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1.
Feeling affected by climate change related disasters has the potential to mobilize belief in climate change, concern about the issue, and support for mitigation policies – even when accounting for the effects of physically living through a disaster. In this study we use a two-wave survey design where respondents in the United States were interviewed before and after Hurricane Florence to better understand who feels affected by such disasters. First, we find that being worried about climate change increases the feeling of being affected by the hurricane among those who regularly discuss climate change. Second, we find that those who are high in perspective taking are more likely to feel affected. However, those who are high in empathic concern, but feel obligated to help victims of disasters, are less likely to feel affected. This suggests that hurricanes may cause a collapse of compassion, where those who are especially sensitive to the suffering of others down-regulate their emotional response to costly disasters. 相似文献
2.
Although climate change is an urgent problem, behavioural and policy responses have not yet been sufficient to either reduce the volume of greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to a disrupted climate system. Significant efforts have been made to raise public awareness of the dangers posed by climate change. One reason why these efforts might not be sufficient is rooted in people’s need to feel efficacy to solve complex problems; the belief that climate change is unstoppable might thwart action even among the concerned. This paper tests for the effect of fatalistic beliefs on behavioural change and willingness to pay to address climate change using two cross-national surveys representing over 50,000 people in 48 nations.
Key policy insights
The perception that climate change poses a risk or danger increases the likelihood of behavioural change and willingness to pay to address climate change.
The belief that climate change is unstoppable reduces the behavioural and policy response to climate change and moderates risk perception.
Communicators and policy leaders should carefully frame climate change as a difficult, yet solvable, problem to circumvent fatalistic beliefs.
3.
James S. Risbey 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):527-536
Abstract The UNFCCC has set the objective of preventing ‘dangerous’ climate change. The concept of climate change being ‘dangerous’ has generally been interpreted to mean that there are thresholds below which the planet is ‘safe’ and above which it is in danger. This creates the fiction that danger can be averted, when that is largely a matter of perspective. Policies based on fictions can succeed if the major parties are willing to go along with them, but this is not the case at present. It is dangerous to try and motivate the public on the basis of a patent fiction, since that obscures policy-critical ignorance and may ultimately create more brittle political frameworks. An alternative to maintaining the fiction is to acknowledge at the outset the arbitrary and conditional nature of any specific choice or definition of what is ‘dangerous’ climate change and what is not. Although our choices are somewhat arbitrary, they can be informed by a range of analytical perspectives, and the decisions we reach have real import. In this setting, we need a way to provide order to (arbitrary) choices that draws on what is known, but still acknowledges the conditional nature of the choices. It is argued here that the aesthetic realm may be suited to this need. 相似文献
4.
The world is generally becoming less violent, but the debate on climate change raises the specter of a new source of instability and conflict. In this field, the policy debate is running well ahead of its academic foundation—and sometimes even contrary to the best evidence. Although comparative research on security implications of climate change is rapidly expanding, major gaps in knowledge still exist. Taken together, extant studies provide mostly inconclusive insights, with contradictory or weak demonstrated effects of climate variability and change on armed conflict. This article reviews the empirical literature on short-term climate/environmental change and intrastate conflict, with special attention to possible insecurity consequences of precipitation and temperature anomalies and weather-related natural disasters. Based on this assessment, it outlines priorities for future research in this area. 相似文献
5.
Social marketing is the systematic application of marketing concepts and techniques to achieve specific behavioural goals relevant to the social good. Social marketing approaches are becoming increasingly popular among governmental and non-governmental actors seeking to engage the public on climate change. The effectiveness of social marketing in achieving specific behavioural goals is empirically well-supported. However, in the first systematic critique of social marketing as a strategy for engaging the public on climate change, we present evidence that social marketing alone is insufficient to build support for the more ambitious policy changes and interventions that constitute a proportional response to climate change. In some circumstances, social marketing approaches may even be counterproductive. We describe some alternative approaches for engaging the public, which may provide governmental and non-governmental actors with additional or preferable tools for promoting public engagement with climate change. Given the scale of the challenge, it seems critical that those seeking to engage the public are equipped with the most effective strategies available - a goal that this paper seeks to contribute to. We conclude that acknowledging the limitations of social marketing - and exploring alternative methods of engaging the public - is an urgent task for climate change communication researchers and practitioners. 相似文献
6.
Manfred Lenzen Roberto Schaeffer Jonas Karstensen Glen P. Peters 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):815-824
Brazil’s economic development has been underpinned by a diverse and – in a global comparison – unusual set of energy carriers, notably hydroelectricity and ethanol from sugar cane. Its energy mix makes Brazil one of the least energy-related carbon-intensive economies worldwide. Given that the country is fast becoming one of the world’s economic powerhouses, decision-makers need to understand the drivers underlying past and current carbon dioxide emissions trends. We therefore investigate a) which key long-term drivers have led to Brazil’s unique emissions profile, and b) the implications of these drivers for Brazil’s national policies. We show that Brazil’s emissions are growing mainly due to increasing individual standards of living, exports and population size, and that this growth is so far unchallenged by technological and structural improvements toward lower emissions intensities and more efficient production structures. As these trends are likely to continue amidst growing international pressure on key economies to reduce their carbon emissions, a decoupling of drivers from emissions is needed to simultaneously meet development and environmental goals. 相似文献
7.
