this paper examines the pollution characteristics of PM with aerodynamic diameters of less than 2.5 and 10 μm (i.e., PM2.5 and PM10), and their relationship to meteorological conditions over the Beijing municipality, Tianjin municipality, and Hebei Province—an area called Jing–Jin–Ji (JJJ, hereinafter)—in December 2013–16. The meteorological conditions during this period are also analyzed. The regional average concentrations of PM2.5 (PM10) over the JJJ area during this period were 148.6 (236.4), 100.1 (166.4), 140.5 (204.5), and 141.7 (203.1) μg m–3, respectively. The high occurrence frequencies of cold air outbreaks, a strong Siberian high, high wind speeds and boundary layer height, and low temperature and relative humidity, were direct meteorological causes of the low PM concentration in December 2014. A combined analysis of PM pollution and meteorological conditions implied that control measures have resulted in an effective improvement in air quality. Using the same emissions inventory in December 2013–16, a modeling analysis showed emissions of PM2.5 to decrease by 12.7%, 8.6%, and 8.3% in December 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively, each compared with the previous year, over the JJJ area. 相似文献
18.
Results from large-eddy simulations and field measurements have previously shown that the velocity field is influenced by
the boundary layer height, z
i
, during close to neutral, slightly unstable, atmospheric stratification. During such conditions the non-dimensional wind
profile, φ
m
, has been found to be a function of both z/L and z
i
/L. At constant z/L, φ
m
decreases with decreasing boundary layer height. Since φ
m
is directly related to the parameterizations of the air–sea surface fluxes, these results will have an influence when calculating
the surface fluxes in weather and climate models. The global impact of this was estimated using re-analysis data from 1979
to 2001 and bulk parameterizations. The results show that the sum of the global latent and sensible mean heat fluxes increase
by 0.77 W m−2 or about 1% and the mean surface stress increase by 1.4 mN m−2 or 1.8% when including the effects of the boundary layer height in the parameterizations. However, some regions show a larger
response. The greatest impact is found over the tropical oceans between 30°S and 30°N. In this region the boundary layer height
influences the non-dimensional wind profile during extended periods of time. In the mid Indian Ocean this results in an increase
of the mean annual heat fluxes by 2.0 W m−2 and an increase of the mean annual surface stress by 2.6 mN m−2. 相似文献
19.
Courtenay Strong 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(12):3091-3102
Arctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) widths in the Atlantic sector were measured during the months of maximum sea ice extent (February–April) for years 1979–2010 using a novel method based on objective curves through idealized sea ice concentration fields that satisfied Laplace’s equation. Over the record, the Labrador Sea MIZ (MIZL) had an average width of 122 km and narrowed by 28 % while moving 254 km poleward, the Greenland Sea MIZ (MIZG) had an average width of 98 km and narrowed by 43 % while moving 158 km west toward the Greenland coast, and the Barents Sea MIZ (MIZB) had an average width of 136 km and moved 259 km east toward the Eurasian coast without a trend in width. Trends in MIZ position and width were consistent with a warming Arctic and decreasing sea ice concentrations over the record. Beyond the trends, NAO-like atmospheric patterns influenced interannual variability in MIZ position and width: MIZL widened and moved southeast under anomalously strong northerly flow conducive to advection of sea ice into the Labrador Sea, MIZG widened and moved northeast under anomalously weak northerly flow conducive to diminishing the westward component of sea ice drift, and MIZB widened and moved poleward at the expense of pack ice under anomalously strong southwesterly flow conducive to enhancing oceanic heat flux into the Barents Sea. In addition, meridional flow anomalies associated with the NAO per se moved MIZB east and west by modulating sea ice concentration over the Barents Sea. 相似文献
20.
Li Mengmeng Wang Tijian Xie Min Zhuang Bingliang Li Shu Han Yong Cheng Nianliang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,128(3-4):999-1013
Through regulating the land–atmosphere energy balance, urbanization plays an important role in modifying local circulations and cross-border transport of air pollutants. The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) metropolitan area in northern China is frequently influenced by complex atmospheric thermal circulations due to its special topography and geographic position. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model combined with remote sensing is used to explore the urbanization impacts on local circulations in the BTH region. The urban heat island (UHI) effect generated around Beijing and Tianjin shows complex interactions with local thermal circulations. Due to the combined effects of UHI and topography, the UHI circulation around Beijing and valley breeze at the southern slopes of Yan Mountain are coupled together to reinforce each other. At the coastal cities, the increased land/sea temperature gradient considerably accelerates the sea breeze along Bohai Bay and moves the sea breeze front further inland to reach as far as Beijing. This study may lay a foundation for the better understanding of air pollutant dispersion on complex terrain.
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