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1.
The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500?hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973?C1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values. 相似文献
2.
本文利用1951—1980年逐季的平均值资料(共120个季)讨论了北方涛动和与其相联系的北太平洋海温与北半球海平面气压场、500hPa位势高度场遥相关的基本结构,并与南方涛动和赤道东太平洋海温的结果进行了对比分析.发现北太平洋Namias海区和加利福尼亚海流区海温的变化与北方涛动具有很密切的联系;北方涛动和这两个海区的海温同北半球中高纬度大气环流特别是PNA型和NAO型环流异常存在明显的遥相关关系;南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温同WP型或NPO型环流异常关系比较密切,而与PNA型和NAO型的关系不如北方涛动和Namias海区及加利福尼亚海流区海温的显著. 相似文献
3.
To assess the extent to which atmospheric low-frequency variability can be ascribed to internal dynamical causes, two extended
runs (1200 winter seasons) of a three level quasi-geostrophic model have been carried out. In the first experiment the model
was forced by an average forcing field computed from nine winter seasons; in the second experiment we used a periodically
variable forcing in order to simulate a seasonal cycle. The analysis has been focused on the leading Northern Hemisphere teleconnection
patterns, namely the Pacific North American (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns, and on blocking, both
in the Euro-Atlantic and Pacific sectors. The NAO and PNA patterns are realistically simulated by the model; the main difference
with observations is a westward shift of the centres of action of the NAO. Related to this, the region of maximum frequency
of Atlantic blocking is shifted from the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic to its central part. Apart from this shift,
the statistics of blocking frequency and duration compare favourably with their observed counterparts. In particular, the
model exhibits a level of interannual and interdecadal variability in blocking frequency which is (at least) as large as the
observed one, despite the absence of any variability in the atmospheric energy sources and boundary conditions on such time
scales.
Received: 30 January 1997 / Accepted: 17 June 1997 相似文献
4.
This paper demonstrates that an annular mode can be constructed from the combination of the
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) patterns. The quasi-annularity,
meridional dipole and vertical barotropy of the constructed annular mode resemble those of the Atlantic
Oscillation (AO) pattern. It is also a dominant mode in terms of the variance contribution. Moreover, its
temporal correlation with the AO is quite strong. This new annular mode has the advantage over the AO in
that it incorporates a large portion of the PNA and makes the center of action in the Pacific stronger and
more physically relevant than that of the AO. Or, more generally, it may be regarded as a physical mode
unlike the AO. The results of this study also indicate the NAO–PNA perspective contains most of the
information of the AO, whereas the AO perspective only contains about half of the information of the
NAO-PNA. Consequently, the NAO–PNA perspective is regarded by the authors to be more
comprehensive than that of the AO. 相似文献
5.
Climatology and interannual variations of wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency in CCSM3 twentieth century simulation
are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis during 1950–1999. CCSM3 can simulate the storm tracks reasonably well, although
the model produces slightly less cyclones at the beginning of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks and weaker poleward deflection
over the Pacific. As in the reanalysis, frequency of cyclones stronger than 980 hPa shows significant correlation with the
Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern over the Pacific region and with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in
the Atlantic sector. Composite maps are constructed for opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the NAO
and all anomalous patterns coincide with observed. One CCSM3 twenty-first century A1B scenario realization indicates there
is significant increase in the extratropical cyclone frequency on the US west coast and decrease in Alaska. Meanwhile, cyclone
frequency increases from the Great Lakes region to Quebec and decreases over the US east coast, suggesting a possible northward
shift of the Atlantic storm tracks under the warmer climate. The cyclone frequency anomalies are closely linked to changes
in seasonal mean states of the upper-troposphere zonal wind and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere. Due to lack of 6-hourly
outputs, we cannot apply the cyclone-tracking algorithm to the other eight CCSM3 realizations. Based on the linkage between
the mean state change and the cyclone frequency anomalies, it is likely a common feature among the other ensemble members
that cyclone activity is reduced on the East Coast and in Alaska as a result of global warming. 相似文献
6.