Adaptation of California’s electricity sector to climate change 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Edward Vine 《Climatic change》2012,111(1):75-99
Climate change is likely to pose considerable new challenges to California’s electricity sector. This paper primarily focuses
on the adaptation challenges of an important component of the energy arena: electricity demand in the residential and commercial
sectors and electricity supply. The primary challenge to California’s electricity sector will likely be the increase in demand
for air conditioning as a result of rising temperatures. In addition, renewable energy sources, which are an increasing share
of the electricity portfolio, are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Many of the key players have been actively considering
the implications of climate change. Because electricity generation accounts for nearly 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, this
sector has been a target of the state’s efforts to reduce emissions. Fortunately, many of the same tools can simultaneously
improve the sector’s resilience to a changing climate. Demand management strategies and supply diversification are both important
strategies. Local governments can play a central role in encouraging the adoption of more energy efficient building codes
and the use of more renewable sources, such as solar energy. The positive steps taken by many local governments are encouraging.
Steps to increase public awareness are an important, often missing component, however. Increases in research, development,
and demonstration to improve system resiliency and develop new energy conservation tools are also needed. 相似文献
8.
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10.
Francisco Estrada Benjamín Martínez-López Cecilia Conde Carlos Gay-García 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):1029-1046
This paper presents a review of the methodology applied for generating the regional climate change scenarios utilized in important National Documents of Mexico, such as the Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Fourth National Report to the Convention on Biological Diversity and The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico. It is shown that these regional climate change scenarios, which are one of the main inputs to support the assessments presented in these documents, are an example of the erroneous use of statistical downscaling techniques. The arguments presented here imply that the work based on such scenarios should be revised and therefore, these documents are inadequate for supporting national decision- making. 相似文献
11.
Alexandros P. Dimitrakopoulos M. Vlahou Ch. G. Anagnostopoulou I. D. Mitsopoulos 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):331-347
An increasing trend and a statistically significant positive correlation between wildfire occurrence, area burned and drought (as expressed by the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) have been observed all over Greece, during the period 1961?C1997. In the more humid and colder regions (Northern and Western Greece) the number of fires and area burned were positively correlated to both summer (SPI6_October) and annual drought (SPI12_September), whereas in the relatively more dry and hot regions (Southern and Central Greece) the number of fires and area burned were correlated only to summer drought. In 1978, Greece entered a period of prolonged drought, possibly as a result of the global climatic change. Data analysis of the period 1978?C1997 revealed a statistically significant increase in the mean annual number of fires, the area burned and the summer and annual drought episodes in the relatively more humid and colder regions (Northern and Western) of Greece (which in the past were characterized by less fires and area burned) compared to the more dry and hot regions (Southern and Eastern Greece), which always presented high fire activity. Additionally, analyzing the two sub-periods (1961?C1977, 1978?C1997) separately, drought was significantly correlated only to fire occurrence during the years 1961?C1977, whereas during 1978?C1997 drought was significantly correlated mainly to area burned. It became obvious that drought episodes, although they are not solely responsible for fire occurrence and area burned, they exert an increasingly significant impact on wildfire activity in Greece. 相似文献
12.
13.
Climate change in Hispañola is studied since 1900 using a variety of datasets. The longer station-observed temperature record has a significant trend of 0.012 °C/year, while the shorter reanalysis datasets exhibit faster warming, suggesting accelerating greenhouse radiative absorption and Hadley circulation. Rainfall trends are insignificant in the observed period, but a CMIP5 model simulation predicts a significant drying trend. The spatial pattern of climate trends was mapped with reanalysis fields and indicates a faster rate of warming over the eastern half of the island, where observations are dense and the drying trend is greatest. Northeasterly trade winds strengthen on the Atlantic side of the island. While trends intensify in the satellite era compared to the earlier 20th century, part of that effect is ascribed to an upturn in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. 相似文献
14.
气候变化是当前世界面临的巨大挑战,应对气候变化需要国际间合作已成为普遍共识。IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第三工作组(WGⅢ)报告第十四章回顾了IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)以来气候变化国际合作的进展,基于所提出的评价体系对进展进行了系统评估。报告认为,AR5以来气候变化国际合作最重要的进展是基于《巴黎协定》建立的以国家自主贡献为核心的全球行动模式;除《巴黎协定》外,国际上也形成了多种形式的合作机制,其中,气候俱乐部是国际气候合作研究的新热点。对于《巴黎协定》的有效性,目前国际社会存在正反两种观点,并认为《巴黎协定》能否达成既定目标取决于是否有能力强化全球下一步的集体气候行动目标和实施。 相似文献
15.