The representation of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its relationship with atmospheric blocking and the Atlantic jet stream is investigated in a set of CMIP5 models. It is shown that some state-of-the-art climate models are unable to correctly simulate the physical processes connected to the NAO. This is especially true for models with a strongly underestimated frequency of high-latitude blocking over Greenland. In these models the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of the Euro-Atlantic sector can represent at least three different categories of dominant modes of variability associated with different prevalent regions of blocking occurrence and jet stream displacements. It is therefore possible to show that such “biased NAOs” are connected with different dynamical processes with respect to the canonical NAO seen in observations. Since the NAO is a widely used concept in scientific community, the consequent “dynamical misinterpretation” of the NAO that can result when climate models are analyzed may have important implications for the NAO-related studies. This may be especially relevant for the ones involving climate scenarios, since these modeled NAOs may react differently to greenhouse gas forcing. 相似文献
7.
春季北大西洋三极型海温异常变化及其与NAO和ENSO的联系 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1951—2016年HadISST逐月海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)资料,NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及1958—2016年美国伍兹霍尔海洋研究所(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,WHOI)提供的OAFlux数据集,运用经验正交函数分解(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)和偏相关分析等统计方法,研究了春季北大西洋海温异常的主要特征及其与春季NAO和前期冬季ENSO联系。结果表明:春季北大西洋海温异常EOF的第一模态是自北而南出现的三极结构的海温距平型,其方差贡献率为35.7%。春季北大西洋三极型海温异常的形成主要受到春季NAO主导作用,还受到前期冬季热带中东太平洋海温异常的影响。消除前期冬季Niňo3.4的影响后,春季北大西洋三极型海温异常指数与同期北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)指数的偏相关系数分别为0.50,通过了99%置信度水平的显著性检验。消除春季NAO的影响后,春季北大西洋三极型海温异常指数与前期冬季Niňo3.4指数的偏相关系数为-0.26,通过了95%信度水平的显著性检验。春季NAO正(负)位相引起的海表风场和海表湍流热通量的异常,进而激发出正(负)位相的北大西洋三极型海温异常。前期冬季ENSO事件可以引起春季大气环流异常和热带外海温异常,进而调制春季NAO对北大西洋三极型海温异常的影响。 相似文献
8.
The teleconnections of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in future climate projections are investigated using results of the coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. For this, the IPCC SRES scenario A1B and a quadrupled CO2 simulation are considered. It is found that changes of the mean state in the tropical Pacific are likely to condition ENSO teleconnections in the Pacific North America (PNA) region and in the North Atlantic European (NAE) region. With increasing greenhouse gas emissions the changes of the mean states in the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific are El Niño-like in this particular model. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are increased predominantly in its eastern part and redistribute the precipitation further eastward. The dynamical response of the atmosphere is such that the equatorial east–west (Walker) circulation and the eastern Pacific inverse Hadley circulation are decreased. Over the subtropical East Pacific and North Atlantic the 200 hPa westerly wind is substantially increased. Composite maps of different climate parameters for positive and negative ENSO events are used to reveal changes of the ENSO teleconnections. Mean sea level pressure and upper tropospheric zonal winds indicate an eastward shift of the well-known teleconnection patterns in the PNA region and an increasing North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) like response over the NAE region. Surface temperature and precipitation underline this effect, particularly over the North Pacific and the central North Atlantic. Moreover, in the NAE region the 200 hPa westerly wind is increasingly related to the stationary wave activity. Here the stationary waves appear NAO-like. 相似文献
9.
The linkage between the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this study, using the ECMWF reanalysis data, the possible linkage between the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during boreal winter (December– February) is investigated. The PNA and the NAO pattern are obtained by performing Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis on an anomalous daily mean 300-hPa geopotential height field. The composite daily NAO indices show that the NAO indices are prone to be negative (positive) when the conte... 相似文献
10.
S. Hetzinger J. Halfar J. V. Mecking N. S. Keenlyside A. Kronz R. S. Steneck W. H. Adey P. A. Lebednik 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(6):1447-1455
Decadal- to multidecadal variability in the extra-tropical North Pacific is evident in 20th century instrumental records and has significant impacts on Northern Hemisphere climate and marine ecosystems. Several studies have discussed a potential linkage between North Pacific and Atlantic climate on various time scales. On decadal time scales no relationship could be confirmed, potentially due to sparse instrumental observations before 1950. Proxy data are limited and no multi-centennial high-resolution marine geochemical proxy records are available from the subarctic North Pacific. Here we present an annually-resolved record (1818–1967) of Mg/Ca variations from a North Pacific/Bering Sea coralline alga that extends our knowledge in this region beyond available data. It shows for the first time a statistically significant link between decadal fluctuations in sea-level pressure in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The record is a lagged proxy for decadal-scale variations of the Aleutian Low. It is significantly related to regional sea surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in late boreal winter on these time scales. Our data show that on decadal time scales a weaker Aleutian Low precedes a negative NAO by several years. This atmospheric link can explain the coherence of decadal North Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, as suggested by earlier studies using climate models and limited instrumental data. 相似文献
11.
利用一个全球海气耦合模式(BCM),结合观测资料,讨论了热带太平洋强迫对北大西洋年际气候变率的影响。研究表明,BCM能够相对合理地模拟赤道太平洋的年际变率模态及相应的海温距平型和大气遥相关型,尽管其准3年的振荡周期过于规则。来自数值模式和观测上的证据都表明,北大西洋冬季海温的主导性变率模态,即自北而南出现的“- -”的海温距平型,受到来自热带太平洋强迫的显著影响,其正位相与赤道中东太平洋冷事件相对应。换言之,赤道太平洋暖事件的发生,在太平洋-北美沿岸激发出PNA遥相关型,进而通过在北大西洋产生类似NAO负位相的气压距平型,削弱本来与NAO正位相直接联系的三核型海温距平。北大西洋三核型海温距平对热带太平洋强迫的响应,要滞后2—3个月的时间。 相似文献
12.
Dominant patterns of winter surface air temperature over Central Asia and their connection with atmospheric circulation 
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下载免费PDF全文 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(6):100210
The dominant patterns of the winter (December–February) surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs) over Central Asia (CA) are investigated in this study. The first two leading modes revealed by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis represent the patterns by explaining 74% of the total variance. The positive phase of EOF1 is characterized by a monopole pattern, corresponding to cold SATAs over CA, while the positive phase of EOF2 shows a meridional dipole pattern with warm and cold SATAs over northern and southern CA. EOF1 is mainly modulated by the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the troposphere, and the negative AO phase may be caused by the downward propagation of the precursory anomalies of the stratospheric polar vortex. EOF2 is mainly influenced by the Ural blocking pattern and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The SATAs associated with EOF2 can be attributed to a dipole-like pattern of geopotential height anomalies over CA. The dipole-like pattern is mainly caused by the Ural blocking pattern, and the NAO can also contribute to the northern part of the dipole.摘要本文利用经验正交函数分解方法 (Empirical orthogonal function, EOF) , 针对1979–2019年冬季 (12月–2月) 中亚地区地面气温异常进行了研究. 结果表明, 中亚地区冬季地面气温异常的前两个EOF模态解释方差总占比可达74%. 其中, 第一模态 (EOF1) 正位相为一致型变化, 对应中亚地区气温冷异常; 第二模态 (EOF2) 正位相则为南北偶极型变化, 对应于中亚地区南冷北暖型气温异常. EOF1可能受到冬季北极涛动 (Arctic Oscillation, AO) 负位相的调制, 而AO的负位相则可能来自于前期平流层极涡正位势高度异常下传. EOF2则可能受到乌拉尔山阻塞及冬季北大西洋涛动 (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) 的共同调制. 乌拉尔山阻塞可引起中亚区域南北偶极型气温异常, 而冬季NAO可对该偶极型气温异常的北侧产生贡献. 相似文献
13.