The number of climate change laws in major economies has grown from less than 40 in 1997 to almost 500 at the end of 2013. The passage of these laws is influenced by both domestic and international factors. This article reviews the main international factors, drawing on a powerful new dataset of climate legislation in 66 national jurisdictions. We find that the propensity to legislate on climate change is heavily influenced by the passage of similar laws elsewhere, suggesting a strong and so far under-appreciated role for international policy diffusion. International treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol work in two ways. The impact of the Kyoto Protocol itself is limited to countries with formal obligations under the treaty. In addition, the prestige of hosting an international climate summit is associated with a subsequent boost in legislation. Legislators seem to respond to the expectations of climate leadership that these events bestow on their host.
Policy relevance
A global solution to climate change will ultimately have to be anchored in domestic legislation, which creates the legal basis for countries to take action. Countries are passing climate legislation in a growing number. This article asks to what extent they are motivated to do so by international factors, such as existing treaty obligations. We find that the Kyoto Protocol has been a less important factor in explaining climate legislation outside Annex I than the passage of similar laws elsewhere. This suggests that international policy diffusion plays an important and so far under-appreciated role in global climate policy, complementing formal treaty obligations. 相似文献
16.
Stacy Rosenberg Arnold Vedlitz Deborah F. Cowman Sammy Zahran 《Climatic change》2010,101(3-4):311-329
Climate scientists have played a significant role in investigating global climate change. In the USA, a debate has swirled about whether a consensus on climate change exists among reputable scientists and this has entered the policy process. In order to better understand the views of US climate scientists, we conducted an empirical survey of US climate scientists (N?=?468) in 2005, and compared the results with the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science report and policy summaries. Our results reveal that survey respondents generally agree about the nature, causes, and consequences of climate change, and are in agreement with IPCC findings. We also found that there is strong support for a variety of policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 相似文献
17.
Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Temesgen Tadesse Deressa Rashid M. Hassan Claudia Ringler Tekie Alemu Mahmud Yesuf 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(2):248-255
This study identifies the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the factors that affect their choice of method, and the barriers to adaptation. The methods identified include use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early and late planting, and irrigation. Results from the discrete choice model employed indicate that the level of education, gender, age, and wealth of the head of household; access to extension and credit; information on climate, social capital, agroecological settings, and temperature all influence farmers’ choices. The main barriers include lack of information on adaptation methods and financial constraints. 相似文献
18.
We analyze climate change in a cost–benefit framework, using the emission and concentration profiles of Wigley et al. (Nature
379(6562):240–243, 1996). They present five scenarios that cover the period 1990–2300 and are designed to reach stabilized concentration levels of
350, 450, 550, 650 and 750 ppmv, respectively. We assume that the damage cost in each year t is proportional to the corresponding gross world product and the square of the atmospheric temperature increase (ΔT(t)). The latter is estimated with a simple two-box model (representing the atmosphere and deep ocean). Coupling the damage
cost with the abatement cost, we interpolate between the five scenarios to find the one that is optimal in the sense of minimizing
the sum of discounted annual (abatement plus damage) costs over a time horizon of N years. Our method is simpler than ‘traditional’ models with the same purpose, and thus allows for a more transparent sensitivity
study with respect to the uncertainties of all parameters involved. We report our central result in terms of the stabilized
emission level E
o
and concentration level p
o
(i.e. their values at t = 300 years) of the optimal scenario. For the central parameter values (that is, N = 150 years, a discount rate r
dis
= 2%/year and a growth rate r
gro
= 1%/year of gross world product) we find E
o
= 8.0 GtCO2/year and p
o
= 496 ppmv. Varying the parameters over a wide range, we find that the optimal emission level remains within a remarkably
narrow range, from about 6.0 to 12 GtCO2/year for all plausible parameter values. To assess the significance of the uncertainties we focus on the social cost penalty,
defined as the extra cost incurred by society relative to the optimum if one makes the wrong choice of the emission level
as a result of erroneous damage and abatement cost estimates. In relative terms the cost penalty turns out to be remarkably
insensitive to errors. For example, if the true damage costs are three times larger or smaller than the estimate, the total
social cost of global climate change increases by less than 20% above its minimum at the true optimal emission level. Because
of the enormous magnitude of the total costs involved with climate change (mitigation), however, even a small relative error
implies large additional expenses in absolute terms. To evaluate the benefit of reducing cost uncertainties, we plot the cost
penalty as function of the uncertainty in relative damage and abatement costs, expressed as geometric standard deviation and
standard deviation respectively. If continued externality analysis reduces the geometric standard deviation of relative damage
cost estimates from 5 to 4, the benefit is 0.05% of the present value G
tot
of total gross word product over 150 years (about $3.9 × 1015), and if further research reduces the standard deviation of relative abatement costs from 1 to 0.5, the benefit is 0.03%
of G
tot
. 相似文献
19.
Naomi Oreskes 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):559-560