J. Garc��a-Serrano B. Rodr��guez-Fonseca I. Blad�� P. Zurita-Gotor A. de la C��mara 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(9-10):1727-1743
The dominant variability modes of the North Atlantic-European rotational flow are examined by applying a principal component analysis (PCA/EOF) to the 200?hPa streamfunction mid-winter anomalies (Jan?CFeb monthly means). The results reveal that, when this norm is used, the leading mode (EOF1) does not correspond to the traditional North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, which appears in our analysis as the second leading mode, EOF2) but is the local manifestation of the leading hemispheric streamfunction EOF. The regression of this regional mode onto the global SST field exhibits a clear El Ni?o signature, with no signal over the Atlantic, while the associated upper height anomalies resemble the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern. East of North America, this TNH-like wavetrain produces a meridional dipole-like pattern at lower levels. Although in some ways this pattern resembles the NAO (EOF2), the dynamics of these two modes are very different in that only EOF2 is associated with a latitudinal shift of the North Atlantic stormtrack. Thus, the choice of the streamfunction norm in the EOF analysis allows the separation of two different phenomena that can produce similar dipolar surface pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic but that have different impact on European climate. These two modes also differ on their contribution to variability at lower levels: while NAO-EOF2 is mostly confined to the North Atlantic, TNH-EOF1 has a more annular, global character. At upper levels NAO-EOF2 also produces a global pattern but with no annular structure, reminiscent of the ??circumglobal?? teleconnection. 相似文献
14.
North Atlantic decadal regimes in a coupled GCM simulation 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
The non-stationarity of the North Atlantic atmosphere-ocean coupling is investigated utilizing a long time integration of
a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) and a consistent atmospheric experiment forced by the climatological
sea surface temperature (SST) of the coupled GCM. The temporal behavior of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is non-stationary
with two different decadal regimes being identified: (a) phases with enhanced (active) low-frequency variability of the NAO
index are characterized by regional modes with a baroclinic Pacific-North America (PNA) and a dominant barotropic North Atlantic pattern; (b) in phases with
reduced (passive) low-frequency variability a global mode connects tropics and midlatitudes. The characteristic space scales are similar in the coupled and the consistent atmospheric
experiment; the time scales of the atmospheric eigenmodes are modified by ocean dynamics. In the active (passive) phase the
corresponding atmospheric mode is reinforced by the North Atlantic (tropical Pacific) SST.
Received: 15 September 2000 / Accepted: 30 March 2001 相似文献
15.
Yoo-Geun Ham Mi-Kyung Sung Soon-Il An Siegfried D. Schubert Jong-Seong Kug 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2014,50(3):247-261
The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM). 相似文献
16.
Ivana Tošić Ivana Hrnjak Milivoj B. Gavrilov Miroslava Unkašević Slobodan B. Marković Tin Lukić 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(1-2):331-341
Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation observed at 92 stations in Vojvodina (Serbia) were analyzed during the period 1946–2006. The rainfall series were examined by means of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The first set of singular vectors explains from 68.8 % (in summer) to 81.8 % (in winter) of the total variance. The temporal variability of the time series associated with the main EOF configurations (the principal components, PCs) was examined using the Mann–Kendall test and the spectral analysis. The time series of PC1 revealed decreasing trend in the winter and spring precipitation and increasing trend in the autumn, summer, and annual precipitation. The relationships between the first PC and circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, were also investigated. The PC1, displaying temporal behavior of the first mode, demonstrated evident correspondence with the NAO index in analysis of the annual, winter, and autumn precipitation. Power spectra of the PC1 show statistically significant oscillations of about 3.3 years for the spring precipitation and about 8 and 15 years for the winter precipitation. Comparisons with spectral analysis of authors for some regions in Europe, most of them in the Mediterranean domain, show that similar periodicities are detected. 相似文献
17.
Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
The winter climatology of Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity was derived from 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the
period from 1958 to 1999, using software which provides improved accuracy in cyclone identification in comparison to numerical
tracking schemes. Cyclone characteristics over the Kuroshio and Gulfstream are very different to those over continental North
America and the Arctic. Analysis of Northern Hemisphere cyclones shows secular and decadal-scale changes in cyclone frequency,
intensity, lifetime and deepening rates. The western Pacific and Atlantic are characterized by an increase in cyclone intensity
and deepening during the 42-year period, although the eastern Pacific and continental North America demonstrate opposite tendencies
in most cyclone characteristics. There is an increase of the number of cyclones in the Arctic and in the western Pacific and
a downward tendency over the Gulf Stream and subpolar Pacific. Decadal scale variability in cyclone activity over the Atlantic
and Pacific exhibits south-north dipole-like patterns. Atlantic and Pacific cyclone activity associated with the NAO and PNA
is analyzed. Atlantic cyclone frequency demonstrates a high correlation with NAO and reflects the NAO shift in the mid 1970s,
associated with considerable changes in European storm tracks. The PNA is largely linked to the eastern Pacific cyclone frequencies,
and controls cyclone activity over the Gulf region and the North American coast during the last two decades. Assessment of
the accuracy of the results and comparison with those derived using numerical algorithms, shows that biases inherent in numerical
procedures are not negligible.
Received: 7 July 2000 / Accepted: 30 November 2000 相似文献
18.
The Circum-Pacific Teleconnection Pattern in meridional wind in the high troposphere 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
WANG Huijun 《大气科学进展》2005,22(3):463-466
The Circum-Pacific Teleconnection Pattern (CPTP) is revealed in the meridional wind in the high troposphere via an emprirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation analysis on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The CPTP is found to be composed of the North Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), the South Pacific-South American teleconnection pattern (PSA), and the teleconnection patterns over the tropical western Pacific and the tropical eastern Pacific (or, Central America, or, tropical Atlantic). There is substantial interannual variability of the CPTP and a typical CPTP can be detected in some years. It is speculated that the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial region in the western and eastern sides of the Pacific may play a role in linking the two hemispheres. The anomalous convection activities in the Tropics are plausible triggering factors for the zonal wind anomalies that are responsible for the composition of the CPTP. 相似文献
19.
北半球冬半年遥相关型强度指数的年际变化特征及其与厄尔尼诺的遥响应 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
计算了1951—1990年冬半年逐月以及冬季的PNA、WA、WP、EA、EU型的遥相关强度指数。在此基础上,研究了它们的气候变化特征以及这5个遥相关型强度指数与厄尔尼诺的关系。指出,厄尔尼诺发展的盛期(冬季),以北半球西太平洋型(WP)明显偏弱为主要特征,其次才是太平洋北美型(PNA)偏强。1991年发生的一次厄尔尼诺,在盛期是弱PNA型,弱WP型。此外,还研究了遥相关强度指数用于天气预报的问题。 相似文献
20.
冬季中高纬500hPa高度和海表温度异常特征及其相关分析 总被引：6，自引：4，他引：6
用旋转主分量（ＲＰＣ）方法，分析１９４８年到１９８８年４０个冬季的中高纬５００ｈＰａ高度场以及全球海表温度异常（ＳＳＴＡ）场的最主要的时空分布特征。然后通过交叉相关来讨论海气的同期相关特征。结果显示，冬季中高纬５００ｈＰａ高度场最明显的异常型分别是太平洋北美型（ＰＮＡ），西太平洋型（ＷＰ），西大西洋型（ＷＡ）以及东大西洋欧亚型（ＥＡＥＵ）。冬季ＳＳＴＡ最明显的区域是赤道东太平洋（ＥＥＰ）和赤道大西洋（ＥＡＬ）。其次是中纬度东北太平洋（ＮＥＰ）及两大洋西部（ＮＷＰ和ＮＷＡ）。中高纬度海气之间有很好的相关。与中高纬度５００ｈＰａ高度场ＰＮＡ型明显相关的是中高纬度东北太平洋（ＮＥＰ）和赤道东太平洋（ＥＥＰ）的ＳＳＴＡ。前者的强相关中心在中高纬；后者的强相关中心在中低纬。而与ＷＡ型明显相关的是中高纬度北大西洋的ＳＳＴＡ。中高纬度海气之间最强的相关在海气异常对应的空间位置上。而且这种区域性或邻域性的海气相关呈正相关，暖ＳＳＴＡ对应于正高度异常，冷ＳＳＴＡ对应于负高度异常 相似文献